crown van gelder n.v. velsen presentation 9 february 2007 annual results 2006
TRANSCRIPT
Crown Van Gelder N.V.
Velsen
Presentation 9 February 2007
Annual results 2006
1. Opening
2. Highlights 2006
3. Key figures
4. Production volume and geographical spread of sales volume
5. Pulp shipments, price and volume outlook
6. Raw materials cost
7. Finance
8. Results and outlook European paper companies
9. Outlook Deutsche Bank and Nordea
10. NBD
11. Outlook CVG for 2007
12. Questions
1. Opening
2. Highlights 2006
3. Key figures
4. Production volume and geographical spread of sales volume
5. Pulp shipments, price and volume outlook
6. Raw materials cost
7. Finance
8. Results and outlook European paper companies
9. Outlook Deutsche Bank and Nordea
10. NBD
11. Outlook CVG for 2007
12. Questions
Agenda 9 February 2007
• Net result EUR 2.2 million, down 75% on revised 2005
• Sales volume increase of 4.2% to 208,800 ton
• Selling price up by 1% on 2005
• NBD in line with expectation (15,000 ton)
• Dividend proposal of EUR 1.00 per share certificate (196% pay out)
• Restructuring of paper industry making a good pace
• Net result EUR 2.2 million, down 75% on revised 2005
• Sales volume increase of 4.2% to 208,800 ton
• Selling price up by 1% on 2005
• NBD in line with expectation (15,000 ton)
• Dividend proposal of EUR 1.00 per share certificate (196% pay out)
• Restructuring of paper industry making a good pace
Highlights 2006
Key figures 2002-2006
1) 2005 figure revised
EUR x mln IFRS IFRS IFRS 2003 20022006 2005 2004
Net turnover 150.8 142.2 139.3 139.6 150.6
Operating profit1) 2.4 12.4 12.1 11.4 14.1
Net profit1) 2.2 9.0 8.3 7.9 9.8Depreciation 9.7 9.2 7.9 8.0 9.1Capital expenditure 4.1 21.7 23.1 9.1 8.9
Sales (ton) 208,800 200,400 190,400 181,300 185,000Production (ton) 212,500 197,000 184,000 188,300 184,000Number of employees(on average) 286 296 303 311 310
Equity ratio 75% 78% 82% 88% 89%
WF Uncoated European order inflow
total – 3 weeks average
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
2006
2005
PPC
Bron: Cepifine
Geographical spread of sales volume CVG
10%
19%
22%
13%
15%
6%
15%
Germany
Outside Europe
Other Europe
Belgium/Luxembourg
United Kingdom
France
Netherlands
Production and sales volume CVG
2006 2005 2004 2003Production 212,500 197,000 184,000 188,300Sales 208,800 200,400 190,400 181,300
2006 2005 2004 2003Netherlands 10 12 13 13France 19 15 14 17Germany 22 23 25 25United Kingdom 13 17 17 15Belgium/Luxembourg 15 15 13 12Other Europe 6 4 4 6Outside Europe 15 14 14 12
100% 100% 100% 100%
Shipments of Market Pulp in million tons 2005
Bron: Das Papier
NBSK (benchmark pulp)
Voorwaarden: termijncontracten CIF West-Europese havens
Bron: FOEX/PIX-index
NBSK PIX Prices 2003-2006
350
375400
425450
475
500525
550575
600
625650
675700
725
750775
800825
850
jan-0
3
mrt
-03
mei-03
jul-03
sep-0
3
nov-0
3
jan-0
4
mrt
-04
mei-04
jul-04
sep-0
4
nov-0
4
jan-0
5
mrt
-05
mei-05
jul-05
sep-0
5
nov-0
5
jan-0
6
mrt
-06
mei-06
jul-06
sep-0
6
nov-0
6
jan-0
7
NBSK in EUR NBSK in USD
2006200520042003
BHKP
Voorwaarden: termijncontracten CIF West-Europese havens
Bron: FOEX/PIX-index
BHKP PIX Prices 2003-2006
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
675
700
725
jan
-03
mrt
-03
me
i-0
3
jul-
03
se
p-0
3
no
v-0
3
jan
-04
mrt
-04
me
i-0
4
jul-
04
se
p-0
4
no
v-0
4
jan
-05
mrt
-05
me
i-0
5
jul-
