___________________________________________________________________

Earth System

Ministry

India

Current Weather Status

Highlights of the past week

Precipitation:

o Rainfall /snowfall observed at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir during 15th

16th and at a few places on 21st February.

o Rain / Thundershowers observed at many places over Arunachal Pradesh and at a

few places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Assam &

at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar islands and Tamil Nadu & Puducherry

on one or two days during the week

Fog:

o Dense to very dense fog observed at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir and

dense fog at isolated places over Uttarakha

to two days during the week

Temperatures:

o Maximum temperatures of the order of 35ºC or more were reported over the parts of

Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala,

on 21st February 2018.

o The lowest maximum temperature of 20.4ºC was recorded at Chapra (Bihar) on 15th

February 2018 and the lowest minimum temperature of 4.8ºC was recorded at

Varanasi (East Uttar Pradesh) on 18th February 2018 in the plains of the country

during the week.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Government of India

System Science Organization

Ministry of Earth Sciences

India Meteorological Department

Dated: 22 February

Status and Outlook for next two weeks

week

/snowfall observed at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir during 15th

16th and at a few places on 21st February.

Rain / Thundershowers observed at many places over Arunachal Pradesh and at a

Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Assam &

at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar islands and Tamil Nadu & Puducherry

on one or two days during the week.

Dense to very dense fog observed at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir and

dense fog at isolated places over Uttarakhand and northern parts of Haryana on one

to two days during the week.

Maximum temperatures of the order of 35ºC or more were reported over the parts of

Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh

The lowest maximum temperature of 20.4ºC was recorded at Chapra (Bihar) on 15th

February 2018 and the lowest minimum temperature of 4.8ºC was recorded at

Varanasi (East Uttar Pradesh) on 18th February 2018 in the plains of the country

__________________________________

February, 2018

weeks

/snowfall observed at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir during 15th -

Rain / Thundershowers observed at many places over Arunachal Pradesh and at a

Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Assam & Meghalaya and

at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar islands and Tamil Nadu & Puducherry

Dense to very dense fog observed at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir and

nd and northern parts of Haryana on one

Maximum temperatures of the order of 35ºC or more were reported over the parts of

, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh

The lowest maximum temperature of 20.4ºC was recorded at Chapra (Bihar) on 15th

February 2018 and the lowest minimum temperature of 4.8ºC was recorded at

Varanasi (East Uttar Pradesh) on 18th February 2018 in the plains of the country

2

Weekly Rainfall Scenario (15 to 21 February, 2018)

During the week, rainfall was below Long Period Average (LPA) by 87% over the

country as a whole. Details are given below:

Regions Actual

Rainfall (mm)

Normal

Rainfall (mm) % Departure from

LPA

Country as a whole 0.9 6.6 -87%

Northwest India 0.5 12.7 -96%

Central India 0.0 2.0 -100%

South Peninsula 0.0 2.4 -99%

East & northeast India 4.5 10.0 -55%

The Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for the week is given in Annexure I.

Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (1 to January to 21 February, 2018)

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year’s winter season 2018

upto 21 February, 2018 is below LPA by 64%. Details of the rainfall distribution over the

four broad homogeneous regions of India are given below:

Regions Actual

Rainfall (mm)

Normal

Rainfall (mm) % Departure from

LPA

Country as a whole 12.7 35.4 -64%

Northwest India 19.8 66.9 -70%

Central India 6.7 14.0 -52%

South Peninsula 8.5 12.9 -34%

East & northeast India 17.2 45.7 -62%

Cumulative seasonal rainfall is given in Annexure II.

Chief synoptic conditions as on 22 February, 2018

o A fresh Western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1

km above mean sea level lies over western parts of Iran & neighbourhood. It is likely

to affect Western Himalayan region & adjoining plains from tomorrow.

o A trough runs from eastern parts of Bihar to south Bangladesh and extends upto 2.1

km above mean sea level.

o A trough of low at mean sea level runs from Lakshadweep area to south Gujarat

coast.

3

o A cyclonic circulation extending upto 2.1 km above mean sea level lies over

Southwest Bay of Bengal off south Tamilnadu-Srilanka Coasts.

o Another trough of low at mean sea level lies over south Andaman Sea and adjoining

southeast Bay of Bengal.

Large scale features as on 22 February, 2018

o La Niña conditions are prevailing currently and similar condition is likely to continue

during next one week.

o Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in phase 8 with amplitude more than 1 and is

likely to move in phase 1 with amplitude more than 1 during the week.

o Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in neutral phase (0.1°C).

