darren swanson, iisd presentation to universidad del pacifico facultad de economía november 25 th...
TRANSCRIPT
Darren Swanson, iisd
Presentation to
UNIVERSIDAD DEL PACIFICO Facultad de Economía
November 25th 2008
POLICYMAKING IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
Building the Adaptive Capacity of People and Policies
“for the first time in history, humankind has the capacity to create far more information than anyone can absorb, to foster far greater interdependency than anyone can manage, and to accelerate change far faster than anyone’s ability to keep pace.”
Peter Senge
on creating a learning organization (1990)
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm
Projected surface temperature change
Source: IPCC, 2007
( C)
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
[Government of Canada 2007]
Policymaking in a Changing Climate
Focus of this presentation
1. The capacity of people to adapt; AND
2. The capacity of policy to be adaptive
Canada and IndiaAgriculture and Water Resources Management
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
Source: IWMI, 2004
Canada and IndiaAgriculture and Water Resources Management
Is Vulnerability reduced andResilience enhanced or
Maintained?
PolicyInstruments
EconomicRegulatory
Direct ExpendituresInstitutional
Economic ResourcesInformation & Skills
TechnologyInfrastructure
InstitutionsEquity
Smit et al. 2001
Adaptive Policy Mechanisms
For anticipated conditions
For unanticipated conditions
Exposure(weather and non-weather
related)
Shocks Stresses
Adaptive Capacity of Policy
Adaptive Capacity of
People
Short-term Coping
Measures
Long-term Adaptation Measures
Adaptive Capacity of People and Policies
I. Adaptive Capacity of
People
Canadian Prairies: A long history of drought
• 1906
• 1936-38 – Quarter million people
displaced
• 1961
• 1976-77
• 1980
• 1984-85
• 1988
• 2001-2003 – “the worst ever?” – $3.6 B Ag /$5.8 B GDP– 41,000 jobs lost
• Benefits:– warmer and longer growing seasons and a warmer
winter– Increasing temperature will be positive for crop growth
and yield, up to certain thresholds.
• Negative impacts:– from changes in timing of precipitation– Increased risk of droughts and associated pests– Increased risk of excessive moisture
Potential Impacts on Agriculture in Canada
• Climate change is expected to disproportionately impact developing countries whose economies are closely tied to climate-sensitive sectors, like agriculture and which are already facing multiple stresses due to population growth, urbanization, industrialization, and globalization.
• In the tropics and subtropics, where some crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance and where rain-fed agriculture dominates, yields are likely to decrease for even small changes in climate, which could lead to an increased risk of inadequate food supply.
IndiaVulnerability to Climate Change
Source: Kelkar (2006), http://www.iisd.org/pdf/2006/climate_designing_policies_chap3.pdf
• Districts in western Rajasthan, southern Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, northern Andhra Pradesh, and southern Bihar are highly vulnerable to climate change in the context of economic globalization.
• Numerous physical and socio-economic factors come into play in enhancing or constraining the current capacity of farmers to cope with adverse changes.– e.g. cropping patterns, crop
diversification, and shifts to drought-/salt-resistant varieties
– e.g. ownership of assets, access to services, and infrastructural support
Figure 3.4 Vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate changeSource TERI (2003): In Kelkar (2006)
IndiaVulnerability to Climate Change
Determinant Explanation
Economic resources
Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacityLack of financial resources limits adaptation options
Technology Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation optionsLess technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop and/or implement technological adaptations
Information and skills
Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacityGreater access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation
Infrastructure Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity, since it provides more optionsCharacteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity
Institutions Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climate-related risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacityPolicies and regulations have constrain or enhance adaptive capacity
Equity Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacityBoth availability of, and entitlement to, resources is important
Determinants of adaptive capacity (from Smit et al., 2001).
Smit, B., Pilifosova, O., Burton I., Challenger B., Huq S., Klein R.J.T. and Yohe, G. (2001): Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity; in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, (ed.) J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A.
