data project - dc vote · titled “why bother asking? the limited value of self-reported vote...

March 2015

Data Project

3 Overview

6 About the Talking Transition Survey Sample

10 The Issues

12 Survey Questions by Issue

13 General Outlook

14 Housing

15 Jobs

16 Police-Community Relations

17 Public Safety

18 Health

19 Education

20 Social Services

21 Transit

22 Street Cleanliness

23 Internet

24 Congressional Representation

25 Ward Profiles

27 Ward 1

28 Ward 2

29 Ward 3

30 Ward 4

31 Ward 5

32 Ward 6

33 Ward 7

34 Ward 8

35 Tenure Profiles

37 General Outlook

38 Housing

39 Police-Community Relations

40 Health

41 Congressional Representation

42 Appendix

Contents

Overview

4

Talking Transition DC is an experiment in innovative civic engagement, policy, and grass-roots organizing that seeks to transform the typically insular, closed-door process that occurs between Election Day and Inauguration Day into an opportunity for broad civil discourse – and ultimately a stronger, more equitable democracy. Talking Transition began in New York City, immediately following the election of Mayor Bill de Blasio, and yielded one of the most expansive public opinion surveys in the city’s history as part of an overall citizen engagement strategy.

Talking Transition sought to replicate this effort in Washington, DC, following its 2014 mayoral election, through multiple channels of engagement including policy papers, newspaper op-eds, and a town-hall gathering at the Washington Convention Center. As a part of these efforts, the Talking Transition survey was conducted on foot and via the web during a four-week period in December 2014 and January 2015. Over 8,500 Washingtonians made their voices heard on issues ranging from housing to education, and police-community relations to transit. The results are in:

Talking Transition engaged Washingtonians who do not always participate in the political process. Over 45 percent of survey respondents indicated that they had not voted in the 2014 mayoral election. Talking Transition sought to engage all Washingtonians in shaping the agenda of the new mayor – as in the Talking Transition New York City experience, street teams were effective in giving a voice to those traditionally underrepresented in political processes.

Residents across Washington, DC, were united on more issues than they were divided. Washingtonians responded as one on many issues, from their access to healthcare to the state of housing affordability. On some of these issues, housing included, Washingtonians were pessimistic, but on most issues, District residents responded positively.

Nonetheless, a geographic divide clearly exists in the District of Columbia. On three issues, police-community relations, public safety, and job availability, residents responded very differently based on where in DC they live. Residents living in Northwest – specifically, Wards 2, 3, and 4 – tended to respond more positively. Residents of the Southeastern Wards, Wards 7 and 8, tended to have much more negative responses to these issues.

Even on issues where D.C. residents were united in their sentiment, residents living in Northwest tended to respond more positively overall. For instance, while all Wards agreed that internet access was good, residents of the Northwest thought it was very good.

Housing affordability and social services quality were the key priorities for DC residents. Washingtonians were united: social services quality and housing affordability were bad and getting worse. These issues are vital in the everyday lives of DC residents and will need to become priorities in Mayor Bowser’s agenda.

DC residents were well aware that they lack a voting representative in Congress. Across all Wards, residents stated that people in their neighborhood are well aware that DC lacks voting representation in the national legislative branch. Washingtonians who have lived here the longest were most aware of this issue.

In terms of demographic makeup, the survey sample was largely representative of Washington, DC today. The survey sample very closely matched the racial/ethnic and gender profile of Washington, DC. Furthermore, the sample came very close to matching the geographic distribution of residents in Washington, DC. The sample was somewhat over-representative of residents aged 24 – 44, and somewhat under-representative of those under 15 and over 65. The Talking Transition canvass team worked tirelessly to ensure that the survey would reflect the demographics of Washington, DC.

This report will analyze survey responses in four different ways. First, the report details the makeup of the survey sample. The following pages contain an analysis of the types of DC residents represented in this survey and a discussion of where the Talking Transition team did well, and where the team fell short in achieving a representative sample. Second, the results are presented by how DC responded to issues. Residents indicated how things were doing – good, okay, or bad – and where they thought things are going – getting better, staying the same, getting worse. Third, the results are presented by Ward to give a geographic picture of DC sentiment. Finally, there is a brief analysis on how responses to the survey questions varied based on how long people have lived in the District of Columbia.

Overview

5

Education

Internet

Public Safety

Transit

JobsHousingGeneral Outlook

Summary of survey responses by issue

Bad Good

Cleanliness Congressional Representation

Health

Police-Community Relations

Social Services

About the Talking Transition Survey Sample

7

The Talking Transition survey results were collected through both a web-based survey and a field canvass operation using iPad tablets to record responses. In addition, a small number of responses were collected using paper versions of the survey. The canvass was conducted by a partnership of three organizations: DC Vote, which hosted the web-based survey and provided office space as a “home base” for the canvassing effort; DC Working Families, which recruited, managed, and oversaw the field canvass team; and HR&A Advisors, which developed the survey instrument, provided real-time data analysis to support canvass management, and completed the analysis contained in this report.

In total, 8,552 Washingtonians completed the survey, over 80% of whom were engaged by a field canvasser. DC residents responded to six different demographic questions at the beginning of the survey – home zip code, birth year, length of time lived in DC, race/ethnicity, gender identification, and whether or not they voted in the 2014 mayoral election. Only residents of the District of Columbia could participate in the survey, and the canvassing team prioritized collecting a sample as representative of Washington, DC as possible. Non-DC residents were not allowed to take part in the survey, and the data analysis contained in this report contains only information from respondents who provided a Washington, DC zip code. As respondents completed the survey in the field, the canvassing team shifted strategies to target populations that had been under-sampled. While the survey was available in English, Spanish, French, and Chinese, only the English and Spanish versions of the survey received responses.

The Talking Transition sample mirrored the population of Washington, DC in many ways. The sample came very close to being both an accurate racial/ethnic and gender representation of Washington, DC. The sample accurately reflected the 2010 U.S. Census population proportions for residents aged 15–24, 45–54, and 55–64. Residents between the ages 0–14 and over 65 were under-sampled, while those between the ages of 25–34 and 35–44 were over-sampled.

