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• November 15, 2014

M Niaz Asadullah

Development billboards: Numbers do not

lie, or do they?

December 10, 2013

Photo: bdnews24.com/Mustafiz Mamun

The ruling party sponsored billboards are back. This time they are bigger, better, and

lawfully erected, loaded with information, and visible throughout Dhaka city. Many

provide development statistics from current and previous regimes of the incumbent

government, at times also including figures from BNP’s last term. Apparently they

highlight Bangladesh’s exceptional progress in human development and attribute this to

the incumbent government.

Bangladesh’s achievements in certain social development statistics has been the focus of

numerous international media reports and academic analyses. Over the last five years, the

country featured as a prominent case study in many influential international publications

such as the Human Development Report, the Economist, the World Development Report

and the Lancet. In an election year, the ruling party has rightly capitalised on positive

global coverage of the country’s development records. However, what most media stories

and reports do not mention is the time path of our social progress. The billboard numbers

do not lie. But, they only tell you the half-truth and conveniently bypass areas where our

fate has changed very little.

Bangladesh emerged as a regional leader in some indicators decades before the billboards

were put up. Take for instance the case of female schooling. Bangladesh became well

known as something of a success in removing gender disparity in school enrolment rates

since the 1990s. This has been true for both primary and secondary education. Many of

of 11Development billboards: Numbers do not lie, or do they? | Opinion

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our key achievements in health also date back to the 1990s. According to the influential

Lancet series on Bangladesh’s health progress published last month, the coverage of child

immunisation programme increased from 59% in 1993–94 to nearly 82% in 2007. At the

same time, the biggest jump occurred between 1986 and 1993 considering that coverage

was at little as 2% in 1986.

No wonder, Bangladesh’s progress came under careful statistical scrutiny as early as the

1990s. Researchers from the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS)

arguably made the earliest attempt to assess the country’s progress in the first 25 years

since independence by comparing performance to other countries of similar income level.

Conducted in 1997, the research examined indicators such as expected life expectancy,

adult illiteracy, total fertility rate (TFR), and contraceptive prevalence rate in the early

1990s. The key findings were that Bangladesh performed better compared to its income-

predicted values for TFR and contraceptive prevalence rate. Few years later in 2006,

BIDS re-examined Bangladesh’s progress over the period 1970-2000 and

confirmed performance improvement in population growth rate, contraceptive prevalence

rate, infant mortality, and life expectancy even by the late 1990s.

More updated analysis of Bangladesh’s performance since independence shows that we

managed to reverse our initially poor record in terms of excessive infant deaths per

thousand and child deaths per thousand by mid 1990s — compared to other countries of

similar income level, excess mortality disappeared. This does not mean that further

progress did not occur in post-1995 period. Indeed there was also a sharp decline in child

mortality in post-1995 period.

Overall, the existing research points out that much of what we see in Bangladesh has

been happening for quite some time. Timings of the gains for different development

indicators have overlapped with different political regimes

(see http://www.bwpi.manchester.ac.uk/resources/Working-Papers/bwpi-wp-18913.pdf).

There is very little to suggest in the data that BNP or AL enjoyed greater success over

one another in advancing the country’s social development agenda. Bangladesh’s story

received wider coverage in the international media in recent years. This in turn creates

the illusion that Bangladesh has suddenly become a shining example for many other poor

countries desperately trying to break out of the under-development trap. Perhaps this led

some commentators to controversially conclude that when taking into account the

country’s human development progress, the incumbent government out-performed the

BNP (e.g. recent op-ed in the New York Times by Bangladeshi writer Tahmima Anam).

Instead of singling out a particular political regime, the recent Lancet series on

Bangladesh rightly attributes the progress achieved to a pluralistic system involving

many stakeholders. Irrespective of the party in power, the government was allowed to

form partnership with NGOs and external donors. Both BNP and Awami League avoided

the destructive strategy of discontinuing projects that was initiated during the previous

government’s regime. Presence of a vibrant media and civil society groups also helped.

Such policy consensus in social development highlights what would have been achieved

if we had political agreements in other areas such as large infrastructure development,

economic governance and private sector development.

For BNP and AL, the biggest challenge to winning votes today lies in not taking a visible

stand against corruption. When in power, both politicized key public institutions and

encouraged corruption affecting the banking sector, the capital market and functioning of

the executive branch. In terms of their respective governance records, there is little to

choose. Instead of playing billboard number games, political parties must organize their

election time campaign by around an agenda of good governance. After Hallmark,

Destiny, and the stock market episodes, simply juggling statistics will not buy votes.

———————————

Niaz Asadullah is a Professor in the Faculty of Economics and Administration at

University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur.

Tags: Awami League, Bangladesh, Billboard, Development, Economic prosperity

This entry was posted on December 10, 2013 at 8:23 pm and is filed under AL/BNP/Jamaat, Politics. You

can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.

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254 5



7 Responses to “ Development billboards: Numbers do not lie, or do

they? ”

1.

samiul on December 11, 2013 at 6:47 am

Very true. Number crunching will not make people forget about the massive looting

through share market and banks. I understand that it is safe not to mention judiciary. I at

least give credit to both bnp and BAL for continuing good projects. Thanks for

redirecting focus to right direction.

Reply

2.

NN on December 10, 2013 at 9:58 pm

Who is paying for the billboards?

Reply

3.

Bichhu on December 10, 2013 at 9:54 pm

Billboards are meaningless if no development work is done.

Reply

4.

Mainul Alam on December 10, 2013 at 9:44 pm

True the development and prosperity is a long term process, it’s not an overnight

phenmomenon. But the ruling party did work hard for the prosperity. And why shouldn’t

publicize their feat in the billboards? Every other country does so during election. My

only observation is the billboards could have aesthetically better.

Reply

5.

Ritu on December 10, 2013 at 9:41 pm

Bangladesh is yet to learn how to do positive publicity.

Reply

6.

Khaleque on December 10, 2013 at 9:40 pm

Billboard will not get votes, sincere work will.

Reply

7.

Golam Arshad on December 10, 2013 at 9:28 pm

The SPIN OF FAILURE will never clinch the Mandate of the people. Blood, Violence

hallmarked vengeance and vendetta. Will PEACE be thrown into the mire of violent

confrontation. BAL BNP and Jamaat in “People’s Dock”!

Reply

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de l ment billbrds: numbers d n lie, d theˇˆ · pdf filehighlight bangladesh’s...

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