Economic Resources
Technology Information, skillsand management Infrastructure
Data Sources
Census of Agriculture (2001), Census of Population (2001), study by Statistics Canada on Rural Canada (StatsCan 2004)
Institutions and Networks
Equity
AdaptiveCapacity
Diversity ofEmploymentopportunities
Income generation Relative to summary
expenses
Income generationRelative to capital
investment
Off-farmearnings
Technological exposure
Computer technology
Water accesstechnology
Technologicalflexibility
Human ResourcesManagement
Soil resourceManagement
practices
EnterpriseInformation
Management
EnvironmentalManagement
practices
Transportation network
Surface waterresource
Soil resource
Groundwaterresource
Access to agriEducation institutions
Email use
Social capital (viaInformal networks)
Internet use
Distribution of Income in the
Agri. population
Access to healthAnd social services
Employment opportunities
Distribution ofIncome in general
population
Inde
xD
eter
min
ants
Asp
ects
Assessing Adaptive Capacity: Canada
Source: http://www.iisd.org/climate/vulnerability/resilience.asp
II. The Capacity of Policies to be Adaptive
From the Summary:
“When situations are characterized by variability, uncertainty and change, conventional planning scenarios provide little guidance regarding future needs and conditions.”
“…clear need for frameworks that are "adaptive" - that reflect uncertainties and can respond and adapt as contexts change or unforeseen problems emerge.”
“Specific solutions are less important than the existence of processes and frameworks that enable solutions to be identified and implemented as specific constraints and contexts change.”
Lessons from Canada’s Historic ‘Crow Rate’ Grain Transport Rate
• a regulated tariff that subsidized transportation of grain from the Canadian prairies to ports for export.
• engraved into the Railway Act in 1925, and did not change for the next 60 years.
Lessons• A largely unanticipated outcome of the Crow Rate’s
persistence was serious under-investment in grain handling and rail transportation infrastructure
• Shortcomings brought into stark view when major grain sales to Russia and China in the 1960s almost caused the system to collapse.
• The near-failure of the grain transportation system catalyzed a flurry of public commissions and inquiries during the period 1960-82 to investigate and reform the system.
• The failure to consider the effects of rising inflation on the performance of the fixe Crow Rate would prove to be one of the main culprits.
Policy Failures
• Externalities (market failure mechanisms from micro-economic theory)
• Implementation failures (insufficient resources, legitimacy)
• Inaccurate diagnosis of the problem
• Others……
• Experience demonstrates that policies crafted to operate within a certain range of conditions are often faced with unexpected challenges outside of that range. The result is that many policies have unintended impacts and don’t accomplish their goals.
Complexity, dynamics, uncertainty, surprise, …..
• Today’s policy-maker has a tough job.
• Reality …. world is more complex than ever—highly interconnected, owing to advances in communication and transportation; and highly dynamic, owing to the scale of impact of our collective actions.
• Policies that cannot perform effectively under dynamic and uncertain conditions run the risk of not achieving their intended purpose, and becoming a hindrance to the ability of individuals, communities and businesses to cope with—and adapt to—change.
• Far from serving the public good, such policies may actually get in the way
Towards smarter policy:Leverage Complex Adaptive
Systems Thinking
Business Leadership and the New Science.
Margaret Wheatly
IT Sector Harnessing Complexity
Axelrod and Cohen
Forest Management
The Invisible Wand
James Ruitenbeek
Healthcare Complexity Science in Practice
Mayo Clinic
International Development
Complex Systems Theory and Development Practice
S. Rihani
Ecosystem Management
Panarchy
Buzz Holling
http://www.iisd.org/climate/vulnerability/policy_insights.asp
Adaptive Policies
Adaptive Policy
Ability of policy toadapt to anticipated
conditions
(based on a good understanding of cause and effect)
(based on a good understanding of system dynamics and complexity)
Ability of policy toadapt to unanticipated
conditions
http://www.iisd.org/climate/vulnerability/policy_insights.asp
What is integrated and forward-looking analysis? By identifying key factors that affect policy performance and identifying scenarios for how these factors might evolve in the future, policies can be made robust to a range of anticipated conditions, and indicators can be developed to help trigger important policy adjustments when needed.
