data to action · 2019-12-16 · data to action october 15, 2015. m. akhtar khan, ph.d. cdss -...
TRANSCRIPT
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DATA TO ACTION
October 15, 2015
M. Akhtar Khan, Ph.D.CDSS - Research Services Branch Chief
Aynalem Adugna, Ph.D.CDSS - Federal Data Reporting and Analysis Bureau
Chief
Arthur LomboyMonterey County Department of Social Services
Data Development Manager
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County of Monterey/CDSS 2
Data to Action…
Reflections on CDSS Research Context
Akhtar Khan
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Preliminary - not for reproduction 3
I - The Context for Our Research
• Socio-economic indicators at the county level rarely explain differences in CalFresh access.
• Explanations for county-level variation exist at below-county levels – neighborhoods and communities.
• Need local level data and tools to understand neighborhood-and community level effects.
• Geocoding analytics offer excellent tools to explore local community level dynamics.
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4
The Search for AnswersWhat sub-county-level geographies should be used to identify areas of low participation?
Counties’ unemployment rates and poverty levels are not good predictors of CalFresh access.
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% in Poverty, 2011
County % in Poverty vs. % Receiving CalFresh (2011)
Source: Poverty rates, American Community Survey; percent receiving CalFresh, CDSS
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The Search for Answers (continued)
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Unemployment Rate, 2011
County % Unemployed vs. % Receiving CalFresh (2011)
Source: Unemployment rates, EDD; percent receiving CalFresh, CDSS
The distribution of proportions of non-English speakers points to:
o Language as an important factor
o The possible role of immigration status
o The need to develop a program access measure that takes citizenship status into account
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II - Measuring Program Access
Questions about the PAI
• Why is participation so low in California?
• How does program access vary among counties?
• Does variation among counties relate to local unemployment rates, local poverty rates, a rural-urban divide, etc.?
• Is the PAI the best way to measure program access?
o In particular, does the PAI’s denominator accurately capture the eligible population? (income below 125% of FPL – FDPIR – SSI)
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𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷= 𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪 𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪 −𝑫𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪 𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪 𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷 𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑰𝑰𝑷𝑷𝑰𝑰𝑷𝑷𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑰𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪 𝒘𝒘𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪<𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝑷𝑷𝒐𝒐𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝒐𝒐 −
∗𝑪𝑪𝑫𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑭𝑭 𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪 −𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑺𝑷𝑷 𝑭𝑭𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑪𝑪
FDPIR: Food Distribution Program on Indian Reservations*Wyoming and Utah had a lower participation rate than CaliforniaSource: FNS, Calculating the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Program Access Index: A Step-by-Step Guide, January 2015
Measuring Program Access
By this measure:
California’s PAI was 3rd lowest in the country at 53.2% in 2013*
4.1 million eligible Californians were not receiving CalFresh in 2013
The Program Access Index (PAI): USDA/Food and Nutrition Service (FNS)
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What is geocoding?
Geocoding is a process of converting tabular data into spatial data by assigning geographic coordinates
Why geocode?
To establish the geographic location(s) of a record (single address) or records (multiple addresses) in a table.
It is also called address-matching.
Similar to putting pins on a paper map Multiple data elements can be displayed or analyzed
together
Geocoding Basics
County of Monterey/CDSS 8
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Geocoding helps counties gain a holistic view of the environments Surrounding each CalFresh recipient address
Neighborhood organizations
Environmental characteristics
Demographic characteristics
Languages spoken
County outreach activities
Neighborhood characteristics
CalFresh recipient household
Image source: http://www.dreamstime.com
Social/environmental activism
County poverty levelof tracts
Service delivery
County of Monterey/CDSS 9
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Over two hundred tract-level data elements are linked to each dot.
Example:
Total tract population. % Below poverty level. % Non-native. Number of Hispanics. Number of families with
children under 18. Number of Female-
headed households. % Speaking languages
other than English. EBT access.
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County of Monterey/CDSS 11
Overarching Goal…
GeocodingFor Targeted Outreach
A. Adugna
III – Identify True-hot-spots
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Geocoding Analytics: CalFresh Outreach in a Mid-sized County
County of Monterey/CDSS 12
1.To inform targeted outreach strategies by providing outreach staff with spatial analyses of CalFresh participation, indicating where potential non-participating eligibles reside
2.To improve future spatial analyses with feedback and data from outreach staff to advance understanding of differences in, and barriers to, CalFresh access
Objectives
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13,240
13,620 14,847
16,041
18,127
17,650 17,800
20,171
24,455
30,078
36,957
42,472 45,607
48,046
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Source: Food Stamp Program Participation and Benefit Issuance Report: DFA 256
Monterey County: CalFresh TrendsState Fiscal Year 2001 - 2014
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County of Monterey/CDSS
14
Addressing the CalFresh Denominator Problem: The Child-only Method
• The child-only method was developed to obtain an indirect estimation of undocumented persons.
• The starting point is the number of child-only households in a geographic area.
