death object: exploding the nuclear weapons hoax

DeathObject

ExplodingtheNuclearWeaponsHoax

AkioNakatani

Copyright©2017AkioNakatani

Themoralrightoftheauthorhasbeenasserted.

Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthepriorpermissioninwritingofthepublisher,norbeotherwisecirculatedinanyformofbindingorcoverotherthanthatinwhichit ispublishedandwithoutasimilarconditionincludingthisconditionbeingimposedonthesubsequentpurchaser.

PrintISBN978-1-5455-1683-6

TableofContents

PrologueIntroduction:SATAN2FireLastTimeFireThisTimeBornSecretEnemyAttheGates

Geek-Out

TheNuclearSecretThatDareNotSpeakItsNameBurntheSky!

VirtualManhattanProject

Checkmate

TheSecret

MoneyShot:TRINITYSomethingLikeanActor

UnitTesting?

Jumbo

100-TonTest

IAmBecomeDeath

Trinitite

FoolMeTwice:Japan1945Hiroshima

TrickeryistheWayofWar

Nagasaki

Downfall

TheMikeoftheBeastH-Bomb

LookoutMountainStudios

SomethingFishy:Bikini

PhotoandFilmChecklist

Conspiracy!FireNoTime:FalsificationAcknowledgementsBibliographyAbouttheAuthor

Prologue

兵者詭道也

Trickeryisthewayofwar.

Sunzi

Theprocessofatomicfissionproducesallkindsofelemental“stuff”:

Plutoniumanduranium split unevenly. It is rare that they split into two equalparts, and in the explosion their fragmentsbecomeevery elementbelow them.Anything you can name is there – molybdenum, barium, iodine, cesium,strontium,antimony,hydrogen,tin,copper,carbon,iron,silver,andgold.

(‘TheCurveofBindingEnergy’JohnMcPhee)

In that eclectic spirit, this book can be read as a critical assembly of manydifferent elemental traces: primer (Nuclear Bombs for Dummies), history,polemic,prophecy,comedyortragedy.Ifyouthinkthistopic’sgrayandgloomygravitasrulesoutanyof those,watchStanleyKubrick’smasterpieceofatomichumor,Dr.Stranglove,andthinkagain.

If you’re already an atomic skeptic, this bookwill serve as a handy referencecompendiumoffamiliarevidencecoherentlyorganized.Ifyou’reafirmbelieverintherealityofnuclearweapons,thisbookcouldmakeyouthinktwice.Ifyouhaven’tconsideredthesubjectonewayor theother,Icanpromiseyouthatbytheendofthisbookyou’llhavereceivedalargerdosageofnuclearknowledgewithlessstrainandboredomthanyou’dhavethoughthumanlypossible.IfIgetyouthinkingmoreseriouslyabouttheimplicationsofatomicweaponry,thenasfarasI’mconcerned–result!

Keeponethinginmindasyouread.Inadditiontoallthejunkybyproductsofanuclear blast listed above, there’s one other: photon emissions. That’s visiblelight and it’s what I hope this book can radiate. I think you’ll find it bothenlightening (like a stimulating course lecture) and entertaining (like a horrormovie).

How could a topic so unthinkably ghastly be entertaining? I don’t mean todisrespectthesufferingofanybodyinjuredorkilledinanywar,byanymeans–conventionalorotherwise.Inthisworldofmadnessandpain,weneedgallowshumor. I use levity to reduce our risk of ending up like noted historian IrisChang,who(itisspeculated),spiraledintosuicidaldepressionafterinterviewingonetoomanyofthesurvivorsofthe20thcentury’sworsthorrors.

As a counter-balance, I advise all readers to browse the Hiroshima memoirBarefootGen(mangabyKeijiNakazawa)inparallel.Wheneveryoutireoftheoccasional witticism or moment of sarcastic levity in this book, revert toBarefootGen.Absorbthemadnessandmainlinethestupefyinggraphicatrocityas amood-corrective. The conventional understanding of nuclear history is astrueinitsfunctionofallegoryandmetaphor(orwarningandprophecy)asitisfalseinitsliteralfacts.

Introduction:SATAN2

GodgaveNoahtherainbowsign,Nomorewater,thefirenexttime.

Traditional

In May of 2016, Russian state news outlet Sputnik reported on the latestincarnationofthedevilthathasdoggedhumanitytheseseventy-plusyears:theRS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which can carry a variablenumber of warheads. According to Wikipedia, at maximum throw-weight of10,000kilograms,thisdoomsdaymachinecandelivera50megatoncharge.It’sashotgunversionofthelargestsingleexplosivedeviceeverdeployed,the‘TsarBomba’, supposedly tested by the Soviets, weighing in around 55 megatonsyield–more thanall theordnanceused inWorldWarII (including theatomicbombs)combined.TheRS-28Sarmat(‘Satan2’)canwipeoutTexasorFrance.

Orcan it?Hmmm.Onlyoneway to findout:3…2…1 –hit that redbutton:‘FIREINTHEHOLE!’

Iftheaboveweaponexists,it(anditsbrothers)willbeused-soonermorelikelythan later. Psychopaths run theworld. The classicmovieDr. Strangelove willeasilyconvinceyou thatallanation’s topcabalneeds is someconfidence thattheir central mil.gov officials (and a few buddies and lovers) have at least aroach’schancetosurvivetheenemy’scounterpunch,andtheywillbring it.Asfor non-state actors, theymay not care about self-preservation, in which casenoneof theelaboratelygameddeterrence theory (MutualAssuredDestruction,thePrisoner’sDilemma,theNashEquilibrium,andthelike)isworthspit.

But hang on a sec – is fire in the hole truly the only way to determine thecredibility of the Satan 2 or any nuclear weapon? Is there no rational resting

placebetweenfear-pornforeplayandthemoneyshotthatendstheworld?Thereis a calm eye in this storm - the fact that nuclearweapons don’t work, don’texist.Thisbookexplores theclaimthatnuclearweaponsdonot function, theyarealarge-scalehoax.IcallthishoaxtheFakeNukeFeint.

feint:noun

1.adeceptiveorpretendedblow,thrust,orothermovement,especiallyinboxingorfencing.“abrieffeintattheopponent’sface”

Whoexactly‘theopponent’mightberemainsasaresearchtopic.I’mjustgoingto lay out the relevant technical and social considerations without pointingfingersatspecificindividualsorparticularinstitutions.

Whythisbook:

ToassemblerelevantargumentsandevidenceToorganizeargumentsandevidenceforeasyaccessandnavigationTofilteroutirrelevantpoints,ill-logic,ill-willandprejudiceTodisseminatekeyquestionsforwiderawarenessTostimulatefurtherdiscussionandresearch

A treatment of a hot topic like the fundamental feasibility of nuclearweaponsneeds some justification, framing and scene-setting. The immediate expectedreaction, from a sane, rational, and educated audience, is the ad hominemkillshotbelow:

Thisauthorisjustanotherinternetconspiracynut.

I won’t blame you for that knee jerk. After all, this book lays out a wildproposition.It’salsoaninconvenienttruth,becauseIcannotrevealthetechnicalclincher. I’m forced to circle the issue, and use a megaton of circumstantialevidencetodotheclearancethatasinglegramofthedirect,incontrovertiblebutun-publishable counter-science would accomplish. Since that result cannot be

openly published, this book boils down partly to a review of circumstantialchallenges to the nuclearweapons orthodoxy. Though I could nuke the entireorthodoxywiththescientificresult(beyondareasonabledoubt),unfortunatelyduetoarchaicUSAnationalsecuritylawsIcanonlycarpet-bombthetopicwithcircumstantialmaterialandinference(preponderanceoftheevidence).

Thematerial is amix of ‘new stuff’, sourced fromme, blendedwith existinghistoricalandtechnicalevidencescatteredacrosstheweb,booksandfilms.Evenif you work with highest beyond-top-secret clearance at a nuclear weaponsdesign facility,don’t feel superior to those in theOuterDarkness.We’reall inthesameboat.Amateurnukedebunkers,concernedanalystslikeme,academicscientistsofeverystripe,andyes,youtoo,whoeveryouare–whenitcomestonukes,we’reall just rats beneath themil.gov’s high table.For the foreseeablefuture(becauseofthesecuritylaws),wecanonlygnawatwhateverscrapshaveslopped down to the public domain. Yet by means of those scraps I havediscovered‘thenuclearsecretthatdarenotspeakitsname’.

Thisbookisbasedentirelyonunclassifiedpublicmaterials.Asyoucanseefromthe Bibliography, those mostly consist of mainstream histories and technicalmanuals, compiled by qualified and knowledgeable authorities. It’soverwhelmingly respectable, intellectual, clinical, responsible stuff.Additionally, over the past few years a small community of internet nuclearskepticshasdeveloped.Theyoccasionallydisplayasparkofusefulcommentorthe glowing ember of a little-known citation.We may enjoy dissing them asparanoidnutcases,butIfeelthat,ifnothingelse,weshouldadmiretheirgutsinholdingtoacontrarianstanceinthisworldoffearfulconformity.Unfortunately,theirstuffsuffersfromcontaminationwithbothprejudiceanddistraction.

Theprejudicesaretheusualtsunamiofkeyboardhate,directedatoneoranotherethnicor religiousgroup(s) suspectedof secretlypulling thestrings. Ihavenoidea how that disgusting and reprehensible ethnic hatred has crept into, orperhaps originallymotivated, investigation of nuclearweapons.Readmy lips:this book has zero connection with any ideology or propaganda of hate.

Prejudiceandhatearethesymptomsofavilementalillness,forwhichIhavenotolerancewhatsoever.Hatespeechisalsoirrelevanttothetechnical,culturalandpoliticaltopicathand,whichisonethingandonethingalone:thefeasibilityofexplosivenuclearweapons.

Even when existing skeptical materials are bias-free, they often suffer frommuddledfocus.Conspiracypeople,bythenatureoftheirgame,wanttoconnectall dots and enlarge the picture asmuch as possible. Thus, on any given sitedevoted toexploring thenuclearweaponshoax,you’llusually find interleaveddiscussionofotherpresumedhoaxes,with links to scamsand (putative) ‘falseflag’operations, such as the JFKassassination, theApollomoon landings, theOklahomaCitybombing,and9-11asaninsidejob.Thisbooktakesnopositiononanyofthoseattractivenuisances.Forthisbook,Idon’tcareaboutanyofthat.This book is rigidly circumscribed toone thing andone thing alone: theFakeNukeFeint.

Thecoreofthisanalysisismyownresearchresult.SinceIcannotpresentthatopenly,Iamdoingthenextbestthing,whichistocompile,organize,streamlineand cross-index the voluminous circumstantial evidence. In order to stick (asclosely as this radical subject matter may allow) to conventionally acceptedfactoids, I use boilerplate citations from the USA Wikipedia for historicalcontextandtechnicalreferencewhereverpossible.Wikipediaisnotaninfallibleoracle,butasanorthodoxsamplingof‘received’opiniononmostofthetopicsItreat,it’sagood-enoughpointofdeparture.

EvenwhenIhaveincorporatedpre-existingskepticalmaterial,Ihavedevelopedmy own cross-correlated and creatively annotated versions of those (usuallyinchoate and underdeveloped) points. I don’t cite sources for those kinds ofrandom internet inspirations, partly because of the identity problem. Mostinternet boosters and drive-by cheerleaders for the null nukes conjecture usealiases, handles and nicknames. It’s meaningless to credit net handles andnonsensenicknames.Additionally,there’stheprovenanceandoriginationissue.WhoamItosayMr.orMs.Xistheonetobecreditedwithaspecificpointof

analysisorcitation?Everything’sbeingcopiedbackandforthrelentlessly.Theinfoflowisasrestlessandunknowableasthequantumsuperpositionofatomicorbitals.

Ultimatelydoesitmatterwhofirstmadewhatlittlepointaboutwhichminusculeanomaly? The only unitary and truly original ‘smoking gun’ out there is theformulaofscientificinfeasibility–andthatcan’tbepublished.Apartfromthat,there’snootherabsolute,finalcoffinnailtothenuclearorthodoxy.There’sonlya creeping accretion - preponderance of the evidence. This book is acircumscribed but incrementally convincing compilation of all relevantperipheralevidenceandlogic.

Throughout thebookI’lluseFakeAtomicInstantaneousLiquidation -with itseasy acronym FAIL - for the hypothesis that explosive nukes don’t work.Liquidation might seem a weird term in the technical sense (to refer to theputative adverse effects of atomic explosion), but consider its synonyms:destruction,eradication,annihilation,murder,extermination,carnage.Theendof the world as we know it - not. The FAIL hypothesis holds that nuclearweaponsarea technicalfizzlerebrandedforsuper-sizedshockandawe,not tomentionatriumphofpolitical/socialcommandandcontrol.

Thebookeasesyougentlyintothisradioactiveretentionpond,orno-morelikeatropicallagoon.PicturethegentlelappingofwarmazurewaveletsonaSouthSeascoralatoll…Certainlynosanepersonwouldassociatenuclearhellfirewiththatsweetparadise.Soyou’llhardlynoticethat,asthebookdrillsforward,younowseemtobeoutontheoceansideofthereefandthewavesarebiganddark,and hitting harder, and the spray is biting now, and the ocean floor is fallingawaybeneathyour feetasyoucan’twadeanydeeperwhile the tide is rippingyouout to sea.And the bookwill continue to build aswedive deeper, to thepointwhere the conventional nuke story is being clamped and crushed on allsidesbysomanyatmospheresthatthehullbeginstocreakandgroan,andrivetsstart popping from the inner seams like a .50 cal. fusillade across the controlroom.Climbaboardforawildride.

Innoareaofmodernlifeisthechasmseparatingexpertsfromlayreaderswiderthan when it comes to nuclear weapons. This is both by deliberate design(nationalsecurity laws),andbynatural tendency(the topic is toocomplexanddepressing for most people to even approach). This book is an inevitablyinsufficient and limited treatment of theworld’smost complicated and urgentproblem.Ihopeitwillserveasafire-strikertosparkupradicalinquiry.

FireLastTime

Fear porn has a long and distinguished history. India’s epic saga, theMahabharata(BCE),perhapsthegreateststoryevertold,wowsthereaderwiththedoomsdayweaponsofthegods–theBrahmastraandBrahmashira(literally‘God-head’)missiles.Theancientwritings,whenpairedwiththeircounterpartsinmodern-day nuclear documents and doctrine, sound like shouts and echoesmirroringeachotheracrossthesamechasmoftime.

NuclearMissiles:

Then thedescendantofKakutstha, takingoutof hisquiveran excellent arrowfurnishedwithhandsomewingsandgoldenfeathersandabrightandbeautifulhead,fixeditonthebowwithBrahmastramantra.

(Mahabharata)

Missilesusingaballistictrajectoryusuallydeliverawarheadoverthehorizon,atdistancesof thousandsofkilometers,as in thecaseof intercontinentalballisticmissiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Mostballisticmissilesexit theEarth’satmosphereand re-enter it in their sub-orbitalspaceflight.

(Wikipedia)

ArmingaNuclearWeapon:

Andbeholdingthatexcellentarrow,transformedbyRamawithpropermantrasinto aBrahmaweapon, the celestials and theGandharvaswith Indra at theirhead,begantorejoice.AndthegodsandtheDanavasandtheKinnaraswereledby thedisplayof thatBrahmaweapon to regard the lifeof theirRakshasa foealmostclosed.

(Mahabharata)

Bywayofdefinition,thearmingsystemofanuclearweaponisthatportionofthe weapon which originates the signals required to arm, safe, or re-safe thefiringandfuzingsystems,andtoactuatethenuclearsafingsystem.…Currently,asmany as six different types of safety devices are used together in a singlewarhead to prevent inadvertent nuclear detonation. Arming may also beaccomplishedbyasinglehighenergyelectricalpulsegeneratorwhenaweaponisreleasedfromitsdeliveryvehicle.

(‘TheSwordsofArmageddon:U.S.NuclearWeaponsDevelopmentsince1945’ChuckHansen)

IncinerationandVaporization:

ThenRamashotthatterribleweaponofunrivalledenergy,destinedtocompassRavana’s death, and resembling the curse of a Brahmana on the point ofutterance.Andas soon,OBharata, as that arrowwas shotbyRama fromhisbowdrawn toacircle, theRakshasakingwithhis chariotandcharioteerandhorses blazed up, surrounded on all sides by a terrific fire. And deprived ofuniversal dominion by the energy of the Brahma weapon, the five elementsforsooktheillustriousRavana.AndwereconsumedbytheBrahmaweapon,thephysical ingredientsofRavana’sbody.His fleshandbloodwereallreducedtonothingness-sothattheashesevencouldnotbeseen.

(Mahabharata–fromthepartialretellingofRamayana)

Intenseinfraredenergyisreleasedandinstantlyburnsexposedskinformilesinevery direction. The soft internal organs (viscera) of humans and animals areevaporated.Nuclearshadowsappearforthefirsttimeasaresultoftheextremethermal radiation. These shadows are outlines of humans and objects thatblockedthethermalradiation.ExamplesarethewomanwhowassittingonthestairsnearthebankoftheOtaRiver.Onlytheshadowofwhereshesatremainsintheconcrete.Theshadowofamanpullingacartacrossthestreet isall thatremainsintheasphalt.

(AtomicHeritageFoundation)

‘…hisfleshandbloodwereallreducedtonothingness’AHiroshima‘nuclearshadow’ofoneormorevaporizedvictims(Whyisthewoodwallunscathed?Just

…don’task).

IntellectualPride:

Witnesstodaymyfeats.Beholdtodaymyexcellentweapons,myBrahmastraandothercelestialweapons,asalsothosethatarehuman.Ishall,bymymindalone,hurltodayatPartha,formyvictory,thatweaponofimmeasurableenergy,calledtheBrahmastra.…Savyasaciof immeasurable soulboweduntoBrahmanandinvoked into existence that excellent irresistible weapon called Brahmastra,whichcouldbeappliedbythemindalone.

(Mahabharata)

Ihavefeltitmyself.Theglitterofnuclearweapons.Itisirresistibleifyoucometothemasascientist.Tofeelit’sthereinyourhands,toreleasethisenergythatfuels the stars, to let it do your bidding. To perform these miracles, to lift amilliontonsofrockintothesky.Itissomethingthatgivespeopleanillusionofillimitablepower,anditis,insomeways,responsibleforallourtroubles—this,whatyoumightcall technicalarrogance, thatovercomespeoplewhentheyseewhattheycandowiththeirminds.

(FreemanDyson)

WindBlast:

The Suta’s son then, for slaying the son of Pandu, took up a terrible arrowblazinglikefire.Whenthatadoredshaftwasfixedonthebow-string,theearth,O king, trembled with her mountains and waters and forests. Violent windsbegan to blow, bearing hard pebbles. All the points of the compass becameenvelopedwithdust.

(Mahabharata)

‘Little Boy’ also created ultra high pressure. The wind speed on the grounddirectlybeneaththeexplosionwasbelievedtohavebeen980mphandthisspeed

generatedapressuretheequivalent to8,600lbspersquarefeet.Onethirdofamile from the bomb blast, thewind speedwas thought to be 620mphwhichcreatedapressureof4,600lbspersquarefeet.Onemilefromthecentreoftheblast, thewind speedwas still 190mph and this speed created a pressure theequivalentof1,180lbspersquarefeet.

(HistoryLearningSite)

MushroomCloud:

Theearth seemed to tremblewith loud soundsofwailing.Then the thickdust,raisedbythewindresemblingacanopyoftawnysilk,envelopedtheskyandthesun.

(Mahabharata)

Within another 20 seconds or so the cloud started to push up through theundercast.Itfirstappearedasaparachutewhichwasbeingblownupbyalargeelectric fan.After the hemispherical cap had emerged through the cloud layerone could see a cloud of smoke about 1/3 the diameter of the “parachute”connectingthebottomofthehemispherewiththeundercast.Thishadverymuchtheappearanceofalargemushroom.

(LuisAlvarez–Trinitynucleartesteyewitness)

PanicandTotalDestruction

A thick gloom suddenly shrouded the (Pandava) host. All the points of thecompass also were enveloped by that darkness. Inauspicious winds began toblow. The sun himself no longer gave any heat. Clouds roared in the welkin,showeringblood.Theveryelementsseemedtobeperturbed.Thesunseemedtoturn.Theuniverse, scorchedwithheat, seemed tobe ina fever.Theelephantsandothercreaturesof the land,scorchedby theenergyof thatweapon,ran infright, breathing heavily and desirous of protection against that terrible force.

The very waters heated, the creatures residing in that element, O Bharata,became exceedingly uneasy and seemed to burn. From all the points of thecompass, cardinal and subsidiary, from the firmament and the very earth,showers of sharp and fierce arrows fell and issued with the impetuosity ofGarudaorthewind.StruckandburntbythoseshaftsofAshwathamathatwereallenduedwiththeimpetuosityofthethunder,thehostilewarriorsfelldownliketrees burnt down by a raging fire.Huge elephants, burnt by thatweapon, felldownontheearthallaround,utteringfiercecriesloudastherumblingsoftheclouds.Otherhugeelephants,scorchedbythatfire,ranhitherandthither,androaredaloud in fear,as if in themidstofa forestconflagration.Thesteeds,Oking,andthecarsalso,burntbytheenergyofthatweapon,looked,Osire,likethetopsoftreesburntinaforest-fire.Thousandsofcarsfelldownonallsides.Indeed,OBharata,itseemedthatthedivinelordAgniburntthe(Pandava)hostin that battle, like the Samvarta fire - consuming everything at the end of theAge.

(Mahabharata)

Ahuge fireball formed in the sky.Directlybeneath it isMatsuyama township.Togetherwiththeflashcametheheatraysandblast,whichinstantlydestroyedeverythingonearth,andthoseintheareafellunconsciousandwerecrushedtodeath.Then theywereblownup in theairandhurledback to theground.Theroaring flames burned those caught under the structures who were crying orgroaning for help.When the fire burnt itself out, there appeared a completelychanged,vast,colorlessworldthatmadeyouthinkitwastheendoflifeonearth.Inaheapofashes laythedebrisof thedisasterandcharredtrees,presentingagruesome scene. The whole city became extinct. Citizens who were inMatsuyamatownship,thehypocenter,wereallkilledinstantly,exceptingachildwhowasinanair-raidshelter.

(‘RecordoftheNagasakiA-bombWarDisaster’)

MutualAssuredDestruction,NuclearEthics,NuclearWinter:

That regionwhere theweapon called Brahmashira is baffled by another highweaponsuffersadroughtfortwelveyears,forthecloudsdonotpouradropofwater there for this period. For this reason, the mighty-armed son of Pandu,although he had the power, would not, from desire of doing good to livingcreatures, baffle thy weaponwith his. The Pandavas should be protected; thyownselfshouldbeprotected;thekingdomalsoshouldbeprotected.Therefore,O thou of mighty arms, withdraw this celestial weapon of thine. Dispel thiswrath fromthyheartandlet thePandavasbesafe.TheroyalsageYudhisthiraneverdesires towinvictorybyperpetratinganysinfulact!TheweaponcalledBrahmashira,which that subjugatorofhostile towns,Drona,communicated tohis son, is capable of consuming the whole world. The illustrious and highlyblessed preceptor, that foremost of all wielders of bows, delighted withDhananjaya,hadgivenhimthatveryweapon.Unabletoendureit,hisonlysonthenbeggeditofhim.UnwillinglyheimpartedtheknowledgeofthatweapontoAshvatthama.TheillustriousDronaknewtherestlessnessofhisson.Acquaintedwith all duties, the preceptor laid this command on him, saying, “Evenwhenovertakenby the greatest danger,O child in themidst of battle, thou shouldstneverusethisweapon,particularlyagainsthumanbeings.”

(Mahabharata)

The MAD doctrine assumes that each side has enough nuclear weaponry todestroytheothersideandthateitherside,ifattackedforanyreasonbytheother,wouldretaliatewithoutfailwithequalorgreaterforce.Theexpectedresultisanimmediate, irreversible escalation of hostilities resulting in both combatants’mutual,total,andassureddestruction.

(Wikipedia)

Nottobeoutdone,eventheChristianBiblechimesinonthistheme:

Butthedayof theLordwillcomeasathief inthenight; inwhichtheheavensshallpassawaywithagreatnoise,andtheelementsshallmeltwithferventheat,

theearthalsoandtheworksthatarethereinshallbeburnedup.

Seeing then that all these things shall be dissolved, what manner of personsought ye tobe inallholyconversationandgodliness, looking forandhastingunto thecomingof thedayofGod,wherein theheavensbeingon fireshallbedissolved,andtheelementsshallmeltwithferventheat?

(2Peter3:10-12)

Whatifsomehalfwitweretoassertthattheabovekindsofancientnuke-speakare prima facie evidence of the actual existence of pre-20th century nuclearweapons? The immediate reaction from any rational, intelligent, educated,analyticalpersonwouldbe:bullshit.Logical intellects,confrontedwith thissetof cherry-picked quote pairings in support of any such ridiculous contention,would immediately set about debunking the idiotic claim of ‘ancient nukes’.They’d drill furiously into stuff like the presumed technological levels of theancientsocieties, the lackofphysicalevidence, the likelymotivesof thekingsandscribes,andsoon.Afterall,thosewritingsweremerefantasyscriptscraftedbyadominantpriesthoodtomaintaincontrolthroughfearandmystification.Tothat I say:Goget ‘em, champ!That’s exactly themindsetwe need.You’d bemakingmyargumentforme.

FireThisTime

We must formulate the Fake Atomic Instantaneous Liquidation (FAIL)hypothesisverycarefully.Taking the timeupfront to sculpt theFAILcorrectlycan save infinite irrelevant counter-argumentative keystrokes when the FAILtakes the field against its many doubters, mockers, scoffers, debunkers anddefenders of orthodoxy. A carefully bounded FAIL is also a lot easier to talkabout.

The entire focus of the FAIL is theword ‘weapons’: nuclearweapons do notfunction.Thissaysnothingaboutnuclearpower,asinpowerplantsorsubmarineengines. Presumably, it is possible to generate electric power via slow andcontrolled nuclear fission reactions, which generate heat for steam turbines.Perhapssomeskepticswouldtakeissuewitheventhatlimitedclaim,butI’mnotoneofthose.

Clearlynuclearpowergenerationispossibleandmaybeuseful(ifthesafetyandwaste issues can be handled). Here I’m looking solely at the putativephenomenon of uncontrolled nuclear chain reactions that release a massivecharge of atomic ‘binding energy’ in nanoseconds, vaporizing everything insight.Counter-argumentstotheFAILmustthereforealsofocusentirelyonrapid,uncontrollednuclearchainreactionsdeployedformilitarypurposes.It’snousecounter-attacking FAIL by citing the reality of nuclear power generation. I’mlikewiseside-steppinganyposition,proorcon,onnuclearpowersafetyissues.Nuclear power plants and nuclear power generation will be cited only whenrelevanttoradiationandfalloutfromnuclearweapons.

Thisbookdoesn’tattemptafullreviewoftheorthodoxstandardnarrative-theclaimthatexplosivenukesexistandfunctionasspecified.Forconveniencelet’scall that the FEAR (Functional Explosive Atomic Realityor if you prefer, themorecommonspellout:FalseEvidenceAppearingReal)hypothesis.FEARisso

widelypromulgated,supported,andbolsteredonallsidesthatitneedsnofurtherspotlight. Every sane, educated, rational, informed adult citizen of the worldfeels nuclear FEAR implicitly and wholeheartedly. Only a total idiot woulddoubt it.Rather than lay out the entire accepted history and theory of nuclearweapons,Iwillcherry-pickaspectsoftheconventionalstoryasneeded,whenIrequireafoiltomakemypoint.Ialwaysattempttostatetheorthodoxpositionsin as fair and balanced a way as possible, thus givingFEAR every sportingchance.

BornSecret

Those of us who saw the dawn of the Atomic Age that early morning atAlamogordoknownowthatwhenmaniswillingtomaketheeffort,heiscapableofaccomplishingvirtuallyanything.

GeneralLeslieRichardGroves

EnemyAttheGatesHerewe are, 70+years on from July 16, 1945.Mankind hasn’t changed.ThephilosopherSantayanaopinedthatonlythedeadhaveseentheendofwar.Thathasn’tchangedeither.So,uptoourearsinsuper-weapons,you’dthinkwe’dbenukingeachotherleftandrightbynow.Yetithasn’tcometopass.Why?

Somepeopletalkaboutmaterials.It’stoohardtogetyourhandsonuraniumorein the first place, or too hard to enrich it to weapons grade, or to generateplutonium from it. I see that objection and raise you the classic nuclearbiography‘TheCurveofBindingEnergy’,publishedin1973.Here’samildandpartialsampleofauthorJohnMcPhee’sobservations:

Some months later… it was disclosed that sixty kilograms of U235 wasunaccountedforatanuclear-fuel-fabricatingplantinApollo,Pennsylvania.

The development of other methods of isotropic separation has weakened that[nuclear materials security] barricade, and there is a possibility that it hasbrokendownaltogether.

All theuraniumon thenear sideof theenrichmentplant– in themine, in themill, in the factory that turns it into [uranium hexafluoride] – may soon bevulnerabletomisuse.

Whereisthemorethanhalfamillionkilogramsofweapons-gradeuraniumthathasbeenproduced in theUnitedStates since1945?Roughly twopercenthasbeenexploded.

The amount of plutonium needed for a bomb is a steady figure, whereas thefigureforthroughputofplutonium-239inaplacelikethiswillgoupandupandup.


Wecanscoffthatthisbookcameoutoverfortyyearsago.Nothingtoseehere.PeoplewereNeanderthalsbackthen.Butthere’salotmoreuranium(outoftheground)andplutonium(fromreactors)now.It’slikelythat,althoughsomehigh-endPotemkinproductionandstoragefacilitieshavebeensuper-hardenedsinceMcPhee’s book appeared, the far greater quantities of the material producedsincethenhavetotallyoverwhelmedcontrols.

That’sthematerialssideofit.Otherpeopletalkaboutsecretknowledge.Thisisaforkwithtwotines,foundedonthesetwinassumptions:

(1)Theworking instructionsonhow tomakeabombhavebeenwell-guardedandeverybody’sbeenkeptinthedark;

(2)Despitethe‘existenceproofs’ofTrinity,Hiroshima,andNagasaki(plusthethousandsofnucleartestsaroundtheworldsincethen),technicalpeople(outsidetheNuclearClub)aretoodumbtoreverse-engineerabomb.

Let’sdealwiththeseoneatatime.Certainlytheoriginalwizardsofthecraft,theUnited States nuclear weapons establishment, have kept it pretty much underwraps.Thisisdoneunderthemil.gov’s“bornsecret”doctrine.

“Bornsecret”and“bornclassified”areboth termswhichrefer toapolicyofinformationbeingclassifiedfromthemomentofitsinception,usuallyregardlessofwhereitwasbeingcreated,usuallyinreferencetoinformationthatdescribes

theoperationof nuclearweapons. It hasbeen extensivelyused in reference tothe Atomic Energy Act of 1946, which specified that all information aboutnuclearweapons and nuclear energywas to be considered “RestrictedData”(RD) until it had been officially declassified. The “born secret” policy wascreatedundertheassumptionthatnuclearinformationcouldbesoimportanttonational security that it would need classification before it could be formallyevaluated.Thewordingspecified:

Alldataconcerning(1)design,manufacture,orutilizationofatomicweapons;(2)theproductionofspecialnuclearmaterial;or(3)theuseofspecialnuclearmaterialintheproductionofenergy.

Whether or not it is constitutional to declare entire categories of informationpreemptivelyclassifiedhasnotbeendefinitivelytestedinthecourts.

(Wikipedia)

Despite this, a lot of stuff has leaked out. The high profile cases like that ofKlaus Fuchs (who gaveManhattan Project data to the SovietUnion) arewellknown. But much has happened below that level of James Bond cloak-and-daggeroperations.

Documentswithdetailedtechnicalspecshavebeenfoundonthebackshelvesofpubliclibraries.Encyclopediaarticleshaverevealedtheinternalarchitectureofvariousdevices.Datatablesofchemicalandnuclearpropertiesessentialforfine-tuning your nuke have appeared here and there over the years, often underofficial government imprimatur. By inference from museum exhibits,dimensionalscalingfromcross-correlatedhistoricalphotographs,andinterviewswith old-time nuclear engineers, obsessive amateur nuclear detectives haveferretedoutallkindsofengineeringspecsandprocessdetails.Thesedribsanddrabs have in turn been re-packaged and published in any number of openlyavailable books and popular magazine articles. So the secrecy cloak has inpracticebeenashaggy,baggy,leakything.Butthelawstandsaswritten.

Geek-OutI’m going to assume that you have at least aminimal understanding of basicphysics and chemistry.Therefore youknow theRutherford-Bohrmodel of theatom:

Inatomicphysics,theRutherford–BohrmodelorBohrmodelorBohrdiagram,introducedbyNielsBohrandErnestRutherfordin1913,depictstheatomasasmall,positivelychargednucleussurroundedbyelectronsthattravelincircularorbits around the nucleus—similar in structure to the Solar System, but withattractionprovidedbyelectrostaticforcesratherthangravity.

(Wikipedia)

Though to a purist thismodel is technically ‘obsolete’ (overly simplistic in anumber of marginal respects) it’s ‘good enough for government work’ and iscommonlytaughtastheconventionalpicturewehaveinourminds:

Rutherford-Bohratomicapproximation.

Butpopularillustrationsarewildlyoutofscale:

Thesizeoftheheliumnucleusisabout1fermi,or1fm,whichisequivalentto10-15m.Theatomisabout100,000timesbiggerthanthenucleus,withanatomsizeofabout105fmor10-10m.

(NASA’sCosmos)

Soifthenucleusabovewerethesizeofabaseball,theouterelectronshellwouldbemilesofemptyspacedistantfromit.

ThebasicpointsoftheFEARhypothesisarethat:

(a) There exists a tractable configuration of a certainmaterialwhich neutronscantraversewithasufficienthitrateonthatmaterial’snucleitobreakthemup,thuspropagatingagrowingnuclearsplittingprocess;

(b)Theabovecanhappenatsufficientspeedandtoasufficientdegreetobuildupexplosivepressurewithincontainmentwithoutbeingimpededorprematurelyhaltedbyanyotherfactor.

PinballasExtinctionLevelEvent

Atheorythatyoucan’texplaintoabarmaidisprobablynodamngood.

ErnestRutherford

Explosivefissionis,insomeways,analogoustotheclassicgameofpinball(inotherways…notsomuch).

Pinball is a type of arcade game, in which points are scored by a playermanipulating one or more steel balls on a play field inside a glass-coveredcabinetcalledapinballmachine(orpinballtable).Theprimaryobjectiveofthegame is to score asmanypoints as possible.Points are earnedwhen the ballstrikesdifferenttargetsontheplayfield.Adrainissituatedatthebottomofthe

playfield,partiallyprotectedbyplayer-controlledplasticbatscalledflippers.Agame ends after all the balls fall into the drain a certain number of times.Secondaryobjectivesaretomaximizethetimespentplaying(byearning“extraballs”andkeepingtheballinplayaslongaspossible)andtoearnbonusgames(knownas“replays”).

(Wikipedia)

PINBALL NUCLEARFISSIONplayfield fissilemassplunger initiatorballs neutronstarget fissionablenucleusbumper neutronscatteringflipper reflectordrain neutronleakageextraballs supercriticalreplay chainreaction

Italsohassomethingincommonwithpinball’scloserelative,Pachinko.

InPachinko,theball[neutron]enterstheplayingfield[fissilemass],which ispopulated by a large number of brass pins [nuclei], several small cups intowhich the player hopes the ball will fall [fissionable nuclei] (each catcher isbarelythewidthoftheball),andaholeatthebottomintowhichtheballwillfallifitdoesn’tenteracatcher.Theballbouncesfrompintopin,bothslowingthefallandmakingittravellaterallyacrossthefield.Aballwhichentersacatcherwill trigger a payout [delayed neutrons], in which a number of balls aredropped into a tray at the front of themachine. The object of the game is tocaptureasmanyballsaspossible.Theseballscanthenbeexchangedforprizes[deathanddestructiononatrulyepicscale].

(Wikipedia)

BindingEnergyThereseemstobealittleresidualunclarityonthenature,sourceandmagnitudeof the basic energetic factor.Many people assume that, since a bit ofmass is

“missing” in measurements of post-fission nuclei, that this missing mass hasbeen converted to energy via Einstein’s e = mc2. Here’s how Los AlamosnuclearweaponsdesignerTedTaylordescribedit:

Ithadtodowithbindingenergy,anditwasthatwhenFatManexplodedoverNagasakitheamountofmatterthatchangedintoenergyanddestroyedthecitywas one gram – a third the weight of a penny. A number of kilograms ofplutoniumwere in thebomb,but theamount thatactually released itsbindingenergyandcreatedthefireballwasonegram.E(twentykilotons)equalsm(onegram)timesthesquareofthespeedoflight.


Taylor’ssummary,ifaccurate,wouldalsocovertheHiroshimaLittleBoybomb,becauseU235andplutoniumaresaidtoyieldclose-enoughfiguresperkilogram– about 17,000 tons TNT per kilogram for U235 and about 19,000 forplutonium. As for Einstein’s equation, other sober authorities concur withTaylor:

Afterall,E=mc^2,whichmeansaverysmallamountofmasscanproduceagreatamountofenergy,giventhespeedoflight.

(‘High-PoweredLasersDeliverFusionEnergyBreakthrough’ScientificAmericanFebruary122014)

AllthiscontrastswithRobertSerber’saccount:

Somehow the popular notion took hold long ago that Einstein’s theory ofrelativity,inparticularhisfamousequationE=mc2,playssomeessentialroleinthe theory of fission. Albert Einstein had a part in alerting the United Statesgovernment to the possibility of building an atomic bomb, but his theory ofrelativity is not required in discussing fission. The theory of fission is whatphysicists call a nonrelativistic theory,meaning that relativistic effects are toosmalltoaffectthedynamicsofthefissionprocesssignificantly.