05
se
p-0
5
no
v-0
5
jan
-06
mrt
-06
me
i-0
6
jul-
06
se
p-0
6
no
v-0
6
jan
-07
BHKP in EUR BHKP in USD
2006200520042003
Consolidated profit & loss account(EUR x 1,000) (unaudited)
2006 2005
Net turnover 150,793 142,158
Other income 2,353 201
Total revenue 153,146 142,359
Costs related to turnover (7,226) (7,272)
Raw materials, consumables and energy (106,432) (84,051)
Change in inventories of finished goods 2,549 (1,181)
Employee benefits costs (18,063) (15,173)
Depreciation and amortisation (9,659) (9,239)
Other expenses (11,934) (13,036)
Total operating expenses (150,765) (129,952)
Operating profit 2,381 12,407
Finance income/costs (601) (164)
Share of after tax profit of associate 346 378
Profit on ordinary activities before taxation 2,126 12,621
Tax expense 156 (3,564)
Profit for the year 2,282 9,057
Minority interests (41) (41)
Net profit 2,241 9,016
Result analysis 2006 vs 2005
(EUR mln)
Net turnover 2005 142.2
Paper
- Sales increase +5.9
- Higher prices +1.0
+6.9
Electricity
- Higher supply volume to the public grid +0.1
- Higher prices for supply to the public grid +1.6
+1.7
Net turnover 2006 150.8
Result analysis 2006 vs 2005
(EUR mln)Bleached Pulp- Higher purchase volume +4.6- Higher prices +7.0
+11.6Gas- Higher purchase volume +0.1- Higher price level +8.8
+8.9Electricity- Lower purchase volume (0.1)- Lower MEP-subsidy +0.4
+0.3Total cost increase 2006 vs 2005 +20.8
Consolidated Balance Sheet(before profit appropriation)
(EUR x 1,000) (unaudited)
ASSETS
Non-current assetsProperty, plant and equipment 90,603 96,577Intangible assets 450 78Investment in associate 1,183 1,187Pension asset 7,377 4,800Other assets 2,820 2,929
102,433 105,571Current assetsInventories 26,638 25,895Trade and other receivables 22,855 17,037Tax receivable 1,049 1,539Cash and cash equivalents 1,644 1,120
52,186 45,591Total assets 154,619 151,162
EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
Shareholders' equity 115,789 117,315Minority interests 118 117Total equity 115,907 117,432
Non-current liabilitiesDeferred tax liabilities 6,671 5,246
Current liabilitiesInterest-bearing liabilities 16,249 13,461Trade creditors 9,133 9,468Tax payable 164 110Other short-term liabilities 6,495 5,445
32,041 28,484
Total liabilities 38,712 33,730
Total equity and liabilities 154,619 151,162
31 December 200531 December 2006
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement (EUR x 1,000) (unaudited)
Cash flow from Operating activities
Operating profit 2,381 12,407
Adjustments for:Depreciation and amortisation 9,475 9,239Movements in deferred tax liabilities 1,425 1,134Movements in pension asset (2,577) (4,928)
8,323 5,445Movements in work ing capital:Trade and other receivables (5,818) 2,996Inventories (743) (998)Trade creditors (335) 2,287Other items 1,226 71
(5,670) 4,3565,034 22,208
Finance income/costs (601) (164)Income taxes paid 1,183 (1,515)
582 (1,679)5,616 20,529
Cash flow from Investing activitiesInvestments in property, plant and equipment (3,633) (21,631)Investments in intangible assets (425) (22)Dividends received 350 266Gain on asset sales - 200Disposals of tangible fixed assets 184 -
(3,524) (21,187)Cash flow from Financing activitiesDividends paid (4,356) (4,356)Interest-bearing liabilities 2,788 5,232
(1,568) 876Increase in cash and cash equivalents 524 218Cash and cash equivalents at 1 January 1,120 902Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December 1,644 1,120
