daily outlook outlook vec 28... · stimulus any further, just as two fresh surveys pointed to an...

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 1

Research Department 28 January 2019

DAILY OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS |

CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

GLOBAL MARKETS Wall Street indexes rose and bond yields followed stocks higher on Friday after U.S.

President Donald Trump announced an agreement to end the longest ever U.S. government shutdown and as investors reacted to corporate earnings reports.

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

German business morale fell for the fifth consecutive month in January, a survey showed on Friday, signalling a downturn in Europe's largest economy where company executives have become pessimistic about future business for the first time since 2012.

European Central Bank policymakers promised on Friday to tread carefully in removing stimulus any further, just as two fresh surveys pointed to an even bigger-than-projected slowdown in the euro zone's growth.

British retail sales stagnated in January following a sharp fall in December, according to an industry survey on Friday that underlined tough trading conditions for retailers ahead of Brexit.

President Donald Trump said on Friday he has reached a tentative agreement with U.S. lawmakers for three weeks in stop-gap funding that would end a partial U.S. government shutdown now in its 35th day, with a senior Democratic aide saying money the president demanded for a border wall is not included.

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GLOBAL MARKETS U.S. & Global Markets – Wall Street indexes rose and bond yields followed stocks higher on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement to end the longest ever U.S. government shutdown and as investors reacted to corporate earnings reports. But the dollar index, which fell from a three-week high hit on Thursday, held onto losses after the news on the shutdown as traders eyed next week's Federal Reserve meeting for insight on whether policy makers will continue to take a cautious tone on the interest rate path this year. On Friday afternoon, on the 35th day of a record shutdown that has left hundreds of thousands of federal workers missing two paychecks, Trump announced a tentative deal with lawmakers to reopen the government temporarily. Markets were choppy around the news as investors hoped the reopening would take some pressure off the economy but questioned whether a permanent government funding deal could be reached by the Feb. 15 deadline. "It does get federal workers paid, lets them collect their paychecks, so it takes that pressure off of them," so it "should be a benefit to consumer confidence and consumer spending," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. "But three weeks from now we are going to be back in the same situation, really without a resolution with two hard-line views." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.96 points, or 0.75 percent, to 24,737.2, the S&P 500 gained 22.43 points, or 0.85 percent, to 2,664.76, and the Nasdaq Composite added 91.40 points, or 1.29 percent, to 7,164.86. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.61 percent and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1.05 percent. Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas said: "Earnings have also been a positive component although the number of beats is lower than the last two quarters and expectations were lowered." However, not all investors were optimistic as some turned to gold, often seen as safe-haven bet. Spot gold added 1.8 percent to $1,302.99 an ounce, helped by the dollar decline. In currency, the euro rebounded against the dollar after falling to its lowest level in six weeks Thursday when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did not alter a downbeat assessment on the euro zone's economy. The euro was up 0.94 percent to $1.1411. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six other currencies, fell 0.87 percent. According to the latest Reuters polls of hundreds of economists from around the world, a synchronized global economic slowdown is under way and any escalation in the U.S.-China trade war would trigger a sharper downturn. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States on Jan. 30 and 31 for the next round of trade negotiations with Washington. Sterling was last trading at $1.3209, up 1.11 percent on the day after The Sun newspaper reported on Thursday that Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party has privately decided to back Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal next week if it includes a clear time limit to the Irish backstop. In U.S. Treasuries, 10-year yields bounced from a one-week low as looming Treasury supply next week and caution ahead of the

Fed's policy meeting and the government's payrolls report added upward pressure. U.S. Treasury 10-year notes last fell 11/32 in price to yield 2.7513 percent, from 2.712 percent late on Thursday. Oil prices settled higher as political turmoil in Venezuela threatened to reduce supply, but fresh data on surging U.S. fuel stocks and global economic woes weighed on sentiment. Brent crude futures settled at $61.64 a barrel, up 55 cents, or 0.90 percent. U.S. crude oil futures settled at $53.69 a barrel, up 56 cents, or 1.05 pct. (Source Reuters, Research – Elli)

GLOBAL ECONOMIES German - German business morale fell for the fifth consecutive month in January, a survey showed on Friday, signalling a downturn in Europe's largest economy where company executives have become pessimistic about future business for the first time since 2012. The decline in morale stems from weaker demand for German goods and services in China, the euro zone and emerging markets, from transatlantic trade tensions and also growing uncertainty linked to Britain's looming departure from the European Union. "Disquiet is growing among German businesses," said Clemens Fuest, president of the Munich-based Ifo economic institute. "The German economy is experiencing a downturn." Ifo said its business climate index fell to 99.1, the lowest level since February 2016. The German economy grew at a slower pace last year than in 2017 and sources told Reuters on Friday that the government had cut its growth forecast for this year to 1.0 percent from 1.8 percent. "The increasing danger of a hard Brexit has proved to be a mood-killer," Bankhaus Lampe economist Alexander Krueger wrote in a note. "This is mainly a reflection of falling expectations, which is not surprising given it is also the result of global trade disputes." Krueger added that the economy, which is expected to gain impetus from private consumption and increased state spending, was still a long way from experiencing a recession. 'ONE BLACK EYE' But the downturn will continue in the coming months and any improvement will largely hinge on the outcome of Brexit and the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China, both key markets for German exporters. The manufacturing sector started showing signs of weakness last year as the trade tensions between the United States and China escalated. The downward trend in the sector appears to be dragging down the whole economy. The German economy has also suffered from homemade factors such as stricter emission standards that created bottlenecks in new car registrations and low rainfall that hampered fuel deliveries that rely on water channels in Germany. ING Diba economist Carsten Brzeski said that an economic recovery in Germany largely depends on the outcome of Brexit and whether trade tensions dissipate. "In this regard, Brexit is probably the single most threatening risk as a 'no-deal' Brexit would come at the most inconvenient

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES



time for the economy, namely exactly when it should be about to rebound," he added. Britain, the world's fifth biggest economy and the second largest in the EU, is due to leave the EU on March 29 but its deeply divided parliament has yet to agree on the terms of its exit, raising the risk of a disruptive no-deal Brexit. "All in all, we still think that the German economy could get away with one black eye. However, the shield that stronger domestic demand can offer against external risks will be put to a severe test in the coming months," said Brzeski. Euro zone – European Central Bank policymakers promised on Friday to tread carefully in removing stimulus any further, just as two fresh surveys pointed to an even bigger-than-projected slowdown in the euro zone's growth. ECB President Mario Draghi warned on Thursday that a dip in the 19-member euro zone's economy could be deeper and longer than thought even a few weeks ago, comments widely seen as signalling a delay in the bank's first interest rate hike. Indeed, a key German business morale indicator fell for the fifth straight month in January, while the ECB's own survey of professional forecasters pointed to sharply lower growth and inflation. "We remain committed to maintaining interest rates very low, which is good for the economy," French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau told France 2 television on Friday. "Progressively we are withdrawing monetary stimulus ... but it is very progressive and depends on improvement in the economy. We'll take the time it takes," said Villeroy, widely seen as a leading candidate to take over from Draghi when his mandate expires in November. The ECB ended its 2.6 trillion euro ($3 trillion) crisis-era asset purchase scheme last month and said it would keep rates at a record low 'through' the summer, signalling a rate hike late in the year. SLOWDOWN But markets have long given up on such a move, pricing a rise only for mid-2020 as the euro zone economy is suffering its biggest slowdown in more than half a decade, with no recovery in sight. "The slowdown has surprised us ... we have to be very careful to monitor the data," ECB board member Benoit Coeure told Bloomberg television, arguing that the jury was still out on whether this growth dip is temporary. The ECB's quarterly survey, a key element of Thursday's policy deliberations, put growth at 1.5 percent this year, well below a previous projection of 1.8 percent. Inflation, the ECB's primary mandate, is now seen dipping to 1.5 percent and only rising to 1.8 percent in the 'longer' term, suggesting that confidence in the central bank's ability to reach its target of almost 2 percent is dipping. Germany, France and Italy, the euro zone's biggest economies, barely grew last quarter and the Ifo warned that 2019 also started on a weak note. "Disquiet is growing among German businesses," Ifo President Clemens Fuest said in a statement. "The German economy is experiencing a downturn." Economists now widely expect the ECB to push out the timing of the first rate hike by adjusting its interest rate guidance, perhaps as soon as March.