(‘TheLosAlamosPrimer’RobertSerber)

Noneoftheexpertsaboveshouldbesusceptibletoany‘popularnotion’onsuchafundamentalpoint.AccordingtoSerber:

The energy released in fission is exactly the same as the origin of the energyreleased when two atoms or molecules react chemically. It’s the electrostaticenergy between two similarly charged particles. Two similarly large particlesrepeleachother.There’sanelectricalforcepushingthemapart.

Serberuseshisownequationtoderivethespecificsofthatelectrostaticenergy.Inasimplecaseof“electronspushedtogether”itappearsas:

E=e2/R

where:

eistheelectroncharge,e2isemultipliedbyitself,andRisthedistancebetweentheparticles.Theelectrostaticenergythusendsupaskineticenergy,theenergyofmotion.


This equation could apply to either electrons “pushed together” (a relativelyweakencounter)or,moreinterestinglyforexplosivefission,itcanbeextendedto apply to the bound protons of amaterial like the 235 isotope of (enriched)uranium. In the case of U235, after plugging in the relevant pieces of theequationandrunningthroughafewconversions,Serberemergeswithanorder-of-magnitude (roughly correct) energetic equivalent: 1 kilogram of U235 =20,000 tonsofTNT.There isabitof formulaic fussiness in that finalnumber.Theequivalence is actually somewhere in a rangebetween10,000and20,000tonsofTNT.ButbasicallytheSerberformulayieldsthedesiredrange,matchingthe“reality”oftheLittleBoybomb.

AccordingtoWiki:

When1pound(0.45kg)ofuranium-235undergoescompletefission,theyieldis8kilotons.The16kilotonyieldoftheLittleBoybombwasthereforeproducedbythefissionof2pounds(0.91kg)ofuranium-235,outofthe141pounds(64kg)inthepit.

In other words, when about 1 kilogram of U235 fissions, it gives out theequivalentof16kilotons,prettymuchinthemiddleofSerber’srangeandthusvalidatinghis formula.Allgood.But this shows that something iswrongwiththepopularunderstandingofwhat’sreallyhappeninginfission.Itwouldbeanastonishingcoincidenceifthe(Einstein)equationthatcruciallyrelieson,andislargely determined by, the gigantic natural constant c (speed of light at299,792,458meterspersecond,thensquared)wereabletoblindlyconvergeonthe ‘true’ figure as calculated by an entirely unrelated formula thatmakes noreferencetoc.

It’sinterestingthatevenasauthoritativeandaugustavoiceasphysicistRobertSmythinhisclassicworkonweaponizednuclearphysics(‘AGeneralAccountoftheDevelopmentofMethodsofUsingAtomicEnergyforMilitaryPurposes’,1945) falls into this same error of dragging e = mc2 onto the gameboard toaccountfortheblastpowerofnuclearfission.You’dhaveimaginedthatheofallpeoplewouldhaveread‘TheLosAlamosPrimer’.

Probably this popular notion ‘took hold’ due to the tabloid-style reporting ofManhattanProjectembeddedsci-fipropagandistWilliamLaurence.

WilliamLaurence(left)NewYorkTimesembeddedatomicfabulist,withOppenheimer(right)atTrinitytestsite.

You’d like to think that these confusionswill turn out to bemerely divergentvocabularies for describing essentially the same thing. Genius mathematicianJohnVonNeumannobserved:“Ifonehasreallytechnicallypenetratedasubject,thingsthatpreviouslyseemedincompletecontrastmightbepurelymathematicaltransformationsofeachother.”Butinthiscase,thetwoexplanationsaredistinctphenomena,whoserelation(at thelevelofnuclearphenomena)ismorethatofmarginal overlap rather than variable terminology for a unitary underlyingprocess.Innuclearreactions,energyandmassareconservedseparately.

Something is being fudged somewhere. But that’s ok. It’s not a demonicconspiracy, just a little misunderstanding common to the editors of popularbooksandwebsites.Theconversionofmasstoenergyinfissionismerelybeinghugelyover-emphasized,distortedandmisrepresented.It’sperfectlyallrighttohavedifferentlevelsofsophisticationandcorrespondinglymoreorlesspreciseterms of description. As long as no real nuclear expert, no professional LosAlamos labweaponsdesigner,wouldmake themistake of using the relativityequation to derive the energy output and the TNT equivalence… Oh wait…

there’sTaylor’saccountoffissionenergy,quotedabove.Thepointisthateventhemostscientific-soundingnumbersandexplanatoryformulaecanturnout tobefudgedandwronglyapplied,whetherbyguile,carelessness,orignorance.

StonewallI’d love to drag you into the weeds with me at this point. We could have aseriousgeekfest crunching throughall the technicaldataon theexact specsofthe (supposed) explosive fission process. But we now hit a technical andconceptualstonewall.Thegraffitiscrawledacrossthatwallnamestheproblem:explosive fast fission. Ignoring a hugemass of detail, the situation is that forexplosivefissiontooccur:

enough‘fast’(highenergy)neutronsneedto…hitenoughtargets(fissionablenuclei)within…ashortenoughtime.

There are many levels of neutron ‘speed’ (energy), many ways in which the‘speed’ can be affected or controlled, and many ways the targets may bepresented or arranged. The result is a large combinatory space, which spansvariouskindsofnuclearreactortechnologiesandatomicbombconfigurations.

Anexplosiveprocessbydefinition requires speed.For that, youhave toworkwithhighenergy fastneutrons.Thedownside is that fastneutronsare,allelseequal, less likely than slow neutrons to hit a target nucleus in the fissionablematerial.Soyouhavetotweakotherleversandswitchestoretaintheadvantageof fast neutrons (speed of resulting reaction) while minimizing theirdisadvantage(lesslikelytohitanything).

It’snoteasytogetaneutrontohit thenucleus.Thinkof it!It’s likeshootingabullet intomemorial stadiumand trying tohit thatmosquito.Mostof the timeyoumiss.

(ProfessorRichardMuller,UCBerkeley)

Typicaltweaksinclude:

Enrichmentof thefissionablematerial:Providenuclei thataremost likelytofissioneasilywhenencountered.Forweapons,thismeansusingenrichedU235 uranium isotope (derived from natural U238 via various chemicaland/or electromagnetic processes) or plutonium (derived from U238 viaslowfissioninareactor,followedbychemicalseparation).More neutrons: Plutonium has the edge over U235 in this department,releasingonaverage2to3neutronsperfissioneventvs.1to2neutronsforU235.Youcanalsoincreaseneutronsbyusingagoodinitiatorthatspraysout a lot of them right at the start of critical assembly, or even by usingfusion of hydrogen isotopes as a layer in a device, which creates a bigneutronspray.Shapingof the fissionablematerial:Allelseequal, a sphere isconsideredoptimal for keeping the neutrons bounded within a geometry presentingminimalsurfacearea.Reflection of neutrons: The critical mass of fissionable material can beencased in layersofsomething thatpreventsneutronsfromleakingoutofthe reaction, into the surroundingswhere theyno longercontribute to thefission.Compression of the fissionablematerial, creating a denser target field ofnuclei. This means contriving to mash the fissile mass into itself,(commonly accomplished with an enclosing shell of high explosivesfocusedinwardontoasphereoffissionablematerial).

Thepre-bangchecklistrequiresincrediblyelaborateandprecisecalculationstoinsurethatasufficientquantityoffastneutrons,goingat‘fast’enoughspeedsastheyblastthroughthematerial,arelikelyenoughtohitatargetnucleus,withahighenoughproportionofthoseencountersoftherighttype(breakingapartthetarget nucleus rather than being captured by it or any of a number of otherpossiblesub-optimaloutcomes)resultinginenoughneutronsbeingliberated inthecollisionstopropagatetheprocessonward.And,mostcrucially,thatallthiswillhappeninjusttherightamountoftimeforanexplosiveoutcome.It’sarealGoldilocksproblembecausethetargetnucleiarefewandfarbetween,giventheatomicscalefactscoveredatthestartofthissection.

Idon’tmeantoshirkthehardlaborofsteppingthroughalltheanalyticaldetailsandunravelinghoworwhether‘they’(thepastandcurrentbombscientists)gotallthestuffabovejustright.Butnowaconceptualroadblockrearsupagainstus.It’safundamentaltenetofsciencethatresultsaredescribedopenly,insufficientdetail for replication by skilled readers. But for safety reasons this standardprotocoldoesn’tapplytonukes.Andthetightsecurityleavesuswithnowaytoprobethetruthandresolvetheworkabilityoftheseclaims…right?

TheNuclearSecretThatDareNotSpeakItsName

‘But the whole universe is outside us. Look at the stars! Some of them are amillionlight-yearsaway.Theyareoutofourreachforever.’

‘What are the stars?’ said O’Brien indifferently. ‘They are bits of fire a fewkilometresaway.Wecouldreach them ifwewanted to.Orwecouldblot themout.Theearthisthecentreoftheuniverse.Thesunandthestarsgoroundit.’

‘1984’GeorgeOrwell

Let’szerorightinonthematterathand:

Theobjectoftheprojectistoproduceapracticalmilitaryweaponintheformofabombinwhichtheenergyisreleasedbyafastneutronchainreactioninoneormoreofthematerialsknowntoshownuclearfission.


Thatwasthegoal,andifFEARisbelieved,theresultoftheManhattanProject,running(formypurposes) from1943 throughmid-1945.Did it reallyhappen?Considerthescientificsituation:

Inanenterprisesuchasthebuildingoftheatomicbombthedifferencebetweenideas,hopes,suggestionsandtheoreticalcalculations,andsolidnumbersbasedonmeasurement,isparamount.Allthecommittees,thepolitickingandtheplanswould have come to naught if a few unpredictable nuclear cross sections hadbeendifferentfromwhattheyarebyafactoroftwo.

(EmilioSegrè)

Otherluminarieshadtheirdoubts:

Veryoftenwekeptsayingmaybewe’llcomeacrosssome insuperablephysicalobstacle,whichprevents it fromworking.Youcaneasily imagine those things.Forexample,alittledelayintheemissionoffastneutronsafterfission.

(PhillipMorrison)

Though explosive fission seems so blatantly obvious now, there’s no a priorireason why the power of fission should be harvestable in any manner, forelectricityorbombs.Given therangeofpossibleways theworldcouldbe, it’sactuallyratherunlikelyandamazingthatthenumbershappentoworkperfectlyto enable this useful technology. It’swrong to assume that unbounded humaningenuitycanmakeanythingatallhappen.

BurntheSky!Consideracounter-example,anoppositecounterpart to themiracleof the‘justso’ numbers thatmake explosive fission (seem) possible. Nature simply turnsthumbs down on another attractive doomsday idea, early speculation aboutsettingtheatmosphereonfire:

Edward [Teller] brought up the notorious question of igniting the atmosphere.Bethewentoffinhisusualway,putinthenumbers,andshowedthatitcouldn’thappen.Itwasaquestionthathadtobeansweredbutitneverwasanything,itwasaquestiononlyforafewhours.ItsomehowgotintoadocumentthatwenttoWashington.Soeveryonceinawhileafterthat,someonehappenedtonoticeit,and thenbackdown the laddercame thequestion,and the thingneverwaslaidtorest.


Soit’samazing–inonecase,thenumbersdidn’thappentoworkout(toallowfor igniting the entire atmosphere) and in another case they did – for nuclear

fission,which,whenworked,reworked,amplifiedandturnedinsideoutenablesadoomsdaymachinethatindeedcoulddestroytheearthinanotherway.So,whoareyougoingtobelieve?Supposethatabigteamofgeniusesweretobegiventhemilitarymission:createadoomsdayweaponthatcanignitetheatmosphere.Would they have eventually triumphed over nature, would they have brokenthrough the barrier of Bethe’s “numbers [which] showed that it couldn’thappen”?Somethingsjustdon’twork.Explosivenuclearfissionisoneofthosethings,andtheinterestingquestionsarewhenitsinfeasibilitywasdiscoveredandhowthatfactwashandled.

VirtualManhattanProjectWithfourparametersIcanfitanelephant,andwithfiveIcanmakehimwigglehistrunk.

-JohnvonNeumann

Theultimatemystery about nukes iswhy, after all theseyears, from1946on,nobodyhasevernukedanybodyinanger(ifyou’rereadingthisbytheglowofagreen glass parking lot, youmay be forgiven a sardonic chuckle).Maybe thedoctrineofMutualAssuredDestruction really is restraining thebloodlust.Butthe MAD doctrine only applies to nations. National leaders obviously carenothing for the lives in their charge,but theyareattached to theirpalacesandlimos. The politicians’ uncertainty as towhether those perks could be up andrunningquicklyenoughafteranukeexchange isenough to restrain them- fornow.Butthatdoesn’tapplytoterroristswhoarehappytodieforTheCause.Sothen thequestionarisesofwhyno terroristbadguyshaveyetnukedanything.Theusualanswerboilsdowntolackofthesecomponents:

MaterialsKnowledgeInfrastructure

It’s assumed that those resources are a ‘bridge too far’ for a terroristorganization. The usual show-stopper statement to avoid the whole topic is:“You’d need another Manhattan Project.” I could go deeply into all thecontradictionsandabsurditiesthataboundonthissubject.Butinthissection,IwanttodiscusswhethertheFEARhypothesisisvalid.

Given all the restrictions on publicizing the science and design factors thatenable explosive fission, it seems we’ve struck out on the ‘replication’requirement that underlies real science. It appears that all anybody can do itaccept spoon-feeding of filmed results and expert testimony. But appearancesdeceive.Thereisawaythat thevalidityofexplosivefissioncouldbeverified.Themethodoutlined in thisbook isonlya thought experiment. It involvesnoacquisitionoruseoffissionablematerialswhatsoever. It isprofferedstrictly intheserviceofthesearchfortruth.

Itmusthoweverbesaidthat,sadly,thereisnobarrierpreventingasmallgroupofbadguys,nottomentionanationorsophisticatedcriminalorganizationfromdoinginrealitywhatisoutlinedhereasmerevirtuality.Andthehorriblebeautyof the scheme is that, by the precedent of the Manhattan Project, thedevelopmentproceduresketchedhereisguaranteedtowork.

Is there only enough fissionablematerial for a single bomb?No problem.Byfollowing the procedure here, bad guys could develop a nuclear weapon thatworksperfectlyonfirstfiring–withouttesting.Noclassifiedinformationwouldneedtobeaccessed.Itisthusthefabled‘unclassifiedbomb’.Allthat’sneededisone bomb’s worth of fissionable material. I’ll cover the materials issueelsewhere. Now, let’s talk about the knowledge problem and the designchallengeforbuildinga21stcenturyunclassifiedbomb.IftheFEARhypothesisiscorrect,thisprocedurecannotfailtoproduceaworkingweapon.

ConsidertheoriginalManhattanProject.Forgetaboutthematerialsproblemforamoment (GeneralGroves is on it). The LosAlamos scientists beganwith atheory and a goal, nothing more. The theory told them that explosive fission

should be possible. As far as post-1945 conventional scientific thought isconcerned, this theory is true. Itwas fullyvalidatedatTrinity,Hiroshima,andNagasaki.

So howdid they get from their true theory to their realized goal? In terms ofanythingremotelyrecognizabletodayasserioussimulationtheyhadonlyStoneAgetools.Theyreliedonpurebrainsandinstinct,justawingandprayer.Theywere like thepinballwizard in therockoperaTommy,whothoughdeaf,dumbandblind “playsby senseof smell”.Because their theorywas true, theywereable to develop two different weapon designs and implementations, both ofwhichworkedperfectlyontheveryfirstfulltest/use(TrinityandHiroshima).Inachieving this, they did all the heavy lifting for all time. The task of today’sunclassified bomb builder is infinitely simpler and easier than what theManhattan Project faced in the day. The two challenges should not even becompared.

TheVirtualManhattanProjectisbuiltaroundtwoessentialelements,neitherofwhichwasavailabletotheoriginalguys.

1. Areverse-engineeredcomponentmodel.2. Simulationtechnology.

With those, it is nowpossible for, on the one hand, any regular Joe to recruitsome friends and build a basement nuke, or on the other hand (more to thisbook’spurpose)toeitherverifyordebunktheFEARhypothesis.

TheCoster-MullenComponentModel

Intechnologyonesometimeshearsabout‘reverseengineering’.

Reverseengineering,alsocalledbackengineering,istheprocessofextractingknowledgeordesign information fromanythingman-madeandre-producing itorre-producinganythingbasedontheextractedinformation.

(Wikipedia)

An engineer begins with a fully functional example of a working artifact(anythingfromanelectrictoothbrushtoasoftwareapplication)andthenfiguresout what makes it tick by inference based on (i) its performance and/or (ii)disassemblyfordirectinspection.

Ananalysthasreverse-engineeredthefirstatomicbombs.JohnCoster-Mullen’sbook‘AtomBombs:TheTopSecretInsideStoryofLittleBoyandFatMan’isanearly complete designmanual for understanding and replicating the simplestoriginalnukes.Thebookexplainseverydesignelementandhowtheyallhangtogether,basedonexhaustive reviewoforiginaldocumentationand interviewswith surviving principals, including scientists, engineers, and militarydeploymentpersonnel–virtuallyanyonewhohadsomehandinworkingonorwiththebombs.

C-M’swork has been praised to the skies by heavyweight atomic authorities,including former heads of theUSA nuclearweapons laboratories, as the onlyaccuratedesignanalysisof theearlynukes.Somehaveevengone so far as tosuggest he’s in violation of national secrecy laws.But everything in the bookwas derived from unclassified public reference materials harvested by C-M’slasereyes(poringoverhundredsofpiecemealphysicalprototypesandmuseumpieces) and his razor logic (applied to establishing connections, catchingcontradictionsandfillingingaps).C-Misclearlythegreatest‘reverseengineer’ofalltime.‘AtomBombs’isthehow-tomanualforthe‘unclassifiedbomb’thatLos Alamos weapons designer Ted Taylor obsessed about in ‘The Curve ofBindingEnergy’(JohnMcPhee).

So then why, apart from the few insider grumbles mentioned above (whichCoster-Mullenproudlyreproducesinthefrontmatterofhisbookastestimonytoauthenticity) hasn’t there been more outcry? Why hasn’t Coster-Mullen beenspiritedawaybyMenInBlack,thebookscrubbedfromAmazon,andallcopiesflusheddowntheOrwellianmemoryhole?Well,foronethingtheUSAisstilla

freecountry,sortof.Afterall,thebookdoesnotreproduceclassifieddocumentsorincludeanyillegalinformationfoundonlyinsuchsources.

Butthemostimportantreasonfortheofficialtoleranceextendedtothisbookisthe bogus refrain we’ve heard along: You’d (still) need another ManhattanProject.ButiftheFAILhypothesisistrue-ifexplosivefissionisforreal-thenthatresponseisatragicmisreadingofthesituation.

OncepossessedofC-M’smanual,why(underconventionalthinking)mightyoustill need anotherManhattan Project to produce your unclassified bomb?Onethingistheusualsidetrackaboutfissionablematerials.That’snotmymainfocusinthissection,butsufficeittosayagain:read‘TheCurveofBindingEnergy’.Thisdecades-oldbookwillbleachyourhairasyoulearnhoweasilybadguysofthattimecouldhavepossessedthemselvesofallmannerofnastystuff,includingU235 and plutonium, in various forms. Whatever tightening of security andaccounting protocols was imposed after the book’s appearance has probablybeenmorethanout-runandend-runbythehugeaccumulationofsuchmaterialsintheensuingdecades–especiallyoutsidetheUSA.

For now, let’s put the materials thing aside and concentrate on the weapon’sdesign and function. Decades before C-M’s detailed design manual wasavailable,LosAlamosweapons designerTedTaylor had this to say about the‘unclassifiednuke’.It’swhatI’mtalkingabouthere,aproof-of-conceptdevice:

Ted Taylor would like to see Los Alamos or Livermore build and detonate acrude,coarse,unclassifiednuclearbomb–unclassifiedinthatnothingdoneinthe bomb’s fabrication would draw on knowledge that is secret. … Taylor’sinstructionstoLosAlamoswouldbe“Layoffanysophisticationaltogether.Trytoseehowsloppyyoucanget.Thensetthethingoffunderground.Measuretheyield.Putastoptospeculationaboutthissubject.”


As far as anybody knows, this has never been done. The formulaic responsefromsophisticatedreaderstotheTaylorchallengeabovehasalwaysbeen,again:You’dneedyourownManhattanProject.Inadditionto theC-Mmanual, thereare plentiful public materials to be found in odd places such as the formerEncyclopediaAmericana,includingthingslike:

…factorsofdensitythatcouldbereachedinmetallicfissilematerialwithcertainlevelsofimplosiveforce


Putitalltogetherandyouhavetheblueprintofabomb.Iammostemphaticallynot suggesting any non-scientist, people working with a nefarious purpose,should pursue this.Whywould youwant to hurt anybody? Be a lover, not afighter.No,thepurposeofthisexcursionistoconsiderwhetherthere’sanywaytoverifythetruthorfalsityoftheFAILhypothesisshortofphysicallyblowingsomethingup.Athoughtexperiment,ifyouwill.

It turns out there is.And due to theManhattan Project’s (supposed) existenceproof,it’snowwayeasierthananythingthatteamfacedinthe1940’s.AllyouneedisaMacBook.MaybeaMacBookPro.

ParameterFitting

Givenalltheexistingmaterials,theC-Mmanualandalltherestthat’soutthere,it would be straightforward to construct a functional software simulation of anuclear weapon. Before anybody freaks out and starts sputtering about supercomputersand irreduciblecomplexityandsoon, listencalmly toexactlywhatI’mlayingdownhere.

Asimulationisbuiltfromthesepointsofinformation:

1. Components,withtheiraprioricharacteristicandspecifications2. Spatialarrangementofthecomponents

3. Processmodeloftemporaloperation4. Control parameters for the components, their interactions, and their

environment5. Asetofworkablevaluesforeachcontrolparameter

Whatintheabovelistismissingorsecretatthispoint?TheC-Mmanualtotallycovers1and2andmostof3,certainlyfortheLittleBoyuranium‘gun’typeofbomb. The combination of the C-M manual with the essential theory ofexplosive fission (basic level -onlywhat theManhattan scientistsbeganwith)specifiestherequiredparametertypes.Astartinglistofparametertypesforcorenukeprocesseswould includeenvironmental, characteristicandcontrol factorsliketheseusualsuspects(mixingbombtypesjusttogivetheidea):

Type,amount,quality,density,geometryetc.ofthefissilemass,includingfiguresforlikelihoodoffission,neutroncapture,averageneutronsreleasedperfission,etc.Specificationsforinitiator(neutronsource)ifanySpecificationsforneutronreflectorifanySpeedandrequiredforceofcriticalassemblymechanism

… and many more. In a practical simulation there might be hundreds ofcomponentsandprocesses,eachwithdozensofparametersandavastinteractionspace.Allthesewouldbeembeddedunderaphysicsmodel,specifyingallreal-worldstuffthatmightaffectthereactions,suchasgravity,temperature,magneticor electric fields, moisture – anything that affects or constrains the intendedprocess.Thatsupportpiecewouldbelikethehigh-end‘physicsmodel’usedinsophisticated video games. Embedded within the bomb model would be thecritical assembly simulator. (I’m not talking about a graphical simulator here.The graphics of this simulation don’tmatter.We’re building a ‘good enough’proof-of-conceptwhereallthenumbersplaywelltogether;reflecttheperfectlysmooth match between theory and practice demonstrated by the ManhattanProject;andadduptoBOOM.)

Thisisn’teyecandy–prettycolorsonthescreenwhereyoucouldsetanyvaluesyouwant for atom count, neutron count, implosion depth etc. Those are toys.What I’m talking about here is expressing the theoretic elements of explosivefission thoroughly and accurately enough in our parameters such that themodel’s processwhen ‘run’ yields the same explosive numbers thatwould bereflectedinaperfectinstrumentcaptureofanactualeventsuchasTrinity.Todothat you can’t just provide some inputs and not worry about the real worldaccuracyoftheoutputs,norcanyousetdesiredoutputsandblithelyassumetherealworldfeasibilityofthegeneratingprocessandinitialconditions.Bothendsmustmatchup,justastheydidintheTrinitytest(I’mtalkingabouttheabstractquality of consistent and realistic modeling, not aboutmatching the observedvaluesofanyoneparticulartest.Anysimulationbasedoninputofgoodtheory,expressed in realistic parameter settings, that yields output of the observedvaluesofarealworldexplosivedetonationwouldqualifyasagoodsimulation.)

That’dbearealhairballofasimulationforsure.That’swhythecontemporarydesigners of actual nuclear weapons are so into massive supercomputers.Considerthisnewsstoryfromafewyearsback:

LIVERMORE,CALIF.—AgroupofnuclearweaponsdesignersandscientistsattheLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratoryconductedawhat-ifexperimentseveral years ago, deploying supercomputers to simulate what happens to anuclearweapon from themoment it leaves storage to the pointwhen it hits atarget.

Theymethodicallyworked downa checklist of all the possible conditions thatcouldaffecttheB-83strategicnuclearbomb,themostpowerfulandoneofthemost modern weapons in the U.S. arsenal, officials said. The scientists anddesignersexaminedhowtemperature,altitude,vibrationandotherfactorswouldaffectthebombinwhatiscalledthestockpile-to-targetsequence.

Such checks typically have been carried out by taking bombs and warheadsapart; scrutinizing them using chemistry, physics, mathematics, materials

scienceandotherdisciplines;andexaminingdatafromearliernuclearexplosivetests. This time, however, the scientists and designers relied entirely onsupercomputermodeling,runninghugeamountsofcode.

Thencameasurprise.Thecomputersimulationsshowedthatatacertainpointfromstockpiletotarget,theweaponwould“failcatastrophically,”accordingtoBruce T. Goodwin, principal associate director at Livermore for weaponsprograms. Such a failurewouldmean that theweaponwould not produce theexplosiveyieldexpectedbythemilitary—eithernoneatall,orsomethingquitedifferentthanrequiredtoproperlyhitthetarget.

(TheWashingtonPostNov.1,2011)

The above report indicates that simulations of complex atomic processes arebothfeasibleandcanbefunctionallyreflectiveofrealworldoutcomes.Buttheabove simulation required some heavy computational lifting, with lots morecapacitylinedupontherunwayforthenearfuture:

NextMayorJune,LivermoreplanstoputintooperationanIBMsupercomputer,Sequoia,capableof20petaflops.Apetaflopisathousandtrillionfloatingpointoperationspersecond.Themachine,on96refrigerator-sizeracks,willcontain1.6million processing cores andwill be 10 times faster thanwhat is now thefastest computer in the world. By comparison, all the computing power atLivermoretodayisabout2.5petaflops.

(Postarticle)

Withthesekindsofsophisticationandpowerrequirements,howcanIassertthata simulation performed with lesser hardware and software capability is evenremotely feasible? Consider the situation that has obtained from the time ofTrinityuntiljustrecently:

Inrecentyears,physicistsatLivermoresurmountedoneof theoldestandmostdifficult challenges they faced. In many nuclear weapons explosive tests,

measurementssuggestedthatthedetonatingbombsappearedtoviolatealawofphysics,“conservationofenergy,”whichstatesthatinaclosedsystem,thetotalamountofenergyremainsconstant,andthusenergycannotbeeithercreatedordestroyed.Fordecades,thenuclearweaponeerspuzzledoverwhythetestresultsappearedtobreakfromthisprinciple.Then,the“energybalance”problem,asitwasknown,wassolvedbyaLivermorephysicist,OmarHurricane,whowonthe2009E.O.LawrenceAwardfromtheDepartmentofEnergyforhiswork,whichremainsclassified.

(Postarticle)

Saywhat??Youhavegottobeeffingkiddingme.Youmeanthoseearlynucleargeniuses,thebaddest-assscientistsever,whogotthebombblowingupfirsttimeout, homerun on their first at-bat, with essentially zero system testing, didn’tunderstand why it worked? They were flying blind? That’s what the abovestatement appears to suggest, at least for the early hydrogen bombs.A Sovietphysicistrecallswhatheheardaboutthisearlyuncertainty:

AtaconferenceatLosAlamosinApril1946,whereTellerpresentedtheresultsofhiscalculationsofClassicalSuper,Bethemadearemark,thattheamountofinverse Compton scattering of γ’s (not accounted for by Teller), will result innegative energy balance and that the hydrogen bomb of this type will notexplode.Inourcalculationsafterhardworkwecametothesameconclusion–theenergybalancewasnegative.

(BorisIoffe,MoscowInstituteofTheoreticalandExperimentalPhysics)

Well, that’sok.Wecan takea tolerantview.Afterall,did theWrightBrotherstotally understand all of aviation science when they got their gadget off theground?It’spossibletheyneverevenheardoftheBernoullieffect(whichmaynot even be the true/full explanation for aviation ‘lift’ anyway). And Darwindidn’t know about DNA (though he never tried to clone sheep either).Regardless,wehavetoadmiretheoriginalatomicgangstersevenmore–truly

theywerereal-lifeembodimentsof theblindpinballwizard,withcrazy flipperfingersandsuchasupplewrist.

At least theWright Brotherswere able to dowind test and other engineeringintegration testing, step by step. But even powered flight isway simpler thanbuilding an atomic bomb that works first time out. You have to admire theManhattanProject’sachievement:

Wrong,confused,orpoorlyunderstoodtheoryDozen or hundreds of control and sequencing parameters estimated‘manually’Nointegrationtestingpriortofirstmajordemonstration

At this point we could drag out the tired cliché about ‘the probability that atornadorippingthroughajunkyardwillspontaneouslyassemblea747’.Butyouwon’t catch me saying that. Because you don’t need monster arrays of 20petaflopmachinestodotheparametersettingforyourworkingbomb.

Allyouneedis:

1. primitive-but-workableManhattanProjectleveloftheory2. somepublicdomaindatatables3. C-M’smodelofcomponents,layoutandprocess4. adecentlaptopcomputer5. Matlab and/or Microsoft Azure and/or Google Cloud and/or any other

standardmachinelearningtoolssuite

With theaboveinhand,youcanreverse-engineer theoneremainingnecessaryitem–thefinalclassified‘secretsauce’oftheTrinity,Hiroshima,andNagasakibombs – the parameter settings. I’m using the term ‘parameter setting’ in abroad sense for anythingvariable in thedevice such as amount andqualityofcorematerials, dimensions of everything, timing, and all else that needs to benumericallyspecifiedorcontrolled.

This is where thosewho are complacent about books like C-M’smanual andMcPhee’s work on Ted Taylor are sadly fooling themselves when they say:“You’dneedanotherManhattanProject.”OneManhattanProjectwas enough,and,partlyasa resultof its ‘success’, theunclassifiedbombdesignernowhasaccesstoallthestuffabove.SoIcanassertthefollowing:

1. There exists an unclassified devicemodelM, characterized by parameterset P, which, when engaged according to parameter value set V, is afunctionalrepresentationofaworkingatomicbomb.

1. IfadevicewerebuiltanddeployedinaccordancewithM=P(V)itwouldexplode with the yield of Fat Man or Little Boy (depending which waschosenasthebasisforM).

Now you say: gotcha! Because it’s well enough to claim that, while theManhattanProject’stheorywaswrongorseriouslyincomplete,itisasufficientbasisforaworkingbomb.Andit’sallverywell tosaythatanaccuratedevicemodel and set of timing and control parameters is openly available.Butwhatabouttheparametersettings?There’syourshowstopper!You’dneedpetaflopsofcomputingpowertoresolvethose.

No,youwouldn’t.ConsiderhowtheManhattanProjectworked.

[Oneprocess]ofgreatinteresttoLosAlamoswastheprogressoffreeneutronshurtlingthroughanuclearweaponasitbegantoexplode.AsStanislawUlam…wouldsubsequentlynote,“MostofthephysicsatLosAlamoscouldbereducedtothestudyofassembliesofparticlesinter-actingwitheachother,hittingeachother, scattering, sometimes giving rise to new particles.” Given the speed,direction, and position of a neutron and some physical constants, physicistscould fairly easily compute the probability that it would, during the next tinyfractionofasecond,crashintothenucleusofanunstableatomwithsufficientforcetobreakitupandreleasemoreneutronsinaprocessknownasfission.Onecould also estimate the likelihood that neutrons would fly out of the weaponentirely, change direction after a collision, or get stuck. But even in the very

shorttimespanofanuclearexplosion,thesesimpleactionscouldbecombinedinanalmost infinitenumberof sequences,defyingeven thebrilliantphysicistsandmathematiciansgatheredatLosAlamostosimplifytheproliferatingchainsofprobabilitiessufficientlytoreachatraditionalanalyticalsolution.

Thearrivalofelectroniccomputersofferedanalternative:simulatetheprogressovertimeofaseriesofvirtualneutronsrepresentingmembersofthepopulationreleased by the bomb’s neutron initiator when a conventional explosivecompresseditscoretoformacriticalmassandtriggeritsdetonation.Followingthese neutrons through thousands of random events would settle the questionstatistically, yielding a set of neutron histories that closely approximated theactualdistribution impliedby theparameterschosen. If thenumberof fissionsincreased over time, then a self-sustaining chain reaction was underway. Thechainreactionwouldendafteraninstantasthecoreblewitselftopieces,sotherapid proliferation of free neutrons, measured by a parameter the weapondesignerscalled“alpha,”wascrucialtothebomb’seffectivenessinconvertingenricheduraniumintodestructivepower.

The weapon used on Hiroshima is estimated to have fissioned only about 1percentof its141poundsofhighlyenricheduranium, leavingbombdesignerswithagreatdealofscopeforrefinement.Using[probabilisticsimulations], theexplosive yield of various hypothetical weapon designs could be estimatedwithoutusingupAmerica’spreciousstockpilesofweapons-gradeuraniumandplutonium.Thiswas,inessence,anexperimentalmethodwithinasimulatedandmuchsimplifiedreality.

(‘NuclearMonteCarloSimulations1947-1948’ThomasHaigh)

Thusit’sclearthatfullyfunctionalparametervaluescanbederivedevenintheabsenceofaccuratetheoryandbasedonincompleteexperimentalresults,justbya powerful sampling and automated simulation. But note the date on thatdescription:1947–1948.Rightafter thewar,LosAlamosbegantoworkwithserious digital computers,which, though pitifully slow and buggy,weremore

like today’s architectures than the analog calculators and IBM punch cardmachinesusedintheinitial(wartime)phase.

In thewartime phase, the calculatingmachinerywas truly StoneAge, yet thescientists arrived at good-enough (BOOM!)workable parameter values,whichwere subsequently locked up as highest state secrets. But with the materialsoutlined above, and with the incomparably superior parameter estimation andstatisticalmodelingsystemsavailabletoanybodytodaypracticallyforfree,thatsecretsauceof‘known-to-BOOM’parametersettingscouldbeeasilyrecoveredandreplicated.Forourpurposes,thatwouldvalidatetheexplosivefissionFEARhypothesis. Unfortunately, this process would also serve up to any villain orscumbagwhocomesalongaguaranteed-to-BOOMrecipeforaworkinggadget.I’llhavemoretosayonprobabilisticsimulationmethodslaterinthischapter.

***

All those ‘Deleted’ arrows represent numerical parameters, the supposedly‘secret’ sauce that separates the sheep of a general layout from the goat of aworking device. Given the configuration shown, and a physics model, theparameters can be restored by high-speed simulation. Virtually infinite

combinationscanbetestedandverifiedinmilliseconds.

CheckmateThesciencesdonottrytoexplain,theyhardlyeventrytointerpret,theymainlymake models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with theaddition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. Thejustification of such amathematical construct is solely and precisely that it isexpectedtowork.

-JohnvonNeumann

Aswe’veseeninthepreviouschapter,timingiseverything.Threethingsneedtohappenveryquickly:

Assembly:Sub-criticalpiecesordensitiesoffissionablematerialmustbekeptinsufficientproximitysuchthattheycanbeputtogetherrapidlyinaweapon,yetfarenoughapartthattheydon’tbegintointeractprematurely.Theidealwaytocreateacriticalmassistoapplysymmetricalpressuretooneormorechunksofsub-criticalmaterial.

Compression:Greaterdensityinthefissionablematerialgivestheneutronsanoptimizedtarget-richenvironment.Theidealmethodisanalmostinstantaneoussymmetrical explosive force increasing the material’s density to the requiredlevelforfissionchainreaction.

Containment:Explosivefissionisaracebetweenthechainreaction’sbuildingpowervs.acontainmentforceholdingthingstogetherlongenoughforthepowertobereallyimpressivewhenitdoeseventuallyblow.Ifthepoweroverwhelmsthecontainmenttoosoon,it’safizzle(lowornoyield).Thecontainmentcannotbea functionofanykindofordinarymaterialcasing,asteelshelloranythinglike that. Those materials would be tissue paper against the (supposed)cumulative power of an explosive chain reaction in fissile material. Thecontainmentmustcomefromacountervailingshockwavewhichverybriefly–

but strongly - constrains the building fission energy. The issue is that at themomentofassembly,theinitiatorreleasesabigsprayofneutrons,sothatearlygeneration neutrons are bypassed. These plentiful neutrons act to build forcessufficient to overwhelm the containment, yet falling far short of the blast youreallywanted.

Whenitstartsoff,ifyouhavealotofneutronstostart,youcan’tkeepittogetherverylong.Itbecomesvapor.

(PhillipMorrison)

But you have to try. The ideal form of containment is the symmetrical shockwaveofimplosion.Thus,we’vepiledupabunchofmotivationsforimplosion.Implosion was used in the Fat Man plutonium bomb to create the criticalassembly, to shrink the plutonium sphere to enable supercriticality, and tocontain the early reaction. This implosion was done by surrounding theplutonium and its outer material layers with precisely crafted explosives thatwere wired to detonate simultaneously, thus increasing the density whileretaining a uniformly spherical (even while shrinking) geometry in the fissilemass, like quickly squashing a softball to golf ball size. Many thousands ofpages have extolled the exquisite engineering of Fat Man’s implosionmechanism.Butlet’sconsiderthewhyandwhereforeofitfrom30,000feetup,andseeifbacktrackingthroughourimplosionmotivationslistshedsanylight.

