data-driven strategic enrollment management committees... · the sources of data available to...

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Data-Driven StrategicEnrollment Management

Session 1: Enrollment Management Research 101

Kathy Kurz, Vice PresidentScannell & Kurz, Inc.

June 12, 2007www.scannellkurz.com

www.scannellkurz.com 2

Agenda

IntroductionStrategic Planning Model –where/how does enrollment management research fit in?Conclusion

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Goal of the Session

To provide an understanding of the sources of data available to understand and manage enrollments.


What is Enrollment Management?

Enrollment management is a process, one that brings together often disparate functions having to do with recruiting, funding, tracking, retaining, and replacing students as they move toward, within, and away from our institutions.

(Source: Boston College, Bridge Magazine, Fall 1976)

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What is Strategic Enrollment Management?

It begins with an understanding of external and internal trends, in order to anticipate and respond to changes in a manner that will create a sustainable market advantage.


Why is Research Important to Strategic Enrollment Management?

Keeps us focused on meeting institutional mission and goalsProvides information to most effectively deploy limited resourcesEducates us on who to recruit and howEmpowers us to maintain a steady financial futurePrepares us to respond to changing market conditions and student retention challenges

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Environment

Forecast

Problems &Constraints

Goals ProgramPlanning

Facilities&

Funding

Planning

Implementation

Strategic Planning Model

Organization&

Staffing

CurrentPosition

Evaluation

Source: Frank B. Campanella, Professor of Finance, Boston College


Strategic Planning Model -Environment

Areas of Interest to Enrollment Managers

CompetitionGovernmentEconomyDemography (customer base)

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Competition

You need to know national trends in higher education pricing, financial aid, etc.


College Board – “Trends in …”Reports

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Trends in Student Aid, 2006

4-Yr Public2-Yr Public Private Nonprofit Institutions

Source: The College Board

For-Profit Institutions

32.4%

38.9%

38.5%

42.8%

38.6%

33.6%

42.9%

36.6%

34.7%

46.7%

16.3%

17.2%

19.2%

15.9%

17.7%

8.6%

6.6%

5.7%

1%

6.1%

Parent Loans (PLUS)

Unsubsidized Stafford

Subsidized Stafford

Campus-Based

Pell Grants

Federal Aid Funds by Type of Institution, 2004-05


Average Tuition DiscountPercentages for Full-Time Freshmen(10-Yr Participants)

**Full-time freshman enrollment greater than or equal to 850

Source: NACUBO Institutional Aid Survey Executive Summary – 2005 – Preliminary Results

*LT < $25,000 HT ≥ $25,000

Institutional Type

Number of Respondents

Fall 1996

Fall 2001

Fall 2003

Fall 2004

Fall 2005

Small Colleges, 130 36.8% 40.9% 42.3% 42.3% 42.7%Lower Tuition*

Small Colleges, 60 36.2% 37.3% 37.8% 37.1% 38.1%Higher Tuition*

Large Colleges & Universities ** 43 28.6% 29.5% 31.5% 31.1% 31.5%

All Institutions 233 35.1% 37.9% 39.2% 38.9% 39.5%

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Competition

Even more important, you need to follow your competitors’ trends.First, how do you identify your competitors?


Sample Competition by Overlap Test Takers

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

+418+203

-7-227+203+78

+164+371+217+50

-135

SAT TAKERS Change since 2005

Source: The College Board: Enrollment Planning Service, Executive Summary

Competitor Volume OvlpYour Univ. 21640

1 A. Univ. 50640 97442 B. Univ. 34708 92023 C. Univ. 18045 52244 D. Univ. 19849 41445 E. Univ. 16291 39256 F. Univ. 12797 32087 G. Univ. 14596 24548 H. Univ. 15324 22399 I. Univ. 9937 2134

10 J. Univ. 8209 2054

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www.scannellkurz.com 15Source: ACT

ACT Enrollment Information Service – Class Profile

Number of ACT Score Reports Sent to Your Institution & to Competing Institutions

Institution Name City ST

Total Score Rpts

Choice 1

X University AB 7068 1747

M State University AB 2883 1081W State University AB 2136 574Central University AB 2085 551O University AB 2000 500Western University AB 1568 277


Source: The College Board

Admitted Student Questionnaire Sample Results

# of Cross Apps

# of Cross Admits

Our College

Listed College

A. Univ. 283 194 32 36B. Univ. 275 179 36 47C. Univ. 274 198 26 40D. Univ. 210 56 3 18E. Univ. 206 34 1 30F. Univ. 196 69 3 38G. Univ. 166 150 18 44

