Deltacommissaris

Dutch Dialogues: Resilience for Hampton Roads

Dale Morris

Senior Economist and Coordinator for Water

and Climate

Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington, D.C.

dale.morris@minbuza.nl

27-4-20171

Rising Seas: Vulnerability and Occurrence

Population

•In 2010, 44% of world population lived in coastal areas (UN).

• 65% world GDP in coastal areas

•In 2010, 123 million -- 39% of US population -- live in coastal counties. Between 1970 to 2010,

the population in these counties increased 40%, and an additional 8% (10m) by 2020 (NOAA).

• 45% US GDP in coastal counties

SLR is measured

Subsidence is measured

Coastal erosion is measured

Deltacommissaris

Extreme weather: “We all pay, one way or another.” Since 1980, $1 billion disasters in the U.S. have tripled. More people, wealth, capital in coastal areas.

…from 1980 to 2011, weather-related catastrophes cost…an average of more than $34 billion a year.

Losses…are rising in a long-term trend consistent with models of climate change.

Katrina $150 b, Sandy $60 b, Ike $40 b,

Isaac $2.9 b, Matthew $ 10 b

Houston Tax Day 2016 $1.2 - $1.9 b

Memorial Day 2015 $1 b

San Antonio / Austin 2015 $1 b

Charleston / SC 2015 $2 b

Baton Rouge $9 b ??

Ellicott City $25 m

Hermine (Dare Cty, NC) $2.6 m

Extreme weather trend is clear…

…and SLR will exacerbate impacts in coastal areas

Water Mgmt and SLR in NL

59% of land is at or below sea level

70% of people live in, and 70% of GDP is

produced in, flood-prone areas

Adaptation easier: public will, and past flood

investments help w/ challenge

IPCC SLR mid-level projections:

--8 inches by 2050

--33 inches by 2100

Deltacommissaris

About the Dutch Dialogues (DDs)DDs are a process to assess and plan for current and future risks: climate, social, economic, water.

DD teams are multi-discipline, cross-cultural: 1 + 1 = 3. Silos forbidden…

Extensive preparation (data, viewpoints, visions, programs, local willingness) to assess if a DD team canmake a difference.

Jointly discover: facts, possibilities, methods, and multiple-benefit solutions, and share those withpolitical leaders.

DDs main goals are to aggregate the expertise of multiple disciplines, scales and stakeholders to problem-solve actionable challenges.

Dutch saying: “First, we have to get all noses pointed in the same direction.” Set forth a roadmap and“vibe” for ongoing action.

DDs in New Orleans, St Louis, Los Angeles, Miami, Tidewater.

Mini DD Hampton

Resilient NOLA

Layered Landscape

Katwijk

National Gov’t preferred option:

--straigten the (red) line of protection

--coastal dune heightening (+10 - + 12 ft)

--beach widening

--sand is primary tool

Local Gov’t had concerns:

--beachfront views, and access, for

Homeowners, tourists and retail

--”separation” of town and sea

--redevelopment

--land value

Sea dike in the dune. Increased protection. 660 hidden beachfront parking spaces. Better beach access. Better beachfront retail.

Scheveningen Blvd

heavily used, iconic, tourism+ primary coastal protection for The Hague

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Strengthen primary coastal defense, improve pedestrian and public transit, don’tdisrupt commerce, maintain historic aesthetics: $400 million (4 miles)

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Mega Nourishments: The Sand Engine

21m cubic meters (366 acres)

Aug-Oct 2011

20 miles “reach” and 20 yr design life

Mother nature distributes sand to

foreshore / dune

>4$ per cubic meter sand

2014

2016

Coastal Marsh Restoration: Prime Hook (Delaware)

Wave / erosion attenuation

Salt marsh restoration

Habitat (fish, waterfowl)

Recreation

See: 2017 Louisiana Coastal

Masterplan for aggressive plan

--50 year, $50 billion…

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Deltacommissaris

Mirabeau / Gentilly Resilience District

Mirabeau, “doing God’s work”

Mirabeau is first large ($141 min)project in Gentilly Resilience District

Museum Quarter R’dam Parking garage / storage

Water Squares

4/27/2017

47

Closing thoughts• Urban drainage is undersized for extreme precipitation and SLR-induced drainage constraints. Uncertainty

over duration of future weather events and future rate of SLR requires robust and multipurpose investments.

• Green infrastructure works well to reduce risk in many places, and provides ancillary ecosystem services andeconomic benefits.

• Suppliers supply least-costly solutions, are not incentivized to think outside the box. (Exact opposite of Dutch approach).

• Procuring agencies straightjacketed, policy / regulatory conflicts and silos (Fed-Fed, Fed-state) impair implementation. No one dares to excel.

• Liability worries make multi-purpose/multi-goal projects improbable. Do we need the dual mandate -- egSafety and Spatial Quality -- in the law / authorizations (like the Dutch)?

• Hampton Roads needs the legal authority to regionally plan and coordinate SLR actions.

• VA State Gov’t should empower one state agency to lead state-level SLR activities and coordinate/streamline state-level adaptation efforts. “Until someone is in charge, no one is in charge.”

• Funding. Pay me now or pay me later…