Itmay seem obvious that squashing somethingwill in some vaguely intuitivewaybuildupenergyorpressurethatmustbeexplosivelyreleased.Inthiscaseit’s a specific increase in density which improves the fission cross-section(likelihoodofproductiveneutroncollisions).Butasolidcanonlybecompressedsomuch.Andnotsoverymuch,becausemostofthe‘space’inasolidiswithinits atoms, not between them. That’s thewhole idea of a solid. The atoms arealreadyprettymuchcheekbyjowl(althoughallotropegeometriescanbeplayedwith)but that littlenucleus isstilla ‘mosquito inMemorialStadium’fromtheincomingneutron’spointofview.

Adistinction isnormallymadebetweenstates ina fissilematerial:subcritical,critical,andsupercritical. It’s roughly analogous to animalpopulations,whichmaybedeclining,stable,orincreasing.Whenfissioneventsarenotoccurring,orareoccurringonlyoccasionallyorwithdecreasingfrequency,themassissaidtobe subcritical.When fission events are occurring at a steady, linear pace thatproduces‘effective’(fission-causing)daughterneutronsatreplacementrate(payitforward), thereactioniscritical:self-sustainingatacertainconstant leveloffissioningandheatgeneration.Ifthematerialcanbekeptcoolenough,thiscancontinueas longas fissionable fuel remains. If somanyeffectiveneutronsareproduced at each generation that the rate of fissioning turns exponential, thematerial issaidtobesupercritical. Ifsuchachainreaction,andtheenergies itproduces,canbecontainedtoprovideforbuildupoverasufficient(brief)time,itsupposedlywillexplode.

ButtheboundarylinesbetweenthesestatesarenotcarvedinstonebyGod.Theconditionstheydenoteareprobabilistic.Inparticular the‘line’betweencriticalandsupercriticalisabroadspectrumofpossibleactivityandoutcomes,spanningavast numerical andprobabilistic landscape.However, noneof those states isexplosive - no matter what kind of enrichment, geometry, assembly,compression,initiation,containmentorreflectionmaybeattempted.

Furthermore, we know that implosive assembly is not required forsupercriticality.Weknowthatfromthefollowingsadhistory:

The demon core was a 6.2-kilogram (14 lb), 89-millimetre-diameter (3.5 in)subcriticalmass of plutonium thatwas involved in two criticality accidents. ItbrieflywentsupercriticalintwoseparateaccidentsattheLosAlamoslaboratoryin1945and1946,andresultedintheacuteradiationpoisoningandsubsequentdeathsof scientistsHarryDaghlianandLouisSlotin.After these incidents thesphericalplutoniumcorewasreferredtoasthe“demoncore”.

(Wikipedia)

Slotin liked toworkwith thecorehalvesbyhand,usingonlyascrewdriver tokeeponepiecejustbarelyawayfromtheother.Onedayhishandslipped,andone piece dropped onto the other, releasing a lethal radioactive particle spray.This shows that implosion is not needed for supercriticality. Two corehemispheresmerelyplacedone atop theothergo lethally critical immediately.The(conventionallyaccepted)reasonthattherewasnoblastisthatcontainmentwaslacking.

Are-creationofthe1946experiment.Theberylliumhemispherecontainingtheplutonium core is held up with a screwdriver, which slipped, placing theplutoniumhemispheresincriticalassembly.

Somewillscoffthatthere’snomysteryabouttheneedforimplosion.Implosionisobviouslyneededforthefollowingreason:

The key idea in implosion assembly is to compress a subcritical spherical, orsometimes cylindrical, fissionable mass by using specially designed highexplosives. Implosion works by initiating the detonation of the explosives ontheir outer surface, so that thedetonationwavemoves inward.Careful designallowsthecreationofasmooth,symmetricalimplosionshockwave.Thisshockwaveistransmittedtothefissionablecoreandcompressesit,raisingthedensitytothepointofsupercriticality.

(nuclearweaponarchive.org)

But we’ve just seen that density and critical assembly can’t be the mainmotivation for implosion. Now let’s talk about containment. So far we’vefocusedonFatMan, theplutoniumimplosionbomb. In thecaseofLittleBoy,critical assembly was not achieved with implosive compression, but by rapidforcedproximity.Ahollowuraniumcylinderwasfiredalongthebarrelofasortofcannon,toforcefititaroundauraniumspikeatthefarendofthe‘gun’.

‘Gun’ type nuclear weapon (Little Boy) Adopting the Coster-Mullen

configuration of hollow rings as the projectile ‘bullet’. Full attribution andcreditsforthisillustrationarein‘Bibliography’section.

It seems the implosion is crucially required to serve as a very short-termcontainment for the forces building in the first instants of criticality. If theenergiesandtemperaturespressingoutwardaretoointensetooearlythedevicewill be destroyed, dispersing the contiguity of atoms needed to propagate thechain reaction, and resulting in low or little blast yield. You want a fewadditional generations of fission before things melt or fly apart – ‘becomevapor’.Implosion,withitsintensesymmetricalincomingshockwave,seemstofitthebill.

But here’s the problem: there was no such ‘containment’ requirement for the‘gun’criticalassemblyusedinLittleBoy.That’sobvious,becausetheexplosiveadjacencycreated therewasnot symmetric.Thedesign thus left at least someunreinforced,orunequallyreinforced,dimensionseffectivelyopenasanescaperouteforenergiesgeneratedearlyintheprocess.This,verybroadlyspeaking,iswhy Little Boy could not have worked. It would become ‘vapor’ (if a chainreactionhadbeeninitiatedatall,whichisdoubtful).

Thesciencehereisradicallydifferentfromthesituationwithfusion,yetacrudeillustrativeanalogycanbemadebetweentheproblemwiththe‘gun’designandthe fatal flaw which doomed Edward Teller’s initial vision for the classical‘Super’hydrogenbomb,whichwastobetriggeredbyafissionexplosionatoneendofatubeoffusionfuel.LosAlamosphysicistRichardGarwinstated:“Youcan’tgetcylindricalcontainersofdeuteriumtoburnbecausetheenergyescapesfaster than it reproduces itself.” The energy is not properly contained to thecylinder.

Nevertheless, according to conventional thought at the time, a ‘gun’ assembly(where there isno implosive, symmetriccompression)ought towork just fine,not only with uranium, but with plutonium also. In fact, a gun assemblyplutonium bomb, ‘Thin Man’, was attempted and abandoned in mid-stream.

Instead they switched over to implosion – but for the plutonium bomb only.Officiallythatswitchoverwasnotmotivatedbyanyoftheconsiderationscitedabove.

GunstyleassemblywasdeemedinfeasiblebecausethemostavailableplutoniumatLosAlamoswaspile-producedPu239 -with thePu240 isotope inextricablymixed in. Skipping over a lot of complications, plutonium contaminatedwithPu240isoverlysensitivetofreeneutronsthatmaybepresentinornearthesub-criticalmass. Free neutrons are those that occur in the natural background orfromspontaneousfission.Ifa‘backgroundneutron’gotitsnoseunderthewire,into the fissilemass, it could trigger supercriticality leading to pre-detonation.That could happen in the fractional time window as the projectile pieceapproaches the targetpiece inside thegunbarrel,at theverymomentofbombdetonation.Forweaponspurposes,pre-detonationreallyisn’t‘detonation’atall.It means a dud bomb that burns itself out before you have a chance to blowanythingupproperly.Afizzle.

Therefore, implosion is supposedly required to create criticality nearlyinstantaneously,triggeringthefullestpossiblefissioningatatimestrictlyofyourownchoosing.Youhavetogocriticalfastenoughtobeatoutanylooseneutrons.

Itwasapparentthatthegunassemblywouldnotgiveahighenoughvelocitytobeattheneutronbackground.ThelaboratorywasreorganizedinAugust1944toapplymajorefforttodevelopinganalternativemethodofassemblingamassofplutonium,theimplosionmethod.


The cover story runs that pile produced plutonium’s greater reactivity (asopposed to U235) forced this design change. But in fact the gun design wasunworkable for any choice of material. Because there is no combination oftimingsandassemblyforcesthatwouldpreventthethingfrommeltingintoslagatdetonation.Iftheneutronbackgroundwasaconcernfortheplutoniumgun,it

shouldhavebeenaconcernfortheuraniumgunaswell.

[It was known to the Project scientists that] cosmic rays, which were morenumerous at LosAlamos, owing to the laboratory’s high altitude (up to 7,000feet),wereinducingfissionintheirU235samples,aneffectshowingupasfalsespontaneousfissioncounts.

(‘CriticalAssembly’Hoddesonetal.)

Neutronscomefromouterspace:

TheEarthandalllivingthingsonitareconstantlybombardedbyradiationfromouterspace.Thisradiationprimarilyconsistsofpositivelychargedionsderivedfromsourcesoutsideoursolarsystem.Thisradiationinteractswithatomsintheatmosphere to create an air shower of secondary radiation, including X-rays,muons,protons,alphaparticles,pions,electrons,andneutrons.The immediatedosefromcosmicradiationislargelyfrommuons,neutrons,andelectrons,andthisdosevariesindifferentpartsoftheworldbasedlargelyonthealtitude.Forexample, the city of Denver in the United States (at 1650 meters elevation)receives a cosmic ray dose roughly twice that of a location at sea level. Thisradiationismuchmoreintenseintheuppertroposphere,around10kmaltitude[32,808feet],andisthusofparticularconcernforairlinecrews.

(Wikipedia)

Nowconsiderthat thegundesignwastobeabomb,transportedanddeliveredbyairplaneataltitudesupto30,000feetorgreater.Theseparationofsub-criticalmaterialwithin thedevicewasdictated,notby theneed toforestall interactionwithbackgroundneutrons,butsimplybythedimensionsoftheB-29bombbay.

InLittleBoy,severalfeetinthegunbarrelseparatedthecriticalmasses,andthedevicewasfuzedtodetonateataround2,000feet.Youmaythinkpre-detonationis strictlyamatterofmicro-ornano-distancesand imperceptible timescalesattheverymomentofassembly,justas‘seating’ofthemassesagainstorintoone

another is occurring. Thus, it wouldn’t be a concern at macro (visible andtangible)scales?Notso.(Keepinmindthat‘pre-detonation’ is, inasense,not‘detonation’ at all but a fizzle pop or complete dud). Consider this fact abouturaniumtransport:

As[uranium]oxideormetalthematerialtravelsinsmallcansthatareplacedinacylinder–afiveinchpipe–thatisbracedwithweldedstrutsinthecenterofan ordinary fifty-five-gallon steel drum. It is for criticality reasons that theuraniumisheldinthecenterwiththeairspaceofthedrumaroundit,foriftoomuchU235, inany form,were tocome tooclose together itwouldgocritical,starttofission,andirradiatethesurroundingcountryside.


Ifthe‘gun’designers,evenforU235,hadbeenserious,theywouldhavehadtoconsidertransportandhandlingofthedeviceagainsttheneutronbackgroundathighaltitude.

Backingupa little, the“implosion”crisisduring the springof1944 isusuallyrepresentedasacombinationof:

1. abandonmentofthe‘gun’assemblymethodfortheplutoniumbomb,duetotheplutoniumisotopemixtureproblemscitedabove.

2. consequent shift of emphasis to the super-innovative and vastly moresophisticatedimplosiondesign.

Youmay wonder why they didn’t apply as much effort to separating out thePU240isotopefromthePUS239(andthussupposedlyrescuingthe‘gun’designfor plutonium) as they endedupdevoting to perfecting the implosionprocess.Goodquestion.Underthecircumstances,thatwouldhavebeenthecorrectcall.They already knew about non-chemical purification methods (the chemicalimpuritiesproblemhadalreadybeensolvedforplutoniumbythistime),asthatwouldhavebeenanalogoustotheU235separationchallenge.Thesamedegreeof fast-turnaround genius innovation could as well have been applied to that

problemastothesuper-subtleanddifficultimplosionthing.Buttheydidn’tgodownthatroad,mainlybecausenothingwouldhavesavedthe‘gun’design.AsanattendeeattheJuly171944meetingrecalledinhisnotes:

Thechoicewastojunkthewholediscoveryofthechainreactionthatproducedplutonium, and all of the investment in time and effort of the Hanford plant,unlesssomebodycouldcomeupwithawayofassemblingtheplutoniumintoaweaponthatwouldexplode.


He’s basically admitting that the insistence on continuing with a plutoniumweapon, though they had a ‘perfectly working’ uranium gun weapon almostreadytogo,wasaPRdecision,notamilitaryone.Rememberthatthemilitaryobjectivewassimply‘abombthatwouldexplode’.Itwassupposedlyinthebag,and all effort should have been devoted to fuel stockpiling and bombmanufactureatthatpoint.

But theremusthavebeenanother realizationat thatsame time, (wecancall itthe ‘gun crisis’). Not only was the ‘gun’ design abandoned for plutonium infavorofimplosion,but the‘gun’designwasabandonedfor theuraniumbombalso. Oppenheimer summarized the cover story in his July 18 1944 report toGrovesasfollows:

Inthelightoftheabovefacts,itappearsreasonabletodiscontinuetheintensiveeffort to achieve higher purity for plutonium and to concentrate attention onmethodsofassemblywhichdonot requirea lowneutronbackground for theirsuccess.Atthepresenttimethemethodtowhichanoverridingprioritymustbeassignedisthemethodofimplosion.


I believe it had become tacitly understood that the uranium gun design wasunworkable.What to do? Openly admit that this path was a dead-end, while

continuingtosincerelypursuetheimplosion?Thatwouldbeproblematicforthefollowingreasons:

1. Thecostandeffortinvolvedinproducingtheenricheduraniumfuelfortheuraniumbomb.Otherusescouldhavebeenfoundfor thaturanium,but itwouldhavebeenfeltasamajorfailure.

2. Thefuture‘success’oftheimplosionoptionitselfwasfarfromguaranteedat the time. If the ‘Thin Man’ gun concept was admitted infeasible (forreasonsquiteapartfromfueltypeorquality)andopenlyabandoned,andiftheimplosionoptionalsofizzled,itmightthenbetoolateortoodifficulttofake anything, to get any kind of result for the Manhattan Project as awhole.

Bettertohedgebetsbycontinuedtweakingofa‘gun’designbombasaparallelshowoperation–knownasLittleBoy.Which,afterall,did turnout tohaveakindofmilitaryutilityinitsownright.Justasafalsepill(placebo)cancurerealdisease, itmayhavebeen reasonably conjectured that a fake bomb, supportedwith proper staging and props, could help end the war on the United Statesterms.Trickeryisthewayofwar.

As the final nail in the coffin of the ‘gun design’ scam (both plutoniumThinMan and uranium Little Boy), let’s consider how Edward Teller’s infamous‘Super’mania (prospect of a hydrogen bomb of arbitrary, evenworld-ending,yield)wastreatedduringthewaryearsatLosAlamos.It’sworthgoingthroughafewquotestoestablishthegeneralthinkingonitbeforeImakethekeypointtyingthistothe‘implosioncrisis’.

For Bethe, Serber, and Oppenheimer, the Super was at best an interestingpossibility - one worthy of further study, but only after the atomic bomb wasalreadyinhand.

(‘BrotherhoodoftheBomb’GreggHerken)

Oppenheimer said that he now believed the superbomb would require aminimumofthreemoreyearstoreachproduction.


EnthusiasmfortheSuperwasprobablyhighestinthefallof1942,when…thedifficultieswithSuperoperationwerenotyetobvious.


Oppenheimer stated: “This possibility has been considered in detail and it ishighly probable that in principle the scheme is feasible. It will need moredevelopment than the gadget. But arrangements should be made that itsdevelopmentfollowimmediatelythecompletionofthegadget.”Thus,whiletheSuper was being discussed by the scientists at the laboratory, it was alreadyclearthattheprojectwasofsecondaryimportance.


ByFebruary1944,itwasclearthatmakingaSuperwouldbefarmoredifficultthan originally thought, and research on the thermonuclear weapon began toreceivelessattention.OnlyTeller’stheoreticalgroupandEgonBretscher’ssmallexperimentalgroupthatmeasuredcross-sectionsrelevanttotheSupercontinuedtoworkon theproblem.…InSeptember1943,Teller feltoptimisticenoughtoask the Governing Board to increase the level of the Super effort. As furtherjustification, Teller cited indications that the Germans were going to usedeuterium for similar purposes. However, the Governing Board recommendedthatnomorethanonefull-timepersonshouldworkontheproblem.InFebruary1944, [Konopinski] suggested increasing the priority of the program. But theboarddidnotwish toexpandSuperwork,because“themembersof theboarddesiredtoproducesomethingthatwouldplayapartinthiswar.”


SohereintheSuperproposal,wehaveaperfectcontrasttohowtheimplosionproposal was treated. The ‘Super’ thing was quite correctly judged to be toocomplex,toouncertain,likelytobetooresource-hungryandjustnotafittothe

rigorous purpose of the Los Alamos lab. As stated at the outset by Serberhimself, the purpose was to make a working bomb for immediate militaryapplication. Itwas to significantly affect, perhapswin, thepresentwar. Itwaswartime! So they did the right thing to relegate the Super to the bench.Now,whataboutthegungadgetandtheimplosionweapon?

The gun gadget offered a sense of security to the laboratory because of itsperceivedsimplicity.Devoidofthetechnicalcomplexitiesofimplosion,thegunofferedscientistsanexcellentchancetodevelopanatomicbombintimetohelpwiththewareffortandfulfillthelaboratory’smissiontobuildabomb.


Sotheyhadaweaponthataccordingtothecoverstory,wasguaranteed(ifyouquibble with the strength of that assertion you are undercutting the wholeorthodoxexplanation,repeatedineveryreferencesource,ofwhythegundevicewasnot tested). Ithadevery imaginablemilitaryadvantageandcouldevenbereadily converted to an artillery shell. With a full complement of these, theUnited States could have leveled Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union andbecome the lastman standing.Which theUSAkind of became anyway – butremember we’re talking about wartime here, the thick of combat, whenoutcomes were not at all certain. The only certainty was: the gun bomb isguaranteedtowork.Itwillobliterateacityoranyothertargetsite–vaporizetheenemyandallhisworksoffthefaceoftheearth.

Onthatbasis,theonlycorrect,logicalandsanemilitarychoicewouldhavebeentoputtheimplosiondeviceasidefortheduration,andconcentrateeverydollar,everyman-hour,everyounceofmaterial,everysquarefootof labspace to the‘gun’bomb.Buildastockpile–now!Therewouldhavebeennothingelseinthemilitarymind,certainlynotinLeslieGroves’mind.Ifyousayuraniumwasstillscarce, I’llagree,butsowasplutoniumat thatpoint.Thesamebulked-loadofgenius thatwasdevoted togettingsymmetrical implosion toworkwouldhavebeenentirelydevoted touraniumenrichment. If thoseweren’t the rightpeople

for thatnewemphasis,Groves shouldhave fired themandgottenhundredsofnewscientistswhowererightforit.Thegundesign’sperfectutilityleftonlyonechallenge, a ‘known’ challenge, a problemwithwell understooddimensions –uraniumenrichment.

Or, if they reallyhad suchamania forpure research,knowing thegundesignwasperfectedineveryotherway,theycouldalsohaveworkedonseparatingoutthePU240isotopefromthepile-producedplutonium,asrequired tokeepThinManviable.That(non-chemical)purificationwouldhavebeenchallenging,butnot necessarily (given the limited knowledge they had at the time of the‘implosioncrisis’)muchmoresothangettingimplosiontoworkatall.

Theonly logical conclusion is that thegundesignwas seen tobea failurenomatter how it was tweaked, no matter what fuel they used. They had todesperatelydoubledown,hopingagainsthopethattheimplosionwouldturnoutto be their ace in the hole. Otherwise, rather than making the speculativeimplosionweaponthefocusofeverything,theywouldhavetreateditastheydidtheSuper–alonger-term,not-for-this-warresearchpossibility.Ofcourse,bytheFAIL hypothesis, the implosion method ended up failing too, but they didcommit toasincereeffortonit. If the‘gun’hadbeenfunctionalasadvertised,theywouldhavestartedfranticallypilingupahugeinventoryof‘gun’bombs,towinthewarandruletheworld.

From that time forward, the ‘gun’ project carried on as a mixture of basicresearchandoperationalscam–butnotasaworkingweaponsprogram.Activitycertainly continued though. After all, a lot of the same elements would beneededforafakeshow-documentation,diagnosticequipmentandexperiments,dimensional analysis, support materials and tools, special laboratories andprojectteams,etc.-asforarealone.

TheSecretLet’sbackupforamomentandpondertheeternalquestionofwillvs.reality.If

a military rationale can be developed for the hydrogen bomb (as currentlyconceived)thenit’snottoogreatastretchtoassumesomebodycouldcookupanequally legitimatemilitary purpose for aDoomsdayweapon. Such a rationalewas humorously described in Stanley Kubrick’s brilliant nuke movie ‘Dr.Strangelove’:

Whenyoumerelywishtoburybombs,thereisnolimittothesize.Afterthattheyareconnectedtoagiganticcomplexofcomputers.Aspecificandclearlydefinedsetofcircumstances,underwhichthebombsaretobeexploded,isprogrammedintoatapememorybank.Ifyoutake,say,fiftyH-bombsinthehundredmegatonrangeandjacketthemwithcobaltthoriumG,whentheyareexplodedtheywillproduce a doomsday shroud. Cobalt thorium G has a radioactive half-life ofninety three years. When it is detonated, it will produce enough lethalradioactivefalloutsothatlethalcloudofradioactivitywillencircletheearthforninetythreeyears!Withintenmonths,thesurfaceoftheearthwillbeasdeadasthemoon!Thedoomsdaymachineisdesignedtotriggeritselfautomatically.Itisdesignedtoexplodeifanyattemptisevermadetountriggerit.Therearethoseofuswhofoughtagainstit,butintheendwecouldnotkeepupwiththeexpenseinvolved in thearms race, the space race,and thepeace race.Ourdoomsdayschemecostusjustasmallfractionofwhatwe’dbeenspendingondefenseinasingleyear.Butthedecidingfactorwaswhenwelearnedthatyourcountrywasworkingalongsimilarlines,andwewereafraidofadoomsdaygap.

(‘Dr.Strangelove’)

Theabovecomiclogicisn’tsodifferentfromtheseriousmilitarythinkingthatgoes into strategic defense and attack planning. So let’s take another look atigniting theatmosphere in the lightof the fictionalexampleabove. Ignitionofthe atmosphere was a question that came up early in the Manhattan Project,mentioned in an earlier chapter (‘Burn the Sky’; BTS hereafter). One couldeasily imagine a sort of Manhattan Project that would have as its goaldevelopmentofpreciselythat:aBTSDoomsdayMachinethatwouldignitetheentire atmosphere. Aswe saw earlier, thiswas brought up as a danger in the

earlystagesoftheManhattanProject.

Inthesediscussions,thebombthatmighthavehadtheside-effectofignitingtheentireatmosphereoftheearthisreferredtoasthe‘Super’–ahypotheticaltruehydrogenbomb,aslater(supposedly)developedforrealbyEdwardTeller.

HorrificasthetheoreticalSupermightbe,therewasstillanother,evengrimmerspecter thathaunted the theorists: thepossibility thatanexplodingsuperbombmight release enough energy to ignite the nitrogen in the atmosphere,incinerating the planet. Bethe dismissed that possibility instinctively and laterclaimedtohavedisproveditwithafewquickcalculations.

BethediscoveredthatTeller’searliercalculationshadunderestimatedtheeffectsof a fundamental process in physics – the manner in which the energy of anuclearexplosionisdissipatedthroughradiation.Notonlydidradiativecoolingkeep the planet safe from incineration by hydrogen bombs,Bethe pointed out,but it probably made the hypothetical Super itself unworkable. Konopinskibriefly rescuedTeller’s thesisbyproposing to light thedeuteriumwith tritium,which has a lower ignition temperature. But Bethe seemingly knocked thattheoryflat,too.


Hans Bethe was a genius physicist and Nobel laureate (1967, stellarnucleosynthesis). He played a key role in all the original work on the fissionbombandthelater‘hydrogen’bomb.I’mnotcitinghimasanexplicitallyinthequesttoexplodethenuclearhoax.Butthistruenuclearside-storymakesaverydeepandrelevantpoint.ThisBTShistoryisagreatillustrationthatsomethingssimplydon’twork,aren’tpossiblegiventhephysicalconstraintsofreality.WhyhasnoBTSmachinebeendeveloped?Don’ttellmeourleadersaretoosaneandhumane and sensible for it.We’re way beyond that kindergarten stuff at thispoint.Thereasonit’snotdoneissolelybecauseitisn’tpossible.

We latter-day analysts may not be geniuses on the order of Hans Bethe. Butnoticehowhedidthejob:‘putinthenumbers’,‘afewquickcalculations’…thatkindofthing.Basically,hewasoneguyandasliderule.Andthat’sallheneededto‘knock that theory flat’.Aswe’veseen in theearlierchapter, thecomputingcapabilitiesofthefullManhattanProjectwerenotmuchbetter:

BetheacknowledgedreceiptoftheIBMmachineson4April,mentioningthatthemachineshadbeenputtouseinimplosioncalculations.Tochecktheprogram,Metropolis and Feynman made parallel calculations using hand-operatedMarchantmachines, staffed by a group of womenwhowere part of the workforceof the laboratory.Like thecomponentsofacomputer,eachcarriedoutaparticular step. Feynman later explained: “We worked out all the numericalstepsthatthemachinesweresupposedtodo-multiplythis,andthendothis,andsubtractthat.”Herecalled,“[Thiswoman]wasthemultiplier,and[thatwoman]wastheadder,andthisonecubed,andwehadindexcards,andallshedidwascubethisnumberandsendittothenextone.Wewentthroughourcyclethiswayuntilwegotallthebugsout.”Thehumancomputeractuallydevelopedspeed-thesameas thatpredicted for the IBMmachines.ButasFeynmannoted,“theIBMmachines didn’t get tired and couldwork three shifts. The girls got tiredafterawhile.”


Thinkofit:acomputerworkingatthe‘samespeed’asabunchofpeoplepassingindex cardsaround.Yet thatmachine, supplemented by individual slide rules,was sufficient for the numerical work on the bomb’s theory, design andengineering. Just to take one example of how almost incalculably far beyondthose StoneAge simulation tools (early IBMmachines or human calculators)anybodywith aMacBook or PC is today, considerMonte Carlo probabilisticsamplingmethods,whichwere:

…centraltothesimulationsrequiredfortheManhattanProject,thoughseverelylimitedbythecomputationaltoolsatthetime.

(Wikipedia)

Monte Carlo statistical sampling methods were pioneered at Los Alamos byStanislawUlam:

The first thoughts and attempts Imade to practice [theMonteCarloMethod]were suggested by a question which occurred to me in 1946 as I wasconvalescingfromanillnessandplayingsolitaires.Thequestionwaswhatarethe chances that a Canfield solitaire laid out with 52 cards will come outsuccessfully? After spending a lot of time trying to estimate them by purecombinatorial calculations, Iwonderedwhetheramorepracticalmethod than“abstractthinking”mightnotbetolayitoutsayonehundredtimesandsimplyobserveandcountthenumberofsuccessfulplays.Thiswasalreadypossibletoenvisagewiththebeginningoftheneweraoffastcomputers,andIimmediatelythought of problems of neutron diffusion and other questions ofmathematicalphysics, and more generally how to change processes described by certaindifferential equations into an equivalent form interpretable as a succession ofrandomoperations.Later[in1946],IdescribedtheideatoJohnvonNeumann,andwebegantoplanactualcalculations.

(‘StanUlam,JohnVonNeumann,andtheMonteCarloMethod’RogerEckhardt)

VonNeumann described application of thesemethods to problems in neutrondiffusion,specifiedtheparametricmodel,andestimatedthecomputationalcost:

Iappendatentative“computingsheet”forthecalculationshown.Itshouldgivea reasonably immediate idea of the amount of work that is involved in theprocedureinquestion.

I cannot assert thiswith certainty yet, but it seems tome that the instructionsgiven on this “computing sheet” do not exceed the logical capacity of theENIAC.Idoubtthattheprocessingof100‘neutrons’willtakemuchlongerthan

thereading,punchingand(once)sortingtimeof100cards;i.e.about3minutes.Hence taking 100 of these ‘neutrons’ through 100 of these stages should takeabout300minutes,i.e.,5hours.


Geologicaltimebycurrentstandards.Andthatwasrunningaseverelysimplifiedmodel:

In his formulation von Neumann used a spherically symmetric geometry inwhichthevariousmaterialsofinterestvariedonlywiththeradius.Heassumedthat the neutrons were generated isotropically and had a known velocityspectrum and that the absorption, scattering, and fission cross-sections in thefissionablematerialandanysurroundingmaterials(suchasneutronmoderatorsorreflectors)couldbedescribedasafunctionofneutronvelocity.Theideathenwastotraceoutthehistoryofagivenneutron,usingrandomdigitstoselecttheoutcomesofthevariousinteractionsalongtheway.


Notethatausablesimulationmustnotonlyincorporaterealisticupgradestoallthe drastic simplifications in Von Neumann’s neutron diffusion model, but itmustincorporatefactorsthatarecompletelymissingthere.Forexample,fissioncreatesnotonlyadditionalneutronstomaintainthechainreaction.Italsocreatesfission fragments, lower-numbered elements that are the shards of the fissilematerial’s atoms after successful encounters. These shards are thenmoving inthe material with their own energy, which contributes to the buildup againstwhichthecontainmentforcemustwork(togivetheexplosivefissionadequatepreparation time before it steps into the spotlight with a big flash-bang). Thefission fragments are thus yet another hindrance in the containment’s ‘raceagainsttime’,onethatisrarelydiscussedormodeledadequately.

Allthatisjustonepartofoneprocess,merelyanexampleofthedemandsmadebyatrulyadequatesimulation.Withcurrentcloud-basedstatisticalandmachinelearning frameworks, these kinds of simulations become trivial.We can evenintegratemuchmoresophisticatedversionsofMonteCarloandotherstatisticalmethods,forexampletheuseofmeanfieldgenetic-typesamplingforestimatingparticle transmission energies, and heuristic natural search algorithms inevolutionarycomputing.

AnyaverageJoenowhasaccesstoaMacBookorPCwithmillionsoftimesthehardware computing and storage power of the entire Manhattan Project, itsaffiliated university-based orbital groups, and all its industrial partners of thetime put together. Those resources are matched or exceeded by the softwaremodeling facilities available that, essentially for free, give you access toanalytical power vastly exceeding all the number-crunching physicists in theManhattanProject.Theseincomparablysuperiorbasicresources,combinedwithoversevendecadesofaccumulatedpublicknowledgeput theamateurmodelerlight-yearsaheadof theManhattanProjectat itspeak.AndifBethecouldruleout‘burnthesky’inafewminutesofslide-ruling,adedicatedmodelercancrackthesecretofexplosivefissionusingtheresourceslistedabove.

And there is a secret of explosive fission. That much is true. But it’s waydifferentthanyoumightthink.We’veseenthatthere’snoseriouslackofnuclearmaterials.We’vealsoseenthattechnicalknowledgeisopenlyavailable.

Half a century of official andunofficial disseminationof information from thenuclearweaponslaboratoriestogetherwiththenormalpublicationprocessesincognate branches of physics and engineering,mean thatmuch of the relevantexplicitknowledgeisnowirrevocablyinthepublicdomain.

(‘TacitKnowledge,WeaponsDesign,andtheUninventionofNuclearWeapons’MacKenzieandSpinard)

MoreandmorecountriesclaimtobejoiningtheNuclearClub.Butdecadeafter

decade,nothinggetsopenlynuked.That’sbecause it’snotpossible.That’s thesecret of explosive fission. Pure FAIL right from the starting gun. But it’s asecret I can only refer to, not fully reveal. The nuclear powers don’t mindgoofupsinmaterialshandling.Theydon’tmindweaponsdesignespionageandtechnical information leaks. As long as revelations and speculations serve toreinforce the FEAR, it’s all good. But they’d come down hard as nails onsomebody who convincingly refuted the entire proposition. Their instrumentwouldbewhatwe’vealreadylookedat:theAtomicEnergyActof1946–bornsecret.

In a previous chapter, we’ve examined the feasibility of a Virtual ManhattanProject.ThereasonIcanasserttheFAILhypothesissoforcefullyisthatIhavecreatedmyownfullsimulationofanucleardevice–actuallyoneofeachtype(LittleBoy,FatMan).Indoingthis,Ihavereliedstrictly,solelyandentirelyonopenlypublishedsourcematerial,includingthetechnicalreferencesusedinthepreparation of this book (see Bibliography) and other open source or publicdomaininformationnotlistedinthisbook.

Publicly accessible simulations of partial aspects of fission have been createdbefore.Buttheyaretoys,becausetheyaccepttherealityofexplosivefissionanddevote the modeling effort mainly to providing a visually appealing show tosupport the starting assumption. The few knobs they provide for user control(howmanyfissileatoms,degreesofcompression,neutrondiffusioncoefficients,etc.) all stem entirely from the initial unquestioning acceptance of the FEARassumption.Theyassumewhattheysetouttoprove.

Current public software simulations and demonstrations of fission are toys,muchalongthelinesoftheearliereffortsatBerkeleyandthefirstphaseoftheManhattanProject.

Most of the theorists lent a hand in the difficult and crucial task ofmodelingneutron diffusion, which was important to both critical mass and efficiencycalculations.ThisefforthadbegunasBerkeleybeforethestartofProjectY,with

theextrapolatedend-pointmethod,formodelingthemovementofneutronsinthebomb. But the assumptions were too simplified for anything other than arudimentary model: all neutrons had the same velocity, the tamper and corewere stationary, every neutron collision was elastic, neutrons were scatteredisotropically,andneutronsinthecoreandtamperhadthesamemeanfreepath.

(‘CriticalAssemblyHoddesonetal.)

My simulations, in contrast, include realistic factors like thoseoutlinedbelow,whichBethe supposedly insistedon.We’ve already seen that things like thesewereomittedinVonNeumann’sproposedmodelingonENIACforthepost-warperiod.Clearly thewartimeManhattanProject didnot have the computationalresourcestoimplementthesekindsoffeatures:

In October 1943, Bethe assigned top priority to finding a more realisticdescriptionofneutrondiffusionthroughthecoreofthebomb.Thatmeanttakingintoaccount the fact that theneutronshadadistributionofvelocities, that theneutronsdidnotscatterisotropically,andthatmeanfreepathsweredifferentinthetamperandthecore.

(‘CriticalAssemblyHoddesonetal.)

Mysimulationstartsabinitio–notfromtheendpointofFEAR(orFAILeitherfor thatmatter)but fromthe theoryknown to theManhattanscientistsand thefinaldesigncomponentsoftheirdevice–butminustheassumptionthatithastowork.Unlikeothersimulations,Irequirethebangasoutput,notinput.

Mymodelisgenerous,inthatIdonotapplyconstraintsbasedonincidentalsofmilitaryapplication.Halfoftheadmittedlybrilliantreverse-engineeringworkbyCoster-Mullenisdevotedtoconformitywithmilitaryconstraintsofthetime,andsynchrony with mission-specific delivery processes used by the 509th. MysimulationisnotconstrainedbydeliverabilityinaB-29oranyothervehicle.Myonly constraints relate to fissionability with historically specified fuels and

materials.ThehardconstraintsIimposearethecommonlyacceptedboundariesandpropertiesof20thcentury,whitebread,mainstreamphysicsonly.Otherwise,Iincorporaterangesofvaluesthatwouldallowthemodeltofunctioninanywaythatcouldconceivablyfitrealitysodefined.

In crafting my software simulation, I have had the advantage of theoretical,engineering, and analytic modeling tools far exceeding what the actualManhattan Project had in their projections, estimates, and component testing.Theresultofmysimulation is this:Explosivenuclear fission isnotpossible.Nuclearweaponsareahoax.TheFEARpropositionisfalse.

Because of the ‘born secret’ thing, I cannot share the code or the quantitativesummaryoftheprinciplethatinvalidatestheFEARhypothesis.Myownworkisbornsecret, self-classified from its creation, legally speaking hidden frommyowneyes.Ican’ttakethechanceoraffordthehassleofbeingextraditedbytheUnited States and charged (or more likely, held indefinitely without charge).That’swhy thisbookemphasizesall theother,circumstantialevidence againstFEAR. I do understand that’s it’s frustrating not to have access to the fullnumericalandprocessproofoftheFAILproposition.

The implosion bomb itself is a fittingmetaphor for the situation.A sphere ofnuclear fissionable material, the bomb’s core, sits at the center, entirelysurroundedbyhighexplosivecharges(whichareused tocompress it tosuper-criticality). If you detonated the high explosives but didn’t get the energybuildupfromthechainreactionin therequirednarrowtimewindow,theresultwould be a nasty bang by normal standards. But it wouldn’t approach theexpectedtotalnuclearannihilationandvaporization.

By analogy, because information relating to the design of nuclear weapons isautomaticallybornclassified,Icannothandyouthe‘core’–theshockingmodelcodewhichrevealsthefalsityofexplosivefission.ButIcanatleastdetonateallthesurroundingstuff–thatis,IcanpresentthereamsofcircumstantialevidenceagainsttheFEARhypothesis.Thathasbeenmygoalwiththisbook.

ThisbookcouldthereforebeseenasonlytheIntroductiontoacompletelistingoftherefutationsimulation.Iunderstandthatreaderswouldprefertoseetherealplutonium-fueledmushroomcloud-thefinalbulletproofquantitativerefutation.Justaswe’d like toseeBethe’soriginalcalculationsforcontradicting theBTSscenario. I’m sorry not to provide the full model here. But use the highlyexplosive circumstantial evidence that I have assembled to detonate yourillusionsabouttheFEARproposition.

‘Implosive charges surrounding core’ as rhetorical metaphor. This book’svoluminouscircumstantialevidence isanalogous to thehighexplosives(white-facedchunks)packedaroundtheoutercircumferenceofthecentralcore,whichrepresentsthefullnumericsimulation.

MoneyShot:TRINITY

Itworks!

FirstwordsofJ.RobertOppenheimeronviewingtheTrinitytestexplosion

After the war was over, Admiral Nimitz visited our laboratory. We describedwhatwedidand that the explosionwas equal to20,000 tonsof dynamite.Hesaid“Youmightbelieveit,butIdon’t”andhewalkedout.

