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May 18, 2020 $500,000,000* State of Connecticut Taxable General Obligation Bonds (2020 Series A) Investor Presentation * Preliminary, subject to change.

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Page 1: CT GO Taxable 2020A Investor Presentation 2020 05 18 vF ...buyctbonds.com/.../05/CT-GO-Taxable-2020A_Investor-Presentation_… · This investor presentation that you are about to

May 18, 2020

$500,000,000*State of ConnecticutTaxable General Obligation Bonds (2020 Series A)

Investor Presentation

* Preliminary, subject to change.

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Disclaimer

This investor presentation that you are about to view is provided as of May 18, 2020 for a proposed offering of State of Connecticut $500,000,000*Taxable General Obligation Bonds (2020 Series A) (the “Bonds”). This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only and for yoursole and exclusive use in connection with the proposed transaction. The information contained herein is subject to completion and amendment.Any offer or solicitation with respect to the Bonds will be made by means of a final official statement. If you are viewing this investor presentationafter the date stated above, events may have occurred that have a material adverse effect on the financial information presented.

This investor presentation does not constitute a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financialinstrument, including the Bonds, or to adopt any investment strategy. You will be responsible for consulting your own advisors and making yourown independent investigation and appraisal of the risks, benefits, appropriateness and suitability of the proposed transaction and any othertransactions contemplated by this presentation and neither the issuer nor the underwriter is making any recommendation (personal or otherwise)or giving any investment advice and will have no liability with respect thereto.

Neither the issuer nor the underwriter makes a representation or warranty as to the (i) accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information inthis investor presentation or (ii) legal, tax, credit or accounting treatment of any purchase of Bonds by you or any other effects such purchase mayhave on you and your affiliates or any other parties to such transactions and their respective affiliates. The information contained herein has beencompiled from sources believed to be reliable, however neither the issuer nor the underwriter shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence orotherwise) to any person for any loss arising from this investor presentation or any information supplied in connection therewith.

This investor presentation contains “forward-looking” statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. If the risks or uncertainties evermaterialize or the assumptions prove incorrect, the results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-lookingstatements. Accordingly, we caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements. All statements other than the statements of historical factcould be deemed forward-looking. All opinions, estimates, projections, forecasts and valuations are preliminary, indicative and are subject tochange without notice.

Transactions involving the Bonds may not be suitable for all investors. You should consult with your own advisors as to the suitability of the Bondsfor your particular circumstances. No assurance can be given that any transaction mentioned herein could in fact be executed. Past performance isnot indicative of future returns, which will vary. Prospective investors should contact their salesperson at, and execute the transactions through anentity of the underwriter qualified in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise.

THE PRINTING, DUPLICATING, DOWNLOADING, SCREEN CAPTURING, ELECTRONIC STORING, RECORDING, PUBLISHING ORDISTRIBUTING OF THIS INVESTOR PRESENTATION IN ANY MANNER IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED.

By viewing this investor presentation you acknowledge that you understand and agree to the provisions of this page.

*Preliminary, subject to change.

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Agenda

1. Executive Summary

2. COVID-19 Impact

3. State of Connecticut Overview

4. Financial Performance

5. Pension System Update

6. General Obligation Debt Overview

7. Plan of Finance

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1

Executive SummaryTransaction Overview

$500,000,000* State of Connecticut

Issue: Taxable General Obligation Bonds (2020 Series A)

Structure*:Fixed rate serial bonds

$50 million annual amortization (July 1, 2021 – July 1, 2030)

Use of Proceeds: Bond proceeds will be used for various projects and purposes

Tax Status: Federally taxable, State of Connecticut tax-exempt

Call Feature*: Make-whole redemption price prior to maturity

Security: Full faith and credit of the State of Connecticut and all of its taxing power

Confirmed Ratings: Moody’s: A1 (Stable); S&P: A (Stable); Fitch: A+ (Stable); Kroll: AA- (Stable)

Key Dates*:

*Preliminary, subject to change.

POS Available Pricing Closing

Monday, May 18, 2020 Thursday, May 28, 2020 Thursday, June 11, 2020

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2

Executive SummaryIntroduction

Connecticut has Liquidity Available to Meet Current Obligations and is Committed to a Sustainable Fiscal Position

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-17.2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-32.3Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-33.

