crystal ball monday 01st april, 2019 monthly ......2019/04/02 · icici bank. (cmp 401. targets...

Transform your Investments.

Elevate your life.

Monday01st April, 2019

CRYSTAL BALLM O N T H LY I N V E S T M E N T R E S E A R C H

www.lotusfunds.com

Winning Ideas! Proven Expertise!! www.lotusfunds.com

INSTRUMENT

SENSEX

NIFTY

USD $ / INR

GOLD

SILVER

CRUDE OIL

Price Forecast

31st March 2019. 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 1 year

38673 39301 37001 40000 40501

11624 11801 11200 12001 12251

69.11 68.5 70 71 68

1297 1315 1368 1321 1501

15.1 15.75 16.05 16.21 19

60 62.5 65 62.5 65




Dear Valued Reader,

We are ready with our April-May-June 2019 forecast.

Market recap: Now, before we start a brand new-innings of trading this April 2019, let’s review how the major indices listed at Dalal Street have fared in March 2019 and from Jan-March 2019:

Sensex 38673

Nifty 11624

BSE Auto Index 18825

BSE Bank Index 34142

BSE Capital Goods Index 18472

BSE Consumer Durables 23856

BSE FMCG 11742

BSE Healthcare 14408

BSE Metal 11355

BSE Mid-Cap 15480

BSE Small-Cap 15027

+7.82% +7.22%

+7.70% +7.01%

+0.10%

+13.70% +12.40%

+8.10%

+11.43% +15.28%

+3.42%

+4.70% +3.48%

+5.47%

+8.11% +0.27%

+9.77% +2.18%

-9.64%

-1.85%

-0.74%

-4.09%

2019 % Change

Instruments LTPMarch 2019% Change



Well, on backdrop of a stellar March 2019 at Dalal Street, perma-bulls find themselves back in a similar position – fresh records highs.

The benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty have posted record gains in March 2019, notching around 7.7%. Interestingly, Dalal Street was one of the world’s best-performing stock indexes for Financial Year 2017 too, with double-digit gains (15%+). The key positive takeaway was that Bank Nifty Index is now at a fresh life time high.

The key positive catalysts:

1. US Fed's decision to put rate hike on hold. 2. RBI turning dovish.3. FIIs camp returning on buy side.

BSE Power 2034

BSE Reality 2077

BSE Oil/gas 15270

BSE IT 15280

+11.25% +1.76%

+15.65% +15.53%

+10.63% +11.06%

+0.17% +8.45%

2019 % Change

Instruments LTPMarch 2019% Change



4. Hopes of US-China trade agreement.5. The border tensions almost completely out of picture. 6. The street is quite optimistic that Narendra Modi-led government will come back to power

after the general elections 2019.7. The technical landscapes got better & better after the benchmark Nifty signaled a bullish

golden cross. 8. Extremely positive global cues.

Well, amidst these favorable backdrop, the near term outlook for Dalal Street looks bullish indeed. The idea that future returns at our stock markets should continue to look exciting. We firmly believe; the markets dream run to continue in 2019, but having said that, there will be definitely frequent shocks and volatility.

Net-net, we would still prefer to be in the bulls’ camp unless there is an unanticipated “black swan” event. One such negative catalyst is the global growth worries. At the moment, there are plenty of signs which are flashing red on recession. Digging deeper, scaring investors the most is the yield on 3-month U.S Treasuries that has risen above the rate on 10-year Treasuries for the first time since 2007.

A narrowing spread is typically seen as sign that long-term economic confidence is dwindling.

Data suggests that the global economy is weakening as the international trade volumes have declined sharply because of the US-China trade war, and most importantly, there are financial stability

concerns in China.

Sounds scary...



Meanwhile, the market breadth still continues to be weak. There is relatively narrow breadth at Dalal Street in terms of leadership. As they say, the generals can lead the charge, but if none of soldiers follow, they will soon witness a hasty retreat.Crude-oil prices have jumped to the highest levels this year.

As per provisional data, Domestic institutional investors have been net sellers in February at Rs 565 crore, as well as in March at Rs 13,930 crore.

BREXIT mess is seen thickening.

Apparently, as the benchmarks have moved up — so have the risk.

Obviously, the street will be anxious and spy with one big eye if anything goes wrong from here on. So, investors buying aggressively from here-on should stick with higher-quality companies.

The bias remains firmly positive, or at the most, we suspect, Sensex and Nifty likely consolidate in near term as Dalal Street finds few fresh catalysts to lift indices further in to record territory.

Honestly speaking; the battle will be between overbought technical conditions, fundamentals and sentiments.

Lastly, expect volatility to hit the roof amidst uncertainty ahead of general elections in April-May 2019. Digging deeper, predicting elections in India is a mug’s game and the element of volatility in



next two months will depend on the three big questions:

1. Will Narendra Modi return to power with majority?2. Will Priyanka/Rahul Gandhi beat expectations and win? 3. Will a Third Front government emerge, as in 1996-98?

Long story short: Dalal Street will simply zoom on the upside if BJP comes back to power, and probably live with a Congress victory, but please note imminent crash on cards if the Third Front assumes power.

Well, tricky days lie ahead.

