10/10/2016

Day Ahead CEE TGE Pow Cal 17 TTF Gas Cal 17 Coal ARA M+1 ICE EUA Dec 16 Dated Brent

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COALARA

CO2 // EUA OIL

Information contained in this document are based on sources which are considered reliable.

Dashboard for Central Europe

Week Market Trends (03-07.10.2016)

ELECTRICITY

NATURAL GAS Day Ahead Prices

Day Ahead Prices (Baseload) Term Prices Cal+1 (Baseload)

Term Prices Cal+1

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and under N°13000311 with ORIAS - The Single Register for Intermediaries, Insurance, Bank and Finance in France.

-5

15

35

55

75

95

€/M

Wh

Poland Czech Republic Romania

Geremany Hungary Scandinavia

14,00

19,00

24,00

29,00

34,00

39,00

€/M

Wh

Germany Cal+1 Scandinavia Cal+1

Poland Cal+1 Czech Republic Cal+1

10

11

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€/M

Wh

TTF CEGH TGE NCG

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14

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18

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€/M

Wh

TTF Cal+1 CEGH Cal+1 TGE Cal+1 NCG Cal+1

3035404550556065707580

$/m

t

ARA M+1 RB M+1 Newcastle M+1

Appalachian M+1 South China M +1 Russia Baltic M+1

3,5

4

4,5

5

5,5

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€/t

EU

A

EUA Dec 16 EUA Dec 17

35,00

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45,00

50,00

55,00

60,00

65,00

70,00

75,00

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85,00

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50

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60

65

70

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€/m

t

$/m

t

ARA Q+1 ($) ARA Cal+1 ($) ARA M+1 ($) ARA M+1 (€)

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

250

300

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450

500

550

$/b

bl (

Bre

nt)

$/m

t (G

aso

il)

Gasoil 0,1 % Brent

10/10/2016

TEMPERATURE (Daily averages)

38,99 76,60 16,39 49,54 455,50 5,86

37,12 73,25 15,45 48,76 444,38 5,21

38,99 76,05 15;96 49,89 455,50 5,69

TGE(PL) OTE(CZ) OPCOM(RO) EPEX Spot(DE) HUPEX(HU) NORD POOL36,82 39,09 41,97 29,76 40,21 24,2042,21 40,49 42,06 33,13 55,75 28,28

14,64% 3,60% 0,23% 11,35% 38,65% 16,85%

Power Base

Cal 17 TGE (€/MWh)

Coal API2 - ARA

Month ahead ($/t)

TTF

Cal17 (€/MWh)

Dated Brent ($/b)

Barges FOB ARAGasoil 0,1% ($/t)

CO2 EUA Dec-

16

EUA (€/t)

Dashboard for Central Europe

and under N°13000311 with ORIAS - The Single Register for Intermediaries, Insurance, Bank and Finance.

Last week MinLast closing Friday

Week -1

Last week

Change

Day-ahead weekly averages

Indar Energy will not be liable for any use which may be made of the information contained therein.

Information contained in this document are based on sources which are considered reliable.

20, rue du 4 septembre – 75002 – Paris – tél: +33 (0)1.55.34.36.05 – fax: +33 (0)1.55.34.36.04 – email: contact@indarenergy.com

Last week Max

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Exchange rate €/$ and €/PLN

Electricity: Beginning of heating period and higher demand for electricity pushed spot power prices up during last week. Weekly average of day-ahead prices was in the range of 28,28€/MWh (+16,85% compared to previous week) at NordPool and 55,75 €/MWh in Hungary (+38,65%). Future power prices rose sharply in line with strong increase of coal, gas and CO2 prices. On the German market Cal 17 contract rose during last week by 5,88 % and on Thursday (06.10) hit its highest price this year at 31,59 €/MWh. At the same time Cal 17 in Poland rose only by +1,65% as electricity prices in Poland are not linked to increase of coal prices on the European Market. It should be noticed that during last week the spread between contracts Cal 17 Poland-Germany dropped to their lowest level this year and hit 5,95 €/MWh, while in the beginning of the year was even two times higher!

Natural gas: European day ahead prices rose sharply last week, influenced by firm oil and LNG prices and higher demand (temperatures were slightly below seasonal averages). NCG, TTF and CEGH rose in a weekly average respectively by +10,6%, +8,6% and +10,6% . For this week, a colder weather outlook in Europe should put pressure on prices. Nevertheless, Russian flows into Europe have continued to be stable and higher than previous gas years. Flows into Europe for '15-16' gas year were on average 280 million cum/d, 22,6% higher than 14' -15' gas year, despite Ukraine's decision to stop imports from Russia. Future prices were also supported by higher oil prices and the decrease of gas production from Groningen's gas field since 1st of October. TTF Cal.17 contract rose in average by 3,7%, closing on Friday at 15,96 €/MWh.

Oil: Despite last OPEC signals in favour of cut of oil production, oil prices went up only by 1,25 $/bbl during the week with Dated Brent prices at 49, 89 $/bbl on Friday. Market players remained sceptical about the ability of OPEC members to overcome the difference between them and decide on a significant reduction of oil production. However Saudis have given evidence of their willingness to push prices up. First by publishing higher sales prices and then this weekend, cancelling a sales auctions of crude destined to Asia which could put pressure on the market. The following OPEC’s meeting and further discussions are scheduled for 30th of November in Vienna.

Coal: Coal prices rose last week being supported by few factors. In Colombia hurricane” Mathew” and related flood halted operations on the key coal rail route which reduced coal export to Europe. In Germany low river water level hampered coal transport in the country which resulted in less vessels with coal. Meanwhile demand for coal in China continued to grow. ARA month ahead and ARA cal 17 ended the week respectively at 76,05 $/mt and 65,29 $/mt and rose by +7,5% and+4,5% compared to closing from previous week.

CO2: Carbon prices had a strong variation during last week, due to increase of coal and electricity prices. Dec 16 and Dec 17 contracts rose on average from 4,80 €/t EUA to 5,51 €/t EUA (+14,9%) and from 4,83 €/t EUA to 5,54 €/t EUA (+14,71%). On Thursday session contract Dec. 16 has even touched the threshold of 6 €/t EUA. Weekly traded volumes rose by 3,3% and hit 87,4 million tonnes.

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€/$ €/PLN