The role of GIS in delivering Effective Humanitarian Assistance

George Mu’ammarVAM - Food Security Analysis Service

United Nations World Food Programme, Rome, ITALY

george.muammar@wfp.org

The World Food Programme

WFP is largest food aid agency of the UN working in more than 80 countries worldwide

The main priority of WFP is to:

Provide timely and appropriate humanitarian assistance to save lives and protect livelihoods of the poor and vulnerable households against shocks and food emergencies

WFP’s Mission

• “WFP is the food aid arm of the United Nations system. Food aid is one of the many instruments that can help to promote food security, which is defined as the access of all people at all times to the food needed for an active and healthy life.”

• “WFP will concentrate its efforts and resources on the neediest people.”

• “WFP will focus on those aspects […] where food-based interventions are most useful.

WFP Programming challenge

• Locating the hungry and neediest– Who are the most hungry and at risk populations?

(population groups)– Where do they live? (geographical location)– How many they are? (beneficiary estimates)– Why they are hungry / what are risk factors?– When will intervention be necessary (Early Warning)– For how long ? (response duration)– How much assistance (resource mobilization)– What are appropriate responses? (intervention modality,

logistics, procurement, programming)– Can this re-occur ? (Monitoring and Emergency Prepardness)

• Ensuring their effective and timely integration into WFP's programming.

Training and Capacity Development

• Training on assessments

• Deployment of PDAs for data collection

• Mapping, G.I.S. and Spatial Analysis

Assessment Activities

Comprehensive Food Security

and Vulnerability Analysis

Food Security

Monitoring Systems

(incl. Market price

monitoring)

Emergency

Needs Assessment /

E. Food Security

Assessment

CFSVA

FSMS

ENA /

EFSA

GeoNetwork (VAM-SIE)

Ethiopia (Population)

Laos (Access to safe water) Niger (Agri Constraints)

Uganda (LGP)

Food Security Information and Outcome

Measurement Strategy

Shock event

Contingency

Plan

Emergency F.S.

Assessment

EMOP

PRRO

CP

Phase- out

hand-over

Emergency F.S.

Assessment /

CFSVA (2)

EMOP

Comprehensive

F. S. & V.

Assessment

Adjust-

ment

Adjustment

time

Early

Warning

Outcome

Measurement

FSMMS –

F.S. &

Markets

Monitoring

System

Feed-

back

Feed-

back

Comprehensive Food Security and

Vulnerability Assessment

• Food security– “…all people…, all times, have

access to sufficient ….food.. to meet their needs….” (WFS -FAO 1996)

– Proxy indicator: Food Consumption

• Based on 7 day recall of diet diversity of household

• Number of foods eaten in 7 days 0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

2,000,000

2,400,000

2,800,000

3,200,000

3,600,000

North Sudan

+ 3 Areas

Darfur Southern

Sudan

poor

borderline

adequate

Households Current Food Security

Livelihood Analysis

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

ordin

ary f

armer

s

farm

ers -

small

lives

tock

farm

ers -

remitta

nces

petty

trad

ers

farm

ers -

artis

an

unsk

illed

labor

ers

skille

d lab

or, tr

ader

wage e

arne

rs

agriculture production livestock rearingcrop sale livestock salemarket gardening cash crop salebrewing fishingunskilled labour skilled labourhandicrafts… natural resourcespetty trade trading income salaries-wagesporter begginggov allowance other

Estim

ate

d a

nn

ua

l in

co

me

($

/ho

use

ho

ld)

• Households have different & multiple, livelihoods strategies to secure income and food

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

≥3 roomsGrass roofNo toiletCooking woodSleeping matsBedTableBicycleMotorcycleHand tractorCattlePoultryP

rop

ort

ion

of

ho

us

eh

old

s

WealthyPoorWealth deciles

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0-4

.9

5-9

.9

10-1

4.9

15-1

9.9

20-2

4.9

25-2

9.9

30-3

4.9

35-3

9.9

40-4

4.9

45-4

9.9

50-5

4.9

55-5

9.9

60-6

4.9

65-6

9.9

70-7

4.9

75-7

9.9

80-8

4.9

85-8

9.9

90-9

4.9

95-1

00

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

Wealth Index

1 2 3 4 5

• Households have reserves, wealth, coping mechanisms, networks…– Proxy: the asset

wealth index

Coping Mechanisms

Assessment Observations

Yesterday: NDVI-based Drought Analysis

0 60 120 180 24030Kilometers

Inland Water

Main Rivers

National Boundary

Administrative Units Level 1

Administrative Units Level 2

Neighbouring Countries

Sea

Flood Frequency

High : 17 %

Low : 0 %

0 60 120 180 24030Kilometers

0 60 120 180 24030Kilometers

Inland Water

Main Rivers

National Boundary

Administrative Units Level 1

Administrative Units Level 2

Neighbouring Countries

Sea

Probability of Drought

High : 5 %

Low : 0 %

Flood risk –

localised

anomalies in

historical NDVI

Drought risk –

anomalies is dekad

29 in historical NDVI

Drought risk –

anomalies is dekad

15 in historical NDVI

WRSI for

Main Staples

• Water Requirement Satisfaction Index for sorghum in 2005.

Probability of

“severe” (*)

drought

(*) Severe drought is defined as a season where the WRSI for sorghum remains below 50%

Based on 11 years observations

%%

%

%

%

%

Number of households and

Vulnerability

• Combining exposure of livelihood groups to drought shock, current food consumption and the wealth indexhouseholds are categorized according to vulnerability to drought. 0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

2,000,000

2,400,000

2,800,000

3,200,000

3,600,000

North

Sudan + 3

Areas

Darfur Southern

Sudan

complex food

insecurecyclic - chronic

food insecurevulnerable to

any droughtvulnerable to

severe droughtnot vulnerable

Households

(*) Proportion of households expected to become food insecure during a season when the WRSI of sorghum is less than 50%

Risk Analysis –

Vulnerability to

“severe” (*)

drought

• Vulnerable households living in areas where drought occurs at least every 10 years are considered at risk

Conclusion: Drought risk to Food Sec.

Number of people affected by drought in 2008

(this morning)

Future: Modelling Assessment Data

Predicted values for Food Security

Indicators at unobserved locations

Emergency

Prepardness

and Response

Unit

Contact:

Amy Horton – Deputy Chief

amy.horton@wfp.org

Development Risk

Solutions

Unit

Contact:

Bronwyn Cousins - Business Analyst

bronwyn.cousins@wfp.org

Development Risk Solutions Platform

WeatherInformation

VAM Maps & Population Profiles =# in Need

Operational Costby

Country

Total Response Cost by Region

• The impact of climate change can be estimated in two ways:– Direct physical impact on weather events and crops of predicted

changes in temperature, rainfall• Established discipline of agro-meteorology and hydro agro-

meteorology

• Input rainfall and PET fields into DRSP can be varied

– Ricardian Approach• Assumes responses to climate in the observed past can be used to

estimate changes in future, without needing to model these changes explicitly

• All approaches considered, but direct approach has some advantages– Potentially easier to engage country counterparts and transfer

modeling technologies

Climate Change - Estimating Cost Impact

WeatherInformation

Estimated # in Need

Response Cost Estimate by

Country

Total Response Cost by Region

Logistics

Contact:

Eric Branckaert - Sr. Information Management Officer

eric.branckaert@wfp.org

Database Structure

www.logcluster.org