current bus routes

CURRENT BUS ROUTES

UKEAT003

Stamp

Lettering used in table below to indicate bus routes supported financially by the Council

Operational days Route numbers

A Mon-Fri 18, 387, 522, 524

B Mon-Sat 16, 59, 70, 73, 74, 79, 92, 93, 94, 99, 111, 111A, 112, 113, 114, 116, 118, 119, 200, 201, 304, 312, 332, 337, 338, 357, 358, 377, 521, 972, M33, M44

C Weds 300, 375, 379, 461

D Thurs 715

Bus operator Route number

Route description

A2B Bus & Coach (Royston)

18 Newmarket - Fulbourn - Teversham - Newmarket Road Park & Ride

Beestons 91 Ipswich - Hadleigh - Sudbury

Beestons 316 Hintlesham - Hadleigh - East Bergholt

Beestons 716 Bildeston - Lavenham - Thomas Gainsborough School - Sudbury Bus Station

Beestons 84C Hadleigh - Nayland Surgery

Beestons OC7 Felixstowe - Woodbridge - Otley College

Belle Coaches Mills 2 Knodishall - Saxmundham - Yoxford - Thomas Mills High School

Belle Coaches Mills 3 Saxmundham - Thomas Mills High School

Big Green Bus Company

12 Newmarket - Fordham - Soham - Stuntney - Ely


19 Haverhill - Linton - Burrough Green


46 Streetly End - Dullingham - Newmarket


47 Brinkley - Dullingham - Newmarket


Route description


204 Isleham - Snailwell - Newmarket


901 Ashley - Cheveley - Newmarket


902 Newmarket - Kirtling - Cheveley - Newmarket


903 Dullingham - Newmarket


904 Newmarket - Dullingham - Brinkley - Newmarket

BorderBus 146 Southwold - Pakefield - Beccles - Norwich

BorderBus 521 B Aldeburgh - Leiston - Saxmundham - Halesworth

BorderBus 522 A Peasenhall - Saxmundham - Leiston - Aldeburgh

BorderBus 524 A Southwold - Halesworth - Beccles - Bungay

BorderBus 580 Bungay - Beccles - Great Yarmouth

BorderBus Beccles Town Service

Beccles - Worlingham - Beccles Town Centre

BorderBus SJL1 Southwold - Kessingland - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL10 Sir John Leman High School - Bungy - Saxmundham - Leiston - Aldringham

BorderBus SJL2 Lowestoft - Carlton Colville - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL3 Oulton Broad - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL4 Carlton Colville - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL5 Carlton Colville - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL6 Barnby - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL7 Oulton Broad - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL8 Blundeston - Oulton Broad - Sir John Leman School

BorderBus SJL9 Reydon - Wangford - Wrentham - Sir John Leman School

Buckland Omnibus Co 250 Rendlesham - Aldeburgh - Thorpeness

Cambus Ltd 11 Cambridge - Newmarket


Route description

Cambus Ltd 12 Cambridge - Ely

Cambus Ltd 13 Cambridge - Haverhill

Cambus Ltd 613 Cambridge - Haverhill

Cambus Ltd 13A Cambridge - Haverhill

Cambus Ltd 13B Cambridge - Haverhill

Cambus Ltd 16A Gt Thurlow - Cambridge

Cambus Ltd X11 Cambridge - Bury St Edmunds

Cambus Ltd X13 Cambridge - Haverhill

Cars Smart KATCH Framlingham - Wickham Market - Wickham Market Rail Station

Carters Heritage Bus 193 Ardleigh - Manningtree - East Bergholt

Chambers 84 Colchester - Nayland - Leavenheath - Sudbury

Chambers 236 Sudbury - Long Melford - Clare

Chambers 237 Gt Cornard - Sudbury - Long Melford - Stour Valley Community School

Chambers 373 Glemsford - Whepstead - Horringer - Bury St Edmunds

Chambers 374 Clare - Glemsford - Whepstead - Bury St Edmunds

Chambers 375 C Sudbury - Bridge Street - Lawshall - Bury St Edmunds

Chambers 379 C Bury St. Edmunds - Bildeston - Hadleigh

Chambers 461 C Whatfield - Elmsett - Hadleigh

Chambers 750 Sudbury - Long Melford - Bury St Edmunds

Chambers 751 Great Cornard - Sudbury - Long Melford - Bury St Edmunds

Chambers 752 Bures - Sudbury - Long Melford - Bury St Edmunds

Chambers 753 Sudbury - Bury St Edmunds

Chambers 753 Bures - Sudbury

Chambers 754 Colchester - West Bergholt - Sudbury

Chambers 754 Sudbury - Long Melford - Gt Waldingfield


Route description

Chambers 756 Colchester - West Bergholt - Sudbury

Chambers 756 Clare - Long Melford - Sudbury

Chambers 757 Thomas Gainsborough School - Long Melford - Clare

Chambers 758 Long Melford - Gt Waldingfield - Sudbury - Gt Cornard

Chambers 784 Colchester - Great Horkesley - Newton - Sudbury

Chambers 84A Nayland - Stoke-by-Nayland - Sudbury

Chambers 89X Sudbury - Bulmer Tye - Halstead - Braintree

Chambers SC707 Gt Waldingfield - Ormiston Sudbury Academy

Coach Services 40 Kings Lynn - Brandon - Thetford

Coach Services 84 Thetford - Barnham - Ingham - Bury St Edmunds

Coach Services 86 Brandon - Thetford - Bury St Edmunds

Coach Services 200 B Mildenhall - Beck Row - Lakenheath - Brandon - Thetford

Coach Services 201 B Mildenhall - Lakenheath - Brandon - Thetford

Coach Services 332 B Bury St Edmunds - Honington - Euston/Thetford

Coach Services 86A Brandon - Thetford - Bury St Edmunds

Coastal Accessible Transport

Connecting Communities Suffolk Coastal East

Connecting Communities Suffolk Coastal East


Connecting Communities Suffolk Coastal South

Connecting Communities Suffolk Coastal South


Connecting Communities Suffolk Coastal West

Connecting Communities Suffolk Coastal West

Essex & Suffolk DaRT F315 Sudbury - Gestingthorpe - Wickham St Paul - Pebmarsh – Halstead

Fareline Bus & Coach Services

319 Syleham - Stradbroke - Hoxne - Denham - Eye


Route description


320 Bury St Edmunds - Norton - Bacton - Eye


475 Eye - Brome - Diss

Felix Taxis & Co. 700 Sudbury Town Service

Felix Taxis & Co. 715 D Stanstead - Lawshall - Sudbury

Felix Taxis & Co. 716 Long Melford - Subury

First Eastern Counties Buses Limited

1 Martham - Lowestoft


41 Bungay - Norwich


59 B Town Centre - Bealings


63 Ipswich - Framlingham


64 Ipswich - Aldeburgh


65 Ipswich - Rendlesham


66 Rail Station - Martlesham Heath


70 B Ipswich - Woodbridge


71 Woodbridge - Orford


73 B Old Felixstowe - Woodbridge


74 B Woodbridge - Old Felixstowe


75 Ipswich - Felixstowe (Grange Farm)


77 Ipswich - Felixstowe (Landguard Fort)


78 Ipswich - Levington


Route description


79 B Ipswich - Woodbridge


88 Ipswich - Stowmarket (Chilton Hall)


99 B Lowestoft - Southwold


101 Gunton - Hollow Grove


102 Lowestoft - Oulton Village Circular


105 Lowestoft - Oulton Rock Circular


106 Lowestoft - Burnt Hill


109 Lowestoft Town Centre - Hollow Grove


116 B Ipswich - Debenham


122 Lowestoft - Oulton Village Circular


800 London Road Park & Ride - Martlesham Park & Ride


916 Ipswich - Debenham High


972 B Woodbridge - Farlingaye High School


974 Kesgrave - Felixstowe


978 Northgate School - Grange Farm


979 Kesgrave High - Warren Heath


987 Needham Market - Stowupland High School


989 Ipswich - Claydon High School


Route description


998 Pakefield - Kessingland Beach


1A Martham - Lowestoft


41A Bungay - Norwich


66A Rail Station - Martlesham Heath


70A Ipswich - Woodbridge


99A Southwold - Bungay


X1 Norwich - Lowestoft








X41 Bungay - Norwich


X7 Ipswich - Felixstowe (Grange Farm)

Go Start Community Transport

112 Bildeston - Little Waldingfield - Sudbury

Hadleigh Community Transport

120 Ipswich - Sproughton - Elmsett - Whatfield


461 Stowmarket - Bildeston - Hadleigh


462 Stowmarket - Wattisham - Hadleigh


Connecting Communities Babergh - Hadleigh Area

Connecting Communities Babergh - Hadleigh Area


Route description


Connecting Communities Babergh - Lavenham Area

Connecting Communities Babergh - Lavenham Area


Connecting Communities Babergh - Shotley Area

Connecting Communities Babergh - Shotley Area

Halesworth Area Community Transport

511 Halesworth - Holton

Halesworth Area Community Transport

SBCB Reydon (- Walberswick) - Southwold - Reydon

Hedingham 83 Bures - Wakes Colne - Eight Ash Green - Stanway - Colchester

Hedingham 83A Colchester - Eight Ash Green - Wakes Colne - Bures

High Suffolk Community Transport

1 Southolt - Worlingworth - Monk Soham - Framlingham


2 Southolt - Kenton - Westthorpe - Bury St Edmunds


3 Redlingfield - Worlingworth - Debenham - Stowmarket


4 Bedfield - Worlingworth - Redlingfield - Diss


5 Southolt - Bedfield - Eye - Norwich


6 Bedingfield - Stowupland - Bury St Edmunds


7 Bedingfield - Ipswich


8 Southolt - Bedfield - Eye - Norwich

Ipswich Buses 1 Ipswich Town Centre - Gainsborough - Ravenswood - Futura Park

Ipswich Buses 2 Ipswich Town Centre - Ravenswood - Ipswich Hospital

Ipswich Buses 4 Ipswich Town Centre - Felixstowe Rd - Broke Hall - Bixley


Route description

Ipswich Buses 5 Ipswich Town Centre - Foxhall Road - Ipswich Hospital

Ipswich Buses 6 Ipswich Town Centre - Northgate - Ipswich Hospital

Ipswich Buses 7 Ipswich Town Centre - Dale Hall - Castle Hill - Anglia Retail Park

Ipswich Buses 8 Ipswich Town Centre - Whitehouse - Asda

Ipswich Buses 9 Ipswich Town Centre - Whitton - Castle Hill - Town Centre

Ipswich Buses 10 Ipswich Town Centre - Castle Hill - Whitton - Town Centre

Ipswich Buses 12 Ipswich Town Centre - Chantry (Cambridge Drive)

Ipswich Buses 13 Ipswich Town Centre - Chantry - Copdock Tesco

Ipswich Buses 14 Ipswich Town Centre - Gippeswyk Park - Town Centre

Ipswich Buses 15 Ipswich Town Centre - Stoke Park - Hadleigh Road - Town Centre

Ipswich Buses 16 Town Centre - Belstead Road - Halifax - Town Centre

Ipswich Buses 91 Ipswich - Hadleigh

Ipswich Buses 92 B Ipswich - Holbrook - Brantham - Manningtree

Ipswich Buses 93 B Ipswich - Capel St Mary - East Bergholt - Colchester

Ipswich Buses 94 B Ipswich - Tattingstone - East Bergholt

Ipswich Buses 95 Chantry (Ipswich) - East Bergholt High School

Ipswich Buses 97 Ipswich - Chelmondiston - Shotley Gate

Ipswich Buses 98 Ipswich - Holbrook - Shotley Gate

Ipswich Buses 118 B Ipswich - Otley - Framlingham (- Stradbroke)