MortonCamac(‘AtomBombs’JohnCoster-Mullen)

The first test of a fully assembled nuclear bombwas the imploded plutoniumGadget,supposedlydetonatednearAlamogordo,NewMexico.

Trinitywas the codenameof the first detonationof a nuclearweapon. ItwasconductedbytheUnitedStatesArmyat5:29amonJuly16,1945,aspartoftheManhattan Project. The test was conducted in the Jornada delMuerto desertabout35miles(56km)southeastofSocorro,NewMexico,onwhatwasthentheUSAAF Alamogordo Bombing and Gunnery Range (now part ofWhite SandsMissileRange).TheonlystructuresoriginallyinthevicinityweretheMcDonaldRanchHouseanditsancillarybuildings,whichscientistsusedasa laboratoryfortestingbombcomponents.Abasecampwasconstructed,andtherewere425peoplepresentontheweekendofthetest.

(Wikipedia)

FortheFAILideatofly,theTrinitytestmusthavebeenfaked.It’softensaidthatextraordinaryclaimsrequireextraordinaryevidence.Theexistenceofexplosivefission, the FEARhypothesis, is certainly an extraordinary claim.But nobodycoulddenythattheTrinitytestisthemostintenselyconvincingeventstoryever

offeredasproofofanything.

Yes,ofall thestoriessupporting theFEARhypothesis, theTRINITYtestsagaandapparentresultisthehardestfornuclearweaponsskepticstohandle.Whenyou see photographs of the explosion, and its aftermath, and then read thetestimonialsof themanywitnesseson thegroundand theobservers in theair,and readaboutvariousnuclear innocentswhonoticedunusualeffects fromfardistances, it seems inconceivable thatanystagingor fakerywas involved. It iswiththeTrinitytestthatafair-mindedreaderwouldbemostjustifiedinclosingthe books on the FEAR hypothesis - in its favor. But I have to play the ballwhereitlies.I’mcommittedtorakingthroughtheembers,lookingforanythingsuspicious-solet’sgettoit.

SomethingLikeanActorTheoretical physicist J. RobertOppenheimerwas the founding director of theLosAlamoslabportionoftheManhattanProject,andisoftencalledthefatheroftheatomicbomb.Interestingly,Oppenheimeronceslippedbyopining,inlateMay1945, that “theatomicbomb is shit”.Historians naturally assume that hewas trying to say that it would be far too powerful to apply to any practical,preciseandpropermilitaryobjective.Still,it’sanoddremark.Morethansixty-fiveGermanandJapanesecitieshadbeenblastedandroastedtorubblebythen.That was seen in the context of the times as highly effective war-fighting –otherwiseitwouldn’thavecontinued.Theatomicbombwouldachievewithoneplane in a few minutes the effect of hundreds of planes loaded to the gillssweepingbackandforthforhours,exposedtoallkindsofhazards.Howcouldatomicsupplementationnotbeperceivedasamilitarilyusefulupgrade?

IfyouthinkthatOppenheimerwasperhapsbasinghiscrudelystatedassessment(above)onaninflatedideaofthebomb’slikelypower(forexample,hemaybethoughtitwouldhavemadeallofHonshuuninhabitableforathousandyears),think again. In the immediately pre-Trinity betting pool held by the scientists,Oppenheimergambledonayieldnumber:300tonsofTNT.Notkilotons.Tons.

Atiny fractionof the20or sokilotons that (by report)actually resulted.So itcan’tbethathefeareditasasuperweapon.

Themanhaddevotedyearsofhis lifeandhisentireprofessional reputation tothe project. How could he say it was ‘shit’?How could he doubt itsmilitaryvalue?Ifhethoughtsuperweaponswereshit,whysignontotheproject inthefirstplace?Or, ifhe reallybelieved itwasa superweapon that couldneverbeused,surelyabrainofhisstaturewouldgraspthat,evenifneverused,suchanobject would be of huge military value in the larger strategic sense ofintimidation,deterrence,etc. If itwereneverused, somuch thebetter.Butwehaveitdirectfromarguablythegreatestmilitarymindofalltime:

是故百戰百勝，非善之善也；不戰而屈人之兵，善之善者也。

Thus, to fight and win a hundred battles is not the ultimate greatness; theultimategreatnessistobeatdowntheenemywithouteverfightingatall.

故兵貴勝，不貴久。

Inwarletyourobjectbevictory,notlengthycampaigns.

(‘TheArtofWar’Sunzi)

Isthatnotalikelyresultofthebomb,ifitcouldbeshownworkingtospec?Andisnotthiskindofbloodlesscapitulationa‘military’benefit?Thebookiscalled‘The Art of War’ after all. Oppenheimer, with his vaunted philosophicalsensitivity would have been alive to this ‘military’ wisdom – if he thought itapplied.ByMay1945,forsomereason,theprospectswerelookingdimtohim.Why?Thetheorysaideverythinghadtoworkperfectly.Andyet‘theatombombisshit’.

Maybeitwasmerelyaslipofthetongue.Or-aslipofthemask?Prize-winningchroniclerofthenuclearageRichardRhodesonceopinedinafilmedinterview:

Oppenheimerwasafascinatingandcomplicatedman.Fundamentallyheseemedtohavehadsomeofthequalitiesofanactor.

Maybethatisawordtothewise,ifwehaveearstocatchthehint.

UnitTesting?To me, the most amazing thing about Trinity was that the Gadget explodedpowerfully and perfectly the first time out. You may chide me and call myastonishment unwarranted. After all, surely they’d made hundreds if notthousandsofsuccessfulcomponenttestspriortoblowingupthefullyassembledfinalproduct.Let’sthinkaboutthatforamoment.

I’mveryfamiliarwithlarge-scalesoftwaredevelopment.Insoftware,testingisabigthing.It’scalledSQA–SoftwareQualityAssurance.Thoughsoftwareandhardwarearenotquitethesamebeast,allcomplexsystemshavesomecommonfeatures.Forsoftware, therearemanylevelsandtypesoftesting,but themaindistinctionforthisdiscussionisbetweenunittestingandintegrationtesting.

Unittestingisdescribedasfollows:

Unit testing refers to tests that verify the functionality of a specific section ofcode, usually at the function level. These types of tests are usuallywritten bydevelopersastheyworkoncodetoensurethatthespecificfunctionisworkingas expected. Unit testing alone cannot verify the functionality of a piece ofsoftware, but rather is used to ensure that the building blocks of the softwarework independently from each other. Unit testing is a software developmentprocess that involves synchronized application of a broad spectrum of defectprevention and detection strategies in order to reduce software developmentrisks, time, and costs. It is performed by the software developer or engineerduringtheconstructionphaseofthesoftwaredevelopmentlifecycle.Unittestingaims to eliminate construction errors before code is promoted to QA; thisstrategy is intended to increase thequalityof theresultingsoftwareaswellas

theefficiencyoftheoveralldevelopmentandQAprocess.(Wikipedia)

Sounittestingiscomponenttestingofpiecesofthefinalsysteminisolation.Ahardware system, especially one as complex as theTrinityGadget, has lots ofsubsystemsthatcanbecheckedinvariouswayspriortofinalintegration.Someaspects of the implosive compression were ingeniously unit tested withradioactivelanthanumplacedatthecenterofa(nonplutonium)testsphere,suchthat recorded changes in gamma rays emitted through the course of the firingevent could be correlated to effects. That’s the kind of thing even I have toadmireandcallcleverexperimentalscience.

But,foranotherexample,thehighexplosiveshellsurroundingthecorehadbeen‘unittested’withblanksjustdayspriortoTrinity–anditfailed.Theexplosive‘lenses’were foundnot tohave firedsimultaneously,and theywouldnothavecompressedthecoreproperly.

Instead of the nuclear core, instruments [were] placed inside the sphere tomeasuretheforceoftheimplosion.Ihadn’tyetheardtheoutcomeofthetest,orevenifithadtakenplace.WhenIarrivedattheTrinitytestsiteIlearnedthatithad failed! Iwonderedwhywewerestillgoingaheadwitha testof thewholegadget… I learnedabit later, theTrinity testwasgoingaheadbecauseBethehadlookedattheblanktestdataandshownthatitwastheinstrumentationitselfthat had failed. Although the lenses might still have been defective, orimproperlydesigned,thefailedtestwasnoproofthattheyweretheproblem.

(‘RiderofthePaleHorse:AMemoirofLosAlamosandBeyond’McAllisterH.Hull)

Firstofall,wecancommendthisexampleofhardware‘unittesting’.That’stheway to go.Butwe can still be appalled by the finding that the test itselfwas(supposedly)theproblem.Thismeansthat,ineffect,nounittestingwasdoneatallonthiscriticalcomponent.Intheworldofprofessionalsoftwareengineering,noprogrammerwoulddareto‘checkin’hispiecewithoutperforminganyunit

tests.Thatwouldbearecipefordisaster.

Inagoodoutfit, thereisafull‘build’everynightandautomatedchecksofthewholesystem,knownasintegrationtests,arerun.

Integration testing is any type of software testing that seeks to verify theinterfacesbetweencomponentsagainstasoftwaredesign.Softwarecomponentsmaybeintegratedinaniterativewayoralltogether(“bigbang”).Normallytheformer is considered a better practice since it allows interface issues to belocatedmorequicklyandfixed.Integrationtestingworkstoexposedefectsintheinterfaces and interaction between integrated components (modules).Progressively larger groups of tested software components corresponding toelementsofthearchitecturaldesignareintegratedandtesteduntilthesoftwareworksasasystem.

(Wikipedia)

Anyunverifiedcomponentmustbeconsideredbroken.Ifthefailedmodulewasyours,youarriveearlythenextmorningtofindthatyoubrokethebuild.Thisisaterriblehittoyourreputationand,what’sworse,youhavetobuypizzaforthewholeteam.

Itwasreallyunnervingwhentheblankshotfailed.Thenormalanxietythatonemight have hadwith a devicewhich you hadworked on butwhich had neverbeentestedwasheightenedbythefailureoftheblankshot.

(McAllisterHullManhattanProjectTechnician)

TheGadgetwascomplex,makeupofmanysubcomponents.Westandinaweofa‘build’thatworkedwitheffectivelynounittestingandonlyoneintegrationrun(Trinity shot). This is unheard of even in fairly modest software systems. Inengineering it would be like building a bridge with steel that had neverundergoneatleastsampletestingofloaddeflectionandstrength.Ohwell.Itwaswartime.Andmaybeappliednuclearphysics,by the standardsof1945,wasa

moretractableandforgivingfieldthansoftwareengineeringhasturnedouttobe.

JumboThestoryofJumboisanotherinterestingTrinitysub-narrative.AtacertainpointoftheProject,somepeopleworriedthattheGadgetmightfizzle;andasaresulttheplutoniumof the failedbombmight endup irrecoverably scattered aroundthetestsite.RecoverabilityoftheplutoniumwasaconcernbecauseatacertainpointoftheProjectitwasthoughtthatplutoniumwouldincriticallyshortsupplyfor the foreseeable future; and the Gadget’s plutonium was worth “severalhundredmilliondollars”.

[Jumbowas] a containment vessel foranunsuccessful explosion,FormanyoftheLosAlamos scientists, Jumbowas the physicalmanifestationof the lowestpointintheLaboratory’shopesforthesuccessofanimplosionbomb.Thebombwould be placed into the heart of Jumbo, and if the bomb’s detonation wasunsuccessful, the outer walls of Jumbo would not be breached, making itpossibletorecoverthebomb’splutonium.

(Wikipedia)

***

Jumbo-theGadget’sunusedcontainmentvessel.

Thentherewasasuddenchangeofplan.

After extensive research and testing of other potential containment ideas, theconceptofJumbowasdecidedoninthelatesummerof1944.However,bythespringof1945,afterJumbohadalreadybeenbuiltandtransported(withgreatdifficulty) to theTrinitySiteby theEichleayCorporationofPittsburgh, itwasdecidednot toexplode theTrinitydevice insideofJumboafterall.Therewereseveralreasonsforthisnewdecision:first,plutoniumhadbecomemorereadily(relatively) available; second, the Project scientists decided that the Trinitydevicewouldprobablyworkasplanned;andlast, thescientistsrealizedthat ifJumbowereuseditwouldadverselyaffectthetestresults,andadd214tonsofhighlyradioactivematerialtotheatmosphere.

(NationalAtomicMuseum)

That’s the story. But maybe “by the spring of 1945” exactly the oppositesituation prevailed. How confident were the scientists that “the Trinity devicewouldprobablyworkas planned”?Here’swhat aManhattanProject physicisthadtosayaboutthat,explaininghisbetofzeroyieldfortheGadgetinthepre-Trinitypool:

Ibetzero.Ithinkthatwasthemostintelligentbetofanybecausezeroincludednotonlyzerobutitalsoincludedthefirst25generationsofneutrons,andthisisan exponentially growing thing, so it’s probably the first 35 generations ofneutrons.Andifitstoppedanywherealongthere,itwouldbezeroonthescalethattheyhad.SoIhad,statistically,thebestchanceofwinning.

(NobelLaureateNormanRamsey)

By the spring of 1945, the scientists realized that they’d have to stage a fakedemonstration. In committing to that scenario, the idea of providing for apossible fizzle is absurd. The fizzle is not scripted into the fake-out. ItwouldnullifythewholepointoftheKabukinukeexercise.Notonlythat,buthavingtointimately configure a fake bomb in, around, or beside a strong container likeJumbocomplicates life.The fake (a largenon-nuclearexplosion)mightnotbepowerfulenoughtototallydestroythecontainer,asagoodnukeshould.ButifJumboweretobesetupata“justso”distance(say,800yards)fromthefakedblast, the absence of damage might seem natural enough. Certainly nobodywouldquibbleabouta lackof totaldestruction(nobodydid).Theverystrangeofficialstoryabouttheplacementwas:

…theplanwastoerectthevessel800yardsfromGroundZero,sothatitcouldstandreadytocontainthenextfull-scaleorpartial-scaletest.


Atrulybizarrerationale.It’struethatJumbowasn’teasytomove,butsituating

it800yardsawayfroma20kilotonnuclearblastisnotkeepingthisexpensiveobject“ready”andpristineforlateruse.IfJumbowasalotoftroubletomove,surelyconstructinga specialmounting tower andhoisting it up inharm’sway(even closer to thebomb’sdetonation altitude than if they’d just left it on theground) was asmuch trouble. They could have protected it better (to keep it“ready”)withmuch less troubleby justbulldozing somedirtover it.Anyway,Jumbo’smountingtowerwasblownapartbythetestblast,andJumbocametorestonthedesertfloor.Andthere(havingsurvivedtheGadget’s‘nuclearblast’as well as General Groves’ 1946 attempt to have it demolished by highexplosives),itsmutilatedcarcassreststothepresentday.

Jumbo sitting among the ruins of its 70 foot steel tower after the Trinity test.Note that the Jumbo tower might have been blown up in a separate andsubsequent operation, as opposed to being a by-product of the main Trinityshow.

100-TonTestIt’snotwidelyknownthatababyblasttestwasconductedpriortotheGadget’srealmoneyshot.Thisiscalledthe100-TonTest.

ArehearsalwasheldonMay7,1945,inwhich108shorttons(96longtons;98t)ofhighexplosivespikedwithradioactiveisotopesweredetonated.

(Wikipedia)

20-foothighplatformfor100-tonhighexplosivetest.

Because there would be only one chance to carry out the test correctly,Bainbridgedecidedthatarehearsalshouldbecarriedouttoallowtheplansandprocedurestobeverified,andtheinstrumentationtobetestedandcalibrated.A20-foot(6.1m)highwoodenplatformwasconstructed800yards(732m)tothesouth-eastofTrinitygroundzeroand108longtons(110t)ofTNTwerestackedontopofit.Flexibletubingwasthreadedthroughthepileofboxesofexplosives.AradioactiveslugfromHanfordwith1,000curies(37TBq)ofbetarayactivityand400curies(15TBq)ofgammarayactivitywasdissolved,andHempelmannpouredit intothetubing.ThefireballoftheconventionalexplosionwasvisiblefromAlamogordo Army Air Field 60miles (97 km) away, but therewas littleshock at the base camp 10 miles (16 km) away. Shields thought that theexplosionlooked“beautiful”,butitwashardlyfeltat15,000feet(4,572m).

(Wikipedia)

Does this qualify as ‘integration testing’? No. There were essentially nocomponentsof theactualGadgetusedhere.Butnotice thateven this infinitelysimplertesthad,aswemightexpect,aglitch.

An electrical signal of unknown origin caused the explosion to go off 0.25secondsearly,ruiningexperimentsthatrequiredsplit-secondtiming.

(Wikipedia)

Anythinglikethiselectricalerror,whichasstatedabovewasneverunderstood,diagnosed or corrected, would have completely trashed the real Trinity shot.BecausetheGadget,farmorethanthe100-Ton‘experiments’,cruciallyreliedonsplit-secondtiming.

The100-Tontestresultedina5-foot(1.52m)deepand30-foot(9.14m)wideblast crater. Here is a shot of the Wiki page for this statement (in case it’schangedlaterinresponsetothisbook):

Descriptionofthe100-Tontestandblastcratersize(highlightedfragment).

IhighlightthecratersizeintheWikiscreenshotforcomparisonwhenwegettotherealGadgetshow,justbelow.Notetheradioactivespikingdescribedforthistest. In effect this was the first ‘dirty bomb’ (non-nuclear radiation scatteringdevice). ItmayhavebeendeemeddesirablebyMay1945 topre-seed the testareawithsomeconfounding radioactivity inpreparation for thebig fake.Notethatatthetime,evenscientistsweren’tsurehowpersistentexplosivelyscatteredradiationwouldturnouttobe(witnessthecrazy-quiltofconflictingpredictionsandassessmentslatermaderegardingtheHiroshimaaftermath).

As for theexplosion itself, it’s interesting thatanicesequenceofcolorphotos(ormotionpicture)wasmade.UnfortunatelyIcan’treproducethenicesunset

hueshere,butuseyourimaginationtofillinlotsofyellow,red,andorange.

100-Tontestexplosion,colorsequence.

TheNewYorkTimes ina2010article reported; that: “Nuclear specialists saythe shape and size of aweapon[’s explosion]… can reveal design secrets.” Iwouldhavethoughtso– that’swhythetestfilmswereinitiallyclassified.Theentire “100-Ton” frame sequence is usually offered, at Wikipedia and manyotherestablishmentsites,likeAtomicHeritageFoundation,ashistoricalresearchfootage, a record of the 100-Ton test. At the same time, this exact footageappears inthe1947film‘TheBeginningortheEnd’(acheesyb/wdocudramaabout theManhattan Project) – presented as a depiction of the actual Trinitygadget explosion. It’s possible that (through film consultants Groves andOppenheimer) the filmmakers got access to the real 100-Ton (originallyclassified) test footage, asStanleyKubrickdid in using ‘real’ test film for thefinaleofDr.Stranglove.Ortheremaybesomeotherconfusionhere.

In any case, there was said to be a color sequence of the 100-Ton test, fromwhichI’veselectedthreeframes.Bycontrast,thevastlymoreinstrumentedandimmeasurably more significant Gadget blow was not documented in color –apart from a single almost accidental snapshot by somebody who was notofficiallytaskedaspartofthecoreTrinitycamerateam.

Jack W. Aeby (August 16, 1923 – June 19, 2015) was an Americanenvironmental physicist most famous for having taken the only well-exposedcolorphotographofthefirstdetonationofanuclearweapononJuly16,1945attheTrinitynuclear test site inNewMexico.Whilecolormotionpicturesof theTrinity test were made, most were badly overexposed or damaged due to thefireball’stendencytoblisterandsolarizethefilm.Aebywasacivilianassignedto the Health Physics Group with Emilio Segrè at the time his snapshot wastaken.

(Wikipedia)

Withoutareferenceforactualdistanceandexpectedyield,couldyoudeterminethefundamentaldifferencebetweenthetwotests?

Theonlycolor(useyourimagination)photographoftheGadgetJustaftertheinitialflashand‘dome’phase.

Ofcourse, lying face-down feet-first to theblast at timezerodoesn’t aid fine-graindiscernmenteither.

Everyonewastoldtoliefacedownontheground,withhisfeettowardtheblast,to close his eyes, and to cover his eyes with his hands as the countdownapproached.

(‘NowItCanBeTold’LeslieGroves)

Howtowitnessanuke–feetfirst,faceaway.

Ifyouthinkthatfurtherscalingupofapseudo-nukeoperationlikethe100-Tontestwouldbeimpossibleorunlikely,Iseeyourcomplaintandraiseyou‘SailorHat’.

OperationSailorHatwasaseriesofthreetestsofexplosiveseffects,conductedby theUnitedStatesNavyon the islandofKaho‘olawe,Hawaii in1965.Theywere non–nuclear tests employing large quantities of conventional explosives(i.e.TNT)tosimulatetheeffectsofanuclearweaponblast,suchastheeffectsuponnavalvessels.Inaddition,seismologicaldata,underwateracoustics,radiocommunications, cratering, air blast effects, cloud growth, fireball generation,andelectromagneticdataweregathered.Each“SailorHat”testconsistedofadome-stacked 500-ton (450 t) charge of TNT high explosive detonated on theshoreofKaho‘olawe.

(Wikipedia)

500tonsofTNT(20×40feet)awaitingdetonationatOperationSailorHat.

IAmBecomeDeathItislikesomeweirddream,conceivedbyonewithtoovividanimagination.

(AbeSpitzer,radaroperatorofB-29TheGreatArtiste,onviewingfilmofTrinitytestexplosion)

Wefinallyarriveatthecrownjewelof‘extraordinaryevidence’-thedarksaga’sclimax with the sci-fi weapon that was ‘brighter than a thousand suns’. TheTrinityGadget test bombwas the ultra-complexdesignof implosion-triggeredplutonium,nearlyexacttwintoFatMan.Nothingremotelylikethismachinehadeverbeenintegrationtested.Thetheoryonwhichitwasbasedwasincompleteand poorly understood at best, or plain wrong. The key detonation timing

componentseemedtohavefailed justdaysbefore,or,speakingmoreproperly,was for all practical purposes never properly component tested, as we sawearlier.Yetthisthingfunctionedexactlytospeconitsveryfirstroadtest.

Hereweretheoriginaltestsiteselectioncriteria:

The LosAlamos scientists established the following criteria for the [testshot]site:

flat terrain to minimize effects of the blast and to facilitate easyconstructionofroadsandcommunicationlines;sufficient distance from populated areas but close to Los Alamos tominimizetravelbetweenthetwosites;clear and sunnyweather onaverage to permit the extensive collectionofopticaldata;andconveniencetogoodrailtransportation.

(DraftFinalReportofCDC’sLAHDRAProject)

Note: “flat terrain to minimize effects of the blast”. Yet later, Hiroshima waschosenpartlyforitsflatterrainthatwould“maximizetheeffectsoftheblast”.

Note“clearandsunnyweather topermitextensivecollectionofopticaldata”.Yet for the actual test: The preferred time was several hours before dawn(Hoddesonetal.1993).Itendedupscheduledforpre-dawndarknessof4AM,withhigh-powerspotlightssetuptopinpointthetowerforaerialobservation.Itwasdelayedbyweatherconcernsuntil5:30AM-whenitwasstilldark.

At05:29:21MWT(±2seconds),thedeviceexplodedwithanenergyequivalenttoaround20kilotonsofTNT(84TJ).Thedesert sand, largelymadeof silica,melted and became a mildly radioactive light green glass, which was namedtrinitite.Itleftacraterinthedesert5feet(1.5m)deepand30feet(9.1m)wide.(Wikipedia)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silica

Aquestionarisesaboutthecrater.You’llnoticeitiscitedasthesamesizeasthecrater fromthe100-Ton test–5 feetdeepand30feetwide. I’m including theWikipagehere,incaseoflaterchange.

TrinitydetonationpageonWiki,withcratersizehighlightedatbottom.

Wewonderwhythecraterswereaboutthesamesize.Therewasadifferenceintheheightofdeployment–20feetupfor the100-Tontestvs.100feet for theGadget.ButtheGadgetwas20,000tonsofTNTequivalent–comparedto100tons. Itmight be expected to havemademore of a dent in the sand.Here’s agroundlevelviewofthatcrater:

Trinitycrater.

Here’sanotherview:

Trinity‘crater’walk,featuringGeneralLeslieGroves.It’snotclearwhetherthelowerdarkhorizontallineinbackgroundmarkstheshallowbombcraterliporisapre-existingfeatureonthesite.

In 1946 the USA detonated a (supposed) nuclear device of comparabledimensionsnearBikiniatollinthePacific,aspartof‘OperationCrossroads’.

Operation Crossroads was a pair of nuclear weapon tests conducted by theUnited States atBikiniAtoll inmid-1946.Theywere the first nuclearweapontestssinceTrinityinJuly1945,andthefirstdetonationsofnucleardevicessincetheatomicbombingofNagasakionAugust9,1945.Thepurposeofthetestswastoinvestigatetheeffectofnuclearweaponsonwarships.

(Wikipedia)

Theshotcode-namedBakerisdescribedasfollows:

InBakeronJuly25,theweaponwassuspendedbeneathlandingcraftLSM-60anchored in themidst of the target fleet. Bakerwas detonated 90 feet (27m)underwater,halfwaytothebottominwater180feet(55m)deep.

(Wikipedia)

Baker’s yield is estimated at 23 kilotons, vs. about 20+/- kilotons TNTequivalent for Trinity. So Baker wasn’t all that wildly more powerful thanGadget. The Baker device was a Fat Man plutonium implosion-type nuclearweaponsimilartothatdroppedonNagasaki.Herewasthesupposedeffect:

Theresultcreatedashallowcraterontheseafloor30feetdeepandnearly2,000feetwide.


Ifa30-footcraterdepthis‘shallow’,whatwordapplies to theTrinity test’s5-footcrater?Consideringthatbothdeviceswerenearlythesameheightabovethesurface(100feetabovedesertforGadget,90feetaboveseafloorforBaker),thisdiscrepancy in crater depths is interesting. Perhaps that’s due to the effect ofwater buffering (as a less compressivemedium than air - but that could havefunctioned equally well to protect the sea floor). It’s an interesting researchproblem.

It’s possible that amongall thedetails necessary to arrange for a goodTrinitydisplay,thecratersizeissuewasoverlooked.Oritmayhavebeendifficulttodipoutagoodsizecraterwithinthetimeandlogisticalparametersrequiredbyotherparts of the operation (tower construction etc.)By the time ofBaker’ perhapstheyweredetermined to fluffup thispreviouslyoverlookedelementofagoodnuclearshowwithamoreexaggeratedreport.

September1945:GeneralGroves,OppenheimerandotherscientistsinspectingGroundZero.

TrinititeTrinitite,alsoknownasatomsiteorAlamogordoglass,istheglassyresidueleftonthedesert flooraftertheplutonium-basedTrinitynuclearbombtestonJuly16, 1945, nearAlamogordo,NewMexico. The glass is primarily composed ofarkosic sand composed of quartz grains and feldspar (both microcline andsmaller amount of plagioclase with small amount of calcite, hornblende andaugite in a matrix of sandy clay) that was melted by the atomic blast. It isusuallyalightgreen,althoughcolorcanvary.Itismildlyradioactivebutsafetohandle.

(Wikipedia)

The interesting thing about Tinitite is how little of it seems to be reported at

other test sites.However,Trinititeor somethingvery like it is foundonearth,formedbynaturalcauses.It’scalledtektite.

Theglassisaformoftektite,awordwhichcomesfromtheGreekwordtektos,meaningmolten.However, it isnotknownyet if tektiteswerefirstproducedonthemoonandthenejectedasmeteoriteswhichlandedonearthorwhethertheywereproducedasaresultofanimpactonearth.Anothertheoryhasitthattheglass was not a result of a meteor impact but of a “radiative melting frommeteoricaerialbursts”whichmakestheglassanalogoustotrinitite(which iscreatedfromsandblastedbythermalradiationofanuclearexplosion).

(www.sandia.gov/news/publications/technology/2006/0804/glass.html)

Planetary scientist Farouk El-Baz has just discovered “the largest crater yetfound in theSahara,”and is suggesting that ithas the rightcharacteristics toanswer a long-standingmystery.Since 1932, scientists have been picking upyellow-greenglassina60-by-100-kilometer(35-by-60-mile)areaofthedesertofsouthernEgyptneartheLibyanborder.Studyof theglasshasrevealedtheunmistakableisotopicsignatureofanasteroidimpact,butthesourcecraterhasneverbeenfound--untilnow.

(ScienceMagazineMarch3,2006)

There have been odd reports over the years of people claiming to havecriminallybrokenthroughtheTrinitysite’ssecurityfenceandscrapedupallthetrinitite intobagsand truckloads for ‘sacred re-burial’ elsewhere.TheArmy isalso said to have at some point dumped soil all over the flats, and there havebeenother reported shenanigans.Meanwhile, fake trinitite iswidely available.Anyconclusionontrinititewillhavetowaitforfurtherresearchintoothertestsites,additionalnaturalsites,andexcavationandforensicanalysisoftheTrinitycrateritself.

http://www.sandia.gov/news/publications/technology/2006/0804/glass.html

FoolMeTwice:Japan1945

HiroshimaEverythingina2mileradiusoftheexplosion’sepicenterwasvaporized.

(‘TheManhattanProject:TheMakingoftheAtomicBomb’AlCimino)

Thereyouhaveit.‘Everything’was‘vaporized’.Includingthepeople.Butwait:

The [nuclear] scientist later became annoyed with me when I showed him apaperinwhichIhadwrittenthatmanypeopleinHiroshimawere“vaporized”bythebomb.Hepointedoutthatthecorrecttermwas“carbonized”.“That’stheproblemwithnonscientists:youaresosloppywithdetail,”headded.

(‘PeopleoftheBomb’HughGusterson)

Hmm…anothermulti-culturalmoment.But I’m inclined tobemore forgivingabout that kind of sloppiness. Sometimes it’s hard to know, inMarvinGaye’simmortalwords,what’s going on. Evenwhen bodies aren’t vaporized,merelycarbonized,canwereallybecertainitwasaneffectofTheBomb?Whatwouldyou say about the bodies in this photograph? Atomic carbonization? Orconventionalnapalmcooking?

Sci-finuclearcarbonizationofpeople?Ormerelyconventionalcarbonization?Youbethejudge.

LittleBoyBut before we get to the really horrifying stuff, let’s back up to the boringquestionof testingonceagain, this time for adifferentdevice than theTrinityGadget. If the Trinity test is the most impressive chunk of ‘extraordinaryevidence’ for the (putative) existence of explosive fission chain reactions, theLittleBoyuraniumbomb‘gun’designlies(Iusethetermadvisedly)attheotherendofthescale.Itisthemostbafflingandalmostridiculous‘just-sostory’oftheentiremiserablenuclearsaga.

Let’sstartwiththebombitself.RememberthattheTrinitytest’sGadgetwasthemore complex plutonium implosion design. Little Boy was the much simpleruranium ‘gun’ design, as described in the previous chapter.Whatwas the testtrackrecordofthis‘AcmeAtomicBombs’devicebeforecombatuse?

Althoughallof itscomponentshadbeentestedintargetanddroptests,nofull

test of a gun-type nuclear weapon occurred before Hiroshima. There wereseveralreasonsfornottestingaLittleBoytypeofdevice.Primarily, therewasinsufficient uranium-235. Additionally, the weapon design was simple enoughthat it was only deemed necessary to do laboratory tests with the gun-typeassembly. Unlike the implosion design, which required sophisticatedcoordinationof shaped explosive charges, the gun-type designwas consideredalmostcertaintowork.Thirty-twodroptestswereconductedatWendover,andonlyoncedidthebombfail to fire.Onelast-minutemodificationwasmade, toallowthepowderbagsofpropellantthatfiredtheguntobeloadedinthebombbay.

(Wikipedia)

Notethatthe‘droptests’referredtotherewereofdummies,notnucleardevicesofcourse.

InAugust1944Groves reported to theTopPolicyGroup that the scientistsatLos Alamos were sufficiently confident of the uranium gun working that theyadviseditcouldbeusedincombatwithoutapriortest.


LittleBoywasthefirstatomicweaponeverdeployedinabattlespace.Itwasn’tjustamatteroframmingsomemetaldownatubewithahighexplosiveblast.Itwastobethefirstexplosivenuclearchain-reactioneveroccurringinadeployedweapon, aphenomenon that,up to themoment thatLittleBoy shipped,wasapurelytheoreticalidea.NotewhenLittleBoy’spartsshippedout:

Thetargetandbombpre-assemblies(partlyassembledbombswithoutthefissilecomponents) leftHuntersPointNavalShipyard,California,on16JulyaboardtheheavycruiserUSSIndianapolis.

(Wikipedia)

ThismeansthatbeforeTrinity,beforetherehadeverbeenafissionexplosiononplanet Earth, Little Boy had begun its combat deployment. (The naughty bitsfollowed a few days later on separate transport.) That’s how confident theProject’stechteamandbrasswereaboutaweaponthatnotonlyhadneverbeenused,andneverbeenintegrationtested,butthatwasbasedonatheorythathadneverbeentestedeither.

Here’s one of the big reasons for the no-test thing, as cited in theWikipediaentry:Primarily,therewasinsufficienturanium-235.‘Primarily’.Isittrue?

By November 1944, all nine Alpha racetracks [uranium enrichment facilities]wererunningatfullcapacity–dailyfeedingmorethan100gramsofU235intotwo Beta tracks. Weekly shipments of enriched uranium to Los Alamos hadbegun.JustbeforeThanksgiving,LawrencetelephonedGrovesfromOakRidgetoexultthat“thingsarereallyboomingdownhere.”TheproductionofU235inNovember equaled all previousmonths combined. InDecember came anothernewrecord:nearly200gramsofuranium,80-percentpureU235,wereleftinthereceivers after a single day’s run.All nineAlpha tracks and threeBeta trackswereincontinuousoperationforthefirsttime.


Furthermore,ifuraniumsupplywastheonlylimitationonanotherwiseproven,guaranteed, war-ending, world-beating weapon system, then research andproductioneffortshouldhavedoubledortripledonthat,totheexclusionofanyotheractivity.Itwaswartime.

ButIshouldn’tMonday-morningquarterbacktheseguystoohard.Afterall,theywere right - it worked straight from the box, as we’ll see in the attack storyfurtherbelow.Butlet’sthinkabouttheimplicationsofthisforaminute.Firstofall,wehavetoadmireandapplaudtheManhattanProjectbombdesigners.Notfor making a fancy new-fangled sci-fi weapon, but for exactly the oppositeachievement. They created something that fits a weapons guy’s far more

significant design goals: robust, reliable, unbreakable, practically field-strippable,andsoon.That,notsophisticationandcomplexity, iswhatmakesaclassicweapondesign for theages.TheLittleBoydevice ranks rightupwith,indeedcanonlybecomparedto,thegreatestweaponsdesigntriumphofthe20th

century,(maybeeventheGOAT-GreatestOfAllTime)–theKalashnikovrifle:

TheAK-47,orAKasitisofficiallyknown(alsoknownastheKalashnikov)isaselective-fire(semi-automaticandautomatic),gas-operated7.62×39mmassaultrifle,developedin theSovietUnionbyMikhailKalashnikov.Evenafteralmostsevendecades,themodelanditsvariantsremainthemostpopularandwidelyused assault rifles in theworld because of their substantial reliability underharsh conditions, low production costs compared to contemporary Westernweapons,availabilityinvirtuallyeverygeographicregionandeaseofuse.TheAK-47 has been manufactured in many countries and has seen service witharmed forces as well as irregular forces worldwide, and was the basis fordeveloping many other types of individual and crew-served firearms. Of theestimated500millionfirearmsworldwide,approximately100millionbelongtotheKalashnikovfamily,three-quartersofwhichareAK-47s.

(Wikipedia)

Nowthatisaweaponsdesignfortheages.Andifwebelievetheofficialstory,theLittleBoywas in this sameelite realmofweapons thatarepreternaturally“reliable, cheap, and easy to use”. Just think: Little Boy, with no integrationtesting, relying on physics that had never been demonstrated, was shippedhalfwayaroundtheworldwithgodknowswhatkindofmanhandlingalongtheway,inwartime,bouncedalloverinitsdeliveryvehicle,andfunctionedunderunpredictable and variable parameters of temperature, moisture, altitude,vibration,etc.–functionedperfectlytospec.

To get a sense of the kind of thing that could have happened, consider theassemblyoftheTrinityGadget(whichwaspreppedundercomparatively‘ideal’conditions).

Inserting theplugcourteddisaster, teammemberBoyceMcDanielremembers:“Itwasthrough[anopening]thatthecylindricalplugcontainingtheplutoniumand initiator was to be inserted… In order to maximize the density of theuraniuminthetotalassembly,theclearancebetweentheplugandthesphericalshell had been reduced to a few thousandths of an inch.Great care had beenexercised to make sure… that mating pieces had been shipped to [Trinity].Imagineourconsternationwhen,aswestartedtoassemblethepluginthehole,deep down in the center of the high explosive shell, it would not enter!Dismayed,wehaltedoureffortsinordernottodamagethepieces,andstoppedtothinkaboutit.Couldwehavemadeamistake…?”

Bachersawthecauseandcalmedthem:theplughadwarmedandexpandedinthehotranchhousebutthetamper,setdeepwithintheinsulationofitsshellofhighexplosives,wasstillcoolfromLosAlamos.Themenleftthetwopiecesofheavymetalincontactandtookabreak.Whentheycheckedtheassemblyagainthetemperatureshadequalized.Theplugslidsmoothlyintoplace.

