critically assess whether climate change is reshaping the global security agenda
DESCRIPTION
Climate change is one of the most challenging issues being faced by the global economy in the 21st century. Apart from the fact that significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the scientific research on climate change, its implications have become so far-reaching that it now threatens to reshape the global security agenda of the 21st century. As to who would be most affected by climate change, research has shown with certainty that Africa would suffer the most. The environment within this region particularly in Darfur, Sudan is already suffering from the negative effects of climate change. Increased desertification coupled with declining rainfall and increased drought has forced many darfurians to clash with each other over access to vital resources such as land and water. These clashes have worsened already existing tensions between ethnic and political groups in the region. This research therefore (through the case of darfur) endeavours to determine the linkages between climate change and security so as to determine the extent to which the climate change is reshaping the global security agenda.TRANSCRIPT
CRITICALLY ASSESS WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS RESHAPING
THE GLOBAL SECURITY AGENDA THE CASE OF DARFUR
Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste
2009
CRITICALLY ASSESS WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS RESHAPING
THE GLOBAL SECURITY AGENDA THE CASE OF DARFUR
A Thesis
Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science in International Relations
of
The University of the West Indies
Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste
2009
Institute of International Relations
Faculty of Social Sciences
St Augustine Campus
ABSTRACT
Critically assess whether Climate Change is reshaping the Global Security Agenda The Case of
Darfur
Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste
Climate change is one of the most challenging issues being faced by the global economy in the
21st century Apart from the fact that significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the
scientific research on climate change its implications have become so far-reaching that it now
threatens to reshape the global security agenda of the 21st century As to who would be most
affected by climate change research has shown with certainty that Africa would suffer the most
The environment within this region particularly in Darfur Sudan is already suffering from the
negative effects of climate change Increased desertification coupled with declining rainfall and
increased drought has forced many darfurians to clash with each other over access to vital
resources such as land and water These clashes have worsened already existing tensions
between ethnic and political groups in the region The thesis therefore (through the case of
darfur) endeavours to determine the linkages between climate change and security so as to
determine the extent to which the climate change is reshaping the global security agenda
Keywords Climate Change Security Darfur Climate Governance
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank my supervisor Dr Gail TC Rigobert of the Institute of International
Relations at the University of the West Indies my sister Gail Marlene Baptiste as well as my
friends for all their help with my Master‟s Thesis over the past year
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACThelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipv
INTRODUCTION 7
OBJECTIVES 9
DELIMITATIONS 10
METHODOLOGY 11
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW 14
CHAPTER IITHE CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY CONNECTION 20
THE DRIVE FOR RESOURCES ENERGY SECURITYhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip21
FOOD SECURITY 23
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES 24
CHAPTER III THE CASE OF DARFUR 26
CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 26
THE ETHNIC COMPOSTION OF DARFUR 27
THE ECOLOGY OF DARFUR 28
THE HISTORY OF CONFLICT 29 THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE OF DARFUR 31 LAND ISSUES 31
RESOURCE WARS 33
CLIMATE CHANGE IN DARFUR THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE CONFLICT 34
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE 38
GREEN GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL 38
ECOLOGICAL MODERNISATION 39
CIVIC ENVIRONMENTALISM 40 RADICAL RESISTANCE 40
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN DARFUR 41
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS 43
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) 43 THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) 44
THE ldquoJANJAWEEDrdquo MILITIA GROUP 45
ARAB AND NON-ARAB TRIBES 46
THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) 46
THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) 47
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA 48
TERRORISM 48
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 50
CONCLUSION 53
BIBLOGRAPHY 55
APPENDICES 62
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
APPENDIX TITLE PAGE
1 THE DARFUR REGION 62
2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR 63
3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 64
4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN 65
5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR 66
6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR 67
7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 200768
INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels
Not only have former sceptics such as George W Bush recognised the problem but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of bdquohigh
politics‟ namely security politics The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere Or has it In the scientific community a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change2 But there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled And as such all that remains now is further perfection of
1 See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 2 The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place 3 See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (Geneva Switzerland
2001) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CRITICALLY ASSESS WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS RESHAPING
THE GLOBAL SECURITY AGENDA THE CASE OF DARFUR
A Thesis
Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science in International Relations
of
The University of the West Indies
Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste
2009
Institute of International Relations
Faculty of Social Sciences
St Augustine Campus
ABSTRACT
Critically assess whether Climate Change is reshaping the Global Security Agenda The Case of
Darfur
Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste
Climate change is one of the most challenging issues being faced by the global economy in the
21st century Apart from the fact that significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the
scientific research on climate change its implications have become so far-reaching that it now
threatens to reshape the global security agenda of the 21st century As to who would be most
affected by climate change research has shown with certainty that Africa would suffer the most
The environment within this region particularly in Darfur Sudan is already suffering from the
negative effects of climate change Increased desertification coupled with declining rainfall and
increased drought has forced many darfurians to clash with each other over access to vital
resources such as land and water These clashes have worsened already existing tensions
between ethnic and political groups in the region The thesis therefore (through the case of
darfur) endeavours to determine the linkages between climate change and security so as to
determine the extent to which the climate change is reshaping the global security agenda
Keywords Climate Change Security Darfur Climate Governance
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank my supervisor Dr Gail TC Rigobert of the Institute of International
Relations at the University of the West Indies my sister Gail Marlene Baptiste as well as my
friends for all their help with my Master‟s Thesis over the past year
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACThelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipv
INTRODUCTION 7
OBJECTIVES 9
DELIMITATIONS 10
METHODOLOGY 11
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW 14
CHAPTER IITHE CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY CONNECTION 20
THE DRIVE FOR RESOURCES ENERGY SECURITYhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip21
FOOD SECURITY 23
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES 24
CHAPTER III THE CASE OF DARFUR 26
CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 26
THE ETHNIC COMPOSTION OF DARFUR 27
THE ECOLOGY OF DARFUR 28
THE HISTORY OF CONFLICT 29 THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE OF DARFUR 31 LAND ISSUES 31
RESOURCE WARS 33
CLIMATE CHANGE IN DARFUR THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE CONFLICT 34
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE 38
GREEN GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL 38
ECOLOGICAL MODERNISATION 39
CIVIC ENVIRONMENTALISM 40 RADICAL RESISTANCE 40
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN DARFUR 41
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS 43
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) 43 THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) 44
THE ldquoJANJAWEEDrdquo MILITIA GROUP 45
ARAB AND NON-ARAB TRIBES 46
THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) 46
THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) 47
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA 48
TERRORISM 48
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 50
CONCLUSION 53
BIBLOGRAPHY 55
APPENDICES 62
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
APPENDIX TITLE PAGE
1 THE DARFUR REGION 62
2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR 63
3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 64
4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN 65
5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR 66
6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR 67
7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 200768
INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels
Not only have former sceptics such as George W Bush recognised the problem but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of bdquohigh
politics‟ namely security politics The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere Or has it In the scientific community a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change2 But there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled And as such all that remains now is further perfection of
1 See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 2 The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place 3 See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (Geneva Switzerland
2001) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
ABSTRACT
Critically assess whether Climate Change is reshaping the Global Security Agenda The Case of
Darfur
Julianna Vanessa Crystal Baptiste
Climate change is one of the most challenging issues being faced by the global economy in the
21st century Apart from the fact that significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the
scientific research on climate change its implications have become so far-reaching that it now
threatens to reshape the global security agenda of the 21st century As to who would be most
affected by climate change research has shown with certainty that Africa would suffer the most
The environment within this region particularly in Darfur Sudan is already suffering from the
negative effects of climate change Increased desertification coupled with declining rainfall and
increased drought has forced many darfurians to clash with each other over access to vital
resources such as land and water These clashes have worsened already existing tensions
between ethnic and political groups in the region The thesis therefore (through the case of
darfur) endeavours to determine the linkages between climate change and security so as to
determine the extent to which the climate change is reshaping the global security agenda
Keywords Climate Change Security Darfur Climate Governance
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank my supervisor Dr Gail TC Rigobert of the Institute of International
Relations at the University of the West Indies my sister Gail Marlene Baptiste as well as my
friends for all their help with my Master‟s Thesis over the past year
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACThelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipv
INTRODUCTION 7
OBJECTIVES 9
DELIMITATIONS 10
METHODOLOGY 11
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW 14
CHAPTER IITHE CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY CONNECTION 20
THE DRIVE FOR RESOURCES ENERGY SECURITYhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip21
FOOD SECURITY 23
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES 24
CHAPTER III THE CASE OF DARFUR 26
CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 26
THE ETHNIC COMPOSTION OF DARFUR 27
THE ECOLOGY OF DARFUR 28
THE HISTORY OF CONFLICT 29 THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE OF DARFUR 31 LAND ISSUES 31
RESOURCE WARS 33
CLIMATE CHANGE IN DARFUR THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE CONFLICT 34
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE 38
GREEN GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL 38
