IMPACT 3.2 – Improvements and Updates

Daniel Mason-D’Croz

IMPACT 3 Review

• Disaggregated agricultural commodities (56 commodities)

• Disaggregated spatial allocation of crop production at sub-national level (159 countries, 154 watersheds, and 320 food production units)

• Details on physical use of land and water, trade policies, with resulting trade

• World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear international commodity markets

• Iterative year-by-year demand and supply equilibration

• Output indicators – calorie availability, malnutrition measures, share at risk of hunger, water consumption, yield growth and total production, area

IMPACT 3 Review

• Food production is driven by both economic and environmental factors and has both extensive and intensive components (area x yield)

• On the production side the model also accounts for the presence of irrigation and for exogenous technological change

• Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and population

• Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed prices, and feeding efficiency

• Other demand changes proportionally to food and feed demand

• Biofuel demand an exogenous calculation of demand for feedstock from different commodities (sugar, oils, maize, other) to meet a share of mandates in major countries

IMPACT Spatial Resolution

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159 •Countries

154 •Water Basins

320 •Food Production Units

Data SourcesIMPACT Parameter Data Source2005 World Prices (USD/mt) OECD-AMADPopulation (million)GDP (billion USD, PPP)

WDI and CIA World Factbook

Total Supply (000 mt)- Animals (000 animals), Harvest Area

(000 ha) and Yield (mt/ha or animal)Total Demand (000 mt) - Food, Feed, Intermediate, and OtherTrade and stock changes (000 mt)

FAOSTAT Commodity Balances

Calorie Availability FAOSTAT Food SupplyTotal national irrigated area FAO AquaStat and OECDBy production system at pixel level (irr/rfd)- Harvest Area, Yield, Production

IFPRI SPAM

Demand Elasticities (Price and Income) USDA and expert opinionSupply Elasticities Expert opinionMarketing Margins OECD and expert opinionPSE and CSEs OECD and expert opinionTariffs and Taxes GTAPExogenous Yield Growth Rates (IPRs) Historical trends and expert opinionPopulation and GDP Growth Rates SSP DatabaseClimate Shocks Simulated in DSSAT for 7 crops with 4 GCMS and RCP 8.5

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• FAO Bulk Download for 3-year average around 2005 (04-06)

• Harmonized SPAM/IMPACT commodity, and geographic definitions

• Bayesian Work Plan– Iterate with new information

Processing FAO Data

Source Data (FAO, SPAM)

Feedback to data source

Priors on values and estimation errors of

production, demand, and trade

Estimation by Cross-Entropy Method

Check results against priors and identify

potential data problems

New information to correct identified

problems

IMPACT System of Models

Water Models

GCM

RCPCrop Models

Historical Trends and Expert Opinion

Exogenous

Endogenous

Exogenous + Endogenous Yield Effects

No Immediate DSSAT Proxy for the IMPACT Crop

Biophysically Similar Crops

Mapping DSSAT Results to IMPACT

DSSAT• Maize• Wheat• Rice• Sorghum• Soybeans• Groundnuts• Potatoes

IMPACT

Wheat • Barley• Other Cereals

Maize • Sugarcane

Sorghum • Millet

Groundnuts • Pulses (chickpeas, pigeon peas, beans, cowpeas)

1 to 1 Mapping

Average of C3 Crops (all DSSAT crops excl.

maize)

• Roots and Tubers• Fruits and Vegetables • Oilseed Crops• All other crops (incl stimulants, sugar beets, and

cotton)

IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications

• IMPACT 3.0 in use through December 2014– New base 2005 database– Crop and region disaggregation– Crop allocation– New Pricing structure– Recoded and based on modular design– Data Management system– Implementation of Activity-commodity framework

IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications

• IMPACT 3.0 publications– Andersen et al (2014) “Agriculture, incomes,

and gender in Latin America by 2050”– Ignaciuk and Mason-D'Croz (2014) “Modelling

Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture”– Wiebe et al (submitted to ERL) “Climate Change

Impacts on Agriculture in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios”

– Stuch et al (submitted) “Tradeoffs between Food Security, Species Richness, and Nitrogen Depletion”

– van Soesbergen et al (submitted to REC) “Impacts of future agricultural development on biodiversity at regional scales a spatially explicit assessment of trade-offs in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi”

IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications

• IMPACT 3.1 through March 2015– Recalibration of food demand– Update of irrigated area trends– Update and of malnutrition module– Update and calibration of welfare module

IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications

• IMPACT 3.1 publications– Robinson et al (2014) “New Crop varieties and

climate change adaptation” (DP, upcoming GFS)– Rosegrant et al (2015) “Returns to investment

in reducing Postharvest food losses and increasing Ag productivity growth”

– Ignaciuk et al. (accepted at EuroChoices) Better Drip than Flood Reaping the Benefits of Efficient Irrigation

– OECD (2015) Long-Term Scenarios for Food and Agriculture– Springmann et al (submitted to Lancet) The global and regional

health impacts of future food production under climate change

IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications

• IMPACT 3.2 – Review and update of base data and IPRs– Recalibration of IMPACT baseline projections– Update of share at risk of hunger module– Implementation of endogenous land supply– Further calibration of biofuels demand– Increased substitution effects throughout– Improved climate change processing to better map available crops to

un-modelled crops– Update of PSEs, and CSEs, and inclusion of tariffs and taxes– Water model calibration and updates– Water data management modularized

IMPACT 3 updates, improvements, publications

• IMPACT 3.2 publications in the pipeline– Mason-D’Croz et al (upcoming EMS)– Sulser (upcoming) ReSAKSS Book Chapter Africa– CCAFS Regional Scenario Working Reports and

Articles– CSISA South Asia Report extending Food

Security in a World of Resource Scarcity to IMPACT 3– Latin America Climate Change Monograph– Philippines Work– Water Book

IMPACT 3 next steps

• IMPACT 3.3– Update to livestock module– Better linkages to land-use modeling– Incorporation of IPR feedback– Soft linking to fish module– Linking to GLOBE CGE model

Questions