• It makes assumptions regarding the: percent of child-only households who are child-only due to the
citizenship status of parents/guardians percent of child-only households who are child-only because the
parent is an SSI recipient or a minor number of adults in each child-only household number of adults in households without children
Note:
o The methodology under estimates undocumented adults in counties or ZIP codes with high percentage of unmarried adults living and cooking meals togethersuch as in labor camps.
o It also under estimates undocumented adults in counties or ZIP codes where a high percentage of the children of undocumented households are not receiving CalFresh.
o The methodology slightly over-estimates the number of undocumented adults in counties or ZIP codes where single-motherhood is high and the average number of adults in a household is close to one.
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The Program Reach Index: An Even Better Measure of Program IndexRemoving Ineligible Undocumented Immigrants from the Denominator
PRI = 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶 −𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑃𝑃𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐶𝐶
𝑅𝑅𝑃𝑃𝑅𝑅 < 130𝟏 𝐶𝐶𝑃𝑃𝐹𝐹 − 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 ∗ 𝑅𝑅 − 0.94 child−only households ∗ 1.77 ∗ (1+(124177))
Data assumptions:
• Of child-only households, 94% have undocumented immigrant adults *• Number of adults by household type **
• Undocumented immigrant households with children have an average of1.77 adults
• Undocumented immigrant households without children have an average of 1.24 adults
*𝑝𝑝: County proportion of SSI recipients at or below 130% FPLFresno = 0.54
* Based on child-only households in regions with low immigration ** The Urban Institute
CDSS Research Services Branch 15
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County of Monterey/CDSS 16
Geocoding Pilot: Lessons for a
Mid-sized County
A. Lomboy
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County of Monterey/CDSS 17
Applied GIS - Geographic Information System Minimum County Infrastructure Requirements
Software: ArcGIS (ESRI) Trained GIS professional (s) Data analyst (s) Easy access to SAWS CalFresh data Complete and up-to-date data on SSI
recipients Accurate street-level address data
enabling high geocoding match rate Accurate and up-to-date address locator
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County of Monterey/CDSS 18
6,049
3,607
2,551 2,404
1,704
952 506 340 317 208 197 60
Num
ber
Monterey County CalFresh Outreach Population Targeted for Assistance
July 2014 – June 2015
“The Monterey County Department of Social Services administers over seventy programs that daily serve an
estimated 100,000 residents…”
*Sources: Children’s Health Outreach for Insurance, Care and Enrollment (CHOICE)
Monterey County Department of Social Services
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County of Monterey/CDSS 19
Average ZIP code percentage of CalFesh eligible = 23.0%
Monterey County: The Number and Percentage of Persons Eligible to Receive
CalFresh by ZIP codeTotal poor: 382,539 CalFresh eligible : 87,912
* Source: ACS 5 year 2009 - 2013
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
ZIP code
Total poor CalFresh eligible
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Coun
ty o
f M
onte
rey/
CDSS
20
Monterey County, Application of CDSS’ Child-only Method:Estimated Number of Undocumented Persons and Associated PRI Gain by
ZIP code
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Coun
ty o
f M
onte
rey/
CDSS
21
Monterey County, Application of CDSS’ Child-only Method:Estimated Number of Undocumented Persons and Associated PRI Gain for Census
Tracts in ZIP code 93901,93905, 93906
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County of Monterey/CDSS 22
Monterey County : Program Reach Index and the Number of Persons Below 50 % of FPL by ZIP code
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Coun
ty o
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onte
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CDSS
23
Monterey County : Program Reach Index and the Number of Persons Below 50 % of FPL by Census tract
ZIP codes 93901, 93905, 93906
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Getting Down to the Street Level
Monterey County
CDSS Research Services Branch
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County of Monterey/CDSS 25
SUMMARY AND CONCUSION
A. Adugna
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County of Monterey/CDSS 26
County Amador Monterey
CalFresh recipients 3,278 46,899Number of child only households 65 7,209SSI recipients (total) 702 9,172% SSI recipients (below 130% FPL) 0.24 0.43No. SSI recipients (below 130% FPL) 168 3,944No. undocumented below 130% FPL 184 20,390No. below 50% FPL 1,767 23,644No. 50 -99 % FPL 2,383 44,541No. 100 - 124% FPL 1,061 24,515No. below 125% FPL 5,211 92,700CalFresh denominator (no. below 130% FPL) 5,419 96,408Adjusted denominaor 5,067 72,074Program Access Index (CFPA 2013) 0.65 0.53Program Reach Index (DSS - 2013) 0.65 0.65
Summary: Advantages of the Program Reach Index: Monterey County in Comparison with Amador, a County with Low Undocumented
Population
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Geocoding enables us to analyze CalFresh data in the context of the environments in which recipients and potential eligibles live.
The Child-Only Method can be used at county levels and for regions within a county.
o In some instances, zip code or tract-level analysis may be feasible.o Data quality declines for smaller geographic areas.
It appears that in places where non-English speakers are a minority, the participation rate of child-only and non child-only households is significantly lower than in places where they are a majority.
The low number of child-only household in places where non-English speakers are a minority also leads to low estimates of undocumented persons in those areas.
Conclusion
County of Monterey/CDSS 27