daily agri report aug 13

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Commodities Daily Report

Agricultural Commodities

Monday| August 13, 2012

www.angelcommodities.com

Content

News & Market Highlights

Chana

Sugar

Oilseed Complex

Spices Complex

Mentha

Potato

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Market Highlights (% change) as on Aug 10, 2012

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Sensex 17558 -0.02 2.09 0.39

Nifty 5320 -0.05 2.01 0.27

INR/$55.28 0.20 -0.84 -0.43 2

Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl 92.87 -0.52 1.61 8.23 14

Comex Gold - $/oz 1620 0.16 0.85 2.83 -

Source: Reu

News in brief

Spurt in Rains Boosts Pulses AcreageLate rains in Rajasthan are likely to play a key role in determining the

pulses acreage – vital for ensuring protein content in the diet of the

average Indian. In the past few days, a spurt in rains in western Rajasthan

has accelerated pulses sowing in the state, kindling hopes of recovering

pulses acreage deficit. According to the latest sowing data, the total

coverage under pulses is 74.48 lakh hectare as against 89.34 lakh hectare

last year in the corresponding period. Out of the overall deficit of 14.86

lakh hectare, Rajasthan alone accounts for 12.6 lakh hectare.

(Source: The economic times)

Soya, Sunflower Oil Prices to Rise Due to FestivalsThe US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on low soya bean

production has set on fire the soya oil market, with prices moving

upwards to $1,270 per tonne from $1,230 per tonne on Friday.

Sunflower oil, which India imports from Black Sea countries, has also

seen an upward trend and is trading at the same level as soya oil. Traders

in India say soya and sunflower oil will become costlier in the upcoming

festival season as a large portion of demand will have to be met through

imports. The Indian crop will enter the market by October end as the late

monsoon has delayed harvesting. USDA has forecast soya bean

production at 2.69 billion bushels, a 12% decline from last year. The

expected yields of an average of 36.1 bushels per acre would be the

lowest since 2003. BV Mehta, ED of the Solvent Extractors’ Association,

said: “The scenario is not very good in India and abroad. Soya bean has

been sowed in India but if rains do not continue till October, the yield will

come down affecting production. Groundnut and sunflower sowing has

been affected as there has been little rain in Karnataka and Maharashtra.

Overall, prices of edible oil in the country will remain on the higher side.”(Source: The Economic Times)

Govt Looks to Expand Food Security CoverIt may become UPA plank for 2014 polls and may cost . 1.18 lakh crore

The food ministry has submitted a ‘Plan B’ for the proposed FoodSecurity Bill to the parliamentary standing committee for consideration, a

source in the food ministry said. The new plan, which has reportedly

received clearance from the prime minister, will provide food to a larger

cross-section of population than originally thought. The original Food

Security Bill aimed at providing subsidised wheat and rice to over 63.5%

of the country’s population. The Plan B aims to cover 67% of the

population. The Plan B simplifies the allocation math by suggesting a

uniform food grain quota of 5 kg per person per month for the entire

67% population of the country. The new plan also suggests giving states

the power to identify beneficiaries according to their own criteria, ruling

out any difference with the central government in this regard. The Centre

may frame a guideline which would guarantee food for persons spending

less than Rs 40 in rural areas and 50 in urban areas per day. The new plan

will involve a subsidy burden of 1.18 lakh crore for pan-India rolloutcompared to 1.11 lakh crore for the original plan. The difference is about

7,000 crore, which matches with the amount the government plans to

spend on giving a mobile phone to every BPL family.( Source: The economic Times)

Sugar output in India set to fall on dry weather, says KingsmanSugar output in India, the world's second-biggest producer, may be less

than forecast next year as a drought threatens to cut yields in some

areas, lowering exports, broker Kingsman SA said.Production may total

25 million tonnes in the year starting October 1, compared with 25.5

million tonnes forecast in June, Kingsman said. The estimate matches

those by the Indian Sugar Mills Association and the National Federation

of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. Output this year is set to total 26

million tonnes, it said. ( Source: Business Standard)