It is also seen providing banks with more long-term loans to roll over previous facilities and shore up confidence in the financial sector. "We could consider the provision liquidity and credit to banks, it's part of our toolbox," Villeroy said later in an interview with Bloomberg TV. U.K – British retail sales stagnated in January following a sharp fall in December, according to an industry survey on Friday that underlined tough trading conditions for retailers ahead of Brexit. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) monthly retail sales balance rose to zero from -13 in December. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of +2. Despite the improvement in January, the survey largely fitted with signs that consumer spending has weakened since mid-2018, when the soccer World Cup and warm weather fuelled expenditure. Brexit has also hit consumer confidence. Despite the limited time left before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, there is no agreement in London on how it should exit the world's biggest trading bloc, and a growing chance of a 'no-deal' exit with no provision to soften the economic shock. The CBI said it saw signs that some wholesalers were stockpiling goods in preparation for a no-deal Brexit. "The High Street has had another challenging month, with retail sales volumes flat and well below average for the time year," CBI economist Rain Newton-Smith said. "Pressures on the retail sector remain high, with consumer spending expected to remain fairly subdued and competition fierce." U.S. – President Donald Trump said on Friday he has reached a tentative agreement with U.S. lawmakers for three weeks in stop-gap funding that would end a partial U.S. government shutdown now in its 35th day, with a senior Democratic aide saying money the president demanded for a border wall is not included. The president had previously insisted on the inclusion of $5.7 billion to help pay for a wall along the vast U.S.-Mexico border in any legislation to fund government agencies. "I am very proud to announce today that we have reached a deal to end the shutdown and reopen the federal government," Trump said in remarks in the White House Rose Garden. "In a short while, I will sign a bill to open our government for three weeks until Feb. 15. I will make sure that all employees receive their back pay very quickly, or as soon as possible," Trump said. With the effects of the shutdown spreading on Friday, Trump said a bipartisan congressional conference committee would meet to come up with a plan for border security. Trump triggered the shutdown, which began on Dec. 22 and idled some 800,000 government employees, with his wall-funding demand but Democrats, who control the House of Representatives, rejected it on the grounds that a wall would be costly, ineffective and immoral. Trump, whose Republicans have a majority in the Senate, has said it is necessary to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking.



The arrangement, which would require passage in the House and Senate and Trump's signature, would leave his request for wall funding for later talks, a House Democratic aide said. The House could pass the measure as soon as later Friday if Republicans agree to hold a vote, the aide said. A Senate Republican aide said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was expected to press for passage of a three-week funding bill on Friday. "We do not need 2,000 miles of concrete wall from sea to shining sea. We never did," Trump said. "We never proposed that. We never wanted that because we have barriers at the border where natural structures are as good as anything that we could build. "Our proposed structures will be in predetermined, high-risk locations that have been specifically identified by the Border Patrol to stop illicit flows of people and drugs," Trump said. FUNDING AT LAST YEAR'S LEVELS The temporary funding bill would extend agency funding at the last fiscal year's levels and would include some money for border security - but not a wall. Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, a senior member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said he wanted to hear what Trump had to say before he would assume there was an iron-clad deal. In one of the many effects of the shutdown, hundreds of flights were grounded or delayed at airports in the New York area and Philadelphia on Friday as more air traffic controllers called in sick. The Federal Aviation Administration issued a ground stop for flights destined for New York's LaGuardia Airport on Friday

morning before lifting it about an hour later. Staff shortages also delayed flights at Newark Liberty International Airport and Philadelphia International Airport, the FAA said. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have been furloughed or, as with some airport workers, required to work without pay. Some federal agencies have reported much higher absence rates among workers as they face an indefinite wait for their next paychecks. The lapse in funding has shuttered about one-quarter of federal agencies, with about 800,000 workers either furloughed or required to work without pay. It is the longest such shutdown in U.S. history. Many employees as well as contractors were turning to unemployment assistance, food banks and other support. Others began seeking new jobs. On Thursday, a bill backed by Trump to end the shutdown by including the $5.7 billion he wants for partial wall funding and a separate bill supported by Democrats to reopen shuttered agencies without such funding did not get the votes required to advance in the 100-member Senate. Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters on Thursday the possibility of legislation that includes a large down payment on a wall, "is not a reasonable agreement." A Washington Post-ABC News opinion poll published on Friday showed public disapproval of Trump has swelled 5 percentage points to 58 percent over three months, with a majority of Americans holding him and congressional Republicans most responsible for the shutdown. The poll found that more than one in five Americans say they have been personally inconvenienced by the shutdown.(Source Reuters, Research – Elli)

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

17-Jan - 21-Jan N/A HK Composite Interest Rate Dec -- 0.78%

Mon/21-Jan-19 07:01 GB Rightmove House Prices MoM Jan 0.4% -- -1.5% 07:01 GB Rightmove House Prices YoY Jan 0.4% -- 0.7% N/A KR Exports 20 Days YoY Jan -- 1.0%

N/A KR Imports 20 Days YoY Jan -- 2.2% 09:00 CN GDP SA QoQ 4Q 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

09:00 CN GDP YoY 4Q 6.4% 6.4% 6.5% 09:00 CN GDP YTD YoY 4Q 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% 09:00 CN Industrial Production YoY Dec 5.7% 5.3% 5.4%

09:00 CN Industrial Production YTD YoY Dec 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 09:00 CN Retail Sales YoY Dec 8.2% 8.1% 8.1% 09:00 CN Retail Sales YTD YoY Dec 9.0% 9.0% 9.1%

09:00 CN Surveyed Jobless Rate Dec 4.9% -- 4.8% 14:00 DE PPI MoM Dec -0.4% -0.1% 0.1%

14:00 DE PPI YoY Dec 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% US Bank Holiday (Martin Luther King Day)

Tue/22-Jan-19 04:00 KR PPI YoY Dec 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 04:30 NZ Performance Services Index Dec 53.0 -- 53.5 53.4

06:00 KR GDP SA QoQ 4Q P 1% 0.6% 0.6% 06:00 KR GDP YoY 4Q P 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 15:30 HK CPI Composite YoY Dec 2.5% 2.3% 2.6%

16:30 GB Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY Nov 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16:30 GB Central Government NCR Dec 18.2b -- 8.4b

16:30 GB Claimant Count Rate Dec 2.8% -- 2.8% 16:30 GB Employment Change 3M/3M Nov 141k 87k 79k

16:30 GB ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Nov 4.0% 4.1% 4.1%

16:30 GB Jobless Claims Change Dec 20.8k -- 21.9k 24.8k 16:30 GB PSNB ex Banking Groups Dec 3.0b 1.9b 7.2b 7.1b 16:30 GB Public Finances (PSNCR) Dec 21.3b -- 4.4b 2.7b

16:30 GB Public Sector Net Borrowing Dec 2.1b 1.1b 6.3b 6.2b 16:30 GB Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY Nov 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%



17:00 DE ZEW Survey Current Situation Jan 27.6 43.3 45.3 17:00 EZ ZEW Survey Expectations Jan -20.9 -- -21

17:00 DE ZEW Survey Expectations Jan -15.0 -18.5 -17.5 20:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Nov -1.4% -1.0% -0.1%

20:30 CA Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Nov -1.0% -0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 22:00 US Existing Home Sales Dec 4.99m 5.27m 5.32m 5.33m 22:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM Dec -6.4% -1.5% 1.9% 2.1%

Wed/23-Jan-19 04:45 NZ CPI QoQ 4Q 0.1% 0.0% 0.9%

04:45 NZ CPI YoY 4Q 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 06:30 AU Westpac Leading Index MoM Dec -0.21% -- -0.09%