State Responses to COVID-19

Pandemic1

▪ On March 10, Governor Lamont declared a state of emergency as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak

▪ On March 28, 2020, President Trump approved Governor Lamont’s request for a disaster declaration forthe State

▪ Please find additional information on the website: www.ct.gov/coronavirus

MitigatingFactors

▪ Current Budget Reserve Fund (“BRF”) of $2.5 billion is expected to be drawn upon, ending FY 2020 at $1.9billion2

▪ Remaining BRF balance represents 9.4% of net General Fund appropriation for FY 2021

▪ No material impact from tax deferments in FY 2020; already within the existing statutory revenue accrual period

▪ The week-ending balances of available cash for FY 2019 averaged $4.134 billion1

▪ The State received $1.382 billion3 from the federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Stabilization Act (the “CARES Act”) to cover costs associated with the response to the COVID-19 in April 2020

▪ Additional federal funding or direct assistance may be available for COVID-19 related emergency protective measures

Strong Credit Fundamentals

and Continuing Pension Reform

▪ In 2018, the State’s per capita personal income was the highest in the nation

▪ Highly developed and urbanized state with a deep and diverse economy

▪ Pension reform initiatives taken by the State in 2019 in order to ensure adequate liquidity to meet all benefit obligations

▪ Asset smoothing through the actuarial valuations will mitigate the impact of returns

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◼ Current projections show the State slipping into recession starting in the fourth quarter of FY 2020 due tosignificant pullback in consumption and significant rise in unemployment

◼ Actions are being taken to support the Connecticut economy and businesses therein through tax filingdeferments consistent with federal action

◼ Unemployment rate growing from 5.1%1 in FY 2020 to 9.5% in FY 2021, according to IHS Markit’s(“IHS”) forecast

◼ Real Gross State Product is expected to contract by 2.2% in FY 2021, the year it is expected to take the fullbrunt of the economic impact of the pandemic

◼ The Office of Policy and Management (“OPM”) is projecting a deficit in the General Fund of $934.0 millionfor FY 2020 as of April 30, 2020

◼ A significant component of the increase in the FY 2020 deficit is the expected delay of $325.6 million infederal reimbursement related to hospital supplemental payments which is now expected to be receivedin FY 2021. The delay is unrelated to the COVID-19 pandemic

◼ Given the public health emergency associated with COVID-19, the Governor is not offering expenditurereductions or revenue policy changes to address the FY 2020 deficit

◼ The FY 2020 shortfall will be covered by a transfer from the BRF

◼ BRF is expected to end FY 2020 at $1.9 billion, or 9.4% of net General Fund appropriations for FY 2021

Source: Preliminary Official Statement, pages II-28, II-32 & II-33.1As of March 2020

3

Pandemic Response Is Continually Evolving

COVID-19 Impact on State Revenues

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◼ OPM and Office of Fiscal Analysis (“OFA”) issued their consensus revenue estimates as of April 30, 2020,showing significant decreases in General Fund revenues in each FY 2020 to FY 2024 (between $942.0 millionto $2.3 billion) as compared to January 15, 2020 estimates as shown below:

◼ The next monthly report of OPM is expected on May 20, 2020; the next monthly report of the Comptroller isexpected on June 1, 2020

◼ Further actions will likely be required in order to reduce the economic hardship the pandemic has caused

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Revenue Estimate January 15, 2020 $19,427.2 $20,317.3 $19,764.1 $20,091.7 $20,618.0

Revenue Estimate April 30, 2020 $18,485.1 $18,088.4 $17,434.7 $18,094.3 $18,590.6

Amount Changed $(942.1) $(2,228.9) $(2,329.4) $(1,997.4) $(2,027.4)

General Fund Consensus Revenue Estimate ($ in millions)1

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-28 & II-32. 4

Pandemic Response Is Continually Evolving (Cont.)

COVID-19 Impact on State Revenues(Cont.)

