cvd risk assessment and prevention in 2019 and beyond: how
TRANSCRIPT
CVD Risk Assessment and Prevention in 2019and Beyond: How, When, and Why?Donald M. Lloyd‐Jones, MD ScM FACC FAHAEileen M. Foell ProfessorChair, Dept. of Preventive MedicineSenior Associate DeanDirector, NUCATS InstituteNorthwestern Feinberg School of Medicine
Disclosures
•Dr. Lloyd‐Jones has no RWI/COIGrant funding: NIH, CMS, AHA
•Members of the 2018 Cholesterol Guidelines and 2019 Primary Prevention Guidelines Panels had no RWI/COI
Case
52‐year‐old South Asian male presents for routine follow‐up
•PMH: CKD (eGFR 50 mL/min/1.73 m2), HTN•SH: denies tobacco, alcohol•Meds: lisinopril 10 mg PO daily•BP 142/86 mm Hg; Waist 42”•Lipids (mg/dL): TC 225 HDL‐C 35 LDL‐C 150 TG 200 •10‐yr ASCVD risk 9.7%
Case
Question #1: According to the 2018 ACC/AHA cholesterol and 2019 primary prevention guidelines, which risk category is most applicable for this patient?
A. Low risk primary preventionB. Borderline risk primary preventionC. Intermediate risk primary preventionD. High risk primary prevention
Case
Question #2: According to the 2018 ACC/AHA cholesterol and 2019 primary prevention guidelines, which initial treatment strategy should be considered for this patient?
A. Lifestyle modifications onlyB. Lifestyle modifications + moderate‐intensity statinC. Lifestyle modifications + high‐intensity statinD. Lifestyle modifications + high‐intensity statin + ezetimibe
Topics
•Rationale and evidence base for quantitative risk assessment
•Current guideline recommendations
•Strengths/limitations of existing risk scores
•Refining risk estimates for individual patients
Clinician‐patient discussionRisk‐enhancing factorsMeasurement of CAC
• Implementing risk assessment and shared decision making –practical approaches
Lloyd‐Jones et al. Circulation 2019; JACC 2019
Cholesterol Treatment Trialists
Blood Pressure Lowering
Treatment Trialists
•Allows identification of patients at sufficient risk to merit treatment with higher likelihood of net individual and societal benefit
•Allows direct comparison of potential benefits and harms from drug therapy
CTT, Lancet 2012BPLTTC, Lancet 2014Lloyd‐Jones et al., Circ and JACC 2018
Rationale for Absolute Risk Estimation
Karmali et al., Cochrane Reviews 2017Lloyd‐Jones et al., Circ and JACC 2018
Evidence Base for Risk Estimation
• Providing CVD risk score data had
statistically significant but
modest effects on:
• Initiation/intensification of BP and cholesterol medications
• Levels of CVD risk factors
• Estimated 10‐year CVD risk at follow‐up
• Harm very unlikely
• Use of validated, quantitative risk assessment scores appears to be appropriate, safe, and moderately efficacious in helping to control risk factors … with the potential for additional value to improve decision‐making
2017 ACC/AHA Hypertension Guidelines
2018 AHA/ACC/Multi‐Specialty Cholesterol Guidelines
Primary Prevention Recommendations for Adults 40 to 75 Years of Age With LDL levels 70 to 189 mg/dL
Referenced studies that support recommendations are summarized in Online Data Supplement 16.
COR LOE Risk Assessment‐Related Recommendations
I B‐NR
For the primary prevention of clinical ASCVD* in adults 40 to 75 years of age without diabetes
mellitus and with an LDL‐C level of 70 to 189 mg/dL (1.7 to 4.8 mmol/L), the 10‐year ASCVD risk
of a first “hard” ASCVD event (fatal and nonfatal MI or stroke) should be estimated by using the
race‐ and sex‐specific PCE, and adults should be categorized as being at low risk (<5%),
borderline risk (5% to <7.5%), intermediate‐risk (7.5% to <20%), and high‐risk (20%).
I B‐NR
Clinicians and patients should engage in a risk discussion that considers risk factors, adherence
to healthy lifestyle, the potential for ASCVD risk‐reduction benefits, and the potential for
adverse effects and drug–drug interactions, as well as patient preferences, for an individualized
treatment decision.
IIa B‐RIn intermediate‐risk adults, risk‐enhancing factors favor initiation or intensification of statin
therapy.
IIa B‐NR
In intermediate‐risk or selected borderline‐risk adults, if the decision about statin use remains
uncertain, it is reasonable to use a CAC score in the decision to withhold, postpone or initiate
statin therapy.