Ipswich Buses 119 B Ipswich - Witnesham - Earl Soham - Framlingham

Ipswich Buses 194 East Bergholt - Stratford St Mary - Boxted - Langham

Ipswich Buses 387 Stowupland High School - Combs Ford

Ipswich Buses 464 Great Blakenham - Needham Market - Stowmarket High School

Ipswich Buses 511 Warren Heath - Bucklesham - Kesgrave

Ipswich Buses 615 Chantry - Tattingstone - Holbrook


Route description

Ipswich Buses 616 Ravenswood - Holbrook Academy

Ipswich Buses 914 Ipswich - Coddenham - Debenham High School

Ipswich Buses 988 Claydon High School - Bramford - Sproughton - Ipswich

Ipswich Buses 997 Suffolk One - Railway Station - Old Cattle Market Bus Station

Ipswich Buses 11A Whitton - Ipswich Town Centre - Northgate High School

Ipswich Buses 11B St Albans High School - Norwich Road

Ipswich Buses 15A Ipswich Town Centre - Hadleigh Road - Stoke Park – Town Centre

Ipswich Buses 18A Suffolk One - Sproughton - Ipswich

Ipswich Buses 3|Nacton Nipper

Ipswich Town Centre - Nacton Road - Futura Park

Ipswich Buses 3E|Nacton Nipper

Ipswich Town Centre - Nacton Road - Greenwich

Ipswich Buses 5E Ipswich Town Centre - Foxhall Rd - Hospital - Sidegate Lane

Ipswich Buses 8B Ipswich Town Centre - Farthing Road Ind. Estate - Sproughton - Bramford

Ipswich Buses 93A Ipswich - Capel St Mary - East Bergholt - Colchester

Ipswich Buses 95R Chantry (Ipswich) - East Bergholt High School

Ipswich Buses X93 Ipswich - Capel St Mary - Stratford St Mary - Colchester

Konectbus 41A Norwich - Poringland - Bungay

Konectbus X41 Norwich - Poringland - Bungay

Lords Travel 203 Isleham - Fordham - Newmarket

Mulleys Motorways 111 B Hitcham - Bildeston - Somersham - Ipswich

Mulleys Motorways 312 B Bury St Edmunds - Barrow - Ousden - Newmarket

Mulleys Motorways 355 Bury St Edmunds - Icklingham - Mildenhall

Mulleys Motorways 357 B Bury St Edmunds - Red Lodge - Mildenhall

Mulleys Motorways 358 B West Row - Mildenhall

Mulleys Motorways 377 B Bradfield St George - Rougham - Bury St Edmunds

Mulleys Motorways 955 West Row - Mildenhall - Bury St Edmunds Schools


Route description

Mulleys Motorways 956 Lakenheath - Mildenhall - Bury St Edmunds

Mulleys Motorways 988 Stowmarket - Elmswell - Woolpit - Thurston Community College

Mulleys Motorways 111A B Bildeston - Somersham - Ipswich

Mulleys Motorways M11 Bury St Edmunds Bus Station - Nowton Estate - BSE Bus Station

Mulleys Motorways M22 Bury Bus Station - Nowton Estate - West Suffolk Hospital - Bury Bus Station

Mulleys Motorways M33 B Bury St Edmunds Town Centre - Moreton Hall - Town Centre

Mulleys Motorways M44 B Bury St Edmunds - Mildenhall Road Estate - Howard Estate

Mulleys Motorways M55 Bury St Edmunds - Mildenhall Road Estate - Howard Estate

Mulleys Motorways M77 Bury St Edmunds Town Centre - Westley Estate - Town Centre

Mulleys Motorways M88 Bury St Edmunds Town Centre - Horringer Court - Priors Estate - Town Centre

Our Bus 86 Beccles - Norwich City Centre

Panther Travel 80 Boxted - Mile End - Colchester

Panther Travel 80A Dedham - Stratford St Mary - Boxted - Mile End - Colchester

Simonds 110 Diss - Palgrave - Wortham - Mellis - Yaxley - Eye

Simonds 112 B Diss - Stuston - Brome - Eye

Simonds 113 B Eye - Mendlesham - Ipswich

Simonds 114 B Eye - Debenham - Ipswich

Simonds 304 B Bury St Edmunds - Great Barton - Ixworth - Stanton - Wortham - Diss

Simonds 337 B Thurston - Ixworth - Stanton - Hepworth - Coney Weston - Market Weston - Garboldisham

Simonds 338 B Bury St Edmunds - Walsham-le-Willows - Market Weston - Diss

Simonds 552 Metfield - Fressingfield - Worlingworth - Framlingham

Simonds 581 Beccles - Bungay - Harleston - Needham - Diss

Simonds EE310 Palgrave - Rickinghall - Yaxley - Eye


Route description

Stagecoach in Cambridge

11 Cambridge - Newmarket - Bury St Edmunds


12 Cambridge - Newmarket - Ely


13 Cambridge - Linton - Haverhill


613 Linton - Haverhill


13A Cambridge - Linton - Haverhill


13B Haverhill - Linton - Cambridge


16A Gt Thurlow - Fulbourn - Teversham - Cambridge


X11 Cambridge - Newmarket - Bury St Edmunds


X13 Cambridge - Linton - Haverhill - Kedington

Star Cabs 12 Newmarket - Soham - Ely

Star Cabs 18 A Clare - Baythorne End - Sturmer - Haverhill

Star Cabs 46 Newmarket - Dullingham - Linton

Star Cabs 47 Newmarket - Dullingham - Brinkley

Star Cabs 348 Haverhill Town Service (Chapple Drive)

Star Cabs 349 Haverhill Town Service (Parkway and Clements)

Star Cabs 350 Haverhill Town Service (Arrendene & Chimswell)

Star Cabs 351 Gt Bradley - Withersfield - Haverhill

Stephensons of Essex 14 Bury St Edmunds - Haverhill

Stephensons of Essex 15 Bury St Edmunds - Haverhill

Stephensons of Essex 16 B Newmarket - Mildenhall - Bury St Edmunds

Stephensons of Essex 59 Haverhill - Ashdon - Saffron Waldon - Audley End

Stephensons of Essex 60 Haverhill - Radwinter - Saffron Walden - Audley End


Route description

Stephensons of Essex 310 Bury St Edmunds - Newmarket - Exning

Stephensons of Essex 311 Bury St Edmunds - Newmarket - Exning

Stephensons of Essex 384 Stowmarket - Haughley - Elmswell - Thurston - Bury St Edmunds

Stephensons of Essex 385 Stowmarket - Woolpit - Norton - Thurston - Bury St Edmunds

Stephensons of Essex 985 Bury St Edmunds Schools - Risby

Stephensons of Essex 14A Bury St Edmunds - Haverhill

Stephensons of Essex 14B Bury St Edmunds - Haverhill

Stephensons of Essex 15A Bury St Edmunds - Haverhill

Stephensons of Essex 16A Newmarket - Mildenhall - Bury St Edmunds

Stephensons of Essex Breeze 1 Bury St Edmunds Town Service

Stephensons of Essex Breeze 2 Bury St Edmunds Town Service

Stowmarket Minibus & Coach Hire

300 C Bury St. Edmunds - Pakenham - Ixworth - Ixworth Thorpe

Stowmarket Minibus & Coach Hire

387 A Gislingham - Mendlesham - Stowupland - Stowmarket

The Voluntary Network Connecting Communities Forest Heath

Connecting Communities Forest Heath

The Voluntary Network Connecting Communities St Edmundsbury

Connecting Communities St Edmundsbury

The Voluntary Network West Suffolk Hospital Ride

West Suffolk Hospital Ride

LOCAL BUS OPERATOR OPERATING

CENTRES

The following license data was obtained from https://www.vehicle-operator-

licensing.service.gov.uk/search/find-lorry-bus-operators

Licence number

Operator name Registered address Operating centre address Operating centre vehicle limit

PF2020005 A2B Bus & Coach (Royston)

1 London Way, Melbourn, Royston, SG8 6DJ

1 London Way, Melbourn, Royston, SG8 6DJ

9

PF0000003 Beestons The Coach Depot, Ipswich Road, Hadleigh, Ipswich, IP7 6BG

The Coach Depot, Ipswich Road, Hadleigh, Ipswich, IP7 6BG

40

PF0000089 Belle Coaches Hadenham Road, Lowestoft, NR33 7NF

Belle Coaches, Workshop, Aldeburgh Road, Aldringham, Leiston, IP16 4SX

30

PF0000089 Belle Coaches Hadenham Road, Lowestoft, NR33 7NF

B R Shreeve And Sons Ltd, Hadenham Road, Lowestoft, NR33 7NF

30

PF1125306 BorderBus Unit 3, Moor Business Park, Beccles, NR34 7TQ

Unit 3, Moor Business Park, Ellough Road, Beccles, NR34 7TQ

24

PF2011018 Buckland Omnibus Co

2 America House, Base Business Park, Rendlesham, Woodbridge, IP12 2TZ

2 America House, Base Business Park, Rendlesham, Woodbridge, IP12 2TZ

6

None Cars Smart 16A Falcon St, Ipswich IP1 1SL

16A Falcon St, Ipswich IP1 1SL

Not known

PF1119806 Carters Heritage Bus

Park Farm, Hilliards Road, Great Bromley, Colchester, CO7 7US

Park Farm, Hilliards Road, Great Bromley, Colchester, CO7 7US

2

PF0000238 Coach Services 1A Howlett Way, Thetford, IP24 1HZ

1A Howlett Way, Thetford, IP24 1HZ

45

PF0000238 Coach Services 1A Howlett Way, Thetford, IP24 1HZ

Wood Farm, Carbrooke, Thetford, IP25 6TA

37

None Coastal Accessible Transport

Suite 8, Colonial House, Station Road, Leiston, IP16 4JD

Suite 2, Colonial House, Station Road, Leiston, IP16 4JD

Not known

None Essex & Suffolk DaRT

Arrow Building, Station Road, Maldon, Essex, CM9 4LQ

Arrow Building, Station Road, Maldon, Essex, CM9 4LQ

Not known

https://www.vehicle-operator-licensing.service.gov.uk/search/find-lorry-bus-operators

https://www.vehicle-operator-licensing.service.gov.uk/search/find-lorry-bus-operators

PF0000069 Fareline Bus & Coach Services

Old Roses, Syleham Road, Wingfield, Diss, IP21 5RF

Old Roses, Syleham Road, Wingfield, Diss, IP21 5RF

2

PF1110807 Felix Taxis & Co.