# of Cross Admits Enrolled by:

Overlap with Other Colleges

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National Student Clearinghouse –StudentTracker

Identify the competition for:Accepted students who declined your offerEnrolled students who transferred elsewhere

Source: www.studentclearinghouse.org


Competition

Second, how does your institution measure up to your competition in:

Accept/Yield ratesSAT/ACT scoresTuition and feesInstitutional grant aidEndowment per studentRetention/Graduation rates

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Institution Name TuitionAccept Rate

Yield Rate

Grad Rate

Middle 50% ACT

Endowment Per Student

SAMPLE COLLEGE $20,810 63% 23% 70% 23-29 $76,368PEER 1 $14,642 88% 39% 68% 22-28 $47,287PEER 2 $30,400 39% 29% 82% 29-33 $330,281PEER 3 $30,350 45% 20% 73% 29-33 $51,038PEER 4 $19,490 82% 31% 69% 23-30 $64,882PEER 5 $31,420 22% 43% 94% 29-33 $209,864PEER 6 $18,699 41% 33% 73% 24-28 $11,029PEER 7 $30,110 47% 38% 86% N/A $112,532PEER 8 $25,888 58% 33% 84% 25-30 $69,734PEER 9 $26,175 31% 40% 83% 25-30 $121,924PEER 10 $26,874 67% 31% 79% 25-29 $142,667PEER 11 $30,920 35% 39% 86% 28-33 $179,211

National Center Education Statistics http://nces.ed.gov/ipedspas/


50%

25%

96%

75%

Federal grants State/Localgrants

Institutionalgrants

Loans

To Calculate Your Competitors’Discount Rates

Discount Rate = % of students receiving aid X average institutional grant / costs

2004-2005 Academic Year

Source: IPEDS – COOL http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/cool/

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$3,775$2,400

$5,500

$8,995

Federal grants State/Localgrants

Institutionalgrants

Loans



2004-2005 Academic Year



2006-07 2005-06 2004-05$23,000 $22,000 $20,000

$500 $500 $450

Estimated Student Expenses

Detailed expensesTutition and feesBooks and supplies

Undergraduate academic year prices



Result:

Discount Rate = .96 X $8,995 / $20,000

Discount Rate = 43.2%


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Institution NameTuition & fees

(2004-05)% aid applicants

(2004-05)Pell grant avg

(2004-05)

FT Freshman retention rate

(2004-05)6 yr Grad rate

(2004-05)

Sample College $20,073 88 $2,488 87 69

Peer 1 $30,720 44 $2,683 97 93

Peer 2 $17,555 46 $2,415 88 76

Peer 3 $29,322 46 $2,637 95 86

Peer 4 $24,408 64 $2,471 92 84

Peer 5 $19,518 67 $2,672 82 71

Peer 6 $24,274 55 $2,854 89 80

Peer 7 $13,944 54 $2,470 84 69

Peer 8 $25,580 48 $2,561 88 82

Peer 9 $31,210 51 $2,337 88 73

Peer 10 $29,990 48 $2,640 95 88

Peer 11 $28,310 39 $2,569 95 88

Source: www.economicdiversity.org


Sample Benchmark Table

A. Univ. $12,970 12% 88% 810 – 1040 Comp Coll–Bach's (N)B. Univ. $19,236 29% 67% 1020 – 1210 Universities–Master's (N)C. Univ. $19,720 37% 70% 1000 – 1210 National Univ, 3rd tierYour School $20,260 20% 65% 790 – 1050 Univ–Master's (N), 4th tierD. Univ. $23,130 28% 67% 1050 – 1230 National Univ, 3rd tierE. Univ. $23,144 41% 67% 910 – 1150 Universities–Master's (N)

College/UniversityTuition &

Fees 2006-07

Discount Rate

2004-05

Accept Rate

2005-06

Middle 50% SAT

2005-06

US News Ranking - 2006 (America's Best Colleges)

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Government

Federal PoliciesChanges in federal financial aid programs (e.g., Academic Competitiveness Grant, SMART, etc.)Reauthorization of the Higher Education Act (HEA)

State PoliciesState financial aid programsPolicies of neighboring states


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Economy

Projected changes in Median Household IncomeUnemployment LevelsLabor Market Trends by Sector

All available by geographic region


US Census Bureau

2003-04 2004-05Median Income

Median Income

United States $45,893 $46,071Alabama $38,695 $37,502Alaska $55,957 $56,398

State

Source: www.census.gov

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Type of College Attended Varies by Income Level

