crown van gelder n.v. velsen presentation 9 february 2007 annual results 2006

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Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

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Page 2: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

1. Opening

2. Highlights 2006

3. Key figures

4. Production volume and geographical spread of sales volume

5. Pulp shipments, price and volume outlook

6. Raw materials cost

7. Finance

8. Results and outlook European paper companies

9. Outlook Deutsche Bank and Nordea

10. NBD

11. Outlook CVG for 2007

12. Questions

1. Opening

2. Highlights 2006

3. Key figures

4. Production volume and geographical spread of sales volume

5. Pulp shipments, price and volume outlook

6. Raw materials cost

7. Finance

8. Results and outlook European paper companies

9. Outlook Deutsche Bank and Nordea

10. NBD

11. Outlook CVG for 2007

12. Questions

Agenda 9 February 2007

Page 3: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

• Net result EUR 2.2 million, down 75% on revised 2005

• Sales volume increase of 4.2% to 208,800 ton

• Selling price up by 1% on 2005

• NBD in line with expectation (15,000 ton)

• Dividend proposal of EUR 1.00 per share certificate (196% pay out)

• Restructuring of paper industry making a good pace

• Net result EUR 2.2 million, down 75% on revised 2005

• Sales volume increase of 4.2% to 208,800 ton

• Selling price up by 1% on 2005

• NBD in line with expectation (15,000 ton)

• Dividend proposal of EUR 1.00 per share certificate (196% pay out)

• Restructuring of paper industry making a good pace

Highlights 2006

Page 4: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Key figures 2002-2006

1) 2005 figure revised

EUR x mln IFRS IFRS IFRS 2003 20022006 2005 2004

Net turnover 150.8 142.2 139.3 139.6 150.6

Operating profit1) 2.4 12.4 12.1 11.4 14.1

Net profit1) 2.2 9.0 8.3 7.9 9.8Depreciation 9.7 9.2 7.9 8.0 9.1Capital expenditure 4.1 21.7 23.1 9.1 8.9

Sales (ton) 208,800 200,400 190,400 181,300 185,000Production (ton) 212,500 197,000 184,000 188,300 184,000Number of employees(on average) 286 296 303 311 310

Equity ratio 75% 78% 82% 88% 89%

Page 5: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

WF Uncoated European order inflow

total – 3 weeks average

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

2006

2005

PPC

Bron: Cepifine

Page 6: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Geographical spread of sales volume CVG

10%

19%

22%

13%

15%

6%

15%

Germany

Outside Europe

Other Europe

Belgium/Luxembourg

United Kingdom

France

Netherlands

Production and sales volume CVG

2006 2005 2004 2003Production 212,500 197,000 184,000 188,300Sales 208,800 200,400 190,400 181,300

2006 2005 2004 2003Netherlands 10 12 13 13France 19 15 14 17Germany 22 23 25 25United Kingdom 13 17 17 15Belgium/Luxembourg 15 15 13 12Other Europe 6 4 4 6Outside Europe 15 14 14 12

100% 100% 100% 100%

Page 7: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Shipments of Market Pulp in million tons 2005

Bron: Das Papier

Page 8: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

NBSK (benchmark pulp)

Voorwaarden: termijncontracten CIF West-Europese havens

Bron: FOEX/PIX-index

NBSK PIX Prices 2003-2006

350

375400

425450

475

500525

550575

600

625650

675700

725

750775

800825

850

jan-0

3

mrt

-03

mei-03

jul-03

sep-0

3

nov-0

3

jan-0

4

mrt

-04

mei-04

jul-04

sep-0

4

nov-0

4

jan-0

5

mrt

-05

mei-05

jul-05

sep-0

5

nov-0

5

jan-0

6

mrt

-06

mei-06

jul-06

sep-0

6

nov-0

6

jan-0

7

NBSK in EUR NBSK in USD

2006200520042003

Page 9: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

BHKP

Voorwaarden: termijncontracten CIF West-Europese havens

Bron: FOEX/PIX-index

BHKP PIX Prices 2003-2006

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

675

700

725

jan

-03

mrt

-03

me

i-0

3

jul-

03

se

p-0

3

no

v-0

3

jan

-04

mrt

-04

me

i-0

4

jul-

04

se

p-0

4

no

v-0

4

jan

-05

mrt

-05

me

i-0

5

jul-

05

se

p-0

5

no

v-0

5

jan

-06

mrt

-06

me

i-0

6

jul-

06

se

p-0

6

no

v-0

6

jan

-07

BHKP in EUR BHKP in USD

2006200520042003

Page 10: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Consolidated profit & loss account(EUR x 1,000) (unaudited)