Compared to the geographic distribution of population in Washington, DC, the sample was mostly on target, with minor exceptions. Residents in Ward 3 were under-sampled, while those in Wards 1 and 2 were over-sampled.

Respondents were overwhelmingly lifelong and long-term DC residents. Over 55% of respondents indicated that they had lived in Washington for over fifteen years, and almost one-third of the sample had lived in DC between 4 and 15 years. Only about 15% of survey respondents indicated that they had lived in Washington, DC for less than three years. The Talking Transition team found that, in certain cases, the length of a respondent’s tenure in Washington did impact his or her responses. In particular, responses to questions about police-community relations, housing, health, and knowledge about DC’s lack of Congressional representation tended to vary by residential tenure, as will be detailed later in this report.

Both voters and non-voters are well represented in the Talking Transition sample. Non-voters comprise over 45% of the sample, while voters account for about 54% of the sample. In a report published by the Harvard Kennedy School in 2012 titled “Why Bother Asking? The Limited Value of Self-Reported Vote Intention,” Todd Rogers and Masa Aida cite two studies that find 13-20% of self-reported voters do not actually vote. Applying these findings to the Talking Transition DC survey suggests that the actual voter turnout of this sample could be as low as 43%. However, only 27.3% of registered voters in Washington, DC took part in the 2014 mayoral election1 – a much lower share than was reported by respondents in this survey effort. By engaging many non-voters, the survey achieved a major goal of reaching those that do not typically take part in the political process.

1 Voter turnout data was provided by the District of Columbia Board of Elections.

8

Total Responses Collected

With which gender* do you identify?

Did you vote in the 2014 mayoral election?

How long have you lived in DC?

52.8%47.2%

54.8%45.2%

8,552

Street team with iPad:

7,07682.7%

Web:17.3%

*The Talking Transition survey gave respondents the option to identify as “Transgender” or “Other.” Survey results show that 19 individuals (0.23%) identified themselves as transgender and 22 individuals identified themselves as other (0.26%). The data was not depicted in the chart above, due to the very small size of the sample.

Male FemaleTotal iPad and Web

Yes 53%

Lifelong Resident

55.2%Longtime Resident

30.2%

Recent Transplant

14.6%

No 47%

Talking Transition 2010 Census

9

How old are you?

With which race/ethnicity* do you identify?

Respondent Distribution By Ward

*Respondents self-reported their respective racial or ethnic identity from among the following choices: Asian or Pacific Islander, African Diaspora, Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, White/Caucasian, and Other. Responses for “Black or African American” and “African Diaspora” have been combined into “Black/African American/African Diaspora”. The 2010 U.S. Census only reports on Black or African American.

Ward 1

Asian / Pacific Islander

Black / African American / African

Diaspora

Hispanic / Latino White / Caucasian

Other

65+55–6445–5435–4425–3415–240–14

Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8

Talking Transition 2010 Census

14%17% 17%

21%

50.7%

12.4% 12.8% 13.1% 12.6% 12.4% 12.6% 11.9% 12.2%

9.1%

38.5%

3.6% 4.1%

13% 12%8% 6%

11% 11%13%

22%

35%

48.3%

16.3% 16.1%

8.4%

12%14.1%

12.3%10.5% 10.4%

11.2%

35.5%

2.4% 2.6%

1%

The Issues

11

The Talking Transition survey included twenty-three questions that asked residents about a range of issues from education to jobs, and housing to internet access. Residents indicated whether they think an issue was currently “good”, “bad” or “ok”, and whether things were “getting better”, “staying the same”, or “getting worse”.

The survey began with ten “priority” questions – questions that the Talking Transition team believed to be most important in the day-to-day lives of Washingtonians; these questions were listed first on all surveys in order to ensure receiving as many responses as possible while mitigating potential survey fatigue. The remaining thirteen questions were presented next in a randomized order to guard against survey bias, and to ensure each question received a comparable number of answers. For purposes of this report, the 23 questions have been grouped into twelve broad categories. For example, the “Housing” category asked three questions – one about housing quality and two about housing affordability. The question groupings are detailed on the following page.

The heat maps found throughout this report illustrate how residents in different Wards felt about the issues. Based on the mean survey responses by Ward, the heat maps show how responses in each question category differed by geographical location.

Methodology

Questions asking residents about current conditions had six possible responses – five responses ranging between “good” and “bad,” plus “I don’t know” – while those asking residents about trends had four possible responses – “getting better,” “staying the same,” “getting worse,” and “I don’t know.” Each possible survey response follows the coding pattern displayed in Figure 1. In categories, like Housing, with multiple questions, each respondent was assigned a “score” – or the average value of their responses for all questions within a specific category. The team used this score to determine the average response to any issue for each Ward. This approach ensured that a resident who may have responded to two questions in a category did not receive more representation in the data than a respondent who answered only one question. Where there are meaningful differences in responses across questions within a specific category, this report discusses those differences.

The following pages contain an analysis of resident sentiment for each issue. The bar charts show how residents in Washington, DC responded as a whole. The analysis contains maps illustrating how these responses broke down geographically by Ward. For all but three issue categories, the sample sizes are large enough to ensure a margin of error of +/-3% or less with a 95% confidence interval.

The color-coded maps represent the sentiment expressed within each Ward. The intensity of the color (blue for “good” and red for “bad”) represents the strength of the sentiment expressed within each Ward. How residents felt the issue was changing is represented by a dot in the center of the Ward. A black dot indicates that residents believed the issue was “getting worse,” a gray dot indicates that residents believed the issue was “staying the same,” and a white dot indicates that residents believed the issue was “getting better.”

