critical communications at the edge - 15-04-16 - v1

Critical communications at the edge –2G to 5G in as few steps as possible?

Peter Clemons - Founder, Quixoticity

Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa, Wellington, April 15th, 2016

www.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ #CommsNZ

www.comms-connect.co.nzwww.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ

Quixoticity?• Educated in UK/Latin America:• Languages, philosophy, sociology, economics & communications theory• Clemons Consulting dedicated to critical communications since 1998• Quixoticity established in March 2012• 20+ years of experience of economic analysis & project management & 20 years in mobile communications (global PMR/TETRA)• Ex-director & board member of global TCCA• A fresh, flexible, adaptable, more robust approach to forecasting• Using experience, knowledge & new techniques to open a window on the future• Working closely together with industry to explore new possibilities • Seeing the world differently – from new angles & finding new directions• Championing innovation & visionary thinking• Very active on LinkedIn!!!


“The new normal?”• 9/11

• 11-M

• 7/7

• Paris

• Brussels

• Sadly, daily/weekly in some parts of the world

• Hurricanes, cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis

• Accidents, congestion, delays, stress….


Society on the edge• A world of constant crises

• A lack of leadership & direction from:– Religious institutions

– Political institutions

– Universities

– Businesses

– International institutions

• Aging population; digital overload; youth unemployment

• Overcrowded cities; lack of rural services;

• Lack of a deeper meaning to life; lack of time

www.comms-connect.co.nzwww.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ www.comms-connect.co.nzwww.comms-connect.co.nz@CommsConnectANZ

Economy on the edge

• Growing inequality (the first digital trillionaire?)

• The mirage of global growth

• Is GDP a good indicator of economic activity?

• The rise of new business models

• The death of old industries

• The 24/7 economy

• The search for a “new equilibrium”

• Re-thinking money & wealth

• A new work-life balance?


Old v New?

• Youth v experience

• Prototype v finished article

• Analogue v Digital

• 2G v 5G

• Past v Future (more about this later)

• Seamless migration; HW/SW upgrades

• Intergenerational compatibilities

• Status quo v change


Rich v Poor?

• Satisfying basic needs

• Universal service obligations

• Provision of basic public services

• Product ownership v access

• Price v value

• Equal opportunities

• Universal human rights, fairness & justice

• Public safety???


Public v Private?

• Market forces

• Command economy

• Capitalism v Socialism

• The public/private space

• Communities

• Partnerships

• New models for societies & economies

• Beyond capitalism/socialism



Critical v commercial?

• Government obligations

• Private enterprise

• Safety & security motive

• Profit motive

• Mission-critical communications

• Best-effort communications

• Guaranteed coverage, reliability & availability

• Lifestyle, marketing, nice-to-have, digital addiction…



The Past

• Fond, but fading memories• Quaint, outdated products• Spare parts no longer available• Incompatible• Proprietary• No longer available/supported• Cheaper to buy a new one!


The Present

• Standards-based

• Economies of scale

• Interoperable

• Digital

• Smart cities; not-so-smart rural areas

• Best-effort

• Dichotomies still exist – at least inside our heads!


The Future

• Anything is possible

• Hopefully better; could be much worse

• Radically different, but not sure how

• Incremental v revolutionary

• Intuitive – if you’re under 20!

• Utopia v dystopia

• What dreams are made of!


The 2G World

• ETSI’s GSM + TETRA

• Digital allows:

– economies of scale & global standards

– harmonised spectrum

• Limited applications, beyond voice

• Increasingly IP-based

• Robust mission-critical comms solutions, separate from commercial solutions

• A big improvement from the past in terms of operational efficiencies & effectiveness


The 3G > 4G World

• Smartphones

• High-speed data

• Internet in my pocket

• Moving towards a single, global platform

• Mobile office

• Greater automation

• First steps towards a brave new world – social media, wearables, VR/AR, IoT, Smart Cities – but not quite there yet!

• Mission-critical? (i.e. Safe Cities?)


The 5G World• A promise of future riches

• The solution to all the world’s problems

• Everything to everyone, everywhere

• Total automation; zero-latency; intelligent, adaptable networks

• Full connectivity from Auckland to Fox Glacier

• A nightmare future world where machines take over

• The destruction of middle class jobs

• So what is 5G really??