06:50 JP Exports YoY Dec -3.8% -1.9% 0.1% 06:50 JP Imports YoY Dec 1.9% 4.0% 12.5% 06:50 JP Trade Balance Dec -¥55.3b -¥35.3b -¥737.3b

06:50 JP Trade Balance Adjusted Dec -¥183.6b -¥290.7b -¥492.2b 10:00 JP BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target Jan-23 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A JP BOJ Outlook Report

10:00 JP BOJ Policy Balance Rate Jan-23 -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 11:30 JP All Industry Activity Index MoM Nov -0.3% -0.4% 1.9% 2.1%

13:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Dec F -18.3% -- -18.3% 18:00 GB CBI Business Optimism Jan -23 -22 -16 18:00 GB CBI Trends Selling Prices Jan 18 11 14

18:00 GB CBI Trends Total Orders Jan -1 4 8 20:30 CA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Nov -0.6% -0.4% 0.0% -0.2% 20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM Nov -0.9% -0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

21:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Nov 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 22:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Jan A -7.9 -6.5 -6.2 -8.3

22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Jan -2 -2 -8

Thu/24-Jan-19 05:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Composite Jan P 51.5 -- 52.9 05:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Mfg Jan P 54.3 -- 54 05:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Services Jan P 51.0 -- 52.7

07:30 AU Employment Change Dec 21.6k 18.0k 37.0k 07:30 AU Full Time Employment Change Dec -3.0k -- -6.4k 07:30 JP Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jan P 50.0 -- 52.6

07:30 AU Part Time Employment Change Dec 24.6k -- 43.4k 07:30 AU Participation Rate Dec 65.6% 65.7% 65.7%

07:30 AU Unemployment Rate Dec 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 08:00 KR BoK 7-Day Repo Rate Jan-24 1.75% 1.75% 1.75% 12:00 JP Coincident Index Nov F 102.9 -- 103

12:00 JP Leading Index CI Nov F 99.1 -- 99.3 15:30 DE Markit Germany Services PMI Jan P 53.1 52.2 51.8

15:30 DE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Jan P 52.1 51.9 51.6 15:30 DE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan P 49.9 51.4 51.5 16:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Jan P 50.7 51.4 51.1

16:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan P 50.5 51.3 51.4 16:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Services PMI Jan P 50.8 51.5 51.2 19:45 EZ ECB Deposit Facility Rate Jan-24 -0.4% -0.4% -0.4%

19:45 EZ ECB Main Refinancing Rate Jan-24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19:45 EZ ECB Marginal Lending Facility Jan-24 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

20:30 US Continuing Claims Jan-12 1713k 1730k 1737k 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-19 199k 218k 212k 21:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Jan P 54.5 -- 54.4

21:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan P 54.9 53.5 53.8 21:45 US Markit US Services PMI Jan P 54.2 54 54.4 22:00 US Leading Index Dec -0.1% -0.1% 0.2%

23:00 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Jan-18 -190k -- -743k 23:00 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jan-18 7970k -750k -2683k

23:00 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Jan-18 -617k 900k 2967k 23:00 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Jan-18 4050k 3000k 7503k 23:00 US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Jan 5 3 3 6

Fri/25-Jan-19 04:00 KR Consumer Confidence Jan 98 95 97

16:00 EZ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 16:00 DE IFO Business Climate Jan 99.1 100.6 101 16:00 DE IFO Current Assessment Jan 104.3 104.2 104.7 104.9

16:00 DE IFO Expectations Jan 94.2 97.0 97.3 16:30 GB UK Finance Loans for Housing Dec 38779 38700 39403 39205

18:00 GB CBI Retailing Reported Sales Jan 0 2 -13 18:00 GB CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales Jan 13 -- 10 20:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Dec P -- --

20:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Dec P -- -- 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders Dec P -- -- 20:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Dec P -- --

22:00 US New Home Sales Dec -- -- 22:00 US New Home Sales MoM Dec -- --



Sat/26-Jan-19 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Jan-25 1059 -- 1050

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

27-Jan - 03-Feb N/A DE Retail Sales MoM Dec -0.2% 1.4% 27-Jan - 03-Feb N/A DE Retail Sales YoY Dec 1.5% 1.1%

Mon/28-Jan-19 All AU Bank Holiday (Australian Day) 06:50 JP PPI Services YoY Dec -- 1.2%

08:30 CN Industrial Profits YoY Dec -- -1.8% 15:30 HK Exports YoY Dec -- -0.8%

15:30 HK Imports YoY Dec -- 0.5% 15:30 HK Trade Balance HKD Dec -- -45.0b

28-Jan - 03-Feb N/A GB Nationwide House PX MoM Jan -- -0.7%

28-Jan - 03-Feb N/A GB Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Jan -- 0.5% 20:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Dec -- 0.22

21:00 EZ ECB's Draghi Speaks at European Parliament Hearing in Brussels

21:30 GB BOE's Carney, Broadbent, Ramsden, Place and Woods Speak.

22:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Jan -2.1 -5.1

Tue/29-Jan-19 04:45 NZ Exports NZD Dec 5.50b 4.94b 04:45 NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD NZD Dec -5787m -5423m

04:45 NZ Trade Balance NZD Dec 175m -861m 07:30 AU NAB Business Conditions Dec -- 11 07:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Dec -- 3

14:00 CH Exports Real MoM Dec -- 1.0% 14:00 CH Imports Real MoM Dec -- -1.5%

20:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Dec -- -- 20:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Dec -- -- 20:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Dec P -- --

21:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Nov -- 0.41%

21:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Nov -- 213.89 21:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Nov -- 5.03%

21:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Nov -- 206.03 21:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Nov -- 5.48% 22:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Jan 126 128.1

22:00 US Conf. Board Expectations Jan -- 99.1 22:00 US Conf. Board Present Situation Jan -- 171.6

Wed/30-Jan-19 04:00 KR Business Survey Manufacturing Feb -- 71

04:00 KR Business Survey Non-Manufacturing Feb -- 72 06:50 JP Retail Sales MoM Dec P -- -1.0% 06:50 JP Retail Trade YoY Dec -- 1.4%

07:30 AU CPI QoQ 4Q 0.4% 0.4% 07:30 AU CPI Trimmed Mean QoQ 4Q 0.4% 0.4% 07:30 AU CPI Trimmed Mean YoY 4Q 1.8% 1.8%

07:30 AU CPI Weighted Median QoQ 4Q 0.5% 0.3% 07:30 AU CPI Weighted Median YoY 4Q 1.7% 1.7%

07:30 AU CPI YoY 4Q 1.7% 1.9% 12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index Jan -- 42.7 14:00 DE GfK Consumer Confidence Feb -- 10.4

15:00 CH KOF Leading Indicator Jan -- 96.3 15:30 HK Retail Sales Value YoY Dec -- 1.4% 15:30 HK Retail Sales Volume YoY Dec -- 1.2%

16:00 CH Credit Suisse Survey Expectations Jan -- -22.2 16:30 GB Mortgage Approvals Dec -- 63.7k

16:30 GB Net Consumer Credit Dec -- 0.9b 16:30 GB Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Dec -- 3.5b 17:00 EZ Business Climate Indicator Jan -- 0.82

17:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Jan F -- -7.9 17:00 EZ Economic Confidence Jan -- 107.3

17:00 EZ Industrial Confidence Jan -- 1.1 17:00 EZ Services Confidence Jan -- 12 20:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Jan P -- 0.3%

20:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Jan P -- 1.7% 20:00 DE CPI MoM Jan P -- 0.1% 20:00 DE CPI YoY Jan P -- 1.7%

20:15 US ADP Employment Change Jan 165k 271k 20:30 US Core PCE QoQ 4Q A -- 1.6%

20:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q A 2.6% 3.4% 20:30 US GDP Price Index 4Q A 1.7% 1.8% 20:30 US Personal Consumption 4Q A -- 3.5%

22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Dec 1.0% -0.7%



22:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Dec -- -7.7% 22:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Jan-25 -- --

22:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Jan-25 -- -- 22:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Jan-25 -- --

22:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Jan-25 -- --

Thu/31-Jan-19 02:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) Jan-30 2.25% 2.25% 02:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Jan-30 2.50% 2.50% 02:00 US Interest Rate on Excess Reserves Jan-31 -- 2.4%

02:30 US Fed Chairman Powell Holds Post-FOMC Press Conference 06:00 KR Industrial Production SA MoM Dec -- -1.7%

06:00 KR Industrial Production YoY Dec -- 0.1% 06:50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions 06:50 JP Industrial Production MoM Dec P -0.5% -1.0%

06:50 JP Industrial Production YoY Dec P -- 1.5% 07:01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Jan -- -14 07:01 GB Lloyds Business Barometer Jan -- 17

07:30 AU Export Price Index QoQ 4Q 2.6% 3.7% 07:30 AU Private Sector Credit MoM Dec 0.3% 0.3%

07:30 AU Private Sector Credit YoY Dec 4.4% 4.4% 08:00 CN Composite PMI Jan -- 52.6 08:00 CN Manufacturing PMI Jan -- 49.4

08:00 CN Non-manufacturing PMI Jan -- 53.8 08:30 JP BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya makes a speech

11:05 JP PM Abe and ex BOJ Deputy Governor Nakaso speak at Daiwa's conf

12:00 JP Construction Orders YoY Dec -- -10.7% 15:00 EZ ECB's Coeure Speaks in Cape Down

15:55 DE Unemployment Change (000's) Jan -- -14k 15:55 DE Unemployment Claims Rate SA Jan -- 5.0%

17:00 EZ GDP SA QoQ 4Q A -- 0.2% 17:00 EZ GDP SA YoY 4Q A -- 1.6% 17:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Dec -- 7.9%

17:15 EZ ECB's Mersch Speaks in Luxembourg 20:30 US Continuing Claims Jan-19 -- -- 20:30 US Employment Cost Index 4Q 0.7% 0.8%

20:30 CA GDP MoM Nov -- 0.3% 20:30 CA GDP YoY Nov -- 2.2%

20:30 CA Industrial Product Price MoM Dec -- -0.8% 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-26 -- -- 20:30 US PCE Core MoM Dec 0.2% 0.1%

20:30 US PCE Core YoY Dec -- 1.9% 20:30 US PCE Deflator MoM Dec -- 0.1%

20:30 US PCE Deflator YoY Dec -- 1.8% 20:30 US Personal Income Dec 0.5% 0.2% 20:30 US Personal Spending Dec 0.3% 0.4%

20:30 US Real Personal Spending Dec -- 0.3% 21:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Jan 60 65.4 22:00 CA CFIB Business Barometer Jan -- 53.6

Fri/01-Feb-19 00:45 CA Speech by Wilkins, Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor

04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index Jan -- 121.9 04:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Jan -- 2.8%

04:30 AU AiG Perf of Mfg Index Jan -- 49.5 05:00 AU CBA Australia PMI Mfg Jan F -- 54.3

06:00 AU CoreLogic House Px MoM Jan -- -1.3% 06:00 KR CPI Core YoY Jan -- 1.3% 06:00 KR CPI MoM Jan -- -0.3%

06:00 KR CPI YoY Jan -- 1.3% 06:30 JP Jobless Rate Dec 2.5% 2.5%

06:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio Dec -- 1.63 07:00 KR Exports YoY Jan -- -1.2% 07:00 KR Imports YoY Jan -- 0.9%

07:00 KR Trade Balance Jan -- $4558m 07:30 JP Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Jan F -- 50 07:30 KR Nikkei South Korea PMI Mfg Jan -- 49.8

01-Feb - 07-Feb N/A JP Official Reserve Assets Jan -- $1271.0b 07:30 AU PPI QoQ 4Q -- 0.8%

07:30 AU PPI YoY 4Q -- 2.1% 08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Mfg Jan -- 49.7 13:45 CH SECO Consumer Confidence Jan -- -6

14:30 CH Retail Sales Real YoY Dec -- -0.5% 15:30 CH PMI Manufacturing Jan -- 57.8 15:55 DE Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Jan F -- --



Source: Bloomberg-Reuters-Forexfactory-DailyFX-Tradingeconomics-FXStreet, Research: @LukmanLoeng, Setiawan, Rizal

16:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan F -- -- 16:30 GB Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Jan -- 54.2

17:00 EZ CPI Core YoY Jan A -- 1.0% 17:00 EZ CPI Estimate YoY Jan -- 1.6%

20:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM Jan 0.3% 0.4% 20:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY Jan -- 3.2% 20:30 US Average Weekly Hours All Employees Jan 34.5 34.5

20:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls Jan 15k 32k 20:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jan 160k 312k 20:30 US Change in Private Payrolls Jan 158k 301k

20:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Jan -- 63.1% 20:30 US Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Jan -- 58k

20:30 US Underemployment Rate Jan -- 7.6% 20:30 US Unemployment Rate Jan 3.8% 3.9% 21:30 CA Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI Jan -- 53.6

21:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Jan F -- -- 22:00 US Construction Spending MoM Dec -- -- 22:00 US ISM Employment Jan -- 56.2

22:00 US ISM Manufacturing Jan 54.1 54.1 22:00 US ISM New Orders Jan -- 51.1

22:00 US ISM Prices Paid Jan -- 54.9 22:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Jan F -- 2.7% 22:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Jan F -- 2.6%

22:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Jan F -- 110 22:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Jan F -- 78.3

22:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Jan F -- 90.7

Sat/02-Feb-19 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Feb-01 -- --



Japan's Nikkei reached a five-week high on Friday as chip-related firms tracked sharp rises by U.S. counterparts, while some investors awaited major events next week for direction. The Nikkei share average rose 1.0 percent to 20,773.56, the highest closing level since Dec. 19. The benchmark index gained 0.5 percent for the week. Investors also sought buying opportunities in small-to-mid sized stocks, with the Mothers market rising 1.7 percent. It was the index's third straight gain of more than 1 percent. Chip-related stocks, which rallied on Thursday after investors took heart from Texas Instruments' and Xilinx Inc's earnings unveiled after Wednesday's U.S. market close, continued to soar as the results were welcomed on Wall Street. "Investors who were already excited about the U.S. chip sector's earnings the day before got even more reassured after they saw how their stocks moved," said Shogo Maekawa, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. Maekawa added that a recovery in the global cyclical chip sector is taken as a silver-lining amid concern about a global economic slowdown. He said that investors will be focus on events next week, especially U.S.-China trade talks U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Thursday that the United States and China are "miles and miles" from resolving trade issues but there is a fair chance the two countries will get a deal. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was somewhat more upbeat, saying the United States and China were "making a lot of progress" in talks, but he did not elaborate. JP Morgan's Maekawa said "The market is cautious especially after comments from Ross." Silicon products maker Sumco Corp jumped 12 percent, Tokyo Electron rallied 4.7 percent, Advantest Corp surged 4.9 percent, while Shin-Estu Chemical soared 4.5 percent. Traders said that the gains in the chip sector lifted sentiment in shares of Apple suppliers as well, with Murata Manufacturing surging 6.1 percent and Alps Alpine adding 5.2 percent. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index, under pressure in recent months after Apple warned of waning smartphone demand, saw its biggest one-day percentage gain since Dec. 26, advancing 5.7 percent. Nissan Motor Co rose 2.5 percent after Renault appointed Michelin boss Jean-Dominique Senard as its new chairman, following the resignation of Carlos Ghosn in the wake of his arrest, which has rocked the French carmaker and its alliance with Nissan. The broader Topix gained 0.9 percent to 1,566.10. South Korea's KOSPI stock index closed up 1.5 percent on Friday, led by chipmakers that rose tracking strength in U.S. chip shares. The Korean won and bond yields also rose. Chipmakers led the Nasdaq's rise on Thursday, as Xilinx Inc and Lam Research Corp reported quarterly results that beat analyst expectations, while Texas Instruments Inc posted better-than-expected profit. Fourth-quarter earnings continued to be generally positive, reassuring investors concerned about U.S.-China trade tensions and sparking a microchip industry stock rally after hours. KOSPI posted its biggest daily gain since Jan. 15, while it rose to a three-month high. For the week, the benchmark index gained 2.5 percent, extending its weekly gain to a third consecutive session,