8 Windmill Hill, Long Melford, Sudbury, CO10 9AD

8 Windmill Hill, Long Melford, Sudbury, CO10 9AD

12

PF0000323 First Eastern Counties Buses Ltd

Davey House, 7B Castle Meadow, Norwich, NR1 3DE

Roundtree Way, Norwich, NR7 9DA

121



Caister Road, Great Yarmouth, NR30 4DF

74



Star Lane, Ipswich, IP4 1JN 55



Vulcan Road, Hethersett, Norwich, NR6 6AE

46



Gas Works Road, Lowestoft, NR32 1UZ

44



Vancouver Avenue, King’s Lynn, PE30 5RD

20

None Go Start Community Transport

Unit 2, The Chilton Centre, Martins Road, Sudbury, Suffolk, CO10 2FT

Unit 2, The Chilton Centre, Martins Road, Sudbury, Suffolk, CO10 2FT

Not known

None Hadleigh Community Transport

First Floor, 100A Lady Lane Industrial Estate, Hadleigh, Ipswich, Suffolk, IP7 6BQ

First Floor, 100A Lady Lane Industrial Estate, Hadleigh, Ipswich, Suffolk, IP7 6BQ

Not known

None Halesworth Area Community Transport

The Railway Station, Station Road, Halesworth, IP19 8BZ

The Railway Station, Station Road, Halesworth, IP19 8BZ

Not known

None High Suffolk Community Transport

Cowslip Cottage, Bedfield, Woodbridge, IP13 7JD

Cowslip Cottage, Bedfield, Woodbridge, IP13 7JD

Not known

PF0000147 Ipswich Buses 7 Constantine Road, Ipswich, IP1 2DL

7 Constantine Road, Ipswich, IP1 2DL

78

PF0002189 Konectbus 5-7 John Goshawk Road, Rashes Green Industrial Estate, Dereham, NR19 1SY

7 John Goshawk Road, Rashes Green Industrial Estate, Dereham, NR19 1SY

70


Hedingham Omnibuses, 2 Stephenson Road, Gorse

40

Lane Industrial Estate, Clacton-On-Sea, CO15 4XA


Chambers, Meekings Road, Sudbury, CO10 2XE

32


Hedingham Omnibuses, Wethersfield Road, Sible Hedingham, Halstead, CO9 3LB

26


36R Ramirez Road, Rackheath Industrial Estate, Norwich, NR13 6LR

25


Hedingham Omnibuses, 215-217 High Street, Kelvedon, Colchester, CO5 9JT

19


Airport Park And Ride, Buck Courtney Crescent, Norwich, NR6 6JT

10


Hedingham Omnibuses, 14 Brunel Road, Clacton On Sea, CO15 4LU

6


Lorry Park, Fuller Road, Harleston, IP20 9EA

2

PF1120848 Lords Travel Unit 16, Saxon Business Park, Littleport, Cambs, CB6 1XX

Unit 16, Saxon Business Park, Littleport, Cambs, CB6 1XX

10

PF0000070 Mulleys Motorways

Mulleys Coach Depot, Stow Road, Ixworth, Bury St. Edmunds, IP31 2JB

Stow Road, Ixworth, Bury St. Edmunds, IP31 2JB

25

PF1131866 Our Bus 35 Englands Road, Acle, Norwich, NR13 3EQ

Units 3/4, M B Site, Norwich Road, South Burlingham, Norwich, NR13 4EZ

15

PF1095649 Panther Travel 11 Browning Road, Brantham, Manningtree, CO11 1QX

Iconfield House, Iconfield Park, Parkeston, Harwich, CO12 4PB

14


Colchester Lorry Park, Sheepen Road, Colchester, CO3 3LE

6


Parsonage Downs, Dunmow, CM6 2AT

2

PF0000705 Simonds Simonds, Roswald House, Oak Drive, Diss, IP22 4GX

Roswald House, Oak Drive, Diss, IP22 4GX

50


The Garage, Wreningham, Norwich, NR16 1AZ

3


94 Victoria Road, Diss, IP22 4JG

2

PF0000459 Stagecoach in Cambridge / Cambus Ltd

100 Cowley Road, Cambridge, CB4 0DN


129



St. Johns Street, Bedford, MK42 0DJ

113



351 Lincoln Road, Peterborough, PE1 2PF

87



Cambridge Road, Fenstanton, Huntingdon, PE28 9JB

71



Unit 55, Lancaster Way Business Park, Ely, CB6 3NP

40



Phoenix Way, Haverhill Business Park, Haverhill, CB9 7AE

20



Wisbech Road, March, PE15 8EU

12



155 Dog Drove South, Holbeach Drove, Spalding, PE12 0SD

3

PF1134589 Star Cabs / Big Green Bus Company

81 High Street, Haverhill, CB9 8AN

Moojuice Ltd, Manor Road, Haverhill, CB9 0EP

19

PF1134589 Star Cabs / Big Green Bus Company

81 High Street, Haverhill, CB9 8AN

The Lamb Yard, West Wratting, Cambridge, CB21 5LU

6

PF0006113 Stephensons / NIBS Buses

Stephensons Of Essex, Riverside Ind Estate, South Street, Rochford, SS4 1BS

Burfords Yard, Russell Gardens, Wickford, SS11 8BH

20



The Coach Station, Bruce Grove, Wickford, SS11 8BZ

17



Wash Road, County Coaches, Hutton, Brentwood, CM13 1DL

8

PF0000454 Stephensons of Essex

Riverside Industrial Estate, South Street, Rochford, SS4 1BS

Duddery Hill, Haverhill, CB9 8DR

35




30



Unit 3 Boreham Industrial Estate, Waltham Road, Boreham, Chelmsford, CM3 3AW

25



Quayside Industrial Estate, Maldon, CM9 5FA

20



Bus Depot, Car Park, Springwood Drive, Braintree, CM7 7YN

15



Talisman Coach Lines, Harwich Road, Great Bromley, Colchester, CO7 7UL

6



Unit H, Yard 2, Pools Lane, Highwood, Chelmsford, CM1 3QL

1

PF1001072 Stowmarket Minibus & Coach Hire

C/O Woolpit Garage, Church Street, Woolpit, Bury St Edmunds, IP30 9QT

Buxhall Business Park, Stowmarket, IP14 3BW

9

None The Voluntary Network

The Old Courts, 147 All Saints Road, Newmarket, CB8 8HH

The Old Courts, 147 All Saints Road, Newmarket, CB8 8HH

Not known

SUPPORTING POLICY AND

STRATEGY

POLICY AND STRATEGY

This section of the report assesses the broader transport policy and strategy context relating to Bus

Service Improvement Plans (BSIP) and the consequent creation of Enhanced Partnerships. At its

core, the BSIP is the formal strategy documentation required for each Local Authority (LA) to meet

the Government’s National Bus Strategy, Bus Back Better. The diagram presented below in Figure

D-1 illustrates the policy and strategy framework which the BSIP supports.

Figure D-1: BSIP Policy and Strategy Framework

NATIONAL POLICY AND STRATEGY CONTEXT

National Planning Policy Framework (2019)

The revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published on 24 July 2018 and was

updated on 19 February 2019. This sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and

how these are expected to be applied.

At the heart of the NPPF is a presumption in favour of sustainable development which includes

“three overarching objectives, which are interdependent and need to be pursued in mutually

Local Plan (2019 – 2036)

Local Transport Plan

LTP3 (2011 – 2026) Public Transport Strategy

(2011 – 2026)

Bus Service Improvement

Plan (BSIP)

Draft Local Transport Plan

LTP4 (2020 – 2036)

Transport Strategy 2036

Statutory Consultation

closed in Summer 2020

Enhanced Partnerships or

Franchise Arrangements

Local Plan (2011 – 2026)

superseded

supportive ways (so that opportunities can be taken to secure net gains across each of the different

objectives)”. These are; an economic objective; a social objective; and an environmental objective.

Chapter 12 addresses the aim of promoting sustainable transport, with paragraph 102 setting out

the core principles such as the identification of opportunities to promote walking, cycling and public

transport use. Furthermore, the environmental impacts of traffic and transport infrastructure should

be identified, assessed and taken into account by local authorities and developers – including

appropriate opportunities for avoiding and mitigating any adverse effects, and for net environmental

gains.

National Bus Strategy (2021) – Bus Back Better

The National Bus Strategy was published on 15 March 2021 by the Department for Transport (DfT).

The document outlines the framework for use of the £3bn of funding promised by the government in

2020 to improve and enhance bus service provision in England. The strategy outlines the

requirement for local authorities to have developed either Enhanced Partnerships or franchising

arrangements with bus operators by April 2022. These arrangements are the fundamental

framework for continued bus operation in England’s local authority areas and will be supported by

BSIPs which detail how the arrangements, and their inherent powers, will be used to improve local

bus services. BSIPs must be published by October 2021.

The strategy identifies a focus on service improvement through multiple objectives and

opportunities. Objectives to increase bus usage and provide greater reliability of service, especially

in the evening are a constant thread. Dedicated funding opportunities toward bus priority

infrastructure, zero emission buses, and intermodal bus connectivity are proposed.

The strategy also responds to the rapid decline of bus patronage during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 Bus Services Support Grant (CBSSG) continues to provide LAs with a discretionary

funding stream to improve or sustain bus services in the immediate situation.

Following the strategy, the government published the National Bus Strategy: Bus Service

Improvement Plans; Guidance to local authorities and bus operators (May 2021), which provided the

first advice on the production and development of BSIPs.

The National Bus Strategy places Zero Emission Buses (ZEBs) at the heart of the Government’s

vision for the transformation of the bus offering in England.

Overall ZEB Principles

The strategy sets out the Government’s five key principals for a ZEB fleet: These are:

To consider all technologies fairly, assessing their cost, contribution to decarbonisation and utility

Provide financial support and incentives needed for the market to scale up quickly

Take a place-based approach to investment wherever possible

Both operators and local authorities will be expected to play their part

Ensure plans lead to overall carbon reductions

Technology

The strategy states that “zero emission” means buses which run on electric batteries or hydrogen

and notes that battery electric has dominated ZEB deployment so far, but that both technologies

have strengths in different scenarios.

The strategy states that battery electric is a more efficient use of energy than hydrogen on current

technologies, but that hydrogen lends itself well to longer distance routes and rural operations. For a

ZEB deployment to qualify for government funding, it must use ‘green’ fuel or have a roadmap

towards obtaining fuel from green sources. It is acknowledged that hybrids and biofuels may feature

in local decarbonisation plans as the technology continues to develop to enable full ZEB operation.

Zero emission is preferred to low or ultra-low emission, and these should only be purchased where

full ZEB is not a viable option.

Funding

The strategy acknowledges the barriers to ZEB deployment presented by the high up-front capital

costs for vehicles and infrastructure. The Government commits to playing a role in the short term as

technologies continue to mature which is expected to see ZEB costs come down and achieve parity

with conventionally fuelled fleets through sustained orders for ZEBs allowing unit costs to fall as

production is increased, enabling manufacturers to achieve economies of scale.

The strategy also states that the Government will support new funding and financial models to lower

the costs of ZEB for operators, including new leasing and maintenance arrangements which are a

significant departure from traditional fleet ownership and maintenance.

Government financial support also includes the launch of the Zero Emission Bus Regional Area

(ZEBRA) scheme and All Electric Bus Towns (see following sections).

Linked to ZEB, and as part of wider reforms to bus funding, the Bus Service Operators Grant

(BSOG) is expected to be overhauled to incentivise ZEBs through higher rates paid per kilometre on

routes operated by ZEB vehicles, moving away from the current system of payments linked to fuel

consumed. This system is already used in Scotland and has been credited with attracting

investment in electric passenger vehicles to the country1.

Placed Based Approaches

In terms of regional strategy, a place-based approach to ZEB deployment is required given the need

for supporting infrastructure (electrical supply or hydrogen fuelling). ZEB deployments should

therefore consider allowing for more effective land use, addressing local air quality issues, and use

the right technologies that work for the topography of the area. This approach is needed to allow a

more strategic plan for energy networks in order to provide longer-term savings.

Decisions on the transition to ZEB should be taken collaboratively through local bus partnerships,

the strategy states:

Local authorities need to define the outcomes they want to see and when; work with energy

providers to integrate the needs of buses into wider network infrastructure plans; and play a

central role in funding and financing arrangements

1 RouteOne (2020) Ember: A watershed moment for the UK coach industry https://www.route-one.net/operators/ember-a-watershed-moment-for-the-uk-coach-industry/

https://www.route-one.net/operators/ember-a-watershed-moment-for-the-uk-coach-industry/

https://www.route-one.net/operators/ember-a-watershed-moment-for-the-uk-coach-industry/

Bus operators should take the lead in specifying the technical requirements for vehicles; develop

an understanding of the energy requirements for their fleets; and take the lead on the investment

required

Local standards for zero emissions should be set through bus partnerships or franchises

Transport Act (1985)

Proposals to deregulate local bus services were published in 1984 in the white paper ‘Buses’ and a

subsequent series of more detailed consultation papers. They were brought into effect by the

Transport Act 1985. This abolished road service licensing in Great Britain (though not in London)

from October 1986. It removed the duties of local authorities to co-ordinate public passenger

transport in their area and empowered them to subsidise public passenger transport services only

on condition that they went out to open tender.

