david smith - - c-store - june 2011 … smith - www...& foresight obesity by 2015, approximately...

16/06/2011

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Global Futures& Foresight

David SmithChief executive

Global Futures and Foresight

Copyright © Global Futures and Foresight 2011

Social NetworksThe next generation


Social Networks

• Background

– World

– People

– Communities

– Work

– Consumers

– Technology

• Social Networks

Mobile - Social - Shopping


Turning the world upside down

1872 2002Global Futures

& Foresight

Innovation

48 Years

1810 1858Ezra Warner of Waterbury, Connecticut patented the first can opener


Global Trends

1. Global instability 2. Volatile worldwide

economy 3. Globalisation 2.0 4. Global warming

5. Energy, water and talent shortages

6. Bio continues to grow 7. Ageing societies

8. Unretirement 9. Work-life blend10. Feminization11. Wealth, health and

happiness12. Urbanization

11. Social awareness12. Declining trust

13. Cult of celebrity 14. Individualization15. Age of brands

16. Social applications 17. Technological

convergence18. Video everywhere

19. VOip & ipTV20. Nano technology21. Digital 24/7 lifestyles22. Cashless society

23. Mobility & convenience24. Rise of the robots


UK Trends

• Growing population, 10m more by 2030..

• Muslim population growing

• Ageing, 10m +65’s today double by 2050

• Longer lifespans

• Sluggish economy

• Persistent unemployment

• Growing numbers of wealthy

• Low carbon economy

• ‘Cloud’ - 80% CAGR to 2014.

• Broadband speeds x10 by 2020.

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Food Industry Challenges

• Urbanisation

• Food inflation

• Health & Wellness

• Diet Cycles

• Fair Trade

• Sustainability

• Packaging

• Ethics & Integrity

• Personalisation

• Authenticity

• Own label

• Value for money

• Distribution

• Transport costs

• Food Provenance

• Genetic modification

• Future of CAP

• Regulation

• Globalisation

• Big-brand C-stores

• On-the-go food

• Home delivery


C-Stores

• Diversified revenue streams:– In-store partners

– Telcos, financial, opticians, Health etc.

• Major retailers new C-store formats

• Symbol groups growing

• Category boundaries blurring

• Local sourcing

• Healthy eating

• Fresh and chilled

• Food-for-now

• Own brands

• Convenience remains paramount

• Payments technologies

• Regulation http://www.hmshopf itters.co.uk/images/photos/Shopfronts/a%20spar%20ref it%202003.jpg


Changing world


“The size of the world economy will triple

over the next four decades as emerging-

market economies wield increasing power”

January 4th 2011HSBC Holdings Plc

“World GDP to double within two decades”

April 20th 2011Standard Chartered

Global Futures& Foresightwww.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org

Global population growth

The global population is expected to rise from 7bn in 2011 to 8bn in 2020 and 9.2bn in 2050


Life expectancy climbing

• Men born in 1985 can expect to live to 91 Hall existing projections are too low.

• Upper forecast - 97.Cass Business School - 2009

• Those with access to advanced technologies can expect a healthy life beyond 120 years Institute for Alternative Futures

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And we’re living longer lives

� Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500, or possibly even 1000.

“The first person to live to 1,000 might be 60 already”

Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20th April 1963 -


Obesity

By 2015, approximately 2.3

billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese.

(The World Health Organisation)

60% of men, 50% of women and 25% of children obese by 2050.2007 Government-commissioned Foresight report


CONSUMERS Global Futures& Foresight

Drivers of the consumer shift

1. Better educated (more savvy).

2. Transparency – of pricing and operations afforded by the internet.

3. Smart technology

4. Social media penetration.

5. Demand for personalized products.

6. 24/7 society.

7. Trust in business. (or lack of)

8. The rise of Green.

9. Service differentiation

Time and money poor

Primark and Prada


Global consumer consciousness

• Consumers Want a product with an "added social benefit."

• Consumers want companies to:– Meet their needs and simultaneously

– Have a positive impact on society.

• Enlightened consumers want their:– Food to be organic

– Their coffee free trade

– Their purchases sustainable

– Everything to be green.

Source: Fast Company, September 2010 http://www.fastcompany.com/1689263/leadership-philanthropy-is-the-gateway-to-power

Source: PSB Research, March 2010 http://www.psbresearch.com/PSbBlog/post/2010/03/29/CSR-Branding-Survey-2010-Presentation.aspx

http://www.brandweek.com/bw/content_display/news-and-features/direct/e3icc3fec8640be4714853d38671ecf3f29

PURPOSEGlobal Futures

& Foresight

CHANGING WORK

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Transport in the UK by 2020

• By 2020 UK travel increases 19%. (National Express forecast)

• By 2025 congestion costs £22bn pa.