2006 2005

Net turnover 150,793 142,158

Other income 2,353 201

Total revenue 153,146 142,359

Costs related to turnover (7,226) (7,272)

Raw materials, consumables and energy (106,432) (84,051)

Change in inventories of finished goods 2,549 (1,181)

Employee benefits costs (18,063) (15,173)

Depreciation and amortisation (9,659) (9,239)

Other expenses (11,934) (13,036)

Total operating expenses (150,765) (129,952)

Operating profit 2,381 12,407

Finance income/costs (601) (164)

Share of after tax profit of associate 346 378

Profit on ordinary activities before taxation 2,126 12,621

Tax expense 156 (3,564)

Profit for the year 2,282 9,057

Minority interests (41) (41)

Net profit 2,241 9,016

Page 11: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Result analysis 2006 vs 2005

(EUR mln)

Net turnover 2005 142.2

Paper

- Sales increase +5.9

- Higher prices +1.0

+6.9

Electricity

- Higher supply volume to the public grid +0.1

- Higher prices for supply to the public grid +1.6

+1.7

Net turnover 2006 150.8

Page 12: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Result analysis 2006 vs 2005

(EUR mln)Bleached Pulp- Higher purchase volume +4.6- Higher prices +7.0

+11.6Gas- Higher purchase volume +0.1- Higher price level +8.8

+8.9Electricity- Lower purchase volume (0.1)- Lower MEP-subsidy +0.4

+0.3Total cost increase 2006 vs 2005 +20.8

Page 13: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Consolidated Balance Sheet(before profit appropriation)

(EUR x 1,000) (unaudited)

ASSETS

Non-current assetsProperty, plant and equipment 90,603 96,577Intangible assets 450 78Investment in associate 1,183 1,187Pension asset 7,377 4,800Other assets 2,820 2,929

102,433 105,571Current assetsInventories 26,638 25,895Trade and other receivables 22,855 17,037Tax receivable 1,049 1,539Cash and cash equivalents 1,644 1,120

52,186 45,591Total assets 154,619 151,162

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES

Shareholders' equity 115,789 117,315Minority interests 118 117Total equity 115,907 117,432

Non-current liabilitiesDeferred tax liabilities 6,671 5,246

Current liabilitiesInterest-bearing liabilities 16,249 13,461Trade creditors 9,133 9,468Tax payable 164 110Other short-term liabilities 6,495 5,445

32,041 28,484

Total liabilities 38,712 33,730

Total equity and liabilities 154,619 151,162

31 December 200531 December 2006

Page 14: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Consolidated Cash Flow Statement (EUR x 1,000) (unaudited)

Cash flow from Operating activities

Operating profit 2,381 12,407

Adjustments for:Depreciation and amortisation 9,475 9,239Movements in deferred tax liabilities 1,425 1,134Movements in pension asset (2,577) (4,928)

8,323 5,445Movements in work ing capital:Trade and other receivables (5,818) 2,996Inventories (743) (998)Trade creditors (335) 2,287Other items 1,226 71

(5,670) 4,3565,034 22,208

Finance income/costs (601) (164)Income taxes paid 1,183 (1,515)

582 (1,679)5,616 20,529

Cash flow from Investing activitiesInvestments in property, plant and equipment (3,633) (21,631)Investments in intangible assets (425) (22)Dividends received 350 266Gain on asset sales - 200Disposals of tangible fixed assets 184 -

(3,524) (21,187)Cash flow from Financing activitiesDividends paid (4,356) (4,356)Interest-bearing liabilities 2,788 5,232

(1,568) 876Increase in cash and cash equivalents 524 218Cash and cash equivalents at 1 January 1,120 902Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December 1,644 1,120