Under the act, individual bus operators are responsible for the timetable, with the introduction of new

services dependent on the operator's opinion of its commercial viability. There is no requirement in

the Transport Act 1985 or its regulations for the commercial bus operator to consult before making

changes to the timetable and the position of bus stops. The criteria for registration did not include

any reference to public demand or to existing services and objections could no longer be made by

other operators or local authorities.

Passenger Transport Executives (PTEs) and county councils were given powers to secure, using

subsidy, socially necessary services which were not provided by the commercial market. Controls

over these services in terms of fare levels, type of bus and so on, could be maintained. Operators

had the right to participate in concessionary fare schemes and the Passenger Transport Authority

had powers to compel participation in the schemes. Operators were to be reimbursed for the net

financial loss incurred by participating in the scheme.

Transport Act (2000) and Local Transport Act (2008)

These documents have the common aim to strengthen the working relationship between bus

operators and local authorities in order to improve services provided to passengers. Following the

Transport Act 1985, concerns were raised from local authorities on how the act restricted measures

to successfully integrate buses as part of wider transport policy objectives.

The Transport Act 2000 allowed councils to work more closely with bus operators, legislating for

‘Quality Partnership’ schemes whereby the local authority would deliver improved infrastructure (e.g.

bus lanes, bus shelters) in return for operators adhering to set ‘standards of services’. The 2008

Local Transport Act expanded their scope by allowing for frequencies, timings and maximum fares

to be included where there were no admissible objections from relevant bus operators.

Bus Services Act (2017)

DfT guidance2 for local authorities to complement the Bus Services Act 2017 covers providing

inclusive services, improving environmental outcomes, maximising social value, improving the safety

2 Bus Services Act 2017: New powers and opportunities https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bus-services-act-2017-new-powers-and-opportunities

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bus-services-act-2017-new-powers-and-opportunities

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bus-services-act-2017-new-powers-and-opportunities

of bus services, tackling congestion and meeting the needs of rural communities. The guidance

includes general suggestions and recommendations to make improvements in these aspects of bus

service delivery.

The guidance refers to other legislation that local authorities should have regard for when procuring

and specifying bus services, including:

Equality Act (2010)

Public Services (Social Value) Act (2012)

On meeting the needs of rural communities, local authorities are strongly recommended to

undertake a ‘rural proofing’ exercise to consider the impacts of transport policies and programmes

on rural areas and where necessary, adjust those plans to achieve equally effective and successful

outcomes for individuals and businesses in rural areas. It is strongly recommended by DfT that rural

proofing is done for any review of transport provision.

The guidance makes several references to and suggestions for the application of DRT. It notes that

DRT can be a way of increasing ridership by providing a more flexible and responsive public

transport solution. Community transport operators are highlighted as being particularly suitable to

run DRT services. The guidance suggests deploying publicly funded DRT services to transport

passengers from isolated villages to bus stops and transport hubs where they can connect to

commercial bus services and complete their journeys, which keeps costs down both for the DRT

service and the commercial bus operator. On community transport, the guidance recommends that

local authorities consider how best to encourage and integrate community transport services into the

wider public transport network. It should be noted that non-commercial community transport services

are not covered by the franchising powers of the Act.

Taking a ‘Total Transport’ approach in rural areas is recommended by the guidance to bring

together various public sector transport services such as patient transport, social care services,

education transport, community transport and subsidised bus services to pool resources and reduce

duplication of resources. This follows a trial of the concept in different areas of England in 2015

which involved the creation of a ‘one-stop shop’ for transport services and information.

Future of Mobility Urban Strategy (2019)

The UK Government’s Future of Mobility Urban Strategy, published in March 2019, sets out the

‘grand challenge’ for mobility in urban settings and summarises the rapid changes underway in the

transport and mobility sector. It makes clear that public transport must remain fundamental to an

efficient transport system, with walking and cycling becoming the preferred option for short journeys.

The demographic challenges of a growing and aging population but travelling less due to increased

working from home and online service delivery are noted, with the trend of rural areas having a

greater proportion of older residents than urban areas expected to continue. The trend of fewer

young people holding a driving licence is also noted, which presents opportunities for urban areas

but challenges for rural areas.

The Future of Mobility Urban Strategy notes the following key changes in transport:

Data and connectivity are transforming journeys

Transport is becoming increasingly automated

Transport is becoming cleaner (in reference to vehicle emissions)

New transport modes are emerging

Travel demand is rising overall, but falling at an individual level

The population is aging, and travel choices show clear generational differences

Consumer attitudes are changing

New digitally enabled business models are emerging

Shared mobility is becoming more prevalent

The strategy lays out nine guiding principles for the government’s approach to the future of mobility:

1 New modes of transport and new mobility services must be safe and secure by design

2 The benefits of innovation in mobility must be available to all parts of the UK and all segments of

society

3 Walking, cycling and active travel must remain the best options for short urban journeys

4 Mass transit must remain fundamental to an efficient transport system

5 New mobility services must lead the transition to zero emissions

6 Mobility innovation must help to reduce congestion through more efficient use of limited road

space, for example through sharing rides, increasing occupancy or consolidating freight

7 The marketplace for mobility must be open to stimulate innovation and give the best deal to

consumers

8 New mobility services must be designed to operate as part of an integrated transport system

combining public, private and multiple modes for transport users

9 Data from new mobility services must be shared where appropriate to improve choice and the

operation of the transport system

Key risks in the future of mobility identified by the strategy are around safety of new transport

modes, ensuring that bus services remain viable, inclusion for people who do not (or cannot

because of disability) use the internet and smartphones, and ensuring security of personal data

used in mobility services.

Future of Mobility Rural Strategy (not yet published)

In November 2020, Government opened a call for evidence consultation on the development of a

Future of Mobility Rural Strategy, building on the Future of Mobility Urban Strategy published in

2019.

The consultation gave an overview of the emerging trends that Government has identified around

rural mobility and the Strategy, once developed, will set out how Government will seize the

opportunities and manage the risks around the future development of rural mobility. The consultation

noted that technology will drive radical changes in transport over the next decade, with major

changes for both users and operators. It noted that innovation in transport has particular potential in

rural areas where lack of access to a car has often excluded people from fully participating in

employment, education and leisure opportunities, however the challenge of ensuring that such

innovations are inclusive for all is acknowledged.

The consultation noted the following challenges around rural mobility:

Rural populations are older on average than urban areas (43 years old v 38 years old)

The population aged 65 and over is expected to grow by 50% between 2016 and 2039 and will

be experienced most in rural areas, where virtually no growth in younger populations is expected

In rural areas, cars are used more often and for longer trips than in urban areas

There is less opportunity for active travel in rural areas due to a combination of the longer

distances involved in making many trips and a lack of suitable infrastructure to facilitate active

travel journeys

Geographical aspects such as terrain can limit the route and transport opportunities in rural

areas.

The consultation acknowledged the risk that innovations in transport are not inclusive and do not

take account of the needs of people living in rural areas.

Infrequent public transport can make it difficult for elderly residents to travel even short distances to

access basic services, it was noted, with impacts on health and wellbeing.

The consultation pointed out that travelling by public transport in rural areas is more likely to involve

a change of mode than in urban areas due to less extensive and lower frequency services.

Integration between different modes is therefore important, as well as having the infrastructure to

support interchange, such as mobility hubs which co-locate several services together (transport and

non-transport) to reduce the need to travel.

The consultation specifically highlights the emerging new applications for DRT through digital

platforms and the potential to use ‘feeder services’ of shared taxis and DRT. The benefits of this

type of service to employers and for serving suburban areas were noted, as was the greater

potential for shared journeys in rural areas. Good quality data and digital connectivity is needed to

fully realise the benefits of DRT, the consultation noted.

The consultation referred to the Future of Urban Mobility Strategy guiding principles (given in the

previous section) and asked if these are appropriate for rural areas. The consultation acknowledged

that some of them may require adjustment to take account of the different markets in rural areas.

The consultation closed in February 2021 and the strategy is expected to be published later in 2021.

Future of Transport Regulatory Review

Government recently reported on the findings of its Future of Transport Regulatory Review, following

a consultation which ran between March and July 2020. The review covered regulation of buses,

taxis, private hire and micro-mobility services.

The review highlighted support for relaxing registration requirements around DRT and for changes

to Bus Services Operator Grant. A dominant view indicated that the area of operation for a DRT

should be a geographical area that is determined by demand. Several respondents believed the

operational area should be associated with a local transport hub so the services can interconnect

with other transport services, so not to overlap or present unfair competition with other transport

modes, particularly taxis. This would complement existing transport services. Some respondents

suggested that DRT services require to levy a surcharge for trips that could be undertaken on

existing public transport.

A consistent theme was that DRT operators and local authorities need to work together to determine

an operational area that benefits the local area and contributes positively to the area’s transport

network.

Following the review, Government has committed to engage with DRT service operators and collate

findings from the Rural Mobility Fund schemes and services deployed in response to COVID-19, to

inform the forthcoming National Bus Strategy.

Zero Emission Buses Regional Areas (ZEBRA)

In March 2021, the Government launched the Zero Emission Buses Regional Area fund (ZEBRA),

making up to £120million available in 2021/20223. The scheme is intended to help local transport

authorities introduce ZEB, reduce emissions, improve local air quality, and ensure stability of orders

for the British bus manufacturing sector. The fund will deliver up to 500 ZEBs, supporting the

Government’s wider commitment to introduce 4,000 ZEBs detailed earlier under the National Bus

Strategy. ZEBRA is a place-based scheme allowing areas led by local authorities to bid for funding

for the purchase of ZEBs and supporting infrastructure. The scheme is also intended to help the

Government understand the challenges to introducing ZEB and supporting infrastructure in order to

inform future policy. The scheme is intended to help test, trial and evaluate innovative ideas for ZEB

schemes.

Through ZEBRA, the Department for Transport (DfT) will contribute up to 75% of the cost difference

between ZEB and a standard equivalent diesel bus. For infrastructure, the DfT will contribute up to

75% of the cost from purchase and installation. Bids can be for vehicles, infrastructure, or both.

Buses eligible for the scheme are zero emission single deck and double deck vehicles. Minibuses

and coaches are not eligible. Buses must be certified as ultra-low emission or zero emission by the

Zemo Partnership (formerly the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership) to qualify. Buses which are zero

emission capable, such as diesel-electric hybrids, are not eligible. Buses powered by biogas or

biofuel are also not eligible. ‘Green’ energy is favoured (electricity from low carbon sources) but is

not a mandatory requirement. Areas that intend to use blue hydrogen (hydrogen derived from fossil

fuels) should set out a roadmap for sourcing the fuel from green hydrogen.

Support for infrastructure costs includes civil engineering works, hardware, charging units and

upgrades to the energy grid. This includes upgrades necessary to the grid to cater for increased

energy demand. Bidders are encouraged to consider innovative solutions to keep costs down, such

as smart charging, opportunity charging and energy storage. Bidders need to show evidence of

engagement with an energy company.

There is no limit or threshold on an area size, but the scheme is intended to support several areas

within a value of £25million-£35million. Private finance and leasing are encouraged as part of the

scheme, since this can reduce up-front costs. This could include finance or leasing companies

forming part of the consortia. The scheme is to provide capital funding only, i.e. it will not cover any

ongoing costs associated with the operation of ZEBs once introduced.

The local air quality challenge should be set out and how the proposal will address the problem.