Public 4-YrPublic 2-Yr Private 4-Yr

Source: College Board, Trends in Higher Education Series 2005

Institutional Choice by Income Level, 1999-2000

40%

35%

32%

21%

33%

39%

40%

43%

41%

41%

21%

25%

25%

38%

27%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

< $30,000

$30 - $59,999

$60 - $89,999

$90,000 +

All

Percentage Enrolled

Fam

ily I

nco

me


Bureau of Labor Statisticswww.bls.gov

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Postsecondary Education Opportunitywww.postsecondary.org


Demography

Characteristics of your customer baseGenderEthnicitySocioeconomicGeographicAcademic QualityNumber of Area High School Graduates. . . and other characteristics important to the mission of the school

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Source: www.collegeboard.com


WICHE – Knocking at the College Door, December 2003

Race/ Ethnicity Total

Amer In./ AK Native

Asian/ Pacific Islander

Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic

White, non-Hispanic

Public Total

Non-Public Total

Public & NonPublic Total

2006-07 152155 535 12164 22267 18284 98904 152503 25004 1775082008-09 153500 584 13091 22485 19571 97769 154323 25341 1796642010-11 148334 726 13802 21493 19538 92774 149287 24757 1740442012-13 141614 675 14703 19212 19099 87925 141506 23847 1653532014-15 137264 618 18406 19726 17637 80877 135010 22453 1574632016-17 135725 715 17921 17984 18435 80669 134004 22305 156309

Public by Race/Ethnicity

NY Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates (Projected)

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WICHE – Knocking at the College Door, December 2003

Total Graduates

# % # % # % # %2006-07 26468 17.06% 44741 28.84% 53613 34.55% 30339 19.55% 1551612007-08 26867 16.94% 45591 28.75% 54947 34.65% 31169 19.66% 1585742008-09 26777 17.04% 45173 28.75% 54296 34.55% 30905 19.67% 1571512009-10 26128 16.89% 44232 28.60% 53514 34.60% 30788 19.91% 1546622010-11 25626 16.81% 43399 28.46% 52836 34.64% 30614 20.08% 1524752011-12 24951 16.70% 42377 28.36% 51808 34.68% 30266 20.26% 1494022012-13 23885 16.48% 40749 28.11% 50391 34.76% 29932 20.65% 144957

Median Family Income Category

$0-$20000$20001- $50000

$50001- $100000 $100001+

NY Public High School Graduates By Median Family Income


Source: www.higheredinfo.org

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Environment in Summary

There is plenty of data. The keys to transforming data into knowledge are:

Identifying the right indicators for your institutionProperly organizing and summarizing themDistributing them to decision makers

Environment

Forecast



Facilities&

Funding

Planning

Implementation


Organization&

Staffing

CurrentPosition

Evaluation


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Strategic Planning Model –Current Position

Areas of Interest to Enrollment Managers

Trends in inquiries, applicants, admits, and enrollees by subpopulationStudent attitudes and interestsTrends in quality profile, financial aid expenditures, diversity, and other class attributesCohort retention trends by subpopulation


Trends in Inquiries, Applicants, Admits, and Enrollees by Subpopulation

Student system dataHistorical yield rates (e.g., app rate, admit rate, enroll rate) by various student characteristics/subpopulations

Admitted Student Questionnaire (ASQ)Market research (internal)

Surveys of prospective students

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Student Attitudes and Interests

Cooperative Institutional Research Program (CIRP) – Freshman SurveyNational Survey of Student Engagement (NSSE)Student Satisfaction Inventory (SSI)Focus Groups


Trends in Quality Profile, Financial Aid Expenditures, Diversity, and Other Class Attributes

Student System DataSAT/ACTRank/HS GPADiscount ratesEthnic/geographic/socio-economic diversity

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Cohort Retention Trends by Subpopulation

Student System DataSophomore retention rates of new students (i.e., first-time at your college) by student characteristics

Your First College Year (YFCY) Survey from the Higher Education Research Institute (HERI)


Challenges with Internal Data

Data not captured or not keptOld legacy system – difficult to extract dataLack of executive interest or understanding of the importance of dataNo system “power user” in the enrollment management unitFiles from prior years were erasedData integrityLow response rates on surveyFiles not merged

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Data Not Captured in System

Solution:Know specifically the data you want to capture from which sourcesBegin discussion on campus with appropriate people to collect specific data routinely


Old Legacy System – Difficult to Extract Data

Solution:Upgrade your systemFind someone on campus who has expertise to extract dataCreate a data warehouse

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Lack of Executive Interest or Understanding of the Importance of Data

Solution:Need to make the case for data-driven decision making and resource allocation to the senior teamConduct a cost-benefit analysis exercise to display the power of data