ECOLOGICAL MODERNISATION 39
CIVIC ENVIRONMENTALISM 40 RADICAL RESISTANCE 40
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN DARFUR 41
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS 43
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) 43 THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) 44
THE ldquoJANJAWEEDrdquo MILITIA GROUP 45
ARAB AND NON-ARAB TRIBES 46
THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) 46
THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) 47
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA 48
TERRORISM 48
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 50
CONCLUSION 53
BIBLOGRAPHY 55
APPENDICES 62
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
APPENDIX TITLE PAGE
1 THE DARFUR REGION 62
2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR 63
3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 64
4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN 65
5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR 66
6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR 67
7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 200768
INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels
Not only have former sceptics such as George W Bush recognised the problem but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of bdquohigh
politics‟ namely security politics The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere Or has it In the scientific community a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change2 But there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled And as such all that remains now is further perfection of
1 See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 2 The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place 3 See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (Geneva Switzerland
2001) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank my supervisor Dr Gail TC Rigobert of the Institute of International
Relations at the University of the West Indies my sister Gail Marlene Baptiste as well as my
friends for all their help with my Master‟s Thesis over the past year
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACThelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipv
INTRODUCTION 7
OBJECTIVES 9
DELIMITATIONS 10
METHODOLOGY 11
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW 14
CHAPTER IITHE CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY CONNECTION 20
THE DRIVE FOR RESOURCES ENERGY SECURITYhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip21
FOOD SECURITY 23
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES 24
CHAPTER III THE CASE OF DARFUR 26
CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 26
THE ETHNIC COMPOSTION OF DARFUR 27
THE ECOLOGY OF DARFUR 28
THE HISTORY OF CONFLICT 29 THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE OF DARFUR 31 LAND ISSUES 31
RESOURCE WARS 33
CLIMATE CHANGE IN DARFUR THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE CONFLICT 34
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE 38
GREEN GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL 38
ECOLOGICAL MODERNISATION 39
CIVIC ENVIRONMENTALISM 40 RADICAL RESISTANCE 40
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN DARFUR 41
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS 43
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) 43 THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) 44
THE ldquoJANJAWEEDrdquo MILITIA GROUP 45
ARAB AND NON-ARAB TRIBES 46
THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) 46
THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) 47
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA 48
TERRORISM 48
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 50
CONCLUSION 53
BIBLOGRAPHY 55
APPENDICES 62
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
APPENDIX TITLE PAGE
1 THE DARFUR REGION 62
2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR 63
3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 64
4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN 65
5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR 66
6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR 67
7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 200768
INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels
Not only have former sceptics such as George W Bush recognised the problem but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of bdquohigh
politics‟ namely security politics The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere Or has it In the scientific community a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change2 But there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled And as such all that remains now is further perfection of
1 See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 2 The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place 3 See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (Geneva Switzerland
2001) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACThelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipiv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONShelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipv
INTRODUCTION 7
OBJECTIVES 9
DELIMITATIONS 10
METHODOLOGY 11
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW 14
CHAPTER IITHE CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY CONNECTION 20
THE DRIVE FOR RESOURCES ENERGY SECURITYhelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellip21
FOOD SECURITY 23
ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES 24
CHAPTER III THE CASE OF DARFUR 26
CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA 26
THE ETHNIC COMPOSTION OF DARFUR 27
THE ECOLOGY OF DARFUR 28
THE HISTORY OF CONFLICT 29 THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE OF DARFUR 31 LAND ISSUES 31
RESOURCE WARS 33
CLIMATE CHANGE IN DARFUR THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE CONFLICT 34
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE 38
GREEN GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL 38
ECOLOGICAL MODERNISATION 39
CIVIC ENVIRONMENTALISM 40 RADICAL RESISTANCE 40
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN DARFUR 41
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS 43
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) 43 THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) 44
THE ldquoJANJAWEEDrdquo MILITIA GROUP 45
ARAB AND NON-ARAB TRIBES 46
THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) 46
THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) 47
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA 48
TERRORISM 48
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 50
CONCLUSION 53
BIBLOGRAPHY 55
APPENDICES 62
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
APPENDIX TITLE PAGE
1 THE DARFUR REGION 62
2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR 63
3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 64
4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN 65
5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR 66
6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR 67
7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 200768
INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels
Not only have former sceptics such as George W Bush recognised the problem but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of bdquohigh
politics‟ namely security politics The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere Or has it In the scientific community a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change2 But there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled And as such all that remains now is further perfection of
1 See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 2 The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place 3 See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (Geneva Switzerland
2001) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS 43
INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS REFUGEES AND MIGRANTS 43
THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) 43 THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) 44
THE ldquoJANJAWEEDrdquo MILITIA GROUP 45
ARAB AND NON-ARAB TRIBES 46
THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) 46
THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) 47
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA 48
TERRORISM 48
THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS 50
CONCLUSION 53
BIBLOGRAPHY 55
APPENDICES 62
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
APPENDIX TITLE PAGE
1 THE DARFUR REGION 62
2 ETHNICITY IN DARFUR 63
3 CONFLICTS IN SUDAN 1957-2006 64
4 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUDAN 65
5 DISPLACED PERSONS CAMPS IN DARFUR 66
6 MIGRATION ROUTES USED IN DARFUR 67
7 MAP OF WORST TERRORIST ATTACKS 1921-OCTOBER 200768
INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels
Not only have former sceptics such as George W Bush recognised the problem but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of bdquohigh
politics‟ namely security politics The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere Or has it In the scientific community a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change2 But there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled And as such all that remains now is further perfection of
1 See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 2 The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place 3 See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (Geneva Switzerland
2001) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
INTRODUCTION
Of all the issues currently occupying the global political agenda climate change is one of those
areas which require no introductions The year 2007 was the year when climate change was
catapulted to the top of the agenda of mainstream politics on both the national and global levels
Not only have former sceptics such as George W Bush recognised the problem but the issue
has been debated in the Security Council of the United Nations (UNSC)1 as well as in the smaller
circle of the G8
As climate change moved into the mainstream political agenda and into the top level of
government and global governance the issue has rubbed off on one of the trademarks of bdquohigh
politics‟ namely security politics The connection between climate change and security seemed
to have established itself in the political sphere Or has it In the scientific community a
significant degree of certainty has been achieved in the research on climate change2 But there
still remains some level of uncertainty as to the effects of climate change on security
Looking at the extensive evidence3 available one may indeed agree with the opening sentence of
this thesis that climate change needs no introduction and also that maybe previous gaps in our
knowledge about it have been filled And as such all that remains now is further perfection of
1 See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace and
security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 2 The latest reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have now reached a
state of unprecedented accuracy and certainty in their conclusions that climate change is taking place 3 See for example Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (Geneva Switzerland
2001) International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers 2007
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
knowledge and the necessary political action to be carried out This thesis however argues the
contrary
Despite the certainty regarding those aspects of climate change studied by the physical and
natural sciences such as geography and meteorology a great degree of uncertainty still remains
among those aspects of climate change best looked at through the social sciences including areas
of international relations and political science The need for clarity and reduced uncertainty is
particularly important in the interface between climate change and security Such lack of clarity
is unsettling not only because of the nature of both issues and of their possible interconnections
but also because of the dynamic nature of international security
The Darfur Region of Sudan has long been plagued by low-intensity conflicts over land water
and grazing rights4 However the crisis which broke out in 2003 was unlike anything seen in the
region More than 200000 persons were killed whilst over two million were forced to flee to the
safety of refugee camps to escape the violence5 What could have caused violence in this region
to erupt to the point that persons literally had to flee for their lives Some have argued that the
crisis is really ethnically and resource based and by extension an intensification of past conflicts
in the region6 However given the increased droughts coupled with declining rainfall and
increasing desertification being experienced by this region the view has been put forth that
climate change in and of itself is the deepseated factor behind this crisis In the words of
influential author Jeffery Sachs ldquoTwo things have happened First the population has doubled in
4 UNEP ldquoSudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessmentrdquo United Nations Environment Programme June 2007
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf 9 5 Kevane Michael and Leslie Gray 2007 The Darfur Conflict is Not a Climate Crisis The University of Santa
Clara 6 Ibid p 6
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
the last generation and the second the rainfall has gone down sharply These are very hungry
crowded people and now they are killing each otherhellipDarfur at its core is a conflict of
insufficient rainfallrdquo7 Similar views have been expressed by former vice president of the United