Soyabean farmers in M.P. switching to urea as DAP costs sho

up

Farmers in the country’s largest soyabean producing State, Madh

Pradesh, have started using urea instead of diammonium phospha

(DAP) in its cultivation due to the rising prices of fertilizers. “Urea pric

are comparatively controlled; that’s why farmers are using it

compared to other fertilizers,” Krishak Bharati Cooperative Ltd’s Direct

(Marketing), N. Sambasiva Rao, told PTI. “In this kharif season, we a

finding it hard to buy fertilizers because their costs have increas

immensely. In 2011, a 50-kg sack of DAP cost Rs 860. It has increased Rs 1,272 now,” said a farmer from Indore’s Daulatabad region. “Th

year, consumption of DAP and super phosphate will be 30-40 per ce

less because their prices have risen more than other fertilizers,”

added. Rao attributed the rise in fertilizer prices to rupee depreciati

against the US dollar which has increased import costs of fertilize

However, experts say that for a good harvest, right time and right mix

fertilizers is necessary. ( Source: Business line )

Dairies see milk procurement going up 10-25% in areas hit

dry spell

The prevailing drought-like situation in parts of the country has led

farmers selling more milk in the market. This is reflected from the 10-

per cent rise in milk procurement that co-operatives and corporates ha

registered largely from the dry-spell hit areas. Farmers tend to sell moof milk, which becomes the only source of income when crops are hit

poor rains, Sodhi said. The average daily milk procurement by GCMM

stood at 10.30 million kg in 2011-12. He estimates the country’s over

milk production to sustain a growth of 3-4 per cent this year too. T

Government is yet to officially announce milk production numbers f

2011-12, while the output stood at 122.8 million tonnes for 2010-1( Source: Business Line )

Govt to enhance seed subsidy under drought manageme

programme

The agriculture ministry has in-principle agreed to enhance the se

subsidy under its drought management programme. Cereals, coar

cereals including fodder crops, pulses and oilseeds covered under vario

schemes of the ministry, will benefit from this subsidy. In view of t

deficient rains, this will be applicable for all states where the ministry

implementing its various schemes. The amount of seed subsidy has be

enhanced from Rs 800 to 1,000 per quintal for coarse cereals, includi

millets used for fodder, from Rs 500 to Rs 700 per quintal for cereals a

from Rs 1,200 to Rs 2,000 per quintal for pulses and oilseeds. Some

the major schemes, which will allocate this enhanced subsidy compone

to the states, are Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana, National Food Secur

Mission, Micromanagement of Agriculture, Initiative for nutrition

security through intensive millets, Integrated scheme for oilseeds, puls

oilpalm and maize and Bringing Green Revolution in Eastern India. ( Source: Business Standard )







Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 20

% change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM

Chana Spot - NCDEX

(Delhi)

Rs/qtl 4914 0.06 -1.72 3.13 5

Chana- NCDEX Aug

'12 Futures

Rs/qtl 4809 0.75 0.78 3.98 4

Source: Reut

Technical Chart - Chana NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Teleq

Technical Outlook valid for Aug 13, 2012

Contract Unit Support Resistance

Chana Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4780-4835 4925-4965

ChanaChana futures traded on a positive note last week due to lower sowing of

kharif pulses. Tight supplies coupled with good demand for Chana ahead

of the upcoming festive season is also supporting the prices. Fears that

the government might take action and may impose stock limits to curb

the rising prices led a correction in the spot. The spot settled 1.72% lower

while the Futures settled 0.78% lower w-o-w.

As per the latest report form IMD, monsoon till 08th

August 2012 were

17% below normal with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana affecting

the most. This has led to concerns over kharif pulses output as Rajasthan

accounts for 25% of the kharif pulses production. Also, poor rains would

impact Rabi chana sowing where Rajasthan contributes around 12-13% in

total chana output.

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs yesterday approved the

Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13

season. The MSP for Arhar has been fixed at Rs.3850 per quintal and of

Moong at Rs.4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs.650 per quintal

and Rs.900 per quintal respectively.

Government released fourth advance estimates wherein it revisedupward Chana output at 7.58 mn tn from 7.4 mn tonnes estimated in the

third advance estimates and 8.22 mn tn in 2010-11.

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 74.48 Lakh hectare area has

been planted under Kharif pulses as on 9th

August, 2012 compared to

89.34 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year, a decline of 16.63% .

Sowing is reported lower mainly in Rajasthan.

Rajasthan Agriculture Department states that planted area under Kharif

Pulses is down at 8.93 lakh hectares ha compared to 19.35 lakh ha same

period last year. (Dated 1st

August, 2012). Acreage may remain lower as

farmers in Rajasthan may shift to other lucrative crops.

However, in AP and Maharashtra, Kharif sowing is up by 5% and 0.2%.

