Database, data quality and construction method

Natalya Tourdyeva (CEFIR)

Overview

Database for the SUST-RUS• Database construction task

• Source data

• Important decisions: industries and the base year

• Estimation of the country-level base year input-output table with desired level of disaggregation

• Estimate regional IOs on the basis of the country-level IO table.

Database for the SUST-RUS

A complete dataset for a CGE model consists of several parts:

• massive of statistical data, representing a snapshot of the economy for a base year, usually statistical data is organized in the form of a social accounting matrix

• Another part of the dataset consists of elasticities of substitution and transformation for CES and CET functions, as well as of other functional parameters, that cannot be calibrated form the benchmark year data.

Source data

IO tables in our disposal:1995 Russian symmetric input-output table (SIOT).System of Russian input-output tables for 2003. The make and the use table (in consumer prices) for year 2006

Russian interregional trade database. Russian regional good exports1999 till 2006 a list of 245 commodity groups

Industrial classification

Trade-off between details and data constraints.

• Availability of regional output data

• Aggregation of the latest (2004-2006) Russian use and make matrices.

Different statistical classifications (2004-2006) vs (1995-2003)

Base year

The choice of the base year is closely linked to the choice of the industrial structure.

Tradeoff: availability of data vs. choice of the most recent year.

The richest in terms of the available regional data is 2006

Estimation of the 2006 country IO

Estimate Russian country symmetric input-output table (SIOT) for 2003 in NACE format.

Estimate Russian SIOT for 2006 in disaggregated NACE classification.

Estimation of the Russian SIOT for 2003

Estimation of the Russian SIOT for 2006

Regional SIOT estimation

Assumptions• IO coefficients are the same as in the

country SIOT

• Final consumption is structured as in the country IO and scaled to regional intermediate consumption

• Structure of regional imports from the ROW is the same as in the country SIOT

Regional SIOT estimation

Result: • Regional SIOT sum up to the country one.

Thus there is balance on the country level

• BUT there should be product balances in each region: account for interregional trade.

Contradiction in the data:• There is a mismatch between regional

production, IO coefficients and regional trade data.