2006 2005
Comparison of differences in pension accounting (“corridor approach” versus “SoRIE approach”Comparison of differences in pension accounting (“corridor approach” versus “SoRIE approach”
Pension accounting
EUR x 1,000Balance sheet 31 December 2005 31 December 2006
Pension asset (in "corridor") 5,847 7,377Pension asset (in "SoRIE") 4,800 7,377
Profit and loss account 2005 2006
Net pension expense (in "corridor") 2,120 336Net pension expense (in "SoRIE") 3,464 (936)
Results and outlook European paper companies
• Net profit of EUR 589 mln (2005: EUR -107 mln revised)
• Non-recurring items EUR -134 mln (2005: EUR -417 mln)
• Operating profit Fine Paper division EUR 166 mln (2005: EUR 62 mln)
• Sales volume up 9% to 3.8 mln ton (7 weeks strike in 2005)
• Selling price Fine Paper up 1%
• ROCE Fine Paper 7.1% (2005: 2.4%)
• Net profit of EUR 589 mln (2005: EUR -107 mln revised)
• Non-recurring items EUR -134 mln (2005: EUR -417 mln)
• Operating profit Fine Paper division EUR 166 mln (2005: EUR 62 mln)
• Sales volume up 9% to 3.8 mln ton (7 weeks strike in 2005)
• Selling price Fine Paper up 1%
• ROCE Fine Paper 7.1% (2005: 2.4%)
StoraEnso resultsSales EUR 14,6 billion; 43,900 employees
• Net result increased from EUR 261 mln to EUR 338 mln in 2006
• Non-recurring items EUR -189 mln (2005: EUR -240 mln)
• Operating profit Fine and Speciality Papers division increases from EUR 85 mln to EUR 108 in 2006
• Sales volume up 16% to 3,550 mln ton (2005: effect of Finnish strike and start-up papermachine in China)
• Selling prices -1% (2005: -1%)
• ROCE up to 5.4% (2005: 3.3%)
• Net result increased from EUR 261 mln to EUR 338 mln in 2006
• Non-recurring items EUR -189 mln (2005: EUR -240 mln)
• Operating profit Fine and Speciality Papers division increases from EUR 85 mln to EUR 108 in 2006
• Sales volume up 16% to 3,550 mln ton (2005: effect of Finnish strike and start-up papermachine in China)
• Selling prices -1% (2005: -1%)
• ROCE up to 5.4% (2005: 3.3%)
UPM-Kymmene resultsSales EUR 10,022 mln; 28,704 employees
• Net result of EUR -399 mln (2005: EUR -80 mln)
• Non-recurring items EUR -316 mln (2005: EUR 32 mln)
• Operating profit Office Paper Division EUR 7 mln (2005: EUR 4 mln), excluding non-recurring items
• Sales volume up by 0.5% to 1,039 mln ton
• Selling prices +2.8%
• ROCE Office Paper Division 1.0% (2005: 0.6%), including non-recurring items -2.3% (2005: -0.5%)
• EUR 15 mln write down on Wifsta mill (closure June 2007)
• Net result of EUR -399 mln (2005: EUR -80 mln)
• Non-recurring items EUR -316 mln (2005: EUR 32 mln)
• Operating profit Office Paper Division EUR 7 mln (2005: EUR 4 mln), excluding non-recurring items
• Sales volume up by 0.5% to 1,039 mln ton
• Selling prices +2.8%
• ROCE Office Paper Division 1.0% (2005: 0.6%), including non-recurring items -2.3% (2005: -0.5%)
• EUR 15 mln write down on Wifsta mill (closure June 2007)
M-Real results
Sales EUR 5,6 mln; 14,125 employees
• Board of Directors StoraEnso: “In Europe the outlook for fine paper remains healthy, with demand and shipments in the first quarter predicted to be up on a year ago and the previous quarter. Higher prices are anticipated in uncoated fine paper, and price increases have been announced in coated fine paper …..”