According to the Fourth advance estimates, Pulses output is pegged at

17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year

2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million

tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83

million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones.

As per the latest release, Ministry of Commerce & Industry revealed that

20.23 lakh tones of peas, 2.03 lakh tons of Chana, 4.32 lakh tons of Urad

& Moong, 1.12 lakh tons of Masoor and 4.26 lakh tons of Tur has been

imported by India during April11-March 12.

India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of

around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in

imports this year. However, rupee weakness may turn import costlier.Around 74% of Indian chickpea imports come from Australia.

Outlook

Chana prices may are expected to continue to trade on a positive note on

output concerns in kharif pulses. Tight supplies as well as strong demand

amid festive season may also lend support to the prices. Further, poor

rains in Rajasthan, and thereby concerns over chana sowing over there is

also supporting the upside in the prices. However, if government takes

some measure to curb the rising prices of Pulse, like imposition of stock

limits, prices might come under downside pressure.

In the medium term to long term, the trend remains positive as supplies

may not be sufficient to meet the rising demand of the commodity. Also

lower sowing of kharif pulses may support chana prices.







Market Highlights as on Aug 11, 2012 % Change

Unit Last Prev. day WoW MoM Yo

Sugar Spot- NCDEX

(Kolkata) Rs/qtl 3800 -2.94 -3.06 9.91 2

Sugar M- NCDEX

Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl 3532 -0.98 -2.51 9.35

Source:

International Prices as on Aug 10, 2012

% Change


Sugar No 5- Liffe-

Oct'12 Futures

$/tonne 578.5 -0.52 -5.10 -11.00

Sugar No 11-ICE

Oct '12 Futures

$/tonne 460.89 -0.29 -5.73 -7.78

Source: Re

Technical Chart - Sugar NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Te



Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 3425-3455 3520-3540

SugarSugar prices corrected last week on account of profit booking. Also,

reports that the government may release additional sugar to arrest the

rise in prices ahead of the festive season also led to the correction. The

Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.06% and 2.51% lower w-o-w.

Industry body has estimated 7 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning

October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may exports 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. (Source: Reuters)

The Central Government has released additional 4 lakh ton of non-levy

sugar for the month of August, 2012. With the earlier release of 45 lakh

ton in June and 2.66 lakh ton in July the total 51.66 lakh ton non-levy

sugar will be available.

According to a circular issued by FMC a Minimum Initial Margin of 10% of

the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher will be

imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of

Sugar with effect from beginning of trading day Monday, Aug 06, 2012.

In the international markets Liffe white sugar as well as ICE raw sugar

settled 0.52% and 0.29% lower Friday.

Domestic Production and ExportsAs on 9

thAugust, 2012, the area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88

lakh ha, up from 50.59 lakh ha on same period a year ago.

Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next year’s

output lower at 25mn tn, down by 1mn tn compared to the current year.

Sugar production in India — the world’s second-biggest producer —

touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011.

IMD has so far predicted normal rains in August. However, rains in the

first week of august are still 1% below average. If monsoon recover in the

month of August, then there would not be much downward revision in

the output and vice a versa.

With the opening stocks of 7 mn tonnes, domestic Sugar supplies are

estimated at 32mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.5-

23 mln tn for 2012-13 season. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Global Sugar Updates

According to Unica, Mills in Brazil's main center-south cane region

produced 9.32 mn tn of sugar since April, down 22 percent from a year

ago,

With a return to a normal weather pattern, cane harvesting is in full

swing. While sugar output reached 2.63 mn tn in the first two weeks of

July, up 2% from a year ago.

Brazil's exports of raw sugar fell to 1.29 million tonnes in June, down by

30% from 1.85 million tonnes a year earlier.

The global sugar surplus remains on target to fall in 2012/13 season,

though declines will be less than previously suggested, while adverse

weather in several producers may stop prices dropping far below recent

levels. (Source: Reuters)

According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar

surplus is forecast to halve to around 3 mln tn in 2012/13 (October-

September) from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12).

Outlook

Sugar prices are expected to trade on sideways to positive in the

intraday. Festive season demand and comparatively lower supplies may

support the prices. However, any action by the government to control

the rising prices may lead to a correction in the prices.

Long term outlook for sugar would depend on the monsoon in the month

of August and September and thereby output estimates for next season

that will begin in October.








