date: 10 june, 2020 · german april trade balance 3.2b, 10.0b forecast, 12.8b previous. gemran...

9
Date: 10 June, 2020

Upload: others

Post on 31-Jul-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

Date: 10 June, 2020

Page 2: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 2Retail Research

DOMESTIC INDICES

Close Points % Change

SENSEX 33957 -414 -1.20

NIFTY 10047 -121 -1.19

MIDCAP 12558 -26 -0.21

SMALL CAP 11846 -119 -1.00

SECTORAL INDICES

Close Points % Change

Healthcare 16200 185 1.16

REALTY 1570 5 0.30

IT 14747 -72 -0.48

POWER 1562 -8 -0.48

AUTO 14872 -89 -0.59

CG 12876 -77 -0.59

TECK 7555 -84 -1.10

METAL 7304 -91 -1.22

Finance 4732 -85 -1.77

CD 20618 -405 -1.93

OIL & GAS 12633 -252 -1.96

BANKEX 23679 -557 -2.30

BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS

GAINERS % LOSERS %

BHEL 9.64 IDEA -15.93

RBLBANK 6.00 RELAXO -8.13

ADANIGREEN 4.98 ABFRL -5.37

ADANITRANS 4.81 ABCAPITAL -5.12

GMRINFRA 4.71 IDBI -4.96

ADVANCE/DECLINES

BSE %

ADVANCES 1111 40

DECLINES 1470 53

UNCHANGED 168 6

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Rs Cr 09/06/20 08/06/20 June Total

FII 491 813 16691(prov.)

MF -733 -1238 -2604(prov.)

Markets could open higher despite lower Dow and a flatNasdaq but may run into correction …

Indian markets could open higher today following largelypositive Asian markets and mixed US markets on Monday.

The Dow closed down 300 points Tuesday, while the NasdaqComposite booked a fresh record close after the technology-laden benchmark briefly traded above a milestone 10,000 ongrowing economic optimism. However gains in technology andexpectations for the Federal Reserve to reiterate itsaccommodative stance on monetary policy kept losses in thebroader market in check. The Fed is not expected to take anyaction on rates or policy at its meeting. How much the Fed willreveal about its future intentions and what it says about its viewof the economy could be the keys.

The optimism of small companies in the U.S. economy rose 4.5points last month to 94.4, the National Federation ofIndependent Business said Tuesday. The increase was twice aslarge as Wall Street had forecast. Meanwhile, nearly 10 millionpeople lost their jobs in April after a record 14.6 million werethrown out of work in March, Tuesday data from the LaborDepartment shows, underscoring the widespread devastationto the U.S. labor market from the coronavirus.

The U.S. presidential election is re-emerging as a potential riskto markets after a shift in polls that has seen President DonaldTrump lose ground to Democrat Joe Biden amid criticism overhis handling of the coronavirus pandemic as well as the protestssparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody. ADemocratic victory could threaten policies championed byTrump and generally favored by Wall Street, including lowercorporate tax rates and fewer regulations.

China’s inflation data for May missed expectations this morning.Its producer price index for May fell 3.7% from a year earlier vs3.3% expected. Its consumer price index rose 2.4% year-on-yearin May, less than a 2.7% increase estimated.

Asian equities slipped on Wednesday after most U.S. stockspared gains made during their recent rally. Investors adopted amore cautious stance as attention turned to the U.S. FederalReserve, which wraps up its two-day meeting later onWednesday.

Indian Benchmark indices paused their winning streak andended close to day's low level on June 09 on the back ofwidespread profit taking. At close, the Nifty was down 120.80points or 1.19% at 10046.70.

Technically the Nifty has failed to sustain at the intra day highsfor the second consecutive day. 9889-9944 band is the nextsupport while 10177 is the resistance. However one needs towatch the Midcap space which is still seeing some rotationalbuying.