Trend

Current

Possible Answers Getting Better Staying the Same Getting Worse I don’t know

Possible Answers Good X Okay X Bad I don’t know

Data Code 1 0 -1

Data Code 2 1 0 -1 -2

12

Survey Questions by Issue

Issue Area Question

General Outlook In my neighborhood, my ability to lead the kind of life I want is…

Jobs In DC, my ability to find a job that pays enough for me to stay in DC is…

Housing In my neighborhood, housing affordability is…In my neighborhood, the quality of available housing is…In my neighborhood, my ability to afford the kind of home I want is…

Education In my neighborhood, public schools are…In DC, charter schools are…

Health In DC, access to healthcare is...In my neighborhood, healthy food options are…In DC, access to reproductive health services is…

Social Services In DC, immigrant services are…In DC, programs to reduce homelessness are…In my neighborhood, after-school and childcare options are…In my neighborhood, senior citizen services are…In DC, programs to reduce poverty are…

Police In my neighborhood, police-community relations are…

Public Safety In my neighborhood, my personal safety is…

Transit

Cleanliness

Internet Access

Congress

In my neighborhood, public buses are…In my neighborhood, Metro service is…

In my neighborhood, street cleanliness and trash pick up services are…In my neighborhood, recycling pick-up services are…

In my neighborhood, internet access is…

In my neighborhood, people are well aware that DC does not have voting members of Congress.

13

General Outlook

Washingtonians were asked about their ability to live the life they want to live in their communities – a question that was designed to explore emotional attachment to community and to obliquely explore attitudes toward demographic change and gentrification; economic opportunity; access to open space, quality schools, and retail; and a range of other issues that collectively constitute the reasons we love (or don’t) our neighborhoods. In terms of current conditions, Washingtonians for the most part responded positively or neutrally to this question, with residents of Wards 3 and 4 responding most positively. Throughout the District, the trend was also “staying the same” or “getting better.” Citywide, the plurality of residents were generally neutral – 44% reported things were

“okay,” and 52% reported they were “staying the same”. Residents of Wards 7 and 8 were most likely to believe that things were “getting better.”

Good

Bad

12.5%

8.8%

14%

20.7%

44.1%

51.7%

23%25.3%

N =

8,0

34

Mo

E =

+/-

2.7

%

N =

7,8

96M

oE

= +

/- 1

.5%

Good

Bad

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

14

Housing

DC residents were united in their negative views of housing affordability and quality. Almost 50% of all DC residents believed that their housing conditions were bad, and a majority of residents also expected the situation to worsen. While residents in Ward 3 did not view the situation as negatively as did residents in other Wards, nowhere in the District was the housing issue seen in a positive light, and in all Wards, residents believed the situation was getting worse.

The question, “housing affordability is…” produced more negative responses across all Wards than did the question “my ability to afford the kind of home I want is…”. When asked about their ability to afford housing in the District of Columbia, residents in all Wards responded negatively; but they responded

Good

Bad

26.7%

22.9%

15.5%

6%

28.9%

more positively than when asked about housing affordability in a more general sense.

Residents tended to respond more positively when asked about housing quality than when asked about affordability – this held true for residents in all Wards except for Wards 7 and 8. Residents in Ward 3 responded very positively when asked about housing quality, while those in Wards 1, 2, 4, and 6 responded neutrally. Those living in Wards 5, 7, and 8 responded very negatively about housing quality.

34.6%

52.7%

12.7%

Good

Bad

N =

8,0

80M

oE

= +

/- 2

.4%

N =

7,9

76M

oE

= +

/- 1

.2%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

15

Jobs

DC residents were asked about their ability to find a job that pays enough for them to stay in DC. Overall, the response was negative/neutral. One-third of DC residents said that their chances of finding a well-paying job were bad and getting worse, with more than 40% reporting that their chances were OK. Over 50% of residents think the jobs situation was staying the same. Only 24% and 14.5%, respectively, said the situation was good and getting better.

This was a question for which the geographic divisions were among the most stark. Residents of Ward 3 responded relatively favorably about jobs, while residents of Wards 2 and 4 responded neutrally. Residents of Wards 7 and 8 on the other hand responded overwhelmingly in the negative.

Good

Bad

23.1%

11.1%

10.8%

13.9%

41.1%

N =

7,7

06M

oE

= +

/- 2

.9%

N =

7,5

44M

oE

= +

/- 1

.5%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7Good

Bad

52.4%

33.1%

14.5%

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

16

Responses to the question about police-community relations were very similar, if a bit less negative, than those to the jobs question. Overall, residents indicated that relations between police and the community were okay or bad; a clear majority thought things were neither improving nor getting worse, while almost a third of all residents indicated that relations were getting worse. Fewer than 12% of DC residents saw relations between police and the community as improving.

Also as with the jobs question, residents living farther to the northwest responded more positively to the issue, while those living farther to the southeast responded much more negatively. A similar pattern can be seen when looking at the

trend, notwithstanding that residents DC-wide tended to believe than the trend was becoming more negative than the status quo.

It is worth noting that the survey effort coincided with protests in Washington, DC and across the country over the deaths of Michael Brown in Ferguson, MO and Eric Garner in New York City.


Good

Good

Bad Bad

22.9%

9.2%

10.4%

13.6%

44%

N =

7,4

28M

oE

= +

/- 2

.9%

N =

7,1

24M

oE

= +

/- 1

.5%

4

3

1 5

2

6 7

855.9%

32.6%

11.5%

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

17

Good

7%

8.8%

18.3%

24.9%

40.9%

4

Public Safety

65.1%

17.3%17.6%

Bad

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

Overall, Washingtonians feel safe. The vast majority reported that they felt good or okay about their personal safety in their neighborhoods; only 15% said that they felt things are either bad or slightly bad. Two-thirds of respondents stated that they did not think the situation is changing.

Ward 7 – and to a lesser extent, Ward 4 – is the exception. Over one-third of residents in Ward 7 do not feel safe in their neighborhood, a higher share than in any other Ward. Residents of both Ward 7 and 4 (where residents nonetheless feel that things are currently reasonably safe) were mostly likely to think the situation is getting worse.