% Change


Soybean Spot- NCDEX

(Indore)

Rs/qtl 4597 0.28 2.77 0.17

Soybean- NCDEX Aug'12

Futures

Rs/qtl 4613 -0.94 2.43 0.32

Ref Soy oil Spot-

NCDEX(Indore)

Rs/10 kgs 777.2 0.47 -0.57 -1.13

Ref Soyoil- NCDEX Aug '12

Futures

Rs/10 kgs 776.1 0.23 -1.28 -1.63

Source: Reuter

as on Aug 10, 2

International Prices Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Soybean- CBOT-

Aug'12 Futures

USc/

Bushel 1710 0.89 3.22 11.57 2

Soybean Oil - CBOT-

Aug'12 Futures

USc/lbs 53.6 2.31 3.00 2.72 -

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil as on Aug 11, 2012

% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y

CPO-Bursa

Malaysia – Aug '12

Contract

MYR/Tonne 2830 0.46 -2.31 -7.30

CPO-MCX- Aug '12

Futures

Rs/10 kg 555.5 0.34 -1.99 -1.77

Source: Reuter

RM Seed as on Aug 11, 2012

Unit LastPrevday WoW MoM

RM Seed Spot-

NCDEX (Jaipur)

Rs/100 kgs 4275 1.79 -1.84 1.79

RM Seed- NCDEX

Aug '12 Futures

Rs/100 kgs 4327 -0.51 -2.21 2.24

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart –Soybean NCDEX Oct contra

Source: Teleq



Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures Rs./qtl 77-781 790-794

Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures Rs./qtl 3885-3925 4030-4075

RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 4318-4345 4405-4435

CPO MCX Sept Futures Rs./qtl 546-549 556-560

Oilseeds

Soybean: Soybean futures traded on a bullish note last week

ahead of the USDA monthly crop report. However, the prices

corrected towards the end of the week of profit booking as well as

rains in the soybean belt in Madhya Pradhesh. The Spot as well as

the Futures settled 2.77% and 2.43% higher w-o-w.

India's oil meal exports fell to 2.75 lakh tn in July from 2.82 lakh tn a

year earlier led by a sharp drop in the overseas sales of rapeseed

meal. Soy meal exports rose to 1.68 lakh tn in July, from 1.39 tn a

year ago.

The only factor that is supporting the upside in the coming week is

the USDA report which I expected to be released on Friday.

In the international markets CBOT Soybean traded on a bullish note

as the USDA released its monthly crop report. USDA cut its U.S.

2012/13 soybean production forecast to 2.692 billion bushels, from

3.05 billion in July. Continued export demand from China added

support. CBOT Soybean settled 0.89% higher on Friday.

In the domestic markets, as on 9th

August Oilseeds have been sown

in 151.82 lakh hectares so far, compared with 157.9 lakh hectares

same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 103.2 lakh hectares.In 2011-12 season, soybean was sown under 102.9 lakh hectares

area and recorded 12.28 million tonne output, down from 12.73 mn

tn in 2010-11 season.

Indian acreage may touch record high levels this year as farmers

have opted for this remunerative crop across India.

Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX Soy Oil and MCX CPO corrected last week

due to higher stocks in Malaysia. Lower exports also led to a

correction in the prices. Malaysian supplies are higher due to

seasonally higher yield during the period (July-October).

Malaysian palm oil Production has risen consistently since March

2012 and expected to go as high as 1.9 mn tn in September. On the

other hand, exports have fallen 14.8 percent in July to below

1.23mn tonnes compared to 1.45mn tonnes a month ago due to alull in Asian demand.

India imported 124,125 tonnes of refined palm oil in June, down

nearly 25 percent from May. Total vegetable oil imports in June

were 783,315 tonnes, down 12.7 percent from 896,921 tonnes in

the previous month, the data from the Solvent Extractors'

Association (SEA) showed.

Rape/mustard Seed: NCDEX mustard seed prices corrected last

week due to lower mustard meal exports. The Futures settled 2.21%

lower w-o-w. Mustard output this season has declined significantly

and deficient rains Rajasthan would not provide proper moisture for

mustard sowing next season. This would keep the downside

restricted.

According to a circular issued by NCDEX, existing Special Cash

Margin of 5% on the Long side shall be increased to 15% on all therunning and yet to be launched contracts w.e.f beginning of

18/07/2012.

OutlookSoybean prices may trade sideways in the intraday. Downside

pressure may persist on account of higher area under cultivation

and expected higher yield of soybean due to good rains in MP.