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◼ Treasurer continues to focus on the following key areas:

◼ Improving the State’s overall fiscal stability and credit ratings

◼ Increasing returns on pension fund investments while minimizing risk

◼ Supporting investments in the State’s growth industries with workforce training

◼ Promoting responsible corporate governance and financial empowerment

◼ The State already enjoys strong credit fundamentals

◼ Highly developed and urbanized state with a deep and diverse economy; home to 16 Fortune 500 companies1

◼ 38.7% of the population over the age of 25 holds a bachelor’s degree or higher, 5th nationwide1

◼ In 2018, the State’s per capita income was 140.7% of the national average making it the wealthiest state in the U.S.2

◼ The adopted budget honors all budgetary caps3

◼ Spending Cap: limits the growth in expenditures to the greater of the percentage increase in personal income over a five-yearperiod or the percentage increase in inflation over the previous calendar year

◼ Volatility Cap: revenue exceeding a threshold from the Estimates and Finals portion of the Personal Income Tax and Pass-Through Entity Tax is transferred to the BRF at the end of the fiscal year

◼ Revenue Cap: prohibits general fund appropriations that exceed prescribed percentages of the revenue forecast: 99.5% in FY2020; declining in 0.25% increments until 98.0% in FY 2026 and thereafter

◼ Strong credit standing

◼ The State continues to have stable credit outlooks

5

Strong Governance

Treasurer’s Priorities and State’s Strong Credit Fundamentals

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-B-2.2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-B-5.3Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-29.

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6

State of Connecticut OverviewStrong Regional Economy

Non-Agricultural Employment By Sector Historical Growth In Gross State Product (CY)2

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-B-2 & II-B-13.2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-B-8; based on gross state product by industry in the State of Connecticut.

◼ Home to 16 Fortune 500 companies

◼ Leader in defense industry, which employs approximately 25% of Connecticut’s manufacturing employees

◼ Ranked #6 in defense dollars awarded1

◼ Leading producer of aircraft engines and parts, submarines, and helicopters

◼ United Technologies-Raytheon merger expected to result in only 100 jobs moving to new headquartersin Massachusetts

◼ Nearly all employees expected to remain in Connecticut1

Highly Developed and Urbanized State Situated Between Financial Centers of Boston & NY

46.1%

17.6%

14.0%

9.5%

7.5%

3.5%1.9% Services

Trade

Government

Manufacturing

Finance

Construction

Information$220

$230

$240

$250

$260

$270

$280

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

($ i

n b

illi

on

s)

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High Wealth Levels and Lower Unemployment Rate Between 2009 and 2018

◼ Per capita income historically among the highest in the nation – 140.7% of national average in20181

State of Connecticut OverviewIncome and Employment Trends

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-B-5 (Data unavailable for 2019).2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-B-9, II-B-17, & II-B33 (CT Non-Agricultural Employment data unavailable for 2019).

High Per Capita Income (CY)1 Employment Trends (CY)2

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Per Capita Income As % of NE As % of US

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1,560

1,580

1,600

1,620

1,640

1,660

1,680

1,700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CT Non-Agricultural Employment CT Unemployment Rate

7

◼ Charts do not reflect any economic impact from COVID-19

◼ According to an IHS forecast, unemployment rate is growing from 5.1% in FY 2020 to 9.5% inFY 2021

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◼ Highly-educated workforce1

◼ Ranks 5th nationally, in 2017, with 38.7% of the population aged 25+ holding a bachelor’sdegree or higher

◼ Home to over 45 colleges and universities1

State of Connecticut OverviewLeader in Education and Transportation

Highly-educated Workforce With Numerous Note-worthy Institutions of Higher Education and an Extensive Transportation Network

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-B-2. 2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-31.

8

◼ Modern transportation network provides easy access to local, regional, and international marketsutilizing interstate highway network, airports, deep draft harbors, bus, and rail systems2

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Financial PerformanceFinancial Procedures

The State has a Number of Constitutional Provisions, Statutes, Regulations, and Administrative Policies and Procedures in Place to Ensure Sound Financial Management

9

Spending cap and controls

Debt limit

Line item veto

Rescission authority and deficit mitigation

Balanced budget requirement

Biennial budget

Budget Reserve Fund

Budget status report

Volatility cap

Revenue cap

Monthly revenue and expense updates from OPM and Comptroller

Monitor fiscal progress

Multiple-year planning tools

Periodic consensus revenue forecasting

Agency budget revisions

Sound Financial Management

Funding of Budget Reserve Fund

Cap on General Fund and Special Transportation Fund Aggregate Appropriations

Constitutional spending cap

Annual bond authorization limitation

Statutory debt limit, including annual issuance limitation

Source: Preliminary Official Statement, pages II-10 – II-15.