(‘TheMakingoftheAtomicBomb’RichardRhodes)

ThiskindofthingcouldeasilyhavefouledupLittleBoysomewherealongtheline.The ‘gun’designcalled foracylindrical ringprojectile tobe firedontoacentral spike of U235 metal. The sudden assembly was supposed to yield acriticalmassthatcouldbeinstantaneouslytriggeredbyasmallneutronsource.Itwasballisticallyprecisefemale-to-maleinstantaneous‘seating’oratomicsexifyou will. These components had been jostled, bumped and man-handledthousandsofmilesoverland,seaandair,andwerenowfinallytobedeliveredalltogetherfrom30,000feetaltitudedowntothedetonationlevelaround2,000feet.The temperatureeffectsaloneboggle themind.Heat,cold, re-heating, re-freezing–allkindsofthingscouldhavethrowntheseprecisealignmentsoutofwhackatanypoint.

Supposeacommander,inthemiddleofawar,hadaguaranteedsupplyofAK47rifles-abattlerifleof incomparableeaseandspeedofdeployment,aswellas

absolutereliabilityandversatilityinthemud,crud,dirtandblood.Supposethiscommander,abouttotakethefield,knewallabouttheAK’ssuperioreconomicsof manufacture, training, and maintenance; and knew its brain-dead simpletraining, transport, field-stripping, cleaning and assembly.But then, a scientistcamealongandsaid:

Wait-IhavetheM16,acompletelydifferent,incompatibledesignthatisvastlymorefinickyandtroublesome.Thisisanewweaponwithcomplexandunprovenballistics,it’smuchhardertodisassembleandclean,farmorelikelytojam,anditusesa totallydifferentammo thanwhatyou’vealreadybegun toplan for. Itmight notwork, as it needs an unspecified period of further development andinvention.Itcan’tjustbebangedoutonabackyardironworks,youneedprecisehigh-techmachinetoolstomanufactureit.HowmanyshallIsignyouupfor?

WhathonestcommanderwouldturnhisbackontheAK,destroyallplans,andneverlookatitagain?ItsmellsmorelikeconcealingtheevidenceonastrictlyKabuki shell of an atomic ‘weapon’. Basically it was abandoned afterHiroshima.

After thewar ended, it was not expected that the inefficient Little Boy designwouldeveragainberequired,andmanyplansanddiagramsweredestroyed.

(Wikipedia)

Excuse me? This thing that cost umpteen billions in today’s money, thatfunctioned perfectly under combat conditions without integration testing, theverymodelofAK-styleweaponsdesignphilosophy–andtheydestroyedplansanddiagrams?Theydumpedit?No,wait.The“inefficientLittleBoy”design,orthatdesignfamily,wasinfactmanufacturedfordeployment,andthesamebasictypewas(supposedly)firedoffexactly3moretimes:

(1)A test firing of theW9 11-inch nuclear artillery shell in test shotUpshot-KnotholeGrableonMay25,1953

(Wikipedia)

(2)TheW33wasanAmericannuclearartillery shell, fired fromaneight-inch(203mm)M110howitzerandM115howitzer.A totalof2,000W33projectileswereproduced,thefirstofwhichwasmanufacturedin1957.TheW33remainedin service until 1992.The W33 is the third known model of gun-type fissionweapons to have been detonated as a test. TheW33was tested twice, first inOperationPlumbbobLaplace,onSeptember8,1957(yieldof1kt),andtheTX-33Y2 in Operation Nougat Aardvark on May 12, 1962, with a yield of 40kilotons.

(Wikipedia)

So despite the fact that the tech specs and diagrams were destroyed, it wasreinvented from scratch, was manufactured, and “remained in service” until1992. This again shows how simple and perfect a design it was, that it wascobbled together again after being decommissioned and having its tech specsdestroyed.Thewhole story of the ‘gun’ designbombs remindsmeofWileE.CoyotesettingupforashotatRoadrunner.

I’m sure there were good secret reasons for all these illogical actions andconflictingclaims.So let’sconfineourselves to thedeeperquestion:was thereno integration testing…because theywere so sure itwouldwork?Orbecausethey’dbecomesosureitwouldn’tworkthatthey’dmadeotherplansforstagingafakeJapanatomicoperation,andcouldrelaxaboutLittleBoy’sperformance(assuming thereevenwasanysincereattemptata functionalLittleBoy in thefirst place)? There are two situations where no test is run:when you know itworks,andwhenyouknowitdoesn’t.

Firestorm!

A firestorm is a conflagration which attains such intensity that it creates andsustains its own wind system. It is most commonly a natural phenomenon,created during some of the largest bushfires andwildfires. Although theword

has been used to describe certain large fires, the phenomenon’s determiningcharacteristic is a firewith its own storm-forcewinds from every point of thecompass. The Black Saturday bushfires and the Great Peshtigo Fire areexamples of forest fires with some portion of combustion due to a firestorm.Firestorms can also occur in cities, usually as a deliberate effect of targetedexplosivessuchasoccurredasaresultoftheaerialfirebombingsofHamburg,Dresden,andtheatomicbombingofHiroshima.

(Wikipedia)

TheHiroshimafirestormprobablycausedmoredamagethantheblastitself.Thegeneral effect of a firestorm (for example, inDresden) has been explained asfollows:

Consider the use of precision saturation (incendiary) bombing inDresden. At10:09 AM, the first bombs were dropped unleashing a massive firestorm.Giganticmasses of airwere then sucked in by the expanding inferno creatingsomething similar to a tornado. People caught in this wind were mercilesslytossedintotheflame,whilethoseseekingprotectionundergroundsuffocatedasthefiregaspedformoreoxygen.Theleastfortunatewerethosewhodiedfromablastofwhiteheatwhichhastemperaturessohighitliterallymeltshumanskin.

(EricRoberts)

NovelistKurtVonnegutJr.,whowaspresentinDresdenatthetime,commented:

Youguys burnt the place down, turned it into a single columnof flame.Morepeoplediedthereinthefirestorm,inthatonebigflame,thandiedinHiroshimaandNagasakicombined.

Anotheranalystcomments:

How and why, for more than half a century, did the U.S. government fail topredictnuclearfiredamageasitdrewupplanstofightstrategicnuclearwar?

U.S. bombing inWorldWar II causedmassive fire damage toHiroshima andNagasaki, but later war plans took account only of damage from blast; theycompletely ignored damage fromatomic firestorms.Recently a small group ofresearchershasshownthatformodernnuclearweaponsthedestructivenessandlethality of nuclear mass fire often--and predictably--greatly exceeds that ofnuclearblast.

(WholeWorldonFire:Organizations,Knowledge,andNuclearWeaponsDevastation(CornellStudiesinSecurityAffairs))

They ask a good question. Why minimize nuclear-ignited firestorms? Theproblem is that firestorms can arise from causes other than nuclear, and haveeffectsthatarealltoosimilartosupposednuclearoutcomes.Itseemsthebrassatthetimewereanxiousthatnobodystart tolineupandtoocloselycomparethe‘atomic’outcomesagainstthoseofconventionalfirebombingraids.

BeginningwithanincendiaryraidonTokyoon9March1945whichJapaneserecordsshowedkilled83,793andburnedout267,000buildings(25%ofTokyo’sbuildings), sixty-four Japanese citieswere destroyed by non-nuclear air raids.Thedetailedandobjectiveanalysisof theseincendiaryairraidswasclassified“Restricted” in April 1947 by the U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey in itsunpublishedlimiteddistributiontypesetandprintedreportNumber90,EffectsofIncendiaryBombAttacksonJapan;Part3(pages65-118)documentstheeffectsofthe9March1945Tokyoincendiaryraid,withphotosonpages104-109verysimilar to the damage in Hiroshima and Nagasaki (combustible light framebuildingsburnedoutwiththeirsteeldistortedbythefires,andpilesofcharredbodies in streets). By omitting to publish this, an objective comparison ofnuclearwithconventionalattackswasprevented.

(‘TheeffectsoftheatomicbombonHiroshima,Japan’-U.S.StrategicBombingSurveyreport)

Infact,thedamagepatternsofthesupposedatomicattackswerenearlyidentical

topreviouslyobservedfirestormeffects.

AlthoughfashionablebooksonHiroshimatendtoprintpicturesofthe“blasted”twisted metal beams of the Odamasa Store (former Taiyo Theatre), USSBSbuilding52at2,800feet fromgroundzero,page322explainsit isaneffectoffire: “Severe distortion caused by burning of combustible construction andcontents.” Furthermore, similar twisting of metal frames in wooden buildingsoccurredintheTokyoincendiaryattack,butthosephotosremainedRestricted.Itis not a special “nuclear” effect, nor are the burned bodies in the streets ofTokyophotographedafter themainnon-nuclearattack,despiteall thepolemicandinaccurateclaimsattackingcivildefense.

(U.S.StrategicBombingSurvey)

Anywaylet’sgetbacktonatureforamoment,let’stalktrees.

DamagedtreesatNagasaki2,700feetsouthwestofgroundzero.

Thispictureisdescribedasfollowsbyconventionalhistories:

FatMan snapped trees at Nagasaki; the less powerful Hiroshima bomb onlyknockedthemdown.

(‘TheMakingoftheAtomicBomb’RichardRhodes)

TherearespindlylookingtreeremnantstotherightsideofthatNagasakipicturewhichappearnotonlyunsnapped,butstillupright.What,otherthanamassiveatomic blast of 20 kilotons (Fat Man), could have ‘snapped’ (or maybe weshouldsay‘splintered’)thosetrees?Afirestorm,that’swhat.

Exploding trees occur when stresses in a tree trunk increase leading to anexplosion. Exploding trees occur during forest fires and are a risk tosmokejumpers. In Australia, the native eucalyptus trees are known to explodeduring bush fires due to the high flammability of vaporized eucalyptus oilproducedbythetreenaturally.

(Wikipedia)

The Nagasaki trees photo looks a lot like the usual jumbled mix of upright,damaged,toppled,andsnappedwoodthatyouseeintheaftermathofanymajorforestfire.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smokejumper

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eucalyptus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eucalyptus#Fire

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfire

Aftermathofanordinaryforestfireshowingajumbledmixofupright,splintered,snapped,andtoppledtrees.

Jumbledaftermathofthe1910BigBlowupforestfireinIdaho.

That does not completely rule out a nuclear blast. After all, by conventionalhypothesis,nucleardetonationsthemselvesactuallyproducefirestormsatsomepoint (presumably even when not helped along by residential cooking andkitchen fires, aswell as electrical shorts).But it shows that nuclear explosionneed not be fixed on as the only possible cause of that kind of damage.Withthosephotosasreference,let’slookatblown-upHiroshima.

Hiroshimaneargroundzero:alotofverticalstuff...

Therewe see, close togroundzero, abunchofutilitypoles in the foregroundand tree remnants in the background.Notmuch of this skinny stuff has been‘knockeddown’.Would5morekilotonshavedonethejob?Maybenot,becauseyou sometimeshear thatvertical standingobjects,whenperfectly located ‘justso’withrespecttotheblast,haveremarkablesuperpowers:

Because the shock-front came down from almost directly overhead, telephonepolesandtrees…wereabletoresistandwerelargelybypassedbytheforcesofcompression.Treesandpolesandup-thrusting steel beamsbehavedmuch likethenosesandfinsofrocketbombscuttingthroughsupersonicair.

(‘TheLastTrainfromHiroshima’CharlesPellegrino)

It’samazingthatsomanyscrawny,bentandtwistednaturalobjects,locatedallovertheblastarea,aswellasmanydozensofutilitypoles,couldallhavebeensituated in the mathematically perfect angular centering with reference to the

bottom of the blast front, such that this theoretically well-motivated ‘verticalresistance’ effect applied so extensively. But anything is possible. Maybe theexact zone pictured above matched perfectly with the overhead shock-front.Thus,maybeit’sbetternottoconsidertreesandpolesstanding‘tooclose’toairzero,asitseemsthatmaybethesafestplaceforthem.Theproblemisthataswemove away from ground zero, we still find lots of standing trees and otherverticalobjects:

Hiroshimadamage.

Again we see the familiar mixture of upright, leaning, and toppled trees andpoles.

Plentybadfiredamage,yetuprighttreesarenumerousalongtheleftsideofthecentralroad.

So it seems that uprights are protected by the contradictory conditions of (i)beingdirectlyunder‘airzero’andalso,paradoxically,bybeing(ii)fartheraway- yet in zones fromwhichmost buildingswere supposedly blasted down.Buttheremust have been some kind of blast – if a real nuke was dropped. Let’stighten theboltson theblast thing.At the ‘airzero’detonationaltitudeof600meters,therewouldbeaninnerblastcontourof20psi,andanoutercontourof5psieffects.TheseareshownasconcentriccirclesontheHiroshimaeffectsmap.

Diagram of Little Boy 15-kiloton air blast contours overlaid on (modern)Hiroshima.The inner circle is the20psi contour; theouter circle is the5psicontour.(seeBibliographyforsourceattributionofthemapandtheoverlay)

Here are descriptionsof blast effectswithin the contours (note thatLittleBoydetonatedat600meters,almostthetheoreticalidealformaximaldestruction).

Airblastradius(20psi):340m(0.36km²)

At20psioverpressure,heavilybuiltconcretebuildingsareseverelydamagedordemolished;fatalitiesapproach100%.

Airblastradius(5psi):1.67km(8.78km²)

At5psioverpressure,mostresidentialbuildingscollapse,injuriesareuniversal,fatalitiesarewidespread.

20psihasamaximumwindspeedofabout502mphand5psihasamaximumwindspeedofabout163mph.TheHiroshimadamagephotosinthissectionareallfromeithertheinner(20psi)contouroratleasttheouter(5psi)contour.Itisn’t necessarily true that psi decreases linearly and smoothly from the 20 psicenterzoneouttothe5psiedge.Buttheremusthavebeenaprettywidebeltof,say, 10 psi, with wind speeds of up to 294 mph. On the Saffir-SimpsonHurricaneWindScale:

Acategory5hurricane is thehighest levelof ‘Major’,definedas157mphorhigher wind speeds: catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage offramedhomeswillbedestroyed,withtotalrooffailureandwallcollapse.Mosttreeswillbesnappedoruprootedandpowerpolesdowned.

(www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php)

Sokeepinmind,asyoureadon, thateventheouteredgeof the5psicontourshould have experienced buffeting at, or exceeding, the highest level ofhurricaneforce.

SeverskyAlexander P. de Seversky (June 7, 1894 – August 24, 1974) was a Russian-American aviation pioneer, inventor, and influential advocate of strategic airpower.Hemade an inspection tour ofHiroshima andNagasaki soon after thewar’send.Hisobservationsandconclusionsareparticularlyvaluableashehadextensivepersonalexperienceinbombingandaerialwarfare,aswellasadeepconceptualandtheoreticalunderstandingofexplosivesandblasteffects.Histripreportwaspublished ina1946magazinearticle,whichwasreprisedatgreaterdepthasachapterinhis1950book‘AirPower:KeytoSurvival’.

Seversky is sometimes charged with bias. It’s sometimes said that he

misleadinglyminimizedatomicweapons’horrifyingpower, thebetter toeitherforestallorassuageAmericanpublicguiltoverdroppingthebombonprostrateJapan.That’saridiculouschargebecausein1946therewaspreciouslittleguilttoworryabout.Thepublicoverwhelminglyapprovedthebomb’suse.

TheAmericanpublicthoroughlyapprovedthebomb’suse.

Norwas theremuch fear to calm.TheUSAwas the solepossessorofnuclearweapons. It’smore likely thatSeversky’s observationswere exactlywhat they

comeacrossas–thecandidlystatedassessmentofarational,soberandhighlyknowledgeable military man (who believed implicitly in the existence of theatombomb,andwhomerelydisputedsomeofthehypeaboutitseffects).ThisreportdidlittletoendearhimtoanAmericanpoliticalregimeeagertoinstillfearinnewpost-waradversaries.

AftervisitingthemajorareasofthePacific,IarrivedinJapan.IbeganthestudytowhichIhadbeenassignedbymakinganaerialtouroftheislandsofHonshuandKyushu,whichencompassthemainportionofindustrialJapan.IflewoverTokyo,Yokohama,Yokosuka,Nagoya,Osaka,Kobe,Akashi,anddozensofothertownsandcitieswhichhadbeen subject to intensiveairattack.Someof thesetownsaresoclosetogetherthattheyseemalmostcontinuousindustrialsites.

All of these areas of annihilation presented approximately the same visualpattern. The smaller towns were totally burned out. Seen from above theprevailing color was pinkish – the effect produced by the piles of ashes andrubblemixedwithrustedmetal.Similarpinkishcarpetswerespreadout in thelarger cities, except that among them stood large and small modern concretebuildings and factory structure, unscathed bridges, and other objects that hadwithstoodtheimpact.Manyofthebuildings,ofcourse,wereguttedbyfire,butthiswasnotapparentfromtheair.

I was keyed up for my first view of an atom-bombed city, prepared for theradicallynewsightssuggestedbytheexcitingdescriptionsIhadreadandheard.Buttomyutterastonishment,Hiroshimafromtheairlookedexactlylikealltheotherburned-outcitiesIhadobserved!

Therewasafamiliarpinkblot,abouttwomilesindiameter.Itwasdottedwithcharred trees and telephone poles. Only one of the city’s twenty bridges wasdown.Hiroshima’sclustersofmodernbuildings in thedowntownsectionstoodupright.Itwasobviousthattheblastcouldnothavebeensopowerfulaswehadbeenledtobelieve.Itwasextensiveblastratherthanintensive.Ihadheardofbuildingsinstantlyconsumedbyunprecedentedheat.YethereIsawthebuildings

structurallyintact,andwhatismore,toppedbyundamagedflagpoles,lightningrods,paintedrailings,airraidprecautionsignsandothercomparativelyfragileobjects.

At theT-bridge, the aiming point for the atomic bomb, I looked for the“baldspot”where everythingpresumably hadbeen vaporized in the twinklingof aneye. It wasn’t there or anywhere else. I could find no traces of unusualphenomena.WhatIdidseewasinsubstanceareplicaofYokohamaorOsaka,ortheTokyo suburbs - the familiar residueof anareaofwoodandbrickhousesrazedbyuncontrollablefire.EverywhereIsawthetrunksofcharredandleaflesstrees,burnedandunburnedchunksofwood.Thefirehadbeenintenseenoughtobendand twist steelgirdersand tomeltglassuntil it ran like lava - justas inotherJapanesecities.

Theconcretebuildingsnearesttothecenterofexplosion,someonlyafewblocksfromtheheartof theatomblast,showednostructuraldamage.Evencornices,canopies and delicate exterior decorations were intact. Window glass wasshattered,ofcourse,butsingle-panel framesheld firm;onlywindowframesoftwoormorepanelswerebentandbuckled.Theblastimpactthereforecouldnothavebeenunusual.

(Reader’sDigest1946AlexanderP.deSeversky)

Thereisnomentionofanykindofblastcraterunder‘airzero’.Itmaybethatthedetonationaltitudewastoogreatforthat(1,900feet).Italsomaybethatinabuilt-up enemycity even a shallowcrater is difficult to fudge, fake, ordigonshortnotice.Anywherewithineitherblastring,you’dexpecttrees–ifnothingelse-tobeprettymuchwipedcleanofftheearth,vaporized,flungaroundliketoothpicksinahurricane,exceptpossiblywhereshieldedbyconcretebuildings.

Quiteanumberofplantsnotonlyremainedupright,butactuallysurvivedinthemostintenseareas,tobloomagainthefollowingyear.

A-bombed trees are trees that survived the atomic bombing of 6August 1945.Some170trees,in55locationswithintheroughly2kmradiusofthehypocenter,areofficiallyregisteredbyHiroshimaMunicipalityasA-bombedtrees.Lovinglycared forover the yearsbyauthorities, botanists, various citizens’groupsandindividuals, they are identified by a name plate and the unique reference:hibakujumoku (survivor tree). These survivors of nuclear tragedy carry asignificantmessage-notjustforthoselivinginorvisitingHiroshima,butforallofhumanity.

(UnitedNationsInstituteforTrainingandResearch)

Maybethisbookembodiestheplants’‘significantmessage’.

What’sGoingOn?If the Trinity test is the most intellectually demanding event confronting thenuclear skeptic, then dealing with the accounts of people on the ground whoactuallysufferedanddiedintheseevents(whatevercausedthem)isthegreatestemotionalchallenge.

Idon’thavespacetogodeeplyintothebodycountgame.Thereareavarietyofestimatesofhowmanydead,wounded, sickened,anda lotofquibblingaboutwhat killed who when. Estimates can differ by many tens of thousandsdependingonyour startingassumptionsandmethodology.Not tomention thateverybodybringssomekindofminimizationormaximizationbiastothetable.Sufficeittosayit’sallplentydamnhorriblenomatterhowyousliceit.Andit’sallplentydamnhorriblenomatterhowitwasdone–byscienceorfire,byland,seaorair.Warishell–nobodyisdisputingthat.

But I have to keep trackingmy technical subject - the FAIL hypothesis. So Iwon’tbe talkingmuchabout, say, the realpopulation figures forHiroshima inearlyAugust1945(pre-attack).Someaccountssay thestartingpopulationwasgreatlyexaggeratedandthatbecauseofevacuationsandlackofshippingactivityintheport,thecityhadlargelyemptiedout.Attheveryleast,initialpopulation

estimates should take into account that after years of urban air attacks, mostcitieshadbeenpartiallyevacuated.

Overall, 8.5 million Japanese civilians were displaced as a result of theAmerican raids, including 120,000 ofHiroshima’s population of 365,000whoevacuatedthecitybeforetheatomicbombattackonitinAugust1945.

(Wikipedia)

Thatestimatecutsagainstthegrainoftheusualfableaboutpre-attackHiroshimaas some kind of idyllic island of peace in the sea of flames that otherwiseengulfed Japanese cities at the time. It’s sometimes said that the residents ofHiroshimalivedalmostasnormalnearlytotheend,withonlyaweirdfeelingofinvulnerability due to having been ‘spared’ up to that point. But accounts insomeJapanese sources tellof a largelyemptiedcity,withworkdetailspullingdownhousesforfirebreaks(‘ClearanceProject’)andothersomewhatspiritlesscivildefenseactivitiespredominating.Whateverthecase,Ican’tgetintoallthat.

There are some very impressive collections of heartbreaking survivortestimonies,beginningwith the1959book ‘Childrenof theA-Bomb’ (Englishlanguage edition) by Dr. Arata Osada. This book contains over sixty terriblefirst-person narratives from children on the ground. Most of them date from1951.SopresumablytherewereobstaclesdelayingDr.Osada’spublication.Thesoul-searing accounts of loss, desolation, and destruction wouldn’t paint theAmericanoccupiersinthekindliestlight.Manyofthesehaveaclosevariationofthefollowinglineinthefirstparagraph:

JustaswesawabrightflashtherewasaloudbangandIalmostfainted.

(SanaeKanoh,5thgradegirl)

These lines fit the profile as given by standard histories. Some of them havesomeinterestingtwiststhough:

Ioftenheardthewords,‘Airraids’and‘Thewar’andIrememberthemclearly.‘Today evacuation, tomorrow evacuation.’ And then every day we wanderedaroundplaceswehadneverseenbeforesearchingforasafeplacetolive.Thosewhodidn’thaveanyacquaintancesinthecountryfinallyreturnedtothecity.WewerelivinginHakushima.…MotherandmythreeoldersistersandIseateddayafterdayatdiggingasheltertowhichwewouldentrustthelivesofthefiveofus.InJuly theairraidsbecamemorefrequentandby themiddleof themonththeycameasthoughbyschedule.Athalf-pasteightintheeveningtheairraidsbegan, accompanied by the rasping sound from the radio. Each one with hisparticular belongings in hand jumped down into the shelter… Every time,prayinginourheartsthatwewouldallcontinuetobesafe,wewouldwait forthedawn.Whenmorningcomesandtheall-clearsounds,weallcrowdoutoftheshelter.

(MasatakaAsaeda,9thgradeboy)

This is bad enough, but it does not seem entirely compatible with the usual‘reservedcity’narrative.Maybe thisboy’saccountwasn’t editedquiteheavilyenoughleavingitoutofalignmentwiththebook’soverallorientation.

The Atomic Bomb Survivors Relief Law defines hibakusha as people who fallinto one or more of the following categories: within a few kilometers of thehypocentersof thebombs;within2kmof thehypocenterswithin twoweeksofthebombings;exposedtoradiationfromfallout;ornotyetbornbutcarriedbypregnant women in any of these categories. The Japanese government hasrecognizedabout650,000peopleashibakusha.AsofMarch31,2016,174,080arestillalive,mostlyinJapan.ThegovernmentofJapanrecognizesabout1%oftheseashavingillnessescausedbyradiation.

(Wikipedia)

Many of the book’s children fall under the second provision of thehibakushaspecification: ‘within 2 km of the hypocenters within two weeks of the

bombings’.That’sbecausemanyof the respondentswerenot in thecityat thetimeoftheattack,astheyhadbeenevacuated.Butmostofthemhadhomesandrelatives in thecity.Beyond thispioneeringbook,decades later there isnowaweb-based archive of over 3,000 very similar accounts byhibakusha (被爆者atomicbombvictims).

Whatcanbeconcluded?Inaway,it’ssimple:either(i)nukesworkasadvertisedandLittleBoywipedoutHiroshimainaninstant,or(ii)theattackwasanuclearpsy-oppaintedover the canvasof a real incendiaryandhighexplosiveattack.One or the other is the truth. If the former, it is interesting that after the firstparagraph of these reports, the bulk of the material is always perfectlycompatiblewiththehorrorsofWWIIincendiaryandhighexplosiveairraids,asexperiencedalloverEuropeandJapanuptothattime.

On13February 1945,VictorGreggwas a 25-year-oldBritish riflemanbeingheldbytheGermansinthebeautifulcityofDresden.Atabout10.30pm,theair-raidsirensstartedwailing,andbecausethishappenedeverynightnonoticewastaken.Butafterashortperiodofsilence,awaveofpathfindersstartedtodroptargetflares.Wesawthem…fillingtheskywithblindinglight,drippingburningphosphoruson to the streetsandhouses.The flareswere still fallingwhen theinitialstreamflewover,droppingthousandsofincendiariesalongwiththefirstbombs.…and the sky changed fromabrightwhite toadull red... about fourincendiariesburstthroughourglassroof…shreddingthelucklessmenbeneath.The phosphorus clung to the bodies of the injured, turning them into humantorches,...andtheirscreamingwasaddedtotheothercries....

Suddenly,a“blockbuster”droppedoutsideourbuilding,blowing in thewholewall.(Thesethin-walled,massivemissilescoulddemolishwholeblockswithoneexplosion,hencethename.)Iwasthrownnearly50ftandcoveredinbrickworkandrubble…thesmokeand fumes from thebuilding’sburningshellwerenowbeing swept away by a gradually rising wind…. Wherever I turned, I wasconfrontedwithflames,smokeanddust–andallthetimeblocksofdebrisfallingfromthesky…Survivorswereclawingtheirwaythroughmoundsofrubblethat

anhourbeforehadbeentheirhomes.Westumbledalongtheremainsofawideavenue,flankedbyfiresandmountainsofred-hotwreckage.(Iwassavedbymywoodensoles,whichweresothickthatIcouldwalkovertheglowingcinders.).... The new bombs were so big that you could see them in the sky. Even theincendiaries were different – not metre-long sticks, but four-ton objects thatexploded on the ground, incinerating anythingwithin a radius of 200ft – andrainingdownwiththesecamemoreblockbusters,10-tonnersthistime.

Everythingwasinflames,eventheroads,whichwereburningriversofbubblingandhissingtar.Hugefragmentsofmaterialflewthroughtheair,suckedintothevortex.Wecouldseepeoplebeingtornfromwhatevertheywerehangingontoanddrawnintotheever-deepeningredglowlessthan200yardsaway.Asmallgroup tried to reach us by crossing what had once been a road, only to getthemselvesstuckinabubblingmassofmoltentar.Onebyone,theysanktotheground through sheer exhaustionand thendied inapyreof smokeand flame.People of all shapes, sizes and ages were slowly sucked into the vortex, thensuddenly whisked into the pillars of smoke and fire, their hair and clothingalight. ..above the wind’s howl and the inferno’s roar came the interminable,agonised screams of the victims being roasted alive. ... It was a sea of flamerisingintoaskyofsmoke...Whentheraidended,wecontinuedwiththecellars,prising themopen .. Inside,we found the victims’bodies, usually shrivelled tohalf their normal size orworse. (Children under the age of three or four hadsimplymelted.)

Someof the corpseswere sobrittle that they crumbled into cloudsof ashanddriedflesh.Wesetofftoasmallsquare,wherewhathadbeengrasswasnowabed of ash 4in thick, and the first three shelters we uncovered were empty.Trudgingthroughstreetswheresheetsofflamewerestillshootingup100ft,wecametothedoorofacommunalshelter,whichtookallafternoontopriseopen... a terrible smell hit us – and slowly the horror inside became visible. Therewere no real, complete bodies, only bones and scorched articles of clothingmattedtogetheronthefloorandstucktogetherbyasortofjelly.Therewasno

fleshvisible, justaglutinousmassof solidified fatandbones, inches thick,onthefloor.

(‘Dresden,aSurvivor’sStory’VictorGregg)

Thatkindof thing isprettymuchwhatyouread in‘Childrenof theA-Bomb’,followingtheinitial‘standardized’paragraphofeachreport.

If,ontheotherhand,theFAILhypothesisistrue,thenthefirstparagraphofeachaccount in ‘Children of the A-Bomb’ has been consciously or unconsciouslyeditedtobringitintolinewithatomicgospel.AftertheOccupationended,theremayhavebeenlesspressuretokeeptheUSAmilitarylookinggood,andmoreemphasisonbuildinganinternationalimageforJapanofstrivingforpeaceandhuman harmony etc. The unique suffering described in the ‘A-Bomb’ book –whatever caused it - certainly worked towards that end, because most of thereportsconcludewithasomewhatformulaicpleaforpeaceandrenunciationofweaponsandwarforever.Makeitso!

OneofthemostinterestingstoriesofadultsurvivalisthesagaofKenjiHirata,whoby ill or good luck lived to tell aboutboth the atomic attacks ofAugust,1945.AfterlosinghiswifeintheHiroshimabombing,hecaughtatrainovertoNagasaki and managed to live through the second bombing there. Hirata’samazing experience is illuminating because it plumbs the depths and tests theboundaries of virtually every dimension of this historically complex event –time,space,physics,logistics,andrawhumanemotion.

Hirata’s storyhasbeenmovingly renderedby authorCharlesPellegrino inhisbook‘TheLastTrainfromHiroshima’.Inanutshell,HiratawasworkingintheHiroshimaareathatmorningataplantfourkilometersdistantfromgroundzero.Hesurvivedtheblast,thoughitwasaveryclosecall.However,Setsuko,hisnewbride,wasunfortunately at their homedowntown, almost directly beneath ‘airzero’- thedetonationpoint.Shewasvaporizedandtheirhousewasdestroyed.After somewhat recoveringhimself thatmorning,Hiratabravelyventured into

thefirestorm,headingtohishousetofindhiswife.Whenhearrivedatthesite,no trace of her could be found. A few neighbors who had survived by luckyaccidentsofpositioningexplainedwhathadhappenedthere,soclosetogroundzero.Realizing that thesituationwashopeless,Hirataresolved togatherafewfragmentsofmaterialrepresentinghiswife’sremainsandtoreturnwiththemtothecouple’soriginalhometown–Nagasaki.HetookatrainfromHiroshimaandarrived inNagasaki in timetoexperienceandsurvive thesecondbombing.Helaterremarriedandlivedquietlyformanyyears,avoidingpublicityandkeepinghisalmostuniqueexperienceuntolduntilPellegrinobrought it to theworld inthelastyearsofHirata’slife.

ItbeganforHiratathatmorningathisworkplace:

Kenshi had been working as an accountant at theMitsubishiWeapons Plant,slightlymore than four kilometers [2.5miles] away.A youngwoman nearbyhadcrepttoawindowandpeekedoutside.Whatevershesawinthedirectionofthecity,Kenshiwouldneverknow.Shestoodup,utteredsomethinggutturalandincomprehensible,andthentheblastwave—laggingfarbehindthebomb’slightwaves—caughtupwithher.Bythetimethewindowpanestraveledahalf-meter,theyhadseparatedcompletelyfromtheirprotectivecross-hatchednetofair-raidtape, emerging as thousands of tiny shards. Like the individual pellets of ashotgunblast,eachshardhadbeenaccelerated tomore thanhalf thespeedofsound.Thegirlat thewindow tookat leastaquarter-kilogramofglass inherfaceandherchestbeforethewindjettedhertowardthefarwall.Kenshididnotseewheresheeventually landed.Simultaneouswith thewindowblast, theveryfloorof thebuildinghadcomeoff its foundationandbuckedhimmore thanahalf-meterintotheair.

(‘SurvivingtheLastTrainFromHiroshima:ThePoignantCaseofaDoubleHibakusha’CharlesPellegrino)

TheexactlocationoftheMitsubishiplantrelativetoHiroshimacitytopographyisn’t given, but note the extreme power of these terrifying effects at four

kilometers distance: “blast wave”, “windowpanes traveled a half meter”,“shotgunblast”,“halfthespeedofsound”,“windjettedhertowardthefarwall”,“floor [came]off its foundation”,“buckedhimmore thanahalf-meter into theair”.Itwasanalmostunsurvivableimpact.Thespeedofsoundis767mph.Halfthat is383mph.10psi impact isequivalent to294mphwinds.Theblastherewas hitting with well over 10 psi pressures, nearly twice the threshold of aCategory 5 hurricane, which begins at 157 mph. Fortunately Hirata camethroughitallright,havingduckeddownbehindcoveratthelastmoment.

2.3miles(3.7kilometers)fromhypocenterIsaoKita.Ageatimpact:33yearsold

KITA:Well,at that time, Ihappened tobereceiving the transmissionover thewireless.IwasinthereceivingroomandIwasfacingnorthward.Inoticedtheflashinglight.Itwasnotreallyabigflash.Butstillitdrewmyattention.Inafewseconds, the heatwave arrived. After I noticed the flash,white clouds spreadoverthebluesky.Itwasamazing.Itwasasifbluemorning-glorieshadsuddenlybloomedupinthesky.Itwasfunny,Ithought.Thencametheheatwave.Itwasveryveryhot.Eventhoughtherewasawindowglassinfrontofme,Ifeltreallyhot. Itwasas if Iwas lookingdirectly intoakitchenoven. I couldn’tbear theheatforalongtime.ThenIheardthecrackingsound.Idon’tknowwhatmadethat sound,butprobably it came from theairwhich suddenlyexpanded in theroom.

By that time, I realized that the bomb had been dropped. As I had beeninstructed,Ipushedasidethechairandlaywithmyfaceonthefloor.AlsoasIhadbeeninstructedduringthefrequentemergencyexercises,Icoveredmyeyesand earswith hands like this.And I started to count.Youmay feel that Iwasratherheartlessjusttostartcounting.Butforus,whoobservedtheweather,itisadutytorecordtheprocessoftime,ofvariousphenomena.SoIstartedcountingwiththelightflash.WhenIcountedto5seconds,Iheardthegroaningsound.Atthesametime,thewindowglasswasblownoffandthebuildingshookfromthe

bombblast.Sotheblastreachedthatplaceabout5secondsaftertheexplosion.

(HiroshimaPeaceCulturalCenterandNHK)

Kita’s testimony above is one of themost interesting. It almost seems he hadpriorknowledgeofasinglesuperbombanditsfeatures.The‘count’thathetalksabout would not be especially relevant in the case of anything Japan hadexperienceduptothatpoint.Furthermore,hesays“asIhadbeeninstructed…Ilaywithmy faceon the floor.… I coveredmyeyesandearswithmyhands”.The actions taken by Kita are very much like the instructions to the Trinitywitnesses. I have never read that kind of account of a Japanese wartimeemergency drill. Normally they were concerned first and foremost withevacuation:

“DuringWorldWarII,we[ranand]hidinairraidshelterswearingmaskswhenweheardthesirens,”saidReinosukeIshigaki,an89-yearoldresident.

(CNNMarch19,2017)

2.54miles(4.1kilometers)fromhypocenterHiroshiSawachika.Ageatimpact:28yearsold

SAWACHIKA:Iwasinmyoffice.Ihadjustenteredtheroomandsaid“Goodmorning.” tocolleaguesandIwasabout toapproachmydeskwhenoutside itsuddenly turnedbrightred.I feltveryhotonmycheeks.Beingthechiefof theroom, I shouted to the young men and women in the room that they shouldevacuate.As soonas I cried, I feltweightlessas if Iwereanastronaut. Iwasthen unconscious for 20 or 30 seconds. When I came to, I realized thateverybody including myself was lying at one side of the room. Nobody wasstanding.Thedesksandchairshadalsoblownofftooneside.Atthewindows,therewasnowindowglassandthewindowframeshadbeenblownoutaswell.

(HiroshimaPeaceCulturalCenterandNHK)

Nowlet’spickupthetrailwithHirataagain.TwodaysaftertheatomicattackonHiroshima,hetookatraindepartingfromKoiStationheadingforNagasaki.KoiStationislocated2.29kilometersfromtheHiroshimahypocenter–muchcloserthanHirata’sworkplacetogroundzero,abouthalfthedistance.

KoiStationis2.29kilometersfromhypocenter.

Wecan’texpectblasteffectstobestrictlylinearwithdistance,andparticularlynot in a heterogeneous urban landscape. But, while blast effects could varywidelydependingonabuilding’sexactorientation,construction,andinterveningstructures,stillwedofindanextremecontrastbetweenthesupposedeffectsonHirata’sworkplacecompared to thesituationatKoiStation–half thedistancefromthehypocenter:

During the war, today’s Nishihiroshima Station, run by the Japan RailwayCompany,wascalledKoiStation,andHirodenNishihiroshimaStation, runbytheHiroshimaElectricRailway,wascalledNishihiroshimaStationorKoi.Bothstationswereabout2.4kmfromthehypocenter.AccordingtotheRecordoftheHiroshima A-bomb Disaster, Koi Station, part of the National Railway back

then,waslargelydestroyedintheA-bombblast.The20or30staffmembersofthestationcreptoutfromthewreckagetothetraintracks.Becauseoftheblackrainthatfellintheaftermath,damagefromfirewasminimal.Asthebombwasdroppedafterboththeinboundandoutboundtrainshadleftthestationbefore8a.m., therewerefewpassengers in thestationat the time.TheSanyoLinewasrestored by the National Railway on August 8. A streetcar line, theMiyajimaLineoperatedbytheHiroshimaElectricRailway,wasunabletocontinueservicebetween Nishihiroshima and Kusatsu Station on August 6, but the streetcarcontinued running between Kusatsu and Miyajima. The next day, streetcarsbegan running end to end on the Miyajima Line, carrying many survivors.Anotherstreetcar line in thecitycenter,betweenKoiandNishitenma(present-dayTenmacho)resumedoperationsonAugust9.

