CROP MODEL I: Overview and possible applications

Becky Chaplin-Kramer NatCap Olympics

4.23.2012

InVEST Crop Model

Foley et al. 2011

• What are the trade-offs in clearing land for agriculture? • What is the value of ecosystem services to agriculture?

InVEST Crop “Model”

• Atypical ecosystem service – heavily managed– market already exists– decades of globally available data!

• Atypical approach (for InVEST)

Crop Yield

Intermediate Inputs

Crop Value

Crop Yield Model

• Estimated (observed or average) yields

• Modeled yields– Intensified yields

(75% attainable)– Unintensified yields

(25% attainable)

Foley et al. 2011

Crop Yield Intermediate

Inputs

Crop Value

Intermediate InputsMapping N, P, K and irrigation rates as:– inputs to Crop Value model (input costs)– possible inputs to

other InVEST models (nutrient retention, water yield)

Crop Yield Intermediate

Inputs

Crop Value

Crop Value ModelReturns = Revenue – Costs– Revenue = Price x Yield* x Area– Costs:

Crop Yield Intermediate

Inputs

Crop Value

Crop Yield Model, in detail• Start with user-

generated crop map • Get estimated and modeled

(% attainable) yields

Forest

Grassland

Maize

Soy

SoyWheat

Maize

MaizeRiparian

• InVEST data includes: – observed yield maps for 175 crops– climate bin maps for 175 crops– income bin map (World Bank/OECD designation)– climate/income bin average yield table– attainable yield table (Foley et al. model)

Crop Yield Model:Mapping Estimated Yields

first try looking at observed yield maps

if no data, take average for that climate/income

bin HIyield MIyieldLIyield1 8.2 6.1 3.42 7.6 4.9 2.7…

Crop Yield Model:Mapping Modeled Yields

• Foley et al. (2011): attainable yield = 95th percentile yield within each climate bin

“Unintensified” yields “Intensified” yields

Crop Yield ModelNext Steps: Downscaling

• Higher resolution climate data to assign bins on the fly, capture local climate heterogeneity

SSURGO

• Data validation project with local yield datasets, regress other parameters

Crop Model Applications: Unilever Contract

How will changes in corporate crop consumption affect land-use, ecosystem services?

Library of Congress

Crop Model Applications:Mapping Nutrition

• Nutrient = ∑(Yieldc - Refusec) x Areac x Nutrientc

• Next step: Nutrition = Nutrient x RDA x Population density• Still need: animal products, bioavailability

How much of required nutrition is produced locally?

Vitamin C

Which areas are most vulnerable, what aspects make them vulnerable, and how to address?

• Poverty, access to markets?• Climate change, variability?• Pollination dependence?• Closing yield gaps, crop-switching, diversification?

Crop Model Applications:Mapping Nutrition Vulnerability