Current Watches/Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border; Pamlico Sound; Eastern Albemarle Sound A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet to south of Surf City A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to south of Surf City; the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, including the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay; Western Albemarle Sound

Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 32.4° north, 78.5° west (previous location: 29.1° north, 79.1° west) LOCATION: 260 miles (415 kilometers) southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina MOVEMENT: north-northeast at 14 mph (22 kph) (previous movement: north at 7 mph (11 kph)) WINDS: 90 mph (150 kph) with gusts to 115 mph (185 kph) (previous sustained winds: 60 mph (95 kph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 115 miles (185 kilometers) from the center of circulation RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 25 miles (35 kilometers) from the center of circulation CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 mb (28.97 inches of mercury) (previous pressure: 997 mb) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 1 24-HOUR LANDFALL POTENTIAL: 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL:

Latest Satellite Picture (Image by NOAA)

None Low Med High

None Low Med High

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 1

Discussion Tropical Storm Arthur, located approximately 260 miles (415 kilometers) southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is currently tracking north-northeast at 14 mph (22 kph). Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. Both aircraft have measured surface winds of around 90 mph (150 kph), which is the basis for the new initial intensity. Arthur is forecast to remain in a low wind shear environment and move over warm water during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for Arthur to reach Category Two strength prior to its landfall or closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the wind shear is forecast to increase as Arthur interacts with a trough that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should steadily weaken after that. Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the advancing trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The forecast models are in good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the models increases some with one cluster showing a faster track and along the western side of the guidance. Another cluster is a bit slower and to the right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster faster track, but has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five. The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach and spread northward through the tropical storm and hurricane warning areas later today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Hurricane-force winds are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning this evening. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

- North Carolina within the Hurricane Warning area: 3 to 5 feet - Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds: 2 to 4 feet - Southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina: 1 to 3 feet - Extreme southeastern Virginia: 1 to 2 feet

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches – with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches – are expected over coastal areas of North Carolina through Friday. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible along the upper coast of South Carolina. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of coastal North Carolina through tonight. Swells generated by Arthur are affecting areas from the east-central coast of Florida northward to South Carolina. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 2

National Hurricane Center Forecast (Maximum sustained winds listed near times)

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 3

National Hurricane Center Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm-Force Wind Probabilities (≥40 mph (65 kph))

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 4

Wind Probabilities (≥60 mph (95 kph))

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 5

Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities (≥75 mph (120 kph))

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 6

Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Potential

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 7

Current ‘Spaghetti’ Model Output Data

(Latest forecast computer model runs from the National Hurricane Center)

Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. NEXT CAT ALERT: Friday morning after 5:00 AM Central Time.

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 8

*Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU

KTS1 MPH1 KPH1

NE Pacific, Atlantic

NW Pacific

NW Pacific

SW Pacific Australia SW

Indian North Indian

National Hurricane

Center (NHC)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS)

Bureau Of Meteorology

(BOM) Meteo-France

(MF)

India Meteorological

Department (IMD)

30 35 55 Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression

Tropical Low

Tropical Depression

Deep Depression

35 40 65

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 1 Tropical Cyclone

Moderate Tropical Storm

Cyclonic Storm 40 45 75

45 50 85

50 60 95 Severe Tropical Storm

Cat. 2 Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 2 Tropical Cyclone

Severe Tropical Storm

Severe Cyclonic Storm

55 65 100

60 70 110

65 75 120

Cat. 1 Hurricane

Typhoon

Typhoon

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone

Very Severe

Cyclonic Storm

70 80 130

75 85 140

80 90 150

85 100 160

Cat. 2 Hurricane 90 105 170

Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Intense

Tropical Cyclone

95 110 175

100 115 185

Cat. 3 Major

Hurricane

105 120 195

110 125 205

Cat. 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone

Cat. 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone

115 130 210

120 140 220

Cat. 4 Major

Hurricane Very Intense Tropical Cyclone

Super Cyclonic Storm

125 145 230

130 150 240

Super Typhoon

135 155 250

140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major

Hurricane >140 >160 >260

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 9

About Impact Forecasting®: Impact Forecasting is a catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield whose seismologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting’s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers. Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe model development firm integrated into a reinsurance intermediary. To find out more about Impact Forecasting®, visit www.impactforecasting.com. About Aon Benfield: Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world’s leading reinsurance intermediary and full-service capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world’s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals’ expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting® summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting® and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting’s webpage at www.impactforecasting.com. Copyright © by Impact Forecasting®. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting® has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting® does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Copyright © by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting® is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc.

Impact Forecasting | Cat Alert: Hurricane Arthur | Position and Intensity Data as of 10:00 AM Central Time, July 3, 2014 10