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8-18-2021

Critical Chain – Or Why Wedding Planners Get Ulcers Critical Chain – Or Why Wedding Planners Get Ulcers

Greg Hutto

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Citation Citation Hutto, G. (2021). Critical Chain – Or Why Wedding Planners Get Ulcers. Operations Management Presentations. Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/opmapub/27

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ENGINEERING AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTLUNCH & LEARN WEBINAR SERIES

August 18, 2021

College of Engineering & Industrial Engineering Programs

• Master of Science– Operations Management– Engineering Management– Engineering

• Graduate Certificates– Project Management– Lean Six Sigma– Homeland Security

Welcome!Moderator:

Karin HickenbothamMarketing & Communications Specialist,

Master of Science in Operations & Engineering Management Graduate Programs

Please save all questions until the end of the presentation.

We ask all questions will be typed in the Chat Box at the end of the presentation.This webinar is being recorded and will be posted on ScholarWorks@UARK in our Operations

Management collection of presentations.

THANK YOU!

LET’S GET STARTED!

Critical Path – or Why Wedding

Planners Get Ulcers

College of EngineeringIndustrial Engineering

Master of Science in Operations & Engineering Management

Greg HuttoTest Wing Chief Operations Analyst

Mr. Gregory Hutto is the 96th Test Wing Chief Operations Analyst - embedding designed experiments as the principal test method for several hundred tests each year. He teaches several short courses in test methods at all levels. USAF Reserve LtCol Hutto was senior military advisor to AF Operational Test & Evaluation Center and a Master Instructor at the Test Pilot School, Edwards AFB, California. Mr. Hutto is a distinguished graduate of the US Naval Academy in Operations Research and holds a Master’s in that field from Stanford University. In Greg’s 40+ years he’s been the Chief Ops Analyst in nearly every major USAF Test Organization. He would like to publicly repent of 11 years in test without the benefits of design of experiments (DOE).

TODAY’S PRESENTER

Project Management – A Science? 600K Project Management Institute (PMI) members not wrong Project Management guide to Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)

Project: “temporary endeavor to create a unique good or service” Projects are distinct from day-to-day work (stocking, sales, service) Project Conditions: budget, schedule, deliverables But it ain’t easy or always a win … from widely quoted “Laws of PM”

Critical Path & Critical Chain CPM -- 1950’s Walker (Dupont), Kelly (Remington), Booz Allen

Used on Polaris Nuclear Sub – gold standard of Project Management Companies spend $1B+ per year on PM software alone (Gartner Group)

Dr. Eliahu Goldratt introduces Theory of Constraints 1984 published the business novel The Goal

Young plant manager must make plant profitable in six months or face closure

1996 Godratt published Critical Chain Young Ops Mgt/Business tenure-track Professor must innovate & publish, or perish

CPM – As Designed

Define Tasks – Estimate time, cost , resources Build network of tasks, dependencies ID longest path & manage to the critical path

Promised Task Completion Times Have “Safety”

Promised times include surprising amount of slack or “safety” Life is truly uncertain – we need safety ... How to provide?

8–9

Planning a Wedding … Surely a Project Create a unique product with budget, schedule, features?

Source: https://www.southernbride.com/

The NOW! Wedding – Problem Statement

Imagine a New Year’s Eve Conversation in 2021 … Lauren: “I’m engaged – we’re marrying!” Mom&Dad: “Wonderful! When is the wedding?” Lauren: “3 weeks. Connor deploys 30 Jan. AND we’re

planning a seven day Honeymoon to Aruba!” Mom&Dad: “….Ohhh … Wow!.... Ya don’t say!.............”

Graph Theory to the Rescue! Can we marry off Lauren before our hero deploys?

The NOW! Wedding – Reading Gantt Tasks

The NOW! Wedding – Reading Gantt Bars

The NOW! Wedding – Reading Gantt Chart 3

21 Jan NOT feasible … the dress creates the critical path

The NOW! Wedding – Dad Buys Time (literally)

Costs Daddy $751.57 - 21 Jan tight but feasible if all is well

The NOW! Wedding – Planner gets ulcers

Mother is sick – delays start of guest list Bob’s Print down 1 day for repair to motors Lace & Dress fabric lost in transit .. Loss reported day 7

The Evidence is in – Critical Path has no clothes Large Company projects have only

42% of features (Standish Group Report – Chaos, 2000)

85% Semiconductor projects late (2001 survey by Numetrics, Inc)