No System “Power User” in the Enrollment Management Unit

Solution:Provide training for staff member(s) to become a power userMay need to make use of available resources in other departments like IT, Math/Statistics, or Psychology

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Files from Prior Years Were Erased

Solution:Find out if any “point in time” files (a.k.a., census files) are retrievable from other officesOtherwise, set up a database to gather this data on an annual basis going forward


Data Integrity

Solution:Beware of making biased assumptions!May need to wait until the next cycle to get good dataCorrect prior mistakes and create protocols to ensure proper and accurate data entry

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Low Response Rates on Surveys

Solution:Proceed with caution when drawing conclusionsConsider improving the survey instrument and research methodologyExperiment with different data collection methods (e.g., phone interview vs. mail vs. Web surveys)Outsource to a data collection agency


Files Not Merged

Solution:Bring together Admissions, Financial Aid, Registration and Records, and IT to develop a plan for merging each others’dataOnce these files are merged, a whole new world of data analysis is possible!

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Data Analysis Continuum

No DataStrategic UseOf Data

Historical DataCaptured &Retained ButFiles Not Merged

Data FilesMerged ButStrategic QuestionsNot Asked

AggregateData Analysis Segmented

Data Analysis

(group data)

RegressionAnalysis

(individual data)

Modeling& Simulations

Environment

Forecast



Facilities&

Funding

Planning

Implementation


Organization&

Staffing

CurrentPosition

Evaluation


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Problems/Constraints and Goals

Must be quantitative and based on environmental and internal trends.


Problems/Constraints and Goals –Example

Problem: You are a Private college in the southeast with a 71% in-state enrollment. You would like to increase your out-of-state enrollment. But, contiguous states have expanded scholarship programs for their residents.

What data do you need to gather and analyze?

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Problems/Constraints and Goals –Internal Data

Inqs AppsApply

% Inqs AppsApply

% Inqs AppsApply

%In-State 11,459 630 5.5% 12,263 667 5.4% 12,545 725 5.8%Contiguous States 13,593 403 3.0% 12,458 350 2.8% 11,956 266 2.2%Other Southeast 5,455 123 2.3% 5,426 110 2.0% 5,562 119 2.1%Northeast 1,823 24 1.3% 1,766 15 0.8% 1,849 22 1.2%Midwest 2,016 16 0.8% 2,233 19 0.9% 2,154 12 0.6%Other US 2,562 9 0.4% 2,548 11 0.4% 2,575 10 0.4%

2003 2004 2005


Problems/Constraints and Goals – Goal

Return inquiries and conversion rates from contiguous states to high water mark level.

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Environment

Forecast



Facilities&

Funding

Planning

Implementation


Organization&

Staffing

CurrentPosition

Evaluation



Program Planning – Example

Profile applicants from contiguous states whom you have lost:

% receiving institutional aid:Average institutional award:Quality profile (avg. SAT) :Majors: Business

Performing Arts

2003 vs. 200575% 91%

$5,000 $5,8001090 1000300 200103 66

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Program Planning – ExampleAnalyze Yield Rates for Applicants from Contiguous

States by SubpopulationNeed> $10k 15/30 (50%) 20/30 (67%)$5k-10k 5/30 (17%) 15/30 (50%) 10/30 (33%)$1-5k 2/30 ( 7%) 2/30 (7%) 10/30 (33 %)No Aid App 0/26 (0%)

No Grant $1 - $2k $2k-$4k $4k-$6k >$6k


Program Planning – Example

Guarantee a $5,000 grant to all applicants from contiguous states.

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Environment

Forecast



Facilities&

Funding

Planning

Implementation


Organization&

Staffing

CurrentPosition

Evaluation



Conclusion

Through effective use of data, enrollment managers can:

Anticipate environmental changes that could impact enrollment outcomes or that could give the institution a competitive advantageIdentify reasons for negative (or positive) trends in enrollment outcomesDevelop targeted intervention strategies to address the trendsEstimate the likely cost/benefits of those initiativesEvaluate the impact of new initiatives and adapt as needed

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Conclusion

The data are available to guide strategic enrollment management efforts – get started by:

Familiarizing yourself with those sources, both external and internalMaking sure admissions, financial aid, and registration’s data are merged for analysesCarving out resources for an enrollment management research position – or grow your own


Conclusion

The remaining Web conferences in this series will focus in detail on data-driven Enrollment Management in:

Admissions (Session II)Financial Aid (Session III)Retention (Session IV)

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71-B Monroe Avenue

Pittsford, NY 14534

585.381.1120 (p)

585.381.2383 (f)

[email protected]

www.scannellkurz.com

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