while it jumped 6.7 percent on a monthly basis, its biggest monthly gain since Jan. 2012. The country's chip giants and heavyweights Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and SK Hynix Inc closed up 4.0 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively. South Korean KOSPI was lifted on surge in U.S. semiconductor shares, said Seo Sang-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, adding that foreigners were net buyers of Samsung Electrics and SK Hynix of around 500 billion won during the day. The won was quoted at 1,121.3 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform, 0.65 percent firmer than its previous close at 1,128.6. The currency rose 0.1 percent on a weekly basis, while it fell 0.5 percent on a monthly basis, snapping the two consecutive monthly gains. In offshore trading, the won was quoted at 1,121.23 per U.S. dollar, up 0.58 percent from the previous day, while in one-year non-deliverable forwards it was being asked at 1,103.65 per dollar. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 1.19 percent, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with gains. Japanese stocks rose 0.97 percent. The KOSPI is up around 5.1 percent so far this year, and up by 4.44 percent in the previous 30 days. The current price-to-earnings ratio is 12.10, the dividend yield is 1.28 percent and the market capitalisation is 1,242.04 trillion won. The trading volume during the session on the KOSPI index was 402,960,000 shares and, of the total traded issues of 895, the number of advancing shares was 519. Foreigners were net buyers of 809,168 million won worth of shares. The U.S dollar has risen 0.71 percent against the won this year. The won's high for the year is 1,113.81 per dollar on Jan. 11 and the low is 1,133.4 on Jan. 21. In money and debt markets, March futures on three-year treasury bonds rose 0.01 points to 109.27. The Korean 3-month Certificate of Deposit benchmark rate was quoted at 1.86 percent, while the benchmark 3-year Korean treasury bond yielded 1.815 percent, higher than the previous day's 1.81 percent. Stocks in Mainland China and Hong Kong rose on Friday after regulators announced new measures to beef up Chinese banks' capital strengths, as economic growth cools at home and abroad. At the midday break, the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.6 percent at 2,606.58 points, up 0.4 percent for the week as of midday. China's blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.9 percent, with its consumer staples sector climbing 0.6 percent, the healthcare sub-index rising 0.2 percent, and energy companies advancing 0.4 percent. The smaller Shenzhen index was up 0.4 percent and the start-up board ChiNext Composite index gained 0.4 percent. China will allow insurance institutions to invest in tier-2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds issued by banks, and set up a central bank bills swap to improve the liquidity of banks' perpetual bonds, policymakers said on Thursday. The move will make banks' shares more attractive, "particularly for absolute-return and long-term investors," Xiao Feifei, chief analyst for banks at Citic Securities, said in a note on Friday. Their "low valuation, high return-on-equity and regular dividends provide good investment value."

ASIAN STOCK INDEX



CSI's index tracking banks hit a seven-week high in morning trade, and was up 1.5 percent at midday, while the CSI300's financial sector sub-index was 1.3 percent higher. In Hong Kong, Chinese H-shares rose 1.5 percent. The benchmark Hang Seng Index climbed 1.3 percent to 27,483.98 points, up 1.5 percent for the week as of midday. Shares in the city were boosted by market leader Tencent Holding Ltd, which rose as much as 3 percent, after winning regulatory approvals for two mobile phone games. Information Technology stocks rose 2.9 percent. Analyst at Essence Securities said in a note prior to the open that the Hang Seng will breach its December high of 27,260 points, with Tencent in the lead. But whether the index can stay there "depends also on progress in the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and up until this point, developments are largely positive." Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is due to visit the United States at the end of this month. Mixed messages came out of the White House ahead of his trip. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Thursday that the two sides are still "miles and miles" from a deal,

while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Beijing and Washington are "making a lot of progress". Any escalation in the U.S.-China trade war would exacerbate a global economic downturn, which is already underway, according to a Reuters poll. Around the region, MSCI's Asia ex-Japan stock index was firmer by 1.1 percent while Japan's Nikkei index was up 1.2 percent. The largest percentage gainers in the main Shanghai Composite index were Beijing Bashi Media Co Ltd, Lanzhou Greatwall Electircal Co Ltd and Shanghai Diesel Engine Co Ltd, all up by 10 percent. At midday, China's A-shares were trading at a premium of 16.67 percent over the Hong Kong-listed H-shares. The Shanghai stock index is above its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day moving average. In Hong Kong, the top gainer on the Hang Seng was Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd, up 5.9 percent, while the biggest loser was China Mobile Ltd, which was down 1.1 percent. (Source:Reuters,Research:rizal)

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2019

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87

(29/Dec/89) 339.59

(02/Nov/2017) 33484.08

(29/Jan/2018) 26828.39

(03/Oct/2018) 2930.83

(20/Sep/2018) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07)

2018 HIGH 24270.62

(02/Oct/2018) 338.05

(29/Jan/2018) 33484.08

(29/Jan/2018) 26828.39

(03/Oct/2018) 2930.83

(20/Sep/2018) 3587.50890

(29/Jan/2018)

2019 HIGH 20892.68

(21/Jan/2019) 281.72

(25/Jan/2019) 27569.19

(25/Jan/2019) 24860.15

(25/Jan/2019) 2675.47

(18/Jan/2019) 2618.98010

(21/Jan/2019)

2019 LOW 19220.80

(07/Jan/2019) 254.55

(04/Jan/2019) 24896.87

(03/Jan/2019) 22638.41

(03/Jan/2019)

2443.96 (03/Jan/2019)

2440.90660 (04/Jan/2019)

2018 LOW 20014.77

(28/Dec/2018) 260.19

(29/Oct/2018) 24585.52

(30/Oct/2018) 21792.20

(24/Dec/2018) 2351.10

(24/Dec/2018) 2483.08640

(27/Dec/2018)

RECORD LOW 85.25

(06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61

(31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55) 132.93

(23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 25 January 2019

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 24737.20 183.96/0.75% .N225 20773.56 198.93/0.97%

/.SPX 2664.76 22.43/0.85% .KS200 281.67 5.06/1.83%

/.IXIC 7164.864 91.402/1.29% .HSI 27569.19 448.21/1.65%

JPY= 109.53 0.10/0.09% /.SSEC 2601.72340 10.02990/0.39%

KRW= 1117.78 9.97/0.88% /CLc1 (Oil) 53.55 0.37/0.70%



1YMH9(Dow Jones Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 15 March 2019

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

25 Jan 24476 24830 24458 372 24727 24727 269 1.10 193962

24 Jan 24512 24608 24386 222 24487 24487 64 0.26 208882

23 Jan 24390 24673 24276 397 24538 24538 148 0.61 249843

22 Jan 24690 24702 24216 486 24405 24405 282 1.14 280258

21 Jan 24690 24702 24528 174 24615 24615 72 0.29 43364

18 Jan 24336 24745 24298 447 24737 24737 416 1.71 214682

17 Jan 24160 24449 24010 439 24348 24348 197 0.82 200065

WEEKLY JANUARY DECEMBER 2019

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

24830 24216 24830 22563 26088 21681 24830 22563

(25/Jan) (22/Jan) (25/Jan) (04/Jan) (03/Dec) (24/Dec) (25/Jan) (04/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

25566 High Nov 13,2018

25370 High Nov 28,2018

25114 High Dec 07,2018

24844 High Dec 12,2018

SUPPORT

24630 Low on 1-Hourly Chart


24458 Low Jan 25,2019


RECOMMENDATION

BUY 24700

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 24575

TARGET

24950

25050

Daily 1YMc1 01/08/2018 - 04/02/2019 (JAK)