• We’ll come back to this later


Digital Mobile Radio

• TETRA

• P25

• DMR

• Mission-critical

• Business-critical

• Coverage, capacity, cost & functionality

• Robust voice, short data, applications (GPS, AVL etc.)

• Mature, secure, tried & tested

• (And, of course, analogue hasn’t gone away!)


The TETRA world

• ETSI global standard (1990s > today/tomorrow)

• 25 kHz channels, 4-slot TDMA

• Dedicated frequencies

• Rich functionality

• Ultra-secure

• All sectors; continues to evolve

• European nationwide public safety

• Very limited take-up of TEDS (TETRA Enhanced Data Services)


Public Safety LTE

• LTE begins with 3GPP Release 8

• High-speed data bearer optimised for smartphone-world

• LTE-Advanced (Rel. 10) signals start of “4G”

• US DoD/PSCR enter at R11 (2010/11)

• TCCA CCBG enter at R12 (2012)

• 3GPP SA6 (Public safety apps) created late 2014

• Mission-critical PTT (R13) published last month

• Huawei, Nokia & Ericsson all now TCCA members (Samsung also very active in SA6)


Public Safety LTE around the world• 3GPP SA6 is the battleground!• R12+13 complete; R14 being defined• WRC-15 – Resolution 646 – 694-894 MHz• FirstNet (USA)• ESMCP/ESN (UK)• SafeNet (Korea)• Australian Productivity Commission• Europe – TETRA refresh; data MVNOs; dwindling budgets• Latin America (Mexico – Red Compartida)


FirstNet

• 9/11 highlights lack of first-responder interoperability/technical deficiencies

• DHS/Safecom

• P25 – expensive, limited data, limited coverage

• 2012 – Middle Class Tax Relief & Job Creation Act

• First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet)

• LTE; 700 MHz (2x10 MHz); $US 7 billion

• 4 years of red tape, documents & consultations

• Ongoing RFP extended to May 31 – will anyone bid?

• Many challenges ahead. The right model?


UK: Airwave > ESMCP/ESN• Airwave – nationwide TETRA roll-out (2001-2005)

• A network dedicated to public safety

• Coverage of over 99% UK land-mass including remote areas

• 3,500+ base stations; 300,000+ users from hundreds of orgs.

• Private monopoly

• Full interoperability of all services

• Emergency PTT every 6 seconds

• Royal weddings; Olympics; riots etc.

• Austerity politics – UK Coalition Govt. from 2010 onwards

• ESMCP/ESN: Demand for a “better, cheaper, smarter” solution – based on commercial LTE

• Home Office/Cabinet Office - Reduce £450 million annual bill

• No dedicated spectrum; no dedicated network; no Government ownership


ESMCP/ESN – Latest situation

• Lot 1 (Delivery Partner/Project Management) contract awarded in August 2015 to KBR (assisted by a number of consultants such as Arup, Mason Advisory)

• Motorola Solutions awarded Lot 2 contract (User Services) in December 2015

• EE awarded key Lot 3 contract (Resilient, nationwide mobile network) in December 2015

• Airwave sues UK Government in December 2015

• BT completed acquisition of EE in early 2016

• Motorola Solutions completed Airwave acquisition in February 2016

• Airwave drops law-suit against UK Government in February 2016

• Motorola Solutions announces in quarterly analyst call in February 2016 that Airwave contracts extended until end-2019

• Ambitious time-lines for migration of 300,000 subscriber units, 45,000 vehicles & 230 control rooms likely to be relaxed over the coming months & years


Convergence or divergence of models?• Lots & lots of options

• The good, the bad & the ugly

• Dedicated, shared, commercial spectrum

• GOGO, GOCO, COCO, MNO, NO GO!

• Timescales; risk appetite; hybrid; LMR switch-off?

• Need for more research on models?

• Network of networks?

• Cost of (not) having multiple networks?

• Be careful who you copy? Be careful who you believe?


Moving towards the 5G Era• We genuinely appear to be on the cusp of significant societal change

• We appear to be reaching the limits of the current Model

• Proliferation of crises

• Increased complexity of the systems we depend on

• Is technology the problem or the solution?

• Are we on the verge of:– the mother of all depressions?

– a new Golden Age (5G Era)?