N =

7,4

28M

oE

= +

/- 2

.9%

N =

7,1

24M

oE

= +

/- 1

.5%

Good

Bad

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

18

Health

Residents were asked about their access to healthy food options, healthcare, and reproductive health services. Across the District of Columbia, residents held a very favorable view of the current state of healthcare access. Over 50% of respondents indicated that they felt either good or slightly good about these issues, while nearly 43% said that healthcare was improving in DC.

Across Wards, there was little variance. While residents in Northwest expressed a more favorable view, in no Ward was the response negative. Indeed, the question “my access to healthcare is…” did not produce the same geographical pattern seen in other questions: residents in Southeast were more likely to believe that things were getting better than were

Good

Bad4.7%

12.3%

30.7%

21.6%

30.8%

residents of the northwestern Wards. In contrast, when asked about access to healthy food options, residents in the southeastern Wards tended to respond that things were “okay” and “staying the same,” while those in the northwestern Wards said that things were “good” and “getting better.”

40.8%

16.6%

42.6%

Good

Bad

N =

7,9

86M

oE

= +

/- 2

.2%

N =

7,8

84M

oE

= +

/- 1

.2%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

19

Education

Overall, public and charter schools were viewed favorably in Washington, DC. About one-third of residents expressed a positive view about DC schools, and over 30% said things were improving. A near majority of DC residents believed that things were okay, and a bare majority believed they were staying the same. Overall, residents expressed more favorable views of public schools than of charter schools; however, this varied by Ward.

Residents in Wards 2 and 3 responded most positively regarding current conditions, while residents in Ward 8 were most likely to say that things were getting better.

Good

Bad

10.7%

9%

15.6%

18.7%

46%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

51.7%

17.7%

30.6%

N =

7,0

86M

oE

= +

/- 2

.7%

N =

6,8

42M

oE

= +

/- 1

.6%

Good

Bad

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

20

Social Services

No issue spurred more negative reaction than social services. Questions were asked about residents’ views on immigrant services, senior services, after-school and childcare options, and programs to reduce poverty and homelessness. Overall, 53% of respondents believed these services were poor or relatively poor; 42% also said they believed things were getting worse. Residents expressed the most negative views of immigration services and programs to reduce homelessness and poverty while expressing relatively neutral views of senior-citizen services and childcare options.

Across DC, all Wards expressed a negative view of social services, but the sentiment was most pronounced in the southeastern areas of the

Good

Bad

25.3%

28.9%

11.1%

5.9%

28.8%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

city – Wards 7 and 8. This held true for all social services questions, except for immigrant services, where residents in Ward 8 held more favorable views than their counterparts in other Wards. Across all question groups, residents responded most negatively when asked about programs to reduce homelessness and poverty – clearly indicating a policy area that will require attention from Mayor Bowser.

43.6%42.2%

14.2%

Good

Bad

N =

1,4

65M

oE

= +

/- 5

.2%

N =

1,3

61M

oE

= +

/- 2

.9%

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

21

Transit

Residents in Washington, DC were happy with the state of the public transit system – both the bus and metro systems. Fewer than 20% of Washingtonians viewed the public transit system in a negative light, while over 50% expressed a positive view. Almost 55% of residents thought things are staying the same. Overall, residents across Wards expressed similar views – though residents of Wards 7 and 8 tended to be more neutral in their views. There are fewer metro stations in Wards 7 and 8 than in Wards closer to the center of Washington, DC.

Good

Bad7.4%

12.4%

27.8%

26.3%

26.1%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

54.9%

25.3%19.8%

N =

1,4

80M

oE

= +

/- 5

.8%

N =

1,4

23M

oE

= +

/- 2

.8%

Good

Bad

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

22

Street Cleanliness

Residents in Washington, DC were happy with trash pick-up and recycling services. Over 50% of residents responded positively when asked about issues regarding the cleanliness of public spaces. Almost 70% of residents did not expect this to change. The most positive views were expressed by residents living in the northwestern Wards of the city. Residents in Wards 7 and 8 tended to be neutral about street cleanliness and trash pick-up services, though still very positive about recycling services.

Good

Bad5.8%

12.3%

24.2%

30.2%

27.5%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

69.5%

11.8%18.7%

Good

Bad

N =

1,5

11M

oE

= +

/- 5

.6%

N =

1,4

25M

oE

= +

/- 2

.2%

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

23

Internet

Internet access was viewed very positively throughout the District of Columbia. Over 50% of residents said that their access to the internet was either “good” or “slightly good,” almost 60% expected current conditions to continue, while almost one-third of DC residents said that internet access was improving. These sentiments were expressed across all Wards. Residents of Wards 7 and 8 were more likely than residents of other Wards to say that internet access was improving.

Good

Bad7.4%4.5%

14%

38.2%

35.9%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

57.1%

11.7%

31.2%

N =

7,5

96M

oE

= +

/- 2

.8%

N =

7,3

02M

oE

= +

/- 1

.4%

Good

Bad

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

24

Awareness of Congressional Representation

Washingtonians were asked to assess how aware people in their community are about DC’s lack of Congressional representation. Specifically, they were asked to respond to the following two questions: “In my neighborhood, people are well aware that DC does not have voting members of Congress,” and “Do you think that more people are aware of this than before?”

Over 50% of respondents indicated that people in their neighborhood were aware that Washington, DC does not have a voting member of Congress, and roughly the same percentage indicated that the level of awareness was unchanging. In a Ward-by-Ward comparison of this issue, current awareness and awareness trends about DC’s lack of Congressional representation were strong throughout Washington,

Aware

Not Aware

13.2%

4.8%

12%

39.2%

30.8%

DC, though strongest in Wards 3 and 4, to the northwest.

The issue of Congressional representation – like that of police-community relations – may have been in news media during the survey effort, due to contemporaneous budget negotiations in the United States Congress. During these negotiations, Congress barred DC from using its budget to enact a voter referendum legalizing marijuana that DC voters had approved in November 2014. While this should not diminish the weight given to these survey responses, it is important to note that the underlying issue of DC’s lack of voting Congressional representation was highly prevalent in the public discourse for the first week of the survey effort.