States Al Gore UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and popular commentator for the Atlantic
monthly Stephen Farris This begs the question has Climate Change evolved to the point that it
can actually modify statecentric notions of security This is a question that needs to be answered
This thesis therefore will attempt to (by utilizing the case of Darfur) discuss the security
implications of climate change to determine whether it is reshaping the security agenda It will
also look at the current state of research so as to create a pathway for probable consequences It
will particularly look at the political dynamics of security as it relates to climate change More
specifically this thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
Will global security politics be affected by climate change
Will the politics in regions be impacted on by climate change
Will the politics within states both internally and externally be impacted on by climate
change
Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to explore the relationship between climate change and
security It will endeavour to (via a literature review) discuss the theoretical linkages between
climate change and security Secondly the thesis will bring forth the issues stemming from
climate change including energy security food security and environmental refugees to determine
7 httpwwwcarnegiecouncilorgviewMediaphpprmTemplateID9prmID5132
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
how climate change has through these issues created an environment of insecurity The thesis
will then analyze the crisis in Darfur to determine what role climate change plays in the
continuing conflict in this region It will then turn to the issue of Climate Governance to
determine the extent that it has been effective in Darfur and what role stakeholders at various
levels can play in the development of sustainability incentives to climate change and the extent
to which this can reduce the incidence of conflict in the region Additionally in a further attempt
to determine the position of climate change on the global security agenda the thesis would look
at the issues of terrorism and the current global economic and financial crisis to determine the
extent to which these are impacting on the agenda of climate change
Delimitations
For the purposes of this thesis the concept of security utilized would represent the traditional
military concerns surrounding realism Taking this approach to security may seem peculiar given
that calls have been made since the 1990s to widen the concept specifically with regard to
environmental factors8 However the reason for this approach is to present a concentrated
analysis of the effects of climate change on international security9 International security is in
many ways associated with sectors of finance and economy to issues of energy and food security
However for the purposes of this thesis it assumes that it is a distinct and separate phenomenon
as postulated by the realist school Additionally there have been numerous reports on the effects
of climate change on the security of ecosystems10
however not many have exclusively dealt with
8 See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 9Vayrynen Raimo 1998 Environmental Security and Conflicts Concepts and Policies International Studies 13
10 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change
Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
its possible effects on international security As such as a starting point of this thesis security
would be treated as distinct and separate from ecology economy and the like
Additionally it should be noted that this thesis does not deal with climate change per se but
rather with is implications for international politics International security It does not bring
forward any new findings on global warming and climate change Also given that this thesis has
been written from the viewpoint of political science and international relations and not say
meteorology it will not discuss the methods of the IPCC nor will it direct criticism towards the
findings compiled by the panel The rapid growth in the body of available knowledge makes
writing about climate change more difficult than previous years In fact it is more like analysing
a constantly evolving entity For the scientific community this would probably be a good thing
since the available knowledge is constantly growing However from the perspective of the
individual researcher it is rather problematic since it is particularly impossible to keep up with
the existing state of research Overall this thesis really seeks to understand the structural
conditions that would enable or even determine a certain scope of possible actions to the problem
of climate change and by extension security
Methodology
For this thesis I started off with a literature review which looks at the specific issues of climate
change and security and how they have evolved over time The literature then extends to look at
some of the available work on climate change and security to determine the theoretical linkages
between to two phenomena Extensive research has been done to find major academics in this
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
field so as integrate their works into the discussion on the relationship between climate change
and security
The thesis will then turn to a discussion of dynamics of climate change so as to determine some
of the ways in which climate change and security combine Here issues including but not limited
to energy security and food security will discussed
The thesis then goes on to look at the case of Darfur The case study is an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the crisis Here land tenure issues Resource wars and Climate
Change will be discussed Overall the thesis will attempt to answer the following questions
What role does the region‟s history play in the current conflict Who are the main
actorsplayers What role does climate change play in the current conflict Is it an inherent
scarcity of resources (land energy) driven by climate change which is fuelling this conflict
The foremost aim of it is to determine the main reasons for the crisis and contextualize climate
change‟s role in the conflict Research mainly from secondary sources will be analyzed and
presented so as to answer my research question
The thesis will then look at the issue of climate governance first at the global level then at the
level of the Darfur Region It will try to determine how major stakeholders (governments NGOs
International Institutions Grassroots organizations) can cooperate to come up with concrete
solutions to the problems being experienced in the region
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Finally it will look at climate change in relation to the critical issues of Terrorism and the
current global financial and economic crisis to determine whether climate change is reshaping
the global security agenda or being dwarfed by these bdquomore‟ critical issues
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CHAPTER I LITERATURE REVIEW
Is climate change reshaping the global security agenda This question has gone beyond mere
academic interest to be a subject of debate in policy circles11
However before discussing the
question at hand one may want to define what climate change is The UNFCCC defines climate
change as ldquoa change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periodsrdquo12
However many argue that this definition
of so called bdquoclimate change‟ is misleading for it assumes that the effects of climate change
would be the same across regions13
Additionally changes in climate are not gradual and
predictable but more uneven and abrupt As such the postulation that it can be compared over
time is also misleading14
Despite these arguments surrounding the definition of climate change
the phenomenon itself is taking place15
More importantly is its implications for International
security
The Question of climate change impacting on security is not a new one One of the earliest
contributors to the debate was Professor Richard Falk who writing in the 1970s sort to determine
11
At the April 2007 Security Council debate the representative from Namibia put forth the view that greenhouse gas
emissions can be likened to ldquolow intensity biological or chemical warfarerdquo See UNSCDPI UN Security Council
5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 httpwwwunorgNewsPress docs2007sc9000dochtm ( accessed May 12 2009) 12
ldquoclimate changerdquo according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 31ILM
849 [Framework Convention] Article 2 is ldquoa change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periodsrdquo 13
K Campbell et al The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global
Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies 2007 p 8 14
Ibid 15
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
the connection between security and impending climate change16
Falk‟s main argument was
that the faster the rate of climate change the less time there will be to adapt As such without the
proper institutional capacity to adapt to climate change the risk of violence increases especially
in weak states
Professor Thomas F Homer-Dixon another major contributor to the debate on climate change
and security in two articles in International Security in 1991 and 1994 looks at the various
possibilities via which widespread climate change could lead to international and intra-national
conflict and argued that global warming at least in the next few decades would not have a major
independent impact on international security issues but would rather cause conflict when in
conjunction with weak political institutions illegitimate or contested governments and ethnic
group ties17
However by 2007 Homer-Dixon was singing a different tune In an article published
in the New York Times he was quoted as saying ldquoClimate stress may well represent a challenge
to international security just as dangerousndashand more intractable ndashthan the arms race between the
United States and the Soviet Union during the cold warrdquo 18
Clearly the way in which security is viewed matters because it determines to a large extent how
the security impacts of climate change are to be understood and as such whether or not climate
change is changing its agenda The traditional view of security draws from what is generally
referred to as the Realist school of international relations whereby states seek to maximize their
16
Falk Richard 1971 The Endangered Planet Prospects and Proposals for Human Survival New York Random
House 17
See Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1991 On the Threshold Environmental Changes as a Cause of Acute Conflict
International Security 16 Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict
Evidence from Cases International Security 19 18
Homer Dixon Thomas F 2007 Terror in the Weather Forecast The New York Times April 24
httpwwwnytimescom20070424opinion24homerdixonhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=thomas20homer20dixon2
0on20climate20change20an20secrityampst=cse (accessed November 1 2008)
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
power and advance their self-interest (often at the expense of others) In extreme circumstances
this is pursued by military power Here the agenda is primarily a matter of deterring and if
necessary defending against foreign coercion attack and invasion Additionally the
responsibility for managing security lies unambiguously with the state Ultimate security
therefore is the ldquoabsence of a military threat or with the protection of the nation from external
overthrow or attackrdquo (Baldwin 1995) Overall this conception of security dominated policy
making throughout the cold war particularly in North America and Europe19
The end of the Cold War saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union Following this was a series
of civil war outbreaks in many former communist and post-colonial states In the end new
questions began to surface as to the causes of these wars What were the root causes of these
(neo) violent conflicts The realist paradigm came under severe crticism because of its inability
to explain these conflicts At various times critics assailed the prevailing orthodoxy as being
one-dimensional and short-sighted (Brown 1977)
Ultimately scholars sort to redefine security to reflect the changing global paradigm Many of
the diverse contributions to this debate on the so-called bdquonew thinking of security‟ can be
classified along one of two dimensions The first is associated with authors such as Myron
Weiner and Richard Ullman whose many aims were to broaden the decidedly narrow bdquoorthodox‟
definition of security to encompass a wider range of potential bdquothreats‟ ranging from economic
19
The Realist dominance of security thinking was reflected in the creation of institutions and the allocation of
resources particularly in the US The US National Security Council dealt largely with military issues and US
development assistance was allocated largely with an eye for geopolitical considerations
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
and environmental issues to human rights and migration20
This move has been accompanied by
attempts to deepen the agenda beyond its state-centric focus by moving either down to the level
of individual or human security or up to the level of international or global security
More importantly The Post-Cold War era saw the emergence of scholars particularly in the area
of climate change studies All of whom sort to determine the linkages between the climate
change and the outbreaks of violent conflict and their impact on security As a result the need