(ChugokuNewsService)

KoistationA-bombdamage.Trestlebridgeandtracksapparentlyunscathed,andreportedtobefitforuse48hourspost-blast.

Some station staff may possibly have been killed, but there is nomention offatalities.Given that “20or30”personnel arementionedas surviving,wecanassumestaffcasualtieswerenotsignificant.Thatconclusionissupportedbytherapidity with which inter-city service on the Sanyo line was restored. Trainswereapparentlyrunninginandoutbythenextdaybutone.Thatconclusioninturnissupportedbythephotographicevidence,showinglittleapparentdamageto the complex trestle and track structure. This is an amazing outcome, givenwhat happened at twice the distance from ground zero, as we’ve seen in thetestimonials.

BycontrastwiththeHiroshimacase,afterthe1995Kobeearthquake(magnitude6.9)theNewYorkTimesreported:Railroadofficialsestimateitwilltakeatleastthreemonthstorepairtracksandbridges.

AnearthquakeofRichterscale6.0releasesenergyof~15kilotons–whichistheapproximateyieldoftheLittleBoyatomicbombdroppedonHiroshima(~16kt).

(Wikipedia:‘TNTequivalentforseismicenergyyield’)

It’s truethatearthquakesof6.9magnitudearemuchworsethan6.0magnitudequakes.Andpresumably they’remuchworse than“16kt”atombombs(whichare intentionally designed, deployed, and deliberately targeted by enemies todestroythings…hmm).Andanearthquakeaffectsawiderarea.Solet’scutthat90-day (minimum) repair estimatemassively - by a factor of 10.Ninedays isstillsignificantlylongerthantwodays,andwouldhaveblockedHirata’straintoNagasaki.Furthermore,theepicenteroftheKobequakewasonthenorthernendofAwajiIsland-20kilometersawayfromthecityproper.TheKobetracksweremadewithfarsturdierandmoresophisticatedconstructiontechniquesandmuchgreaterrepairresourceswereavailableforthejob,bycomparisonwithwartime‘justnuked’Hiroshima.

Anyway,thetestimoniesofHirata,Sawachika,andKitadoseemfullyconsistentamong themselves. They all give clear evidence for effects (damage and

casualties)withinthe5psiblastcontour.Actually,morelikeeffectswithinthe10 psi contour. But when you put those testimonies up against actual andhypotheticalblastcontourmaps,thingsgetweird.

PSIvalueswithexpectedeffects.

In order to get 5 psi effectsat thedistances indicated in the set of personaltestimoniesabove,youwouldneedabombofabout100kilotons–more thansix times theconventionally reportedLittleBoyyieldof15kilotons.Actually,I’m being generous, because the height of detonation in the nuke map 100kilotonblastoverlayatHiroshimagroundzeroissettomaximizetherangeof5psieffect,not theactual reportedheight.Furthermore, in themapshown,eventhe 5 psi contour extends significantly less than 4 kilometers. These generous

concessionsaresufficienttomorethancoveranyworriesthatthedamageinthetestimonieswaspossibly characteristicof “only”4or3psi.Topush the5psiring out to the location of themost distant testimonywould take an absurdlylargeyield.

For5psieffectsatrangesgreaterthan3kmfromHiroshimagroundzero,youneedabombwith100-kilotonyield–6 timesLittleBoy’s reportedpower.SeeBibliographyforattributionofmapandoverlayeffect.

If there reallywereall these5psieffects that farout, at4kilometersormore(thus indicating a 100 kiloton yield), then what about Koi Station? Recall itslocation - about2kilometers from thehypocenter.Under thisnewestimateofyield,supportedbythetestimonies,KoiStationwouldhavebeensubjectedto10psi(orgreater)effects.Yetthestaffsurvived,thetrackswereok,andservicewasquicklyrestored.

Wehaveachoicehere.Wecan:

1. acceptthetestimoniesofthemomentofblast,but2. discountanyreportoftakingtrainsfromKoiwithintwodays,andalso3. massivelyupgradetheestimateofLittleBoy’spower.

Or,wecan:

1. acceptthetrainservicestory,and2. retaintheLittleBoyyieldestimateof15kilotons–butthen3. discount the survivor testimonies above (and a number of other similar

accounts).

But thewholepackage together isn’t self-consistent, andwhicheveroptionwegowith,wewillberequiredtodiscountatleastaportionofHirata’stestimony.Iam not, by the way, impugning Pellegrino’s integrity here. He’s a respectedscientist and successful author with impressive Hollywood connections. Eventhe most scrupulous analyst can be taken in by unreliable testimony from anapparentlycrediblewitness.Thatcouldhappentoanyofus.

Further confirmation of these estimates of blast strength comes from officialUSAarchives:

Betweenzeropointand themainbuildingof thenovitiateofJesuits fourmilesaway,wasahillwhichservedtolessentheintensityoftheblast.Yetdespitethisprotection, all thewindowswere shattered and part of thewall blown in. Thechapel,whichistheleftwingofthebuilding,isbuiltoftimberwithplasterwalls.Theglassinthefoyerwindowswasshatteredandtheroofwasblownloosebytheforceoftheexplosionoccurringfourmilesaway.

(‘TheAtomStrikes’1945)

Here, at fourmilesdistance,we see blast effects of at least 1.5 psi, possiblygreater(notetheinterveninghill).Thoseeffectsatthatdistancerequirethe100-kilotonbomb,justaswiththeothertestimonies.

MedicalTestimonyProfessor Richard Muller (U.C. Berkeley) has stated that: “The death fromradiationand radioactivity inHiroshimawas reallyquite small.Mostly itwastheblast.”This seems tobeborneoutby interviewstatements fromBrigadier

GeneralCrawfordF. Sams (chief of PublicHealth andWelfare Section of theGeneralHeadquarters,SupremeAlliedPowersfromOctober2,1945untilJune,1951.)Samswasnotanuclearweaponsskeptic.HedidassumeandbelievethatanatomicweaponwasdetonatedoverHiroshima.Allthemorereasontotakehisassessmentof theactualsituationregardingradiationsicknessdeathsseriously.It’s interesting to sense the tension that apparentlyexistedat the timebetweenthosewhowanted toplayupatomichorrors (eitherasadeterrent towarorasmacho posturing) and those who wanted to play them down (to appearhumanitarian).

Nothing could be established in Japan by any agency from the United Stateswithoutourpermission.TheManhattanProjectwasveryinterestedinassessingthedamagedoneby theatomicbomb,andsootheragencieswere.ThePublicHealth Service sent over amission, theNavy sent over people. I had a dozendifferentgroupsofmedicalpeople in,wanting toknowabout theeffectsof theatomicbomb,whichwasundermycontrol.IhadtakenthefirstgroupdownonthesecondofSeptember,no,itwasaboutthethird,–intoHiroshima.Isentdownsixplaneloadsandwentdowntointroducesomeofourmedicalpeople.WhenIwas first in Hiroshima and landed this group, I got on the radio and someprofessorfromColumbiawassayingthat“anybodywhogot intoHiroshimainthenextfiftyyearswoulddieofradiation.”We’dgetthisnonsenseallthetime.

I set up, out there then, a Joint Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission. TheAmericanthingwasauthorizedandfinancedfromtheUnitedStates–theAtomicEnergyCommission–butwegottheMinistryofHealthandWelfaretosetupacommission there and so itwas jointly staffedwith the Japanese.We set up along-termprojectontheeffectsofthisradiation.

Imentioneddeterrentsagainstwar.Therewasaletterbroughtover,inwhichthePresident was looking for a new deterrent against a future war, because airpowerhad failed.You know,“If youhaveanotherwar, air powerwill destroycivilization,”anditfailedbecauseithadn’tevenbroughtGermanytoitsknees.A strategic bomb survey over there showed that military production had

increasedactuallyduringourbombings.So theobjectofLetterof Instruction,was“Youwillplayupthedevastatingeffectoftheatomicbomb.”Iwastheonewhoset thedeadline.AnybodywhohadbeeninHiroshimaanddiedwithinsixmonths,whethertheygotrunoverbyabicycleorwhatnot,wouldbecreditedtotheatomicbomb.Mostofthecasualtiesoccurredfromthermalreadings.

Theatomicbombwentoffandthatcityhadabout250thousandpeopleinit.Inotherwords,youhadahighdensitypopulationexposed.When thebombwentoff, about 2 thousand people out of 250 thousand got killed – by blast, bythermalradiation,orbyintensex-ray,gammaradiation.Then,whathappenedislike an earthquake.Theblast knockeddownhouses, hibachis had turnedoverand started fires.Whenyouhaveanearthquakeoranatomicbomb, you startfires and then people are trapped in the buildings. And again, by endlessinterviews, “Where were you?” “Where was your great uncle?” “Where wasgrandmawhen thisoccurred?”Webuiltup theevidence to showonacookie-cutterbasisthatittookaboutthirty-sixhoursforabouttwo-thirdsofthattowntoburn.

Yousee, itwasn’t“Bing”likethepublicityhere[said]:abombwentoffandacity disappeared. No such thing happened. That was the propaganda fordeterrent. They’re talking about after that, “One bomb and away goesChicago,”youknow?Allyou’vegottodoislookinLifemagazineandwhatnotbackin’45,’46,andsoon.WhatI’mtryingtodoistoshowhowit’slike“EndthewarwithoneB-17.”Well,youhavetokeepyourfeetontheground.Asnearas we could figure then, about twenty-one thousand people died in thirty-sixhoursasaresultofbeingtrappedandburnedandsoon.It’slikethosewhodiedinthe’23earthquake[andsubsequent]fire.Then,asIsay,Isetthesixmonths’deadline foranybodywhohadbeen there,even thoughtheywentawayandsoon,toputadeadlineondeathsfromdelayedradiationeffects.

Oneofusgotapriest there tosayheguessed100thousandpeoplediedwhenthebombwentoff.Well,yousee,itdidn’t.Thereneverwas100thousandpeople[who]died.WhenIcameback to thiscountry, Iwasappalled, fromamilitary

standpoint, to find thatourmajorplanners in theWarDepartmentwereusingtheirownpropaganda,100thousanddeaths,Bing!And[theywere]comparingit– saying itwas the greatest killer in comparing it to the number of deaths inTokyo, which had been literally destroyed by high explosives. Actually, theatomicbombwasadamnpoorkillerincomparisontotheexposedpopulation.

Iusedtotellthembackinthegeneralstaffandincludingthechiefofstaff,“Ifyoucandeterawar, forGod’ssake, let’sdo itandblowup theeffectsallyouwant. But don’t believe your own propaganda if you are applying it to yourmilitaryplanning.”Actually,theatomicbombwasapoorkiller.

FireintheHole!Anywhere you care to look, in the library or on theweb, you’ll find plentifulrenditionsoftheEnolaGay’smission,timelineanddetailsoftheattack.I’mnotgoing to rehashall themilitaryprocedure stuff. I’mnotevengoing toquibbleabout little things, suchas thepost-missionbuildupofbombardierThomasW.Ferebee’s supposedly preternatural skill in dropping Little Boy close to theaiming point, by pulling a switch or cord or something at just the perfectmomenttoearnhisplaceinhistory.

Infact,afteraB-29’sbombardierlockedontoavisuallydeterminedtargetatthestartofabombingrun,andthenmakingafewadjustmentstoinsuretheheadingstayed straight in the faceofcrosswindsandother interference, thebombsightmechanismtookovertheplanepriortothedrop.Bymeansoftheauto-pilot,thebombsight enforced its precision adjustments to the heading as needed, thenautomaticallyreleasedthebombattherightmoment(inrealityoftenwildlyoff).Therewasnospecialbuttonorcordthatneededaheroicorgeniuslittle tugattheMomentofTruth.That’sallmythmaking.ButI’mnotgoingtogetintothatkindofmissiontrivia.I’mmoreinterestedinwhatsupposedlyhappenednext.

Immediately following the bomb’s release, Tibbets executed his signature andmuch-practiced sharp diving turn away from the detonation point. Here’s anaccountoftheimmediatepost-detonationsituationontheEnolaGay:

Thoughalreadyelevenandahalfmilesaway,theEnolaGaywasrockedbytheblast. At first, Tibbets thought he was taking flak. After a second shock wave(reflected from the ground) hit the plane, the crew looked back atHiroshima.“The citywashiddenby that awful cloud…boilingup,mushrooming, terribleandincrediblytall,”Tibbetsrecalled.

(www.learnnc.org/lp/editions/nchist-worldwar/5891)

Nowconsidersometimingdetailsof theshockwaveandthemushroomcloudformationandrise.Here’sthetimingontheshocks:

Martin Harwit’s 1996 book, ‘An Exhibit Denied: Lobbying the History of“EnolaGay,”says,“Theshockwavearrivedanother45secondslater[afterthedetonation],” This was the direct shock wave; a few seconds later a second,groundreflectedshockalsohittheEnolaGay.)

(‘ChasesandEscapes:TheMathematicsofPursuitandEvasion’PaulJ.Nahin)

Forbrevity,I’mgoingtoleaveasidedetailedinterrogationabouttheoccurrenceoftheseshocks.TheEnolaGaydoveonlyabout2,000feet in theescape turn,puttingitatnolowerthan28,000feet,probablyhigher.

At17secondspast9:15amat30,000feet,Col.TibbettsdroppedthebombwhileChuck Sweeney in Great Artiste dropped his instrument packages. TibbettsimmediatelyputEnolaGayintoahard60degreebanktotheright,andSweeneymade the same turn to the left.When they straightenedout to level flight theyhadlost1,700feetofelevation.

(user.xmission.com/~tmathews/b29/155degree/155degreemath.html)

At that altitude, by that time, there should have been no separate shock of‘ground reflection’ because the Mach Effect (merger) would have alreadyoccurred.

Whenan [airburst] occurs it sends out a shockwave like an expanding soapbubble.Iftheexplosionoccursabovethegroundthebubbleexpandsandwhenitreachesthegrounditisreflected-i.e.theshockfrontbouncesoffthegroundtoforma second shockwave travellingbehind the first.This second shockwavetravels faster than the first,ordirect, shockwavesince it is travelling throughair alreadymoving at high speed due to the passage of the direct wave. Thereflectedshockwave tends toovertake thedirectshockwaveandwhenitdoestheycombine to formasinglereinforcedwave.This iscalled theMachEffect,andproducesa skirtaround thebaseof the shockwavebubblewhere the twoshockwaveshavecombined.Thisskirtsweepsoutwardasanexpandingcirclealong the groundwith an amplified effect compared to the single shockwaveproducedbyagroundburst.

(‘NuclearWeaponsFrequentlyAskedQuestions’CareySublette)

But let’s not get sidetrackedby small anomalies.Eyes on the prize!Let’s justcarryonwiththemission.

EnolaGaycircledHiroshimaatotalofthreetimes,beginningat29,200feetandclimbing towards60,000 feet, beforeheading forhome. Itwas368miles fromHiroshimabefore[tailgunner]BobCaronreportedthatthemushroomcloudwasnolongervisible.


Let’s flashback to that ‘circling’ interval.Tibbetscalled forverbaldescriptionsfromthecrewmembers,beginningwiththetailgunner.

Tibbetsaddressedthecrew.“Okay.Thatwasthereflectedshockwave,bouncedbackfromtheground.Therewon’tbeanymore.Itwasn’tflak.Staycalm.Now,let’sgettheserecordingsgoing.Beser,youset?”

“Yes,Colonel.”

“Iwantyoutogoaroundtoeachofthecrewandrecordtheirimpressions.Keepitshort,andkeepitclean.Bob,starttalking.”

“Gee,Colonel.It’sjustspectacular.”

“Justdescribewhatyoucansee.Imagineyou’redoingaradiobroadcast.”

With the Enola Gay beginning to orbit at 29,200 feet, eleven miles fromHiroshima,thetailgunnerproducedavivideyewitnessaccount.

“Acolumnofsmokerisingfast.Ithasafieryredcore.Abubblingmass,purple-gray in color, with that red core. It’s all turbulent. Fires are springing upeverywhere, like flames shooting out of a huge bed of coals. I am starting tocount the fires. One, two, three, four, five, six ... fourteen, fifteen ... it’simpossible. There are toomany to count.Here it comes, themushroom shapethatCaptainParsonsspokeabout....It’slikeamassofbubblingmolasses.Themushroomisspreadingout.It’smaybeamileortwowideandhalfamilehigh.It’snearlylevelwithusandclimbing.It’sveryblack,butthereisapurplishtinttothecloud.Thebaseofthemushroomlookslikeaheavyundercastthatisshotthrough with flames. The city must be below that. The flames and smoke arebillowingout,whirlingoutintothefoothills.AllIcanseenowofthecityisthemaindockandwhatlookslikeanairfield.”

(‘TheBomb:ALife’GerardDeGroot)

Caron’sdescriptionhasanumberofinterestingfeatures:

Pre-scripting:‘themushroomshapethatCaptainParsonspokeabout’Height:‘nearlylevelwithus’at‘halfamilehigh’Color:‘purple-gray’,‘redcore’,‘molasses’,‘veryblack’,‘heavyundercast’Visibility:‘themaindock’

Let’sconsider theseoneat a time.First, the reference toa ‘mushroomshape’.Thiswasapre-insertionbyParsonsatthemissionpre-briefing.

“Noone,”Parsonscontinued,“knowsexactlywhatwillhappenwhenthebombisdroppedfromtheair.Thathasneverbeendonebefore.”Hedrewtheshapeofamushroomon theblackboardandsaid:“Wedoexpectacloud this shape toriseatleast30,000feetandmaybe60,000feet,precededbyaflashoflightmuchbrighterthanthesun’s.”

(‘Inferno:TheFallofJapan1945’RonaldHenkoff)

Youhave towonderwhether that imagewouldhaveemergedspontaneouslyatthismomenttoatrulynaïveobserverwithnobackgroundinatomicweaponry.Itsounds likepre-seedingbasedon theearliestbombfiction.Thosewho’vereaddetailed accounts of the Enola Gay mission will easily recognize the manyparallelsinthis1914sciencefiction:

The sky above the indistinct horizons of this cloud seawas at first starry andthenpalerwitha light thatcrept fromnorth toeastas thedawncameon.TheMilkyWaywas invisible in theblue,and the lesserstarsvanished.The faceoftheadventurerat thesteering-wheel,darklyvisibleeverandagainby theovalgreenishglowofthecompassface,hadsomethingofthatfirmbeautywhichallconcentrated purpose gives, and something of the happiness of an idiot childthathasatlastgotholdofthematches.Hiscompanion,alessimaginativetype,satwithhislegsspreadwideoverthelong,coffin-shapedboxwhichcontainedinitscompartmentsthethreeatomicbombs,thenewbombsthatwouldcontinuetoexplodeindefinitelyandwhichnoonesofarhadeverseeninaction.

Hitherto Carolinum, their essential substance, had been tested only in almostinfinitesimal quantities within steel chambers embedded in lead. Beyond thethoughtof great destruction slumbering in theblack spheresbetweenhis legs,andakeenresolvetofollowoutveryexactlytheinstructionsthathadbeengivenhim, the man’s mind was a blank. His aquiline profile against the starlightexpressed nothing but a profound gloom.. The sky below grew clearer as theCentral European capital was approached… So far they had been singularlyluckyandhadbeenchallengedbynoaeroplanesatall.Thefrontierscoutsthey

musthavepassedinthenight;probablytheseweremostlyundertheclouds;theworld was wide and they had had luck in not coming close to any soaringsentinel.Theirmachinewaspaintedapalegray, that layalmost invisiblyoverthecloudlevelsbelow.Butnowtheeastwasflushingwiththenearascentofthesun,Berlinwasbutascoreofmilesahead,andtheluckoftheFrenchmenheld.Byimperceptibledegreesthecloudsbelowdissolved....Sureofitsaccessibility,he craned his neck over the side of the aeroplane and judged his pace anddistance.Thenveryquicklyhebentforward,bitthestud,andhoistedthebombover the side. ‘Round,’ hewhispered inaudibly.… The bomb flashed blindingscarletinmid-air,andfell,adescendingcolumnofblazeeddyingspirallyinthemidstofawhirlwind.Boththeaeroplanesweretossedlikeshuttlecocks,hurledhighandsidewaysandthesteersman,withgleamingeyesandsetteeth,foughtingreatbankingcurves forabalance.Thegauntmanclung tightwithhandandknees; his nostrils dilated, his teeth biting his lips.Hewas firmly strapped....Whenhecould lookdownagain itwas like lookingdownuponthecraterofasmallvolcano.IntheopengardenbeforetheImperialcastleashudderingstarofevil splendour spurted and poured up smoke and flame towards them like anaccusation.Theyweretoohightodistinguishpeopleclearly,ormarkthebomb’seffectuponthebuildinguntilsuddenlythefacadetotteredandcrumbledbeforetheflareassugardissolvesinwater.

(‘TheWorldSetFree’H.G.Wells1914)

ButIdigress.Most importantly,consider theheightestimateof thedevelopingcloud.Herewefindsomethingextremelyodd.Byhypothesisandeveryaccount,at thisstage theEnolaGaywascirclingatminimum29,000feet.Thecloud issaidtobe‘levelwithus’.Yetatthesametime,thecloudisestimatedtobe‘halfamilehigh’(2,640feet).Allsourcesseemtoagreethatthesemushroomcloudsriseupveryquickly.‘TheEffectsofNuclearWeapons’,afederalguide,informsusthatnuclearmushroomcloudstypicallyreachtheirmaximumheightsinabout10minutes.Basedonestimatesfromothersources,theLittleBoycloudwouldhaverisentoover60,000feetinaboutthattime.

So there is theEnolaGay, post-detonation, post-shockwave (#1), post-shockwave (#2), safely circling and climbing. Then, there was the time taken forreassurance from Captain Tibbets and for his instructions, and now the tailgunneristalking.We’veseenthattheshockwavescouldnothavefinishedmuchearlierthanoneminute,andweshouldallowatleastanothercoupleminutesfortheotheractivitieslistedabove.

Let’s make a conservative simplifying assumption that the hypotheticalmushroom cloud has at that point had three minutes and twenty seconds todevelop.We can’t assume strict linearity for the cloud’s rise over time, but atleast, if it’snon-linear, theearlyphase is themore likely tobehyperlinear.Solet’sbeconservativeagainandcallthosefirstthreeminutesatleastlinear,intheabsenceofanybetterinformation.Sothat’sonethirdofourtenminutes,togetonethirdofour60,000-footfinalheight,thusthecloudwasat20,000feet.Howis that ‘levelwith us’ at 29,000 feet?Most crucially, how is that, at the sametime,‘halfamilehigh’?Somebodyscrewedupthescriptingthere.

As for color, the cloud is described in no uncertain terms as basically dark.Rememberthatthedescriptionwe’reconcernedwithhererealisticallycouldnothavebeenearlier thanafter threefullminutesofdevelopment.HereisaphotosaidtobeoftheLittleBoymushroomcloud.Howdarkisthat?

White(putative)mushroomcloudofHiroshima

It’s interesting thatCaronmentions thedockarea’svisibility,because there’sa

finalfatalgotchaonthisEnolaGayurbanlegend.Onthatmorning,bychanceanunauthorized B-29 had somehow missed the word banning all non-missionflights to or near Hiroshima that morning. This was a reconnaissance planewhose crew included photographer JohnMcGlohon. According to newspaperaccounts, it has now been verified that “the photos [McGlohon] tookminutesaftertheexplosionweretheonlyonesmadelookingstraightdownonHiroshimaasthemushroomcloudwasenvelopingit.”

McGlohon’splane,pilotedbyJackEconomos, left in theearlyhoursofAug.6foralongflyingday,tophotographpotentialtargetsnearHiroshima,Kureandfarther north. As they nearedHiroshima around 8:15 a.m., a gunner reportedovertheintercomseeingaB-29flyingintheoppositedirectionasifheadedforanemergency landingat IwoJima.Often,McGlohonsays,whenbombershadenginetrouble,theywouldaborttheirmissions,droptheirbombloadsandtrytoreach a friendly landing site. Within seconds, McGlohon said, “There was abrilliant flash below our plane. The light was as if someone had fired a bigflashbulbdirectlyinyoureyes.”“Weassumedthebomberhadsalvoedhisbombloadandmanagedtogetagoodhitonanammunitiondumporanoiltank,sothedaywouldn’tbeatotalloss,”McGlohonsaid.Heturnedonhiscamerastoshootthedamageandthecloudthatwasrisingfrombelowsothat later,“Thecrewcouldgetcreditforthegoodjobtheyhaddone.”

(www.mcclatchydc.com)

There’s a big tortuous saga of how his film later got mixed up and lost orsuppressedfordecades,andhowhisaccountofbeingonthescenewasdoubtedanddeniedbuteventuallyverified.Forourpurposes,whatmattersisthephotohesupposedlyshotfromdirectlyabovethecity.

ThisissaidtobetheonlyknownphotolookingstraightdownonHiroshimaimmediatelyaftertheatomicbombwasdropped.

ThisphotowasshotafterMcGlohon’splanehadflowntowardandoverthecity,passingtheEnolaGayonitswayout.McGlohonwantedtotakesomephotosas

soon as he realized something was blowing up under their plane. Here’s anaccountofhisplane’stimingandlocation:

At themoment thebombexploded,McGlohonandhis crewwereapproachingHiroshimaatabout27,000 feetand flyingat least275mph.Theywouldhavepassedoverthecitybeforethemushroomcloudhadtimetoreachtheiraltitude.

(‘ScarsofWar’MarilynSwinson)

IfMcGlohon was able to be directly over Hiroshima after the detonation yetbeforethemushroomcloudhaddevelopedsufficientlytoalarmorblockhim(orevenbenoticedbyhimas such), his planewouldhavebeendestroyedby theshockwave(s).Recallfromthepriordiscussionthatthemushroomcloudboiledup to20,000 feetwithinoneminuteofdetonation.Remember thatEnolaGayfelttwobigshocks,describedbyTibbets:“Wewereelevenandahalfmilesslantrangefromtheatomicexplosion,butthewholeplanecrackedandcrinkledfromtheblast.”Thatwasat45secondsafterdetonation,aswe’veseen.NowconsiderMcGlohon’splane: it isdescribedasbeing ‘directlyabove’amushroomcloudthathadtohavebeenalready20,000feethighormore,aswe’vealreadyseen.

ButsinceMcGlohoncertainlywasn’tdirectlyontopoftheEnolaGaywhenthebombwasdropped,ithadtobethathisplaneflewstraightintoahugelyrising,roilingmushroomcloud,ofatleast20,000feetheight,withoutnoticinganythingspecial, and focusing only on the ‘good job’ somebody had done far below,hitting‘anammodumporanoiltank’.

SinceMcGlohon’splanewasneitherswattedfromtheskybytheshockwaves(ifhewasabovethedroppointbetweendetonationandmushroomcloudrising)andgiventhathedoesn’tseemtohaveflownstraightintooraroundanamazing20,000+footmushroomcloud,clearlyhisstraight-downoverheadphoto isnotof the mushroom cloud – at any stage. Nor could it have been the matureHiroshimafirestorm,whichjustafterthestrikehadbarelybeguntodevelop.

It’sobvious thatherewehaveanoverheadphotoofa firestorm inHiroshima,withoutanynukeshockwavesormushroomcloudinvolved.Howdoyougetafirestorm without a nuclear explosion? You do it with a garden-varietyincendiaries-plus-high-explosivessaturationraid.McGlohon’spicture,whichheseemstohaveshotingoodfaith,showsHiroshimaintheearly(orearly-to-mid)phaseofan‘ordinary’firestormcausedbyanormal-for-the-timesfirebombing.Thekindofraidthe20thAirGroupperformed,withfactory-likeprecisionandsaturation coverage,all throughout 1945.Notice how the smoke contour endsjustbefore thewater line.There’sno reason for anuclear cloud to respect thewater line (do keep in mind that this was supposedly shot well before anynuclear-triggeredfirestormcouldhavekickedin).

But,windfactorsapart,firestormsfromincendiarybombingdorespectthewaterline, at least for a while. Compare this photo of a slightly earlier stage of astandardfire-bombing.Whatweseebelowisasimilarwhiteincendiarysmokecoverbeginningtofillthespaceuptothewaterlineanddocks.

IncendiarybombingofKobein-progress.

Tarumizafirebombingandstartofsmokecover.

ThereasonfortheMcGlohon’sunauthorizedpresenceintheareaisexplainedasfollows:

Beforethebombing,anorderwasissuedtothe20thAirForcebarringitsplanesfromflyingwithin50milesofHiroshimathemorningofAugust6.McGlohon’sunitwasnotonthedistributionlist[forthisorder].

(‘ScarsofWar’MarilynSwinson)

It’snaturaltosupposethatanordertokeepextraneousunitsoutwasmotivatedbyconcernsaboutinterferencewiththesingularatomicmission,forthesafetyofuninvolved planes, and for general high-security.But itmay be that the orderwasnotintendedtokeeptheskiessafe,itwastokeeptherealoperationsecret.Theyneededadecent-sizeformationtodothefire-bombing.It’smorelikelytheorderwastokeeptheskiesclearofanybodywithoutaneedtoknow.

IftherehadbeenafullsequenceofprofessionallyexecutedsurveillancephotosfromNecessary Evil, the mission’s photography plane, none of this sleuthingwouldbenecessary.Everythingwouldbeclearedupinstantly.Butnocomplete,clear, time-stamped and geo-located output from Necessary Evil’s assignedmissionseemstobeavailable.

MatsushigePhotographsForon-siteground-leveldocumentation,wehavethesmallphotoarchivecreatedbyMatsushigeYoshito(松重美人)ontheday.

On August 6, 1945, Yoshito Matsushige was 32 years old, living at home inMidori-cho, Hiroshima. His home was 1.7 miles away from ground zero, justoutside of the 1.5mile radius of the total destruction created by atomic blasteffects. Miraculously, Matsushige was not seriously injured by the explosion.With one cameraand two rolls of filmwith 24possible exposures, he tried tophotographtheimmediateaftereffectsofthebombingofHiroshima.


Hedescribedhisactionsthatdayasfollows:

Ihad finishedbreakfastandwasgettingready togo to thenewspaperwhen ithappened.Therewasaflashfromtheindoorwiresasiflighteninghadstruck.Ididn’thearanysound,howshallIsay,theworldaroundmeturnedbrightwhite.AndIwasmomentarilyblindedasifamagnesiumlighthadlitupinfrontofmyeyes.Immediatelyafterthat, theblastcame.Iwasbarefromthewaistup,andtheblastwassointense,itfeltlikehundredsofneedleswerestablingmeallatonce.Theblastgrewlargeholesinthewallsofthefirstandsecondfloor.Icouldbarelyseetheroombecauseofallthedirt.Ipulledmycameraandtheclothesissuedbythemilitaryheadquartersoutfromunderthemoundofthedebris,andI got dressed. I thought I would go to either the newspaper or to theheadquarters.Thatwasabout40minutesaftertheblast.

(MatsushigeYoshito)

Fromthisaccount,giventheambiguityinhisstatementthathe’dgoto“eitherthe newspaper or to the headquarters”, it seems most probable that he wassayinghesetoutfromhishouseat40minutesaftertheblast,ratherthanthathearrivedateitherof thosedestinationsat40minutesafter theblast. In fact, it’snotclear from the restofhisaccount thatheeverarrivedateither locationonthat day, which further reinforces the departure time interpretation that I’madopting.

Clearlyhewasnotinapositiontophotographtheimmediateblast.Hetookfivefamousstreet-levelphotos.Theyarecloseupormid-distanceshotsofsurvivors,rescuers and damage.His camerawas aKodakRetina, a popular smallwalk-aboutcameraofthe1930’s,notequippedwithtelephotolensorzoomcapability.(ItappearsthattheKilfitt3682mm/2.8Zoomarintroducedin1959wasthefirstvarifocal lens in regular production for still 35mm photography.) I mentionMatsushige Yoshito because he is often wrongly credited with a shot morerelevanttomyanalysis.

TheearlyHiroshimamushroomcloud?Oftenmis-attributedtoMatsushigeYoshito.

This photograph, purporting to show the early Little Boy mushroom cloud,should be credited to a different photographer with the same surname:MatsushigeTatuso (松重三男). It is correctly attributed in the2-panelversionreproducedhere.Allthatseemstobeknownabouthimisthefollowing:

MitsuoMatsushigewasathomeinFuruichi-cho,intheoutskirtsofHiroshima,whentheatomicbombexploded.Whenhesawtheflash,hedashedoutsideandwitnessedtheorangefireballriserapidly in theskyleavingatrail.Threedayslater,hewenttohisworkplaceinFukuro-machi,500metersfromthehypocenter,andfoundtheentireareaaburntplain.

The two-panel illustration shows a single photograph. On the left side, thecontrastandsharpnessareretainedfromtheoriginalnegative.Ontherightside,the contrast and sharpness have beenmuted in order to eliminate the flames,sparks,andembers rising frombelow.OnJapanesewebsites, the twoversionsaresometimescontrastedasevidenceofcensorshipofaspectsof theevent.Asfor timing, this is variously said to be “immediately following” or “2minutesafter”thedetonation.

Forourpurposes,weonlyneed tonote theattributeddistanceof7kilometers(4.3miles).Youneedn’tbeawhackoconspiracytheoristtofindsomethingoddabout this picture as described, if it’s meant to show the mushroom cloudformation. This photographer was able to rush outside, with his camera, andcapture a very close-up shot,without a zoom lens, of a fireball rising 4milesaway,withthefirehavingapparentlyalreadyreachedhisownneighborhood.Ifthis is thestartof themushroomcloud, the top isway low.Evenat2minutespost-detonation,byourpreviousanalysis,thetopshouldhavebeenmuchhigher.If the shotwas taken at that early time, from as close as it appears (no zoomlens),thentheblast(notjustgroundflames)shouldhaveaffectedthecameramanand surroundings. In short, this photographerwasnot 4miles from thebillowhe’sphotographing, and if all these things (cameraposition, house,mushroombillow)areasclosetogetherastheyappear,everythingshouldhavebeenblowntospit.

Itlikelythatthisisactuallyaphotoofacloseincendiarystrike,agroundlevelviewofsomethinglikeoneoftheincendiaryhitsonYokohama.

IncendiaryraidsmokebillowsatYokohama.

NoBaldSpotApartfromanyothernitpickingandanomalychasing,thekeydealbreakerfortheorthodoxstoryofatomicHiroshimaisthefactthattherewasno‘baldspot’.Thedamagewasuniformtotheperimeters,exactlyasinatypicalfirebombingraid.

Tokyo. Typical firestorm damage, extensive burnout of light and woodenconstruction,retentionofstrongerorconcretestructures,nocentral‘baldspot’.Notealsothemanyintactbridges–similartoHiroshima,whereonlyoneofthecity’s 20 bridges was disabled or destroyed (apparently collapsed by mobsfleeingfires).

WhatdoImeanbyabaldspot?Whenmassivefirepoweriscenteredonamaincentralarea,Iwanttoseeaserious,concentricglassparkinglot(incaseofnuke,glowinggreen).Iwant toseeafocusareameltedtosludgeandslagatgroundzero(immediatelybelowairzero).

Cologne, Germany showing ‘bald at center of normal fire and blast damage.Overallextentofdestructionapproximatelyequaltothemapinupperleft,aerialphoto has ‘Mulheim’ hand-labeled with arrow on outer ring, and ‘Cologne’writtenleft-center.

Some interesting ‘before and after’ aerial collage photos of Hiroshima were

madeinmid-1945.

ToppanelisApril,bottompanelismid-August.

There are problems all over this contrastive display.The basic function of theassemblyistodrawyoureyestothecenterwhited-outareaandhityouinthegutwith this kind of vibe: “Look on my works, ye Mighty, and Weep!” Totalvaporization,devastation,glassparkinglot.

Butthesepicturescouldeasilybeflippedandmakethesamepoint.Byfiddlingwith the lighting, contrast, shadows, and focus knobs in Photoshop, I couldinterchangethesephotoswiththesameimpact.Youalsohavetowonderwhyarethesephotosassembledbystrips?ThoughthereiscloudcoverinJapan,thePOVisnotthathighofftheground.TheUSwasbombingallcitiesatwill.GeneralCutisLeMay,whoranthewholeshow, latersaidaboutJapan:“throughout thewar, not one of our attacks was ever turned back by enemy action.” That iswhat’scalled‘airsuperiority’.Youwouldn’t thinkitsodifficult togetasinglebird’seyeview.

Butusingassembledstripsmakesiteasiertoplaywiththeexposurestogettheimpact you want in different local zones. A few things were overlookedhowever.Thebasicthemehereis:‘white=bad’i.e.anywherethat’swhitedoutissupposedtopunchour‘glassparkinglot’emotionalbuttons.Examinethenthelowerleftquadrantofthetwopictures.That’sthedockandwharvesareaoftheport. In that zone, theafterpicture looksmoredevastated than thebefore shot(usingthewhite-outcriteriathatwe’reintendedtoapplytothehypocenternearthe top-center area).Allgoodyou say?Butwait: neither theblastnor the fireeverreachednearlythatfar.

Blastandfireextentmap.

Conversely,lookatthelowerrightquadrant.Here,ifthedegreeofwhite-outisour criteria, we have the opposite problem: in that area, the before picture ismore‘devastated’thantheafter.It’sobviousthattheentiredisplayisacarelesslytrickeduppieceof‘drive-byevidence’,createdbyfiddlingwithstripexposures,without much attention to logic or the fire/blast map. Hiroshima was indeedwiped out. No argument there.Both pictures show extensive destruction (andclearance) all over the area It makes sense given the plentitude of militarytargets. If thewhiteout inparts of bothphotosmeans anything all, itmay just

indicateamoreadvancedstageofdeliberateclearanceofblacker,oldercharredrubble–whichtakestime.Inanycase,thesecondwastakenatalaterdate,butthey’ve been synchronized in tandem; both of them tweaked and tuned to thestoryline.Backin1945, itprobablytookafull-daydarkroomshift to trickthisout,whilewithcurrentdigitaltoolsitwouldtakeabout20minutes.

