danger degree project
DESCRIPTION
Danger Degree Project. Assessing the Threat of Winter Events. Amanda Graning General Forecaster NWS WFO Duluth, Minnesota. Winter Storm Conference November 9 th , 2009. Danger Degree Project. Weather Forecasting Office Duluth, MN. Motivation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Danger Degree ProjectAssessing the Threat of Winter Events
Amanda GraningGeneral Forecaster
NWS WFO Duluth, Minnesota
Winter Storm ConferenceNovember 9th, 2009
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Weather Forecasting Office Duluth, MN
There are situations where the physical science can be perfect, but its utility is greatly reduced where there is not adequate attention to the societal aspects
Motivation
An effort to create a historical reference for use in assessing the threat of snowfall cases that may or may not fall into the National Weather Service (NWS) defined criteria for winter weather advisories or warnings
Goal
Danger Degree Project
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Weather Forecasting Office Duluth, MN
In order to classify winter events we will develop a "checklist" of factors that are given values.
These values are added up to result in a quantitative "score" or Danger Degree (like a threat level) of that storm.
Theory: higher the score the greater the Danger
Danger Degree Project
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2009 April – North Shore Ice Storm National Disaster
2008 April 6-7th Blizzard 2007 March 2nd – Blizzard 2005 Extreme Cold
Temperatures -30 F to -54 F 119 hours below zero
2001 April - Ice Storm with 80% of Duluth without power
High Impact Events
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Specific Location Duluth, MN International Falls, MN
Event Criteria Snowfall of >2” Looked at Daily Climate Report
(LCDs)
Weather & Societal Factors METARs
Sum Each Section
The Checklist WFO Duluth, MN
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2006 October 11-13thDLH
3
2
6
5
14
First >2 of winter
SN began 400 am
Mixed Phases
Gusts 30-35 kt for 24 hrs
Began: 36 F & Rain
SN ended for 4 hrs - then continued.
Snow Total = 3.5” 2.3” in 24 hr period.
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2009: 4 2008: 10 2007: 8 2006: 18 2005: 18 2004: 8 2003: 6 2002: 10 2001: 11 2000: 9 1999: 10 1998: 16 1997: 11
2009: 12 2008: 10 2007: 8 2006: 18 2005: 18 2004: 8 2003: 16 2002: 3 2001: 11 2000: 9 1999: 10 1998: 9 1997: 12
International Falls, MN105 Events
Duluth, MN146 Events
Danger Degree Project
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Danger Degree Project
Warning Events
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Danger Degree Project
Advisory Events
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Danger Degree Project
No Headline
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91%
60%
Danger Degree Project
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Danger Degree Project
What was the Impact?
Several Warnings with Danger Degree Values < 5 Low potential Impact
Events with Danger Degree > 14 with No Headline High Potential Impact