emerged to understand how the environment played a role in these internal conflicts (Clover
2005 p 107) However some scholars have argued that the enviromental security field rather
than changing the security paradigm to encompass issues of energy (in) security food (in)
security and the like has really become more nationalized and militarized than ever before
signaling a return of realist agendas to the security debate21
Despite these criticisms numerous international actors recognized the threat posed by the new
phenomena of climate change including individual states and organizations such as the UN22
Indeed there was no doubt that climate change will have significant ldquoadverse effectsrdquo23
In
addition to its resulting ldquoenvironmental and development challengesrdquo the phenomenon also
20
See Weiner Myron 1992 Security Stability and International Migration International Security Ullman
Richard 1983 Redefining Security International Security 21
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13(1) p 14 22
For example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat
posed to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 23
As defined in the Framework Convention ldquoadverse effects of climate changerdquo means changes in the physical
environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition
resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on
human health and welfare
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
posed a clear long-term threat to global security Although the specific manner in which this
threat will manifest itself is not yet clear24
However the non-traditional security concern of climate change came under fierce criticisms
from its traditional counterparts According to Mearsheimer Non-traditional security threats such
as climate change ldquochallengerdquo the foundations of Realism because they are different from the
ldquotraditional kind of military threats realist worry aboutrdquo25
Another realist Stephen Walt argued
that the inclusion of non-traditional threats into the security discipline threatens ldquoto destroy its
intellectual coherence and make it more difficult to devise solutions to any of these problemsrdquo26
In an essay on time and the social sciences Barbara Adam comments that ldquocause is not
succeeded by a consequence in a simple immediate linear way The issue of global warming in
other words is replete with uncertainties and the prospect of an indeterminate and
indeterminable futurerdquo27
Similarly Marc A Levy (1995) argued against expanding the
traditional definition of security maintaining that climate change is best addressed in the
environmental realm28
These observationscriticisms all point to the issue of securing ldquoevidencerdquo that the threat of
climate change is in fact creating problems for the agenda of International security As such this
thesis would attempt to determine the extent to which climate change is changing statecentric
24
The 2005 Human Security and Climate Change workshop itself is premised on the understanding that the ldquocasual
chain from climate change to significant impacts on human security is likely to be long complex and full of
uncertaintiesrdquo httpwwwcicerouionohumsechuman_securityhtml 25
Mearsheimer John J 2001 The Tragedy of Power Politics New York WWNorton 26
Walt Stephen M 1992 Revolution and War World Politics no44 pp 275-316 27
Adam B 1995 Time watch The Social Analysis of Time Cambridge amp Malden MA Polity Press 28
Levy Marc A 1995 Is the Environment a National Security Issue International Security p 20
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
notions of security which ultimately means determining the extent to which it is reshaping the
global security agenda
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CHAPTER II MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND
SECURITY
The issue of climate has received so much attention in the past decade that the questions are now
being asked about its implications for national security The release of the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report solidified the claim that ldquowarming of the climate systems is unequivocal as
is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea levelrdquo29
Additionally
ldquoObservational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems
are being affected by regional climate changes particularly temperature increasesrdquo30
Also
another influential report the Stern Review argues that ldquothe body of evidence and the growing
quantitiative assessment of risks are now sufficient to give clear and strong guidance to
economists and policy-makers in shaping a responserdquo31
More importantly is the fact that both these reports agree that developing countries would be the
hardest hit by changing climate The Stern review in particular states ldquoClimate-related shocks
have sparked violent conflict in the past and conflict is a serious risk in areas such as West
Africa the Nile basin and Central Asiardquo32
Clearly there is a need to assess the linkages between
climate change security and conflict
29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 2
httpwwwipccchpdfassessmentreportar4syrar4_syr_spmpdf 30
Ibid 31
The Stern Review 2007 p 3 32
Ibid p viii
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
It is important in the discourse of climate change and security to analyse different levels of
analysis so as to gain a better understanding of the social political and economic effects of
climate change This would be particularly significant in the development of measures to
mitigate and adapt to changing climates
Author Jon Barnett explores the linkages between climate change and security at the political
level He argues that conflicts resulting from climate change are most likely to occur interstate
rather than between states33
He says quote ldquoConflicts in which environmental change appears to
be a contributing factor tend to be within rather that than between states and it is at this sub-level
that a climate change-conflict research agenda would most profitably focusrdquo34
At present a lot of
the literature on the linkages between climate change security and conflict is focused on analysis
at state level35
For Barnett climate change should not be taken to represent the military agendas
of states but rather the focus should be on the creation of long term strategies to mitigate and
adapt to the problem itself36
The Drive for Resources Energy Security
As it relates to energy security climate change is expected to affect this significantly ldquoThe
Impact of future changes of climate will be felt primarily by resource-dependent communities
through a multitude of primary and secondary effects cascading through natural and social
systemsrdquo37
33
Barnett Jon 2003 Security and Climate Change Global Environmental Change 13 (1) p 10 34
Ibid 35
Nordas and Gleditsch 2007 Climate Change and Security Political Geography p634 36
Barnett 2003 p 14 37
Adgar Nei W 2003 Social Capital Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change Economic
Geography p 387
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
With the end of the cold war theorists of many persuasions have sort to determine what the
driving force of the new international environment is Thomas L Friedman in his book The
Lexus and the Olive Tree spoke about ldquoThe One big thingrdquo38
But what is this one big thing
Samuel P Huntingdon in his work on the clash of civilizations speaks about the security policies
of states being driven by religious or ldquocivilizationalrdquo basis He argues that ldquoconflict between
civilizationsrdquo is what will dominate conflict in the modern world39
This was evident in the
recent fighting in Kosovo and Bosnia40
However are these ldquocivilizationalrdquo conflicts the
centrereason for many conflicts Or is conflict being propelled solely by the new phenomenon
of climate change Additionally is climate change the driver of or the actual cause of conflict
within and between nations
Michael T Klare in his work on Resource Wars opens up lines of enquiry which reveals the
indirect impact of Climate change on international security In his analysis Klare shows how
conflict over resources can lead to insecurity in the 21st century Where realists such as
Mearsheimer make bold declarations justified by the so-called authority of realism Klare in his
analysis of conflicts ranging from energy conflict in the Caspian Sea Basin to Water Conflict in
the Nile Basin detail how consumption in the ldquotame zones of global politicsrdquo can not only create
resource wars in the ldquowild zonesrdquo but lead to increasing insecurity in these regions Klare‟s
analysis makes the connection between consumption climate change and resource wars thereby
blurring the lines between the traditional security agenda of realism and the non-traditional
security issue of climate change
38
Friedman Thomas L 1999 The Lexus and the Olive Tree New York Farrar Straus p xvii 39
Huntington Samuel P 1999 The Clash of Civilizations Foreign Affairs p 22 40
httplibrarythinkquestorg28172skosovowhtm
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
As such through Klare‟s analysis one can argue that increasing consumption of energy resources
(oil natural gas) by developed economies not only reduce the amount of resources available to
poor countries (who are more populated) but through their increased usage exacerbate the
problem of climate change whose effects are mostly felt in developing regions These effects
(declining rainfall rising sea levels) then create problems of insecurity and conflict
Food Security
As it relates to food security41
Agriculture is particularly important This is because it not only
provides food for persons but more importantly it‟s a main source of livelihood In Sub-Sahara
Africa Agriculture production accounts for two-thirds of population livelihoods42
As such if
climate change were to adversely affect agriculture production in this region a number of
persons would become vulnerable to food insecurity
According to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report developing countries particularly those in Africa
and Latin America are expected to be the most severely affected by crop yield reductions due to
declines in the availability of water as well as an increasing number of insect pests43
More
specifically in the case of Africa by 2020 countries in this region will see yields from rain-fed
agriculture decline by more than 5044
For Africa access to food would be severely
41
For the purposes of this thesis food security will be defined according to the definition adopted by the World food
Summit (WFS) in 1996 which says ldquofood security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic
access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active healthy
liferdquo 42
Killman Wulf 2008 Climate Change and Food Security Working Paper Rome Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) p 9 43
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change Synthesis
Report Summary for Policymakers p 50 44
Ibid p 50
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
compromised exacerbating the problem of food insecurity and by extension the high level of
malnutrition which already exists in the region
A point of contention however is the fact that although climate change policies geared towards
renewable energy (particularly biofuels) improve energy security and reduce greenhouse
emissions bioenergy plantations can compete with food production thereby perpetuating the
problem of food insecurity45
As such there is a need for comprehensible synergies and tradeoffs
in the development of policies geared towards climate change adaptation and mitigation
Environmental Refugees
Is there a link between climate change and the movement of Internationally Displaced Persons
(IDPs) and Refugees Norman Myers a major contributor to this debate argues that the number
of persons at risk due to bdquoclimate dislocation‟ is roughly 212 million46
However Myers came
under severe criticism Richard Black in particular argues that the figures put forth by Myers
are exaggerated since the amount of migration may actually decline during times of drought
Black‟s main argument is that migrants require financial resources which poor persons do not
possess therefore ldquoan economic downturn reduces the ability of families to make such an
investmentrdquo47
45
Ibid p 61 46
See Myers Norman 2001 47
Black R 2001 Environmental Refugees myth or reality UNHCR Working Paper no 34 New Issues in Refugee
Research p 7
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Another interesting argument is the view that environmental refugees may actually contribute to
the incidence of conflict in regions Here it is thought that climate change through its impacts (in
this case the creation of environmental refugees) may impact on international security Is this
actually taking place According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there is bdquosubstantial evidence to
support the hypothesis that environmental scarcity causes large population movement(s) which
in turn cause group identity conflictsrdquo48
Overall it is particularly difficult to make the distinction between the actual act of fleeing from
climate change and the deliberate decision to migrate as a basis of adapting to changing
circumstances resulting from climate change49
However what‟s important is the extent to
which climate change through this new type of refugee flow impacts on security within states
48
Homer-Dixon Thomas F 1994 Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from Cases
International Security p 19 49
United Nations Commission on Human Rights (UNHCR) The State of the Worldrsquos Refugees Oxford Oxford
University Press p 28
