cyberinfrastructure needs for african weather and climate arlene laing 1, tom hopson 2, arnaud...
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Cyberinfrastructure Needs for African Weather and Climate
Arlene Laing1, Tom Hopson2, Arnaud Dumont2, Mary Hayden2, Raj Pandya3, Mukul Tewari2, Tom Yoksas4, Vanja Dukic5
1UCAR/COMET, 2NCAR/RAL3UCAR/Spark, 4UCAR/Unidata
5University of Colorado-Boulder
Motivation• Africa: Major heat source that drives global atmospheric
circulation, tropical cyclone origin, primary source of mineral dust, most intense thunderstorms on Earth.
• Society vulnerable to environmental hazards and climate change.
• Need to share weather & climate information (observations, models, etc…) to serve society through :– Research – Education – Applications
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes in Africa 1980 – 2009Number of events
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Num
ber
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
MunichRE
Science Challenges/Critical Needs • Data Access and Dissemination
– Access to observations, numerical weather prediction models, and climate models
– Ability to share data & improve analysis and prediction
• Knowledge advance through research, education, and training– Collaborative research (atmosphere is everywhere)– Unidata (real-time data access, tools to analyze and integrate data)– COMET (interactive multimedia modules, virtual courses)
• Application of meteorological and climatological information to societal needs, e.g., – Food Security (famine early warning systems), Public Health, Water
Resource Management
• Effective engagement of end-users – Guide research priorities, give feedback on data usage, collect and share
data, and results
UCAR Africa Initiative (AI) Context:Managing Meningitis in the Sahel
• Periodic epidemics occur in the dry season
• Current vaccination strategy is reactive (i.e. contain epidemics, don’t prevent them)
• World Health Organization (WHO) decides where to send emergency vaccines.
• Even with this strategy, often less vaccines available than needed
Weather-meningitis link?
Adapted from Greenwood, 1999
• Nm. meningitidis epidemics observed in dust season and end with onset of rainy season
– Can humidity forecasts help identify regions where epidemic will end naturally, so that scarce vaccines can be moved elsewhere?
UCAR AI Objectives and Strategies1. Predict epidemic end by:
– Verifying Greenwood hypothesis linking meningitis season end and humidity
– Leveraging existing meteorological forecasts
2. Characterize risk factor by:– Surveying 222 households for knowledge, attitudes and practices– Testing disease models against atmospheric, demographic, and
epidemiological data
3. Characterize economic impact by:– Surveying 74 households for Cost of Illness
4. Inform reactive vaccination campaigns by:– Developing a useful Decision Information System that includes
archived and real-time data and analysis tools
Relative Humidity Impact on Meningococcal Meningitis
• Risk = f(Relative Humidity)• Probability of crossing alert threshold
Low Risk when Wet
High Epidemic Risk when Dry
• Hopson and Dukic found that knowing the RH two weeks ago improves accuracy in predicting an epidemic by ~25%1
• Coupled with a two week forecast, this indicates an improved ability to anticipate a roll-off in epidemic 4 weeks in advance
Relative Humidity Impact on Meningococcal Meningitis
16-Day ensembleRH forecasts
Meningitis Belt
Converted to probability of a meningitis alert3 weeks in advance
Africa Decision Information System (ADIS) for Meningitis
• WHO-initiated pilot project participants:– Benin, Nigeria, Tchad, Togo– WHO, Columbia/IRI, Lancaster
U. (UK), UCAR• Web-based interface provides:
– Ensemble forecast RH fields– Map of districts colored & sized
by meningitis attack rate– Interactive display of district-
level information including district-specific time series plots of ensemble RH forecasts
– Access limited to project participants (privacy concerns)
UCAR AI Next Steps• Refine forecast products and web-based end-user
interface from feedback from WHO pilot project participants
• Finalize data processing workflow at UCAR• Transfer technology to African Centre of Meteorological
Application for Development (ACMAD) – agreement in principle in-place
• Train ACMAD personnel in use of technology transferred
• Assist ACMAD personnel in use of freely-available data access and visualization tools from Unidata
Challenges in Technology Transfer• ACMAD computing infrastructure (important)
– Scheduled for upgrade in near to mid-term• Consistently available, “clean” power (critical)• High-speed access to global Internet resources
(critical); current capabilities (768 Kbps down, 256 Kbps up) limit ability to:– Access to high-volume TIGGE ensemble model forecasts– Access to global observational data– Serve relevant datasets– Provide products online
Meteorology Research and Education• Advances require access to variety of data:
– Satellite Products (exponential increase in volume)– Global numerical weather prediction products
• Initialize customized regional models• Apply to societal needs (e.g., meningitis vaccine
guidance)
– Regional numerical weather prediction products• Tailor to regional/local needs
– AMDAR (observations from commercial flights)• Aid aviation forecasting, improve aviation safety record
– Air quality sensor data• Regional/local data to assimilate into numerical models
Advances with new data, data sharing, and use in numerical models• New upper air
soundings• Resuscitated stations• Data shared with
European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)
• Improve temperature, wind predictions
Fink et al. 2011
NWP Forecast skill scores continue to improve
Most of Africa not yet benefitting because of lack of capacity
• Biomass Burning– Open burning– Cooking
• Dust• Health• Climate Interactions
Aerosols in Africa
Emissions Climate
Climate EmissionsChristine Wiedinmyer, NCAR
Climate Fire: Future Fire
Krawchuk et al. PLoSONE, (2009)
Rainwatch: Climate Analysis & Food Security in Niger
• Climate studies applied to disaster mitigation
• U of Oklahoma & Niger
• Ongoing updates of rainfall anomaly to Niger’s government
2011 Cumulative Daily Rainfall and Percentiles for Niamey Airport Station
13.483N - 2.167E
Courtesy: Peter Lamb
Why Satellite Remote Sensing?