Page 3: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 3Retail Research

GLOBAL INDICES

EXCHANGE RATES

Value % Change

USD/INR 75.5 0.20

EURO/USD 1.134 0.00

USD/GBP 1.273 -0.01

USD/JPY 107.7 0.02

COMMODITIES

Value %

Gold ($ / Oz) 1724.1 0.12

Silver ($ / Oz) 17.9 0.31

Crude Oil Futures 38.1 -2.05

Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 40.5 -1.60

BOND YIELD

Value % Chg bps

IND10 Yr Bond Yield 5.7 -3

ADR

Value $ %

Dr Reddys Labs 54.65 4.47

HDFC Bank 43.87 -4.28

ICICI Bank 9.23 -4.75

Tata Motors 7.32 -6.15

Wipro 3.32 -4.32

Vedanta Ltd 5.52 -1.78

INFOSYS 9.33 -2.41

Close Points % Chg

DOW JONES 27272 -300.14 -1.09

S & P 500 3207 -25.21 -0.78

NASDAQ 9954 29.01 0.29

FTSE 6336 -136.87 -2.11

CAC 5095 -80.41 -1.55

DAX 12618 -201.60 -1.57

NIKKEI 225 23089 -2.53 -0.01

SHANGHAI COMP. 2937 -18.83 -0.64

HANG SENG 25075 17.78 0.07

BOVESPA 96747 -898.12 -0.92

Irdai withdraws long-term third-party motor insurance for 3, 5years from Aug 1The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irdai) onTuesday withdrew the long-term motor third-party insurancepackage for three years and five years for four-wheelers andtwo-wheelers, with effect from August 1, 2020. According toIrdai, distribution of long-term third party policies is challengingas it is unaffordable for vehicle owners.

Minda Corp''s Germany-based subsidiary files for insolvencyMinda Corporation on Tuesday said its Germany-basedsubsidiary has filed for insolvency after the company decidedagainst making further investments in it. Minda had acquiredthe firm, a manufacturer of kinematic and non-kinematic plasticcomponents for the automotive industry, in 2007. This move, isexpected to enhance company’s Ebidta by 2% and ROCE by 5%.

Promoters to dilute 10-15% stake in Adani Green EnergyAdani Green is in talks with buyers to dilute 10-15% stake in thecompany. Company aims to win 10GW of projects in 6-8months.

Wipro extends collaboration with Amazon Web Services forDevOpsWipro has extended its strategic relationship with Amazon WebServices (AWS) to include capabilities in the area of DevOps. Asa part of this alliance, both companies would collaborate to helpglobal organizations leverage the benefits of automation,effective monitoring and rapid deployment using DevOps

Kapur family withdraws suit against Yes Bank in Bombay highcourtMadhu Kapur and other family members have withdrawn theirpetition from the Bombay high court after having fought it since2013. She and other plaintiffs had sought relief in the suit withrespect to participation in the management and promoterclassification issues. On May 30, the plaintiffs have consentedreclassify their shareholding in the Bank as public shareholders.

TeamLease Services Q4 and FY20 results updateRevenues for the quarter grew 14% yoy at Rs 1330cr. Margindipped 70bps to 1.5%. PBT was down by 17% at Rs 22.4cr. Dueto higher tax expenses, the company reported net loss of Rs29.4cr. Company provided for Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT)credit of Rs 49.6 crores in the quarter on account of thecompany adopting and moving to the new tax regime.

Total employee/ trainee headcount increased by ~4000 on yoybasis and as on March 31, 2020 stood at ~220,000 compared to~216,000 on March 31, 2019.

For FY20, revenues increased 17% at Rs 5201cr. EBITDA margindeclined 30bps to 1.8%. PBT for the year dipped 14% at Rs83cr.

Page 4: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 4Retail Research

Hero MotoCorp Q4FY20 result updateStandalone revenue from operations for the quarter stood at Rs 6,238 crore, falling 21 percent year-on-year, impactedby lower sales volumes, which declined 25 percent year-on-year to 13.35 lakh units. EBITDA plunged 38.3 percent to Rs660 crore and margin dipped 300 bps to 10.6 percent. PAT dipped by 15% to Rs 621 crore. The significant fall in tax cost(down 91.5 percent YoY) helped limit the decline in bottomline.

Revenue from operations in FY20 declined 14.3 percent to Rs 28,836 crore compared to the previous year. Profit grew7.3 percent to Rs 3,633 crore. The company announced a final dividend of Rs 25 per share for FY20.

PSP Projects Q4FY20 result updatePSP Projects witnessed a standalone net profit of Rs 34.26cr during March 2020 (Q4FY20) period, slightly highercompared to Rs 30.12cr in the corresponding period of the previous year. Q4 PAT, however, contracted from Rs 36.74crin the preceding quarter.

Standalone revenue from operations, on the other hand, soared to Rs 456.39cr in Q4FY20 against revenue of Rs338.25cr of Q4FY19 and Rs 423.06cr of Q3FY20. For FY20, the company's standalone net profit and revenue stood at Rs129.26cr and Rs 1,499.25cr respectively.