The other key questions vexing investors’ mind are:

1. Will Dalal Street slip down below the psychological 11,000 mark or the street will rake in fresh record highs, lifting Nifty above the 11,700 milestone and probably beyond 12,000 mark.

2. How long it will take for the growth to rebound? Will there be any upside surprises to economic growth??

3. How will BJP perform in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and most importantly, will the 2019 general elections be a cakewalk for BJP?

4. Will foreign funds continue with investing at Dalal Street?

5. Will there be recovery in corporate profits?



6. Will GST implementation and recovery start improving India’s outlook in 2019?

7. Will Wall Street continue to trade with wild swings?

8. Will Brexit Britain endure an economic recession?

9. Last and the most important catalyst, how will the U.S-China trade war pan out?

Amid this backdrop, we would like to quote Charles Darwin saying, ‘It is not the strongest of species that survives, or the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.’

Well, Charles Darwin may have referred the above to nature; but his adage appears most suitable to the

current environment at Dalal Street. ‘Be Flexible & Focus on long term’ is the winning theme for 2019.

Actually, the economic reality remains far from encouraging. GDP growth of 6.6% for the December 2018

quarter was a 16-quarter low (barring the GST transition quarter of June 17). Additionally, many high

frequency indicators like auto demand and GST collections remain sluggish.

In such a setting, we have toned down a bit our expectations of an outsized return from Dalal Street in the

next two months, but we believe, there is no real need to change or modify your long-term investments.

We expect normalcy to return sooner from the unresolved issues between the U.S. and China on the

trade disputes, global growth concerns and at home concerns like bank recapitalization, managing

fiscal deficit which can be positively addressed. We also believe, the recent reforms will



structurally lead to higher tax collections and system liquidity on backdrop of positive aspects of digital

transactions.

Buying on dips should be the preferred strategy filled with bargain hunting, momentum play

and lots of optimism on backdrop of:

1. RBI & Fed turning dovish.

Among stocks, our preferred bets on buy side on any sizeable corrective declines with 3-5 months perspective are:

1. State Bank of India (SBI). (CMP 321. Targets 375).

2. PVR. (CMP 1647. Targets 2000).

3. ICICI Bank. (CMP 401. Targets 421).

Lastly, the technical landscape is positive at the moment despite overbought conditions. The biggest support level to watch on Nifty is the psychological 11000 mark. If this much watched support-level is violated on the downside then expect major downside risk in the system which can take Nifty initially to 10,500 and then aggressive targets located at 10000 mark. Alternatively, if 11,000 mark holds then Dalal Street would be the much preferred investment destination, targeting 12,000 mark.

Bottom-line: Positive bias in near term amid improving fundamental/sentimental factors. We recommend, investors to keep wearing bullish cap as Nifty is likely to aim psychological 12,000 mark.



Crystal Ball

Silver, Crude Oil and USD/INR. We apply Macro and Trend analysis that lets us vividly present and

communicate the results and give you a credible picture of the future.

is a monthly investment research newsletter that forecasts Sensex, Nifty, Gold,

From the CEO's desk....

Plain simple basics, in-depth techno-fundamental analysis, attempting to accurately predict the unseen and thus, was born “Crystal Ball”

I too wish I had a magical crystal ball that knows what markets are going to do next. I would have loved to gaze at it, all day to see something which is ahead of the crowd.

Vishal Kapil, CEO

DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this recommendation, but Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.

Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd. in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd. makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading

purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures

provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment.

POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)Disclosure of interest statement - • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.



Analyst’s Profile: Pradyut Patnaik is an analyst at Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd. with over two decades of experience. Blending his proprietary technical analysis approach with a thorough understanding of market psychology and with strict discipline, Pradyut has enjoyed success in a variety of market conditions since 1994. Pradyut's willingness to adapt to the trading environment has allowed him flexibility and versatility in an ever-changing market. On a daily basis, Pradyut shares his insights on markets directed towards active traders. He can be reached at [email protected]

About LotusFunds:

The Lotus flower, our identity, is symbolic of prosperity and knowledge, the core of wise investing. As the Lotus rises towards light and blossoms with grace, untouched by impurity and an aspiration to reach higher; so will investments bloom too.

LotusFunds is a fully owned subsidiary of Lotus Analysis Pvt. Ltd. An independent, investment consulting and advisory firm which provides recommendation in stocks and indices traded in India, Europe and American exchanges.

We have one of the finest analytical minds in the business and are distinguished by our proactive consulting approach, timely advice, specific recommendations and implementation assistance.

Our only business is investment consulting and advisory services. 100% of our revenue comes from our investment consulting and advisory relationships.

FOR BROKING OUTFITS

· For broking outfits, LotusFunds has the ability to act as an extension to their research team by offering additional research reports which currently are not provided by them.

· LotusFunds can provide customized and professionally designed reports under the broking outfits banner. This creates a more effective, efficient and professional touch to their delegation of duties.

Please feel free to call us at +91 22 2774 0482 or +91 98200 53399

We would be happy to associate!

crystal ball monday 01st april, 2019 monthly ......2019/04/02 · icici bank. (cmp 401. targets...

Documents