High-tech projects average 100% late despite PM software & tools (UC Berkeley)

80% embedded systems are late (The Gansale Group, 2001)

7 of 10 largest UK defense projects late/over budget (MOD Audit, 2002)

8–17

https://www.standishgroup.com/

What Ails Critical Path Method? Student Syndrome – we procrastinate since slack

exists -- chronic late starts Deadline focus & Parkinson’s Law – work

expands to fill allotted time – no early finishes Multitasking – multi-project setting leads to

task-switching – multiplies expected task times

Result: Safety is wasted & multitasking increases delays –delays compound but are not offset by early completions

Critical Chain: Buffers Uncover & Manage Safety

Trim Task Estimates – move “safety” to buffer where it can do good Removes slack promoting procrastination – start NOW!

8–19

Pipelining – Multiple Project Environment

Release work into system only as it can be completed Reduce multitasking task delays Replace deadlines with ASAP - promotes early submittal8–20

Track & Manage Buffers to Focus Executives

Overall status? Who gets attention – now! ?8–21

Fever Chart – Buffer Penetration

Percent of Critical Chain Complete

Perc

ent B

uffe

r Con

sum

ed

On Time

The NOW! Wedding – Critical Chain

21 Jan feasible with 5 day project buffer (1/3 of project)

The NOW! Wedding – Critical Chain w/ Ulcers

Consumed all the project buffer but wedding is 21 Jan

The Golden Chain Story Related by Raytheon Center

of Excellence for Project Management circa 2004

Defense Project by firm in Colorado Springs …

Implementing Critical Chain with a literal Golden Chain

8–24

Bibliography Larsen, Gray, Project Management: The Managerial Process, 8th ed McGraw Hill ProChain - commercial TOC company – Dr Wendall Simpson Realization – commercial TOC company – Mr Sridar Chandrasekaran Critical Chain Project Management (text), Leach, Lawrence ISBN 1-58053-074-5 Raytheon COE for Project Management Santiago, Jesse (February 4, 2009). Critical Path Method (PDF). Stanford. Kelley, James; Walker, Morgan. Critical-Path Planning and Scheduling. 1959

Proceedings of the Eastern Joint Computer Conference. Kelley, James; Walker, 1984, T.Morgan. The Origins of CPM: A Personal History.

PMNETwork 3(2):7–22 Goldratt, Eliahu, PhD, “The Goal” TOC for Manufacturing Goldratt, Eliahu, PhD, “Critical Chain ”, 1996, TOC-Critical Chain for Project

Management8–25

•.

Question and Answer with Greg!

Type your questions in the chat box of this

session.https://business-central.to-increase.com/md/en-US/CONAJMOW_1039

M.S. OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTAT A GLANCE:

• 100% Online (or live)• In-State Tuition for Everyone!• 10 Graduate Course Program (30 hours)

– Up to 4 prerequisite classes may be required• Five 8-week Sessions Per Year• Pair Master’s with Graduate Certificate with

no extra hours required• No GRE/GMAT required with 3.0 Bachelor's GPA• Total Program Cost is $12,000 to $15,000 (depending on prereqs

needed)

Graduate Certificates

Project Management – Designed to provide skills to become better project managers and prepare for PMP Certification

Homeland Security – Designed for industry and safety professionals to learn how to mitigate risk

Lean Six Sigma – Learn how to eliminate problems, remove waste and reduce variation to improve operations

Graduate Certificates

• Only 4 Classes!• Obtain as part of your Master’s Degree without taking

extra classes. Classes will double count!• Can also be completed as stand-alone program• 2.5 Undergraduate GPA required for admission• No GRE/GMAT• Transition to MSOM option with no GRE

Covid-19 Special Announcement:

Effective through Spring 2022 term, at this time we are waiving the GRE for applicants with a 2.5-2.99 undergraduate GPA.

Applicants with above a 3.0 GPA the GRE is automatically waived for any term.

Once GRE testing centers resume operations, the standard admissions requirements will go back into full effect.

Question and Answer with Greg!

Type your questions in the chat section of this

session.

NEXT WEBINAR:

“Why Sustainment is Critical to Technical Product Circular Supply ChainsPresented by: Dave Peterson

• For information about our flexible degree program options, email Karin Hickenbotham kahicken@uark.edu

• Visit operations-management.uark.edu

• Registered participants will receive an email with the video link to this webinar. We hope to see you online next month!

THANKS FOR ATTENDING!