Karnataka Bank on Covid-19 impactDemand for credit may be muted initially thus affecting the top line of the Bank’s profitability which has already beenfactored into while drawing the business plan for the current financial year. Additional provision of 10% to bemaintained in respect of loan assets where asset classification benefits is taken is already frontloaded in the Marchquarter results

Important news/developments to influence markets

Japan’s Average cash earnings declined by 0.6% while the overall wage income of employee declined by 0.6%.

German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous.

Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous.

Eurozone economy contracted by 3.6% in the first quarter, which was better than the expected decline of 3.8%.

Eurozone’s employment change of 0.4% was better than the 0.3% that analysts were expecting.

UK’s Retail sales in May continued to drop but showed slight improvement compared to sales in April. Total retailsales dropped 5.9 per cent in May, compared to a 1.9 per cent decline in the same month of the previous year.

US small business optimism index rose to 94.4 in May from 90.9 in April.

Redbook growth plunged through mid-April as lockdown orders set in. This prompted the month average to plungeto -0.3% from 6.8% in March and 5.2% in February.

U.S. job openings plummeted in April to the lowest since 2014 and separations remained elevated as the pandemicripped through the labor market with devastating speed. The number of available positions dropped to 5.05 millionfrom a revised 6.01 million in March.

U.S. wholesale inventories rebounded less than initially estimated in April. Inventories rose 0.3% in April instead ofincreasing 0.4% as reported last month.

Page 5: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 5Retail Research

Daily View on Nifty

Nifty Daily Timeframe Nifty Hourly Timeframe

Technical Observations:

• Nifty hit a high at 10291 and witnessed a sell off in yesterday’s trade

• Nifty fell 245 odd points from day’s high and closed with a loss 121 points

• Nifty closed around the crucial support of 5 days EMA placed at 10037

• Dow Futures are trading up more than 200 points and Asian Markets are also trading strong this morning

• SGX Nifty is suggesting gap up opening of more than 90 points

• A level of 10000 is likely to act as support for the day

• Resistance would remain at 10120, 10218 and 10291 for the day

• Pharma and FMCG stock are placed strong on the charts and are likely to outperform

• Traders should remain long unless Nifty violates 10000 support

Nifty LTP 2-Day View Reversal level 7-Day View Reversal level

10046 Bullish Move below 10000Hold Long With SL

9889Move below 9944

10300 Target 10550

Page 6: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 6Retail Research

DATA & EVENTS

OPEN SHORT-TERM TRADING CALLS

NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY TEAM ARE ON REAL TIME BASIS. A TRADING RECOMMENDATION SHOULD BECONSIDERED CLOSED OR SQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET IS TOUCHED IN INTRADAY TRADING. DO NOT WAIT FORTARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSE THE POSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FOR TIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROMRECOMMENDATIONS.

NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME COST SL TARGET DURATION

1 9-JUN-20 SELL VOLTAS JUNE FUT 551.40-558 562 535 1-5 DAYS

2 3-JUN-20 BUY HINDUSTAN UNILEVER 2130-2069 2038 2260 7 DAYS

3 5-JUN-20 BUY TATA STEEL 327-338 320 358 1-7 DAYS

4 5-JUN-20 BUY CENTURY PLY 109-110.65 106.8 120 1-3 DAYS

5 5-JUN-20 BUY COAL INDIA 145-139.50 138 155 7 DAYS

6 8-JUN-20 BUY ICICI PRU LIFE 398.45-385 380.5 422 7 DAYS

7 8-JUN-20 BUY RITES 240-247.90 237 268/275 7 DAYS

8 8-JUN-20 BUY RAIN INDUSTRIES 75-77.05 73.8 84 1-3 DAYS

9 9-JUN-20 BUY DREDGING CORP 236-243.50 233.5 260 2-7 DAYS

10 9-JUN-20 BUY AURO PHARMA 760-773 745 815 1-7 DAYS

11 9-JUN-20 BUY SPARC 147.35-142 139 157 7 DAYS

NO.

RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME COST SLTARGET

1 TARGET

2TARGET

3VALID TILL CMP

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 1

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 2

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 3

1 28-MAY-20 BUY ICICI PRU LIFE* 369.5 334 406 442 - 28-AUG-20 393 - 13 -

2 29-MAY-20 BUY MINDA INDUSTRIES 290.6 266 322 349 - 29-AUG-20 292 10 20 -

3 29-MAY-20 BUY HINDUSTAN ZINC 170 163 183 195 200 29-AUG-20 173 6 13 15

4 1-JUN-20 BUY ADANI ENTERPRISE 152.7 142.5 170 - - 1-SEP-20 152 12 - -

5 1-JUN-20 BUY AVANTI FEEDS* 442 403 481 520 575 1-DEC-20 471 - 11 22

6 8-JUN-20 BUY POLY CAB 773.2 694 859 915 - 8-SEP-20 774 11 18

7 8-JUN-20 BUY PNC INFRA* 121.8 106 130 142 - 8-SEP-20 123 - 16

8 9-JUN-20 BUY NATCO PHARMA 629.7 590 675 713 754 9-SEP-20 633 7 13 19

OPEN CASH POSITIONAL CALLS

*= 1ST TARGET ACHIEVED

Page 7: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 7Retail Research

DATA & EVENTS

*= 1ST TARGET ACHIEVED

OPEN DERIVATIVE POSITIONAL CALLS

NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME COST SLTARGET

1 TARGET

2TARGET

3VALID TILL CMP

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 1

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 2

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 3

1 1-JUN-20 BUY SRF JUNE FUT* 3555 3380 3740 3920 -TILL 25TH

JUNE3640 - 8 -

2 2-JUN-20 BUY ICICI BANK JULY FUT* 345 318 370 380 -TILL 30TH

JULY348 - 9 -

3 8-JUN-20 SELLMANAPPURAM

FINANCE JUN FUT139 149 128 - -

TILL 25TH JUNE

139 8 -

4 9-JUN-20 BUYDR REDDY LAB JUNE

FUT4056 3790 4325 4499

TILL 25TH JUNE

4111 5 9 -

OPEN E-MARGIN POSITIONAL CALLS

NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME COST SLTARGET

1 TARGET

2TARGET

3VALID TILL CMP

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 1

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 2

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 3

1 2-JUN-20 BUY MINDTREE 908 840 990 1040 - 2-SEP-20 917 8 13 -

OPEN E-MARGIN POSITIONAL CALLS

NO. RECO DT. RECO COMPANY NAME COST SLTARGET

1 TARGET

2TARGET

3VALID TILL CMP

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 1

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 2

% UPSIDE FROM

CMP FOR TARGET 3

1 9-JUN-20

BUY CADILA JUNE FUT 367.5 352 405 - -TILL 25TH

JUNE

359 13 - -

SELL CIPLA JUNE FUT 650 685 600 - - 641 7 - -

Page 8: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 8Retail Research

DATA & EVENTS

QUARTERLY RESULTS ANNOUNCED

COMPANY Q4FY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Remarks

Sales (Rs Cr)

NP (Rs Cr)

Sales NP Sales NP

Hero Motocorp 6238 621 -21 -15 -11 -30As per

Estimates

Team Lease Services 1330 -29 14 PL -2 PLAs Per

Estimates

PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

Page 9: Date: 10 June, 2020 · German April Trade Balance 3.2B, 10.0B forecast, 12.8B previous. Gemran April Current Account Balance n.s.a 7.7B, 24.4B previous. Eurozone economy contracted

The Daily Viewpoint

Page 9Retail Research

Disclaimer:This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. Theinformation and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith fromsources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty,express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to changewithout notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securitiesmentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation ofan offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any personor entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication,reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration orlicensing requirement within such jurisdiction.If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored andbrought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes withoutprior written approval of HSL.Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have anadverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values ofwhich are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from,or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buyor sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities andearn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein oract as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to anyrecommendation and other related information and opinions.HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustaineddue to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices ofshares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities andfinancial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may dealin other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.

HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have beenmandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period precedingtwelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance,investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in thenormal course of business.HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party inconnection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict ofinterest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchantbanking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with andreach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as anofficer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company orthird party in connection with the Research Report.

HDFC securities Limited, SEBI Registration No.: INZ000186937 (NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX) |NSE Trading Member Code: 11094 | BSEClearing Number: 393 | MSEI Trading Member Code: 30000 | MCX Member Code: 56015 | IN-DP-372-2018 (CDSL, NSDL) | CDSL DP ID:12086700 | NSDL DP ID: IN304279 | AMFI Reg No. ARN -13549 | PFRDA Reg. No - POP 11092018 | IRDA Corporate Agent LicenceNo.CA0062 | Research Analyst Reg. No. INH000002475 | Investment Adviser: INA000011538 | CIN-U67120MH2000PLC152193

Registered Address: I Think Techno Campus, Building, B, Alpha, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai -400 042. Tel -022 30753400. Compliance Officer: Ms. Binkle R Oza. Ph: 022-3045 3600, Email: [email protected].

Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.