EUMETSAT funded EUMETCast satellite downlinks in all African Weather Service offices
The Impending Data DelugeMore Data, New Data Sources• Environmental Satellites:
– US: Both GOES-R and JPSS will have data rates 30-60 times the current
– Europe: MSG 3rd generation and METOP
• Raw data rate: 3 terabytes per day
• Global, coupled models at a grid spacing of 1-5 km, integrated for multi-decades
• NCAR Global WRF model for use in Weather and Climate research
• TIGGE• New initiatives…
At Unidata: Tools and Support Are Central
• Enhance and distribute software developed by others• Meteorological display and analysis tools from UW-Madison (McIDAS-X),
National Weather Service/NCEP (GEMPAK, AWIPS-II), etc.• Remote access technologies: OPeNDAP (U of RI, NASA, and others), ADDE
(UW-Madison)
• Develop software in-house• Widely used tools for managing scientific data
(e.g., LDM, netCDF, UDUNITS, data decoders, etc.)• Java-based tools (IDV Framework built on top of VisAD) for 2D and 3D
visualization and next-generation, collaborative data analyses
• Build systems from software we support• Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system• THematic Realtime Environmental Data Distributed Services (THREDDS)
• Support software use via training, consultation, bug fixes, and upgrades
COMET: Education and Training via Distance Learning & Residence Courses
• Interactive, multimedia training using case scenarios, based on sound science and guided by innovative instructional design
• Provide modern conceptual framework for analyzing and forecasting major atmospheric features (e.g., tropical waves, jet streams, monsoon onset/migration)
• Web-based – train large numbers of people; similar learning outcomes as residence at less cost
• Virtual international courses for specialized training, requires high capacity band width for animations & interactive visualization tools
Think Globally, Model Locally
Personal tiles are subsets of larger, high-resolution data sets that have been packaged specifically for EMS real-time modeling
• Provides the highest resolution initialization data tailored to a user’s domain
• Only fields necessary for model initialization are provided• Dedicated data servers with restricted access• As much as 99% reduction in file size and bandwidth usage!• Process is entirely dynamic – no user configuration necessary
Personal Tiles
Robert Rozumalski, NWS
Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model EMS: WRF on a desktop
http://strc.comet.ucar.edu/software/newrems/
WRF EMS Personal tile for model initialization
Think Globally, Model Locally
EMS Personal tile size ~1.47mb at full 0.5 degree resolution!
A single global 0.5 deg GFS file size ~55.5mb
WRF
Domain
WRF EMS
• Global data set
WRF Domain
Global data set Robert Rozumalski, NWS
Implications for leveraging CI• Enhancing connections to user communities
– For input into research priorities– For application of research results– For data collection
• Supporting interdisciplinary, data-intensive research via data integration systems
• Enabling modeling with bandwidth and hardware• Supporting training via Distance Learning• Facilitating collaboration via long-distance
communications
Acknowledgements• NCAR is supported by the National Science Foundation• COMET is primarily funded by NOAA• Unidata is primarily funded by the National Science
Foundation
Contact InformationArlene Laing, [email protected] Hopson, [email protected] Dumont, [email protected] Hayden, [email protected] Pandya, [email protected] Tewari, [email protected] Yoksas, [email protected] Dukic, [email protected]