Forecast for next two week

Weather systems & associated Precipitation during Week 1(22 to 28 February 2018)

and Week 2 (01 to 07 March 2018)

o Under the influence of a Western Disturbance, light isolated rain/snow would occur

over Jammu & Kashmir on today.

o Thereafter, a fresh Western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation

extending upto 3.1 km above mean sea level lies over western parts of Iran &

neighbourhood. It will interact with low level easterlies along with high moisture feed

from Arabian Sea in lower & upper levels on 23rd & 24th. Under its influence, fairly

widespread to widespread rain/snow would occur over Jammu & Kashmir and

Himachal Pradesh on 23rd & 24th. Isolated heavy falls over Jammu & Kashmir

and Himachal Pradesh is also very likely on 24th. Light isolated to scattered

rain/snow would also occur over Uttarakhand from 23rd to 25th.

o Light isolated to scattered rainfall would occur over Punjab on 23rd & 24th, over

Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Rajasthan, south Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya

Pradesh mainly on 24th and over and north Madhya Maharashtra from 23rd to 25th.

o Thunderstorm accompanied with hailstorm at isolated pockets may also occur

over above regions on 24th.

o Light isolated rain/snow would also occur over Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh during

1st week.

o Isolated rainfall activity would occur over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during the 1st

week. Isolated light rainfall activity may occur over Tamilnadu, Kerala, South Interior

Karnataka & Lakshadweep during second half of 1st week (Annexure III).

o Overall rainfall activity is likely to be near normal over Western Himalayan

region and above normal over extreme south Peninsula; and no rain likely over any

other part of the country during week 1 (Annexure IV).

4

o During Week 2, above normal rainfall activity is likely over Western Himalayan

region & northeastern states and below normal over extreme south Peninsula;

and no rain likely over any other part of the country during week 1 (Annexure IV).

Minimum temperature for week 1 & Week 2

o Minimum temperatures are very likely to be between 10 to 15°C over parts of

northern parts of the country outside Western Himalayan region (where likely to be

below 10°C) and more than 15°C over rest northern parts of country during week 1.

Considering the prevailing temperature and its trend during the week, No Cold wave

conditions likely over any part of country during week 1.

o Overall, minimum temperatures are very likely to be above normal by 2 to 6°C

over northwest, central & adjoining east India during 1st week (Annexure V).

o During 2nd week, there would be slight fall in minimum temperatures over most

parts of the country, however they are likely to be above normal by 2 to 4°C

over northwest, central & adjoining east India (Annexure V).

Fog:

o No dense fog is likely to occur over northern parts of the country during next one

week.

Cyclogenesis:

o No cyclogenesis is likely to develop over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during next

one week.

Next weekly update will be issued on next Thursday i.e. 01 March, 2018

5

6

Annexure I

7

Annexure II

8

Annexure III

METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2018

Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 22

FEB 23

FEB 24

FEB 25

FEB 26

FEB 27

FEB 28

FEB

1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH FWS SCT ISOL ISOL SCT ISOL SCT

3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL ISOL D D ISOL D ISOL

4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA ISOL D D D D D ISOL

5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL TS# ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL D ISOL

6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL D D D D D D D

7 ODISHA D D D D D D D

8 JHARKHAND D D D D D D D

9 BIHAR D D D D D D D

10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH D D ISOL TS# D D D D

11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D ISOL TS# D D D D

12 UTTARAKHAND D ISOL FWS TS# ISOL D ISOL ISOL

13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D D ISOL TS# D D D D

14 PUNJAB D ISOL SCT TS# D D D D

15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D SCT WS● TS# ISOL D ISOL ISOL

16 JAMMU & KASHMIR ISOL FWS WS● TS# ISOL SCT SCT ISOL

17 WEST RAJASTHAN D ISOL ISOL TS# D ISOL ISOL ISOL

18 EAST RAJASTHAN D D ISOL TS# D ISOL ISOL ISOL

19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH D D ISOL TS# ISOL D ISOL ISOL

20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH D D D D D D ISOL

21 GUJARAT REGION D.D. & N.H. D D D D D ISOL ISOL

22 SAURASTRA KUTCH & DIU D D D D D ISOL ISOL

23 KONKAN & GOA D D D D D D D

24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA D ISOL ISOL TS# ISOL D ISOL ISOL

25 MARATHAWADA D D ISOL TS# D D D D

26 VIDARBHA D D ISOL TS# D D D ISOL

27 CHHATTISGARH D D D D D D D

28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH D D D D D D D

29 TELANGANA D D D D D D D

30 RAYALASEEMA D D D D D D D

31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY D D ISOL ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL TS ISOL

32 COASTAL KARNATAKA D D D D D ISOL ISOL

33 NORTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D D D

34 SOUTH INT.KARNATAKA D D D D D ISOL ISOL

35 KERALA D D D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL

36 LAKSHADWEEP D D D D D ISOL ISOL LEGENDS:

WS WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)

SCT SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL ISOLATED (up to 25%) D/DRY NIL RAINFALL

● Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm)

●●

Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●

Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)

���� FOG * SNOWFALL # HAILSTORM ���� HEAT WAVE ����+ SEVERE HEAT WAVE

$ THUNDER SQUALL

DS/TS DUST/THUNDERSTORM ���� COLD WAVE ���� - SEVERE COLD WAVE

9

Annexure IV

10

Annexure V