• UPM-Kymmene: “Demand for printing papers is forecast to grow somewhat from last year. The strongest growth in demand will be in emerging markets. We expect paper deliveries to increase over last year. Average paper price is slightly higher in Q1 2007 than Q4 2006.”
• Board of Directors StoraEnso: “In Europe the outlook for fine paper remains healthy, with demand and shipments in the first quarter predicted to be up on a year ago and the previous quarter. Higher prices are anticipated in uncoated fine paper, and price increases have been announced in coated fine paper …..”
• UPM-Kymmene: “Demand for printing papers is forecast to grow somewhat from last year. The strongest growth in demand will be in emerging markets. We expect paper deliveries to increase over last year. Average paper price is slightly higher in Q1 2007 than Q4 2006.”
Outlook
• Mikko Helander (CEO M-Real): “In fine paper products, capacity utalization rates are very high at the beginning of the year. We have initiated measures to increase the prices of fine paper products and are currently confident that we will be able to push through these increases at least in part. Our result for 2007 will be burdened by an increase of production input costs, estimated at more than EUR 100 million. In order to achieve a positive result before taxes …. we must be able to raise the prices of our paper products.”
• Mikko Helander (CEO M-Real): “In fine paper products, capacity utalization rates are very high at the beginning of the year. We have initiated measures to increase the prices of fine paper products and are currently confident that we will be able to push through these increases at least in part. Our result for 2007 will be burdened by an increase of production input costs, estimated at more than EUR 100 million. In order to achieve a positive result before taxes …. we must be able to raise the prices of our paper products.”
Outlook
ROCE Comparison
CVG and Peer Group
% 2006 2005 2004 2003 Target overthe cycle
CVG* 1.9 8.5 10.4 10.2 11.0M-Real** 1.0 0.6 1.3 4.4 12.0StoraEnso** 7.1 2.4 1.9 4.4 13.0UPM-Kymmene** 5.4 3.3 6.1 8.1 16.0
Figures excluding non-recurring items* = 2005 revised** = Fine Paper division
Soporcel
Zicunaga
Ahlstrom Sibille
IP SaillatPap. de Cran
Pont de Claix
A. WigginsIP Taite
SE BPF
UPM NordlandDrewsen
Köhler
M-Real PWA (Stockstadt)
Mondi Szolnok
Arctic Kostryn
IP Kwidzyn
Sappi Maastricht
M-Real Alizey
M-Real PSM
Goricane
Stora Enso Oulo
Stora Enso Veitsuluoto
M-Real Kangas
UPM Tervasaari
IP Svetogorsk
Mondi Syktyvhar
AhlstromM-Real Wifsta Warf
M-Real Husum
Stora Enso Nymölla
ChamZiegler
M-Real UK Paper
UPM Jämsänkoski
Mondi RuzomberokMondi Ybbstal/Kematen
IP Maresquel
Reorganisation 2006
M-Real Zanders (Gohrsmühle)
SE Corbehem
To be closed 2007/08
Mondi Dunaujvaros
Sold to Trierenberg 2006
Closed down
Mill closed 2006
Klippan
Closed down 2006 ReceivershipUntil July 07
Sappi Nash
Sold to investor 2Q06 Tenero
Stora Enso Varkaus
SE Grycksbo
SE Uetersen
UPM VoikkaaUPM Kymi
Mill closed 3Q06
Mill closed 3Q06
UPM Docelles
To be closed 2007
PM3 & PM4 closed 2Q06
Closed down
‘0701: Investment in Jämsänkoski mill
‘0701: - 235,000 t WFU / - 215,000 t SC
Under review 2007
Reorganisation 2006
IP USA sold coated and superc. business (2,000,000 tpa) 2Q06
IP USA will convert 350,000 t uncoated to 500.000 t liner board 2007
IP Brazil expansion focus uncoated paper
Start-up new 500K tpaWFU PM planned 1H09 ?