TrickeryistheWayofWarUn-DamagedorPre-Damaged?

Nowweneedtobackupandlookatwhatprobablyreallyhappened.Todothat,weneed to firstconsider thewhole targetselection thing. It’swellknownthatcertainareaswereofflimitstoeverybody.BothLeMay’sfirebombingraidsandthe upcoming possible nuclear attacks were prohibited for Kyoto and theImperialPalaceinTokyo.There’sawholehugehistoryontheKyotothingandSecretary of War Stimson’s top-down imposition of hands-off that ancientculturalcity.I’mnotgoingtogooverallthat.I’lljustacceptforpurposesofthisdiscussionthatKyotowassidelinedfromthestart.Likewise,therewerestrategicandpoliticalissuesindecidingwhethertotargettheImperialPalacethatIwon’tgetinto.

Byearly-to-mid1945,whatdidthatleave?InthedocumentarymovieTheFogofWar,alistof67Japanesecitiesthatwere,onaverage,50%destroyed(usuallya lot more) is scrolled out, with the percentage destruction figure for each.Hiroshima and Nagasaki were excluded from that list (in the documentary’sotherwiseunrelatedstoryline),obviouslyunderstoodasspecialcases.Thosetwowereespeciallyusefulcases–butnotperhapsinthewayusuallythought.

Uptolatespringof1945,theUnitedStatesstrategicbombingandcarrierforceshadalreadyengaged in continuousattacksof relentless ferocity against the67cities – many of which were of far lesser size and military significance thanHiroshima.HereistheattitudeofthefieldcommandersuptotheendofSpring1945andprobablymuchlater:

[The]JointStaff[reported]inApril1945thatourcourseshouldbe:

Apply full and unremitting pressure against Japan by strategic bombing andcarrier raids in order to reducewar-making capability and to demoralize thecountryinpreparationforinvasion

(‘NowItCanbeTold’LeslieGroves)

No mention whatsoever of an amazing new super weapon. The fieldcommandershadnorealawarenessoftheprogressoftheatomicbombproject,noconceptionofitspotentialstrategicutilityandnoplanforitsincorporationinrealwar fighting. They focused entirely on their vision of “no stone left atopanother”.GiventhatbyApril1945,theyhadbombedoutover60%ofnumerousrelatively minor strategic sites (the 67 mentioned above), is it likely thatHiroshimahadtrulybeenleftpristine?Itcomesdowntoaquestionofmilitaryvalue:didHiroshimahaveany?

Hiroshima [was] a major port of embarkation for the Japanese Army and aconvoy assembly point for their Navy. The city, in which the local Armyheadquarters,withsometwenty-fivethousandtroops,wassituated,wasmainlyconcentratedonfourislands.Therailwayyards,Armystoragedepotsandportof embarkation lay along the eastern side of the city. A number of heavyindustrialfacilitieswereadjacenttothemainmetropolitanarea.

(LeslieGroves)

Hmm.Keepinmindthatuptoearlysummerof1945,therewasnoatomictargetlist of ‘reserved cities’. That happened later, after secret committees had beenformedinWashingtonD.C.andwide-rangingdiscussionshadbeenheld:

Ataboutthistime,theSpringof1945,anotherjobwasdroppedintoourlapsatthe [Manhattan Engineering District]. The first inkling I had of this addedresponsibilitycameinthecourseofaconversationwithGeneralMarshall.Wehad been discussing the progress of the work, and, having mentioned our

anticipatedreadinessdate,Isuggestedthatthetimewasfastapproachingwhenweshouldbegintomakeplansforthebombingoperationitself,eventhoughwestillhadnoassurancethatthebombwouldbeeffective.Iaskedhimtodesignatesome officer in theOperations PlanningDivision (OPD) of theGeneral StaffwithwhomIcouldliaisonwithwhomIcouldgetintouchsothatplanningcouldbestarted.Afteramoment’shesitation,GeneralMarshallreplied:“Idon’tliketobringtoomanypeopleintothismatter.Isthereanyreasonwhyyoucan’ttakethisoveranddoityourself?”My“No,sir,Iwill”concludedtheconversation,whichconstitutedtheonlydirectivethatIeverreceivedorneeded.

(LeslieGroves)

BeforeGroves could create the target list (and thus, the reserved or protectedlist),hehadtoconsidermanyfactors:

I had set as the governing factor that the targets chosen should be places thebombingofwhichwouldmostadverselyaffectthewilloftheJapanesepeopletocontinue the war. Beyond that, they should be military in nature, consistingeither of important headquarters or troop concentrations, or centers ofproductionofmilitaryequipmentandsupplies.Toaccuratelyassesstheeffectsofthebomb,thetargetsshouldnothavebeenpreviouslydamagedbyairraids.Itwasalsodesirablethatthefirsttargetbeofsuchsizethatthedamagewouldbeconfinedwithin it,so thatwecouldmoredefinitelydetermine thepowerof thebomb.

(LeslieGroves)

Hereisourfirstmentionofthe‘undamaged’criterion.Again,weseeemphasisonthestrategic/militaryvalueofHiroshima–obvioustoGeneralGrovesevenathis removeof thousandsofmiles from thebattlespace.The ‘reserved’ listwastheoutputofacommitteethatGrovesthensetup:

Thenextstepwastosetupaspecialcommitteetorecommendspecifictargets.

ThisgroupmetforthefirsttimeonMay2inWashington.

At its thirdmeeting, the Target Committee was informed that General ArnoldandIhadconcludedthatcontrolovertheuseoftheweaponshouldreside,forthepresent,inWashington.Thisannouncementwasnecessarybecausesomeofthe Air Force people on the committee had displayed a total lack ofcomprehension of what was involved. The operation would not be formallyconsideredandacteduponbyeither theJointChiefsofStaffor theCombinedChiefs.Oneofthereasonsforthiswastheneedtomaintaincompletesecurity.Equallyimportantthough,wasAdmiralLeahy’sdisbeliefintheweaponanditshoped-foreffectiveness; thiswouldhavemadeactionby theJointChiefsquitedifficult.Whenourtargetcitieswerefirstselected,anorderwassenttotheArmyAir Force inGuam not to bomb themwithout special authority from theWarDepartment.

(LeslieGroves)

So now finally, no earlier thanMay 1945, we get the first order to the fieldconcerning what was to be ‘reserved’ and ‘protected’. It’s most likely thatHiroshima(andNagasakiaswe’llsee)wasnotchosenasanA-bombbecauseitwas‘un-damaged’–rather,itwaschosenbecauseitwas‘pre-damaged–injusttherightwaytoserveasthemoviesetforanatomicattackofthetypethathadbeenadvertisedtothebrassastheManhattanProjectpayday.

Reconnaissance revealed to the Committee that Hiroshima had been pre-pounded in such a way that the destruction could, with perhaps a pre-dawnfinalizingraidandsomedog-and-ponypsyopwork,berepresentedasacitythathad gone from fully populated, undamaged normal functioning to a totalmoonscapeinlessthan60seconds.Itwasapparentlythebestchoiceamongthe67 pre-damaged alternatives they must have considered. After the war, therecords would have been scrubbed to make it appear that Hiroshima had, bysomekindoftelepathicprecognition,beenmysteriouslysparedor‘pre-reserved’– throughout half of 1943, all of 1944, and half of 1945 - by the otherwise

incessantly bloodthirsty and hyper-active United States strategic bombingcommand.

But, for the sakeofargument, let’s stickwith the standard story.Let’sassumethatforsomeunfathomablereason, theHiroshimacorecityareahadnot,asofAugust 5th, been raided and burned out. Let’s take Hiroshima as the oneremaining unblemished plum, or at least as a pre-damaged target that stillrequiredsomefinishingtouchesandsomefinaltenderizing.It’swellestablishedthatonthenightpriortotheEnolaGaymission,abigoperationwentout:

Todivertattention,amajoreffortbythe20thAFwasconductedonthenightof5/6August1945by602B-29’sstrikingavarietyoftargetsincludingtheurbanareas of: Saga, Maebaski, Nishinomiya, Imabari, the oil refinery at Ube andvarious mining targets. The biggest effort by 250 planes was againstNishinomiya, a town close to the Inland Sea and about 140 miles east ofHiroshima.ThiseffortwasinlieuoftheinitialrequestbytheCorpsofEngineerstoGen.LeMayfor1000B-29’stoaccompanytheatomicbombtotheEmpire.

(‘NoStrategicTargetsLeft’F.J.Bradley)

Gotthat?Theyhadthecapabilityofsending1000B-29’souttoaccompanythe‘specialmission’–butsupposedlytheydidnot.Afewtargetsarelistedabove,buttheword‘including’indicatesthatlistisnotexhaustive.Contemporarynewsstories inUSnewspapers confirmed that therewas a “580-plane attack in thepre-dawn of Aug. 6 with 3,840 tons of bombs on four cities and a coalliquefactionplant.”SomeofthesetargetcitiesareveryclosetoHiroshima.

During the night of August 5–6, Japanese early warning radar detected theapproachofnumerousAmericanaircraftheadedforthesouthernpartofJapan.Radardetected65bombersheadedforSaga,102boundforMaebashi,261enroutetoNishinomiya,111headedforUbeand66boundforImabari.

(Wikipedia)

Most of those target cities had already been bombed to useless, scantilypopulated junkyardsmonthsprior.Thedrive-byrationale isusuallyoffered(asintheaccountabove)thattheAugustraidswerejusta‘diversionary’tactic.Andyet, by this time the USA had absolute air superiority over Japan and couldoperatefromtheairwithimpunity.SoIcan’thelpwondering–divertingwhoseattentionfromwhat,exactly?

From the above account, we know that Imabari was supposedly targeted thatnight. It’s possible that Kure, a major (already destroyed) naval base nearHiroshima,mayhavebeenspecifiedasanotherso-called‘diversionary’target.IngeneraltheHiroshimaneighborhoodwasatarget-richarea,aslongasyoudidn’tquestion why the rubble was being bounced and re-bounced. The relevantdistancesareshowninthemap.

HiroshimaareatargetssuchasImbari(rightendofdistanceline)andKure(middleofdistanceline)separatedbyshortair-mileflights.

ThereareonlyafewdozenairmilesbetweenImabariandHiroshima,withKurealongtheway.AsfortheactualconditionofImabariatthattime,digifyouwillthepicture:

“When Iwas looking at the train timetable, I found that no trains stopped atImabaristation…Iwonderedwhythethirdlargestcityintheprovincehadnotrain service. It sounded ridiculous... The other guy said, “Wow! No ImabariStation.But…allthetrainspassbyImabariStation.”Athirdguysteppedup…“It’snotstrangeatall.There’snostopbecausethere’snoImabariCityanymore.ItgotburneduplastAprilintheairraid…Nobuildings,nohouses,nopeople… The whole city burned up and the people ran away …” A fellow soldierexplained toManabe.“Theairraidscameon the26thofApriland the8thofMay. Imabari was burned up. My father was in business there. We had awholesaledraperbusiness.Allgone.Allburnedup.”

(‘Inferno:theFirebombingofJapan’EdwinHoyt)

So,tosummarizetheHiroshimaoperation,here’swhatlikelywentdown.

It appears that anywhere from 250 to 1000 B-29’s (exact count uncertain,depending on how much of a touch-up and light-show was needed) hitHiroshima-areatargets,includingthecityitself,onthenightandearlymorningof August 5 and 6. Those attacks were the usualmix of incendiary and highexplosives, blasting stuff to ruins and triggering the firestorm. Standardprocedure.ProbablyHiroshimaproper,centraldistricts,washitlast,tocoincidecloselywith thatmorning’sarrivalof theEnolaGay. Iamassuming theEnolaGayprobablydid reallyput inanappearanceover thecity, for thesakeof theflight logs,posterity,history,orHollywood.Theyprobablyreleasedsomekindof‘pumpkin’device(practiceatomicbombshell)thatwasriggedforabigflashanddispersalofradiation(thusbecomingtheseconddirtybombinhistory,aftertheTrinity100-Tontest).

Myestimateofthenumberofplanesrequired,afewhundredatmost,isbasedboth on the recorded number of active flights in the time window (as we’veseen)andalsoontheSurvey’sestimateofwhatwouldhavebeenneeded.Notehowever, that a lot of the damage was probably inflicted over the precedingseveralmonths.

Onthebasisoftheknowndestructivenessofvariousbombscomputedfromthewar in Europe and the Pacific and from tests, the Survey has estimated thestrikingforcethatwouldhavebeennecessarytoachievethesamedestructionatHiroshimaandNagasaki.Tocausephysicaldamageequivalenttothatcausedbythe atomic bombs, approximately 1,300 tons of bombs (one-fourth highexplosivesandthree-fourthincendiary)wouldhavebeenrequiredatNagasaki--in the target area. To place that many bombs in the target area, assumingdaylight attacks under essentially the same conditions of weather and enemyopposition thatprevailedwhentheatomicbombsweredropped, it isestimatedthat1,600tonsofbombswouldhavehadtobedroppedatHiroshimaand900tonsatNagasaki.Tothesebombloadswouldhavetobeaddedanumberoftonsof antipersonnel fragmentation bombs to inflict comparable casualties. Thesewould add about 500 tons at Hiroshima and 300 tons at Nagasaki. The totalbomb loads would thus be 2,100 tons at Hiroshima (400 HE, 1,200 IB) and1,200tons(675HE,225IB)atNagasaki.Witheachplanecarrying10tons,theattacking force requiredwouldhavebeen210B-29satHiroshimaand120B-29satNagasaki.

(U.S.StrategicBombingSurvey)

In thecontextof1945Japanstrategicoperations, the resource requirement fortheseoperationsisabsolutelytrivial.Afterthewar,CurtisLeMaysaidthatintheneweraoftheA-bomb:“oneairplanedoestheworkofhundreds”.Butaswithany mathematical equation, it can also be reversed as needed for specialoperations:“Hundredsdotheworkofone.”

Flash

Groundwitnesses oftenmentioned the pika-don (ピカドン) effect. This meansbasically ‘flash-bang’. In the chaos andmadness of an incendiary raid,whichincludes high explosives, flashes and bangs are certainly expected.As for thesinglepika (flash) it’s possible (thoughnot really essential) thatEnolaGayoranotherplanedeployedaphotoflashbomb.

Aphotoflash bomb, or flash bomb, is explosive ordnance dropped by aircraft,usually military surveillance aircraft, designed to detonate above ground tocreate an extremely bright flash of light. These bombs, which are capable ofproducing light at an intensity of up to hundreds of millions of candlepower,assistsurveillanceaircraftintakingnighttimeaerialphotoswithouttheneedtofly low to the ground which would make it vulnerable to possible enemydetection.

(Wikipedia)

Eveniftheseweredetonatedatdaybreak(ratherthantheintendednightusage)anybodylookingdirectlyattheflashwouldfeelit,justasyou’dfeelitifaflashcamerawentoffinyourface.Itneednothavebeen‘brightasathousandsuns’tobe noticeable. One thing you sometimes hear as one of the abstractly citedeffects of a nuclear bomb’s flash is genuine permanent blindness. There don’tseem to be verymany (or any) verified cases of that, but theM46photoflashbombwasdefinitelynofuntolookat:

The resulting flashof light lasted forabout 1/5thof a secondandhadapeakintensityofapproximately500,000,000candlepower.

(www.harringtonmuseum.org.uk/m46-photoflash-bomb/)

Radiation

To those on the wrong end of the gun, ‘dirty bomb’ radioactive materialsdispersalisnotthesamethingasdirectexposuretoatomicradiationeffects.BymyFAILhypothesis,thereshouldn’thavebeenanyso-called‘prompt’radiationeffects from the Little Boy attack. There should be only dirty bomb types ofcontamination (and not a whole lot of that). Therefore, the acute radiationsicknessreportsmusthavebeeneithermisunderstoodburneffects,orplainover-reporting, exaggeration and fakery. It’s possible the dispersed radioactivematerial fromEnolaGay did have an effect on some people’s health, but that

was not likely to have been as intense or immediate as later reported. Dirtybombsjustaren’tthatdangerous,it’smoreofapsy-opconcept.

Evenifareal‘LittleBoy’haddetonated,evenifeverythinghadbeenstrictly-to-spec by the conventional book,we should remember that the blast height andotheraspectsoftheplanwere,accordingtoLeslieGroves,designedtominimizeradiation effects. Even the humid air of the Japanese summer would havemilitated against the extreme radiation effects thatwere later reported.So at aminimumtheremusthavebeenexaggerationofatleastthataspectofthebombeffects. Please don’t think I’m callous about any of this.My breezy tone justsoothesthehorrorofhavingtowriteaboutsuchthingsatall.Ifevenonepersonwashurt in anyof this,whether s/hewascarbonized,vaporized,barbecuedorliquefied,that’sonetoomany.

Movingonfromtherelativelystraight-forwardcaseofHiroshima,andturningtoNagasaki,again there’s the‘nuclear target list’ thing.Thiswas theshort listofgood nuclear attack targets that was circulating among committees andprincipalsofthewarcommandandtheManhattanProject.

It should be remembered that in our selection of target, the 20thAirForce isoperatingprimarily to layingwasteall themainJapanesecities,and that theydonotproposetosavesomeimportantprimarytargetforusifitinterfereswiththeoperationof thewar fromtheirpointofview.Theirexistingprocedurehasbeen to bomb the hell our of Tokyo, bomb the aircraft manufacturing andassembly, engine plants and in general paralyze the aircraft industry so as toeliminate opposition to the 20th Air Force operations. The 20th Air Force issystemicallybombingoutthefollowingcitieswiththeprimepurposeinmindofnotleavingonestonelyingonanother:

Tokyo,Yokohama,Nagoya,Osaka,Kyoto,Kobe,Yawata,&Nagasaki.

(NotesonInitialMeetingofTargetCommittee,May1945)

Again,weseeNagasaki,butnotHiroshima,amongthecitiesexplicitlylistedasundergoingmassivedestruction.ThatfitswiththerevisedstoryoftheHiroshima‘specialmission’givenabove.

Althoughonlyeightcitiesaregivenasexamplesof‘notleavingonestonelyingonanother’,weknowfromthecitationof67destroyedcitiesthatinfacttherewasalotmoredestructiongoingonatthetime.SoifweleaveasideKyotoandthe Imperial Palace for the reasons mentioned earlier, the key elementsremainingbysummerof1945boileddownprettymuchtothefollowingchoicesthat were to be “reserved” for the ‘special missions’ (atomic attacks) –Hiroshima,Kokura,Niigata.

Furthermore itconfirmsthatNagasakiwasneveronanynuclear‘reserved’ list(handsoff, 20thAir Force!) until days before the attack, if then. This iswell-documented.

OnJuly24th,IsendamemorandumtoGeneralMarshallatPotsdamtoobtainhisfinalapprovalofourplanofoperation.Attachedtoit[was]…aone-pagedraftofanecessaryactionbytheJointChiefsreleasingthepreviouslyreservedtargets (allbutNagasaki,whichhadneverbeenreserved) to theCommandingGeneral,ArmyAirForces,forattackonlybythe509thGroup,20thAirForce.

(LeslieGroves‘NowitCanBeTold’)

Nagasakiisalong,thincitystrungthroughavalleyleadingdownfromthenorthtoasouthernportareathatgivesintothesea.Thesouthernmostpartofthecityisahistoricalandculturalhotspot.Duringthewar,themorenortherlypartofthecity,inandaroundtheUrakamiValley,wasthesiteofimportantarmsplantsandfacilities.Considerthisaccountoftheresultofthe‘nuclear’attackonthatarea:

TheFatManweapon, containingacoreofabout6.4kg (14 lb)ofplutonium,was dropped over the city’s industrial valley at 32.77372°N 129.86325°E. Itexploded47seconds laterat1,650±33 ft (503±10m),abovea tenniscourt

halfway between the Mitsubishi Steel and Arms Works in the south and theNagasakiArsenal in thenorth.The radiusof totaldestructionwasabout1mi(1.6km),followedbyfiresacrossthenorthernportionofthecityto2mi(3.2km)southofthebomb.About58%oftheMitsubishiArmsPlantwasdamaged,andabout78%oftheMitsubishiSteelWorks.TheMitsubishiElectricWorkssufferedonly 10% structural damage as it was on the border of the main destructionzone.TheNagasakiArsenalwasdestroyedintheblast.

(Wikipedia)

Inotherwords,thepartofNagasakisupposedlyhitbythebombwasasweetandjuicymilitary target.Yet by all accounts, itwas only the purest accident of alucky cloud break that pushed theNagasaki atomic attack to target this plum,afterdiversionfromKokuradue tovisibility issues.Followedbydiversionyetagainof thedroppointwithinNagasaki,modifiedawayfromthe(supposedly)pre-assignedaimingpointwhichwasmoresoutherly,closertotheportarea.

Let’sthinkabouthowlikelyitwasthatthisareawouldhavebeensparedfromthebombingcampaignthathadbeenragingforatleasttheprioryear.Wasthisprime military zone really left untouched? Consider that for the previous 12months or more, USA marines, sailors and airmen had been dying by thethousands, up against Japanese arms, planes, ships, bombs and torpedoes.Theslogan‘RememberPearlHarbor’wastheemotionalgastankofallthatstruggleandpassion.

RememberPearlHarbor

NowconsiderthisconventionalclaimofoneresultofFatManoverNagasaki:

The Mitsubishi-Urakami Ordnance Works, the factory that manufactured thetype91torpedoesreleasedintheattackonPearlHarbor,wasdestroyedintheblast.

(Wikipedia)

Howlikelyisitthatthisfactoryhadbeenspared?Especiallysinceweknow(see

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_91_torpedo

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

above documentation) that Nagasakiwas in fact bombed prior to August. SoNagasaki,farfrombeinguntouchednuclear-virginrealestate,waslikelytotallybombed out long before.And based on the description and logic above,mostespeciallythemilitaryworksoftheUrakamiValleywouldhavebeentargetedallalong.Somemayarguethatthisareawouldhavebeenspared,becausethreadedamong the arms plants were hospitals, schools, and churches. To that I say -please.ThiscampaignwasunderthedirectionofGeneralCurtisLeMay.IfyoutellmethatCurtisLeMaysparedanythingonhumanitariangrounds,IcanonlyreplywithMichaelCorleone’sclassiccomeback:“Nowwho’sbeingnaïve?”

TheUrakamiValleyhadalreadybeen totallydemolisheddays,weeks,orevenmonths prior to August 1945. That state of ready-made desolation, far fromrulingoutNagasakiasanucleartarget,ispreciselywhatmostperfectlyqualifiedthe Urakami Valley for the staging of a fake attack. Let’s confirm thissuppositionwithacloserlookatthesituationontheground.

NagasakiEntirebookshavebeenwrittenabout theFatManmission,howscrewedup itwas(atleast,relativetothepicture-perfectLittleBoydelivery),howBock’sCar(the specialmission’sB-29bomber) first overflewKokura as a primary targetbut diverted toNagasaki due to visibility concerns. It is theoretically possiblethatKokurawas indeed the (alsopre-demolished)primary target, even for thefakescenario,butIdoubtit.ItappearsthattheUrakamiValleywaspre-selectedforitsidealstateofruin,wellinadvanceofthemission.First,notetheidealizedtargetingrationaleinthemissionaccountbelow,whichisatvariancewithothernarrativesofthe‘luckycloudbreak’allowinglast-minuteaccessonlytoatargetdistantfromthe(supposedly)pre-plannedaimingpoint.

Almost the entire population of 230,000 was engaged in the manufacture ofarms,munitions, and otherwar products. TwogreatMitsubishi factorieswerelocatedintheheartofthecity.Tothenorth,oneoftheworld’slargesttorpedoplants.Andfurthersouth,thehugesteelandarmsworks.Thebomb,whichwas

droppedonNagasakiwasaimedatapointmidwaybetweenthetwoplants,tobesuretocausethegreatestpossibleindustrialdamage.UnlikeNagasaki,theforceof the explosion was largely confined to the industrial valley, which wassurroundedbyaseriesofhills,whichshieldedmanyotherareasofthecity.

(‘TheAtomStrikes’1945)

Thataccountisatleasthonestinonerespect.Ithighlightstheobviousmilitarymotivation(whichexistedwellbeforeFatMan)fortheUSstrategicforces’pre-demolitionoftheUrakamivalley,operatingentirelyindependentlyof,andpriorto,anyawarenessofthenuclearoption.Theindustrialpartofthecityhadbeenpre-demolished, as we’ve already seen. Contrast the idealized version abovewith another rendition, below. It seems the air is slowly being let out of thewholeKabukiproduction:

1158:UponarrivingatNagasaki,Bockscarhasenough fuel foronlyonepassoverthecity,evenwithanemergencylandingatOkinawa.Nagasakiiscoveredwith clouds, but one gap allows a drop several miles from the intended aimpoint.BombardierKermitBeahanreleasesFatMan.

1202(11:02AMNagasakitime):FatManexplodesatanaltitudeof1,650feetwith a yield of 22,000 kt over theMitsubishi Steel and ArmsWorks near theperimeterofthecity.

The failure todropFatManat theprecisebombaimpoint caused theatomicblasttobeconfinedtotheUrakamiValley.Asaconsequence,amajorportionofthe citywasprotected from the explosion.TheFatManwasdroppedover thecity’sindustrialvalleymidwaybetweentheMitsubishiSteelandArmsWorksinthesouthandtheMitsubishi-UrakamiOrdnanceWorksinthenorth.


Sonowwesuddenlyhavea“dropseveralmilesfrom”anda“failuretodropat”thebombaimpoint.They felt theyhad touse theUrakamivalley, as thepre-

demolitiontherewasthebestavailable.Atthesametime,theremayhavebeenfretsordisagreementsinthehighcommandaboutwhethertheexistingdamagethere was really adequate to support the sci-fiwrath-of-heaven nuclear myththeywerebuilding.Sotheyhedgedtheirbetswithvariablestories,oneofwhichis thepresentstandardnarrative that themissionwasnotexecuted tospecandthereforetheresultsweren’tquiteasimpressiveaswouldotherwisebeexpected.Buttheyneedn’thaveworried,aseveryonehasthoroughlyboughtintoit.

Conveniently,therearenoprofessionalmilitarysurveyphotosoftheimmediateon-the-dayaftermathbecause:

The third plane, piloted by Hopkins, arrived three hours later after circlingNagasakiandphotographingthedamagewithanunofficialcamerathatayoungphysicist,HaroldAgnew,hadsnuckonboard.Thiswasfortuitous.Nooneontheplane knew how to operate the official camera because theman assigned thetaskwaskickedoffbeforetakeoffbecausehehadhastilygrabbedaraftinsteadofaparachute.

(BulletinoftheAtomicScientists)

In any case, however it is said to have come about, FatManwas supposedlydroppedon theUrakamiValley area ofNagasaki.Let’s take that conventionalstorylineasthepointofdeparture.

WhatreallyhappenedatNagasakiisthekeytoeverything–thekeytothefutureand the fate of humanity.That’s because, even if theHiroshima atomic attackwaslikelyfaked(aswe’veseen),indicatingthatLittleBoywasmerelyaKabukinuke, that still leaves the door open for nuclear weapons of the moresophisticated FatMan design. People talk about the so-called ‘Von Neumannarchitecture’ of digital computers – the fundamental processing model stillreflectedintoday’smachines.Wecouldtalksimilarlyaboutthe‘VonNeumannnuke’.TheimplodedplutoniumconfigurationthatVonNeumannmadepossibleis the essential basis for everything that comes after – including the fission

triggers for thehydrogen super-beasts of the1950’s andbeyond. IfHiroshimaalonewasfaked,butNagasakiwasreal,we’restillscrewed.ThatscenarioleavesuswiththehistoricalcuriosityoftheHiroshimastagingforacademicstoponder,buthumanityremainsunderthenuclearswordofDamocles.

So.Whatreallyhappened?Clearly,theUrakamiValleywasdestroyedinWorldWar II.Let’snot entertainanydoubtson that score.Thequestionsare, just aswithHiroshima:whenandhow?I’mnotgoingtogetintothetechnicalaspectsof the supposed mission per se. I’ll deal mostly with the logic of observedeffects.Youcan’tcriticizeamissionwhere(despitetheconventionalnarrativeofmissedrendezvouspoints,insufficientfuel,andtargetingsnafu’s)Murphy’sLawseems to have been suspended in that at least the device itself, when finallydropped,did‘work’(supposedly).

Anynumberoflittlegotcha’scouldhavepreventeditfromworkingtospec.Forexample,what’stoguaranteeFatManwouldn’tfreezeataltitude?ThefirstH-bombfeasibilitydemonstration,codedforthetestasIvyMike,wastriggeredbyafissionbomb,notdissimilarinbasicprincipletoFatMan(butsportingsomenew‘chromeandfins’forsure).

TheprimarystagewasaTX-5boostedfissionbombinaseparatespaceatoptheassembly(soitwouldnotfreeze,renderingitinoperable).

(Wikipedia)

Freeze… inoperable. Fortunately the Fat Man was more robust than itsdescendant,becauseeventhoughtheB-29’scockpitcouldbeheated,thebombbaywasnot.Itgetscoldat30,000feetaltitude.ButI’mnotgoingtodwellonthis kind of trivia. Maybe only the added ‘booster’ component would bevulnerableto“freezing”.All’swellthatendswell.Let’stalkabouttargetingandgroundeffects.

Conventional thinking, which of course accepts the FatMan atomic account,

concludedthattherewasnofirestorminNagasaki:

Although many fires likewise burnt following the bombing, in contrast toHiroshimawheresufficientfueldensitywasavailable,nofirestormdevelopedinNagasaki as the damaged areas did not furnish enough fuel to generate thephenomenon.Instead,theambientwindatthetimepushedthefirespreadalongthevalley.

(Wikipedia,citingGlasstone,Samuel;Dolan,PhilipJ.,eds.(1977).TheEffectsofNuclearWeapons.Washington,D.C.:UnitedStatesDepartmentofDefense

andtheEnergyResearchandDevelopmentAdministration)

Let’s call this the ‘Effects’ account of the attack, denying there was anyfirestorm. Can that be accurate? No, it’s wrong. Even if the obvious on-siteevidencedoesn’tregister,inmyviewit’sundeniablethatafire-stormdestroyedthe Urakami Valley. This is confirmed by the classic photograph of thepyrocumulus cloud rising over Nagasaki, Japan, supposedly 20 minutes afterdetonation, 9 August 1945, photographed from Koyagi-jima, a small islandsouthwestofNagasaki.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firestorm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firestorm

PyrocumuluscloudrisingoverNagasaki,Japan,approximately20minutesafterdetonation, 9 August 1945, photographed from Koyagi-jima, a small islandsouthwestofNagasaki.(HiromichiMatsuda)

A pyrocumulus cloud is the unmistakable signature of a firestorm. These areobserved in firestormswhicharise fromnaturalcausessuchas forest firesandvolcanoes.

Pyrocumuluscloudrisingfromawildfire.

The pyrocumulus cloud is the signature of a firestorm. Thiswas borne out inHiroshima,wasalsodestroyedbyafirestorm.

Hiroshima’sfirestorm(left)withitssignaturepyrocumuluscloud(nottheatomicmushroom cloud as often wrongly tagged). Twenty minutes after detonation,during the formation of this firestorm, soot-filled black rain began to fall onsurvivors.Anaturalfirestorm’spyrocumulus(right).

Wildfirepyrocumuluscloud.

Furthermore,theeffectsonthegroundareconsistentwiththatphenomenon.Soobviouslythe‘Effects’account,whichdeniesthatthefirestormwaspossibleortookplace,iswrong.Infact,manyorthodoxanalysts(i.e.notnutsoconspiracytheorists) do accept that a firestorm took place. But strangely enough, thoseorthodoxanalysts -whoassert that a firestormdid result fromFatMan in theUrakamiValley-are,by theirownlogicof thebomb,wrong.By theacceptedlogic of the bomb and the hit zone, there in fact should not have been afirestorm.The‘Effects’accountwouldactuallybecorrect–bytheconventionalstory.

HaveIlostyou?Let’sponderinfinerdetail.Ifabombwiththestandardcitedfeatures of Fat Man had hit a virgin, un-demolished Urakami Valley, thereshouldhavebeennofirestorm.The‘Effects’authorsarerightthat,ifithadbeenarealatomicbomb,‘thedamagedareasdidnotfurnishenoughfueltogeneratethephenomenon’.Basicallytherewouldn’thavebeenenoughstuffleftstanding,

in any kind of shape to burn, in the narrow confined valley, attacked by a 20kilotonnuke.Itwouldallhavebeencarbonized,vaporized,blowntodustinaninstant.Thevalleywouldhavebeen eviscerated.A firestormneeds a standingcity as its initial breeding ground. The authors of the ‘Effects’ report werescripting according to thebombcharacteristics, not according towhat actuallywentdownthatday,andpriortothatday,intheUrakamiValley.ObviouslythelegitimateNagasakifirestormphotoneednothavebeenshoton thedayof thesupposednukeattack.Itwasprobablyshotatleastamonthortwoprior.

Tosummarize:conventionalanalystscanhavetheirNagasakiA-bomb–butthentheydon’tgettheirfirestorm.Andwithoutthefirestorm,it’shardtoaccountforthepyrocumuluscloudphoto (and thenatureof thedestruction in theValley).Ontheotherhand,theycanhavetheirfirestorm–butthentheycan’tkeeptheirA-bomb,bythelogiccitedinthe‘Effects’passage.QED.

DownfallThebackgroundyouneedtounderstandwhyJapansurrenderedtothebombandcolludedinthescamliesinrecognizingthatthewarwasdesignedmoreaspsy-opthanasmilitarypracticalityfromtheverybeginning.

ThecenterofgravityoftheproblemwasmissedbytheCombinedChiefsofStaff.Hadtheyseenthatitlayininterdictingmovementandnotinfire-raising,surelytheywould have donewhat the twelve civilianmembers of the [United StatesStrategic Bombing Survey (Pacific War)] suggested should have been done,which was as follows: “A successful attack on the Hakodate rail ferry, theKanmontunnelsandnineteenbridgesandvulnerablesectionsoflinesoselectedas to set up five separate zones of complete interdiction would have virtuallyeliminatedfurthercoalmovements,wouldhaveimmobilizedtheremainderoftherailsystemthroughlackofcoal,andwouldhavecompletedthestrangulationofJapan’seconomy.Thisstrangulationwouldhavemoreeffectivelyandefficientlydestroyed the economic structure of the country than individually destroyingJapan’scitiesandfactories.ItwouldhavereducedJapantoaseriesofisolated

communities, incapable of any sustained industrial production, incapable ofmovingfoodfrotheagriculturalareastothecities,andincapableofrapidlarge-scale movements of troops and munitions. “The Survey believes that such anattack, had it been well-planned in advance, might have been initiated bycarrier-basedattackson shippingandon theHakodate ferry inAugust, 1944,couldhavebeen continuedby serialminingof inlandwaterways beginning inDecember, 1944, and could have been further continued by initiating therailroad attack as early as April, 1945. The Survey has estimated that forcerequirements to effect complete interdiction of the railroad systemwould havebeen 650 B-29 visual sorties carrying 5,200 tone of high-explosive bombs.Deduct from these figures the 15,000 sorties and 100,000 tones of incendiarybombsdroppedonthesixty-sixJapanesecities,andtheresidueisafairmeasureofthewasteofmilitarymeansandeffort,alsoofthestrategicerror(sic!)oftheCombinedChiefsofStaff.”

(’TheSecondWorldWar,1939-45:AStrategicalAndTacticalHistory’J.F.C.Fuller)

So, vicious as the city bombing campaign undeniably was, it was more fordemoralization and punishment than for practical military neutralization. Thepsy-opaspectofthewarpersistedintothefinalnuclearphaseaswell,withbothsideshavingverystrongreasonstobuyheavilyintothefakeout.Japanhadlostthegamelongbefore,butaswesay:騎虎の勢い(it’shardtodismountatiger).Giventhesituation,theatomicstorywasanabsolutegodsend.

Though in the United States the story is bomb-centric, in fact the SupremeCouncil (wartime leadership) did not rush tomeet immediately following thenewsof theHiroshimabombing.Acrisis-mode fullmeetingwasconvenedonAugust9th–butthatwasseveraldaysafterHiroshima.ThusHiroshimadidnotseemtolightafireunderanybody.Afterall,they’dhad67citiestrashedalreadyandnobodyhadbeenpushedtotalkseriouslyaboutsurrender.AndneitherwasNagasaki the catalyst for this extraordinary gathering. The Supreme CouncilmeetinghadbeenconvenedthatmorningbeforeNagasakiwashit.

At11:30A.M.,whiletheBigSix[leaders]wereengagedinaheateddebateonwhat to do about the Potsdam terms, news of the second atomic bomb onNagasaki was relayed to the Supreme War Council. The Nagasaki bomb,however,hadlittleimpactonthesubstanceofthediscussion.Theofficialhistoryof the Imperial General Headquarters notes: “There is no record in othermaterials that treatedtheeffect[of theNagasakibomb]seriously.”Describingthe Big Six meeting on this crucial day, neither Togo nor Toyoda mentionedanythingabouttheatomicbombonNagasaki.

(‘RacingtheEnemy:Stalin,Truman,andtheSurrenderofJapan’TsuyoshiHasegawa)

Therefore, neither atomic bombing was the event that really spooked theleadershipintoconsideringsurrender.Sowhatwastheurgency?Itwasthis:

At11pmTrans-Baikal timeonAugust8,1945,Soviet foreignministerMolotovinformedJapaneseambassadorSatōthattheSovietUnionhaddeclaredwaronthe Empire of Japan, and that from August 9 the Soviet Government wouldconsideritselftobeatwarwithJapan.[11]AtoneminutepastmidnightTrans-Baikal time on August 9, 1945, the Soviets commenced their invasionsimultaneouslyonthreefrontstotheeast,westandnorthofManchuria.

