debt statistics – november 2016

Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration

DEBT STATISTICS – November 2017


2

Contents

Page 3 Debt Stock of the Republic of Serbia on November 30, 2017.

Page 4Analysis of Debt Stock of the Republic of Serbia from the end of year 2000 till

November 2017

Page 5 Public Debt to GDP ratio

Page 6 Currency Structure

Page 7 Interest Rate Structure

Page 8 Local Government Debt Structure

Page 9 Local Government Debt – FX and Interest Rate Structure

Page 10 Local Government Debt – Creditors Structure

Page 11 Local Government Debt – Risk Indicators


3

Debt stock of the Republic of Serbia

PUBLIC DEBT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

DEBT STOCK OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA ON NOVEMBER 30, 2017

In Thousands In Million

A. Direct Liabilities EUR USD RSD

I - Total Domestic Debt (direct liabilities) 9,195,120 10,910,929 1,098,034

II - Total External Debt (direct liabilities) 12,424,682 14,743,125 1,483,692

IBRD 2,135,627 2,534,134 255,026

IDA 319,237 378,807 38,122

EIB 1,088,714 1,291,867 130,009

EBRD 80,246 95,220 9,583

CEB 73,090 86,728 8,728

Foreign Government loans 2,974,679 3,529,753 355,221

Eurobonds 3,792,348 4,500,000 452,863

KfW Development Bank 89,909 106,686 10,736

Paris and London Club of Creditors 1,325,254 1,572,547 158,255

European Union 81,967 97,262 9,788

IMF 463,610 550,120 55,362

Commercial Bank loans 0 0 0

Total Direct Liabilities (I + II) 21,619,802 25,654,054 2,581,726

B. Contingent Liabilities EUR USD RSD

III - Total Domestic Debt (contingent liabilities) 232,114 275,426 27,718

IV - Total External Debt (contingent liabilities) 1,594,148 1,891,616 190,365

EBRD 497,325 590,126 59,388

EIB 779,276 924,689 93,057

KfW 79,005 93,748 9,434

European Union 0 0 0

EUROFIMA 36,802 43,670 4,395

IDA 11,885 14,103 1,419

Japan International Cooperation Agency - JICA 28,950 34,352 3,457

Foreign Government loans 29,277 34,740 3,496

Commercial Bank loans 131,627 156,189 15,718

Total Contingent Liabilities (III + IV) 1,826,262 2,167,042 218,083

C. Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt EUR USD RSD

V - Total Domestic Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt 226,596 268,879 27,059

VI - Total External Non-Guaranteed Local Government Debt 104,984 124,574 12,537

Total Non-Guaranteed Debt (V + VI) 331,580 393,453 39,596

Central Government Debt (A + B) 23,446,064 27,821,096 2,799,809

General Government Debt (A + B + C) 23,777,644 28,214,549 2,839,405


4

Analysis of debt stock of the Republic of Serbia:

Central Government

Millions EUR

PUBLIC DEBT OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

ANALYSIS OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEBT STOCK OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA FROM THE END OF YEAR 2000 TILL NOVEMBER 2017

А. DIRECT LIABILITIES

31/12/00 31/12/01 31/12/02 31/12/03 31/12/04 31/12/05 31/12/06 31/12/07 31/12/08 31/12/09 31/12/10 31/12/11 31/12/12 31/12/13 31/12/14 31/12/15 31/12/16 30/11/17

Domestic Debt 4,108 3,871 4,152 4,240 4,064 4,255 3,837 3,413 3,162 4,050 4,572 5,441 6,496 7,055 8,225 9,051 8,768 9,195

External Debt 10,059 9,561 7,230 6,564 5,267 5,364 4,746 4,616 4,691 4,409 5,873 7,239 8,621 10,245 11,992 13,362 13,908 12,425

Total Direct Liabilities 14,167 13,432 11,382 10,803 9,331 9,620 8,583 8,029 7,853 8,459 10,444 12,679 15,117 17,299 20,217 22,413 22,677 21,620

B. CONTINGENT LIABILITIES

Domestic Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 135 340 536 723 857 687 608 382 232

External Debt 0 2 147 220 344 663 769 846 929 1,257 1,372 1,574 1,878 1,985 1,858 1,790 1,763 1,594

Total Contingent Liabilities 0 2 147 220 344 663 769 846 929 1,392 1,712 2,110 2,600 2,842 2,545 2,397 2,144 1,826

Total Central Government Debt 14,167 13,434 11,529 11,023 9,676 10,283 9,352 8,875 8,781 9,851 12,157 14,789 17,717 20,141 22,762 24,810 24,822 23,446