2006 2005

Page 15: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Comparison of differences in pension accounting (“corridor approach” versus “SoRIE approach”Comparison of differences in pension accounting (“corridor approach” versus “SoRIE approach”

Pension accounting

EUR x 1,000Balance sheet 31 December 2005 31 December 2006

Pension asset (in "corridor") 5,847 7,377Pension asset (in "SoRIE") 4,800 7,377

Profit and loss account 2005 2006

Net pension expense (in "corridor") 2,120 336Net pension expense (in "SoRIE") 3,464 (936)

Page 17: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

• Net profit of EUR 589 mln (2005: EUR -107 mln revised)

• Non-recurring items EUR -134 mln (2005: EUR -417 mln)

• Operating profit Fine Paper division EUR 166 mln (2005: EUR 62 mln)

• Sales volume up 9% to 3.8 mln ton (7 weeks strike in 2005)

• Selling price Fine Paper up 1%

• ROCE Fine Paper 7.1% (2005: 2.4%)

• Net profit of EUR 589 mln (2005: EUR -107 mln revised)

• Non-recurring items EUR -134 mln (2005: EUR -417 mln)

• Operating profit Fine Paper division EUR 166 mln (2005: EUR 62 mln)

• Sales volume up 9% to 3.8 mln ton (7 weeks strike in 2005)

• Selling price Fine Paper up 1%

• ROCE Fine Paper 7.1% (2005: 2.4%)

StoraEnso resultsSales EUR 14,6 billion; 43,900 employees

Page 18: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

• Net result increased from EUR 261 mln to EUR 338 mln in 2006

• Non-recurring items EUR -189 mln (2005: EUR -240 mln)

• Operating profit Fine and Speciality Papers division increases from EUR 85 mln to EUR 108 in 2006

• Sales volume up 16% to 3,550 mln ton (2005: effect of Finnish strike and start-up papermachine in China)

• Selling prices -1% (2005: -1%)

• ROCE up to 5.4% (2005: 3.3%)

• Net result increased from EUR 261 mln to EUR 338 mln in 2006

• Non-recurring items EUR -189 mln (2005: EUR -240 mln)

• Operating profit Fine and Speciality Papers division increases from EUR 85 mln to EUR 108 in 2006

• Sales volume up 16% to 3,550 mln ton (2005: effect of Finnish strike and start-up papermachine in China)

• Selling prices -1% (2005: -1%)

• ROCE up to 5.4% (2005: 3.3%)

UPM-Kymmene resultsSales EUR 10,022 mln; 28,704 employees

Page 19: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

• Net result of EUR -399 mln (2005: EUR -80 mln)

• Non-recurring items EUR -316 mln (2005: EUR 32 mln)

• Operating profit Office Paper Division EUR 7 mln (2005: EUR 4 mln), excluding non-recurring items

• Sales volume up by 0.5% to 1,039 mln ton

• Selling prices +2.8%

• ROCE Office Paper Division 1.0% (2005: 0.6%), including non-recurring items -2.3% (2005: -0.5%)

• EUR 15 mln write down on Wifsta mill (closure June 2007)

• Net result of EUR -399 mln (2005: EUR -80 mln)

• Non-recurring items EUR -316 mln (2005: EUR 32 mln)

• Operating profit Office Paper Division EUR 7 mln (2005: EUR 4 mln), excluding non-recurring items

• Sales volume up by 0.5% to 1,039 mln ton

• Selling prices +2.8%

• ROCE Office Paper Division 1.0% (2005: 0.6%), including non-recurring items -2.3% (2005: -0.5%)

• EUR 15 mln write down on Wifsta mill (closure June 2007)

M-Real results

Sales EUR 5,6 mln; 14,125 employees

Page 20: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

• Board of Directors StoraEnso: “In Europe the outlook for fine paper remains healthy, with demand and shipments in the first quarter predicted to be up on a year ago and the previous quarter. Higher prices are anticipated in uncoated fine paper, and price increases have been announced in coated fine paper …..”

• UPM-Kymmene: “Demand for printing papers is forecast to grow somewhat from last year. The strongest growth in demand will be in emerging markets. We expect paper deliveries to increase over last year. Average paper price is slightly higher in Q1 2007 than Q4 2006.”