(Wikipedia)

Japan’s leaders knew theywere in no position to fight a two frontwar. Theyunderstood the immediateproximityandstrengthof theRussian forces. ItwasobvioustothemthatJapanwouldbeinvadedandenduppartitionedatbest,orentirely occupied by the Soviets at worst. This would have intolerableconsequences on both the practical and ideological levels. Under the Soviets,there would be little chance of retaining the status of the Emperor, or anysemblanceoftraditionallife.Thewartimeleaderswouldbeblamedforproddingthe nation forward to absolute ruin and all would be summarily executed –

includingtheentireImperialFamily(remembertheRomanovfamily).

Soviet attack, not theHiroshima bomb, convinced political leaders to end thewarbyacceptingthePotsdamDeclaration.

(‘RacingtheEnemy:Stalin,Truman,andtheSurrenderofJapan’TsuyoshiHasegawa)

Thewarwasacompletefailure.ThegloriousEmpireoftheSunlayinsmokingruins–‘notonestoneatopanother’.Meanwhiletheleadershiphadbeenfeedingthe people bullshit all along about how there was still hope, and gloriousvictoriesstilllayahead.Theconceptof‘face’(honor,reputation,shame)isbiginJapan.Itwouldbehumiliatinganddangeroustoadmitopenlythatitwastimeto surrender because we, your divinely infallible leaders, seriously screwedthingsupbyeverstartingthisinthefirstplace.

But a science fiction weapon, that nobody could withstand, that no strategicgeniuscouldhavepossiblypredicted,theverywrathofheavendescendingfromoutofnowherelikeathunderbolt–there’sanidealmade-in-Hollywoodescapehatchandcoverstory.Attributingthesuddenabout-facetowardsurrendertotheA-bombwouldalsogeneratesympathyforJapanasavictimofdemonicforcesrather than a cruel imperialist hegemon, and would also curry favor withAmerican vanity (not tomention theUSA’s post war international PR plans).Acceptingandcentralizingthebomb’sroleasthetriggerfortheendstageservedeverybody’sinterests.Andsoitcametopass.

Nagasakihypocenter:curbyourbloodlustorsufferthewrathofheaven.

TheMikeoftheBeast

AndIbeheldanotherbeastcomingupoutoftheearth;andhehadhornslikealamb, and he spake as a dragon. And he exerciseth all the power of the firstbeastbeforehim,andcauseththeearthandthemwhichdwellthereintoworshipthe deadlywound of the first beast…And he doeth greatwonders, so that hemaketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men, Anddeceiveththemthatdwellontheearthbythemeansofthosemiracleswhichhehadpowertodointhesightofthebeast;sayingtothemthatdwellontheearth,thattheyshouldmakeanimageofthebeast.

(Revelation13:11-15)

H-BombIhaven’tsaidanythingabouthydrogenbombssofar,andIdon’thavemuchtosayabout themnow.The thing is that theH-bombstandsor fallsaccording tothestatusoftheoriginalfissionnukes.Ifexplosivefissionistrulypossible,iftheFEARhypothesis turns out to be true, ifHiroshima andNagasaki reallywerenukedtooblivion,thenforgetit.There’dbenoreasonnottodogpileonwithanH-bomb at that point. Remember that hydrogen bombs use fission devices astriggers.At thatpoint, Iwouldputmyhandsupandsurrender, raise thewhiteflag.Nukes are real, fine,have it yourway. Iwouldn’tdrawanarbitrary line,saying yes to fission-FEAR, but no to fusion-FEAR (although some of theoriginalManhattan scientists did hold that position at various times, believingtheH-bombcouldnotwork).

Some,ifnotall,oftheH-bombtestfilmslookprettycheesy.It’samazingwhatcan be done by cleverly combining and editing simple clips of clouds andsunrisesviastandardvideotechniqueslikecropping,zooming,re-timing(fasterorslower),KenBurns,keyframes,etc.Nottomentiondramaticscarymusical

scoring.

Andwhentheydidsometimeshaveachancetoblowsomethingupforreal,somuchthebetter,morefeedstockforthespecialeffectseditorstoworkwith.Forexample,considerthefirstUSAhydrogenbombtest.

IvyMikewasthecodenamegiventothefirst testofafull-scalethermonucleardevice, inwhichpart of the explosive yield comes fromnuclear fusion. ItwasdetonatedonNovember1,1952bytheUnitedStatesontheislandofElugelabinEnewetakAtoll, in thePacificOcean,aspartofOperationIvy. Itwas the firstfull test of theTeller–Ulamdesign,a staged fusiondevice.Due to its physicalsizeandfusionfueltype(cryogenicliquiddeuterium),theMikedevicewasnotsuitable for use as a deliverable weapon; it was intended as an extremelyconservativeproofofconceptexperimenttovalidatetheconceptsusedformulti-megatondetonations.

(Wikipedia)

Anyway, the thing supposedly worked, although it was noted that 77% of itsoutputwasactuallyfissionyieldfromtheuraniumtamperwithintheenclosingcylinderofcryogenicdeuterium(aformofhydrogen)fusionfuel:

Thetestwascarriedouton1November1952at07:15localtime(19:15on31October,GreenwichMeanTime).Itproducedayieldof10.4megatonsofTNT.However,77%of the final yieldcame from fast fissionof theuranium tamper,whichproducedlargeamountsofradioactivefallout.

(Wikipedia)

It’s a good thing all that fissionworked sowell actually, given that in fusionreactorexperimentation:

Typical fuel pellets (deuterium+ tritium) are about the size of a pinhead andcontainaround10milligramsoffuel:inpractice,onlyasmallproportionofthis

fuelwillundergofusion,butifall thisfuelwereconsumeditwouldreleasetheenergyequivalenttoburningabarrelofoil.

(Wikipedia)

Or, in the case of a bomb, the energy equivalent to exploding a barrel of oil.Therefore,youcanpicturethehydrogen/fusionpartofthebombasamountainofoilbarrelsbeingtorchedbutonlypartiallyignited.Animpressivelightshow,butof course the fissiondoes theheavy lifting. In fact, thehydrogenbomb ismainlyjustawayofgettingmorebangforyourfissionbuck.Fusionproduceslotsofneutronssobyclevermutualreinforcementofthetwoprocesses(fissionto trigger fusion, fusion in turn generating more and ‘hotter’ neutrons foradditionalfission)youincreaseoverall(putative)yield.

WorkingfromtheFAILhypothesisrequiresustotakeastagecraftpointofviewthough, because FAIL does not admit the reality of explosive fission chainreactionsinthefirstplace.Thename“hydrogenbomb”probablydoesnotreferto real fusion of deuterium into helium. It’s more likely the name is appliedbased on themain conventional element used in the show. For the films theyprobablyblewupahugecylinderofhydrogen (possibly spikedasyet anotherdirtybombproduction).RemembertheHindenburg!

TheHindenburgbeginstoblow.

LookoutMountainStudiosWhateverhappenedinthedemo,theywereabletojackitupwithsomespecialeffectsappliedbyasecretivequasi-governmentalfilmunitinLosAngeles.

The entire [Ivy Mike] shot was documented by the filmmakers of LookoutMountainstudios.Apostproductionexplosionsoundwasoverdubbedoverwhatwasacompletely silentdetonation from thevantagepointof thecamera,withtheblastwavesoundonlyarrivinganumberofsecondslater,asakintothunder,withtheexacttimedependingonitsdistance.Thefilmwasalsoaccompaniedbypowerful,Wagner-esquemusic featured onmany test films of that period andwas hosted by actorReedHadley.A private screeningwas given toPresidentDwightD.Eisenhowerin1953,afterhesucceededPresidentHarryS.Truman.In1954,thefilmwasreleasedtothepublicaftercensoring,andwasshownon

commercialtelevisionchannels.

(Wikipedia)

AsfortheLaurelCanyonunit:

What would become known as Lookout Mountain Laboratory was originallyenvisionedasanairdefensecenter.Builtin1941andnestledintwo-and-a-halfsecluded acres offwhat is nowWonderlandParkAvenue, the installationwashidden fromviewandsurroundedbyanelectrified fence.By1947, the facilityfeatured a fully operational movie studio. In fact, it is claimed that it wasperhaps theworld’sonlycompletely self-containedmovie studio.With100,000square feet of floor space, the covert studio included sound stages, screeningrooms, film processing labs, editing facilities, an animation department, andseventeen climate-controlled film vaults. It also had underground parking, ahelicopterpadandabombshelter.

Over its lifetime, thestudioproducedsome19,000classifiedmotionpictures–more than all the Hollywood studios combined (which I guess makes LaurelCanyonthereal‘motionpicturecapitaloftheworld’).Officially,thefacilitywasrun by theU.S. Air Force and did nothingmore nefarious than process AECfootage of atomic and nuclear bomb tests. The studio, however, was clearlyequipped to do far more than just process film. There are indications thatLookout Mountain Laboratory had an advanced research and developmentdepartment that was on the cutting edge of new film technologies. Suchtechnological advances as 3-D effects were apparently first developed at theLaurelCanyonsite.AndHollywoodluminarieslikeJohnFord,JimmyStewart,HowardHawks,RonaldReagan,BingCrosby,WaltDisneyandMarilynMonroeweregivenclearancetoworkatthefacilityonundisclosedprojects.Thereisnoindicationthatanyofthemeverspokeoftheirworkattheclandestinestudio.

(‘WeirdScenesInsidetheCanyon’DaveMcGowan)

LookoutMountainstudioposter.

SomethingFishy:BikiniLet’stakeanotherlookatBikiniatoll.

Thenuclear testingatBikiniAtollprogramwasaseriesof23nucleardevicesdetonatedbytheUnitedStatesbetween1946and1958atseventestsitesonthereef itself,on thesea, in theairandunderwater.The testweaponsproducedacombinedfissionyieldof42.2Mtofexplosivepower.

(Wikipedia)

Oneparticularlynastytestwasheldthere.

CastleBravowasthefirstinaseriesofhigh-yieldthermonuclearweapondesigntestsconductedbytheUnitedStatesatBikiniAtoll,MarshallIslands,aspartofOperation Castle. Detonated on March 1, 1954, the device was the mostpowerful nuclear device detonated by the United States, and its first lithium-deuteride-fueledthermonuclearweapon.CastleBravo’syieldwas15megatonsofTNT,2.5timesmorethanpredicted.

(Wikipedia)

HereiswhattheblastmapforBravowouldlooklikeovertheBikiniatoll:

15megatonBravotestcoveredBikiniatollwithblastandheat.(seeBibliographyforfullcreditofmapandoverlay).

Herewehaveafewmilesof fragilecoral reef,elevatedonlyafewfeetabovesea level, that was subjected to a sustained atomic attack of massedoverwhelmingheat,blastandradiationpowerneverbeforeknownonthisplanet.The sand and limestone of the ground, beaches, and lagoon floor by rightsshouldhavebeenfusedintoadisgustinglunarslag,thekindofthingyoufindonthehigherreachesoftheaustereKilaueavolcanoinHawaii–atotalmoonscape.ButinfacttheplacelooksmorelikeanundevelopedversionofWaikiki.

[At Hiroshima], solid materials on the ground immediately below the burstprobablyattainedsurfacetemperaturesof3,000to4,000°C(5,400to7,200°F).

(‘TheEffectsofNuclearWeapons’GlasstoneandDolan)

Whenfirsteruptedfromavolcanicvent,lavaisaliquidusuallyattemperaturesfrom700to1,200°C(1,292to2,192°F).

(Wikipedia)

Keep in mind that virtually every one of these dozens of tests was very farbeyondtheyieldpowerofLittleBoyandFatMan.YetasfarasIknow,nobodytraveling from Bikini has reported any bikinitite analogous to the trinititediscussedearlier. Infact theplaceseemstobefine,apartfromsomelowlevelradiationinthecrabs.ThoughBikiniisremote,sincethere’dbemoneytomakefrom selling bikinite, somebody would already be doing it, because a touristprogramhasnowbegun.

Afterthe23nuclearexplosionsthattheUnitedStatesconductedonthisremotecoralatollinthe1940’sand50’s,onealmostexpectstovisittodayandfindjustafewcharredisletssurroundedbybrackishwateremittinganeerieglow.SotheamazingthingaboutBikiniishowaliveitis:awhitesandislandfullofcoconutpalms swaying over a perfect turquoise sea, fish and sea turtles swimminglanguorously by the beach. There are also a few tourists, andmanymore areexpected,becauseBikiniisnowoncemoreopentothepublic.

(TheNewYorkTimes,March5,1997)

Bikiniatoll’s‘CastleKoon’testsite-110kilotons(almost6xFatMan)detonatedfromabargejustoffshoreinthelagoon.Ifyouviewedthisphotographincoloryou’d see lush green, sandy beach, clear lagoon, healthy sea vegetation. TheaverageelevationofBikiniatollis2metersabovesealevel(7feet).

Therearemanyodditiesabout theBikini testhistory (even the total testcountvaries,bysource,from23‘explosions’to67–it’struethatafewwereplannedbut cancelled, not enough to account for all the variation). One interestingfeature of the atoll is the concrete cap over the Cactus test crater, on RunitIsland.The‘CactusDome’isaconcretecoveroveratestcraterthatwaspressedinto service as a dump for a scrape of supposed radioactive topsoil from theatoll’s islands. Just barely offshore from this hole is the leftover crater fromanothertest,Redwing-Lacrosse.Here’showthetwocratersstackupagainstoneanother:

Hardtack-Cactus(surface):18kilotons,350feetdiametercrater.Redwing-Lacrosse(surface):40kilotons,600feetdiametercrater.

The diameter figure for Lacrosse is specified byWikipedia’s ‘Redwing’ entrydatatableasfollows(asofearly2017,untilcorrectedasaresultofthisbook):

Mockup of the TX-39. Left a visible Crater off Runit Island, next to CactusDome,600ft(180m)indiameter.

(Wikipedia‘OperationRedwing’;row‘Lacrosse’indatatable)

So far so good, a double blast yield should leave approximately double thedamage(cratersize)andindeedthat’swhatisusuallyreportedonpaper,asyousee above. Likewise, in physical reality the Lacrosse crater should be prettymuchdoublethesizeoftheCactuscrater.

But it clearly isn’t.They are about the same size.And don’t think theCactusDomewasoverfilledbeyondthecrater,becauseeverysourcethatgivesspecsfortheDomeitselfspecifiesafiguresomewhereinthe300to350range,whichcan

beverifiedbymeasuringacrossthesatellitephotos.It’sthesameasthereporteddiameteroftheoriginalexplosioncrater.Ifyouthenmeasureacrossthemapofthe Lacrosse crater in various places and take an average, the diameter therecomes to about 375 feet diameter. In reality the two craters are basically thesamesize.

CactusDomefilled-intestcrater(bottom)withadjacentLacrossecrater.Theyareessentiallythesamesize.

Whyhasitbeenreportedsodivergently?Nogoodanswer.Theremaybesourcesthat report a more accurate (smaller) diameter for the Lacrosse crater thanWikipediadoes.But thatwill simplybeg thequestionagain:whyare they thesamesize,whenonebombwas twice theyieldof theother?ThoughLacrossewasonaplatformaboveveryshallowwater,botharecharacterizedas‘Surface’bursts. Seems like their overall conditions were too similar to allow for analtitudeor topographicfactor insuchasurprisingoutcome(cratersof identicalsize).

Itwouldbe lunatic to fantasize that theLacrosse ‘crater’of the same sizewasmade simply by dredging fake fill from the lagoon floor for the immediatelyadjacentCactus.Nobody inhis rightmindwouldhint for evenamoment thattheyburied a lot of soil, not because it is radioactive, butpreciselybecause itisn’t(andleavingthatlyingaroundopenlywouldn’tbegoodforthestory).

ButIshouldchilloutandcutslack.It’snotliketensofmillionsofdollarswerespentonpreparing,conducting,andanalyzingthesetests.It’snot‘realscience’oranything,soIshouldeaseupandleavesomewiggleroom.Iadducethisoneexample merely to illustrate the interesting oddities that crop up all over theBikinihistorywhenyoubeginto‘dig’intoit.

CloudySkies

There are many interesting anomalies in the Bikini aerial footage also.Sometimesthesameexplosionbeginsinanatmospherewithathicklowcloudceiling inonephoto sequence,while another sequenceof the same test showsclear,brightandsunnyskies.ThatmaybejustaPOVproblem.

OneofthemostbeautifultestswastheCrossroadsBakerunderwaterblastwhichweexaminedearlierinthecontextofcomparativecratersizes.TheCrossroadstestswere pre-gamed atminiature scale, well in advance, under very realisticsimulatedconditions.

Pre-gamemodelingworkforCrossroads.

SCALEMODEL“ATOMICBOMB”TESTS.InpreparationfortheBikinitestsanumberof scalemodelexperimentswereconductedat theTaylorModelBasinnearWashingtonD.C.toaidinestimatingthesizeandcharacterofwavesthatwouldbeproducedby theactualatomicbombexplosions.ScalemodelVictoryshipswereconstructedofthinsheetsofbrassandfloatedinthe“lagoon”shownabove.ScaledamountsofTNTwereused tosimulate theatomicbombs.Thesetestsweremadeinaspecially-constructedtankknownas“LittleBikini.”Otherstudiesweremadeonalargerscale,using500-poundamountsofexplosive,intestsconductedat theNavalMineWarfareTestStationatPatuxent,Maryland.In both types of scaled experiments effects noted were the size of the water

crater,height,persistencyanddiffusionofplumes.

(‘OperationCrossroadsTheOfficialPictorialRecord’)

TheTaylorModelBasin(referredtointhephotodescription)isagiant indoorship testing facility that functions as a perfect sound stage for simulating anykindofnavaloperation.

It’s interesting to examine the effect of Baker’s huge nuclear shock wave onpuffylittlecloudswhichobstructitspath.Thephotoplanes(mannedanddrones)fortheBakershotwerecirclingatabout10,000feetaltitude.Inthesequenceoffilmframes,wenoteasmallcloudatthestart.Itisbetweenthephotoplaneandtheburst.Thisisacumuluscloud.

Cumuluscloudsareoftendescribedas“puffy”,“cotton-like”or“fluffy”inappearance,andbeinglow-levelclouds,aregenerallylessthan2,000m(6,600

ft)inaltitude.(Wikipedia)

Thiscloudissubsequentlyengulfedbytheplumeandalsohitbytheshockwave.

Cloudtrackingthroughanukeblast.

Inthephotosequence,weseeattopleftthepre-detonationscene,time00:01.Apuffylittlecumulusrestsbelowandbeneaththephotoplane,betweenitandtheblast. At time 00:06, the camera shifts left to center the detonation, cloudunchangedasneitherblastwavenorplumehavearrivedyet.Between00:11and00:13 thingsgetweird,becauseour littlecloud iscompletelyenveloped in theplume/vaporoftheblast.Thoughitlookskindof’roidedup,ourcloudishidingat (or inside) the indicated location.Theblastwavealso rocked theplane and

camera at about this point, 00:10 to 00:11. That’s acceptable ‘effecting’ ifwetaketheblastwavepropagationatsomewhereintheneighborhoodofthespeedofsound.Wellbefore00:17(showninfollowingpanel),thecloudhasresumeditsexactoriginalshapeandposition.Thelowerleftpanel00:41resultsfromanunexplainedextremeM-shapedupanddownjoltingofthecameraand/orplane.By00:49atthebottomright,everything’scenteredbacktonormal.

When the air is locally disturbed by the nuclear blast shock wave, acondensation/vaporcloudshoulddisappearoratleastbedistortedand/ormoved.Note that the mild ‘bending’ effect seen in rocket trails commonly fired atnuclear tests is (byhypothesis) something entirelydifferent,That is anopticaleffect in the intervening atmosphere, not a direct impact of the blast onto thevapor trail. But here we don’t even get any bending, hooking or breaking assometimesnotedintherockettrails.

PhotoandFilmChecklistThe New York Times claimed in a 2010 article that “in all, the atomicmoviemakersfashioned6,500secretfilms,allovertheworld”.It’simpossibletogo throughevery film tomicro-analyze all the anomalies frame-by-frame.Butcertain strange featuresoccuroftenenough to formapreliminarychecklist forcriticalanalysis.I’mnotclaimingthatthepresenceofanyoralloftheseissuesin any one given film totally invalidates the FEAR hypothesis. The FEARhypothesisisalreadylaiddownandoutforthecountbeforethebellevenrangfor this chapter. I don’t rely on second-guessing movie special effects.Nevertheless, as you do your own research itmay be interesting to note howoftentheselittlegotcha’scropup.

Soundeffects:Mostof the test filmsarecheesedupwith thegoofyWagnerianMuzak-likenoise(mentionedabove),toexciteandinspireuswiththegloryofitall.Veryoffensivebutwhatcanyoudo?Suchwasthestateofhumanevolutionwhen these were made and probably now too.More to the point though, forthoseclipswithout theNukezak,tryingtogiveoffmoreofan‘authentic’vibe,

watch out for craftilymisaligned initial blast sound. Knowing the educationlevel of the average fool at whom these masterpieces were aimed, thefilmmakershavealmostalwaysshfitedtheblastsoundback(totimeitwiththeinitial flash). As far as is known, only one or two films that purport toincorporate authentic blast soundhavedone sowith ‘OriginalTiming!©’ (stillfake of course, by the FAIL hypothesis).Not a ‘smoking gun”, because it’s aknown‘thing’evenintheconventionalanalysiscommunity,butjustsomethingto watch for. It shows that they are perfectly willing to game the tape foremotionaleffect(andtomeettheDumboaudience’sexpectations).

Shadows: It’s common innuke test photos and films toobserveno significantchange in sunlight shadowscausedby theblast.Often there’sonlycontrastorexposurechange(ifanychangeatall)–thingsthatareeasilymanipulatedinthedarkroom.

Shadowstendtobeoddlyunaffectedbytheatomiclightatinstantoftheblastsaidtobe‘brighterthanathousandsuns’.

Crazycuts:Thefilmscutallovertheplace,backandforthbetweenlongshots,close-ups, audience reaction, effect on materials, and so on. It doesn’t proveanythingunderhanded,buttendstodistractfromcarefulsequentialobservation.

StaticSegments:Sometimesportionsofanotherwise fast-evolvingblast cloudor effect scene are static, while a single privileged or highlighted elementdevelops along the time track.The reverse is also sometimes seen (everythingexceptastaticcentralelementcontinuestoevolve)

MysteryPOV:Sometimes it’shard to imaginehowagiven shotwasobtainedshortofastudiosound-stageclose-up.

Conspiracy!

It is one of those instances where the reasoner can produce an effect whichseemsremarkabletohisneighbour,becausethelatterhasmissedtheonelittlepointwhichisthebasisofthededuction.

(SherlockHolmes)

We’ve gone through some intense material up to this point. Let’s take aphilosophy break now. There seems to be a culture clash between so-called‘conspiracy theorists’ on one side of the divide and defenders of rationalorthodoxyontheother.Conspiracytheoristsproposeanddefendunconventionalinterpretations of events andmotives. Such analyses (including this book) areviewedbydefendersoforthodoxthoughtasabsolutedroolingidiocy.

Let’s call those who regard themselves as rational, sober, mature, informed,emotionallystabledefendersofcommonsenseandscientificfidelitythesoldiersof‘ConsensusRealityOntologicallyCertainKnowing’(CROCK)-upholdersoftruth.Theyarecamelsneverstrayingfromthedesertofthereal.Idon’tmeantopokefunateitherside.Itotallygeteachside’spointofview.Conspiracypeoplereallyarealittletoowhackedoutsomeofthetime.AndtheCROCKpeoplearetooanallyuptightformytaste.Conartistsalwayssaythat thosewhoaremostcertain they cannot be fooled make the best marks. And at bottom bothpopulationsarejustpeople,strugglingforsurvival,satisfaction,andsignificanceinthiscoldworld.

Apart from thevalidityof anyone theory (conventional or conspiratorial), it’sinterestingtolookatthepsychologyofbothsides.ThemastersofCROCKlovenothingbetterthanarmchairpsychoanalysisofconspiracytheorists.Whentheyask themselveswhyanybodywouldbelieve thepatently lunaticbullshitwhichthe average conspiracyguy takes as revealed truth, they always comeupwith

someversionofthefollowinglist:

Ignorance(ofscience)Compensation(wantingtofeelspecial)Anxiety(seekingcertaintytoalleviatefear)Boredom(helpingtoenlivenanotherwiselacklusterday)Avarice(sellingbooks,lectureseats)Perversity(trolls,haters,teenagers)

Let’sgothroughtheseoneatatime.

Ignorance:TheCROCKstershaveapointhere.Yourtypicalconspiracytheoristisnotaswellversedintechiesubjectsasheorsheoughttobe.Yettheyoftenopineonhighly technical areas that lieoutside their core competence. (if theyevenhaveacorecompetence).

Compensation: The conspiracy theorist is taken to be a basement-dwellingloser/loner who buttresses himself in the face of the world’s indifference orrejection with the false solace of knowing more than his betters. It’s egoreinforcement.Ofcoursethere’sacertainhalf-lifetothat.Astimepassesandthecontentofanygivenconspiracytheorybecomesmorewidelyknown,thecachetofholding‘secret’knowledgeaboutwhat’sreallyhappeningtendstodiminish.

Anxiety:It’sassumedthattheconspiracytheoristcan’thandletheharshnessoftherealworld,thustheyescapetoafantasyworld.Aworldtheycanunderstand,control,interprettoothersandgenerallyown.

Boredom: Speaks for itself. Reality can be (perceived as) boring, but withunlimitedmentalfantasyyarnyoucanweaveanyexcitingstory,ofinfinitethreatorpromise.

Avarice:Theaverageconspiracy theorist justpokingaround thewebmaynotmakemuch,butpeoplewhorunthelargerconspiracyblogsandsitesprobably

make hundreds, maybe even thousands of dollars a year from their stuff!Possiblymore.Withthatkindofmoneyinthegame,badactorswillalwaysbetemptedtotrytheirhand.

Perversity:Anon-trivialpercentageofconspiracytypesarejusttrouble-makingtrolls,notevensincereintheirwickedness,justspoilingfortheattentionthatakeyboardflamewarradiates.Thesepeoplewillsayanythingforalaughandtoget a rise out of the comically serious and amusingly provoke-able camels ofCROCK.

Very satisfying! The trouble is that the above analysis of conspiracy nuts hasbilateralsymmetry.It’ssauceforbothgooseandgander.Itcaneasilybeturnedaroundandreplayedfromtheothersidewithoutlossofgenerality.Let’strythat.

Ignorance:Here in this one area, theCROCKsters dohavevalid point.Morescience is always good. That’s whywe need some open proof of the nuclearFEARhypothesis.

Compensation: Emotional compensation is another double-edged putdown.Isn’ttherealotofemotionalsatisfactioninfeelingthatyouareagoodcitizen,asobersoldierofrationality?Youcommandthehighgroundof logicandproof,youhaveeducation,authorityandrationality-allonyourside.Isn’tthatawarmfeelingfortheorthodoxrationalist?

Anxiety:Isometimeswonderwhyit’ssupposedtobemuchmorereassuringtosuspectthatyourgovernmentorothertrustedauthoritiesareouttoscamandkillyouorotherinnocents,ratherthanreposinginthesafecertaintythatyouareinthe soft hands of a responsible, adult, protective authority (CROCK). WhenCROCKpsychologizesandtsk-tsk’saboutconspiracytheorists,you’reboundatsome point to see a line like this: ‘People love certainty and find uncertaintyuncomfortable’. But who is more certain of him or her self than a soldier ofCROCK?They know that theUSAmilitarywouldnever conduct bioweaponsexperimentsonuninformedenlistedmen,norwouldtheCIAhavehadprograms

to influence the media, newspapers, academia, etc. Conspiracy theories aretreated like the field of AI, as an infinitely receding horizon. As soon as aconspiracy theory turns out to be true, it’s pulled over the velvet rope ofrespectabilityandisnolongercreditedtothelunatics’scorecard.

Boredom:Ihavehearditsaid,byRichardDawkinsandotherdefendersofthestatus quo that reality is much more exciting and beautiful when you look itsquarely and honestly in the eye. So I have to assume that CROCKsters areseekingexcitementandentertainmentbytheircleavingtotheorthodox,derivingmuch the same psychological benefit that conspiracy nuts are said to receivefromtheirfantasies.

Avarice:Whoa, champ!Do you really want to throw down on this particularpoint? I wonder whether the combined total income from books, websites,speakingengagementsorother activitiesof everymajor conspiracy theorist intheworldexceeds theweekly takefromasinglesodavendingmachine inonestaffloungeattheLawrenceLivermoreweaponslab.Itcertainlydoesn’tamounttotrillionsofdollars,decadeafterdecade.

Perversity: Here I’ll grant that a true soldier of CROCK is not normally amischievous Internet troll. They have a rigid and passionate sincerity. Creditwheredue.

Thepointisthatthesesidesarelargelymirrorimagesofoneanother,satisfyingthesameneedsinoppositeways.ThesoldiersofCROCKrationalityaremostlyprojecting their own qualities (anxiety, ego, greed, etc.) onto their mouth-breathing, knuckle-dragging opposite numbers in the conspiracy camp. Thatdoesn’tmeanonesideisn’twrongthough.CROCKisprobablymostlycorrect.Butisn’ttheresomevalueinhavingafewoutliers,likemutantroguegenesthatmaycausetroublebutcouldbeanaceintheholewhenamonolithicgenomeisattacked?

Strange bedfellows pop up in the eternal cat andmouse game of CROCK vs

conspiracy.Forexample,afewyearsback,achemicaland/orfueldumpblewupinTianjin,China.

On 12 August 2015, a series of explosions killed 173 people and injuredhundredsofothersatacontainerstoragestationatthePortofTianjin.Thefirsttwoexplosionsoccurredwithin30secondsofeachotheratthefacility,whichislocatedintheBinhaiNewAreaofTianjin,China.Thesecondexplosionwasfarlarger and involved the detonation of about 800 tonnes of ammonium nitrate.Firescausedbytheinitialexplosionscontinuedtoburnuncontrolledthroughoutthe weekend, repeatedly causing secondary explosions, with eight additionalexplosions occurring on 15 August. The cause of the explosions was notimmediately known, but an investigation concluded in February 2016 that anoverheatedcontainerofdrynitrocellulosewasthecauseoftheinitialexplosion.

(Wikipedia)

Sofarsogood.Butatsomepointabunchofconspiracytheoristsgotallworkedupabouthow thismusthavebeenanuclearexplosion. So they trotted out allkinds of crazy numbers about possible yield and temperature and blast effectsetc. Now, saywhat youwill aboutme, callme awhacko nutjob, but at leastyou’llnevercatchme in thatparticularconspiracycamp.Obviously!Anyway,thedefendersofCROCKnaturallyhadtorisetothisstupidbaitandlaboriouslydebunk thenukesuspicions.WhichtheydidverycompetentlyImustsay.Hatsoff.Forexample,thenukepeopleweresaying:Lookatthehugecrater!Onlyanuke could orwould blast out that size of hole!And they trotted out a photoapparentlyshowingagiganticnastypit.

Tianjin,China:hugenuclearcrater?

Butthedefendersoftherealwouldhavenoneofit,trumpingandsilencingtheoppositionbypointingoutthatthis‘crater’wasmoreaman-madelakeofsorts,created by natural drainage and filling of a shallow blast depression. The dryversionisn’tnearlyasscary-looking.

Tianjin‘blast’craternowdry-minusthefirefighter’sdrainagewater.

Going farther afield now, imagine the USA mil.gov had indeed created realnukesbut, forwhatever tactical reason,was intentonkeeping themabsolutelysecret, and was committed to denial, even when they were used? In thisalternativeworld,themil.govwouldhaveannouncedthatHiroshimawasmerelya firebombing,etc.Then, ironically,you’dhave ‘conspiracy theorists’ insistingon theexistence of nuclearweapons (which in this fantasy scenario,wouldbetrue) while the defenders of CROCK, who always toe to the line drawn byauthority,would be strenuously debunking, saying how ridiculous it is to talkabout crazy science fictionweapons that blow up citieswith a few kilogramsworthof‘bindingenergy’andprovingthat thedestructionwasduetoordinaryincendiary raids and so on.Thusdo the authorities playus like handpuppets.ButIdon’tresentthemforit.Thatistheirjob.

HowmanytimeshaveIsaidthattrickeryisthewayofwar?Isthatreallysucharadicalandcontroversialnotion?Thishasbeenknownsince theTrojanHorse.The great Chinese general Zhu Geliang (181–234 CE) was celebrated forbaffling the enemy with his infinite tricks and scams. The world has been atcontinuouswarsincethemiddleofthelastcenturywithnoendinsight.ThoughI deplore the inhumanity andwaste of it all, deepdown I’d franklybe a littledisappointediftheleadersand‘powersthatbe’werenotcreativeandenergeticenough to come upwith some really good scams from time to time, like thisnuclearthing.Butnowmaybeenoughisenough.

FireNoTime:Falsification

Father,Father,wedon’tneedtoescalate.Warisnottheanswer,Foronlylovecanconquerhate.

MarvinGaye

Skeptics(wait,whoisthereal‘skeptic’hereanyway?)mayretortthatthisbookhas presented only circumstantial evidence - no direct proof. And conspiracytheoristsareusuallyderidedforseizingobsessivelyonsmall,naturalanomaliesandmakingabigeffingdealofthem.Doh!Howcoulditbeotherwise?Allthedirect proof one way or the other is totally classified. A good detectivenecessarilyworksfromsmallclues.Anyway,inscienceitissaidthathypotheses(apartfromformalmathandlogic)cannotbeproven–theycanonlybefalsified.We’vegottenofftoagoodstartonthatjobwiththisbook.Thejobofprooffallstothosewhoasserttheexistenceofthesuperweapons.

Perhaps you’re rolling your eyes now, like:DUDE!There’s beenmegatons ofincontrovertible evidence! By that you mean the reports and films of tests,witness testimonies, historical accounts, etc. I get that. But the ultimatefalsification would be a city well and truly nuked to green glass parking lotoblivion.Itcouldbeyours.SoyoubetterhopemyFAILtheoryisneverfinallyfalsified.YoubetterpraythatTheBombisnothingbutaflash-bangdeviceforshow.

There’sagreatstoryinRichardRhodes’classichistoryoftheH-bombwherehetells of a tense moment in the run-up to developing ‘Joe 1’, the first Sovietnuclearweapon.

On one occasion, writes Zukerman, “they were readying an experiment

involving a large explosive charge, over one hundred kilograms. Suddenly thechargecaughtfire.Insuchcases,theburncantriggeradetonation,withallitsconsequences.[Thegroupleader]stayedcalmandcollected.Heledhisbrigadeto thebunkerandphoned thedispatcher toordereveryone tokeepaway fromthe area. This time, nature was kind: there was never an explosion and thecharge burned down without incident.” Accidents were acts of sabotage in[Beria’sSovietsecurityregime].Thescientistsattributedthefiretospontaneouscombustion – a passing bird had shat on the charge, they claimed, and thesplashofliquidhadfunctionedasalenstofocusthesunlight.Itwasastoryonlytechnologicalilliterateswouldswallow,andthebossesdid.

(‘DarkSun’RichardRhodes)

Don’tbe thoseguys. If thisbook’sFAILhypothesis is true, thatknowledge isguardedwaymoredeeplyand fearfully than thecompressibility factors forallsix (or seven!)allotropesofplutonium.Thatwouldbe totally ‘ShootOnSightEyes Only’ stuff. If, on the other hand, the FEAR hypothesis is correct, thehumanraceiswellandtrulyscrewed.Stickaforkinus.We’redone.

THEEND

Acknowledgements

Specialthanksanddeepestgratitudetothefollowingfriendsandcolleagueswhohavereviewedandcritiquedportionsofthiswork.Allopinions,conclusions,andanyerrorsof factor interpretationarestrictly theauthor’s.Wherever, insomecases,Ihavemorphedyourname(s)atyourrequest,well,youknowwhoyouareandhowvaluableyourinputhasbeen.

Thomas Godfrey, Don Sunada, Peter Hughes, Umeko Chiba, Uday Dhawan,FrankQuinn,NancyD’Auria, Felix Lake, ShirongXie, ZiminQiu,NiniDoi,Frank Leavey, Samuel Danenberg, Fumihiro Suzuki, Eric Su, Jin Nagasawa,UmejiBando,IndiraRanganathan.

Bibliography

(1)SPECIALATTRIBUTION:Illustrationof‘LittleBoy’uraniumbombinternals:

BasedonanillustrationbyFastFission(Image:Gun-typeNuclearweapon.png)and a modified version by Howard Morland (Image: Gun-Type FissionWeapon.png).Thebulletandthetargetwereslightlymodified(thebulletwasastack of rings per JohnCoster-Mullen research: ‘AtomBombs The Top SecretStoryofLittleBoyandFatMan’)

AuthorVectorversionbyDakewithEnglishlabelsbyPapaLimaWhiskey,linesmodifiedbyMfield.Asposted:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy

(2)SPECIALATTRIBUTION:All‘blastmaps’showingblastcontourringoverlaidontoreallocations:

nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ is a very useful and educational website thatallows the user to see extent of effects (thermal, radiation, and other) damagewithanyyield,atanydetonationheight,centeredonanyGoogleMapslocation.

CreatedbyAlexWellerstein,2012-2017.NUKEMAPissponsoredby:TheCollegeofArtsandLetters,StevensInstituteofTechnology.IassumethatProfessor Wellerstein generously allows public domain use of derived worksfrom the site, paying it forward as his own site relies on Google’s (AlphabetCorp.) generous permission to create his own derived works based onGoogleMaps.

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AbouttheAuthor

Akio Nakatani is a Professor of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. Hisresearch interests includeStochasticSystems,ParameterEstimation,StochasticOptimization, Monte Carlo Methods and Simulation, Neural Networks,StatisticalPatternRecognition,StatisticalImageAnalysis,NonparametricBayesand Bayesian Hierarchical Models, Time Series, Graphical Models,NonparametricBayesandBayesianHierarchicalModels.