d1.4.3 - seamless-if final version main features prepared by wp1 press esc
TRANSCRIPT
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D1.4.3-
SEAMLESS-IF final versionmain features
Prepared by WP1Press ESC
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D1.4.3
Triple I of SEAMLESS
Integrated framework for impact assessment (IA)Applications
Individual componentsInfrastructure software
Home
Main features of SEAMLESS-IF
Examples of applications
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D1.4.3
Assessment Procedure
Main features of SEAMLESS-IF
Pre -modelling
Modelling
Post -modelling
Problem definition
Scenario description
Indicator development
Definition of simulation experiment
Model selection andcomposition
Parameterizationand
simulation
Post -modelanalysis
Visualization of results
Documentation/communication
Pre-modelling
Modelling
Post-modelling
Problem definition
Scenario description
Indicator selection
Definition of simulation experiment
Model selection andcomposition
Parameterizationand
simulation
Post -modelanalysis
Visualization of results
Doc umentation/communication
Dat
a an
d kn
owle
dge
base
Use
rs/s
take
hold
ers
Pre -modelling
Modelling
Post -modelling
Problem definition
Scenario description
Indicator development
Definition of simulation experiment
Model selection andcomposition
Parameterizationand
simulation
Post -modelanalysis
Visualization of results
Documentation/communication
Pre-modelling
Modelling
Post-modelling
Problem definition
Scenario description
Indicator selection
Definition of simulation experiment
Model selection andcomposition
Parameterizationand
simulation
Post -modelanalysis
Visualization of results
Doc umentation/communication
Dat
a an
d kn
owle
dge
base
Use
rs/s
take
hold
ers
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D1.4.3
• Regional: Sustainable water and nitrogen management, Nitrate directive in the Midi-Pyrenees region in France
• European: Trade Liberalisation applied in Europe
Baseline of SEAMLESS-IF (hard coded, common for both/all applications)
Applications
Main features of SEAMLESS-IF
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D1.4.3
G20 (TC1) - scenario description
• Simplified representation of actual modalities• Export subsidies EU set to zero• Simulated tariff reductions:
– G20 proposal of December 2005 (G20)– December 6th 2008 agricultural modalities (WTO)
Applications
Developed countries Developing countries
Tiers G20 WTO Tiers G20 WTO
0 ≤ 20 45 50 0 ≤ 30 25 33.3
20 ≤ 50 55 57 30 ≤ 80 30 38.0
50 ≤ 75 65 64 80 ≤ 130 35 42.7
≥75 75 70 ≥130 40 46.7
Cap 100 n.a. Cap 150 n.a.
Developed countries Developing countries
Tiers G20 WTO Tiers G20 WTO
0 ≤ 20 45 50 0 ≤ 30 25 33.3
20 ≤ 50 55 57 30 ≤ 80 30 38.0
50 ≤ 75 65 64 80 ≤ 130 35 42.7
≥75 75 70 ≥130 40 46.7
Cap 100 n.a. Cap 150 n.a.
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D1.4.3
Applications
SEAMCAP
EXPAMOD
FSSIM-MP
GTAP
APES
FSSIM-AM
NUTS-2 and EU indicators
Farm and regional
indicators
Non-agricultural
global indicatorsData of
Nuts-2 and EU
Data of activities in 13 regions (out of 300
regions)
Global CGE
Agriculture EU
Extrapolate farm to EU
Bio-economic farm model
Agricultural production & externalities
Trade liberalisation
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D1.4.3
Applications
WTO proposal
Income declines in all E27 regions but Malta
Losses vary between 0.8 and -16.1%, with an average decline of -5.2% (excluding Aaland)
Change in agricultural income (%)
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D1.4.3
Applications
WTO proposal
-7.0
-6.0
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Cereals Feed Vegetable oils Dairy products Meat Fruit & veg Oilseeds
World EU27
Price change by product group (%)
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D1.4.3
Applications
WTO proposal
Change in farm income per region (%)
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D1.4.3
• Implementation of nitrate directive varies by regions:– Results for simulations in Midi-Pyrénées, similar analyses done
for other regions for which detailed data are available: Auvergne (FR), Zachodniopomorskie (PL), Sikasso and Koutiala (Mali)
• Nitrate directive in Midi-Pyrénées:– Improved management of nitrogen fertilization (alternative tech.)– Cross-compliance: 3% cut in premiums if technologies not usedOnly these two policy elements are implemented in FSSIM
– Limit to nitrogen in animal effluents to 170 kg/ha/year– Restriction of period for nitrogen application– Restricting fertilization near surface waters– Minimum quantity of vegetation in rainy periodsOther policy elements can be implemented in FSSIM
Applications
Nitrate directive (TC2) – scenario description
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D1.4.3
Applications
Nitrate directive
FSSIM-MP
APES
FSSIM-AM
Farm indicators
Detailed data on
activities in 4 regions
Agricultural production & externalities
Data of baseline (prices, premiums) from
SEAMCAP (& GTAP)