IP China Studying uncoated freesheet machine
‘0606: - 700,000 t / -2,500 employees
‘0606: - 370,000 t / - 2,500 employees
‘0701: - 175,000 t WFU / - 310,000 t WFC
‘0606: - 120,000 t WFU / - 240 employees
‘0606: - 45,000 t WFU
‘0701: Future growth outside North America
‘0701: Focus WFU A4 and sheets
‘0606: + 500,000 t WFU in 2009 ?
Mondi RSA PM31 switch to WFU office paper late 2005
Question markPM1 modernization 4Q07
To be closed 2007SE Reisholz
Question mark
PM6 & 7 to be closed Feb 2007
To be closed 1H07
PM2 limited 1Q07
Cham Hunsfos
Coater shut down 2H06
PM6 to be closed 2Q07
Pulpline to be closed 2Q07
PM8 overhauled 1Q06
PM4 to be converted 2Q07
Pulp production to be modernised 1Q08
PM7 Closed 3Q06Bankrupt, sold to investor
Sold to financial investor 1H06
PM3 modernization 4Q07
PM1 revamp 2Q06
Demand forest, Western Europe
06E 07E 08E 96-05 05-08ENewsprint 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.7%Coated magazine paper (LWC) 1.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.3% 1.8%Uncoated magazine paper (SC) 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 3.0%Coated fine paper 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.7%Uncoated fine paper 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%Kraftliner 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.4% 2.3%Testliner 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.1% 2.3%
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates
Deutsche Bank Sector Outlook
New estimates CAGR
Deutsche Bank Sector Outlook
Product price forecasts
06A 07E 08ENewsprint 5.0% 7.0% 5.0%Coated magazine paper (LWC) 0.0% 3.0% 6.0%Uncoated magazine paper (SC) 0.0% 3.0% 6.0%Soacted fine paper -3.0% 3.0% 6.0%Uncoated fine paper 1.0% 5.0% 5.0%Cartonboard 0.0% 2.0% 1.0%Kraftliner 15.0% 8.0% 0.0%Testliner 22.0% 9.0% 0.0%NBSK pulp (USD) 11.0% 4.5% 2.0%Eucalyptus pulp 9.0% -5.0% 3.0%
Source: Deutsche Bank estimates
New estimates
Nordea P&P Market Monitor
Monthly prices Publication paper Fine Papers Containerboard Market Pulp Recovered PaperW. Europe and US Newsprint SC LWC UWF CWF Kraftliner Testliner NBSK BHKP Sort.graph Corr.P&B
WE/GermanyCurrent price (EUR/t) 490 580 700 820 700 535 395 730 515 70 60Current vs last month 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Current vs end-2005 8% 0% 0% 4% 0% 20% 27% 22% 3% 11% 28%Current vs 2005 ave 8% 0% 0% 4% -3% 23% 33% 20% 11% 6% 8%Current vs 2004 ave 13% 1% 3% -2% -4% 26% 27% 19% 24% -11% -2%
NA/USACurrent prince (US$/t) 646 775 195 840 910 530 630 770 685 84 74Current vs last month -2% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 6%Current vs end-2005 2% -1% -10% 9% 3% 20% 5% 20% 15% 14% 25%Current vs 2005 ave 8% 1% -6% 10% 5% 19% 10% 19% 14% 2% -10%Current vs 2004 ave 19% 9% 10% 14% 17% 20% 19% 20% 28% -1% -15%
Versamark VT 3000 / VX 5000 Inkjet = contactloos & snel Xeikon 6000
HP Indigo 3250 Oce Variostream 9000Xerox iGen3
World players of digital printers
NBDNBD
Source: PIRA International
Development of printing presses
Source: PIRA International
Development digital printing
Crown Digital range
Outlook for 2007
• Volume up to 217,000 ton
• Positive effect of reduction in capacity will gain momentum
• Gradual price increases
• Cost pushes from pulp price and energy costs
• Strict control on costs and investments
• Outlook 2007 yet uncertain
• Volume up to 217,000 ton
• Positive effect of reduction in capacity will gain momentum
• Gradual price increases
• Cost pushes from pulp price and energy costs
• Strict control on costs and investments
• Outlook 2007 yet uncertain
Product portfolio
Questions Questions