• Board of Directors StoraEnso: “In Europe the outlook for fine paper remains healthy, with demand and shipments in the first quarter predicted to be up on a year ago and the previous quarter. Higher prices are anticipated in uncoated fine paper, and price increases have been announced in coated fine paper …..”

• UPM-Kymmene: “Demand for printing papers is forecast to grow somewhat from last year. The strongest growth in demand will be in emerging markets. We expect paper deliveries to increase over last year. Average paper price is slightly higher in Q1 2007 than Q4 2006.”

Outlook

Page 21: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

• Mikko Helander (CEO M-Real): “In fine paper products, capacity utalization rates are very high at the beginning of the year. We have initiated measures to increase the prices of fine paper products and are currently confident that we will be able to push through these increases at least in part. Our result for 2007 will be burdened by an increase of production input costs, estimated at more than EUR 100 million. In order to achieve a positive result before taxes …. we must be able to raise the prices of our paper products.”

• Mikko Helander (CEO M-Real): “In fine paper products, capacity utalization rates are very high at the beginning of the year. We have initiated measures to increase the prices of fine paper products and are currently confident that we will be able to push through these increases at least in part. Our result for 2007 will be burdened by an increase of production input costs, estimated at more than EUR 100 million. In order to achieve a positive result before taxes …. we must be able to raise the prices of our paper products.”

Outlook

Page 22: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

ROCE Comparison

CVG and Peer Group

% 2006 2005 2004 2003 Target overthe cycle

CVG* 1.9 8.5 10.4 10.2 11.0M-Real** 1.0 0.6 1.3 4.4 12.0StoraEnso** 7.1 2.4 1.9 4.4 13.0UPM-Kymmene** 5.4 3.3 6.1 8.1 16.0

Figures excluding non-recurring items* = 2005 revised** = Fine Paper division

Page 23: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Soporcel

Zicunaga

Ahlstrom Sibille

IP SaillatPap. de Cran

Pont de Claix

A. WigginsIP Taite

SE BPF

UPM NordlandDrewsen

Köhler

M-Real PWA (Stockstadt)

Mondi Szolnok

Arctic Kostryn

IP Kwidzyn

Sappi Maastricht

M-Real Alizey

M-Real PSM

Goricane

Stora Enso Oulo

Stora Enso Veitsuluoto

M-Real Kangas

UPM Tervasaari

IP Svetogorsk

Mondi Syktyvhar

AhlstromM-Real Wifsta Warf

M-Real Husum

Stora Enso Nymölla

ChamZiegler

M-Real UK Paper

UPM Jämsänkoski

Mondi RuzomberokMondi Ybbstal/Kematen

IP Maresquel

Reorganisation 2006

M-Real Zanders (Gohrsmühle)

SE Corbehem

To be closed 2007/08

Mondi Dunaujvaros

Sold to Trierenberg 2006

Closed down

Mill closed 2006

Klippan

Closed down 2006 ReceivershipUntil July 07

Sappi Nash

Sold to investor 2Q06 Tenero

Stora Enso Varkaus

SE Grycksbo

SE Uetersen

UPM VoikkaaUPM Kymi

Mill closed 3Q06

Mill closed 3Q06

UPM Docelles

To be closed 2007

PM3 & PM4 closed 2Q06

Closed down

‘0701: Investment in Jämsänkoski mill

‘0701: - 235,000 t WFU / - 215,000 t SC

Under review 2007

Reorganisation 2006

IP USA sold coated and superc. business (2,000,000 tpa) 2Q06

IP USA will convert 350,000 t uncoated to 500.000 t liner board 2007

IP Brazil expansion focus uncoated paper

Start-up new 500K tpaWFU PM planned 1H09 ?

IP China Studying uncoated freesheet machine

‘0606: - 700,000 t / -2,500 employees

‘0606: - 370,000 t / - 2,500 employees

‘0701: - 175,000 t WFU / - 310,000 t WFC

‘0606: - 120,000 t WFU / - 240 employees

‘0606: - 45,000 t WFU

‘0701: Future growth outside North America

‘0701: Focus WFU A4 and sheets

‘0606: + 500,000 t WFU in 2009 ?

