david kotok's presentation

©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors

®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.

Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236

Global Interdependence Center 31st Annual Monetary & Trade Conference

April 17, 2013

David Kotok

Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

(800) 257-7013 ext. 320

[email protected]

Twitter: @CumberlandADV

mailto:[email protected]




2

Factors Adding to Reserves

Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.

"T

DW

P - 8

/17

/07

"

TS

LF

-3/1

1/0

8

PD

CF

-3/1

6/0

8

Se

ries

Bre

ak

T

AF

-12

/12

/07

Se

ries

Bre

ak

$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

$1,200

$1,350

$1,500

$1,650

$1,800

$1,950

$2,100

$2,250

$2,400

$2,550

$2,700

$2,850

$3,000

$3,150

$3,300

8-A

ug

-07

28-N

ov-0

7

9-J

an

-08

20-F

eb

-08

2-A

pr-0

8

24-S

ep

-08

5-N

ov-0

8

17-D

ec-0

8

28-J

an-0

9

11-M

ar-0

9

22-A

pr-0

9

03-J

un-0

9

15-J

ul-0

9

26-A

ug

-09

07-O

ct-0

9

18-N

ov-0

9

30-D

ec-0

9

10-F

eb

-10

24-M

ar-1

0

5-M

ay-1

0

16-J

un-1

0

28-J

ul-1

0

8-S

ep

-10

20-O

ct-1

0

1-D

ec-1

0

12-J

an-1

1

23-F

eb

-11

6-A

pr-1

1

18-M

ay-1

1

29-J

un-1

1

10-A

ug

-11

21-S

ep

-11

2-N

ov-1

1

14-D

ec-1

1

25-J

an-1

2

7-M

ar-1

2

18-A

pr-1

2

30-M

ay-1

2

11-J

ul-1

2

22-A

ug

-12

3-O

ct-1

2

14-N

ov-1

2

26-D

ec-1

2

6-F

eb

-13

20-M

ar-1

3

$ B

n

Factors Adding to Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Assets) Plus

Off-Balance TSLF from 6/27/07 to 4/10/13

Mortgage Backed Securities

US Treasuries




3

Factors Using Reserves

Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.

TS

LF

-3/1

1/0

8, 9

50

"TD

WP

- 8/1

7/0

7"

TA

F-1

2/1

2/0

7

PD

CF

-3/1

6/0

8

Se

ries B

rea

k

Se

ries B

rea

k

$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

$1,200

$1,350

$1,500

$1,650

$1,800

$1,950

$2,100

$2,250

$2,400

$2,550

$2,700

$2,850

$3,000

$3,150

$3,300

27-J

un-0

7

8-A

ug

-07

28-N

ov-0

7

9-J

an

-08

20-F

eb

-08

2-A

pr-0

8

24-S

ep

-08

5-N

ov-0

8

17-D

ec-0

8

28-J

an-0

9

11-M

ar-0

9

22-A

pr-0

9

03-J

un-0

9

15-J

ul-0

9

26-A

ug

-09

07-O

ct-0

9

18-N

ov-0

9

30-D

ec-0

9

10-F

eb

-10

24-M

ar-1

0

5-M

ay-1

0

16-J

un-1

0

28-J

ul-1

0

8-S

ep

-10

20-O

ct-1

0

1-D

ec-1

0

12-J

an-1

1

23-F

eb

-11

6-A

pr-1

1

18-M

ay-1

1

29-J

un-1

1

10-A

ug

-11

21-S

ep

-11

2-N

ov-1

1

14-D

ec-1

1

25-J

an-1

2

7-M

ar-1

2

18-A

pr-1

2

30-M

ay-1

2

11-J

ul-1

2

22-A

ug

-12

3-O

ct-1

2

14-N

ov-1

2

26-D

ec-1

2

6-F

eb

-13

20-M

ar-1

3Factors Using Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Liabilities)

from 6/27/2007 to 4/10/2013

Bill

ion

s

Currency in Circulation

Reserve Balances




4

Projected Baseline Assets

Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).