51.5%

26.3%22.2%

Good

Bad More Aware

Less Aware Same

N =

7,5

96M

oE

= +

/- 2

.8%

N =

7,3

02M

oE

= +

/- 1

.4%

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

More Aware

Staying the Same

Less Aware

Ward Profiles

26

The following pages display how residents in each Ward currently feel – whether things are “good,” “bad,” or “okay” – and how residents feel things are trending – whether “getting better,” “getting worse,” or “staying the same.” For each issue there are two charts, side by side. They are not shown on the same axis, and the results should not be interpreted as such. For graphs corresponding to the current state of an issue, dark blue refers to “good,” light blue to “slightly good,” gray to “okay,” light red to “slightly bad,” and dark red to “bad.” Graphs representing trends are labelled accordingly.

The Talking Transition Team sampled about 1.4% percent of DC’s population. The table below shows demographic data from the 2010 U.S. Census, along with the percentage of the population surveyed from each Ward. Sample sizes for individual Wards ranged from 0.9% to 1.8%. Respondents’ Wards were classified based on their self-reported home zip codes.

For zip codes that sit within multiple Wards, the team assigned residents based on the percentage of each zip code that lies within “inhabitable space” inside a given Ward. For example, the National Mall is not considered “inhabitable space” and would not factor into the share of that zip code within Ward 2.

Washington, DC Ward 1 Ward 2 Ward 3 Ward 4 Ward 5 Ward 6 Ward 7 Ward 8

Total Population, 2010 601,723 74,426 76,883 78,887 75,773 74,336 76,000 71,748 73,662Share of Total Population 12.4% 12.8% 13.1% 12.6% 12.4% 12.6% 11.9% 12.2% Median Age, 2010 33.9 31.6 29.9 36.2 40 38.1 34.5 36.4 30 Median HH Income, 2014 $65,202 $68,870 $95,608 $132,471 $79,967 $51,672 $79,293 $42,702 $32,204 Mean HH Income, 2014 $103,763 $99,964 $133,498 $195,700 $127,286 $73,786 $108,368 $62,643 $48,504 Racial Profile,* 2010White 38.5% 47.7% 74.4% 83.6% 24.5% 16.5% 49.5% 2.0% 3.6%Black/African American 50.7% 33.0% 9.7% 5.0% 58.7% 76% 41.3% 94.6% 93.6%Hispanic 9.1% 21.1% 8.2% 7.5% 18.7% 6.4% 5.0% 2.7% 1.8% Asian 3.5% 4.1% 8.9% 6.7% 1.7% 1.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.4%Other 4.7% 10.5% 3.6% 1.5% 11.2% 3.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7%Two or more races 2.9% 4.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.9% 2.7% 2.8% 1.7% 1.7%

Survey respondents as 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% percent of population

*The U.S. Census Bureau allows respondents to select "Hispanic" as ethnicity, while also selecting another race. For this reason, the racial profiles in this table may add up to over 100%.