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◼ Pension Reform

◼ Putting the Teachers’ Retirement Fund (“TRF”) on a sustainable path and stabilizing the annual requiredcontribution

➢ In 2019, reduced the assumed rate of return to 6.9% and adjusted annual required contribution over a 30-year period and phase into level dollar funding

◼ Streamlining the State employees’ retirement benefits

➢ Smoothed annual required contributions

➢ Attained savings from state employee and retiree health programs and revised the amortization period fora portion of SERS

◼ Previously established OPEB trust for State employees which currently has a balance of $1 billion

◼ Debt Discipline

◼ The General Statutes govern the authorization, issuance of State debt, including the purpose, amount, maturityand terms of repayment, the security for the bonds and other related matters

◼ By law, the Governor shall not approve allotment requisitions that would result in the issuance of generalobligation bonds that exceed $1.9 billion in a fiscal year

◼ As chair of the State Bond Commission (“SBC”)1, the Governor sets the agenda for each SBC meeting, controlsgeneral obligation bond financing, and imposes debt discipline without additional legislative action

10

Structural Reforms

Structural Changes to Strengthen the State’s Financial Profile

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-42.

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General Fund FY 2019Adopted

FY 2020Projected

FY 2020

Budgeted Revenues $19,649.9 $19,543.7 $18,485.1

Revenue Cap 100.00% 99.50% N/A

Available Revenue 19,649.9 19,446.0 18,485.1

Net Appropriations/ Expenditures $19,278.9 $ 19,423.2 $19,419.1

Surplus/(Deficit) Balance 6/30 $370.6 $22.8 $(934.0)

Volatility Cap Transfer to BRF $949.7 $318.3 $318.3

Revenue Cap Transfer to BRF $- $- $-

Financial Performance Budget Highlights

11

Budget Plan1,3 ($ in millions)

◼ In the April 20, 2020 report, OPM projected a $934.0 million General Fund deficit at the end ofFY 20201

◼ $318.3 million Volatility Cap revenues expected to be transferred to the Budget Reserve Fund1

◼ Revenues reflect new revenue cap and must be 99.5% commencing in FY 2020, decliningover six years to 98.0%2

◼ The projected volatility deposit may be impacted if taxpayers reduce their estimatedpayments

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-32.2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-11.3Source: Preliminary Official Statement, Appendix II-E-1 & II-E-2.

◼ Current revenue estimate for FY 2021 shows $2.2 billion decrease from January 2020 estimates

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Budget Reserve Fund – Account Balance (FYE 6/30)1

Adopted FY 2020 General Fund Appropriations2

Financial PerformanceBudget Highlights (cont.)

12

Adopted FY 2020 General Fund Revenues3

Budget Surpluses Have Historically Added to the BRF; the Estimated BRF Balance is Expected to be $1.9 billion1 After All Transfers at the Beginning of FY 2021

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-32.2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, pages II-29 & II-37.3Source: Preliminary Official Statement, Appendix II-20 & II-24. The revenue pie chart reflects the adopted revenues amount of $19,446.0 million. The appropriations pie chart reflects total listed expenditures of $19,423.2 million and does not reflect adjustments for unallocated lapses.

27.7%

26.4%

23.2%

7.2%

6.3%

3.4%3.0% 2.7%

Non-Functional

Education, Libraries & Museums

Human Services

Corrections

Health & Hospital

General Government

Judicial

Other Expenditures

45.0%

20.7%

15.0%

7.4%

6.9%5.1%

Personal Income Tax

Sales & Use Tax

Other Taxes

Unrestricted Federal Grants

Other Non-Tax Revenues

Corporate Business Tax

Budget Reserve Fund (FYE 6/30)2

$406.0$235.6 $212.9

$1,201.4

$2,505.5

$1,889.81

-$700

-$100

$500

$1,100

$1,700

$2,300

$2,900

($ i

n m

illi

on

s)

