data versus hunch. beyond meets hyper island. turning data into creative value
DESCRIPTION
Going it alone will get you there faster but going together will always take you further. This has never been truer than when thinking about the relationship between data and creativity. Get the balance right and you will always develop stronger ideas. Falling out is all part of the fun as long as you kiss and make up. Our Charlie Lyons and Nils Mork-Ulnes delivered this slide set as part of a Beyond / Hyper Island seminar on data and creativity.TRANSCRIPT
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Thinking big while thinking real..
A Beyond presentation by Charlie Lyons and Nils Mork-Ulnes
July 2013
data vs hunch
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Works between analysts and creatives. Generally a bit crazy....probably as a result of working with the afore mentioned teams....
who the hellare we? Let’s introduce ourselves !
King of Data!Leads the analytics team into a bright future. If you ever need a restaurant tip he is your man....
Charlie LyonsDirector
Nils Mork-UlnesHead of Analytics
Creative Junkie
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WHAT IS BEYOND?How did we form, what do we do and who do we work with?
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CREDENTIALS?
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INSIGHT
TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL
LESS FINANCIAL RISK, MORE CREATIVE PRECISION, AWESOME RESULTS
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WE drive brand engagement through the
CREATIVEapplication of content & technology
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LONDON
BAY AREA NEW YORK
Our clients drive the social web... and harness it
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WHAT IS IT REALLY LIKE OUT THERE?The truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth....
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RELATIONSHIPS
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want it?you get
f$cked..
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me sexy!make
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want it?youyeah!
hell
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THE LAY OF THE LAND....
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IT USED TO BE REALLY
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20 years agoHR Consultants
brand
HR
pr
finance
operations
strategy
marketing
learning
r&D
product development
sales
PR
Accountants
Management Consultants
Branding Agencies
Ad Agencies
Corporate Training Consultants
Sales Consultants
Product design & innovation agencies
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and then the web came along
brand
HR
pr
finance
operations
strategy
marketing
learning
r&D
product development
sales
Brand websiteOnline ads
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and got useful for more things
brand
HR
pr
finance
operations
strategy
marketing
learning
r&D
product development
sales
Brand websiteOnline ads
Social
E-commerceSEM
“Fun” apps
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and a few more things
brand
HR
pr
finance
operations
strategy
marketing
learning
r&D
product development
salesSocial analytics
Digital supply chains
Digital transformation / change management
E-Recruiting
E-Learning
Co-creation
Crowdsourcing
“Serious” apps
Digital product design & testing
Digital service design
Brand websiteOnline ads
Social
E-commerceSEM
“Fun” apps
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everybody’s getting into each others’ businessJust a few examples...
branding
PRmanagement
consultancies
data analytics
Design
social
advertising
digital
Accenturebuying Fjord
W+Kaces social with Old Spice
WCGbuying predictive analytics firm
WPPbuying AKQA
PR + data analytics
digitalADVertising +
ADVertising+social
+managementconsultancies Design
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ad spend has followed eyeballs...
6%
14%
42%
26%
12%
23%
10%
43%
22%
3%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Print Radio TV Internet Mobile
% o
f Tot
al M
edia
Con
sum
ptio
n Ti
me
or A
dver
tisin
g Sp
endi
ng
Time Spent Ad Spend
% of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2012
~$20B+Opportunity
in USA
Internet Ad = $37B*
Mobile Ad = $4B*
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the truth
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From scarcity to abundance of data
“WE HAVE PRODUCED MORE DATA IN THE LAST TWO YEARS THAN IN ALL OF HISTORY PRIOR TO THAT” MCKINSEY & CO. 2012
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THE VALUE OF DATA HAS SHIFTED FROM CREATING IT TO INTERPRETING IT AND BEING THE FIRST TO TAKE ACTION.
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DATA DESCRIBES THINGS AS THEY ARE...
WHICH ISN’T ALWAYS A NEAT STORY
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explanationan
our limited ability to look atNarrative Fallacies -
into them..
sequences of facts without weaving
—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan
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Where this propensity can go wrong is when it
increases our impression of understanding.
—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan
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ALGORITHMS TEND TO PREDICT NATURE BETTER THAN HUMAN EXPERTS....
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OF 200 COMPARISONS OF CLINICAL AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS
ABOUT 60% HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ACCURACY
FOR ALGORITHMS OVER HUMAN EXPERTS
- THINKING FAST AND SLOW
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THE PROBLEM WITH
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when psychology drives behaviour, algorithms fail
price = what the market wants to pay book value = what accountants think it’s worth
market price to book value - s&p 500 - 1979-2011
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big data is no panacea
With more data, you get more spurious correlations, more false positives, and erroneous answers.
if the quantity of information is increasing by 2.5 quintillion bytes per day, the amount of useful information almost certainly isn't.
Most of it is just noise, and the noise is increasing faster than the signal.
NATE SILVER, AUTHOR OF THE NOISE AND THE SIGNAL
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HOW DO YOU PLAY IN A WORLD THAT IS
WITH DATA BUT RUNBY EMOTIONS?
BECOMING OBSESSED
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KNOW THE LIMITS AND STRENGTHSSTRENGTHS OF OPINION AND EMPIRICAL PROOF...
...AND ITERATE TO A SOLUTION THROUGH A DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO
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PROTECT YOUR CREATIVE IDEAS
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WHAT ARE CLIENTS
LIKE?REALLY
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CONFUSED!
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M.O.A.S
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MOON.ON.A.STICK
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MOAS?
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USE DATA HERE
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REDUXYOURBRIEFS
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WHITE SPACES
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Turning Unstructured data into customer insights
who influences
them?
where Do they spend their
time?
What drives consideration?
What drives brand
Preference & emotional
connections?
?
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are there White space
opportunities for content?
what do they search for?
what are they talking about?
what content will they
share?
Using social data for customer-centric digital strategies
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Most conversations aren’t about your brand
0.5%0.5%
99%
You and your competitors
Their needs Brand A Brand B
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Zeitgeist/Cultural Tensions
Brand Proposition Ideas that connect
Use data to Locate common groundData (search, social) can help you to create a strategy for how the brand proposition
best connects with stakeholders, in ways that make it relevant to them.
The common ground serves as the blueprint for how the brand can tell its story in a relevant way -
based on data-led insights from search and social
patterns (conversations/queries). Provides creative
insight and ensures the plan matches the market
wants/needs.
(HUNCH) (Data)
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How do you interchange between data and creativity?
DATA VS HUNCH?
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HOW DO YOU PLAY IN A WORLD THAT IS
WITH DATA BUT RUNBY EMOTIONS?
BECOMING OBSESSED
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i’m gonnasend to me
to outta space...
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this data is powerful
man,
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so creativeI am
right now!
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blowing mythis is
mind!!
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shiitttt!!!
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Phew......
I love my data!forgot where I was!I was having so much fun i
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BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER..Short recap on some of these fabulous thoughts...
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IS YOUR FRIEND..
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D ata Hunch
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badass!
i’m ahunchy
data
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THANK YOUtimefor your
THANK YOUtimefor your
Nils Mork-UlnesHead of Analytics
+44 (0)2079 086556+44 (0)7713 [email protected]
Charlie LyonsDirector
+44 (0)2079 086565+44(0) 7540 [email protected]