Mortgage Backed

Securities

US Treasuries




5

Projected Baseline Liabilities

Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).

Reserve Balances

Currency in Circulation




6

Everyone Is Now Looking at Jobs

• When will unemployment – most recently at

7.7% – hit 6.5%?

In looking at job formation we have assumed

0.7% annual growth in the labor force and a -

0.3% annual change in the participation rate.




7

How Many Jobs Does the Economy Create?

Assumed Quarterly %

Real GDP Growth

Estimated Number of

Jobs Created within

the Quarter

Estimated Number of

Quarters to Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Quarter

Estimated Number

of Quarters to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Quarter

Estimated

Number of

Quarters to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval

1 161 20 188 17 134 24

2 322 10 377 9 268 12

3 483 7 565 6 402 8

4 644 5 753 4 536 6

Assumed Quarterly %

Real GDP Growth

Estimated Number of

Jobs Created per

Month

Estimated Number of

Months to Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created per

Month

Estimated Number

of Months to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Month

Estimated

Number of

Months to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval

1 54 60 63 51 45 72

2 107 30 126 26 89 36

3 161 20 188 17 134 24

4 215 15 251 13 179 18

Source: Haver and Cumberland Advisors




8

GDP Growth Needed to Create Enough Jobs for Unemployment to Hit 6.5%

Source: Cumberland Advisors




9

Job Growth Needed to Hit 6.5% Unemployment

Source: Cumberland Advisors

1030507090

110130150170190210230250270290310330350370390410430450470490510530550570590610630650

4/1

/20

12

7/1

0/2

01

2

10

/18

/20

12

1/2

6/2

01

3

5/6

/20

13

8/1

4/2

01

3

11

/22

/20

13

3/2

/20

14

6/1

0/2

01

4

9/1

8/2

01

4

12

/27

/20

14

4/6

/20

15

7/1

5/2

01

5

10

/23

/20

15

1/3

1/2

01

6

5/1

0/2

01

6

8/1

8/2

01

6

11

/26

/20

16

3/6

/20

17

6/1

4/2

01

7

9/2

2/2

01

7

12

/31

/20

17

Month in Which Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.5% for Assumed Monthly Job Growth - Labor Force is Assumed to Increase at .7%

Annually and Participation Rate is Assumed to Decline .3% Annually

95% Confidence Lower Bound

95% Confidence Upper Bound

If the economy creates 210,000 jobs per month, unemployment will hit 6.5% between Feb 2014 and May 2014.




10

The Beveridge Curve: Job Vacancy Rate vs.

U-3 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5

Job

Vaca

ncy

Rate

U-3 Unemployment Rate

Dec '01- Nov '07 Dec '07- Jun '09 Jul '09- Feb '13

Nov '07

Dec '12

Jun '09

Dec '01

Dec '07

Jul '09

Feb '13

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, April 9, 2013




11

Monthly U-3 Unemployment vs. Inflation

Jan-07Feb-07 Mar-07

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07Nov-07

Dec-07Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

May-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09 Nov-09

Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10

Mar-10Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10 Oct-10Nov-10

Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11May-11 Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11 Sep-11

Oct-11Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12

Apr-12May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12Jan-13

Feb-13

Fed Target

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

-3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e (U

-3)

Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close this Gap

During Crisis(Dec. '07-June '09)

Post Crisis(Jul '09-present)

Pre-Crisis(Jan '07-Nov '07)

(6.5% U-3 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)

Fed Wants to Close This Gap

Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics March 15, 2013




12

U3 Through U6

Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc. Data through March 2013.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nt

U6 U5 U4 U3

U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions

make them believe that no work is available for them.

U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work,

but have not looked for work recently.

U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.