5

Public Debt to GDP ratio:

Central Government

Central Government

Debt/GDP (%)

YEAR

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Nov 2017

201.2 97.7 68.3 61.7 52.6 50.2 35.9 29.9 28.3 32.8 41.8 45.4 56.2 59.6 70.4 74.7 71.9 62.6

201.2

97.7

68.361.7

52.6 50.2

35.929.9 28.3 32.8

41.8 45.456.2 59.6

70.4 74.7 71.962.6

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Nov

2017

In p

erce

nta

ge


6

* GBP, JPY, DKK, SEK, NOK

Currency structure

Central Government Level General Government Level

Currency Amount in RSDShare of outstanding

debt %

RSD 645,000,871,434 23.04%

EUR 1,170,499,749,250 41.81%

USD 818,518,580,234 29.23%

CHF 13,246,675,454 0.47%

SDR 94,902,968,788 3.39%

Other * 57,640,527,821 2.06%

Total 2,799,809,372,980 100%

Currency Amount in RSDShare of outstanding

debt %

RSD 652,184,238,115 22.97%

EUR 1,202,831,019,788 42.36%

USD 818,518,580,234 28.83%

CHF 13,327,632,856 0.47%

SDR 94,902,968,788 3.34%

Other * 57,640,527,821 2.03%

Total 2,839,404,967,601 100%

RSD

23.0%

EUR

41.8%

USD

29.2%

CHF

0.5%

SDR

3.4%

Other *

2.1%

RSD

23.0%

EUR

42.4%

USD

28.8%

CHF

0.5%

SDR

3.3%

Other *

2.0%


7

Interest rate structure:

Central Government

•other interest rates that forms depending on interest rates of Securities

(T-bills) of most developed countries.

Currency RSD

Total Central Government Debt 2,799,809,372,980

Fixed Interest Rates 2,232,738,100,840

Variable Interest Rates 567,071,272,140

EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 422,206,755,689

LIBOR USD 53,474,586,789

LIBOR CHF 8,851,912,054

LIBOR GBP 553,170,536

LIBOR JPY 758,226,158

STIBOR 341,804,433

NIBOR 555,308,482

CIBOR 722,385,857

BELIBOR

Key Policy Rate 12,216,445,000

SDR Interest Rate 55,361,968,511

Аustrian market interest rate and other KFW rates* 12,028,708,632

Total Central Government Debt 100.00%

Fixed Interest Rates 79.75%

Variable Interest Rates 20.25%

EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 15.08%

LIBOR USD 1.91%

LIBOR CHF 0.32%

LIBOR GBP 0.02%

LIBOR JPY 0.03%

STIBOR 0.01%

NIBOR 0.02%

CIBOR 0.03%

BELIBOR

Key Policy Rate 0.44%

SDR Interest Rate 1.98%

Аustrian market interest rate and other KFW rates* 0.43%

EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR 74.45%

LIBOR USD 9.43%

LIBOR CHF 1.56%

Other variable interest rates 14.56%

Total 100.00%

80%

20%

Interest Rate Structure on the 30 of

November 2017

Fixed Interest Rates Variable Interest Rates

74%

9%

2%15%

Variable Interest Rate Structure

on the 30 of November 2017

EURIBOR and LIBOR EUR LIBOR USD

LIBOR CHF Other variable interest rates

Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia – Public Debt Administration

8

Local Government Debt Stock and Structure

Local Government Debt trends Guaranteed Vs Non-Guaranteed Debt

Domestic Vs. External Debt In Percentage of GDP

109.9

124.4131.1 128.5 132.6 132.9 134.5

99.8

93.1107.8

118.1 117.3123.7 125.4 127.6

93.3

17.226.6

35.9 38.4 41.9 46.451.9

25.3

76.081.2 82.2 78.9 81.9 79.0

75.7 68.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

In R

SD

bn

Contracted Amount Withdrawed Amount Repaid Amount Debt Stock

21.7

26.929.5 29.3 29.6 30.3 30.4

28.4

54.2 54.4 52.749.6

52.348.7

45.4

39.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

In R

SD

bn

Guaranteed Debt Non-Guaranteed Debt

37.339.6 39.6

36.2 36.4 34.032.1

27.1

38.641.6

42.6 42.745.5 44.9 43.7

41.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

In R

SD

bn

Total Domestic Debt Total Foreign Debt

2.12% 2.10% 2.12%1.97% 2.05%

1.90%1.83%

1.52%1.51%1.40% 1.36%

1.24% 1.31%1.17%

1.09%0.89%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

Total Local Government Debt O/W Non-Guaranteed Debt


9

Local Government Debt – FX and Interest Rate Structure

Currency compositon – in RSD bn Interest Rate structure

EUR/RSD and CHF/RSD Exchange Rate Compositon of Variable Interest Rates

57.5 64.1 64.5 63.2 66.4 65.3 64.1 60.8

18.0 16.8 17.4 15.4 15.3 13.5 11.5 7.20.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CHF RSD EUR