2018 AHA/ACC/Multi‐specialty Cholesterol Guidelines
Approach to Risk Assessment in 1o PreventionEstimate Absolute 10‐year ASCVD Risk
Low Risk0 ‐ <5%
High Risk≥20%
Intermediate Risk 7.5% ‐ <20%
If uncertainty or patient indecision remains, consider CAC score
and revise decision based on results
Lifestyleand drug therapy
Lifestylemodification
Borderline Risk 5% ‐ <7.5%
Clinician‐patient discussion considering risk‐enhancing factors and net benefit of therapy
Calculate
Personalize
Reclassify
C= Calculate: Use Pooled Cohort Equations for ASCVD Risk Estimation
•Recommended for use based on: Broad utilization and desired endpoint of hard ASCVD Most widely validated score in contemporary US populations
• SR identified 23 manuscripts evaluating PCE in diverse populations
PCE are well calibrated near decision thresholds (e.g., 7.5% 10‐year risk) in broad US clinical population
As with all risk scores, PCE can under‐ and over‐estimate true risk in some subgroups Reclassification by CAC well understood
•New recommendations ‐ Deploy PCE with: Expanded clinician‐patient discussion with consideration of risk‐enhancing factors Judicious use of CAC measurement in intermediate risk and selected borderline risk patients to reclassify risk
Performance of Pooled Cohort Equations in Diverse Population Samples: Predictable
‐Over‐EstimateRisk
Under‐Under‐EstimateRisk
Low SES, HIV,Inflammatory dz
High SES,engaged patients
Broad USClinical
Population
Reasonable Calibration
Clinician-Patient Discussion
Estimated 10-y ASCVD Risk
C = Calculate: Tools for Risk Estimation
•Pooled Cohort Equations – App or Online (or EHR programmable)
•ACC ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus (online/app) http://tools.acc.org/ASCVD‐Risk‐Estimator‐Plus/#!/calculate/estimate/
•AHA ASCVD Risk Calculator (online/app) http://static.heart.org/riskcalc/app/index.html#!/baseline‐risk
Guideline Clinical App
To download app search for “ACC
Guideline Clinical App” in your app
store
P = Personalize: Refine Risk for Individual Patients
Estimate Absolute 10‐year ASCVD Risk
Low Risk0 ‐ <5%
High Risk≥20%
Intermediate Risk 7.5% ‐ <20%
Lifestyleand drug therapy
Lifestylemodification
Borderline Risk 5% ‐ <7.5%
Clinician‐patient discussion considering risk‐enhancing factors and net benefit of therapy
P = Personalize: Refine Risk for Individual Patients
• Family hx of premature ASCVD•1o hypercholesterolemia (LDL‐C 160‐189 mg/dL)
•Metabolic syndrome•Chronic kidney disease•Chronic inflammatory conditions (RA, psoriasis, HIV)
•Hx premature menopause or pregnancy‐associated risk conditions
•High‐risk race/ethnic groups• Lipid/biomarkers 1o hypertriglyceridemia If measured:
Elevated hs‐CRP ≥2 mg/LElevated Lp(a) ≥50 mg/dLElevated apoB ≥130 mg/dLABI <0.9
Risk‐Enhancing Factors
Estimate Absolute 10‐year ASCVD Risk
Low Risk0 ‐ <5%
High Risk≥20%
Intermediate Risk 7.5% ‐ <20%
If uncertainty or patient indecision remains, consider CAC score
and revise decision based on results
Lifestyleand drug therapy
Lifestylemodification
Borderline Risk 5% ‐ <7.5%
Clinician‐patient discussion considering risk‐enhancing factors and net benefit of therapy
R = Reclassify Risk in Selected Patients
10‐year risk 5% ‐ <7.5% or 7.5% ‐ <20%
Below Threshold for Statin BenefitConsider avoiding or
postponing drug therapy.*
Above Threshold for Statin Benefit Recommend statin therapy.
Consider CAC measurement If performed:
Engage patient in discussion regarding net benefit of statin
therapy
CAC = 0
Decision for No Drug Therapy
Decision for Drug Therapy
CAC 1 – 99 and <75th
%ile for age/sex raceCAC ≥ 100 or ≥75th
%ile for age/sex/race
Subclinical atherosclerosis present; risk estimate similar. Repeat clinician‐patient discussion with new information. Consider statin therapy now or postpone
statin and consider repeat CAC in 5 years
Decision
Patient Undecided or Clinical Uncertainty Regarding Net Benefit of Statin Therapy
See ACC/AHA 2018 Guideline for Cholesterol Management
Consider risk‐enhancing factors
*Clinicians and patients may not wish to postpone therapy in patients with a CAC score of 0 and diabetes mellitus, heavy current cigarette smoking, or strong family history of premature ASCVD.