What is multi-stakeholder deliberation? Multi-stakeholder deliberation is a collective and collaborative public effort to examine an issue from different points of view prior to taking a decision. Deliberative processes strengthen policy design by building recognition of common values, shared commitment and emerging issues, and by providing a comprehensive understanding of causal relationships.
What is automatic policy adjustment? Some of the inherent variability in socio-economic and ecologic conditions under which a policy must operate can be anticipated, and monitoring can help trigger important policy adjustments to keep the policy functioning well.
Dealing With Anticipated Conditions
Minimum Support Price Policy in India
Integrated and forward-looking analysis
• Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) – takes into account important factors, such as cost of production,
changes in input prices, and trends in market prices, in announcing the MSP each year.
– carries out state-specific analyses for the cost of production in respect of various commodities.
• This is done through consultations with the state governments. – After a meeting of the state Chief Ministers, the MSP/procurement
prices are declared.
• Cost of production for the same crops varies between regions, across farms within the same region, and for different producers.
Weather-Indexed Insurance in India
Automatic policy adjustment
• quick payouts triggered by independently-monitored weather indices (rather than farm loss sampling)
• can improve recovery times, thereby enhancing coping capacity.
• The automatic adjustment feature provides a simple mechanism for managing insurer risk and determining farmer eligibility for benefit payments, while also passing along incentives for farmers to adjust to long-term change by providing appropriate signals calculated on the basis of actuarial risk.
Dealing with Unanticipated ConditionsWhat is self-organization and social networking? Ensuring that policies do not undermine existing social capital; creating forums that enable social networking; facilitating the sharing of good practices; and removing barriers to self-organization, all strengthen the ability of stakeholders to respond to unanticipated events in a variety of innovative ways. What is decentralization of decision-making? Decentralizing the authority and responsibility for decision-making to the lowest effective and accountable unit of governance, whether existing or newly created, can increase the capacity of a policy to perform successfully when confronted with unforeseen events.What is variation? Given the complexity of most policy settings, implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes. Diversity of responses also forms a common risk-management approach, facilitating the ability to perform efficiently in the face of unanticipated conditions. What are formal policy review and continuous learning? Regular review, even when the policy is performing well, and the use of well-designed pilots throughout the life of the policy to test assumptions related to performance, can help address emerging issues and trigger important policy adjustments.
Manitoba Conservation Districts (CDs)
Decentralization of decision-making:
• CD boards comprise local stakeholders who are able to make spending and programming decisions based on local needs and changing circumstances.
• While most CDs are based on municipal boundaries, one CD with watershed boundaries was particularly effective at managing the drain licensing process, at task normally managed at the provincial level.
1. Understand
a. intended goalsb. key factors affecting performance
and their interactionsc. plausible futures of key factorsd. policy options and indicators of
successe. what adjustments can be
triggered to ensure performance
Tasks for the Adaptive Policy-maker
2. Strengthen capacity
a. of policy to respond to opportunity b. for policy innovation
Tools for the Adaptive Policy-maker
3. Monitor
a. indicators of performance compared to objectives
b. indicators of key factors and thresholds for triggering policy adjustments
c. stakeholder feedbackd. new information on emerging issues
Outcomes of Adaptive Policy
Integrated and forward-looking analysis
Multi-stakeholder deliberation
Automatic adjustment
Self-organization and social networking
Decentralization of decision-making
Variation
Formal policy review and continuous
learning
Policy that is robust to a range of anticipated conditions
Policy that adapts to anticipated conditions
Broader participation and commitment to “making it work”
Enhanced local resilience to unforeseen events
Experience gained in a variety of policy approaches
Policy that is ready for what lies around the corner
4. Improve
a. make necessary policy adjustments to ensure performance
International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) http://www.iisd.org/climate/vulnerability/policy.asp
Policymaking in a Changing Climate
1. The capacity of people to adapt; AND
2. The capacity of policy to be adaptive
For more information:
Darren Swanson
http://www.iisd.org/climate/vulnerability/resilience.asp
http://www.iisd.org/climate/vulnerability/policy.asp