cuwcd’s central utah project bonneville unit water supply ......2017/11/01 · cuwcd’s central...
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CUWCD’sCentral Utah Project Bonneville Unit
Water Supply Variability StudyPreparing for an Uncertain Future
Cort Lambson, P.E.
Project Manager
November 1, 2017
Acknowledgement:HDR Engineering;
Principle Investigator:Steve Thurin, P.E. Senior Water Resources EngineerTed Shannon, P.E. (Modeling Guru Supreme)
The CUP – Bonneville Unit Water Supply
Variability Study is an opportunistic, proactive
example of responsible water system
management
• the Central Utah Project is complex & approaching full demand
3
PERSPECTIVE & BACKGROUND
THE Central Utah Project
4
5
CUP – M&I
CUP – ULS
PERSPECTIVE & BACKGROUND• The CUP Supply was planned to have a multi-year carry-over.
Customer agencies are planning on the CUP supplies to carry
them through drought periods
Source: 2014 Conservation Plan Update - JVWCD
PERSPECTIVE & BACKGROUND
• Protect What We Have
• Use It Wisely
• Provide For The Future
6
CUWCD is one of Utah’s water districts that established this center
Source: www.prepare60.com
7CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change.
PERSPECTIVE & BACKGROUND
Variability in Hydrologic period of record• 1979 Municipal & Industrial (M&I) System EIS: 1931 – 1973
• 1987 Final Supplement to M&I System EIS: 1931 - 1973
• 1998 CUPCA – Provo River Simulation Model (PROSIM): 1950-1989
• 2004 Supplement to the 1988 Definite Plan Report for the Bonneville Unit: 1950-1999
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
An
nu
al M
ean
Dis
char
ge (
cfs)
Water Year
Long-term NSIP Station near M&I System Area
Source: USGS
9CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change.
“standing on shoulders”
What Were THE GOALS OF this study?
10CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change.
IMPROVE the reliability of the Central Utah Project water supply
operations by:
1) Evaluating the combinations of meteorological and operational conditions
that stress the system.
2) Understanding the sensitivity to conditions that are more adverse than
those that have been observed.
3) Developing a tool to aid in operating the system in advance of adverse
conditions.
What Were THE GOALS OF this study?
11CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change.
The goal was NOT to develop the perfect and ultimate
DROUGHT Scenario that will please everyone and stress the
system exactly as the future will!
Instead, the multiple scenarios that were developed, will
provide indications of the kinds of Droughts that might be
experienced, and can be adjusted and tweaked in “What If”
scenarios to estimate possible shortage situations.
.
Project Purpose
• 1. Improve understanding of severe drought
conditions.
• Develop tool and procedures to aid in
recognizing and responding to potential adverse
conditions.
• 2. Examine the likelihood of future lower inflows
• Estimate the kinds of extreme drought
scenarios which could occur.
• 3. Aid in decision making
• Protect the reliability of water supplies by
proactive response.
• Predict the magnitude of water supply impacts.
• 4. Educate the public about the potential for supply
variability
12
Study Components
• Evaluate and Select Model Platform
• Develop Conceptual Model
• Implement on Selected Platform
• Develop Historical Hydrology
• Develop Adverse Hydrology
• Develop Predictive Model Capabilities
13CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
RiverWare© was Selected
• General purpose river system simulator
• Widely used and accepted
• Fully maintained and supported
• Allows inclusion of detailed policies
• Relatively easy to use
14CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
15CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
System Overview and
CUPSIM Model Schematic
Historical Hydrology
Inflows and Demands taken from PROSIM Model plus Bonneville Unit Definite Plan Report, which extensively verified the M&I System supply
Data Extended to 1950 – 2009 by correlation
15 Inflow Nodes, 20 Demands, 5 Reservoirs (with up to four accounts each)
16CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
Adverse Hydrology Development
Three Datasets Developed – 60 years of ADVERSE Hydrology:•
• Observed Resampled Approach
• Paleo Sampled Approach
• Downscaled GCM Projected Approach
•
17CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
Observed Hydrology
18CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
An
nu
al V
olu
me
in a
cre
-fee
t
Historic Annual Natural Flow - CUPSIM Node 1
Historic Annuals Historic Average
Observed Resampled Hydrology
19CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
An
nu
al V
olu
me
in a
cre-
feet
Historic and Adjusted Annual Flow - CUPSIM Node 1
Historic Annuals Adjusted Annuals
Historic Average Adjusted Average
All flows in the Strawberry and Duchesne River basins are 25% less in years 2001-2009
Paleo Hydrology
• Weber River Study developed 576 years of naturalized data.