3 UK Government (2021) Multi-million pound scheme for zero-emission buses across England launched https://www.gov.uk/government/news/multi-million-pound-scheme-for-zero-emission-buses-across-england-launched

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/multi-million-pound-scheme-for-zero-emission-buses-across-england-launched

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/multi-million-pound-scheme-for-zero-emission-buses-across-england-launched

All Hydrogen Bus Town

Following the popularity of the All Electric Bus Town scheme (2020/21), the Secretary of State for

Transport indicated in June 20204 that the Government will launch a similar ‘All Hydrogen Bus Town’

scheme to accelerate development of fuel cell electric buses and support the UK bus manufacturing

sector. While no further details are available the proposal has the support of industry including the

bus manufacturing sector.

Diesel Bus Sales Ban Consultation

To accompany the release of the National Bus Strategy, the Government consulted on specifying an

end to the sale of new diesel buses in England5. The consultation did not suggest a specific year or

time period but highlighted the 2030 ban for sales of new petrol and diesel cars and light vehicles. It

also noted that several bus operators have pledged to cease the purchase of new diesel buses

within the next few years and transition to full zero emission fleets between 2030-2037. The

consultation sought to understand the impacts on the industry from a sales ban, the barriers to

introducing such a ban and potential mitigation measures, as well as what bus types should be

included in a ban.

The industry body CPT6 noted in their response that a ban from 2030, if paralleling that already

specified for cars and vans, would require significant government support to ensure other bus policy

aims outlined in the National Bus Strategy are not undermined. Otherwise, there is a risk that

investment is diverted away from other initiatives such as integrated ticketing and frequency

enhancements. Too rapid a transition to ZEB could result in heavy costs for operators, CPT noted.

The consultation closed on 11 April 2021 and responses are currently being analysed.

The ten-point plan for a green industrial revolution (2020)

The Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution7, published in November 2020, sets out the

Government’s vision for accelerating the UK’s transition to a net zero carbon economy. It details

how public and private sector investment will be targeted to green the economy, creating new jobs

and achieving the Government’s dual policy goals of Net Zero and Levelling Up. The Ten Point Plan

includes the goals of Driving the Growth of a Low Carbon Economy (Point 2) and Green Public

Transport, Cycling and Walking (Point 5).

On hydrogen, it is stated that the Government will publish a Hydrogen Strategy in 2021 detailing

how it will establish hydrogen ‘SuperPlaces’ establishing up to 5GW of hydrogen capacity by 2030.

This was confirmed in March 2021 with an announcement of funding to establish the UK’s first ever

4 Passenger Transport (2020) Shapps reveals hydrogen bus town plan http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2020/06/shapps-to-announce-plans-for-a-hydrogen-bus-town/ 5 UK Government (2021) Ending the sale of new diesel buses https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/ending-the-sale-of-new-diesel-buses 6 Route One (2021) End of new diesel bus sales proposal ‘needs enabling support’ https://www.route-one.net/politics/end-of-new-diesel-bus-sales-proposal-needs-enabling-support 7 UK Government (2020) The ten point plan for a green industrial revolution https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-ten-point-plan-for-a-green-industrial-revolution

http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2020/06/shapps-to-announce-plans-for-a-hydrogen-bus-town/

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/ending-the-sale-of-new-diesel-buses

https://www.route-one.net/politics/end-of-new-diesel-bus-sales-proposal-needs-enabling-support

https://www.route-one.net/politics/end-of-new-diesel-bus-sales-proposal-needs-enabling-support

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-ten-point-plan-for-a-green-industrial-revolution

‘hydrogen transport hub’8 in Tees Valley to enable different modes of transport in different sectors to

be powered by hydrogen.

The Tees Valley hydrogen hub is expected to be fully operational by 2025 and will focus on trials,

testing and research, enabling the Government to better understand the potential role of hydrogen in

meeting net zero 2050 targets.

On Green Public Transport, Cycling and Walking, existing commitments to fund up to 4,000 zero

emission buses and introduce a National Bus Strategy are reiterated.

Transport Decarbonisation Plan (2020)

In March 2020, the Government published the policy paper Decarbonising Transport: Setting the

Challenge9, detailing how the Government intends to work with industry key stakeholders to develop

a transport decarbonisation plan. The plan, due to published in 2021, will detail the government’s

vision for how all road vehicles will become zero emission, and how public transport will be the

natural mode of choice for daily journeys. It will detail what Government, business and society needs

to do in order to make this change and deliver the required emissions reductions from transport in

order to meet the UK’s legally binding 2050 net zero emissions and climate change targets.

The plan will, when published, represent the UK’s first holistic strategy for decarbonising transport,

rather than focussing on specific modes as has typically been the approach used in government

policy until now. The document acknowledges that transport operators will need to embrace new

technology and innovation at a scale and pace not seen before.

The document details six strategic priorities for achieving transport decarbonisation:

Accelerating modal shift to public transport and active travel

Decarbonisation of road vehicles

Decarbonising how we get our goods

Place based solutions

UK as a hub for green transport technology and innovation

Reducing carbon in the global economy

Modal shift to public transport, decarbonisation of road vehicles and place-based solutions are likely

to be of particular importance for the bus sector.

The document notes that transport is now the largest sector by emissions and that emissions have

stayed broadly unchanged on 1990 levels while other sectors such as energy, agriculture, and

manufacturing have significantly decarbonised, hence the need to tackle transport emissions with a

sector-specific plan.

8 UK Government (2021) UK’s first ever hydrogen transport hub kick-started by £3 million government investment https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-first-ever-hydrogen-transport-hub-kick-started-by-3-million-government-investment 9 UK Government (2020) Creating the transport decarbonisation plan https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/creating-the-transport-decarbonisation-plan

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-first-ever-hydrogen-transport-hub-kick-started-by-3-million-government-investment

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-first-ever-hydrogen-transport-hub-kick-started-by-3-million-government-investment

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/creating-the-transport-decarbonisation-plan

Buses accounted for 3% of UK transport emissions in 2018. It is also noted that emissions from

buses have fallen by 40% on 1990 levels as at 2018, compared to only a 5% reduction for cars.

However, this may be explained partially by the fall in bus use during that time, with less bus

mileage being operated compared to 1990, in addition to the introduction of cleaner and more

environmentally friendly buses lowering emissions.

Sixth Carbon Budget (2020)

The Sixth Carbon Budget10, published in 2020, is required by the Climate Change Act and provides

advice to ministers on how the UK can meet its 2050 net zero targets by specifying an emissions

budget for each sector and key milestones for when significant or full decarbonisation will need to be

achieved. The report details a path to net zero for a range of sectors in the economy, including

surface transport.

The report states that new buses will need to be zero emission by 2035 in order to meet the

‘balanced pathway’ proposed towards net zero. The report notes the target by CPT members to buy

only ultra-low or zero emission buses from 2025. It is assumed that 96% of new bus and coach

sales will be zero emission by 2035. It is noted that biodiesel could play a transitional role for buses

but is not considered a permanent solution for surface transport.

REGIONAL POLICY AND STRATEGY CONTEXT

New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership Integrated Transport Strategy (2018)

The New Anglia Local Transport Board partners have developed an Integrated Transport Strategy

which provides a foundation for the newly formed sub-national transport forum: Transport East.

The strategy sets out broad measures to achieve the following goals:

Understand the current transport networks and how we can remain agile to future opportunities

and challenges

Set challenging but achievable ambitions based on evidence that describes the place and

transport solutions we want for Norfolk and Suffolk

Set out the themes where action and investment in transport improvements is prioritised

Identify actions and measures for success with partners to drive delivery and measure success

Provide foundations for an integrated, total transport solution to serve the growing economy, by

creating links to airports, ports and strategic corridors that link them

Transport East Investment and Delivery Plan (2020)

The Investment and Delivery Plan outlines the key priorities for Transport East, providing a strong

framework for achieving better strategic transport packages in towns and cities and along seven

strategic corridors. The Transport East partnership involves the local transport and planning

authorities of Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Southend-on-Sea and Thurrock, and this document provides

an overview of investment in these areas.

10 Climate Change Committee (2020) Sixth Carbon Budget https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sixth-carbon-budget/

https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sixth-carbon-budget/

https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sixth-carbon-budget/

The four corridors that include Suffolk and the related investment schemes are:

Connecting our Energised Coastal Communities: Midlands – King’s Lynn – Norwich – Great

Yarmouth

• A47 Tilney to East Winch dualling

• Norwich Western Link

• Acle Straight Dualling

• Great Yarmouth Third River Crossing

• A47 Wisbech to Peterborough dualling

Connecting the Heart of East Anglia: London – Chelmsford – Colchester – Ipswich – Norwich &

Suffolk Coast

• GEML strategic package (improvements in London, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk)

• A12 strategic package South (Colchester to M25)

• Chelmsford strategic package NE bypass, (Army and Navy, Beaulieu Park)

• A12 Strategic Package North (Ipswich to Suffolk Coast) including Woodbridge Bypass

• Lowestoft Lake Lothing third crossing

• Long Stratton Bypass

Cross-country connectivity: Norfolk and Suffolk to Cambridge – Midlands – South-West

• East-West rail package (enhanced Norwich and Ipswich connectivity and capacity to

Cambridge as Eastern section of national East-West Rail project)

• Felixstowe to Nuneaton rail freight capacity review and delivery package (Haughley junction

and Ely area, twin-tracking remaining single-track sections, and power increases)

• A11 Fiveways

• A14/A12 Copdock

• A14 package – junctions 37 A14/A142 (Newmarket), 43 and 44 (Bury St Edmunds), A14 to

Expressway standard and improved interchange at Copdock (also see A12 corridor)

• Support for cross-boundary projects in neighbouring areas, including the expansion of

Cambridge Autonomous Metro to settlements such as Mildenhall and Haverhill

New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership Economic Strategy for Norfolk and Suffolk (2017)

This economic strategy outlines several ambitions for the kind of places it wants Norfolk and Suffolk

to become:

The place where high growth businesses with aspirations choose to be

An international facing economy with high value exports

A high performing productive economy

A well-connected place

An inclusive economy with a highly skilled workforce

A centre for the UK’s clean energy sector

A place with a clear, ambitious offer to the world

The BSIP will support these ambitions, particularly the ambition to become a well-connected place.

LOCAL POLICY AND STRATEGY CONTEXT

Suffolk Local Transport Plan (2011-2031)

Suffolk County Council aims to promote economic resilience as well as private sector led growth, to

allow Suffolk’s economy to recover. This is part of the ‘Transforming Suffolk: Suffolk’s Sustainable

Community Strategy’ plan, with the objective to “Retain, enhance and value Suffolk’s natural and

historic environment”. This will be done by:

Maintaining and improving transport networks

Tackling congestion

Improving access to jobs and markets

Encouraging shift to more sustainable travel patterns

Improving learning and skills for the future

Creating a sustainable and green county

Providing safe, inclusive and healthy communities

Assessing any new developments which may have a significant effect on a European site

These aims are in line with Policy T6 of the East of England plan (2008). Policy T6 seeks to

improve, manage and maintain the regional road network while prioritising the strategic and regional

functions of the regions motorways, trunk roads and the primary route network with the aim of

achieving:

Improved journey reliability as a result of tackling congestion

Improved access to key centres for development and change, strategic employment locations

and priority areas for regeneration

Efficient movement of freight which cannot be carried by rail or waterway so as to minimise its

impact on the environment and local transport networks

Improved safety and efficiency of the network

Mitigation of environmental impacts

Maintenance of the benefits from managing traffic demand

The effective operation of ports and airports which act as international gateways

Transport mitigation strategy for the Ipswich Strategic Planning Area (ISPA) (2019)

This document, published in 2019, seeks to manage the transport-related impacts of additional

growth in the Plan period, based on the transport evidence which underpins the Plan. The purpose

of this work is to develop a transport mitigation strategy that informs an implementation programme

of measures that will support the ISPA local plans by delivering modal shift in Ipswich. The Ipswich

Strategic Plan Area (ISPA) incorporates Suffolk County Council (SCC), Ipswich Borough Council,

Babergh District Council, Mid Suffolk District Council and East Suffolk Council.