Bio-economic farm model
Regional indicators
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D1.4.3
base year
2013
(changes wrt base year)Baseline Nitrate
directiveTotal
Farm income (1000 €) 79 -7% -1% -8%
Premiums (1000 €) 41 -26% -1% -27%
Nitrate leaching (kg NO3/ha)
34 13% -29% -16%
Applications
Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees
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D1.4.3
Applications
Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees, effects on labour use (h)
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D1.4.3
Applications
Nitrate directive, example Midi Pyrenees, effects on yield (t/ha)
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D1.4.3
Specifications of baseline
Applications
• Describes situation in 2013 starting from 2003 data• Changes in general economic environment derived from
projections of others (inflation; population growth; trends in supply, demand and prices for EU (DG-Agri) and rest of world (FAPRI, FAO))
• Trade: Uruguay, ACP and EBA, plus updates of regional agreements like NAFTA
• Domestic policy: CAP reform 2003 accounting for national differences in decoupling
• Can adjust standard baseline through running experiment and using this as reference point
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Models and chains Data base
Indicators
Weather
Soil
Crops
Farms
Farm activities
Typologies
Indicators
Policies
Framework
Library
Factsheets
FSSIM-AM
FSSIM-MP
EXPAMOD
SEAMCAP
APES
Individual components
Not yet integrated
Stand-alone models
PICA
Main features of SEAMLESS-IF
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Model chains
Examples of applications
Integrated model
Stand alone model
Individual components
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D1.4.3
APES
Individual components
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D1.4.3
FSSIM (bio-economic farm model)
Individual components
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D1.4.3
Capri (agricultural sector model)
Individual components
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D1.4.3
EXPAMOD (upscaling farm-market)
Individual components
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D1.4.3
Model inputsModel outputsIntermediate resultsIndicators
Weather
Soil
Crops
Farms
Farm activities
Typologies
Indicators
Policies
Spatially data framework
Database
Administrative regions
Climate zones
Agri-environmental zones
stores
ModelsIndicatorsOntologyProjects
Links to
Individual components
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Database
Database management with PgAdmin
Individual components
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D1.4.3
Individual components
Examples of applications
Viability, performance, capital, maintenance, …
Sub-themes/issues
Ultimate goal, processes of achievement, means
Themes (goal based approach)
Sustainability, Sustainable development
Domains
Field, farm, region, country, EU, globe
Level of organisation (spatial scales)
Biophysical, economic, social, institutional
Dimensions
Viability, performance, capital, maintenance, …
Sub-themes/issues
Ultimate goal, processes of achievement, means
Themes (goal based approach)
Sustainability, Sustainable development
Domains
Field, farm, region, country, EU, globe
Level of organisation (spatial scales)
Biophysical, economic, social, institutional
Dimensions
Indicator framework
Classifiers of the goal-oriented framework
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Home
Indicator framework
Individual components
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D1.4.3
Indicator libraryList of available indicators (example)
Individual components
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D1.4.3
Indicator factsheetsIndicator information box
Supplementary information
Individual components
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SeamFrame
SeamGUI
Ontology
Database
SeamDBWMS
Replication
DomainManager
OpenMI
ProcessingEnvironment
Servlets
ModelWrappers
Core
Models
Requests
Requests
Hibernate
CodeGeneration
SeamFrame
Infrastructure software
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Model linkingSeamFrame
Infrastructure software
APES EXPAMODFSSIM-MP
FSSIM-MPwrapper
APESwrapper
EXPAMOD wrapper
SeamFrame : Component Framework
JAVA
C# GAMS
SEAMCAP wrapper
SEAMCAP
Ontology
Dat
abas
e
FSSIM-AM
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Visualiation of resultsSeamPRES
Infrastructure software
• Tables• Diagrams (Line, bar,
column, area, plot, pie)• Maps• …
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SeamPRES work flowSeamPRES
Infrastructure software
OpenOpen Get DataGet Data
ViewView AdjustAdjust
ViewViewChange SelectionChange Selection
RestartRestart
SaveSave
Make SelectionMake Selection
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End of presentation
D1.4.3-
SEAMLESS-IF final versionmain features
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