Farming Success

in an Uncertain Climate David W. Wolfe

Cornell University

dww5@cornell.edu

www.climatechange.cornell.edu

Rapid Shift in “Plant Hardiness” Zones

Source: www.arborday.org

(maps based on minimum winter temperatures;

prior 15 years of weather station record)

Can farmers adapt to an accelerating

pace of change?

NE U.S. winters have warmed 4.4 F since 1970 (more than average annual temperature warming)

Source: C. Wake, University of New Hampshire

1.8 - 3.6

3.6 - 5.4

5.4 - 7.2

7.2 - 9.0

(oF)

Apples are blooming

8 days earlier than

they were in the

1960s

Grapes are blooming 6

days earlier

Lilacs are blooming 4

days earlier

[Source: Wolfe DW et al. 2005. Internat J Biometeor 49:303-309.]

National Phenology Network: http://www.usanpn.org

The living world is responding to climate change:

For example, in the Northeastern US….

but will also bring with it increased weed, disease, and insect pressure,

damaging summer heat stress, and new challenges for water management

For Farmers of the NE US …

Climate change might allow exploration of new species and varieties,

55 57 59 61 63 65 67 // 75°F cool mild warm hot

Current NY

growing season °F

Adapted from

G.V.Jones; 2007

2050 Projected (A1)

2080 Projected (A1)

Climate Change and European Wine Grape Variety Options

(based on mean Apr-Oct temperature °F )

2012: Apple blossoms under snow and 30-50% of NYS crop lost

Expect the unexpected: More frost and freeze damage in a warmer winter world?

Warmer winters in NE = more pest pressure

Kudzu

Corn earworm

Flea beetle

Many insects benefit: better overwinter

survival; more generations per season;

northward expansion of range Invasive weeds benefit

Days Below -4 F

(dark orange= potential spread of Kudzu range)

2010-39 2040-69 2070-99

“Business

as usual”

Lower

emissions

Wolfe et al. 2008. Mitgation

Adaptation Strategies Global Change

13:555-575.

Ambient CO2 Future CO2

And high CO2 reduces herbicide efficacy

e.g. Ziska et al. Weed Science 2004 (Ziska et al. 2004 Weed Sci 52:584-588; Ziska et al. 1999. Weed Sci 47:608-615.)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Day

s G

reat

er

or

Equ

al t

o 9

0 F

Decade

Heat Stress Number of days ≥ 90°F,

by decade (since 1870s)

Source: A. DeGaetano, NERCC, Cornell University

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Decade

Heavy Rains Number of days ≥ 2 in. rain,

by decade (since 1870s)

Historical Increase in Extreme Events

in New York (since 1870s)

Yet….More Summer Droughts for NE Despite Possible Small Increases in Annual Rainfall

Projections for 2070-2099,

From Hayhoe et al. 2007. Climate

Dynamics 28:381-407

-Warmer, longer summers

will increase water use by

vegetation (potential

evapotranspiration)

-Summer rainfall not

projected to increase

Crop yield and quality Heat stress and livestock

The Risk of Heat Stress, Drought and Heavy Rains:

All Projected to Increase in NY

Projected Milk Production Decline in NE Wolfe et al. 2008. MITI 13:555-575.

SEE: Greene, C.H. December, 2012. The winters

of our discontent. Scientific American.

This could promote both cold

and warm extremes lasting

for weeks at a time.

Ideas like this are being studied

and debated, but are not yet proven

or understood sufficiently to make

clear future predictions.

Expect the unexpected: Melting arctic sea ice affecting jet stream patterns

and weather variability??

Farmer Attitudes About Climate Change

All farmers are concerned about extreme weather events

and uncertainty about the weather

Recent polls indicate the majority of farmers accept

that the climate is changing

All farmers are concerned about uncertain energy costs,

and future energy and climate change policies

Recent Midwest Survey Results: -The majority (66%) of farmers think climate change is occurring;

-Only 4 percent are convinced it is not

Adaptation

•New varieties, new crops, change planting dates

•Diversify cropping systems at farm and regional

scales

•Develop new strategies for new pests,

diseases and weeds

•Improve soil resilience to drought and flooding;

expand into new sites less prone to water stress;

new irrigation and drainage systems

•Fruit crop frost protection (site selection,

misting, air circulation)

•Improve cooling capacity of livestock facilities

Farm-level adjustments that build resilience

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty Farmers will require new climate-based

decision tools for strategic adaptation.

Is this “normal” bad weather

or climate change??

Do I invest in a new

drainage system?...

Or irrigation system?

Or both?

And when?

Financial Barriers: Equity Issues: Will small family farms have the capital and

strategic information to adapt?

Too much information; misinformation

Informational barriers;

Cognitive barriers

Agriculture Adaptation

Beyond the farm:

A role for universities, government agencies, NGOs

•New decision tools to explore costs, risks, benefits, and

strategic timing of adaptation

•Develop new crop and livestock options (e.g. breeding)

•Improved delivery of real-time local weather data

•Enhanced pest monitoring and regional data sharing

•Disaster risk management and better crop insurance

programs

•Financial assistance for adaptation investments

•Land use and climate change policies that integrate

economic, environmental and equity issues

Renewable Energy

on the Farm

Cow

Power

Anaerobic Digester

Re-coupling animal and crop

production systems

to re-cycle nitrogen, carbon, energy

switchgrass Corn pellets

abandoned field:

goldenrod and weeds

Low Intensity/High Diversity (LIHD)

willow

Biomass Fuel Crops:

recycling carbon

27

Tillage, Soil Health, and

Soil Carbon Sequestration

Building soil organic matter (reducing tillage, using cover crops, manure and composts):

stores carbon in the soil that otherwise would be in the air as CO2

increases resilience to drought and flooding by improving soil water holding

capacity and drainage

Nitrogen (N) Management and Greenhouse Gases

-Synthetic N fertilizers are energy-intensive to

produce

- All N fertilizers (including manure and other

organic sources) give off nitrous oxide

(N2O), a potent greenhouse gas, as they

degrade in soils

- N management is often inefficient

Legume N instead of fertilizer N

A broader view of ‘renewable energy’…

15

New approaches to N management: Linking models with weather forecasts

Cornell’s “Adapt-N” web-based nitrogen

management system

(http://adapt-n.eas.cornell.edu)

New Tools for C, N, and GHG

Accounting and Management (USDA project)

Goal:

To provide small- to large-scale farmers with low-cost soil C

assessment and GHG management tools, and provide policymakers

with tools for evaluation of mitigation incentive options across a

range of future climate scenarios.

COMET-Farm web tool Strategic soil C assessment 30

• Taking advantage of changing market opportunities

• Strategic decisions regarding capital investments, such as:

– New irrigation and drainage systems

– Livestock facilities with adequate cooling capacity

– Planting appropriate perennial fruit crop varieties

• Anticipating new weed, disease, insect pests

• Avoiding unintended consequences, such as:

– Increased chemical loads to waterways

– Undesirable land use change and degradation

• Promoting policies that support farmer needs for adaptation and

mitigation

• Increasing profits by better energy and GHG management, and

taking advantage of energy policy incentive programs

• Protecting national interests: ag economy, food prices, food

security

Farming Success in a Changing Climate: Being Prepared Makes Good Business Sense