david chiaramonti - chimica verde bionet · biobased syngas and sugars platforms ! top 30...

David Chiaramonti Bioenergy Italy, Cremona, Febbraio 2015

David Chiaramonti

RE-CORD Renewable Energy

Consortium for R&D

CREAR

Center for Renewable Energies

University of Florence


50-100 US$ Fossil 10 US$ Bio

1 barrel = 165 liters


USDOE – NREL/PNNL study

Ø  Top Value Added Chemicals from Biomass Ø Biobased Syngas and Sugars Platforms Ø  Top 30 candidates that:

1) exhibited multiple functionalities suitable for further conversion as derivatives or molecular families 2) could be produced from both lignocellulosics and starch, 3) were C1-C6 monomers, 4) were not aromatics derived from lignin 5) were not already supercommodity chemicals.


USDOE – NREL/PNNL study


FEEDSTOCK

Ø  US •  corn residue (cobs,

leaves, husk and some stalk)

Ø  Brasil •  sugar can bagasse, but

also other residues and dedicated crops

Ø  EU •  residues and wastes

(straw) + no food lignocellulosic crops

Ø  Asia •  straw/agricultural

residues as major feedstock so far


The Sugar Platform to Biobased Chemicals Ø  “From an energy and hydrogen balance standpoint, biochemical platforms are more efficient at

producing oxidized products than highly reduced molecules. Highly oxidized products such as lactic, acetic and adipic acids command significantly higher prices than ethanol or biodiesel and they are challenging to make by non-biochemical platforms.” [..] Since sugar molecules inherently contain high amounts of oxygen, it is more efficient to convert them to oxidized intermediates and aim for higher value chemicals markets.”

Ø  The Heff/C Staircase: “It is apparent that fewer steps must be ‘climbed’ (or none in the case of sugar conversion to acetic or lactic acids) along the Heff/C ‘staircase’ for sugar to be converted to intermediates that, in the short term at least, can be sold as chemical precursors rather than as fuels.”

Source: IEA-T39 Drop-in Biofuels report, 2013


There are significant revenue potentials along the entire biomass value chain. The values given are approximate business potential in US$ billions by 2020 [Source: D.King. The Future of Industrial Biorefineries. WEF. 2010]

Biomass Chain: Revenue Potential


EU competitiveness

Ø  Lots of EU R&D Ø  Demonstration / implementation in US, China, Brazil.


EU competitiveness vs Market Expansion Ø  Most expansion in

capacity expected outside the EU, in Asia and South America

Ø  Which are the main factors for that? ð Policy (ILUC-post 2020)? ð  Innovation-related

policies? ð Biomass availability/cost? ð Structure/size of farms &

Logistics? ð Financing? ð Sustainability certification? ð Demand-side management?

EU: Impact of Policy and Economic Crisis ü  NER3001: 300 M€ unused awards by UPM- Stracel, Westwave, Pyrogrot and Ajos BTL ü  Other 250-450 M€ awards at risk ü  UPM statement: [..] uncertainty in the regulatory

outlook for advanced biofuels [..]

…not only biofuels…also bioproducts going the same way..


Chemicals – Vision 2030 (Source: ATKearney)

3Chemical Industry Vision 2030: A European Perspective

The key trend in the global economy is Asian growth catalyzed by the ever-faster integration of regional economies and societies across the globe. More than half of the world’s population (workforce and consumers)—nearly ! billion people—live in Asia. In addition, more people around the world are moving into large cities, favored for accumulating wealth and consuming; and nowhere is urbanization faster than in Asia, especially in China.

Rising consumer purchasing power will translate into more chemicals people can a"ord to buy, which drives the demand for chemicals across Asia. Thus, as the global economy gravitates eastward, at least half of the top #$ chemical companies in the world will be Asian or Middle Eastern (see figure #).

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Note: NAFTA is North American Free Trade Agreement.! !&*" assumed exchange rate is: +!.$&/,.' Assumes the following growth rates '%!%-$%: Asia "%, Europe !%, NAFTA !.'%, Rest of world $%Sources: European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC), Chemical Week, Verband Chemische Industrie, Chemical & Engineering News, annual reports; A.T. Kearney analysis

Sales(! billion; "#$# is calculated at "#%# prices and exchange rates)

Top chemicals players(sales ! billion, market share in %)

Number of playersby region

Figure ! The core of the chemical industry is shifting to Asia, and by !"#" at leasthalf of the top $" chemical companies will be Asian or Middle Eastern

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' BASF !$ '.*%

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4Chemical Industry Vision 2030: A European Perspective

From a manufacturing perspective, longevity in the chemical industry means sudden capacity shifts are unlikely. Chemicals are largely used for basic needs, such as construction, clothing, and agriculture. Specialty products such as batteries and nanotech will dramatically change specific value chains but will not change the overall demand picture because the combined volumes are small compared to increased general consumption in Asia.

Further, the chemicals market will not be stirred by revolutionary discoveries, such as the emergence of new molecule classes. Rather, progress is expected in specialty chemicals and application niches with technological leaps in customer industries, such as biotech and fuel cells.

Production in Europe is expected to grow moderately with only consumer chemicals in marginally higher demand (see figure !). This slow growth implies a significant reduction in the necessary workforce because of continued productivity gains that outpace volume growth. At the same time, chemical companies in Europe need to build up capabilities to deal with the challenges of a multipolar chemical market.

Competitive Environment !"#"By !"#", three forces will drive the global competitive environment: changes in competition, value networks moving east, and increasing economic volatility. In fact, these factors are already exerting a force on the industry.

Note: EU!" refers to the !" member states of the European Union.# Ruler strategy production volume CAGR !$$$-#$ extrapolated to !$%$; $.&% is expected ruler strategy CAGR for EU!" !$#$-!$%$.Value and weighting re'lect !$#$ prices.! Petrochemicals and specialty chemicals are included in the category “organic chemicals.” Sources: European Chemical Industry Council (CEFIC); A.T. Kearney analysis

Production volumes(! billion, "#$# prices)

Figure ! Chemicals production in Europe is expected to grow moderately, with slightly higher demand for consumer chemicals

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Bioproducts fits into a wider scenario ..


Commercialising Bioproducts = Bring Innovation to Market

Demand as barrier to Innovation – Policy measures

[Source: J.Elder. Review of Policy Measures to Stimulate Private Demand for Innovation. Concepts and Effects. NESTA Working Paper N0. 13/13. 2013]


Impact of policies on bio products market Ø  Example: plastic/biodegradable bags Ø  European Union’s decided to reduce overall consumption of thin plastic bags in

the region by about 80% by 2019, compared to 2010 consumption levels. Ø  The biodegradable plastics market in Europe is forecast to witness a robust

CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of around 12% during 2014-19


Thanks for your attention

David Chiaramonti RE-CORD, Renewable Energy COnsortium for R&D

CREAR, Research Center for Renewable Energy, University of Florence [email protected] - [email protected]

david chiaramonti - chimica verde bionet · biobased syngas and sugars platforms ! top 30...

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