13

Sources of Difference Between U6 and Standard Employment Statistic – U3

Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

May

Sep

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nt

% Discouraged Workers %Marginally Attached Workers %Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Work

Estimate 3.5% above normal




14

Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics March 15, 2013

Monthly U-6 Unemployment vs. Inflation

Jan-07

Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07 Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08 Mar-08Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09Apr-09

May-09 Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09

Sep-09Oct-09 Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10Jun-10 Jul-10Aug-10

Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11Nov-11

Dec-11 Jan-12Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12May-12

Jun-12Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12Oct-12

Nov-12Dec-12

Jan-13

Implied Fed Target

Feb-13

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(U-6

)

Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close This Gap

During Crisis(Dec. '07-June '09)

Post Crisis(Jul '09-present)

Pre-Crisis(Jan '07-Nov '07)

(10.0% U-6 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)

Fed Wants to Close

This Gap




15

Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) & New Claims

Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) and New Claims as a Percent of Covered Employment

Recession Periods Jobs/Covered Employment 4 Wk Moving Ave of New Claims/Covered Emloyment

Given current size of the labor market, the economy would have to create an

average of 273K jobs per month for the ratio of Jobs/Covered Employment

to be comparable to what it was between July86-Nov90, Jan93-Mar00.

The number of jobs needed will increase as the labor force expands.




16

Total Assets of Major Central Banks

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

Feb

-06

Ap

r-06

Jun

-06

Au

g-06

Oct-0

6

De

c-06

Feb

-07

Ap

r-07

Jun

-07

Au

g-07

Oct-0

7

De

c-07

Feb

-08

Ap

r-08

Jun

-08

Au

g-08

Oct-0

8

De

c-08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-09

Oct-0

9

De

c-09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Au

g-10

Oct-1

0

De

c-10

Feb

-11

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-11

Oct-1

1

De

c-11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-12

Oct-1

2

De

c-12

Feb

-13

$ Billions

Monthly Central Bank Assets (Dollar Equivalents on Left Scale $ Billions) for US, UK,Japan, Euro Area, and Swiss National Bank

from June-06 to Dec-14

Federal Reserve Bank of England ECB Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank

2014 Cumberland

Estimates X

Estimates in

US Dollars

Total: $11.6 tr

Swiss: $1.38 tr

BOJ: 2.9 tr

ECB: 3 tr

BOE: 520 bn

Fed: 3.8 tr

Source: Credit Suisse and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.




17

European System of Central Banks

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1/1

/1

99

9

5/2

1/1

99

9

10

/8

/1

99

9

2/2

5/2

00

0

7/1

4/2

00

0

12

/1

/2

00

0

4/2

0/2

00

1

9/7

/2

00

1

1/2

5/2

00

2

6/1

4/2

00

2

11

/1

/2

00

2

3/2

1/2

00

3

8/8

/2

00

3

12

/2

6/2

00

3

5/1

4/2

00

4

10

/1

/2

00

4

2/1

8/2

00

5

7/8

/2

00

5

11

/2

5/2

00

5

4/1

4/2

00

6

9/1

/2

00

6

1/1

9/2

00

7

6/8

/2

00

7

10

/2

6/2

00

7

3/1

4/2

00

8

8/1

/2

00

8

12

/1

9/2

00

8

5/8

/2

00

9

9/2

5/2

00

9

2/1

2/2

01

0

7/2

/2

01

0

11

/1

9/2

01

0

4/8

/2

01

1

8/2

6/2

01

1

1/1

3/2

01

2

6/1

/2

01

2

10

/1

9/2

01

2

Eurosystem: Other Assets (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: General Govt DebtDenominated in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Securities of Euro AreaResid in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Oth Claim on Eur AreaCred Inst in Euro(NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Lending to Euro AreaCred Inst in Euro (NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on NoneuroResidents in Euros (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Euro Res inFgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Resin Fgn Currency (NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Gold and GoldReceivables (NSA, Mil.EUR)

European System of Central Banks Assets in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13

Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.