Nevertheless, sentiment remains cautious as the soybean crop in

the US has suffered severe damage and thus USDA report to be

released on Friday may show downward revision in output. Also, the

possibility of an El Nino returning to Southeast Asia could hamper

output in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.








% Change

Unit Last Prev day WoW MoM Y

Pepper Spot-

NCDEX (Kochi)

Rs/qtl 42933 0.35 0.14 2.01 33

Pepper- NCDEX

Aug '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 45250 1.42 3.59 5.65 35

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Black Pepper NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Teleq



Black Pepper NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 43200-43650 44250-446

Black PepperPepper Futures traded on a positive note last week due to dwindling

stocks in the domestic markets, which lent support to the prices at lower

levels. However, lower demand for Indian pepper in the international

markets capped sharp upside movement. The Spot as well as the Futures

settled 0.14% and 3.59% higher w-o-w.

According to the circular released on June 13th

2012 the existing Specialmargin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running

contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of

day Friday June 15, 2012.

Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at

$8,400/tonne(C&F) while Vietnam was offering its produce at

$6,000/tonne for 500 GL. Brazil was offering its pepper at $6,150/tonne

for the B-Asta grade.

As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available

as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts.

(not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

ExportsAccording to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by

47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has

become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and

Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch )

According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

(MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around

1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June

2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume

and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of

Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around

13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard ).

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8%

in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344

tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of

February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in themonth of January 2012.

Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared

to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599

tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of

pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Production and ArrivalsArrivals of pepper in domestic market stood at 21 tonnes while offtakes

were 20 tonnes on Saturday.

Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20

lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of

24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to

latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh

tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of

year (2012).

Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by

3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to

2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand

production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by

5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last

year. Production is lowest in a decade.

OutlookPepper prices in the intraday trade sideways to positive note as lower

stocks in the domestic markets as well as buying ahead of the festive

season may support prices.

On the other hand reports of fresh arrivals from the Indonesia and

Malaysia might cap sharp gains in the short term.








Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM Y

Jeera Spot-

NCDEX(Unjha)

Rs/qtl 16294 0.00 -1.72 5.21 5

Jeera- NCDEX Aug

'12 Futures

Rs/qtl 15618 -2.01 -5.53 2.63 1

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Jeera NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequ


% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM Yo

Turmeric Spot-

NCDEX (N'zmbad)

Rs/qtl 5481 0.00 3.43 16.68 -13.

Turmeric- NCDEX

Aug '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 5518 -1.88 -7.88 10.67 -4.

Technical Chart – Turmeric NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequ


Unit Support Resistance

Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 15620-15725 15980-1610

Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 5465-5536 5730-5810

JeeraJeera Futures corrected last week on fears that the regulator may take

some action to curb the volatility. The spot prices also witnessed a

downside movement as export demand reduced due to very high

prices. Farmers are not selling their stocks anticipating better prices.

Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. The spot as well as

the Futures settled 1.72% and 5.53% lower w-o-w.Expectations are that large export orders may be diverted to India

from the international markets due to the ongoing civil war in Syria

which is hampering supplies. Export demand from Bangladesh,

Pakistan and other countries may support the prices at lower levels.

Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 1,000 tonnes

and around 5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices in the

international market of Indian origin are being offered at $3,000/tn

(c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering their produce.

Carryover stocks of jeera in the domestic market is expected to be

around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsUnjha markets witnessed arrivals of 4,000 bags, 2,000 bags lower

compared to previous day while off-takes stood at 3,000 bags on

Thursday. Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55

kgs). (Source: spot market traders).

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood

at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an

increase of 6%.

OutlookJeera prices are expected to trade sideways today. In the medium to

long term (Aug-September 2012) prices are likely to witness a bounce

back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey and crop there

is 30% short as compared to last year.

TurmericTurmeric witnessed a sharp correction last week after the after the

regulator disallowed creating of fresh positions in the August contract.However, the spot remained positive due to lower sowing this season.

Erode mandi remained closed towards the end of the week on account

of Janmasthmi, a local festival and will reopen on Monday. Rainfall in

Nizamabad is 24% lower than the normal as on 1/8/2012. Turmeric

has been sown in 0.44 lakh hectares in A.P as on 8th

August 2012. The

Futures settled 0.18% higher on Friday. As per circular issued by

NCDEX, no fresh positions will be allowed in respect of Turmeric

August 16, 2012 expiry contract from August 07, 2012 till the expiry

of the contract. Only squaring up of existing positions will be

allowed.