R = Reclassify Risk in Selected Patients
Nasir et al., MESA Study, JACC 2015
Example: MESA Study
7.5% 10‐year riskThreshold for considering statin
Reclassification of Risk by CAC
Nasir et al., MESA Study, JACC 2015
Example: MESA Study
Reclassification of Risk by CAC
Identifies pts with event ratesbelow net statin benefit range
Nasir et al., MESA Study, JACC 2015
Example: MESA Study
Reclassification of Risk by CAC
Approach to Risk Assessment in 1o Prevention: CPREstimate Absolute 10‐year ASCVD Risk
Low Risk0 ‐ <5%
High Risk≥20%
Intermediate Risk 7.5% ‐ <20%
If uncertainty or patient indecision remains, consider CAC score
and revise decision based on results
Lifestyleand drug therapy
Lifestylemodification
Borderline Risk 5% ‐ <7.5%
Clinician‐patient discussion considering risk‐enhancing factors and net benefit of therapy
Calculate
Personalize
Reclassify
Perform CPR …Then Treat Accordingly
•Risk‐based and risk‐enhanced algorithm for selecting patients considered for treatment with statins in primary prevention likely to lead to better decisions and greater patient satisfaction/adherence
•This CPR now or that CPR later
Step Resources and Tools
Estimating 10‐year and lifetime
risks for ASCVD
Many EHRs can calculate 10‐y ASCVD risk automatically ACC ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus AHA ASCVD Risk Calculator
Clinician‐patient discussion
ACC ASCVD Risk Estimator Plus
Mayo Clinic Shared Decision Making Cardiovascular Primary Prevention Choice
tool (https://shareddecisions.mayoclinic.org/decision‐aid‐information/decision‐
aids‐for‐chronic‐disease/cardiovascular‐prevention/ )
Martin SS et al., JACC 2015
Table 7 in 2018 Cholesterol Guideline
Interpretation of CAC score
(age/sex/race %ile)
MESA CAC Tools
(https://www.mesa‐nhlbi.org/Calcium/input.aspx)
Monitoring indicators of
response to therapy routinely
(LDL‐C, BP levels)
ACC LDL‐C Manager
(https://www.acc.org/LDLCmanager)
Supporting Resources and Tools
Case
52‐year‐old South Asian male presents for routine follow‐up
•PMH: CKD (eGFR 50 mL/min/1.73 m2), HTN•SH: denies tobacco, alcohol•Meds: lisinopril 10 mg PO daily•BP 142/86 mm Hg; Waist 42”•Lipids (mg/dL): TC 225 HDL‐C 35 LDL‐C 150 TG 200 •10‐yr ASCVD risk 9.7%
Case
52‐year‐old South Asian male presents for routine follow‐up
•PMH: CKD (eGFR 50 mL/min/1.73 m2), HTN, (no DM)•SH: denies tobacco, alcohol•Meds: lisinopril 10 mg PO daily•BP 142/86 mm Hg; Waist 42”•Lipids (mg/dL): TC 225 HDL‐C 35 LDL‐C 150 TG 200 •10‐yr ASCVD risk 9.7%
Case
52‐year‐old South Asian male presents for routine follow‐up
•PMH: CKD (eGFR 50 mL/min/1.73 m2), HTN, (no DM)•SH: denies tobacco, alcohol•Meds: lisinopril 10 mg PO daily•BP 142/86 mm Hg; Waist 42”•Lipids (mg/dL): TC 225 HDL‐C 35 LDL‐C 150 TG 200 •10‐yr ASCVD risk 9.7%
CaseRisk category• Intermediate risk primary prevention
Risk enhancing factors• South Asian• CKD• Metabolic syndrome (waist, HTN, low HDL‐C, elevated TG)
Initial treatment strategy:• Lifestyle modifications + moderate‐intensity statin
Case – Next Steps
After the clinician‐patient discussion, the patient is hesitant to initiate statin therapy based on the information discussed.
According to the 2018 ACC/AHA cholesterol guideline, what else may be done to assess this patient’s risk and aid in decision making?
2018 ACC/AHA cholesterol guideline
Summary• 10‐year and lifetime risk estimates can assist with decision making regarding intensity of prevention efforts
• These data start the discussion, they do not prescribe a drug• When applying risk scores to individual patients, in the context of a clinician‐patient discussion, consider personalized risk‐enhancing factors
• If clinical uncertainty or patient indecision remain, consider CAC measurement in intermediate risk and selected borderline risk patients
• CAC=0 can meaningfully down‐classify risk; statin avoidance reasonable
• CAC 1‐99 and <75th %ile for age/sex/race does not meaningfully reclassify risk; use clinical judgment
• CAC ≥100 or ≥75th %ile for age/sex/race can meaningfully up‐classify risk; confirms likely statin benefit
Take Home Points
•Treatment strategy should match ASCVD risk•With primary prevention + 10‐yr ASCVD risk 5 ‐ <20%, consider ASCVD risk enhancers
•Use clinician‐patient shared decision making to determine treatment strategy
•With uncertain treatment decision for 10‐yr ASCVD risk ≥7.5 ‐ <20%, may use a CAC score in the risk assessment and treatment decision
Lloyd‐Jones et al. Circulation 2019; JACC 2019