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CHAPTER III The CASE OF DARFUR
Climate change in Africa
The people of sub-Saharan Africa are one the most vulnerable to changing global climates This
is largely because of their weak environments weak adaptation strategies and the high levels of
poverty50
Research has shown that temperatures throughout Africa are increasing significantly
coupled with this is the increasing occurrence of drought This has radically reduced the
agriculture growing season in the region Additionally because of the high dependence on natural
capital climate change can have damaging effects on the livelihoods of many people in the
region more so because of the level of poverty which characterises the population ldquoThe low
adaptive capacity of Africa is due in large part to the extreme poverty of many Africans frequent
natural disasters such as droughts and floods agriculture that is heavily dependant on rainfalls as
well as a range of micro and macro structural problemsrdquo51
These countries with their already
high levels of conflict most times do not possess the institutional capacity or the amount of
resources necessary to assist there populations in times of drought
More critical is the prediction that increased climate change will bring with it more health
problems to the region This will exacerbate the problems of malnutrition and diseases steming
from diarrhorea52
It has also been argued that areas such as Rwanda Ethiopia and Brundi will
become more capable of transmitting malaria by 208053
50
See Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 448 51
Ibid p 454 52
Parry et al Climate Change 2007 pp 9-10 53
Boko et al 2007 Africa Climate Change 2007 Impacts adaptation and vulnerability p 446
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Moreover ldquocountries dependant on agricultural commodities are at risk independent of their
endowments of oil and diamondsrdquo54
States including Nigeria Sudan and Chad provide very few
incentives for the creation of institutions to aid in the development of the Agricultural sector in
their coutries Furthermore because of their dependence on agriculture and low development
capabilities their opportunities for diversification is limited thereby reducing their ability to
contain conflict and by extension mitigate against climate change55
In countries highly dependant on rainfall agriculture a study by Hendrix and Glasner (2007)
argues that declining rainfall will have detrimental effects on their economies ldquoOur analysis
suggests that breaking this dependence on rain-fed agriculture will have positive effects for
mitigating conflictrdquo56
Moreover with the decline in rainfall crops begin to stagnate This
exacerbates problems of water and food insecurity within already weak states and in the end
violent conflict will ensue as in the case of Darfur
The Ethnic Composition of Darfur
The Darfur region57
is located west of Sudan to the southwest is the Central African Republic
to the south is the Bahr al-Ghazal region of Sudan and to the east is the Kordofan and Northern
regions According to Baballa Haroun Nor Adam Darfur has historically been considered a
54
Humphrey M 2005 Natural Resources Conflict and Conflict Resolution Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (4)
p 534 55
ldquoIn engaging in conflict prevention along side initiatives to clean up particular commodity trades there is a need
to pursue strategies of diversification more aggressively directed at bringing countries out of dependence on
primary commoditiesrdquo Ibid p 534 56
Hendrix C and S Glasner 2007 Trends and Triggers Climate Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-
Saharan Africa Political Geography p 711 57
See Appendix 1
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
strategic location ldquobeing the trade route linking the ancient Kanem Borno kingdoms with central
and Nilotic Sudan and a meeting point for caravans plying that route across Africardquo58
The name Darfur meaning ldquoLand of the Furrdquo holds the largest single tribe of farmers in Africa59
Darfur can be broken up into three ethnic zones the northern zone includes Arab and non-Arab
people primarily camel nomads60
The central zone is mainly inhabited by non-Arab (African)
sedentary farmers such as Fur and Massalit and in the south live Arab speaking cattle nomads
called the Baggara61
According to RS O‟ Fahey (2004) ldquoall are Muslimrdquo but interestingly ldquono
part of Darfur was ever ethnically homogenousrdquo62
This is mainly because groups are defined
primarily along the lines of lifestyle rather than by physical appearance63
The Ecology of Darfur
The country of Darfur has primarily six ecological zones each with varying work livestock and
farming systems64
Rainfall is the main driver of agriculture and pastoral in the region However
rainfall in the region has declined significantly since the 1980s This has put enormous stress on
the ecology of the region65
58
Adam B 1999 Ethnic Composition Economic Pattern and Armed Conflicts in Darfur Sudanese Human
Rights Quarterly 9-10 59
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 60
Referred to as Zaghawa 61
See Appendix 2 62
For example once a successful Fur farmer had a certain number of cattle he would bdquobecome‟ Baggara and in a
few generations his descendants would have authentic Arab genealogy 63
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 64
Ahmed Abdalla Environmental Degradation and conflict in Darfur Experiences and Development Options p
87 65
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Prior to the crisis in 2003 Darfur experienced prolonged conflicts over land water and grazing
rights However these were not as detrimental as the crisis which started in 2003 As the crisis
subsided one would have hoped that the country would have begun the process of restoration
however this was not the case On the contrary militia sponsored by the Government of Sudan
used what they termed ldquoscorched earthrdquo66
tactics to intentionally displace millions of persons in
the region67
This was the start to a downward spiral of events which not only destroyed the
landscape of that region but exacerbated the problem of (in) security in the region
In terms of the number of persons internally displaced Sudan is first in the world with roughly
five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or international refugees68
Specifically in
Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some 24million people have been displaced
since 200369
The History of Conflict A Background to the Crisis in Darfur
Ever since Sudan gained its independence in 1956 from the United Kingdom the country has
been dominated by Military regimes mostly favouring Islamic-oriented governments70
Since the
1980s the region has been fraught with internal conflicts71
A military coup staged by the
National Islamic Front (NIF) saw that party make a bid for power in 198972
With the increasing
bdquoarabization‟ of policies in the region there erupted a brutal 20 year civil war between the Arab-
66
This term is derived from the Chinese phrase ldquoJiaoturdquo It is a tactic used by a military to destroy crops as a way to
deny the so-called enemy food The destruction is not limited to food resources it can include shelter industrial
resources or communication to name a few See httpwwwfirstworldwarcomatoz scorchedearthhtm 67
See UNEP 2007 p 75 68
Ibid p 9 69
Ibid 70
Ibid 71
See Appendix 3 72
The party‟s name was later changed to the National Congress Party (NCP) Ibid
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Muslim North and the non-Arab African south73
These two factions were able to sign a peace
treaty in 2005 However violence in another part of the region (Darfur) was reaching crisis
proportions after years of low-intensity conflict
2003 saw the start of conflict which has spiralled downward ever since It started with an attack
on an airport located in the capital of North Darfur by the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) this
was in direct opposition to the ruling party of the National Congress People Lead by Minni
Minawi the SLA argued that their continued exclusion from the central government led them to
commit the act74
The Government however responded by enlisting the help of the Janjaweed75
to quell the rebellion Since the start of this conflict a peace agreement has been signed between
the central government and the SLA however violence in Darfur has continued to escalate at an
alarming rate 76
The need to determine the real cause of the conflict is clear if the region is to
mitigate the situation
The Political Structure of Darfur
The country of Sudan is broken up into 25 states (with Darfur making up 3 of these states)
However power is concentrated in the hands of the ldquoauthoritarianrdquo77
central government78
It has
been argued that after end of the military coup in 1989 the regime led by current President Omar
73
Referred to as the Sudanese People‟s Liberation MovementArmy (SPLMA) 74
The main reasons sited for war by the SLA includes the continuous marginalization from the central government
decision-making process underdevelopment the lack of political power land grabs and the absence of proper water
infrastructure to name a few See httpnewsbbccouk2hiafrica3496731stm 75
The Black nomadic Arab speaking population 76
Of note is the fact that this so-called peace agreement included only one faction of the rebel and it failed to include
all other factionsCrisis Group African Report 2007 Darfur Revitalizing the Peace Process 30 April p 3 77
The CIA Factbook describes the government of Darfur as being authoritarian
httpswwwciagovlibrarypublicationsthe-world-factbookprintsuhtml 78
Ibid
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
al-Bashir79
encouraged policies leaning towards Islamic Arab-centric tendencies which in and of
itself created the ethnic dimension to the conflict currently plaguing the Darfur region80
Regionally the centralization of decision-making processes severely limited the capacity of the
local government Historically The Native Administration was the one responsible for the affairs
of the different regions However the 1980s saw sweeping administrative changes with the
governance of regions being placed in the hands of the central government These changes also
led to the breaking up of Darfur into three states This not only signalled the demise of Native
Administration in this region but also given the policy-orientation of the central government it
saw divisions between agriculturalist and pastoralists deepen severely81
Land Issues
ldquo Arab groups involved in contemporary militia activities including land grabbing are what we
might call Abbala remnants with weak historic claims to tribally defined territories and
traditions of migration82
and settlement to the east and southrdquo83
The outbreak of the Darfur crisis
in 2003 has seen the incidience of land grabbing among African tribes increase significantly
This does not mean that the conflict resulting from land is a new occurrence in fact this has been
an issue of contention for years
79
Leader of the National Congress Party 80
O‟Fahey RS 2004 West Sudan A Complex Reality with a Long History International Herald Tribune May 2
p 27 81
Who are the Darfurians Arab and African Identities Violence and External Engagement African Affairs p 11-
12 82
See Appendix 6 83
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
In Sudan the central government controls land with roughly 25 separate acts of legislation84
These acts give the state unequivocal power over land resouces in the region85
Additionally
through a registry process the government is able to control the rights of private individuals
thereby invalidating the traditional rules which governed land ownership Overall the central
government determines who owns land and what these lands would be utilized for86
More importantly because national law effectively trumps traditional law there is an inherent
contradicton between the land tenure laws which govern local traditions and the policies of the
state87
Additionally in 1971 the People‟s Local Government Act (the main regulator of
government policies in the region) was abolished this further fuelled the conflict between
supporters of governments land tenure system and those who supported the traditional system88
Most Importantly however is that the current conflict in Darfur has not only exacerbated the
conflict between the two land settlement systems but it has also severely crippled the traditional
local system‟s ability to manage land resources in the region
Resource Wars
Sudan falls behind Nigeria and Angola as the third largest producer of oil in the Sub-Saharan
Desert Petroleum exploration in Sudan was started in the mid 1970s however the country was
84
Some of these acts include The Civil Transaction act (1984) The Regional Government Act (1985) and The
Petroleum Resources Act (1972) to name a few 85
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 143 JSTOR 86
Ibid p 148 87
Ibid p 146 88
De Waal A 2006 The Question of Land All Africa July 16 httpallafricacomstories200607140762html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
only able to export this commodity in 199989
This can probably be explained by the conflict
which erupted in 1983 resulting from issues ranging from disputes over resource allocations to
the deliberate bdquoredistricting‟ of oil fields to serve political interests to the forced removal of non-
Arab Sudanese from their land without little or no compensation90
Steming from this conflict
was a civil war which lasted almost three decades and which only came to an end in 2005 with
the signing of The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)91
This peace agreement led to the
establishment of a commission to not only oversee the equal distribution of revenues from oil
