CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISK Keep an open mindKeep an open mind Give yourself timeGive yourself time Get more informationGet more information Neutral sources. Avoid confirmation biasNeutral sources. Avoid confirmation bias Fight cultural cognitionFight cultural cognition Be a smarter news consumerBe a smarter news consumer Think about trade-offsThink about trade-offs HAZARD A RISK? EXPOSURE (non-poisonous) (non-poisonous) HAZARD AND EXPOSURE DEFINITELY A RISK!!!! KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD IS IT A HAZARD? (And at what dose?)IS IT A HAZARD? (And at what dose?) Pesticides PesticidesNanotechnology Pharmaceuticals in drinking water PCBs in window caulk of buildings built or PCBs in window caulk of buildings built or renovated 1950 1978 renovated 1950 1978 KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES?WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES? - DESCRIBE THE RESULT OF THE HAZARD. - DESCRIBE THE RESULT OF THE HAZARD. - WHEN. Immediate (sunburn) or Delayed (cancer) - WHEN. Immediate (sunburn) or Delayed (cancer) - DEGREE. Mild (wrinkly skin), Severe (Non-fatal - DEGREE. Mild (wrinkly skin), Severe (Non-fatal skin cancers requiring surgery), or Fatal skin cancers requiring surgery), or Fatal (melanoma) (melanoma) - FOR HOW LONG? Acute (Short term sunburn), or Chronic (longer lasting lifelong risk of skin cancer.) - FOR HOW LONG? Acute (Short term sunburn), or Chronic (longer lasting lifelong risk of skin cancer.) KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD HOW HAZARDOUS?HOW HAZARDOUS? H1N1 H1N1 Mercury (Philippe Grandjean et al., Cognitive Deficit in 7-Year-Old Children Mercury (Philippe Grandjean et al., Cognitive Deficit in 7-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Exposure to Methylmercury, Neurotoxicology and Teratology with Prenatal Exposure to Methylmercury, Neurotoxicology and Teratology 19, no. 6 (1997), pp. 417428) 19, no. 6 (1997), pp. 417428) Nuclear radiation (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII, Nuclear radiation (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII, Phase 2, National Research Council of the National Academies of Science, Phase 2, National Research Council of the National Academies of Science, Solar radiation Solar radiation KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD HAZARDOUS TO WHOM? (SUBGROUPS!)HAZARDOUS TO WHOM? (SUBGROUPS!)CRIMEMERCURYDRIVING KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS - AGE, HEALTH STATUS, GENDER, LOCATION. KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSURE DOSEDOSE BY WHAT ROUTE?BY WHAT ROUTE? INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME?OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME? SHORT TERM? LIFETIME? AT WHAT AGE?AT WHAT AGE? KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSURE DOSEDOSE BY WHAT ROUTE?BY WHAT ROUTE? INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME?OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME? SHORT TERM? LIFETIME? AT WHAT AGE?AT WHAT AGE? KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERAL TRADE OFFSTRADE OFFS Energy Choices, Air Bags, Pharmaceuticals Mercury (Positive effects of fats from fish v. negative effects of mercury from fish for negative effects of mercury from fish for developing fetal health) Gary Myers and Philip Davidson, Maternal Fish Consumption Benefits Children's Development, Lancet 369, no (2007), pp. 537538. developing fetal health) Gary Myers and Philip Davidson, Maternal Fish Consumption Benefits Children's Development, Lancet 369, no (2007), pp. 537538. KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERAL VARIOUS METRICS FOR LIKELIHOODVARIOUS METRICS FOR LIKELIHOOD Risk of dying in a plane crash Per mile? Per flight? Per average American? Per average flier? Per frequent flier? Averages over what period? (10 yr. avg. includes 9/11) (10 yr. avg. includes 9/11) KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERAL Fun With Numbers! PROBABILITIES GENERAL OR SUB-POPULATION SPECIFIC? Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in America. (EPA)Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in America. (EPA) It kills between 3,000 and 32,000 Americans per year.It kills between 3,000 and 32,000 Americans per year. 85% OF THEM ARE SMOKERS85% OF THEM ARE SMOKERS KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERAL Fun With Numbers! PROBABILITIES ANNUAL OR LIFETIME? ANNUAL OR LIFETIME? The average Americans chance of getting cancer each year is roughly 1 in 225. The average Americans chance of getting cancer each year is roughly 1 in 225. The average American womans lifetime risk of getting cancer is 1 in 3. For men, its 1 in 2. The average American womans lifetime risk of getting cancer is 1 in 3. For men, its 1 in 2. KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERAL Fun With Numbers! ABSOLUTE or RELATIVE? A risk that is one in a million for the average person, and doubles, goes up 100% in relative risk, but is still only 2 in a million in absolute deaths ABSOLUTE RELATIVE How many? How Many COMPARED to something else RISK NUMBERS RELATIVE VS. ABSOLUTE Relative annual risk of dying on the job rose 65%. (Subhead, lead) Absolute annual risk of dying on the job went from 15 in a million to 25 in a million. (not mentioned anywhere in the story)