• Answers on a digital postcard, please!


What is 5G?• We’ve had 2G, 3G & 4G, so now it’s time for 5G

• Big business; Big sporting events; Big sponsors; Big bucks; race “to be the first”

• Global suppliers, operators & their Governments (President/PM’s new clothes!)

• IMT-2020, 3GPP R14,15,16, 5GPPP, NGMNA, 5GIC, 5G Americas, Horizon 2020, Google SkyBender…

• Fixed-mobile convergence; Mobile Edge Computing; SDN/NFV evolution

• 5GIC’s Rahim Tafazolli: “The perception of infinite capacity”

• Very high speeds; very reliable networks; massive number of connections (network slicing) Trade-offs/flexible, smart architectures

• The need for real demand; the need for real services - Public safety first? Mission-critical?

• 5G is an opportunity – 5G is also real – but only if we are prepared to face up to uncomfortable truths about where we have come from & where we are going

• What will be 5G’s iPhone moment?? Something related to critical communications??


Critical communications at the edge• Coverage, availability, reliability

• Government Universal Service Obligation

• Is connectivity a basic human right?

• Reversal of privatisation? (New economy)

• New forms of Public-private partnerships (PPP)

• Truly mobile networks? Body area sensor networks (IEEE)

• Revolution or evolution? (Technical or social?)

• Military grade > civilian grade?

• Who can deliver the universal coverage that 5G Era will demand?

• Laws of physics, laws of nature & human laws working together

• Past-in-the-present, present-in-the –present & future-in-the-present

• The end of an either-or mentality?


2G to 5G – how many steps?

• As many as needed – a long & winding road

• Test, test & test again

• Lots & lots of moving parts

• We must get “5G Era” right

• All stakeholders must be properly consulted

• Sensible time-lines without limiting ambition

• Government accountability & safety nets

• We will intuitively know/feel if we get it right or wrong

• Exciting new technologies that need to interconnect to create future society

“Dad, are we there yet?”


Global Critical Alliance• Focus on “critical communications” past, present & future• A global solution to a global problem• Start small, stay nimble• Target global “5G Era” suppliers to explain the importance of “mission-critical”• Playing the long game• Not competing against existing bodies; search for best practice & education of

authorities & key decision-makers• Background work under way – further announcements during 2016 (maybe even as

early as Critical Communications World in Amsterdam?)• All suggestions welcome – pressure from real users will be key


Global Critical Index• Quixoticity’s main “top secret” research focus at the moment

• Need to rank public safety authorities globally

• Need to rank global suppliers in the move of critical communications from 2G > 5G

• Definitely not just about “Citius, Altius, Fortius”

• Smarter, sustainable, common sense, best-practice strategies

• Encourage innovation in new community models based on security, integration, interoperability, cooperation & funding

• I haven’t talked to Paul yet, but CommsConnect Melbourne in November might be a good time for launch!

• Once again, all suggestions welcome – input from real users will be key


The pursuit of best practice• Each region is different

• Each country is different

• Global standards implemented locally

• As broad a vision as possible

• No limits to ambition – intergenerational interaction

• As many experiences/scenarios as possible

• Critical thinking

• Lots of data – big data – data analytics

• Ask the right questions in the first place

• Make sure you understand what you are measuring

• Qualitative data as important as quantitative data


The importance of common sense

• We must never lose sight of basic needs

• Public safety

• The common good

• Cohesive society

• Representative Government

• An innate sense of right & wrong; true & false

• 5G Era/digital age must be about transparency & accountability


The beginning of a new time• “Digital” will change our global society & economy

• Don’t be afraid of change, embrace it…

• …but not change for change’s sake!

• It will take longer than many think…

• & have wider consequences than any of us can possibly imagine

• “The king is dead; long live the king.”

• Don’t believe everything a consultant tells you…

• STAY YOUNG AT HEART, STAY QUIXOTIC!


Would you like to help bring the future into the present?

For more in-depth analysis & commentaryon the critical communications landscape, please contact:Peter ClemonsFounder, Quixoticity Ltd.9 Pine Grove, Penenden HeathMaidstone, Kent. ME14 2AJ. [email protected]: peterclemonsLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/peter-clemons-041845

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critical communications at the edge - 15-04-16 - v1

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