• UK flights up 50% - 90% pa by 2025. (EUROCONTROL long-term forecasts )

• Overcrowding on London's trains to get worse. (the National Audit Office)

• By 2020 aviation 10% of UK CO2 .

• 1.7m electric cars needed by 2020.

Sources: NAO, DfT, National Express

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2038268/uk-17m-electric-cars-meet-2020-climate-targets Global Futures& Foresight

Changing work patterns

• Increasingly:

– Mobile working and lifestyles

– Tele-commuting

– Remote working

– Home working

– Portfolio working

– Flexible working

• 3rd Age lifestyles

• Caring for Parents

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http://newsroom.orange.co.uk/image/997/

Where people would elect to live if universal connectivity gave them the power to choose.

Source: Orange, 2009 http://newsroom.orange.co.uk/media/uploads/connectivity%20brochure.pdf


Changing Communities


Changing communities

• 77% say they strongly belong to their neighbourhood, up 6% since 2003 Joseph Rowntree Foundation

• 4,000 churches may close by 2020. Christian Research March 2009

• 20% rural post offices closed in 8 yrs.

• 42% fewer small schools in 15 years.

• 1,000 communities - only 1 bank branch.

• 2,000 local shops closing each year.

• 5 pubs closing every day in UK.

http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/articles.aspx?page=articles&ID=198428


Community Shop

• Choice and access to local grocery shops is important.

• 50% say having a local shop within 5 minutes walk was more important to them in times of recession.

• 25% have no shop within an easy walk.

• 33% believe that access is declining.

• 80% of people have to travel outside of their local area to meet their basic shopping needs. Survey of 177 local resident and

community organisations around UK, community charity Urban Forum

http://www.acs.org.uk/en/Press_Office/details/index.cfm/type/archive/obj_id/76431944-E8C1-445D-B917DCE0CB6E5288

http://www.uknet.net/showcase/BritishFood/local_shop.jpg

http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/articles.aspx?page=independentarticle&ID=202721

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Online Communities

• Social Networks are made of individuals or organizations that are tied

by relations, such as, friendship or business interest or location

• Virtual Communities are groups

of people that primarily or initiallycommunicate or interact via the Internet, rather than face to face.

• Blended Networks is an approach

to social networking that combines offline

elements (face-to-face events) and online elements.

Image from Second LifeGlobal Futures

& Foresight

Technology


Technology and Communications

• Growth of the Internet

• Social Media

• Mobile devices

• Avatars & Virtual Worlds

• mpayments

• Voip

• ipTV

• Robots

‘For a list of all the ways technology has failed to

improve the quality of life, please press three.’Alice Kahn.



Rate of adoption of new technologies

Years until used by 25% of US population

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

4

8

12

24

60

ElectricityRadio

TelephoneTelevision

PC

Mobile Phone

Internet

Source: Kurzweil InstituteGlobal Futures

& Foresight

Speed of adoption

Morgan Stanley

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Internet access a Human Right

A United Nations report said on Friday that disconnecting people from the internet is a human

rights violation and against international law

3rd June 2011

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/06/internet-a-human-right/Global Futures

& Foresight

New era of mass communication

• Today's Internet has 1.9 bn users.

• World population is 7 bn people.

• By 2020 Internet will have 5 bn users.National Science Foundation in the U.S for one predicts

• Connecting 3 billion people

• Mostly in emerging markets– 26% of global economic activity

– Half of businesses can’t get online.

– Africa – 1 internet connection/1,000 pc’s

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642

http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm

http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times

the Other 3 Billion



SharingThe default mindset of the digital generation

... And not just media


What I like – Where I like – On any screen I like


Mobile data

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Personal Data

“Personal data is the new oil of the internet and the new currency of the digital world”Maglena KunevaEuropean Consumer Commissioner


Interfacing with technology

• Speech recognition and artificial intelligence (AI) enable a natural user interface:– Gesture

– Speech

– Look

• Humans rely on ―virtual assistants to serve as secretaries, tutors, salespeople, (TechCast)

The keyboard and mouse are dead


Engaging through technology

• Growing demand for this mode of communication.

• As organisations cut travel costs but maintain high quality interaction.

(Winter Green Research, Techcast).

• Telepresence market to be worth $4.7 billion in 2014.

Source: TMC News, August 2009 http://www.tmcnet.com/channels/telepresence/articles/62985-telepresence-market-reach-47-billion-2014-report.htm

Source: Venture Beat, March 2010 http://venturebeat.com/2010/03/04/virtual-events-keep-growing-and-even-comdex-makes-a-comeback-online/

Video Conferencing / Telepresence


Surrounded by technology

Internet of ‘things’


ONLINE CONSUMER


UK gets online in 2010

• £ 100bn internet economy (7.2% of GDP)

• 19m of 26m households connected.

