cryospheric responses to anthropogenic pressures in the hindu kush-himalaya regions: impacts on...
TRANSCRIPT
CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources
and society adaptation in Nepal
DHM
Centre d'Etudes Himalayennes
Main objectives of PAPRIKA-Nepal• To contribute to a more accurate assessment of glacier retreat and
snow cover changes in the HKH region and a better understanding of the surface processes governing glacier and snow melt
• To evaluate the distribution and variability of absorbing aerosol particles from anthropogenic origin transported to the high altitude regions of HKH
• To establish and model the current energy budget of snow surfaces, including the effect of absorbing aerosols deposited in snow and their impact on water melting rates.
• To provide climate trends and scenarios at the regional level
• To use these projections to quantify current and future water resource in the area of Nepal
• To study adaptation options of mountain communities to changes in water availability.
• To propose plausible adaptation strategies for changing risks, including analysis of their economic efficiency and benefits within the social welfare context.
WP1 Cryospheric resources:
glacier melting and snow cover mapping
WP3 Climate and Monsoon Variability Modelling
WP4 Modelling the interaction
between snow pack, radiation and aerosols
WP2 Optically Active
Aerosols in snow observation and modelling
ELEMENT 1: Water Ressources input, Climate and Anthropogenic Pressures on the Cryosphere / Climate and Monsoon System
Work Packages
WP5Water Resources in Future Climate Change Scenarii
WP6Perception of Changes by
Population and adaptation within the
four Nepal Geographic Units
WP7Capacity Building and
Dissemination of Information
ELEMENT 2: Impact on the Water Resource System and Population
Work Packages
Snow
General circulation model (LMDz)
Clim
ate
scen
ario
s
Hydrological modelling
Regional model (MARdm) and downscaling
Perception of changes by population
and adaptation
Water resources in future climate change scenarios
Capacity building and dissem
ination of information New Scientific Knowledge (data base, new models, new physics)
Glacier Run-Off
Land Emission
Atmospheric Composition
Benchmark glaciers
Meteorological observation
Ice core
BC
Nepal region
RainfallSnow-pack/glacier
ModellingRemote sensing
WP 1: Water ressource and cryosphere: snow and glacier melting (observation and modelling)
Aerosols: Modification of thermal atmospheric structure, water vapor, clouds and precipitation
Aerosol impact according to glacier faces (snow, ice, debris covered)
Aérosols: Dépots carbone suie et poussières: (Albedo)
WP2: OPTICALLY ACTIVE AEROSOL IN ATMOSPHERE AND SNOW
Brown Cloud seen from the NCO-P station, transported up through the valley
Snow samples from Pyramid , Pokalde and Changri Nup glaciers
NCO-P station, close to Pyramid laboratory
WP3: Climate and monsoon variability
The model(s) used:
LMDz-ORCHIDEE-INCA (SST fixed) Computes the aerosol concentrations and deposition, represent the change in albedo
Coupled IPSL model Changes in the intensity, onset phases and
extent of the monsoon
Incomingsolar
radiation IncomingIR
radiation
Sensible /latent heat fluxes
- conduction- melting / freezing- percolation- settling- metamorphism
Wind
rain snow
SNOWPACK
ATMOSPHERE
GROUND
meltingrun-off
geothermalheat flux
++
+
++
+
incomingradiation
temperature BC content
snowtype
also: density specific surface area diffusion / advection
SNOWPACK MODELING USING CROCUSwith INPUT fromobservations or
regional / global models
Work package 4: MODELLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SNOWPACK, RADIATION, AND THE ABSORBING MATERIAL DEPOSITED IN THE SNOW
albedo
BC deposition
Local 1D modeling of optical snowpack properties for different conditions / altitudes: • glaciers• seasonal snowpack
Quantification of BC impact in snow on• melting rates and days• contribution of the snow melting to the total run-off• sensitivities to future changes in temperature and atmospheric BC
radiation
Implementation of the effect of BC on snow albedo and radiation transfer in the snowpack
Paprika - WP5Future of the water resources
• Input from WP1, WP3, WP4• 3 components
– Glacier melt– Snowpack melt– Rainfall
– Headwater < 200 km²– Upper valley > 1000 km²– Koshi River basin > 20000 km²
• Simulate the discharge under different scenarios at different scales
WP 6: Perception of changes by populations and adaptation
within the four Nepal geographic units
=> consequences of climate change on populations:- changes in water uses due to variations in the availability of the resource + the socio-economic impact.- flood risks in the Terai plain
=> to map areas concerned by change and risk + to estimate affected populations [ using GIS & population census data].
WP7: Local communities and capacity building and dissemination
Objectives:
1/ To confront scientific and local knowledge on the evolution of natural resources and on people’s vulnerability in the face of natural hazards;
3/ To define strategies and plans to enhance local capacities in the face of environmental hazards;
4/ To provide authorities with recommendations on how to consider and integrate people’s ability
Lower Koshi River basinSaptari District – Nepal
Method: Participatory 3-
Dimensional Mapping (P3DM) in Irosin, Philippines,
in January 2010