Transport mitigation strategy work focussed on modal shift both within the existing Ipswich

population and for new residential and employment development within ISPA. Significant impacts of

new development were identified on the Strategic Road Network, including the A14 and A12, and

other junctions around Ipswich. The strategy includes demand analysis for park & ride services and

supports the reopening of the Bury Road Park & Ride site. The document includes an

implementation programme, set out below:

A monitoring programme will establish a baseline and process to assess the delivery of the

implementation programme. This will help inform good practice and optimise the detail of the

overall programme going forward. An evidence-based approach will also support future

opportunities for funding.

A Smarter Choices programme to deliver modal shift through the engagement of businesses,

schools and communities that generate trips in Ipswich, it is anticipated that this will include some

businesses outside of the town boundary. Costs of implementation include incentives, for

example subsidised bus travel.

Set up a Quality Bus Partnership, initially this will be a voluntary partnership, to optimise and

grow the public transport provision within Ipswich. This will include the identification and

prioritisation of infrastructure improvements that will support the bus service. Identify where

demand responsive transport will provide optimum improvements to public transport and enhance

the more traditional bus service.

Work with Ipswich Borough Council to review the current parking provision and charging strategy,

to provide a form of demand management that has been demonstrated to be a key factor in

delivering modal shift.

Identify improvements to the current park & ride services and if the viability of an additional

service is proven, during phase 1 re-introduce further park & ride services.

Infrastructure will be required to support bus prioritisation, improvements to walking and cycling

networks and optimising the management of capacity of junctions. This will include the use of

UTMC.

The use of technology will be considered for all mitigation measures and improvements,

especially where it will provide a cost-effective mechanism to deliver the implementation

programme and improve modal shift.

SUFFOLK AGENT-BASED MODEL

1

We shape a better world

Suffolk Agent Based

Model Alpha

Summary Presentation

3

Agent Based Models

Agent Activities and trips

4

Suffolk County Council faces increasingly complex challenges as they

shape the future of transport in the county

All transport authorities and agencies are

facing new challenges:

• Understanding transport in a wider

context of equity and outcomes

beyond traditional transport metrics

• Sustainability and planning for a

transition to Net Zero

• New modes and ways of accessing

transport (MaaS, autonomy,

micromobility etc.)

• Changing behaviours motivated by

long term changes in working patterns

and responses to the pandemic

5

Traditional models assume fairly

consistent patterns of behaviour across

society; and are unable to represent

accurately today’s much more diverse

pattern of demand.

We can’t assume that people’s journey

patterns are predictable and consistent.

We can no longer model the peaks of

demand and be confident that our

transportation system has enough

capacity if it can serve these peaks.

There is currently minimal modelling to support these types of decision,

because the models work at an aggregate, rather than individual level

6

Agent Based Models are a way of responding to these challenges

because they consider individual choice

An ABM models individuals as

‘agents’ in the model:

• These agents are modelled as part

of a synthetic population

• They have a set of activities that

they try to undertake over the

course of a day

• They can choose to travel by

different modes, at different times,

and take different routes

• Over multiple iterations agents

learn what gives them the best

outcome

7

However, modelling can require a significant up front investment in

technology and data before it starts to deliver benefits

A traditional 4-Step strategic model

can take months of work before it is

ready to be used to answer questions.

Models also need to be built for

specific use cases and questions, and

are limited to specific time periods.

This means that models struggle to

respond to new questions in a timely

way, and many decisions are not

informed using modelling.

Therefore it is hard to explore and

experiment with new technologies

and approaches.

8

We propose that an ABM approach helps tackle these problems as they

can be built in and iterative and incremental way

Due to the modular nature of an ABM

model, we can build a model quickly

and then refine it over time, focusing

on the questions that are highest

priority.

This is especially true when we use

standardised datasets and tooling to

develop a first model quickly.

This allows us to understand the

strengths and weaknesses of a model

and focus efforts on areas which will

have the most impact.

Future demand scenarios

Determined by government

policy e.g. all small shops will

reopen

Current supply

Determined by current transport

timetables, workforce reductions

and real-time data

Agent-based

transport model

Scenario

analysis

Integrated

modelling of

options across

multiple transport

modes in order to

evaluate how well

they meet

objectives

Operation

al planning

Ability to support

detailed operational

planning of services

with reduced

workforce

Model outputs

Transport

interventions

Determined by city transport

authorities e.g. double the

number of buses on key

routesRepresentative population

Developed using ML

generative modelling

techniques

9

The Suffolk Alpha

Ipswich Activity Locations and Traffic Flows

10

We set out to build an Alpha model of the county over a period of 12

weeks

Project Objectives:

• Understand the data available,

including the use of Experian Mosaic

• Understand the questions the model

could be useful for

• Understand the strengths and

weaknesses of the model, and how it

might compare with traditional

approaches

• Deliver high level insights into the

transport network for Suffolk, including

understanding agent transport choice

Project Programme

11

The model that was built is multi-modal and represents the entire county,

with a complex network

• A detailed road network within Suffolk with a

5km buffer around the boundary

• A less detailed network covering the rest of

mainland Britain

• Full public transport detail for Suffolk including

commuter rail and scheduled bus services

• Public transport includes vehicles capacities

• Bus services interact with the road network and

are impacted by congestion

• Rail services are modelled as following

prescribed timetable

• Benchmark counts (link level) attached to the

network

Network Visualisation

12

We have also modelled an agent population across the county,

including freight

• Generated population representing Suffolk

residents (10% sample of population)

• Households, agents and activity plans sampled

from NTS travel diary data

• Activity locations modelled for individual

agents

• Integration of Experian Mosaic categories with

the population

• Activity locations assigned to specific

buildings/facilities based on activity type and

location

• Locations infilled for areas with low data

availability

• Freight population (from existing strategic

model)Travel Demand

13

The population and network were combined and simulated over 700

iterations of the same 24 hour period

• 700 iterations – agents can experiment

and test different plans over 700

iterations of the same ‘day’

• Simulations run at a 1 second

resolution

• Agents able to change mode, adjust

the time of journey, and route to

improve their utility scores

• Each simulated iteration ran in only 4.5

minutes using cloud compute

• Output 37 million agent events and 5

million plans

• Each model run during calibration

required approximately 12 hours Example Agent Utilities Over Time

14

Due to the granularity of the model, we get a wide range of detailed

outputs, and are able to benchmark the model against reality

Bus boarding and alighting counts

15

The model benchmarks very well given its maturity

Simulation vs. Benchmark Total Vehicle Volumes

Simulation vs. Benchmark Total Vehicle Volumes at Locations

• Strong match of link volume counts for

road traffic

• Post-simulation mode share statistics in

line with input population / National

Transport Survey

• Link speeds and flows realistic

• Comparison with current county

model is positive

16


• We also compared benchmarks at

specific locations, reaching good

agreement in almost all cases

• Again, the Alpha maturity may

account for some of the less accurate

matches as the data is drawn from

different sources, and not all baselined

to a specific date or count type

17


• We also compared the ABM to the

existing SATURN model, comparing

free flow speeds and traffic volumes

• This showed a good level of

agreement, however, it is worth noting

that the far more detailed network in

the ABM means that the pattern of

usage shown in each model is a more

valid comparison than the exact

values

ABM (left) and SATURN model (right) free flow speeds in Ipswich

ABM and SATURN AM flow comparison in Ipswich

18

Given the comprehensive nature of the outputs, we can look at

individual agents and their actions

• The outputs of the ABM show every

decision every agent has made, and

why they made it

• These outputs mean we can cut the

results by any factor in the agent

population

• During the simulation Agents create

different plans to test new modes,

timings, and routes

• Agents have a ‘memory’ of their top

ten plans, so we can see the things

that provided good utility but weren’t

selected at the end of the simulation

<person id=A>

<attributes>

<attribute gender=male/>

<attribute age=60 to 64/>

<attribute mosaic_group=M Family Basics/>

</attributes>

<plan score=100 selected=no>

<activity type=home, x=X1, y=Y1, end_time=07:10:00/>

<leg mode=bus, dep_time=07:20:00, trav_time=00:15:00>

{line_id: A, route_id: B, stop_id: C, …}

</leg>

<activity type=work, x=X2, y=Y2, end_time=17:20:00/>

<leg mode=rail, dep_time=17:35:00, trav_time=00:10:00>

{line_id: G, route_id: H, stop_id: J, …}

</leg>

<activity type=home, x=X, y=Y/>

</plan>

<plan score=110 selected=yes>




</leg>




</leg>


</plan>

<plan score=102 selected=no>




</leg>




</leg>


</plan>

</person>

Example Post Simulation Agent Plan Options

19

These unselected plans give us insights into decision making processes

that agents use, and highlight where modal shift might be achieved

• Looking at agents’ unselected plans,

we can look at those who had viable

public transport options, but instead

chose to drive

• We can look at the distribution of

these agents’ demographics, the

activities in their plans, and their

geographic distribution to highlight

opportunities to shift car users to Public

Transport

• This gives the geographic spread of

where potential public transport users

live Home locations of agents with the potential to shift to rail (orange) and bus (green)

20

Because we have the detail of each agent and sub-population, we can

look at which types of agents and activities might shift to public transport

• These unselected plans open up a

world of additional analysis that is

possible in the future

• We see patterns of potential bus

ridership; women are more amenable

or flexible to bus use, as are those

travelling to business activities

• We hope that some of these insights

will be useful in shaping the future of

Suffolk’s bus strategy

21

Going Beyond the Alpha

Public Transport Speeds

22

Next steps for the model are to focus in on questions that are best suited

to being answered using this methodology

• ABMs offer new capabilities that are

complementary to current modelling

techniques

• ABMs can be used to provide novel

insight on questions and topics

traditional model struggle with

• We would recommend focusing

on the analysis of subpopulations,

understanding and measuring equity,

and scenarios involving complex

policies like pricing

• We would also recommend questions

that benefit from fast, iterative scenario

assessment and analysis

23

The Alpha can grow in a number of different ways, iterating and

incrementing the current model

AlphaBeta Studies

Formal Calibration and Validation

Mature Model

• Initial functional

model

• Benchmarked

• Able to produce

insights

• Highlights areas

of focus

• Lower assurance

• Multiple studies

focusing on specific

questions suited to

ABM assessment

• Extend the model in

specific areas

• Answers questions

• Increasing

assurance

• Make the step to a

higher level of

assurance with

formal calibration

and validation

• DfT engagement or

guidance

• Mature, assured

model in use for

a wider range of

questions

• High levels of

assurance

24

The Alpha can grow and become more complex through adding in

additional simulation features

There are a number of features that we

could add in to the Alpha that are part of

the simulation framework, but weren’t

suitable for the Alpha:

• Additional modal granularity: park and

ride, shared vehicles etc.

