© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2016

The importance of end-use data for policy

Elie Bellevrat

13 December 2016

© OECD/IEA 2016

World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by scenario

Energy efficiency is a key abatement measure in the New Policies and the 450 Scenario

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2020 2030 2040

450 Scenario

Current Policies Scenario New Policies Scenario

Gt

End-use efficiency

Fuel & technology switching

Renewables

Nuclear and CCS

Activity effect

Supply efficiency

17.9 Gt

7.4 Gt

Current energy efficiency policies leave large potentials untapped towards the 2°C target

© OECD/IEA 2016

Share of global final energy consumption covered by mandatory energy efficiency regulation

Global mandatory energy efficiency regulation more than doubled over the past decade

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Mapping current energy efficiency policies is an obvious first step

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Tracking energy efficiency progress, what does this mean?

Benchmarking current energy efficiency performance levels

Monitoring energy efficiency improvements over time

Key policy-related benefits of tracking energy efficiency progress:

Understand why some countries perform better than others

Identify and characterize the best performing policies

Share useful information and on best practices among policy-makers, within and across countries

Adjust design of policies to improve their effectiveness, strengthen policies that do not deliver

Assess the remaining gaps to wider objectives (security of supply, climate change)

How are on-going efforts leveraged by tracking energy efficiency progress?

© OECD/IEA 2016

Change in global energy-related CO2 emissions by driver

Improved energy intensity has significantly slowed growth in CO2 emissions in recent years

-1 000

-500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CO2 intensity

Energy intensity

Economic growth

Total change

Mt

CO

2

Tracking energy intensity evolution at macro-level is a necessary but not sufficient step

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Sector

Indicator (Level*) Coverage Energy data Activity data

Residential

L2: Space heating energy consumption per floor area (heated)

All heating systems Total space heating energy consumption

Total floor area

L2: Cooking energy consumption per dwelling

All cooking devices Total cooking energy consumption Total number of dwellings

L3: Energy consumption per appliance unit

By appliance type Energy consumption for all appliances of type A

Number of appliances of type A

Services L2: Space cooling energy consumption per floor area cooled

All cooling systems Total space cooling energy consumption

Total floor area cooled

L3: Lighting energy consumption per unit of activity

By service category Lighting energy consumption for service category A

Unit activity of service category A

L3: Other equipment energy consumption per unit of activity

By service category Other equipment energy consumption for service category A

Unit activity of service category A

Industry L2: Energy consumption per unit of physical output

Sub-sector Total sub-sectoral energy consumption

Sub-sectoral physical output

Transport L3: Passenger transport energy consumption per passenger-kilometre

By mode / passenger vehicle type

Energy consumption of passenger transport by mode / vehicle type A

Number of pkm of passenger mode / vehicle type A

L3: Freight transport energy consumption per tonne-kilometre

By freight mode / vehicle type

Energy consumption of freight transport by freight mode / vehicle type B

Number of tkm of freight mode / vehicle type B

Selected IEA recommended indicators, by sector

Source : IEA (EEI) 2014 * Levels in the IEA energy indicators pyramid : L2 (Level 2), L3 (Level 3)

Robust energy efficiency indicators require going much beyond energy balances

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Some policies include MRV provisions by design, or reveal useful information to policy-makers and experts

Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme in India

White Certificate schemes in several European countries

Which in turn can be used to improve energy efficiency policies, through better design (scope, targets, allocations, etc.)

Energy efficiency policies

End-use and sub-sectors data

Imp

rovem

ent Im

pro

vem

ent

Positive feedback loop between energy policies implementation and improved data collection

© OECD/IEA 2016

Global industrial electricity consumption by motor efficiency class in the New Policies Scenario

Motor electricity use doubles, but 60% of use in 2040 comes from IE3 motors or better

2

4

6

10

12

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

No standard IE1

IE2

IE3

Above IE3

8

Tho

usa

nd

TW

h

End-use data are also useful for forward looking analyses on energy efficiency…

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Efficiency improvements in industrial electric motor-driven systems in 2040 compared with today

Most of the energy efficiency potential in industrial electric motor-driven lies beyond motors themselves

More efficient motors

Install variable speed drive

More efficient end-use device

Other system-wide measures

New Policies Scenario

10% 20% 30% 40%

More efficient motors

Install variable speed drive

More efficient end-use device

Other system-wide measures

Improvement compared with today

450 Scenario

10% 20% 30% 40% Improvement compared with today

… and help tailor policy recommendations for the various sectors and end-uses

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Cumulative world energy sector investment by sector & scenario, 2015-2040

Measuring energy efficiency investments poses additional methodological challenges as well as data requirements

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CPS NPS 450

Trill

ion

do

llars

(2

01

4)

Fuel supply Power supply End-use efficiency CPS NPS 450 CPS NPS 450

Biofuels Coal Natural gas Oil

T&D Renewables Nuclear Fossil fuels

Buildings Transport Industry

Eventually end-use data help assessing the investment challenge in front of us

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Large datasets are needed to track energy efficiency progress over time and compare countries

Those data are also needed for other analytical purposes, such as modelling (energy savings, investments, etc.)

… which in turn may substantially improve policy frameworks

There remains potential to go steps farther in terms of end-use data level (up to very technological one) and data quality

Many initiatives to collect and organize data already exist, now more should be done to share and streamline information

Sharing methodologies and data worldwide is also key to reinforce trust and confidence between countries

Conclusion: “Better data for Better policies”