data-model assimilation in ecology history, present, and future yiqi luo university of oklahoma
TRANSCRIPT
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Data-Model Assimilation in Ecology
History, present, and future
Yiqi Luo
University of Oklahoma
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Outline
1. Historical Perspective
2. Present opportunities
3. Future prospects
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Historical Perspective
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Process thinking
Data-model Assimilation
Synthesis and
predictionInformation contained in
data
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Approaches to scientific research
Experiment (observation) Model (Theory)
Data Processes thinking
Theory delineates possibilities
Empirical studies discriminate the actualities
Robert May 1981
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Approaches to scientific research
Experiment Model – Theory
Data Processes thinkingSimple model
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Simple ecological models (1800s-1950s)
1. Growth modelsLogistic growth equation – Pierre Verhulst 1838
2. Competition model – Lotka-Volterra model 1925,19263. Predation model
MeritsGeneralizations that sum up many measurements of attribute and, within limits, can be used for predictions.
WeaknessNo much information on mechanisms or processes
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Approaches to scientific research
Experiment Model – Theory
Data Processes thinkingSimple model
Statistic analysis
Probability
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Statistical analysis (1600s-)
1654 – Pascal developed mathematics of probability1805 – A-M Legendre – Least square method1877-1889 – F. Galton – regression and correlation1919 – R.A. Fisher – ANOVA1960s- Ecology literature
Analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data.
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Approaches to scientific research
Experiment Model – Theory
Data Processes thinkingSimple model
Statistic analysis
Systems analysis
Probability
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Systems analysis
1. First described by Heraclitus in 6th century BC
2. Active research tools in 1930s-40s3. Used in ecology in 1950s–60s by Odum,
Watt, and many others.
Holistic analysis on structure and behavior of a system as a whole.
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Approaches to scientific research
Experiment Model – Theory
Data Processes thinkingSimple model
Statistic analysis
Systems analysis
Simulation model
Probability
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Simulation model(1960s- present)
1. Forrester, J.W. 1961 Industry Dynamics2. De Wit in Netherlands, 1960s – 90s3. Applications in ecology 1960s – pres4. Example: CENTURY
Uses1. Synthesis and integration of data 2. Predicting the behavior of ecosystems3. Hypothesis generation for study design4. Policy making.
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Simulation model (cont.)
Challenges
• Low confidence on model output
• Model validation and testing against data
• Transparency and amenability to analysis.
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Approaches to scientific research
Experiment Model – Theory
Data ProcessesthinkingSimple
model
Statistic analysis
Systems analysis
Simulation model
Data-model assimilation
Probability
Baysian analysis
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Parameter estimates from
literature
Model prediction
Simulation modeling
Simulation model
Data-model fusion
Multiple Datasets
Model predictions
Inversemodeling
Forwardmodeling
Inverse model
Simulation (forward)
model
Simulation model vs. data-model assimilation
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Techniques of Optimization in Data-model Assimilation
Stochastic inversion
1. Bayesian inversion – Thomas Beyes (1701 – 1761)2. Markov Chain Monte Carlo – Metropolis-Hastings
(1950s)3. Simulated annealing (Kirkpatrick et al. 1983)4. Genetic algorithms (Goldberg 1989)
Deterministic inversion
1. Steepest descending2. Newton method –Isaac Newton (1711)3. Newton-Gauss method4. Levenburg-Marquardt algorithm (1944, 1963)
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Use of both process thinking and information contained in data towards a global synthesis.
1. Parameter estimation2. Test of model structure3. Uncertainty analysis 4. Evaluation of sampling strategies 5. Forecasting
Potential Uses of the Data-model
fusion
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Present Opportunities
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A worldwide network with over 400 tower sites operating on a long-term and continuous basis, supplemented with data on site vegetation, soil, hydrologic, and meteorological characteristics at the tower sites.
FLUXNET
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A worldwide network with over 100 manipulative experimental sites to study impacts of global change factors on ecosystem processes.
TERACC
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Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network
LTER Network established in 1980, has 26 sites, and involves more than 1800 scientists and students investigating ecological processes over long temporal and broad spatial scales.
Synthesis across sites is one of the major challenges for LTER
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NEON
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Transformational research for a data-rich era
Characteristics Data-poor era data-rich era
Activities Data collection Data processingMajor effort Measurements Theory development and test Informatics Spreadsheet Eco-informaticsObjectives Discovery ForecastingMotives Curiosity-driven Decision makingService to society Long-term Real-time
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Future prospects
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TheoryReal-time data strings
ecological models
Data-model fusion
Eco-informatics
Ecological forecasting
NEON and other sensor networks
Decision making
Resource management
Preparation for catastrophe
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Future research
1. Eco-informatics is not only about acquisition, analysis and synthesis, and dissemination of data and metadata but also include model assimilation to generate data products.
2. Streamline real-time data collection, QA/QC, and data-model assimilation and data products.
3. Test theory for model development.
4. Support decision making processes
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Summery
1. Data and model are two foundational approaches to scientific inquiry about natural world.
2. Data-model assimilation combines the bests from both approaches
3. As we enter a data-rich era, data-model assimilation becomes an essential tool of ecological research.
4. Data-model assimilation ultimately help ecological forecasting to best serve the society