• 33% access via their phone.

• 25m people use Facebook.

• Online time up 65% in 3 years.

• 62% adults bought online last year.

• John Lewis up 36% in in 2010.

• Half of travel booked online

• 38m have accessed ebay

• 7m have sold on ebay

Source: Boston Consulting Group: October 2010 “The connected kingdom

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Online Shopping is Green

“If deliveries completely replaced shopping in “distant stores” there might be a 80% to 90% reduction in carbon emissions.”

George Monbiot in his

2007 book, Heat.

http://carnbikes.files.wordpress.com/2008/07/online_shopping.jpg

http://www.triplepundit.com/2009/05/is-the-warehouse-model-the-future-for-grocery-stores/


Smartphones

• 50% of owners buy on their mobile.

• Up 20% over last 9 months

• 11% purchase on a weekly basis

• 28% find product information

• 80% using their mobiles to shop

• Comparing pricing

• GPS to find stores

Source: 10th May 2011 http://www.edigitalresearch.com/news/item/nid/457336168

mecommerce – when and where I like

Source: Verdict April 20th 2011 http://www.internetretailing.net/2011/04/mobile-set-to-change-the-face-of-the-high-street-as-shoppers-move-online-or-out-of -town/


Smartphone shopping


Google maps

Can you be found?


• The Singularity

• The Semantic Web

• Virtual Worlds

• Augmented Reality

• Personalized Marketing

• Evolving Personal Technological Ecosystem

Communications Technologies

http://www.uwplatt.edu/web/presentations/PennState/ar/pix/augmented-reality-hud.jpg


UK Online food shopping

• 25% of online time on Social Networks and Blogs up 100% in 1 year.

• Online food and grocery up 409% 2003 – 2009

• Total spend now £5.3bn

• 16-24’s online more than watching TV

• Ocado up 21% per year since 2007.

• Searches for food online on Google up 122% year on year.

• Searches via mobile devices up 274%.

• Online food and grocery to grow at 24.9% pa 2009 - 2013.

http://googleretailuk.blogspot.com/2010/08/online-grocery-shopping-recipe-for.html

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Global Futures& ForesightSOCIAL NETWORKS Global Futures

& Foresight

• Global relationships• Learning• Sourcing ideas• Co-creation• Recruitment• Building relationships• Community engagement• Networked business models

Social networks

Over 2 billion users in top 40 Social Networks

Source: The GFF Pulse expert panel survey

Doing business networks


Broadband is a powerful driver of Fragmentation

Not so much channels and brands as individuals


Social networks overtake search

In UK

Social Network visits exceeded search in May 2010.


New media channel

“We have the most powerful distribution mechanism that has been created in a generation” Mark Zuckerberg

Within five years he expects facebook to make billion and billions of

dollars from turning the tv, news, film and music industries upside down.


Benefits of social networks

• Generate new revenues

• Increase engagement and loyalty

• Reduce cost of advertising

• Gain customer Insights – ‘wisdom of crowds’

• Exploit word-of-mouth - Viral marketing

• Be a participant in the communities you serve

• Brand – Energy/Innovation

facebook growth 2004 - 2010

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Benefits of using social networks


Benefits to participants

• Improve the overall experience of engagement

• Establish contacts

• Stay up-to-date on products & services

• Obtain information and advice

• Form new special interest groups

• Distribute information without constantly emailing people (e.g., blogs and RSS feeds).

• Have fun


Attention no longer gained by interruption


It’s a fight for ATTENTION


attraction + attention = engagement = £


New logic

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Who distributes your brand?

Are you “Likeable” ?



Can’t find

local store on

Facebook

Spar food

vouchers

means

siblings can

be fed this

month

I love myspar

Have you tried

Spar brand

products?




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Selling on Facebook

• Ads

• Marketplace

• Fan Page for Business or Products

• Store App

• Storefronts

• Stores

• Connect to your store web site

• Deals and offers

• Auctions

• Integrate with Facebook’s social features (sharing, commenting, liking)


Immersed in Technology

• Virtual communities are not a replacement for the traditional.

• Virtual spaces are now a leading incubator of communities.

• 90% of users are lurkers.

• 9 % of users contribute sometimes.

• 1% of users actively participate and are responsible for all the action.

• Worldwide virtual conference and trade show market to reach $18.6 Billion 2010 – 2015 - CAGR of 56%.

http://slwtf.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/kadawe4.jpg


Imagine itIf you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead

[email protected]

� +44 7932 408901

Thank you

www.linkedin.com/in/dasmith

www.thegff.com

davidsmithgff http://www.the-power-of-sharing.com/future/

david smith - - c-store - june 2011 … smith - www...& foresight obesity by 2015, approximately...

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