26684

23088

23467

23978

24955

26268

26966

24086

21452

24830

EMA; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

25/01/2019; 24.096

WMA; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

25/01/2019; 24.024

Cndl; 1YMc1; Trade Price

25/01/2019; 24.476; 24.830; 24.458; 24.695

Price

USD

Auto

21.200

21.600

22.000

22.400

22.800

23.200

23.600

24.000

24.400

24.800

25.200

25.600

26.000

26.400

26.800

27.200

RSI; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

25/01/2019; 68,119Value

USD

Auto

40

Mom; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

25/01/2019; 1.300

Value

USD

Auto

-2.000

0

06 13 20 27 04 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 22 28 04

Agustus 2018 September 2018 Oktober 2018 Nopember 2018 Desember 2018 Januari 2019



SSIamH9 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 11 March 2019

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % VOLUME

25 Jan SSIpmH9 20760 20890 20740 150 20800 --- 30 0.14 17186

25 Jan SSIamH9 20555 20825 20535 290 20770 20770 195 0.95 62061

24 Jan SSIpmH9 20555 20630 20490 140 20580 --- 5 0.02 19647

24 Jan SSIamH9 20525 20610 20425 185 20575 20575 5 0.02 43629

23 Jan SSIpmH9 20580 20710 20415 295 20525 --- 55 0.27 22062

23 Jan SSIamH9 20415 20670 20395 275 20580 20580 35 0.17 50008

22 Jan SSIpmH9 20560 20620 20330 290 20420 --- 125 0.61 20353

22 Jan SSIamH9 20715 20790 20540 250 20545 20545 175 0.84 40424

21 Jan SSIpmH9 20725 20755 20665 90 20725 --- 5 0.02 11227

21 Jan SSIamH9 20880 20890 20655 235 20720 20720 95 0.46 47577



20890 20330 20940 19205 22780 18935 20940 19205



RESISTANCE

21465 High Dec 18,2018

21215 High Dec 19,2018

21130 High Dec 20,2018

20940 High Jan 21,2019

SUPPORT



20490 Low Jan 25,2019

20330 Low Jan 23,2019

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 20770

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 20645

TARGET 20995

21120



KSH9 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 14 March 2019


CHANGE VOLUME

25 Jan 277.90 282.50 277.55 4.95 282.40 282.40 5.30 1.91 268255

24 Jan 274.80 277.15 274.25 2.90 277.10 277.10 2.30 0.84 235235

23 Jan 272.00 275.40 271.95 3.45 274.80 274.80 1.70 0.62 204788

22 Jan 274.90 275.35 272.25 3.10 273.10 273.10 1.70 0.62 192468

21 Jan 276.50 276.55 273.00 3.55 274.80 274.80 0.05 0.02 227732

18 Jan 273.90 274.85 273.20 1.65 274.75 274.75 2.40 0.88 172997



282.50 271.95 282.50 255.60 277.20 256.15 282.50 255.60



RESISTANCE

292.00 Fibo.Projections on D-Chart ( 61.8% )




SUPPORT

280.40 Low on 1-Hourly Chart


277.55 Low Jan 25,2019


RECOMMENDATION

BUY 282.10

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 280.80

TARGET 284.35

285.60



HSIF9 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 31 January 2019


CHANGE VOLUME

25 Jan 27318 27618 27209 409 27602 27602 506 1.87 242207

24 Jan 27065 27132 26872 260 27096 27096 111 0.41 195639

23 Jan 26885 27160 26875 285 26985 26985 18 0.07 201371

22 Jan 27144 27471 26835 636 27003 27003 237 0.87 197115

21 Jan 27234 27348 27013 335 27240 27240 140 0.52 191139

18 Jan 26985 27144 26923 221 27100 27100 331 1.24 187737

17 Jan 26940 27041 26666 375 26769 26769 135 0.51 236847



27618 26835 27618 24876 27326 25307 27618 24876



RESISTANCE

28659 High Aug 09,2018

28273 High Aug 27,2018

28037 High Sep 26,2018

27935 High Sep 28,2018

SUPPORT




27209 Low Jan 25,2019

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 27760

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 27610

TARGET 27985

28110

Daily HSIc1 18/07/2018 - 11/02/2019 (JAK)

17856

23614

24485

24946

23985

23538

28621

27371

21488

25620

21051

19394

21664

19400

18037

21195

18850

20278

22321

31544

29113

26805

25110

24876

28574

28149

33516

29860

26758

26642

32005

24457

27618

Cndl; HSIc1; Trade Price

28/01/2019; 27.618; 27.773; 27.581; 27.764

EMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

28/01/2019; 26.758

WMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

28/01/2019; 26.376

Price

HKD

Auto

24.000

24.400

24.800

25.200

25.600

26.000

26.400

26.800

27.200

27.600

28.000

28.400

28.800

29.200

29.600

RSI; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

28/01/2019; 76,442 Value

HKD

Auto

40

Mom; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

28/01/2019; 1.861

Value

HKD

Auto

23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 04 11

Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018 Oktober 2018 Nopember 2018 Desember 2018 Januari 2019



Dollar slides as Trump calls temporary end to partial government shutdown - Reuters News

The dollar fell to a more than one-week low on Friday, holding losses, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tentative agreement with lawmakers to end a partial U.S. government shutdown for three weeks. Trump's announcement briefly pared the dollar's losses, but traders said the currency reaction was not as strong as expected.

The agreement called for three weeks of stop-gap funding and a senior Democratic aide said the money the president demanded for a border wall is not included. Trump had previously insisted on the inclusion of $5.7 billion to help pay for a wall along the vast U.S.-Mexico border in any legislation to fund government agencies. "The dollar's reaction has not been super strong because the uncertainty remains," said Juan Perez, senior currency trader, at Tempus Inc in Washington "And it's also a temporary reopening. He was also actually adamant that a permanent solution should be made," Perez added. The shutdown dragged on for 35 days, affecting 800,000 furloughed workers. In one of the many effects of the shutdown, hundreds of flights have been cancelled or delayed at airports in the New York area and Philadelphia. In afternoon trading, the dollar index was down 0.8 percent at 95.812, earlier falling to a one-week low. On Thursday, the dollar climbed to a three-week high of 96.676. Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist, at Capital Economics in Toronto, said Trump caved "presumably ... because of the damage the shutdown is having on his own approval ratings, particularly now that the shutdown is beginning to have a wider impact." The dollar has been on the defensive all day as traders' focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week when the U.S. central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged after raising them four times last year. The euro, on the other hand, rebounded on Friday, steadying after a dovish European Central Bank president failed to alter an already downbeat assessment on the euro zone's economy. The single currency rose 0.9 percent to $1.1412. ECB President Mario Draghi warned on Thursday a dip in the euro zone's economy could be more pronounced than thought a few weeks ago, comments seen as signalling a delay in the bank's first interest rate hike. The euro on Thursday weakened broadly on those comments and fell to a two-month low of $1.1286. Sterling, meanwhile, hit a more than three-month high against the dollar after a report in the Sun newspaper that Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party had privately decided to offer conditional backing for British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal next week. (Source Reuters, Research – Elli)

FOREX/CURRENCIES



EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/ 2.25%-2.50% (US)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Jan 25 1.13032 1.14163 1.12995 116,8 1.14129 112,6 1.13003

Jan 24 1.13790 1.13902 1.12882 102,0 1.13003 78,6 1.13789

Jan 23 1.13607 1.13932 1.13496 43,6 1.13789 20,8 1.13581

Jan 22 1.13686 1.13717 1.13349 36,8 1.13581 8,9 1.13670

Jan 21 1.13648 1.13899 1.13556 34,3 1.13670 3,7 1.13633



1.14163 1.12882 1.15685 1.12882 1.14846 1.12685 1.15685 1.12882



RESISTANCE

1.1568 High Jan 10, 2019

1.1539 High Jan 11, 2019

1.1488 High Jan 15, 2019

1.1453 High on 1-Hourly Chart

SUPPORT




1.1266 Low Nov 28, 2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.1395

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 1.1345

TARGET 1.1465

1.1495



USD/JPY Interest Rate: 2.25%-2.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP)