exports but also to manage those contracts related to oil concessions92
However to date the
Government of South Sudan (where Darfur falls under) has received little if any monies from
this commission93
Most oil companies in Sudan are state owned this however does not signal the exclusion of other
states China in its continuous drive for resources has major oil interests in Sudan So to does
Malaysia and India However what distinguishes China from the rest is its influence with the
central Government of Sudan94
At present Sudan produces approximately 500000 barrels of oil per day The country‟s
production of oil has grown so significantly that it is expected that the oil industry will soon
rival agriculture for importance95
Despite this growth in production revenues remain in the
central region of Khartoum effectively marginalising states such as Darfur Additionally instead
89
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 9
httppostconflictunepchpublicationsUNEP_Sudanpdf p 38 90
Shankleman Jill 2006 Oil Profits and Peace Washington DC US Institute of Peace Press p 122 91
Ibid p 120 92
Ibid p 127 93
Ibid p 128 94
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 95
UNEP 2007 p 38
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
of revenues being utilized to develop climate mitigating poverty reducing initiatives they are
instead utilized to fund weapons for campaigns in Darfur which further enhance the crisis in the
region and exacerbates the resource wars already plaguing the country of Sudan96
Climate Change in the Darfur The root cause of the conflict
Globally Climate Change particularly declining rainfall is quickly leading to declines in
agriculture and overall land failure A report done in 2007 cautions that ldquodesertification97
has
emerged as an environmental crisis of global proportions currently affecting an estimated 100-
200 million people and threatening the lives and livelihoods of a much larger numberrdquo (Adeel et
al 2007 p 2) More importantly is the fact that the phenomenon is more likely to take place in
developing countries where the majority of the global poor reside
The Continent of Africa although least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions is expected to
suffer the most detrimental effects of climate change due to its continued reliance on ldquoclimate
dependantrdquo sectors98
along with its history of political and social conflict (Brown and Crawford
2008 p 40) This begs the question although the incidence of climate change is now
scientifically certain99
can it really act as a threat to security in this region
The question of whether climate change is the reason for the conflict in Darfur is just debatable
as say the relationship between climate change and the destruction of New Orleans by Hurricane
96
Goodman PS 2004 China Invests heavily in Sudan‟s Oil Washington Post 97
The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines desertification as ldquoland degradation in arid
semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors including climatic variations and human activitiesrdquo
Adeel et al 2007 p5 98
Such as rain fed agriculture 99
See UNEP 2007 p 9
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Katrina According to Peter Schwartz Co-author of a 2003 Pentagon report on climate change
and security ldquoNobody can say that Katrina was definitely caused by climate changerdquo despite this
ldquowe can say that climate change means more Katrinas For any single storm as with any single
drought it‟s difficult to say But we can say we‟ll get more big storms and more severe
droughtsrdquo100
In 2007 a group of retired US generals released a report arguing that the effects of
climate change are now so great that it ldquoacts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the
most volatile regions of the worldrdquo101
This begs the question is Climate Change the major
contributing factor to the current crisis in Darfur Or is it the main driver of already existing
conflicts in the region
The argument that climate change is the major contributor to the crisis of Darfur has recently
gained a lot of international momentum According to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in an
editorial in the Washington Post ldquoWe discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political short-
handndashan ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers look to its roots
though and you discover a more complex dynamic Amid the social and political causes The
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis arising in part from climate changerdquo102
The mid 1980s was the first time the region of Darfur was faced with the problem of climate
change103
Between the years 1984-1985 the region faced its first real drought which severely
affected pastoral farmers who saw the majority of their animals perish with the decline in
100
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 101
GR Sullivan et al 2007 National Security and the Threat of Climate Change Virginia The CNA Corporation
p 6 102
Ki-moon Ban 2007 A Climate Culprit in Darfur Washington Post June 16
httpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20070615AR2007061501857html 103
See Appendix 4
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
rainfall104
The Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that rainfall
will continue to decline in this region Whilst a report by the UNEP in 2007 argues that incidence
of desertification in Sudan particularly Darfur is expected to increase given the movement of
the desert some 50-200km southwards105
The incidence of drought coupled with increasing desertification in Darfur initiated some of the
first sets of migration directly related to cimate change Pastoralists in the search for more fertile
land migrated to the central and southern regions of Darfur As such climate change indirectly
led to the disintegrating of previous agreements between pastoralists and agriculturalists fuelling
conflicts between the two groups
Countries across the world are already experiencing similar problems to Darfur Examples
include water shortages in the Middle East to Monsoon disruptions in South Asia106
Ultimately
the crisis in Darfur can be used as a blueprint to show the potential of climate change to create
political and social chaos
104
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan 105
UNEP 2007 p 9 106
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 8
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CHAPTER IV CLIMATE GOVERNANCE
For the region of Darfur recognising the problem of Climate change as one of the main
contributors to the conflict is only the first step in a series of actions to arrive at concrete
solutions to the problem It means that solutions to the conflict must go beyond the traditional
treaties between governments and rebels to include the all encompassing issue of Climate
Governance
Theoretically Climate Governance can be divided along three dimensions (Green
governmentality ecological modernisation and civic environmentalism) Green governmentality
is really a top-down approach to climate mitigation and adaptation implemented on a global
scale It is driven by science and involves a centralized multilateral negotiation order Ecological
modernization on the other hand is market-based in approach Its aim is to provide flexible and
cost effective solutions to the problem of climate change The Civic Environmentalism discourse
can be divided along streams to include radical and reform-oriented narratives Here only the
radical resistance arm will be discussed This discourse mainly challenges the dominance of the
two preceding discourses (Backstrand and Lovbrand 2007 p 124)
Green Governmentality Governance at the Global Level
Governmentality107
epitomizes a global form of power tied to the modern administrative state
mega-science and the business community It entails the adminstration of life itself including
individuals populations and the natural environment (Moss 1998 p 3) The green interpretation
107
Governmentality is a concept introduced by M Foucault in order to distinguish the particular mentalities or
rationalities of government and administration in early modern Europe
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
of governmentality extends this optimization of life to the entire planet and the very biosphere in
which people live (Dean 1999 p 99) Over the past few decades an increasing number of
specialists have been involved in the monitoring and management of nature According to Luke
1999 these ldquoeco manageralistrdquo practices classify and legitimize appropriate ways of dealing with
the environment and therefore enforce ldquothe right disposition of thingsrdquo between humans and
nature It has however been argued that green governmentality being a top-down discourse
effectively marginalizes alternative understandings of the natural world (Fogel 2003)
Ecological Modernization Governance at the Market Level
According to Hajer (1995) ecological modernization is based on the liberal view of
environmental governance which looks at environmental degradation as distinct and separate
from economic growth Here capitalism and industrialization is made more environmentally
friendly via green regulation investment and trade The ecological modernization approach to
climate governance can be seen clearly in the EU Emission Trading Scheme108
This scheme
presupposes that market forces will guide participants towards the cheapest emissions reductions
in the EU region and will ultimately through the flexibility mechanism lead persons to choose
the most optimal solutions109
On the surface the deregulated market-based agenda of ecological
modernisation seems to challenge the state-centric notions of green governmentality For
example according to the European Commission the flexibility mechanisms have created
innovative markets for new arms of business and has facilitated a range of actors (including
108
This scheme was designed to help the EU member states reach their emission reduction targets under the Kyoto
Protocol the programme in and of itself is legitimized by the same cost-efficiency and flexibility outline of the
Kyoto carbon market 109
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand Climate Governance Beyond 201 p 130
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
carbon traders and carbon finance specialists among others)110
However M Peeters (2003 p
154) argues that for an emissions trading scheme to be effective its compliance and effectiveness
provisions must be taken into account Ultimately we see here that the flexibility of the
ecological modernisation discourse is largely dependant on that of the green governmentality
discourse
Civic Environmentalism
Radical Resistance
The radical resistance discourse argues that the relations of power and powerlessness are at the
core of international institutions and negotiation processes111
It also criticises the arrangements
of global environmental governance which encompass the liberalization of markets and free
trade112
Additionally the radical resistance discourse argues that enduring power structures113
create and by extension perpetuate the environmental crisis whilst maintaining the inherent
structural inequalities between the periphery and the core114
At the centre of this discourse are the issues of Climate equity and sustainability Climate
equity115
concerns the fair distribution of the costs associated with climate change as well as the
110
European Comission (EU) 2004 EU Emission Trading An Open Scheme Promoting Global Innovation to
Combat Climate Change European Commission 111
Backstrand K and E Lovbrand p 132 112
Elliot L Global Environmental Governance p 58 113
Such as sovereignty capitalism scientism and patriarchy 114
Paterson M 2000 Understanding Global Environmental Politics Domination Accumulation and Resistance
Basingstoke Macmillan 115
This was epitomized in the heated debate between the US based think-tank World Resources Institute (WRI) and
India‟s Center for Science and Environment in the early 1990s
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
compensation of Less Developed (poor) countries due to their disproportionate vulnerability to
climate change116
Climate Governance in Darfur
Climate Governance is very important particularly in the case of Darfur At present Overall
Governance in the Sudanese region is very weak The responsibility for governance is diluted
over seven institutions these include The Ministry of Tourism The Ministry of Environment and
Physical Development The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources The Ministry of Animal
Resources The Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Health117
The body responsible for the
coordination of these institutions is the High Council for Environment and Natural Resources
However to date these groups have never met under the council and coupled with this is the
reality that these institutions are poorly connected their mandates duplicated not to mention that
fact that they are under-funded which intensifies competition for already scarce resources which
in and of itself exacerbates the already existing problems118
Because of the continued marginalization of the Darfur from other regions in Sudan particularly
the central region of Khartoum it (Darfur) has not been sufficiently prepared to deal with the
onslaught of climate change over the past two decades This was clear when Dr Alex de Waal119
met with a bedridden sheik from Darfur According to the Sheik before the decline in rainfall
The Sheikh‟s people lived in harmony with the settled farmers However with the onset of
drought in the region ldquofarmers began to fence off landndasheven fallowndashfor fear that it would be
116