Mondi RSA PM31 switch to WFU office paper late 2005

Question markPM1 modernization 4Q07

To be closed 2007SE Reisholz

Question mark

PM6 & 7 to be closed Feb 2007

To be closed 1H07

PM2 limited 1Q07

Cham Hunsfos

Coater shut down 2H06

PM6 to be closed 2Q07

Pulpline to be closed 2Q07

PM8 overhauled 1Q06

PM4 to be converted 2Q07

Pulp production to be modernised 1Q08

PM7 Closed 3Q06Bankrupt, sold to investor

Sold to financial investor 1H06

PM3 modernization 4Q07

PM1 revamp 2Q06

Page 24: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Demand forest, Western Europe

06E 07E 08E 96-05 05-08ENewsprint 2.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.7%Coated magazine paper (LWC) 1.5% 1.5% 2.5% 4.3% 1.8%Uncoated magazine paper (SC) 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 3.0%Coated fine paper 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 2.7%Uncoated fine paper 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%Kraftliner 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.4% 2.3%Testliner 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.1% 2.3%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

Deutsche Bank Sector Outlook

New estimates CAGR

Page 25: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Deutsche Bank Sector Outlook

Product price forecasts

06A 07E 08ENewsprint 5.0% 7.0% 5.0%Coated magazine paper (LWC) 0.0% 3.0% 6.0%Uncoated magazine paper (SC) 0.0% 3.0% 6.0%Soacted fine paper -3.0% 3.0% 6.0%Uncoated fine paper 1.0% 5.0% 5.0%Cartonboard 0.0% 2.0% 1.0%Kraftliner 15.0% 8.0% 0.0%Testliner 22.0% 9.0% 0.0%NBSK pulp (USD) 11.0% 4.5% 2.0%Eucalyptus pulp 9.0% -5.0% 3.0%

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates

New estimates

Page 26: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Nordea P&P Market Monitor

Monthly prices Publication paper Fine Papers Containerboard Market Pulp Recovered PaperW. Europe and US Newsprint SC LWC UWF CWF Kraftliner Testliner NBSK BHKP Sort.graph Corr.P&B

WE/GermanyCurrent price (EUR/t) 490 580 700 820 700 535 395 730 515 70 60Current vs last month 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Current vs end-2005 8% 0% 0% 4% 0% 20% 27% 22% 3% 11% 28%Current vs 2005 ave 8% 0% 0% 4% -3% 23% 33% 20% 11% 6% 8%Current vs 2004 ave 13% 1% 3% -2% -4% 26% 27% 19% 24% -11% -2%

NA/USACurrent prince (US$/t) 646 775 195 840 910 530 630 770 685 84 74Current vs last month -2% -1% -1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 6%Current vs end-2005 2% -1% -10% 9% 3% 20% 5% 20% 15% 14% 25%Current vs 2005 ave 8% 1% -6% 10% 5% 19% 10% 19% 14% 2% -10%Current vs 2004 ave 19% 9% 10% 14% 17% 20% 19% 20% 28% -1% -15%

Page 27: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Versamark VT 3000 / VX 5000 Inkjet = contactloos & snel Xeikon 6000

HP Indigo 3250 Oce Variostream 9000Xerox iGen3

World players of digital printers

NBDNBD

Page 28: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Source: PIRA International

Development of printing presses

Page 29: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Source: PIRA International

Development digital printing

Page 30: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Crown Digital range

Page 31: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Outlook for 2007

• Volume up to 217,000 ton

• Positive effect of reduction in capacity will gain momentum

• Gradual price increases

• Cost pushes from pulp price and energy costs

• Strict control on costs and investments

• Outlook 2007 yet uncertain

• Volume up to 217,000 ton

• Positive effect of reduction in capacity will gain momentum

• Gradual price increases

• Cost pushes from pulp price and energy costs

• Strict control on costs and investments

• Outlook 2007 yet uncertain

Page 32: Crown Van Gelder N.V. Velsen Presentation 9 February 2007 Annual results 2006

Product portfolio

Questions Questions