Source: 2010 U.S. Census, ESRI Business Analyst

4

31 5

2

6

8

7

27

Congressional Representation

Good

Bad

16.4%

4.2%

12.7%

40.1%

26.6%49%

28.6%22.4%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Public Safety

Good

Bad2.9%7.1%

22.7%

26.1%

41.2%

65.5%

15.1%19.4%

General Outlook

Good

Bad

14.4%

8.5%

13.1%

20.7%

40.9%

51.9%

25.5%22.6%

Ward 1

Cleanliness

Good

Bad

6.6%

13.7%

26.6%

25.5%

27.7% 72.5%

14.1%13.3%

Health

Good

Bad2.3%10.2%

34%

28.2%

25.3% 40.2%

12.1%

47.7%


Good

Bad

18.7%

7.6%

13.3%

15.3%

45%

62.2%

25.1%12.7%

Education

Good

Bad

9.1%

9%

15.5%

20.6%

45.8%

54.9%

14.3%

30.7%

Internet

Good

Bad

7.3%4.3%

13.8%

41.4%

33.2% 57.8%

11.2%

31%

Social Services

Good

Bad

24.4%

30.5%

9%

6.8%

29.3%

42.5%45.5%

12.1%

Housing

Good

Bad

31.8%

24.1%

13.2%

6.5%

24.4%

29.5%

59.2%

11.2%

Jobs

Good

Bad

23.7%

11.3%

11.6%

16.1%

37.4%

55.2%

31.2%

13.6%

Transit

Good

Bad2.6%11.5%

32.6%

35.9%

17.4%

54.6%

19.5%26%

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

28

Jobs

Good

Bad

15.3%

10.7%

14.1%

13.4%

46.5%

61.2%

27.5%

11.3%

General Outlook

Good

Bad

10.6%

8.7%

17.8%

17.7%

45.3%

59.9%

21.1%19%

Ward 2

Cleanliness

Good

Bad3.1%

11.5%

21.2%

32.7%

31.4%73.7%

8.4%17.8%

Health

Good

Bad2.5%12.7%

33%

19.5%

32.3%48.3%

17.2%

34.5%


Good

Bad

15%

9.6%

11.3%

12.8%

51.4%

63.3%

28.5%

8.2%

Education

Good

Bad6.2%7.4%

20%

17.8%

48.6%60.5%

18%21.5%

Internet

Good

Bad5.5%6.9%

15.2%

38%

34.4% 63.1%

13.1%23.8%

Social Services

Good

Bad

20.5%

29.5%

10.5%

5.5%

34%

43.7%41.6%

14.7%

Housing

Good

Bad

20.9%

20.2%

21%

8%

29.8%

43.9%44.9%

11.2%

Public Safety

Good

Bad2.1%5.2%

19.7%

26.4%

46.6%

73.6%

9.3%17%

Transit

Good

Bad4.8%

13.5%

30.9%

23.7%

27.1% 54.2%

25.4%20.4%


Good

Bad

9.8%

7.6%

12.5%

34.3%

35.7% 57.8%

20.9%21.3%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

29

General Outlook

Good

Bad4.3%7.4%

19.5%

28.7%

40.1%63%

15%22%

Jobs

Good

Bad

7.7%

10.4%

16.8%

17.5%

47.6% 70.2%

18%11.7%

Ward 3

Cleanliness

Good

Bad2.7%4.1%

24.3%

44.6%

24.3%

76.8%

8.7%14.5%

Health

Good

Bad1.6%7.9%

33.6%

26.7%

30.2%50.3%

11.4%

38.3%


Good

Bad

7.8%

7.4%

16.4%

20.9%

47.8% 75.1%

13.9%11%

Education

Good

Bad3.6%8.8%

25.4%

22.3%

39.3%63%

12.2%24.8%

Internet

Good

Bad3.2%4.2%

15.9%

45.5%

31.1%

64.7%

8.9%

26.4%

Social Services

Good

Bad

19.4%

28.5%

16.7%

5.6%

29.9%

51.1%

35%

13.9%

Housing

Good

Bad

14.6%

19.1%

26.9%

7.9%

31.5%

50.2%38.7%

11.1%

Public Safety

Good

Bad2.2%4.3%

25.4%

40.6%

27.5%

77.5%

11.6%10.9%

Transit

Good

Bad

9%

8.3%

32.4%

30.3%

20%

54.3%

34.3%

11.4%


Good

Bad

7.5%5.3%

14.9%

40.6%

31.8%

63%

23.5%13.5%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

30

Public Safety

Good

Bad

10.4%

11.7%

13.9%

22.1%

42% 59.2%

27.7%

13.1%

Ward 4

Cleanliness

Good

Bad4.9%

14%

25.5%

32.9%

22.6%72.6%

11.9%15.5%

Health

Good

Bad4.6%10.9%

32.5%

26.4%

25.5%42%

14%

44%


Good

Bad

17.5%

7.8%

11.9%

17.9%

44.9%

63.3%

24.3%12.5%

Education

Good

Bad

9.7%

9.9%

16.3%

20.5%

43.6%

51.9%

14.8%

33.3%

Internet

Good

Bad6.1%3.9%

15.4%

42.3%

32.3%

61.7%

8.9%

29.4%

Social Services

Good

Bad

26.9%

31.2%

15%

6%

20.9%

49.3%40.9%

9.8%

Housing

Good

Bad

25.5%

23.9%

14.6%

5.8%

30.2%

33.8%

55%

11.3%

General Outlook

Good

Bad

11.5%

9%

14.6%

24.5%

40.3% 52.5%

22.7%24.8%

Jobs

Good

Bad

20.7%

11%

10.4%

17.2%

40.7%

54.4%

30.6%

15%

Transit

Good

Bad5.7%

12.7%

28.6%

23.3%

29.8%65.2%

23%11.7%


Good

Bad

14.1%

3.6%

11.2%

44%

27.1% 50%

27.9%22.1%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

31

Ward 5

Cleanliness

Good

Bad4.7%9.9%

22.2%

34.9%

28.3% 61.8%

12.1%26.1%

Health

Good

Bad

7.3%

12.8%

26%

20%

33.9%

36.9%

18.4%

44.7%


Good

Bad

23.4%

9.1%

8.5%

13.9%

45%

52.1%

33.4%

14.5%

Education

Good

Bad

14.5%

10.1%

12.6%

17.1%

45.8%

50%

19.1%30.9%

Internet

Good

Bad

8.4%3.4%

13%

35.3%

39.9%56.1%

11.4%

32.5%

Social Services

Good

Bad

29.5%

26.8%

11.5%

7.1%

25.1%

37.4%48%

14.6%

Housing

Good

Bad

29%

22.2%

12.2%

5.4%

31.2%

31.4%

55.5%

13.1%

Public Safety

Good

Bad

8.8%6.1%

16.6%

23.2%

45.3%59.9%

19.2%20.9%

General Outlook

Good

Bad

15.4%

8.1%

11%

20.1%

45.4%

47.6%

23.5%29%

Jobs

Good

Bad

25.9%

10.8%

8%

15%

40.3%

47.3%34.8%

17.9%

Transit

Good

Bad6.5%

15.5%

20%

29%

29%55.3%

22.6%22.1%


Good

Bad

14.5%

3.7%

13%

39.4%

29.4%51.1%

25.6%23.3%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

32

Ward 6

Cleanliness

Good

Bad

7.3%

14.6%

25%

27.6%

25.5% 70.7%

10.5%18.8%

Health

Good

Bad5.4%

11.2%

28.1%

19.8%

35.4%

37.3%

17.5%

45.2%


Good

Bad

22.9%

9.7%

10.9%

12.6%

43.9%

53.2%

33.8%

13%

Education

Good

Bad

11.3%

9.4%

12.6%

14.7%

52%53.9%

16.8%

29.4%

Internet

Good

Bad

7.9%4.1%

12.7%

34.7%

40.6% 60.9%

12.3%26.7%

Social Services

Good

Bad

24.4%

30.5%

9%6.8%

29.3%

42.5%45.5%

12.1%

Housing

Good

Bad

27.9%

23.4%

13.7%

5%

30.1%

31.7%

56.1%

12.2%

Public Safety

Good

Bad

6.9%

10.9%

21.8%

20.7%

39.7% 67.9%

11.9%20.2%

General Outlook

Good

Bad

11.7%

7.5%

14.1%

19.9%

46.7%

52.2%

24.2%23.6%

Jobs

Good

Bad

23.1%

10.3%

10.8%

13.8%

42%

51.8%

34.9%

13.3%

Transit

Good

Bad

8.5%

12.2%

28.2%

23.4%

27.7% 49.7%

31.8%

18.4%


Good

Bad

13.1%

5.3%

14.7%

34.9%

32%54.5%

24.6%21%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

33

Good

Bad

17.8%

10.3%

18.7%

21.5%

31.8%