H Ott et al 2004 South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse 117
UNEP 2007Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 297 118
Ibid p 303 119
a program director of the Social Science Research Council
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
ruined by passing herdsrdquo120
Additionally ldquoFarmers who had once hosted his tribe and his camels
were now blocking their migration the land could no longer support both herder and farmerrdquo121
However now that the incidence of climate change has been scientifically proven in the region
it is time for governance policies to be geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation
in the future
For Darfur recognising the problem of climate change as being a major contributor to the
conflict means seeking solutions that involve all necessary stakeholders Many argue that
changing climates in countries such as Darfur cannot be blamed on the region itself since it‟s
contributions to greenhouse gas emissions are very minimal Therefore taking the radical
resistance approach to governance it means that countries in the developed world122
must get
involved in the quest to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the Darfur region In the words
of Political Scientist Michael Byers ldquoThis changes us from the position of Good Samaritansndash
disinterested uninvolved people who may feel a moral obligationndashto a position where we
unconciously and without malice created the conditions that led to this crisisrdquo As such ldquoWe
cannot stand by and look at it as a situation of discretionary involvement We are already
involvedrdquo123
120
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2 http 121
Ibid 122
Who are the major contributors to greenhouse gases 123
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CHAPTER V RECOMMENDATIONS THE INTERVENTION OF KEY
STAKEHOLDERS
Internally Displaced Persons Refugees and Migrants
Sudan is first in the world with roughly five million internally displaced persons (IDPs) or
international refugees124
Specifically in Darfur‟s case because of the continued violence some
24 million people have been displaced since 2003125
For this stakeholder group once the
conflict is resolved they would want to return to their lands However they maybe faced with
some problems in that most of their lands have been destroyed and any remaining lands are
probably occupied by illegal squatters who are supported by the Government of Sudan126
Given
the circumstances this group has been faced with along with the fact that they are probably the
ones most affected by changing climate in the region it is clear that they have no real power to
initiate any reform as it relates to climate governance or the ability to influence concrete
resolutions to the conflict being faced in the region
The Government of Sudan (GOS)
The Government of Sudan led by the National Congress Party (NCP) has the potential to be a
major stakeholder in the fight against climate change in Sudan and the quelling of conflict in the
Darfur region What makes the inclusion of The GOS even more critical is its influence on the
amount of aid received by Darfur In March of this year Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir
expelled more that 10 International NGOs after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant
124
See UNEP 2007 p 9 125
Ibid 126
Farris Stephen 2007 The Real Roots of Darfur The Atlantic Online
httpwwwtheatlanticcomdoc200704darfur-climate2
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
for his arrest on charges of instigating war crimes in Darfur Prior to the expulsions aid groups
along with the UN ran the world‟s largest humanitarian effort with approximately 47 million
people in Darfur benefiting from humanitarian aid127
However the lands of Darfur are of major strategic interest to the government not only for
territorial purposes but also because of the potential oil resources to be found128
Additionally
faced with elections in 2010 and a referendum with the Government of South Sudan in 2011129
The NCP wants to maintain its political power As such the extent to which they canwill
contribute to the process of conflict resolution in Darfur along with their involvement in the
development of policies to facilitate effective climate governance remains a subject of debate
The Government of South Sudan (GOSS)
Although the Government of South Sudan holds limited decision making powers it has at least
made a concerted effort to try and reduce conflict in South Sudan How effective these
interventions are is what needs to be questioned In an effort to improve security throughout the
region the GOSS has from time to time employed civilian disarmament130
For example in 2006
utilizing the Sudan People‟s Liberation Army (SPLA) the GOSS sort to conduct a civilian
disarmament operation The effort was successful to the extent that over 3000 weapons were
collected however ldquothe campaign was ethnically focused and politically motivated not based on
127
Ibid 128
Gordon Carey N 1986 Recent Developments in the Land Law of Sudan A Legislative Analysis Journal of
African Law p 148 JSTOR 129
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 130
O‟Brien Adam 2008 Shots in the Dark the 2008 South Sudan Disarmament Campaign Smalls Arms Survey p
10 httpwwwsmallarmssurveyorgfilesportalspotlightsudanSudan_pdfSWP-16-South-Sudan-Civilian-
Disarmament-Campaignpdf
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
community-level security dynamics The approach was militaristic poorly planned and included
few security guaranteesrdquo131
Because of this some of the communities targeted in the operation
rebelled resulting in some 1600 lives being lost
On the Climate Governance front the GOSS is making an attempt to improve this in the region
It has already requested the UNEP to conduct a detailed environmental assessment of the country
in an effort to not only evaluate the state of Sudan‟s environment but also to point out the key
environmental challenges ahead132
This report has already been completed and among other
things it provides an overview of the environment of Sudan (including the conflict in Darfur) as
well recommendations to the issue of climate change as it relates to governance133
Despite these
efforts the conflict in Darfur still rages on It is hoped that in the near future the
recommendations put forth by the UNEP assessment will be utilized in an effort to promote
sustainable management practices in the region and by extension reduce the level of conflict
The ldquoJanjaweedrdquo Militia group
This group from all angles seems mostly interested in the acquisition of territoryland for their
pastoralist ethnic grouping Although they have limited influence on the GOS their inclusion
into any peace agreements is critical in the quest to end the crisis in Darfur
131
Ibid 132
UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment p 5 133
Ibid
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Arab and Non-Arab Tribes (those who possess land rights amp the landless)
The Tribe of Baggara (a pastoralist tribe) is one of those who not only possess land rights but
also have access to essential resources This tribe has however abstained from taking part in any
conflict in Darfur 134
As such there interests need to be taken into account in any peacemaking
or negotiating process
Conversely tribes such as The Terjem and Maharia (which interestingly are both Arab) are now
beginning to fight amongst themselves Where traditionally they sort to foster the integrity of
their territorial claims they are now engaging in the process of ldquoArab-Arab fractionalizationrdquo135
Whereby they are fighting amongst themselves for the spoils of Crisis This has the propensity
to exacerbate already existing tensions in the region It is therefore important to also include
these groups in the negotiation process for peace in the region
The African Union (AU)
The African Union‟s influence in the Darfur region has increased significantly Given the GOS
reluctance to accept UN peacekeeping troops in the region the Union‟s influence has
unintentionally been increased at the international level However in terms of its capacity to
reduce the intensity of conflict in the region this is another issue ldquoHundreds of Darfurian rebels
overran an African Union peacekeeping base in the central Darfur region of Sudan in a surprise
raidhellipkilling at least 10 soldiers possibly kidnapping dozens more and seizing supplies that
134
Human Rights Watch 2004 Darfur in Flames Atrocities in Western Sudan p 6 135
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Arab Tribes Battling in Darfur over the Spoils of War New York Times September 3
httpwwwnytimescom20070903worldafrica03cnd-
darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=1ampsq=Arab20tribes20battling20in20Darfur20over20the20spoils20of20w
arampst=cse
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
included heavy weaponsrdquo136
The African Union is crucial to the process of stablization in
Darfur It also has the capacity to aid in the process of sustainable development in the region as
well as to facilitate the process of much needed land reform
The United Nations (UN)
The United Nation‟s role in the conflict of Darfur is pivotal in the process of peacekeeping aid
and the overall process of climate governance Presently the UN in collaboration with other aid
groups run the world‟s largest humanitarian effort in Darfur with approximately 47 million
people benefiting from humanitarian aid137
Also despite the GOS‟s reluctance to collaborate
with the UN on the peacekeeping front they have been able to collaborate with the GOSS
through the arm of the United Nations Environment Programme on the very important issue of
climate governance138
Despite the UN‟s importance in Darfur its influence on the current
situation has been minimal The UN must try to increase its influence in Darfur by collaborating
with institutions such as the African Union in the process of peacekeeping and climate
governance
136
Gettleman Jeffrey 2007 Darfur rebels kill 10 in Peace Force New York Times October 1
httpwwwnytimescom20071001worldafrica01darfurhtml_r=1ampscp=5ampsq=African20Union20fighting
20in20Darfurampst=cse 137
Bayoumy Yara 2009 US calls for credible 2010 Sudan elections Reuters May 7
httpwwwreuterscomarticleafricaCrisisidUSL7480189 138
See UNEP 2007 Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CHAPTER VI IS CLIMATE CHANGE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL SECURITY
AGENDA
ldquoScientific evidence hashellipgiven us a picture of the physical impacts on our world that we can
expect as climate changes And those impacts go far beyond the environmental Their
consequences reach to the very heart of the security agendahelliprdquo These were the words of UK
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett at a UN Security council meeting in 2007139
Many
International actors including individual states and the UN now recognize the threat posed by
climate change140
However is Climate Change really reshaping the global security agenda Or is
the agenda being reshaped by other issues of concern such as Terrorism and the current global
financial and economic Crisis It is important not to look at the Climate Change-Security
discourse in isolation for other bourgeoning issues may either operate in tandem with climate
change or literally dwarf it into insignificance
Terrorism
Ever since the September 11 2001 attacks on the US the issue of Terrorism has occupied a very
high position on the agenda of Global Security Acts of Terrorism141
are however not a
phenomenon of the 21st century In fact they have been taking place as far back as the start of
the 20th
century for example the 1921 bombing of Blogard palace in Bessarabia (modern
Moldova) where 100 people was killed142
Today however the scope of terrorism has broadened
139
See UNSCDP United Nations Security Council Holds First ever debate on impact of climate change on peace
and security UN Security Council 5663rd
meeting 17 April 2007 140
Example UN General Assembly Resolution 44206 (22 December 1989) recognizes the long-term threat posed
to many low-lying states as a result of rising sea levels fuelled by climate change 141
See Appendix 7 142
Ibid
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
significantly and the occurrence has increased considerably Where in the 1970s the occurrence
of terrorism acts were probably one maybe two per year the year 2007 saw at least nine acts of
terrorism where more than one hundred persons were killed in each attack143
This clearly shows
why emphasis is now being placed on terrorism as a threat to global security This begs the
question has the issue of Terrorism become so important that issues pertaining to Climate
Change are now seen as deserving of the backburner Or has the issue of climate change
become so important that it is being discussed at the same of level of Terrorism
A report published by the National Intelligence Council in 2001 argues that ldquoagreements even
when implemented will not be able by 2015 to reverse the targeted environmental damage they
were designed to addresshellipGlobal warming will challenge the international communityrdquo This
shows the level of importance climate change will take on in the future But is there a more
direct link between climate change and terrorism and by extension security144
E Chalecki writing before the September 11 put forth the view that as the vulnerability index of
natural resources increases the more likely they would become targets of terrorism She says
quote ldquodestruction of a natural resource can now cause more deaths property damage political
chaos and other adverse effectsrdquo145
Chalecki goes on to make the distinction between
