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CYCLOPS: Modelling the Role of Vegetation Type & Fire on Permafrost Thaw Aaron Thierry, C. Estop-Aragones, J.Fisher, I.Hartley, J. Murton, G. Phoenix, L. Street & M. Williams Slide 2 ~25% of NH land area 14001700 Gt of carbon Slide 3 Jorgenson et al 2010 Slide 4 IPCC WG1 Fig 12.33 Slide 5 Photo credit: Brandi Jo Petronio Slide 6 Kelly et al 2013 PNAS Increased fire frequency Slide 7 Natural Resources Canada Slide 8 CYCLOPS: Carbon Cycle Linkages of Permafrost Systems Slide 9 BurnedUnburned Slide 10 BurnedUnburned Slide 11 Frost Table at Mosquito Creek Active Layer Depth (cm) Burned Unburned Slide 12 Fisher et al. (in prep) Slide 13 Moss Soil organic & mineral Vegetation Solar (direct and diffuse) Solar (reflected) Latent heat flux Sensible heat flux Emitted and down-welling longwave Precipitation Transpiration Evaporation Drainage Ground heat flux Thaw/freezing Soil moisture Soil temperature Inputs: radiation, precipitation, air temperature, vapour pressure deficit [met stations] Parameters: soil and vegetation initial states, biophysical parameters [field studies, calibration] Outputs: energy balance dynamics, soil moisture, soil temperature profiles SPA: Soil Plant Atmosphere Model Slide 14 Day of Year Soil Temperature (C) Soil temperature dynamics Red line = met station Red symbols = survey Black line = model simulations Slide 15 SPA application at Firefox Slide 16 Modelled Active Layer Slide 17 Whats Next? Sensitivity to organic matter/moss cover Combine with Data on Soil C Stocks to help quantify C at Risk of Oxidation Link to soil decomposition simulations Slide 18 Thanks