47.1%

26.9%26%

Transit

Ward 7

Cleanliness

Good

Bad

10.7%

16.5%

23.3%

14.6%

35%

61%

13%26%

Health

Good

Bad

8.7%

13.3%

27.9%

15.8%

34.4%

37.6%

19.4%

42.9%


Good

Bad

37.9%

10.4%

4.6%9.2%

37.9%

40.5%48.1%

11.4%

Education

Good

Bad

16.6%

9.1%

11.2%

18.5%

44.5%

40.2%

22.5%

37.3%

Internet

Good

Bad

11.5%3.7%

13.5%

35.5%

35.9%

47.6%

13.8%

38.6%

Social Services

Good

Bad

27.3%

28.1%

6.6%6.6%

31.4%

39.8%44.2%

15.9%

Housing

Good

Bad

28.6%

24.2%

14%

4.6%

28.6%

29.8%

53.7%

16.4%

Public Safety

Good

Bad

20.2%

13.5%

10.1%

14.6%

41.6%

59.6%

25.8%14.6%

General Outlook

Good

Bad

14.5%

9.4%

9.5%

19.4%

47.1%

43.3%

22.8%33.8%

Jobs

Good

Bad

32.9%

12.6%

7.8%

10.2%

36.5%

42.1%41.6%

16.3%


Good

Bad

16.8%

3.7%

7.4%

41.8%

30.7%43.2%

29.6%27.2%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

34

Ward 8

Cleanliness

Good

Bad

12.5%

14.8%

25%

18.2%

29.5%

56.3%

18.4%25.3%

Health

Good

Bad6.1%

16.2%

29%

17.6%

31.3%

34.8%

18.9%

46.3%


Good

Bad

39.2%

11.7%

5.3%9.2%

34.6%

41.8%48.8%

9.3%

Education

Good

Bad

13.9%

8.1%

13.6%

20.1%

44.3%

39.4%

18.8%

41.8%

Internet

Good

Bad

8.9%3.2%

13.7%

36.5%

37.7%46%

9.7%

44.3%

Social Services

Good

Bad

36.9%

21.4%

10.7%1.9%

29.1%

35.3%46.1%

18.6%

Housing

Good

Bad

33.7%

24.4%

10.4%

4.7%

26.7%

29.3%

56.1%

14.5%

Public Safety

Good

Bad

10.8%

21.6%

8.1%

20.3%

39.2%

55.4%

21.6%23%

General Outlook

Good

Bad

15.1%

10.2%

11.2%

17.7%

45.7%

44.4%

23%32.6%

Jobs

Good

Bad

34.1%

11.9%

7.5%

9.7%

36.8%

38.9%43.2%

17.9%

Transit

Good

Bad

17.6%

15.4%

25.3%

13.2%

28.6%

47.3%

26.4%26.4%


Good

Bad

14.1%

3.4%

7.4%

42.4%

32.7%

42%32.7%

25.3%

More Aware

Less Aware Same

Getting Better

Staying the Same

Getting Worse

Tenure Profiles

36

Like any city, Washington, DC is filled with both lifelong residents and short-term residents. In addition, relative to other cities, DC is home to a sizeable transient population due to the prevalence of organizations addressing public policy issue – the federal government, advocacy organizations, lobbying firms, and related employers. These employers tend to attract new residents who turn over with some regularity. Meanwhile, DC has a large community of long-term and lifelong residents. The Talking Transition team wanted to collect responses from all of these residents.

Survey outreach was successful in reaching residents who have lived here for a short period of time, those who have lived here long-term, and those who have lived here their entire lives. Of all survey respondents, 15% have lived in Washington, DC for fewer than three years, 30% have been residents between four and fifteen years, and 55% have lived in the District for more than fifteen years. Unfortunately, demographic data about residential tenure in Washington, DC is sparse, making a comparison with the Talking Transition sample difficult to assess. In comparison to the data collected during the Talking Transition effort in New York City, though, the data collected and described in this report aligns roughly with the NYC residential tenure data. In the NYC project, 9% of respondents had lived in the city for fewer than three years, 39% had been residents between four and fifteen years, and 52% had been residents for more than fifteen years.

As in the previous pages, the following pages will detail responses to various issue categories. However, instead of providing a Ward-by-Ward analysis, the responses will be discussed in terms of how they change across “tenure group” – the length of time a person has lived in the District. The Talking Transition team found that responses varied by tenure group in a statistically significant way on five issues: general outlook, police-community relations, housing, health, and Congressional representation. The subsequent pages detail how the length of time a resident has lived in Washington, DC related to these issues, both in terms of how they believed the issue was doing at the time, and whether they thought it was getting better, staying the same, or getting worse.

37

General Outlook

Residents who have lived in the District of Columbia for more than fifteen years tended to express a more negative sentiment when asked about their ability to live the lives they want. They also believed that things were getting worse at a greater rate. DC Residents who have recently moved to the city tended to respond much less negatively, and stated that things were “good” or “slightly good” at a significantly higher rate (40.1%) than those who have been residents for more than fifteen years (31.9%).

9.3%

20.4%

11.2%

21.4%

14%

24.3%7.5%9%

9.1%

18.1%16.6%

11.5%

22%27.9%

20.5%23.6%

20.4%25.7%

43%

51.6%

42.8%

55%

44.9%

50%

Recent Transplant

Recent Transplant

Longtime Resident

Longtime Resident

Lifelong Resident

Lifelong Resident

Bad Slightly Bad

Okay

Slightly Good

Good

Getting Worse Staying the Same

Getting Better

N =8,034MoE = +/- 2.7%

N = 7,896 MoE = +/- 1.5%

Things are currently… And they are…

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

38

Housing

Washingtonians shared an overwhelmingly negative outlook on housing affordability and quality. However, unlike trends seen among tenure groups on other issues, lifelong residents did not express the strongest sentiment here. When it comes to housing, residents who have called Washington, DC home for four to fifteen years expressed the most negative sentiments about housing – both in terms of its current state, and how the issue was worsening.