17.3

35.7 37.1 36.1 38.1 39.136.6

34.0

58.6

45.5 45.142.8 43.8

39.9 39.1

34.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

In R

SD

bn

Fixed Rate Variable Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

In R

SD

bn

Euribor Libor Belibor NBS Key Policy Rate Reference Consumer Price Index Others

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

EURRSD NBSA Curncy CHFRSD NBSA Curncy


10

Local Government Debt – Creditors Structure

Creditors Withdrawn AmountDebt Stock as of 30

November, 2017

EIB 31,371,452,326 27,500,265,794

EBRD 15,082,327,776 13,455,661,461

Intesa Bank 13,236,209,796 6,883,318,940

Commercial Bank 5,039,780,849 3,899,666,747

UniCredit Bank 6,896,984,913 3,583,250,834

ERSTE Bank 2,629,784,730 2,171,315,180

AIK Bank 2,085,127,948 1,669,266,583

Postanska Stedionica Bank 1,739,511,492 1,228,374,429

Societe Generale Bank 1,034,792,480 839,566,248

Halkbank 501,193,801 486,998,237

Others 13,648,198,968 6,297,212,365

Total 93,265,365,077 68,014,896,818

Foreign

Creditors

60.2%

Domestic

Creditors

39.8%

31.4

15.113.2

5.06.9

2.6 2.1 1.71.0 0.5

13.6

27.5

13.5

6.9

3.9 3.62.2 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.5

6.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

In R

SD

bn

Withdrawn Amount

Debt Stock as of 30 November, 2017


11

Local Government Debt – Risk Indicators

Highly Indebted Local GovernmentsAnalysis of Local Government’s Credit Potential

The Highest Credit PotentialThe Lowest Credit Potential

Local GovernmentDebt Stock as of 31

November, 2017

Beograd 39,686,912,992

AP Vojvodina 6,232,055,799

Novi Sad 3,832,955,600

Kragujevac 2,749,752,718

Nis 1,503,898,707

Subotica 948,162,933

Pancevo 755,038,459

Smederevo 745,773,399

Zrenjanin 639,893,477

Sremska Mitrovica 609,981,379

% of total 84.8%

Local Government Debt Stock per Capita

Cajetina 38,257

Beograd 25,180

Kragujevac 15,326

Pecinci 15,213

Zitiste 14,782

Novi Sad 11,418

Svilajnac 10,718

Doljevac 10,364

Bela Palanka 10,017

Kosjeric 9,973

Local GovernmentAvailable Long Term Credit

Potential

Doljevac 2,948,461

Kosjeric 26,788,579

Pecinci 40,211,606

Niska Banja 42,898,151

Zitiste 55,977,642

Svilajnac 65,313,103

Lapovo 81,032,832

Opovo 96,091,563

Cicevac 97,335,763

Batocina 100,404,135

Local GovernmentAvailable Long Term Credit

Potential

Novi Sad 4,406,827,835

Nis 1,935,616,432

Beograd 1,800,097,661

Pozarevac 1,469,455,959

Kraljevo 1,401,189,047

Subotica 1,348,425,133

Cacak 1,308,955,802

Pancevo 1,264,045,946

Krusevac 1,200,084,227

Valjevo 1,090,252,279

Share of the top 5 Local Governments in total debt 79.4%

O/W Belgrade 58.4%

Debt maturing till the end of 2016 1,773,462,341

Debt maturing in 2018 7,939,714,059

Debt maturing in 2019 8,323,637,739

Maximum level of debt based on contracted amount 74,513,110,715

Interest Rate Risk 50.0%

FX Risk 89.4%

Local Government Debt to GDP 1.5%

O/W Non-Guaranteed Debt 0.9%

Maximum Debt Level to GDP 1.7%

Share of the top 10 Creditors in total Local Government Debt 90.7%

Share of Foreign Creditors in Total Local Government Debt 60.2%

Total Available Credit Potential 62,251,721,476

Share of the top 10 Local Governments with the highest available credit potential27.7%

Share of Investment Project Loans in total Local Government Debt99.7%

debt statistics – november 2016

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