Jan 25 109.555 109.938 109.475 46,3 109.510 10,9 109.619

Jan 24 109.546 109.788 109.409 37,9 109.619 6,7 109.552

Jan 23 109.322 109.987 109.310 67,7 109.552 21,0 109.342

Jan 22 109.622 109.683 109.134 54,9 109.342 28,3 109.625

Jan 21 109.721 109.749 109.462 28,7 109.625 10,1 109.726



109.987 109.134 109.987 106.542 113.810 109.544 109.987 106.542



RESISTANCE

111.45 High Dec 21,2018

111.04 High Dec 28,2018

110.47 High Dec 31,2018

109.88 High Jan 18,2019

SUPPORT


108.13 Low Jan 11,2019

107.76 Low Jan 10,2019

107.50 Low Jan 04,2019

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 109.60

STOP LOSS 110.10

TARGET 108.90

108.60



GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.75% (GB)/ 2.25%-2.50% (US)


Jan 25 1.30658 1.32119 1.30611 150,8 1.32106 150,3 1.30603

Jan 24 1.30770 1.30935 1.30116 81,9 1.30603 6,8 1.30671

Jan 23 1.29576 1.30803 1.29426 137,7 1.30671 121,8 1.29453

Jan 22 1.28954 1.29476 1.28545 93,1 1.29453 49,8 1.28955

Jan 21 1.28663 1.29102 1.28297 80,5 1.28955 32,0 1.28635



1.32119 1.28297 1.32119 1.24651 1.28386 1.24794 1.32119 1.24651



RESISTANCE

1.3446 High Jun 14,2018

1.3362 High Jul 09,2018

1.3297 High Sep 20,2018

1.3235 High Oct 16,2018

SUPPORT




1.2940 Low Jan 23,2019

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.3180

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 1.3100

TARGET 1.3270

1.3310

Daily GBP= 16/07/2018 - 05/02/2019 (JAK)

1.6309

1.5957

1.5824

1.5769

1.6178 1.6175

1.6380

1.6177

1.5878

1.4812

1.5101

1.5425

1.7090

1.7191

1.6888

1.6524

1.6182

1.6696

1.6015

1.4950

1.5928

1.5508

1.5818

1.5658

1.3833

1.4668

1.4004

1.4780

1.2796

1.3533

1.3371

1.3055

Harami

1.3471

1.2849

1.3037

1.2770

1.4376

1.3608

1.3174

1.3997

1.3048

1.2660 1.2694

1.2436

1.3297

1.3198

Cndl; GBP=; Bid

25/01/2019; 1,3063; 1,3198; 1,3053; 1,3196

EMA; GBP=; Bid(Open); 20

25/01/2019; 1,2860

WMA; GBP=; Bid(Last); 55

25/01/2019; 1,2791

SMA; GBP=; Bid(Last); 200

25/01/2019; 1,3059

Price

USD

Auto

1,245

1,25

1,255

1,26

1,265

1,27

1,275

1,28

1,285

1,29

1,295

1,3

1,305

1,31

1,315

1,32

1,325

1,33

1,335

1,34

1,345

1,35

RSI; GBP=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

25/01/2019; 80,046 Value

USD

Auto

40

Mom; GBP=; Bid(Last); 14

25/01/2019; 0,0418Value

USD

Auto

16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 04

Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018 Oktober 2018 Nopember 2018 Desember 2018 Januari 2019



USD/CHF Interest Rate: 2.25%-2.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH)


Jan 25 0.99622 0.99732 0.99210 52,2 0.99242 29,3 0.99535

Jan 24 0.99462 0.99757 0.99334 42,3 0.99535 11,3 0.99422

Jan 23 0.99705 0.99888 0.99386 50,2 0.99422 28,7 0.99709

Jan 22 0.99718 0.99847 0.99600 24,7 0.99709 3,0 0.99739

Jan 21 0.99486 0.99866 0.99458 40,8 0.99739 19,1 0.99548



0.99888 0.99210 0.99888 0.97151 1.00072 0.97889 0.99888 0.97151



RESISTANCE

1.0128 High Nov 13,2018

1.0087 High Nov 16,2018

1.0008 High Dec 05,2018

0.9987 High Jan 21,2019

SUPPORT


0.9797 Low Jan 14, 2019

0.9730 Low Jan 09, 2019

0.9643 Low Sep 27, 2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 0.9945

STOP LOSS 1.0005

TARGET 0.9875

0.9845



AUD/USD Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/ 2.25%-2.50% (US)


Jan 25 0.70872 0.71827 0.70748 107,9 0.71824 92,1 0.70903

Jan 24 0.71396 0.71656 0.70797 85,9 0.70903 48,4 0.71387

Jan 23 0.71220 0.71429 0.71165 26,4 0.71387 18,8 0.71199

Jan 22 0.71552 0.71591 0.71148 44,3 0.71199 36,4 0.71563

Jan 21 0.71601 0.71808 0.71388 42,0 0.71563 9,7 0.71660



0.71827 0.70748 0.72340 0.68288 0.73922 0.70155 0.72340 0.68288



RESISTANCE


0.7269 High Dec 06, 2018

0.7234 High Jan 11, 2019

0.7213 High Jan 18, 2019

SUPPORT





RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.7165

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 0.7115

TARGET 0.7235

0.7265



NZD/USD Interest Rate: 1.75% (NZ)/ 2.25%-2.50% (US)


Jan 25 0.67589 0.68496 0.67458 103,8 0.68476 86,4 0.67612

Jan 24 0.67843 0.68061 0.67548 51,3 0.67612 19,6 0.67808

Jan 23 0.67514 0.67970 0.67412 55,8 0.67808 32,8 0.67480

Jan 22 0.67278 0.67490 0.67058 43,2 0.67480 19,9 0.67281

Jan 21 0.67359 0.67416 0.67123 29,3 0.67281 12,2 0.67403



0.68496 0.67058 0.68496 0.65894 0.69684 0.66913 0.68496 0.65894



RESISTANCE

0.6968 High Dec 04, 2018

0.6943 High Dec 05, 2018

0.6899 High Dec 12, 2018

0.6869 High Dec 19, 2018

SUPPORT



0.6741 Low Jan 23, 2019

0.6705 Low Jan 22, 2019

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.6830

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 0.6780

TARGET 0.6900

0.6930



EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)


Jan 25 123.836 125.299 123.772 152,7 124.993 111,1 123.882

Jan 24 124.666 124.882 123.772 111,0 123.882 79,7 124.679

Jan 23 124.223 124.921 124.203 71,8 124.679 46,6 124.213

Jan 22 124.641 124.697 124.027 67,0 124.213 40,7 124.620

Jan 21 124.723 124.811 124.493 31,8 124.620 7,6 124.696



125.299 123.772 125.832 120.755 129.237 125.386 125.832 120.755



RESISTANCE

127.69 High Dec 21,2018

127.09 High Dec 27,2018

126.43 High Dec 31,2018

125.84 High Jan 02,2019

SUPPORT

124.10 Low Jan 08,2019

123.40 Low Jan 07,2019

122.57 Low Jan 04,2019


RECOMMENDATION

BUY 124.75

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 123.90

TARGET 125.75

126.15

Daily EURJPY= 16/08/2018 - 05/02/2019 (JAK)

126.04

13.1.18

149.72

141.05

139.02

128.16

134.59

132.50

130.00

124.64

126.25

114.80

109.46

110.78

118.45

112.31

133.48

131.98131.37

133.10

137.50

124.61

126.61

124.89

118.72

124.96

Cndl; EURJPY=; Bid

25/01/2019; 123,92; 125,31; 123,77; 125,11

EMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Open); 20

25/01/2019; 124,81

WMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 55

25/01/2019; 125,78

Price

JPY

Auto

117

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

RSI; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

25/01/2019; 56,991

Value

JPY

Auto

Mom; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14

25/01/2019; 0,38

Value

JPY

Auto

20 27 03 10 17 24 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 04

Agustus 2018 September 2018 Oktober 2018 Nopember 2018 Desember 2018 Januari 2019



USD/CAD Interest Rate: 2.25%-2.50% (US)/1.75% (CA)

WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE

1.3246 1.3210



1.3374 1.3210 1.3662 1.3176 1.3664 1.3157 1.3662 1.3176



RESISTANCE

1.3495 High Jan 04,2019

1.3389 High Jan 07,2019

1.3321 High Jan 08,2019


SUPPORT

1.3157 Low Dec 03,2018

1.3052 Reactions Low Nov 07,2018

1.2965 Low Nov 24,2018

1.2912 Low Nov 16,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 1.3230

STOP LOSS 1.3300

TARGET 1.3150

1.3110



Gold soars to over 7-month high as dollar falls before Fed meeting - Reuters News

Gold jumped over 1 percent to a more than a seven-month high on Friday, briefly surpassing $1,300 as the dollar slid ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week where the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Spot gold rose 1.3 percent to $1,297.26 per ounce as of 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), having earlier touched a peak of $1,300.30, its highest since June 15. The metal was on course

for its best week in four. U.S. gold futures settled up 1.4 percent at $1,298.10 per ounce. "The major catalyst supporting gold is a big drop in the dollar, amid expectations the Fed will reiterate a pause to its hiking cycle next week," said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst with Forex.com. Gold tends to appreciate on expectations of lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The dollar fell off a three-week high reached in the previous session as investors focused on the Fed meeting next week. This made gold, which is traded in dollars, cheaper for holders of other currencies. "There are also some rumours that the Fed is backing off their quantitative tightening program, which would mean they are going dovish. This would in turn mean a probable end of rate hikes in 2019, which would be supportive for gold," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Holdings of SPDR Gold, the largest gold-based exchange traded fund, hovered around their highest levels since late June 2018. Risks "from economic and political perspectives, are keeping gold relatively well supported going forward," said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann. A global economic slowdown is under way and any escalation in the U.S.-China trade war would trigger a sharper downturn, according to the latest Reuters polls of economists around the world. Investors are also worried about the impact of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, with two bills to end the partial shutdown failing to win enough votes in the Senate. Among other metals, palladium, which hit a record high of $1,434.50 an ounce last week on low inventories and rising demand, gained 3 percent to $1,360.50 but remained on course for its first weekly drop in five, having fallen over 1 percent so far this week. Silver rose 2.3 percent to $15.66 per ounce, while platinum gained 1.5 percent to $813, on track for its first weekly gain in three. (Source Reuters, Research – Elli)

PRECIOUS METAL



GOLD (XAU/USD)


Jan 25 1280.820 1300.210 1279.830 20.38 1299.350 18.38 1280.970

Jan 24 1282.700 1284.700 1276.650 8.05 1280.970 1.58 1282.550

Jan 23 1284.820 1286.410 1278.580 7.83 1282.550 2.38 1284.930

Jan 22 1280.290 1285.370 1277.330 8.04 1284.930 5.09 1279.840

Jan 21 1282.880 1283.450 1276.680 6.77 1279.840 1.13 1280.970



1300.210 1276.650 1300.210 1276.550 1283.930 1221.200 1300.210 1276.550



RESISTANCE

1322.20 High May 14, 2018

1314.77 High May 15, 2018

1309.18 High Jun 14, 2018

1303.01 High Jun 15, 2018

SUPPORT




1276.65 Low Jan 24, 2019

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1298.00

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 1292.00

TARGET 1306.00

1311.00



SILVER (XAG/USD)


Jan 25 15.296 15.705 15.275 0.43 15.704 0.41 15.290

Jan 24 15.344 15.377 15.225 0.15 15.290 0.06 15.347

Jan 23 15.310 15.416 15.253 0.16 15.347 0.03 15.317

Jan 22 15.253 15.333 15.164 0.17 15.317 0.06 15.255

Jan 21 15.329 15.345 15.173 0.17 15.255 0.06 15.312



15.705 15.164 15.854 15.164 15.489 14.189 15.854 15.164



RESISTANCE

16.14 High Jul 10, 2018

16.04 High Jul 11, 2018

15.96 High Jul 13, 2018

15.85 High Jan 04, 2019

SUPPORT





RECOMMENDATION

BUY 15.65

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 15.55

TARGET 15.85

15.95



Oil climbs on Venezuelan crisis despite surging U.S. supply - Reuters News

Oil prices edged higher on Friday as political turmoil in Venezuela threatened to tighten crude supply, but concerns over surging U.S. fuel stocks and global economic woes weighed on sentiment. The United States signalled on Thursday it may impose sanctions on Venezuelan exports after recognising opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president this week, prompting President Nicholas Maduro to cut ties with Washington.

But the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute and broader gloom over world economic growth put a check on prices. Brent crude oil futures ended the session at $61.64 a barrel, up 55 cents, or 0.9 percent. Brent, however, has shed about 1.7 percent since the start of trade on Monday and is on track to post its first week of losses in four weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $53.69 per barrel, up 56 cents, or 1.05 percent. WTI futures fell about 0.2 percent on the week, also posting the first week of declines in four weeks. RBC Europe predicted that U.S. sanctions could nearly double projected output shortfalls from Venezuela. "Venezuelan production will decline by an additional 300,000-500,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, but such punitive measures could expand that outage by several hundred thousand barrels," it said. Still, some analysts said the possibility of immediate sanctions were unlikely. "We view a blockade on Venezuelan imports as low probability and a last resort measure that is likely weeks if not months away should it materialize," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. "The evolving situation in Venezuela appears capable of delaying our expected test of $50 support." OUTPUT SURGE Global oil markets are still well supplied, however, thanks in part to a spike in U.S. output. Record U.S. production would likely offset any short-term disruptions to Venezuelan supply due to possible U.S. sanctions, Britain's Barclays said in a note. The bank cut its 2019 average Brent forecast to $70 a barrel, from $72 previously. U.S. energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time this year. Drillers added 10 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 25, bringing the total count to 862, General Electric Co's Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday. The output surge has swollen U.S. fuel stocks, and crude inventories rose by 8 million barrels last week, according to official data released on Thursday. Refining profits for gasoline are crashing around the world as consumption stalls amid a huge wave of new supplies, resulting in record inventories in Asia, America and Europe. In the U.S. market, gasoline margins sank to $5.70 per barrel on Thursday, the lowest seasonally since 2009, weighed down by weak demand for the fuel and excess supply. Analysts have predicted a more balanced market due to a production cut pact by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, as well as potential export disruptions in Venezuela, Iran and Libya. "While the current state of affairs is price constructive for oil, the market is hesitant when it comes to the global outlook," Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum. Demand may start to stutter because of a global economic slowdown, which is likely to dent fuel consumption. A trade dispute between the United States and China and tightening financial conditions around the world have hurt manufacturing activity in most economies, including in China, where growth last year was the weakest in nearly 30 years. According to Reuters polls of hundreds of economists worldwide, a synchronised global economic slowdown is underway and would deepen if the U.S.-China trade war escalated. (Source Reuters, Research – Elli)

O I L



CLH9/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Feb 2019 - Reuters)


Jan 25 53.17 53.92 52.91 1.01 53.53 0.37 53.16

Jan 24 52.44 53.46 52.08 1.38 53.16 0.78 52.38

Jan 23 52.94 53.63 51.86 1.77 52.38 0.61 52.99

Jan 22 54.17 54.31 52.05 2.26 52.99 1.22 54.21

Jan 21 53.94 54.47 53.55 0.92 54.21 0.24 53.97

Jan 18 52.52 54.13 52.36 1.77 53.97 1.49 52.48



54.47 51.86 54.47 44.36 54.53 42.39 54.47 44.36



RESISTANCE

58.13 High Nov 16, 2018

57.43 High Nov 20, 2018

55.82 High Nov 21, 2018

54.47 High Jan 21, 2019

SUPPORT


51.86 Low Jan 23, 2019

50.42 Low Jan 14, 2019

49.71 Low Jan 09, 2019

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 53.00

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 52.00

TARGET 54.30

55.00

daily outlook outlook vec 28... · stimulus any further, just as two fresh surveys pointed to an...

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