dclg household projections bob garland housing markets and planning analysis division bob garland...
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DCLG Household Projections
Bob Garland
Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division
Bob Garland
Housing Markets and Planning Analysis Division
Comparison of the 1996 and 2003 based projections
England Average annual growth
Av annual growth 96
Av annual growth 03
Increase in rate of growth
Private Hhold Pop 134,500 218,700 63%
Households 152,600 209,100 37%
One person hholds 108,100 149,500 38%
Increased household growth results from higher population projections but households increasing faster than population due falling average household size and more one person households and increased longevity.
Increased household growth results from higher population projections but households increasing faster than population due falling average household size and more one person households and increased longevity.
Regional Growth
Population growth between 2003 and 2026
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
North East
North West
West Midlands
Yorks and Humberside
ENGLAND
East Midlands
South East
London
South West
East of England
Population growth between 2003 and 2026
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
North East
North West
West Midlands
Yorks and Humberside
ENGLAND
East Midlands
South East
London
South West
East of England
Household Growth by Region(2003 based)
Table A: Household projections
Numbers of households (000) Average annual change
Percentage increase
2003 2026 2003 ~ 2026 2003 ~ 2026
North East 1,088 1,211 5 11%
North West 2,874 3,378 22 18%
Yorkshire & the Humber 2,104 2,511 18 19%
East Midlands 1,782 2,230 19 25%
West Midlands 2,193 2,602 18 19%
East 2,286 2,926 28 28%
London 3,093 3,926 36 27%
South East 3,348 4,184 36 25%
South West 2,137 2,745 26 28%
England 20,904 25,713 209 23%
Components of Change
Components of Household Growth England
2003 Based
Components of change (%):
adult population level 58
age distribution 20
marital status distribution -3
household membership rates 20
remainder (cross products) 6
Drivers of Growth
The Drivers of Household Growth in the Regions
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
remainder(crossproducts)
householdmembershiprates
marital statusdistribution
populationdistribution
adultpopulationlevel
The Drivers of Household Growth in the Regions
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
remainder(crossproducts)
householdmembershiprates
marital statusdistribution
populationdistribution
adultpopulationlevel
Household Growth - England 2003 to 2026
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2003 2011 2016 2021 2026
one person
other multi-person
lone parent
cohabitingcouple
marriedcouple
Household Growth - England 2003 to 2026
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2003 2011 2016 2021 2026
one person
other multi-person
lone parent
cohabitingcouple
marriedcouple
Household Projections
23% growth in household numbers.
209 additional households per year.
31% of household growth is due to international migration.
One person households increasing fastest.
23% growth in household numbers.
209 additional households per year.
31% of household growth is due to international migration.
One person households increasing fastest.
Regional Perspective
Regional Growth by Household Type: Annual change (000's)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50 one person
other multi-person
lone parent
cohabitingcouple
married couple
Regional Growth by Household Type: Annual change (000's)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50 one person
other multi-person
lone parent
cohabitingcouple
married couple
Married couple households are not declining as quickly in the East Midlands, East or South West.
All regions are experiencing a similar pattern of growth.
Married couple households are not declining as quickly in the East Midlands, East or South West.
All regions are experiencing a similar pattern of growth.
One person households
One Person Households by Age.
2003 2026
Under 35 16% 13%
35 - 54 27% 29%
55 and over 57% 58%
Population Growth in England 2003 to 2026
Natural Change
46%Migration
54%
Population Growth in England 2003 to 2026
Natural Change
46%Migration
54%
Migration
Slightly more than half the population growth in England is directly due to international migration.
In the long run migration becomes an increasingly important aspect of population growth as the number of births is projected to fall.
Slightly more than half the population growth in England is directly due to international migration.
In the long run migration becomes an increasingly important aspect of population growth as the number of births is projected to fall.
Based on annual net growth from natural increase and net international migration; excludes long term natural increase associated with the immigrant population
Keep Migration in Perspective
In England, net migration accounts for 65,000 of the 209,000 (31%) annual average household growth (2003 based) despite accounting for 54 per cent of population growth.
In England, net migration accounts for 65,000 of the 209,000 (31%) annual average household growth (2003 based) despite accounting for 54 per cent of population growth.
Migration and the Regions
The amount of migration into each region as a proportion of the national total
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
North East North West Yorkshireand theHumber
EastMidlands
WestMidlands
East London South East South West
Recent house building and the household projections
0
50
100
150
200
250
Net additional stock 2004/05 2003 Household Projections
Ad
dit
ion
al d
wel
ling
s p
er y
ear
(000
's)
North East
North West
Yorkshire & Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East
London
South East
South West
Population projections: National: Government Actuary’s Department. Sub-national: ONS
Marital status projections:
National: Government Actuary’s Department (de jure) National: ONS (de facto) Sub-national: ODPM
Communal establishments population projections:
National: ODPM Sub-national: ODPM
Household formation (via household representative rates):
National: ODPM Sub-national: ODPM
Input Data Sources
Increasing Population
The latest population projection from the ONS is higher than the one used to produce 2003-based the household projections.
2004-based household projections will reflect this increased growth.
In both projections population growth is due to natural change and migration in roughly equal parts.
The latest population projection from the ONS is higher than the one used to produce 2003-based the household projections.
2004-based household projections will reflect this increased growth.
In both projections population growth is due to natural change and migration in roughly equal parts.
Population Projections: England
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
56,000
57,000
2003-based 2004-based
Population Projections: England
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
54,000
55,000
56,000
57,000
2003-based 2004-based