24%

48.9%

24.4%

54.4%

28.5%

52.8%

24%26.1%

21%

17.1% 17.3%14.3%

6.7%12.6%

5.8%

12.5%

5.9%

12.7%

28.2%

38.6%

26.4%

33%

30.4%

34.5%

Recent Transplant

Recent Transplant

Longtime Resident

Longtime Resident

Lifelong Resident

Lifelong Resident

Bad Slightly Bad

Okay

Slightly Good

Good

N =8,080MoE = +/- 2.4%

N = 7,976 MoE = +/- 1.2%


4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7


Getting Better

39


Lifelong DC residents tended to have a much more negative view of police-community relations, and they tended to think things were getting worse at a greater rate than did shorter-term residents. Overall, DC residents had an unfavorable view of police-community relations, but that negative sentiment was not quite as pronounced among those who have lived in DC for fifteen or fewer years.

17.1%

29.6%

16.5%

29.2%27.4%

35%

9.3% 10.8%

8.5%

10.9%12.3%

9.3%

14.3% 13.4%15.3%12.1%12.5% 10.7%

48.4%

57%

45.1%

58.7%42.3%

54.3%

Recent Transplant

Recent Transplant

Longtime Resident

Longtime Resident

Lifelong Resident

Lifelong Resident

Bad Slightly Bad

Okay

Slightly Good

Good


Getting Better

N =7,428MoE = +/- 2.9%

N = 7,124MoE = +/- 1.5%


4

3

1 5

2

6 7

8

40

Health

Washingtonians had a very positive outlook on health-related issues; however, this positivity was most pronounced among residents who had lived in the District for between four and fifteen years. They were the most likely to believe that things were good and that they were getting better, while lifelong residents were most likely to think that things were okay and staying the same.

4.5%

18.9%

3.2%

17.1%

5.6%

15.8%

13.4%13.1%

11.3%

29.4%

32.9%

29.8%

21.2%

40.1%

23.5%

44.2%

20.7%

42.3%

31.5%

41%

27.3%

38.7%

32.6%

41.9%

Recent Transplant

Recent Transplant

Longtime Resident

Longtime Resident

Lifelong Resident

Lifelong Resident

Bad Slightly Bad

Okay

Slightly Good

Good

N =7,428MoE = +/- 2.9%

N = 7,124MoE = +/- 1.5%


4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7


Getting Better

41


Overall, Washingtonians were well aware that they do not have a voting member of Congress. Unsurprisingly, residents who have lived here a greater length of time believed that more people were aware of this than do recent transplants. Lifelong Washingtonians also tended to see the most improvement on this issue – they believed, at higher rates, that people were more aware about DC’s lack of Congressional representation than they had once been.

14.4%

24.2%

13.2%

22.5%

12.7%

21.5%

4.7% 6.3%4%

13.1%15%

10.2%

35.1%

25.3%

36%

22.6%

42.1%

28.5%

32.7%

50.6%

29.5%

54.9%

31%

50%

Recent Transplant

Recent Transplant

Longtime Resident

Longtime Resident

Lifelong Resident

Lifelong Resident

Not aware at all Not aware

Not that aware

Aware

Well aware

Less aware The same

More aware

N =7,596MoE = +/- 2.8%

N = 7,302 MoE = +/- 1.4%

Residents of DC are… They are becoming…

4

3

1 5

2

6

8

7

Appendix: Complete Talking Transition Survey Questions

43

In my neighborhood, access to grocery stores is…

In DC, affordable housing options are…

Good X Okay X Bad I don’t know


Getting better Staying the same Getting worse I don’t know


First, we would love to know a little bit about you:

On the next page, you will be asked a series of questions about Washington DC. Please circle one response per question. They will look very similar to the examples below.

Thank you for participating in the Talking Transition survey! Your input is incredibly valuable to use as we take what we learn from you and turn it into a report for Mayor-elect Bowser.

What’s your home Zip Code? Did you vote in the 2014 mayoral election?

In what year were you born? With which gender do you identify?

How long have you lived in DC?

Which of the following best represents your racial or ethnic heritage? (Please select one)

We’d like to send updates about the results of this survey. What’s your email address or cell phone number? This information will be used solely by DC Vote, and will never be sold or given to any third party. Don’t worry: you can unsubscribe from updates at any time.

Yes No

Female Male Transgender Other

A few years (less than 3 years) A long time (3-15 years) A very long time (more than 15 years) Not a DC resident

Asian or Pacific Islander African Diaspora Black or African American Hispanic or Latino White/Caucasian Other

44

In my neighborhood, public schools are…



In my neighborhood, my ability to afford the kind of home I want is…

In my neighborhood, my ability to lead the kind of life I want…

In my neighborhood, people are well aware that DC does not have voting members of Congress.

In DC, my ability to find a job that pays enough for me to stay in DC is…

In DC, access to healthcare is…



Yes, well aware X Not that aware X Not aware at all I don’t know





Yes, they are more aware They are about the same No, people are less aware I don’t know



45

In my neighborhood, healthy food options are…



In my neighborhood, housing affordability is…

In my neighborhood, Internet access is...

In my neighborhood, police-community relations are…

In my neighborhood, Metro service is…

In DC, charter schools are…











46

In my neighborhood, after-school and childcare options are…



In my neighborhood, street cleanliness and trash pick up services are…

In my neighborhood, recycling pick-up services are...

In my neighborhood, senior citizen services are…

In my neighborhood, my personal safety is…

In DC, programs to reduce homelessness are…











47

In DC, immigrant services are…



In DC, access to reproductive health services is…

In my neighborhood, the quality of available housing is…

In DC, programs to reduce poverty are…

In my neighborhood, public buses are…









Sponsored byOpen Society Foundation

Prepared byHR&A Advisors, Inc.

Survey Design byHR&A Advisors, Inc.

Talking Transition PartnersNational Institute for Civil Discourse Urban Institute DC Working Families DC Vote HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Graphic Design byNeil Donnelly

data project - dc vote · titled “why bother asking? the limited value of self-reported vote...

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