• A subsequent Bear River study developed 1,200 years. This has not yet been incorporated
• A study of the upper Provo River is expected soon.
20
• ADD PALEO STUDY SLIDES
21
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
14
29
14
44
14
59
14
74
14
89
15
04
15
19
15
34
15
49
15
64
15
79
15
94
16
09
16
24
16
39
16
54
16
69
16
84
16
99
17
14
17
29
17
44
17
59
17
74
17
89
18
04
18
19
18
34
18
49
18
64
18
79
18
94
19
09
19
24
19
39
19
54
19
69
19
84
19
99
An
nu
al V
olu
me
in a
cre
-fee
tPaleo Simulated Natural Flow 1429 - 2004
22
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1431 1436 1441 1446 1451 1456 1461 1466 1471 1476 1481 1486 1491 1496 1501 1506 1511
An
nu
al V
olu
me
in a
cre-
feet
Historic and Paleo Simulated Natural Flow 1450-1511
PALEO Sampled Hydrology
23CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
An
nu
al V
olu
me
in a
cre
-fe
et
Historic and Adjusted Annual Flow - CUPSIM Node 1
Historic Annuals Adjusted Annuals
Historic Average Adjusted Average
GCM Projected Future scenarios
24CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
GCM Projected Future scenarios
25CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
GCM Projected Hydrology
26CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Per
cen
t o
f m
on
thly
ru
no
ff
CMIP3 Runoff Changes - Miroc3_2_medres (B1)
CMIP3 1950-2009 CMIP3 2020-2079 Natural Flow 1950-2009
GCM Projected Hydrology
27CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
An
nu
al V
olu
me
in a
cre
-fe
et
Historic and Adjusted Annual Flow - CUPSIM Node 1
Historic Annuals Adjusted Annuals
Historic Average Adjusted Average
Summary of Adverse Hydrology
28CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
AN
NU
AL
VO
LUM
E, IN
ACR
E-FE
ET
DRIEST TO WETEST YEARS
Historic and Adjusted Annual Natural Flow - CUPSIM Node 1 - Ordered
Historic
Observed Resampled
Paleo Sampled
GCM Projected
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
AN
NU
AL
VOLU
ME,
IN A
CRE-
FEET
DRIEST TO WETTEST YEARS
Historic and Adjusted Annual Natural Flow - CUPSIM Node 1 - Ordered
Historic
Observed Resampled
Paleo Sampled
GCM Projected
CUPSIM Model Results
29CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
35000019
50
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
2054
2058
2062
2066
Volu
me
[acr
e-fe
et]
Date
CUPSIM Model SimulationJordanelle Reservoir Storage: Historical vs. Paleo Sampled
Adverse
Historical
Adverse Average
Historical Average
Averages:Historical : 219,000 acre-ftAdverse: 193,000 acre-ftDifference : -12%
CUPSIM Model Results
30CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
An
nu
al D
ive
rsio
ns
(acr
e-f
ee
t)
Year
CUPSIM Model SimulationAnnual CUP M&I System Demands and Diversions: Paleo Sampled
Demand
Diversion
Average AnnualDemand : 109,400 acre-ftDiversion: 107,800 acre-ftDifference : -2%
CUPSIM Model Results
31CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
35000019
50
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
2054
2058
2062
2066
Volu
me
[acr
e-fe
et]
Date
CUPSIM Model SimulationJordanelle Reservoir Storage: Historical vs. Downscaled GCM
Adverse
Historical
Adverse Average
Historical Average
Averages:Historical : 219,000 acre-ftAdverse: 197,000 acre-ftDifference : -11%
CUPSIM Model Results
32CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study 2015. All information subject to change
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
An
nu
al D
ive
rsio
ns
(acr
e-f
ee
t)
Year
CUPSIM Model SimulationAnnual CUP M&I System Demands and Diversions: Downscaled GCM
Demand
Diversion
Average AnnualDemand : 113,600 acre-ftDiversion: 104,000 acre-ftDifference : -8%
Questions?
• Cort Lambson, CUWCD Project Manager• Phone: 801-226-7100
• Email: [email protected]
• Steve Thurin, HDR Project Manager• Phone: 435-659-1872
• Email: [email protected]
33CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study . All information subject to change.