18

European System - Liabilities

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1/1

/1

99

9

5/1

4/1

99

9

9/2

4/1

99

9

2/4

/2

00

0

6/1

6/2

00

0

10

/2

7/2

00

0

3/9

/2

00

1

7/2

0/2

00

1

11

/3

0/2

00

1

4/1

2/2

00

2

8/2

3/2

00

2

1/3

/2

00

3

5/1

6/2

00

3

9/2

6/2

00

3

2/6

/2

00

4

6/1

8/2

00

4

10

/2

9/2

00

4

3/1

1/2

00

5

7/2

2/2

00

5

12

/2

/2

00

5

4/1

4/2

00

6

8/2

5/2

00

6

1/5

/2

00

7

5/1

8/2

00

7

9/2

8/2

00

7

2/8

/2

00

8

6/2

0/2

00

8

10

/3

1/2

00

8

3/1

3/2

00

9

7/2

4/2

00

9

12

/4

/2

00

9

4/1

6/2

01

0

8/2

7/2

01

0

1/7

/2

01

1

5/2

0/2

01

1

9/3

0/2

01

1

2/1

0/2

01

2

6/2

2/2

01

2

11

/2

/2

01

2

Eurosystem: Capital and Reserves

(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Revaluation Accounts

(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Other Liabilities (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Counterpart of

SDRs Allocated by IMF (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Noneuro Area

Resid in Fgn Currency (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area

Residents in Fgn Currency (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Non-euro Area

Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Other Euro Area

Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Debt Certificates

Issued (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Other Liab to Euro Area

Credit Inst in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Credit

Institutions in Euro(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Banknotes in

Circulation (NSA, Mil.EUR)

European System of Central Banks Liabilities in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13

Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.




19

Bank of England Assets

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000 UK: BoE Consol St: Short-term Open Mkt Operations{RPWB66A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Total Other Assets{RPWB74A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Cons St: Other Sec Acq Via Mkt Transactns{RPWB73A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Advances to the Central Govt {RPWB72A} --DISC(NSA,Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Longer-term Reverse Repo {RPWB69A}(NSA, Mil.Pounds)

Bank of England Assets in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13

Source: Bank of England.




20

Bank of England Liabilities

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

1/3

/2

00

7

4/3

/2

00

7

7/3

/2

00

7

10

/3

/2

00

7

1/3

/2

00

8

4/3

/2

00

8

7/3

/2

00

8

10

/3

/2

00

8

1/3

/2

00

9

4/3

/2

00

9

7/3

/2

00

9

10

/3

/2

00

9

1/3

/2

01

0

4/3

/2

01

0

7/3

/2

01

0

10

/3

/2

01

0

1/3

/2

01

1

4/3

/2

01

1

7/3

/2

01

1

10

/3

/2

01

1

1/3

/2

01

2

4/3

/2

01

2

7/3

/2

01

2

10

/3

/2

01

2

1/3

/2

01

3

UK: BoE Consolidated St: Foreign Currency Securities

{RPWB59A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Other Liabilities


UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Cash Ratio Deposits


UK: BoE Cons St: Open Mkt Operatns: Fine-tuning Repo


UK: BoE Consol St: Standing Facility Deposits

{RPWB57A} --DISC (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Reserve Balance Liabilities


UK: BoE Consolidated St: Notes in Circulation


Bank of England Liabilities in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 03/06/13

Source: Bank of England.




21

Swiss National Bank Assets

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

01

200

7

04

200

7

07

200

7

10

200

7

01

200

8

04

200

8

07

200

8

10

200

8

01

200

9

04

200

9

07

200

9

10

200

9

01

201

0

04

201

0

07

201

0

10

201

0

01

201

1

04

201

1

07

201

1

10

201

1

01

201

2

04

201

2

07

201

2

10

201

2

01

201

3

Swiss National Bank Assets in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13