• Demand Responsive Transport and

Mobility as a Service (MaaS)

• Road pricing

• Emissions and carbon calculations

Ipswich Network and Activities

25

We can also incorporate new data sources

Given the scale and detail of the model,

there are always opportunities to add in

additional data sources, for example:

• Mobile Network Data

• GPS data or travel diaries

• Additional surveys

• More benchmarks – boarding and

alighting numbers, station usage, more

detailed traffic flows

• Better freight data

We recommend that any future

expansion of the model is done in

response to specific questions, rather

than as modelling for its own sake

26

In summary, the ABM approach has delivered on its objective to show a

rapid, yet detailed initial model build, that can add value as it grows

• The Suffolk Alpha has shown that it is

possible to build a complex,

multimodal, county scale model in a

very short time

• The model performs remarkably well

and has already produced useful

insight into Suffolk’s transport

challenges

• There are a number of ways to take

the model forward, but should be

focused on specific questions

• While ABMs are still emerging

technology, they can provide a good

complement to current strategic

models

County Road Network

1

We shape a better world

Suffolk Agent Based

Model Alpha

Scenarios Analysis to Support Bus

Back Better Strategy

September 2021

2

Contact

Nick Bec (Project Manager)

[email protected]

Gerry Casey (Technical Lead)

[email protected]

Matt Chilvers (Project Director)

[email protected]

Arup Agent Based Modelling

[email protected]

Technical Team

Theodore Chatziioannou

Andrew Kay

Kasia Kozlowska

Gerard Lovett

Rory Sedgewick

Fred Shone

Yuhao Sun

3

Methodology


4

Previous Work

• The Suffolk Alpha showed that it is

possible to build a complex, multi-

modal, county-scale model in a very

short time

• The model is fully multi-modal,

covering car, rail, bus, and active

modes

• The model performs well against a

number of benchmarks, but is not

formally calibrated and validated

• Nevertheless, it is able to provide

insights into how changes to the

system will impact important factors,

such as mode share

5

Suffolk Bus Strategy Scenario Design

We model four experimental scenarios:

• Scenario 1 “Saturation”: Identify the extent of change that can be feasibly achieved using

only increases to existing bus route frequencies and operating hours.

• Scenario 2 “Increased Frequency”: Prioritise existing bus routes for service frequency increases

• Scenario 3 “24hr Operation”: Prioritise existing bus routes for service operating hours increases

• Scenario 4 “Market Towns”: Prioritise new bus routes for connecting selected market towns

In all cases, we use the simulation to identify aggregate changes in travel, such as mode shift from

other modes onto buses. We additionally focus on the attributes of households and persons who

change their behavior.

The scenarios are not intended as realistic future scenarios, but instead should be treated as

experiments used to prioritise interventions, identify the demographic groups most impacted by the

changes, and establish the extent of achievable changes.

6

Scenario 1: "Saturation"

15 min headway and 24hr extension

• All existing route frequencies extended to 24hr operation and 15 min headway

• Adds 81,312 new services (~vehicles)

Scenario 2: "Increased Frequency"

15 min headway

• Increases existing bus route frequencies to at least 15 min headway

• Only routes with more than one service are changed

• Adds 10,408 new services

Scenario 3: "24hr Operation"

24hr service extension

• Extends existing bus routes to run 24 hours a day

• Extended services use average IP frequency

• Minimum frequency is once per hour

• Services only running outside the IP are not extended

• Adds 7,748 new services (~vehicles)


7

Scenario 4: "Market Towns"

New Connections

• Adds 33 new bus routes between selected "Market Towns"

• New services arrive and depart at central locations only

• New services have 15-minute frequencies and operate for 24-hours

• Adds 9,850 new services


Bury St Edmunds

Ipswich

Lowestoft

Haverhill

Felixstowe

Newmarket

Clare

Sudbury

Mildenhall

Red Lodge

Brandon

Thurston

Ixworth

Stowmarket

Hadleigh

Framlingham

Reydon

Bungay

Aldeburgh

Woodbridge

HalesworthEye

ShotleyCapel St Mary

Beccles

Insights Summary


Summary of Frequency and Operating Hour Scenarios

• Suffolk’s current bus mode share is approximately 3.3%

• The ABM indicates that saturating current routes would achieve, at most, a ~9% bus mode share

• Achieving an even greater bus mode share would require additional routes, or other measures, beyond

increasing frequency and operating hours

• Although the impact of the Saturation Scenario (1) on the bus mode share is greatest, it is the least "efficient", based on change per additional service required

• Increasing frequency is the most efficient intervention; however, we recommend focusing on both the best performing frequency and operating hour changes

Scenario New Services Bus Mode ShareChange in Bus

Mode ShareEfficiency*

1: Saturation 81,312 8.97% +5.24% 13.4

2: 15min Frequency 10,408 5.51% +1.78% 35.5

3: 24hr Operation 7,748 4.45% +0.78% 19.3

*Defined as new bus trips per new service

Insights Summary: Scenario 2 - Increasing Frequency

• Scenario 2 increases bus operating frequencies to 15-minutes, but

maintains the same operating hours

• Running all services at 15-minute frequency increases the bus mode

share to 5.51% (+1.78%)

Line ID RouteNew Boardings per Additional

Vehicle

64 Ipswich reds Aldeburgh - Woodbridge - Ipswich 44.6

106 Lowestoft - Oulton Broad - Burnt Hill - Lowestoft 34.7

77 Felixstowe Flyers Ipswich - The Trimleys - Felixstowe 30.8

66 Ipswich redsIpswich - Kesgrave - Grange Farm -

Martlesham Heath30.5

105 Lowestoft - Oulton - Lowestoft 29.6

93Ipswich - Capel St Mary - East Bergholt -

Colchester29.0

M33 Bury St Edmunds - Moreton Hall 27.7

88 Ipswich reds Stowmarket - Needham Market - Ipswich 27.5



101 Gunton Estate - Lowestoft - Carlton Colville 22.7

385Stowmarket - Haughley - Woolpit - Bury St

Edmunds22.5

15 Haverhill - Chedburgh - Bury St Edmunds 21.6

146 Southwold - Pakefield - Beccles - Norwich 20.7

92 Ipswich - Holbrook - Brantham - Manningtree 20.4

• Approximately 40 % of the new bus trips come from people switching from

walking trips and another 40% from car trips

• New bus users are most likely to be low income and female

• Based on additional boardings per additional service vehicle, the

following lines are recommended for further consideration:

Bury St

Edmunds

Ipswich

Lowestoft

Haverhill

Felixstowe

Newmarket

Insights Summary: Scenario 3 - Extended Service Hours

• Scenario 3 maintains operating frequency of all buses but extends

their operating hours to 24 hours

• Extending service hours has significant impact on bus usage in the

evenings, approximately doubling pm peak boardings

• Overall bus mode share increases to 4.45% (+0.72%)

Line Route

New Boardings

per Additional

Vehicle

521Aldeburgh - Leiston - Saxmundham -

Halesworth37.5

753 Colchester - Sudbury - Bury St Edmunds 33.7


384Stowmarket - Haughley - Woolpit - Bury St

Edmunds29.5

64 Ipswich reds Aldeburgh - Woodbridge - Ipswich 22.8

92 Ipswich - Holbrook - Brantham - Manningtree 22.1

116 Ipswich - Coddenham - Debenham 21.8

M33 Bury St Edmunds - Moreton Hall 20.9


99A Coastal Clipper Southwold - Halesworth - Bungay 19.7

93Ipswich - Capel St Mary - East Bergholt -

Colchester19.1

146 Southwold - Pakefield - Beccles - Norwich 17.5

524 Southwold - Brampton - Beccles/Bungay 17.5

113 Diss - Eye - Ipswich 16.0

118Ipswich - Witnesham - Otley/Earl Soham -

Framlingham15.7

• These additional trips are concentrated on key corridors serving the large

towns; inter-county services to Norwich and Cambridge also see some of

the highest increases

• Extending service hours into the evening on key routes should be

considered a high priority for the bus strategy, and the following routes are

identified for further analysis:

Bury St

Edmunds

Ipswich

Lowestoft

Haverhill

Felixstowe

Newmarket

Insights Summary: Scenario 4 - Market Town Connectivity

• Scenario 4 identifies and compares 33 new lines

connecting market towns

• Overall, bus mode share increases to 3.88% (+0.15%)

• All services around Bury St Edmunds and the connection

between Ipswich and Hadleigh are particularly

successful at attracting bus trips

• The following new links are suggested for further analysis:

Location 1 Location 2 Boardings

Bury_St_Edmunds Haverhill 630

Ipswich Hadleigh 580

Bury_St_Edmunds Sudbury 490

Bury_St_Edmunds Elmswell 490

Clare Haverhill 430

Bury_St_Edmunds Ixworth 420

Reydon Halesworth 410

Red Mildenhall 330

Lowestoft Beccles 330

Bury_St_Edmunds Newmarket 290

Lowestoft Bungay 290

Lowestoft Halesworth 260

Ipswich Framlingham 250

Bury_St_Edmunds Brandon 240

Bury_St_Edmunds Melford 230

Bury St

Edmunds

Ipswich

Lowestoft

Haverhill

Felixstowe

Newmarket

Clare

Sudbury

Mildenhall

Red Lodge

Brandon

Thurston

Ixworth

Stowmarket

Hadleigh

Framlingham

Reydon

Bungay

Aldeburgh

Woodbridge

HalesworthEye

ShotleyCapel St Mary

Detailed Results


Mode Shift Analysis


Mode share Comparison

Mode Benchmarks BaselineScenario 1

Saturation

Scenario 2

Increased Frequency

Scenario 3

24 hour Operation

Scenario 4

Market Towns

bike 2.81% 2.57% 1.79% 2.32% 2.38% 2.49%

bus 3.30% 3.73% 8.97% 5.51% 4.45% 3.88%

car 81.88% 77.22% 75.04% 76.58% 77.09% 77.29%

rail 0.97% 1.23% 1.27% 1.17% 1.32% 1.18%

walk 11.04% 15.25% 12.93% 14.43% 14.75% 15.16%

Change in Mode Shares

ModeScenario 1

Saturation

Scenario 2

Increased Frequency

Scenario 3

24 hour Operation

Scenario 4

Market Towns

bike -0.78% -0.25% -0.19% -0.08%

bus +5.24% +1.78% +0.72% +0.15%

car -2.18% -0.64% -0.13% 0.07%

rail +0.04% -0.06% +0.09% -0.05%

walk -2.32% -0.82% -0.50% -0.09%

• Bike and walk mode share is negatively impacted by all scenarios, although it should be noted that bus trips

will include walking legs, therefore there can be a net increase in distance of active travel for example

• As expected bus mode share increases in all scenarios, although only very marginally in the Market Towns

Scenario (4)

• Car mode share generally decreases, the very small increase in the Market Towns Scenario (4) is likely due to

random variation in the model and can be treated as zero

• Rail share is negatively impacted, but only very marginally

Total boardings comparison at peak periods

Class Period Peak Time Total boardings

baseline

AM (0:00-7:00) 7 6690

AM (8:00-9:00) 9 11090

IP (10:00-16:00) 13 10640

PM (17:00-18:00) 17 9860

PM (19:00-23:00) 19 3550

scenario1

AM (0:00-7:00) 7 14620

AM (8:00-9:00) 8 23960

IP (10:00-16:00) 13 22970

PM (17:00-18:00) 17 22690

PM (19:00-23:00) 19 15340

scenario2

AM (0:00-7:00) 7 9650

AM (8:00-9:00) 9 16280

IP (10:00-16:00) 13 16100

PM (17:00-18:00) 17 13140

PM (19:00-23:00) 19 5050

scenario3

AM (0:00-7:00) 7 7590

AM (8:00-9:00) 9 12050

IP (10:00-16:00) 13 11220

PM (17:00-18:00) 17 11570

PM (19:00-23:00) 19 7500

scenario4

AM (0:00-7:00) 7 7060

AM (8:00-9:00) 9 11420

IP (10:00-16:00) 13 11060

PM (17:00-18:00) 17 10210

PM (19:00-23:00) 19 3970

• The peak boarding periods for all scenarios are almost

identical; AM peak at 9, IP peak at 13 and PM peak at 17

• Boarding counts in scenario 4 show minimal increase

compared to baseline

Total boardings = total daily boardings via all stops

Table: Total boardings comparison at different periods

Scenario 1: Bus Saturation

Scenario 2: Increased Frequency

Scenario 3: Extended Services

Scenario 4: Market Town Hubs

Mode Shift Analysis – Spatial Analysis


Baseline bus trip mode share for origin, destination and hh location (msoa-level)