Deposit/(Withdrawals) Account Balance

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Pension System UpdateRetirement System Funding Status

13

SERF and TRF Statistics ($ in billions)

SERF2 TRF3

Actuarial Accrued Liability $36.1 $34.7

Actuarial Value of Assets $13.8 $18.0

UAAL $22.3 $16.8

Funded Ratio 38.2% 51.7%

Market Value of Assets $13.3 $18.0

Investment Rate Assumption 6.9% 6.9%

Remaining Years to Full Amortization 26.9 29.0

1Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-89.2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-70; as of 6/30/2019.3Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-96; as of 6/30/2019.4Based on current baseline.

SERF and TRF Each Generated 5-year Investment Returns of 6.0% as of FY 20191

TRF Performance as of June 30, 20191

SERF Performance as of June 30, 20191

0%

3%

6%

9%

5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year

Annualized Net Return on Investment Assets

0%

3%

6%

9%

5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20 Year 25 Year

Annualized Net Return on Investment Assets

◼ Investment return assumption now6.9% for both plans

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Historical Contributions – SERF (FYE 6/30)1

Historical Contributions – TRF (FYE 6/30)2

Demonstrated Commitment to Sustainable Funding in Recent Years; Materially Meeting Required ADEC Contributions Consistently

141Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-72.2Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-83.

Pension System UpdateFunding Commitment Contributions

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

($ i

n m

illi

on

s)

State Contribution ($)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% of ADEC Funded

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

($ i

n m

illi

on

s)

State Contribution ($)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% of ADEC Funded

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General Obligation Debt OverviewDebt Composition

◼ 94.1% of outstanding bonds are fixed rate

◼ Typically structured as 20-year level principal amortizationproviding rapid amortization

◼ Taxable bonds normally issued over 10-year term

◼ Minimal swap exposure – only $20 million notional outstanding terminating June 1, 2020

15Source: Preliminary Official Statement, page II-52. 1Includes Variable Rate and Pension Obligation Bonds.2Does not include Taxable 2020 Series A Bonds totaling $500 million.

Amortization of Outstanding Principal as of 5/1/2020 (FYE 6/30)2

Conservative GO Debt Structure1

94.1%

5.9%

Fixed Variable

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20Approximately 75% of outstanding principal

is scheduled to retire within 10 years

($ i

n b

illi

on

s)

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General Obligation Debt OverviewDebt Burden and Affordability

16

Connecticut Compares Favorably With Its Peers When State and Local Debt are Combined as a % of Personal Income

◼ The State’s GO debt burden is partially due to Connecticut’s practice of financing many localprojects, including primary school funding, at the State level in the absence of county-levelgovernment

State and Local Debt as % of State Personal Income

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2017 data (state and local debt); U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 2018 data (personal income data); Preliminary Official Statement, page II-50.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

State Local

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Plan of FinanceAmortization Schedule &Transaction Timetable*

17

Week of / Date Activity

Monday, May 18th • POS posted

Thursday, May 28th • Pricing

Week of June 8th • Closing

Market Holiday PricingPost POS Closing

*Preliminary, subject to change.

June 2020Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

1 2 3 4 5 67 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 2021 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30

May 2020Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 910 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 2324 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

Principal Amortization Schedule*

7/1 Maturity2020 Series A

(‘000s)

2021 $50,000

2022 $50,000

2023 $50,000

2024 $50,000

2025 $50,000

2026 $50,000

2027 $50,000

2028 $50,000

2029 $50,000

2030 $50,000

Total $500,000

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Plan of FinanceContact Information

18

Preliminary Official Statement and Other Investor Information Can Be Found At:

www.buyCTbonds.com

Contact information:

Sarah K. Sanders

Assistant Treasurer for Debt Management

The Office of Treasurer Shawn T. Wooden

[email protected]

Co-Financial Advisors Senior Manager

Acacia Financial Group TKG & Associates Siebert Williams Shank

Joshua C. NyikitaManaging Director

Charlotte Knight-MarshallPrincipal

Jonathan KirnManaging Director

(856) 234-2266 (866) 871-0042 (202) 872-8052

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]