Reserve position in the IF

Other assets

Loan to stabilisation fund

CHF securities

Clais against doestic correspondents

Doestic oney arket clais

Balances fro swap transactions against CHF

Clais fro USD repo transactions

Clais fro CHF repo transactions

onetary assistance loans

International payent instruents

Foreign currency investents

Gold holdings and clais fro gold transactions




22

Swiss National Bank Liabilities

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

01

200

7

04

200

7

07

200

7

10

200

7

01

200

8

04

200

8

07

200

8

10

200

8

01

200

9

04

200

9

07

200

9

10

200

9

01

201

0

04

201

0

07

201

0

10

201

0

01

201

1

04

201

1

07

201

1

10

201

1

01

201

2

04

201

2

07

201

2

10

201

2

01

201

3

Swiss National Bank Liabilities in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13

Provisions and equity capital

Other liabilities

Counterpart of special drawing rights allocated bythe IF

Foreign currency liabilities

Other tie liabilities

SNB debt certificates

Liabilities fro CHF repo transactions

Other sight liabilities

Sight deposits of foreign banks and institutions

Liabilities towards the Confederation

Sight deposits of doestic banks

Banknotes in circulation



0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

Jul-

97

No

v-9

7

Ma

r-98

Jul-

98

No

v-9

8

Ma

r-99

Jul-

99

No

v-9

9

Ma

r-00

Jul-

00

No

v-0

0

Ma

r-01

Jul-

01

No

v-0

1

Ma

r-02

Jul-

02

No

v-0

2

Ma

r-03

Jul-

03

No

v-0

3

Ma

r-04

Jul-

04

No

v-0

4

Ma

r-05

Jul-

05

No

v-0

5

Ma

r-06

Jul-

06

No

v-0

6

Ma

r-07

Jul-

07

No

v-0

7

Ma

r-08

Jul-

08

No

v-0

8

Ma

r-09

Jul-

09

No

v-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jul-

10

No

v-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jul-

11

No

v-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jul-

12

No

v-1

2

Y

e

n

Bank of Japan Assets from 7/ 97 to 2/13

Gold (Bil.Yen) Receivables Under Resale Agreements (Bi l.Yen) Bill s Purchased (Bil.Yen)

Government Securities in Custody (Bil.Yen) Commercial Bills Discounted (Bil.Yen) Commercial Paper (EOP, Bil.Yen)

Corporate Bonds (EOP, Bil.Yen) Pecuniary Trusts [Stocks Held as Trust Property] (Bi l.Yen) Index-Linked Exch-Traded Funds Held as Trust Prop(Bil.Yen)

Real Estate Invt Trusts (Bil.Yen) Cash (Bil.Yen) Japanese Government Securities (Bil.Yen)

Asset -B acked Securities (Bil.Yen) Loans Excluding Those to the Deposit Insurance Corp(Bil .Yen) Loans to Deposit Insurance Corporat ion (Bi l.Yen)

Foreign Currency Assets (Bil.Yen) Deposits with Agents (Bil.Yen) Cash Collat in Exchange for Govt Securities Borrowed(Bil.Yen)

Other (Bil.Yen) Total Assets (Bi l.Yen)


23

Bank of Japan Assets

Japan removes QE2 with Bills Purchased

Source: Bank of Japan.




24

Bank of Japan Liabilities

0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

Y

e

n

Bank of Japan Liabilities from 7/ 97 to 2/13

Banknotes (Bil.Yen) Current deposits (Bil.Yen) Other deposits (Bil.Yen)

Payables Under Repurchase Agreements (Bil.Yen) Bills Sold (Bil.Yen) Other (Bil.Yen)

Provisions (Bil.Yen) Deposits of the Govt(Bil.Yen) Capital (Bil.Yen)

Legal & Special Reserves (Bil.Yen) Govt Securities Borrowed (Bil.Yen) Total Liabilities & Capital Accounts (Bil.Yen)

Japan removes QE2 with Current Deposits Removed

Source: Bank of Japan.




25

All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable.

However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no

guarantee of future results.

Disclosure

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