environmental resources utilized as a terrorist tool and the possibility of natural resources to
become a target of terrorism In the first case the resource is utilized as the vehicle to deliver the
143
See Appendix 7 144
K Campbell et al 2007 The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of
Global Climate Change The Centre for Strategic and International Studies p 17 145
Ibid
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
destructive agent in the human population While in the second case the resource itself is
targeted with nearby communities suffering the after effects
Since the attacks of September 11 the evidence of climate change has become more certain than
ever before This has made the relationship between climate change and terrorism more
prominent than ever before Janet Swain (2005) argues that with increased climate change the
resulting effects (drought famine) may cause persons to turn to existing terrorist groups which
can fulfil their basic needs better than existing political and social institutions146
More importantly is the fact that climate change has the potential to actually dwarf the
importance of terrorism For example leading security expert Gregory Foster argues that
ldquoEnvironmental degradation and climate change take us much farther along the path to ultimate
causes than terrorism ever could especially if we acknowledge that the social political
economic and military conditions we prefer to deal with and attribute violence to may mask
disaffection and unrest more deeply attributable to an environmentally degraded quality of
liferdquo147
The Global Financial and Economic Crisis
The current Global Financial and Economic crisis has been described as the worst crisis since the
great depression What distinguishes this crisis from previous ones is the fact that it is affecting
both the developed and developing world Many countries particularly in the developed world
146
Ibid p 18 147
Ibid p 18
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
have seen some of their strongest banks collapse while the level of unemployment has increased
considerably with millions of persons losing jobs on a daily basis Of note however is the
response of respective governments to this crisis While climate change took years of convincing
to get governments to respond the current financial crisis has seen rescue packages worth
trillions of US dollars been drawn up at an unprecedented pace According to Michael Liebreich
chairman of the research group New Energy Finance ldquothe financial crisis might make
governments less willing to extend preferential subsidies and incentives for clean powerrdquo148
This
begs the question is climate change being trumped by the current crisis And if so what does
this mean for the development of policies as it relates to climate governance
Many argue that climate change is being dwarfed by the current economic and financial crisis
Nothing demonstrates this more clearly than the defeat of the Climate Security Act on the US
senate floor in June 2008 The bill proposed to cap US greenhouse gas emissions This by all
accounts would have increased gasoline and energy prices However with the American
economy feeling the full brunt of the crisis within days of the bill being presented Senate
Democrats who initially supported it were jumping ship149
Says Professor Tom Burke founding
director of sustainable-development group E3G the recent crisis has created a ldquopolitics of
distractionrdquo whereby ldquoPeople are focused on other things and climate change has slipped down
the attention span of politicians and the mediardquo150
148
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 149
Nordhaus Ted and Michael Shellenberger 2008 The Green Bubble Bursts Los Angeles Times September 30
httpwwwlatimescomnewsopinionla-oe-shellenberger30-2008sep3005840948story 150
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
With the crisis is being compared to the likes of the great depression many countries are scared
out their wits this is potentially dangerous for efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change
Additionally with tanking economies dominating the media coupled with government‟s focus to
bail out their economies the climate change agenda may become potentially difficult to push
This has serious implications for climate change legislation Says Wiley Barbour founder of the
American Carbon Registry ldquoIf this crisis consumes all of our attention it might definitely impact
the speed at which [global warming] legislation could be passedrdquo151
Similar views were expressed by Yvo de Boer head of the UN Climate Change secretariat who
warns that it is ldquoundeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on climate-change
negotiationshellipif we go to citizens under the current circumstancesand say I‟m increasing your
tax burdenhellipto pay for climate policy that might not go down very wellrdquo152
151
Walsh Bryan 2008 Will the Environment Lose Out to the Economy Time October 7
httpwwwtimecomtimehealtharticle08599184740900html 152
Rice-Oxley Mark 2008 Financial Crisis threatens Climate Change momentum The Christian Science Monitor
November 18 httpfeaturescsmonitorcomenvironment20081113financial-crisis-threatens-climate-change-
momentum
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
CONCLUSION
In conclusion it can be seen that climate change clearly presents a problem to long-term security
What‟s more is the fact that although there is insufficient evidence to link climate change with
outbreaks of violence there is clear evidence that scarcity of resources (resulting from climate
change) does amplify existing conflict between and among regions As to whether it‟s reshaping
the global security agenda this is another issue In the current international environment efforts
to address climate change seem like an extreme phenomenon especially with the current global
financial and economic crisis However as climate change continues to take place and its effects
continue to expand globally this view maybe changed in the future
In the case of Darfur resolving the conflict is of pivotal importance in the effort to develop
initiatives geared towards climate change mitigation and adaptation This means the inclusion of
all necessary stakeholders in the peace-making process Additionally those aspects of the crisis
resulting from climate change should not be substituted to serve political interests
Given the increasing prevalence of climate change in the region peacemaking processes should
include discussions on climate governance because of the potential of climate change to not only
exacerbate already existing conflicts but also because of its impact on future security
Additionally any strategies geared towards climate change adaptation should incorporate peace-
building strategies since this can aid in the process of poverty reduction as well as improve the
region‟s ability to adapt to changing climates in the future
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Overall this thesis does not endeavour to have the final word on the unquestionably complex
area of climate change and security Rather what can be extracted are possible areas for future
research Some examples include
1 How will climate change affect the global security agenda of the world‟s major powers
In other words how will relations among these states be affected by climate change
Already in the Arctic region tensions are brewing among the five arctic powers mainly
because of the potential possibilities being revealed by the melting ice in the region
2 What role can adaptation technology play in finding alternative energy sources in an
insecure environment
3 What role will such trends as increasing technological development and increasing global
population combined with climate change play in shaping the future global economy
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 The Darfur Region
Darfur153
Sudan in the Region154
Sudan in the World
153
httpwwwrightsmapcomhtmlsudmap1html 154
httpwwwalertnetorgthenewsnewsdeskL03772791htm
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Appendix 2 Ethnicity in Darfur
Source understandingsudanorg
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Appendix 3 Conflicts in Sudan 1957-2006
Source UNEP Post Conflict Environmental Assessment Sudan
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=981anc981
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Appendix 4 The Impact of Climate Change in Sudan
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=989anc989
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Appendix 5 Displaced Persons Camps in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Appendix 6 Migration routes used in Darfur
Source UNEP
httppostconflictunepchsudanreportsudan_websiteindex_mapsphpdocid=986anc986
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
Appendix 7 Map of worst terrorist attacks worldwide 1921-October 2007
Source httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
This map shows the locations of terrorist strikes resulting in 100 or more fatalities
Numbers identify the individual strikes chronologically in the list below (fatalities in
parentheses) Magenta identifies strikes by Islamic terrorists red identifies all other strikes
1 13 Dec 1921 bombing of Bolgard palace in Bessarabia (modern Moldova) (100)
2 16 Apr 1925 bombing of cathedral in Sophia Bulgaria (160)
3 18 May 1973 mid-air bombing of Aeroflot airliner Siberia (100)
4 4 Dec 1977 crash of hijacked Malaysian airliner near Malaysia (100)
5 20 Aug 1978 arson of theater in Abadan Iran (477)
6 20 Nov-5 Dec 1979 hostage taking at Grand Mosque in Mecca Saudi Arabia (includes
87 terrorists killed) (240)
7 23 Sep 1983 crash of Gulf Air flight following mid-air bombing over the UAE (112)
8 23 Oct 1983 truck bombings of US Marine and French barracks Beirut Lebanon (301)
9 14 May 1985 armed attack on crowds in Anuradhapura Sri Lanka (150)
10 23 Jun 1985 mid-air bombing of Air India flight off Ireland and attempted bombing of
second flight in Canada (331)
11 18 Apr 1987 roadway ambush near Alut Oya Sri Lanka (127)
12 21 Apr 1987 bombing of bus depot in Columbo Sri Lanka (106)
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
13 29 Nov 1987 mid-air bombing of Korean Air flight near Burma (115)
14 21 Dec 1988 mid-air bombing of Pan Am flight over Lockerbie Scotland (270)
15 19 Sep 1989 mid-air bombing of French UTA flight near Bilma Niger (171)
16 27 Nov 1989 mid-air bombing of Avianca flight in Bogota Columbia (110)
17 3 Aug 1990 armed attack at two mosques in Kathankudy Sri Lanka (140)
18 13 Aug 1990 armed attack at mosque in Eravur Sri Lanka (122)
19 2 Oct 1990 crash of hijacked PRC airliner in Guangzhou PRC (132)
20 12 Mar 1993 15 bombings in Bombay India (317)
21 22 Sep 1993 crash of airliner struck by missile in Sukhumi Georgia (106)
22 19 Apr 1995 truck bombing of federal building Oklahoma City Oklahoma USA (169)
23 14-19 June 1996 hostage taking in Budennovsk Russia and two failed rescue attempts
(143)
24 23 Nov 1996 crash of hijacked Ethiopian Air flight off Comoros (127)
25 29 Aug 1997 attacks at Sidi Moussa and Hais Rais Algeria (238)
26 22 Sep 1997 attack at Ben Talha Algeria (277)
27 30 Dec 1997 attack at Ami Moussa Algeria (272)
28 4 Jan 1998 attacks at Had Chekala Remka and Ain Tarik Algeria (172)
29 11 Jan 1998 attack on movie theater and mosque at Sidi Hamed Algeria (103)
30 8 Aug 1998 truck bombings of US embassies in Nairobi Kenya and Dar es Saalam
Tanzania (303)
31 13 Sep 1999 bombing of apartment building in Moscow Russia (130)
32 31 Oct 1999 intentional crash of Egypt Air flight off Massachusetts USA by pilot (217)
33 10 Aug 2001 attack on train south of Luanda Angola (152)
34 11 Sep 2001 crashing of hijacked planes into World Trade Center New York City New
York Pentagon in Alexandria Virginia and site in Pennsylvania USA (2993)
35 12 Oct 2002 car bombing outside nightclub in Kuta Indonesia (202)
36 26 Oct 2002 hostage taking and attempted rescue in theater in Moscow Russia (includes
41 terrorists killed) (170)
37 29 Aug 2003 car bombing outside mosque in Najaf Iraq (125)
38 1 Feb 2004 two suicide bombings of political party offices in Irbil Iraq (109)
39 21 Feb 2004 armed attack and arson at refugee camp Uganda (239)
40 27 Feb 2004 bombing and fire on ferry near Manila Philippines (118)
41 2 Mar 2004 multiple suicide bombings at shrines in Kadhimiya and Karbala Iraq (188)
42 11 Mar 2004 bombings of four trains in Madrid Spain (191)
43 24 Jun 2004 multiple bombings and armed attacks in several cities in Iraq (103)
44 1-3 Sep 2004 hostage taking at school in Beslan Russia (includes 30 terrorists killed)
(366)
45 28 Feb 2005 car bombing outside medical clinic in Hilla Iraq (135)
46 14 Sep 2005 multiple suicide bombings and shooting attacks in Baghdad Iraq (182)
47 5 Jan 2006 bombings in Karbala Ramadi and Baghdad Iraq (124)
48 11 Jul 2006 multiple bombings on commuter trains in Mumbai India (200)
49 16 Oct 2006 truck bombing of military convoy near Habarana Sri Lanka (103)
50 23 Nov 2006 multiple car bombings in Baghdad Iraq (202)
51 22 Jan 2007 multiple bombings in Baghdad area Iraq (101)
52 3 Feb 2007 truck bombing in market place in Baghdad Iraq (137)
53 6 Mar 2007 two bombings and other attacks on pilgrims Hilla Iraq (137)
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html
54 27 Mar 2007 two truck bombings in Tal Afar Iraq (152)
55 18 Apr 2007 bombings in Baghdad Iraq (193)
56 3-10 Jul 2007 hostage taking and subsequent storming of mosque in Islamabad Pakistan
(102)
57 7 Jul 2007 bombings in Baghdad and Armili Iraq (182)
58 14 Aug 2007 multiple truck bombings in Al-Qataniyah and Al-Adnaniyah Iraq (520)
59 18 Oct 2007 bombing of motorcade in Karachi Pakistan (140)
Compiled by Wm Robert Johnston155
155
httpwwwjohnstonsarchivenetterrorismglobalterrorism1html