The pre expiry margin on Turmeric has been increased to 5% for last 7

trading days increased on a daily basis on both buy and sell side from

the existing 3% on daily basis for last 5 days.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsArrivals in Nizamabad mandi stood at 2,000 bags on Thursday.

Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical

high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-

11. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of

29% as compared to previous year.

According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012

increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

OutlookTurmeric prices are expected to continue to trade lower as

participants may square off their positions in the August contract after

the regulator disallowed creating of fresh positions.

In the medium to long term (Aug to September) prices may take cues

from the sowing figures.







Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Mentha Oil- MCX

Spot (Chandausi)

Rs/qtl 1524 -0.69 -0.21 9.48

Mentha Oil MCX –

July Futures

Rs/qtl 1311 -3.92 -6.37 -1.90

Source:

Technical Chart – Mentha Oil MCX Aug contra

Source: Te


% Change

Unit Last

Prev

day WoW MoM

Potato Spot-

NCDEX (Agra)

Rs/qtl 1155 0.00 -2.50 6.09

Potato- NCDEX

Aug '12 Futures

Rs/qtl 1177 1.75 -2.41 1.15

Technical Chart – Potato NCDEX Sept cont

Source: Te


Unit Support Resistan

Mentha Oil Aug Futures Rs/kg 1282-1295 1325-13

Potato NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1152-1168 1195-12

Potato MCX Sept Futures Rs/qtl 1183-1200 1230-12

Mentha OilMentha oil Futures corrected last week due to lower export demand

as export demand has been met. Also, gutkha ban led to lower

demand in the domestic markets. Increasing supplies in the domestic

markets also pressurized the prices. The spot as well as the Futures

settled 0.21% and 6.37% lower w-o-w.

Total Special Cash margin of 25% on the long side of Mentha Oil hasbeen reduced to 10% in the May contract and 5% in June contract

onwards from May 5, 2012.

For detailed reference please refer to the Circular No:

MCX/T&S/180/2012 dated 03/05/2012.

Production, Arrivals and ExportsAccording to spot market sources, the overall acreage is estimated to

increase from 1.75 lakh ha to 2.1 lakh ha this year. The overall

production of Mentha is expected to increase by 30% - 40% as

compared to last year.

Arrivals of the fresh crop are going on in the mandis and currently

stand around 1200 drums (each drum weighs 180 kgs).

Exports of Mentha during April 2011 to January 2012 witnessed a

decline of 6% to 12,850 tonnes as compared to 13,550 tonnes in the

same period last year.

OutlookIn the intraday trading session Mentha oil is expected to trade lower.

Lower export demand may pressurize prices. However, buying at

lower levels may emerge from stockists anticipating good demand

from pharmaceutical companies may support prices at lower levels.

In long to medium term (July-September) prices are likely to remain

under pressure due to peak arrival period.

PotatoIn intraday potato September futures settled lower owing to dull

demand in the market.

Commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

has banned launch of new Tarkeshwar potato contracts.

Also From 01-08-2012 no fresh positions shall be allowed during theStaggered Delivery period in all running contracts of Potato in MCX

and NCDEX. Only squaring off of existing positions will be allowed

during the Staggered Delivery period.

Production and Arrivals ScenarioAround 200-220 lakh MT potato had been stored in the country in

different cold storages during the current season. Although 27-30% of

the cold storage stocks are released so far from overall producing

belts, they are much lower compared to normal 35-38% every year.

According to NHRDF, The sowing of potato seed for Kharif production

in Karnataka completed but the area sown is adversely affected due to

less and delayed rains. The sowing in hills of Himachal Pradesh,

Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir are also completed. The seed

sowing in Maharashtra for Kharif is continued, which is delayed due to

delay arrival of monsoon, which is still scanty. The area for Kharif is

expected to be less or may be same with delayed planting compared

to last year, but it depends on further rains.

With reports of crop damages in Karnataka, the supplies from this

region to other states may also be affected as the overall output is

expected to decline by 70-75%. In fact, the state may have to rely on

the supplies from the north Indian markets.

OutlookPotato futures in intraday may correct further on account of weak

demand at higher levels, also the participants fear that the

government may take some measures to curb the rising prices.

Upcoming festive season might provide support to the prices in

Medium term.

daily agri report aug 13

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