• Ipswich and Lowestoft have the highest bus

mode share in the baseline

• This does not vary considerably when

considering location based on:

• Agent home location

• Trip origin

• Trip destination

Work

Home Education

Shop

Baseline bus trip mode share for different destination activities

• The spatial distribution of mode shares varies depending on destination activity

• Mode shares vary Shopping activities have the highest bus mode share among various activities

Scenarios 1 to 4 comparison: bus trip mode share by passenger home zoneScenario 1 ("Saturation") bus mode share by household location Scenario 2 ("15-min Freq") bus mode share by household location

Scenario 3 ("24hr") bus mode share by household location Scenario 4 ("Market Towns") bus mode share by household location

Scenarios 1 to 4 comparison: bus trip mode share by origin zone

• Scenario 1 has the highest bus mode share distribution for origins within Suffolk

Scenario 1 ("Saturation") bus mode share by trip origin Scenario 2 ("15-min Freq") bus mode share by trip origin

Scenario 3 ("24hr") bus mode share by trip origin Scenario 4 ("Market Towns") bus mode share by trip origin

Scenarios 1 to 4 comparison: bus trip mode share by destination zone

Scenario 1 ("Saturation") bus mode share by trip destination Scenario 2 ("15-min Freq") bus mode share by trip destination

Scenario 3 ("24hr") bus mode share by trip destination Scenario 4 ("Market Towns") bus mode share by trip destination

Mode Shift Analysis – Detailed


Scenarios gross mode shifts (% of total trips) by modes

• The vast majority of agents are car users and do not mode shift

• Subsequent slides consider net mode shift to better interpret modal shift patterns for the

different scenarios

Scenarios net mode shift (% of total trips) by mode

• Here we consider net mode shift from baseline mode to scenario mode

• Mode shift into bus is highlighted

• In most cases, shift to bus comes from car and walk trips, then bike, then rail

Scenarios net mode shift (% of total net shift) by mode

• The relative distributions of where shifts occur vary across the scenarios

• Increased service frequency (2) appears biased towards shift from car

• Operating 24hr services (3) has a greater shift from walk and bike by comparison

• The Market Towns Scenario (4) has relatively little shift of active modes to bus

• The Market Towns Scenario (4) shifts more rail users to bus compared to the other scenarios

Scenarios net mode shift (% of baseline mode trips) by mode

• It is important to note that because car is so dominant as a mode share in the baseline, small shifts in other modes can represent significant change to that mode

• Hence, to better consider the relative impact on each mode, we present the probability of each mode trip shifting

• We can see that in Scenario 1, over 25% of cyclists would shift to bus

• Rail is also more severely impacted when considered this way

Trips: personal attributes breakdown

baseline bus tripsbaseline trips trips switching to bus in scenario

• Trips switching to bus present a demographic profile close to that of baseline bus users –

typically of lower income and female

• New bus users are more likely to come from households with car availability, but this is because

most non-car owners are already using bus in the baseline when feasible

• In the remainder of cases, households without car available are likely shifting to bus from rail and

active modes, so the shift likely represents a significant improvement in terms of cost and time

Note:Percentages reflect each demographic category’s share of new bus trips.

100% = number of bus trips in each scenario that used any other mode in baseline.

Agent Utility Analysis


Within simulation, agents measure the quality of their experiences using a utility score.

This can be thought of as the "happiness" or "satisfaction" of agents, based on how well

they achieved their plans for the day (i.e. all planned activities and required trips).

It must be noted that utility should only be used as a comparative metric, as the

absolute value has no meaningful interpretation.

Pros:

• Accounts for amplitude of impacts, for example, although fewer people from non-car available households may shift, those that do may benefit more than car owners

• Considers changes to the whole day, for example, if trip changes negatively impact achievement of activities or incur costs for other trips

Cons:

• Not useful to directly compare between persons or groups, i.e. "this group is twice as

happy as this group”, but acceptable to compare in terms of relative change, i.e.

“group A outcomes improved by twice as much as group B”

Agent Utility Primer

Global Utility Impacts

ScenarioTotal change in Utility compared

to baseline (all persons)Efficiency*

1: Saturation +0.67% 8.24

2: 15min Frequency +0.23% 22.10

3: 24hr Operation +0.13% 16.78

4: Market Towns +0.06% 6.09

• As expected, the Saturation Scenario (1) has the highest utility impact (+0.67%), i.e. every

person in Suffolk gets, on average, almost 1% "happier"

• Although the Frequency Scenario (2) has a greater impact on utility than the 24hr Scenario (3),

it is comparable in terms of "efficiency”, based on change per additional service required

*Utility Change (ppm) per New Service

Modal Utility Impacts

• Benefits are distributed unevenly across modes and scenarios: existing bus users benefit as expected, but users of other modes also benefit, as they can shift to the improved bus provision

• Existing car users are somewhat indifferent to the new scenarios

• From the active modes, bike users benefit the most, as their trips substitute well for improved bus services

• Considering the efficiency of the scenarios, cyclists in the 24hr Scenario (3) benefit most per additional vehicle,

perhaps since extended services allow them to more easily complete later activities via bus

Change in utility by baseline mode

Scenario bike bus car rail walk

1: Saturation +11.23% +3.91% +0.15% +3.11% +1.27%

2: 15min Frequency +4.48% +1.9% +0.00% +1.25% +0.47%

3: 24hr Operation +4.14% +0.65% -0.03% +0.87% +0.33%

4: Market Towns +2.50% +0.20% -0.02% +0.44% +0.20%

Efficiency (ppm change in utility per additional service)

Scenario bike bus car rail walk

1: Saturation +138.11 +48.09 +1.84 +38.25 +15.62

2: 15min Frequency +430.44 +182.55 +0.00 +120.10 +45.16

3: 24hr Operation +534.33 +83.89 -3.87 +112.29 +42.59

4: Market Towns +253.81 +20.30 -2.03 +44.67 +20.30

Utility Impacts by household and person attributes

• People without cars benefit the most, as well as those with low incomes

• Females do better in the Saturation (1) and Frequency (2) Scenarios

• Males benefit most from the 24hr Scenario (3)

• People living in Coastal Suffolk do best from Scenarios 1 and 2, Babergh from Scenario 3 and Ipswichians from

Scenario 4

Household Area Babergh Forest Heath Ipswich Mid Suffolk St Edmundsbury Suffolk Coastal Waveney

1: Saturation 0.66% 0.57% 0.76% 0.65% 0.58% 0.91% 0.74%

2: 15min Frequency 0.20% 0.23% 0.30% 0.03% 0.18% 0.41% 0.29%

3: 24hr Operation 0.20% 0.15% 0.13% 0.05% 0.14% 0.16% 0.12%

4: Market Towns 0.06% 0.07% 0.11% -0.01% 0.02% 0.07% 0.14%

Car Availability never yes

1: Saturation 4.74% 0.30%

2: 15min Frequency 1.57% 0.11%

3: 24hr Operation 1.01% 0.04%

4: Market Towns 0.29% 0.05%

HH Income high medium low

1: Saturation 0.41% 0.89% 0.99%

2: 15min Frequency 0.11% 0.31% 0.38%

3: 24hr Operation 0.08% 0.17% 0.19%

4: Market Towns 0.03% 0.06% 0.14%

Gender female male

1: Saturation 0.73% 0.69%

2: 15min Frequency 0.28% 0.20%

3: 24hr Operation 0.12% 0.15%

4: Market Towns 0.07% 0.07%

Route Analysis


• We can extract detailed actions of agents and vehicles from the simulation, and

compare them across scenarios and to the baseline

• Here we focus on changes to the times of use as an example

Route Analysis Primer

Hourly boardings distribution comparison

• The Saturation Scenario (1) dominates hourly boardings across Suffolk, showing increased use early in

the day and later

• 24hr operation (3) has more impact on boarding in the evening period rather than morning period:the boardings increase sharply between 19 to 21

• The boarding counts during the middle of the day for 24hr operation (3) and Market Towns (4) are very

close to baseline

66 Ipswich Hourly boardings distribution comparison

• Line, Route, Stop and even vehicle level changes can be extracted from simulation

• Here, we show boardings per hour for route number 66

• Scenario 2 (15 mins frequency increase) has the biggest impact, where boarding counts

are nearly double at 8 AM compared to baseline

Route Analysis – Rankings


• We analyse the scenarios to identify where changes are most effective:

o Scenario 2: “if I were to increase operating frequency, which services should I prioritise?

o Scenario 3: “if I were to extend operating hours, which services should I prioritise?

o Scenario 4: “if I were to add additional town connectivity, which routes should I prioritise?

• In the case of scenarios 2 and 3, where we are making changes to existing services (either

making them more frequent or extending their operating hours), we consider (as per previous

sections) the efficiency of the change, based on the number of new services added.

Route Analysis Ranking Primer

• Top lines in Scenario 2 provide connections to/from Ipswich (64 and 66 Ipswich routes), Lowestoft(106, 105 routes) and Felixstowe (75, 77 Felixstowe Flyers)

Scenario 2, Increase in boardings per additional vehicle

Rank, Boardings per additional vehicle

Top 10%

Top 10% - 20%

Bottom 80%

Top-15 Line Increases

Line

Increase

in Vehicles

Boardings per

additional vehicle

% Increase

Boardings

64 Ipswich reds 79 44.56 113%

106 15 34.67 400%

77 Felixstowe Flyers 65 30.77 179%

66 Ipswich reds 93 30.54 65%

105 24 29.58 43%

93 83 29.04 321%

M33 35 27.71 404%

88 Ipswich reds 71 27.46 81%


102 48 23.75 87%

101 94 22.66 35%

385 20 22.50 87%

15 110 21.64 75%

146 43 20.70 52%

92 67 20.45 199%

Bury St

Edmunds

Ipswich

Lowestoft

Haverhill

Felixstowe

Newmarket

• In Scenario 3, more top-ranking lines are found north of Ipswich, east of Bury St Edmunds and in the North East

521

Scenario 3, Increase in boardings per additional vehicle

Rank, Boardings per additional vehicle

Top 10%

Top 10% - 20%

Bottom 80%

Top 15 Line Increases

Line

Increase

in Vehicles

Boardings per

additional vehicle

% Increase

Boardings

521 20 37.5 114%

753 27 33.7 40%

102 46 30.0 105%

384 20 29.5 79%

64 Ipswich reds 25 22.8 18%

92 28 22.1 90%

116 38 21.8 268%

M33 11 20.9 96%


99A Coastal Clipper 30 19.7 54%

93 23 19.1 59%

146 44 17.5 45%

524 20 17.5 80%

113 20 16.0 160%

118 28 15.7 76%

Bury St

Edmunds

Ipswich

Lowestoft

Haverhill

Felixstowe

Newmarket

• Most new Market Town routes ranked in the middle of all routes, likely duplicating some existing bus

and rail services.

• The most popular new routes are between Bury St Edmunds and nearby towns

Scenario 4, Market Towns

Rank, Boardings

Top 1/3rd

Top 2/3rds

Bottom 1/3rd

Top 1/3rd of Routes

Location1 Location2 BoardingsRank in all new

routes

Bury St Edmunds Haverhill 630 1

Ipswich Hadleigh 580 2

Bury St Edmunds Sudbury 490 3

Bury St Edmunds Elmswell 490 4

Clare Haverhill 430 5

Bury St Edmunds Ixworth 420 6

Reydon Halesworth 410 7

Red Mildenhall 330 8

Lowestoft Beccles 330 9

Bury St Edmunds Newmarket 290 10

Lowestoft Bungay 290 11

521Bury St

Edmunds

Ipswich

Lowestoft

Haverhill

Felixstowe

Newmarket

current bus routes

Documents