crisis response · for a new social contract that requires national threats to be reviewed...

News ...................................................4

CommentTime to stand up and be heard .................8Eric J Russell asks why warnings and advice from disaster managers and experts go unheeded with such depressing regularity

Disaster management and Godzilla ......... 12Shin Godzilla is the metaphorical embodiment of contemporary and institutional disaster management in a large-scale catastrophe, say experts from the University of Alaska Fairbanks

Climate change in the time of Covid-19 ... 16Alice C Hill and William Kakenmaster warn that we cannot divert focus from the crucial efforts needed to reduce emissions permanently

Covid-19 analysisEmergency management ....................... 20The pandemic is a make-or-break test of crisis response preparation and is likely to be the fi rst of many global crises. We shouldn’t just be dealing with this one, but preparing for the next, says John Drake

Why have an independent inquiry? .......... 22Lucian J Hudson presents the case for a timely, independent lessons learned inquiry in the UK, calling for a new social contract that requires national threats to be reviewed regularly and visibly

Is there really a ‘new normal’? ................ 26Citizens in Western Europe, North America and beyond have never had restrictions on our freedom such as those mandated by the response to Covid-19, writes Lyndon Bird. What does this bode for the future?

No one is coming ................................. 30Emergency managers will still be working in communities to pick up the pieces long after the Covid-19 crisis is over. Sherry-Lea Bloodworth Botop says this is nothing new and that the recovery process often lacks the necessary support

Supply chain surge capacity .................. 36Covid-19 saw the entire world simultaneously in need of the same lifesaving tools. Bill Peterson explores how globalisation, interconnectedness and the constant quest to drive prices down in the public and private sectors have led to a battle between national and international interests

Lockdown exits and supply chains .......... 38The only effective way to avoid logistical disruption is to slow the recovery of economic activity with a gradual ending of lockdowns, as Gilles Paché explains

Science on the front line ....................... 42The current pandemic has laid bare the need for independent, well-funded science and research and it is vital that governments do not interfere, but instead provide support, says Paolo Garonna

Building equity in crises ........................ 46Covid-19 disproportionately affects people of colour and those living with poverty and medical fragility. Marcus Tillman Coleman Jr calls for change

The psychosocial burdens of Covid-19 .... 50Virtually everyone across the globe will experience varying degrees of psychosocial burden as a result of this crisis, write Gregory Ciottone, Todd Benham, and colleagues

Overcoming mental health challenges ..... 54There are many effects of the pandemic that are deleterious to our wellbeing. What can we do to keep ourselves healthy, both physically and mentally? Lyzi G Cota provides some answers

Drawing from hostage experiences ......... 57Sue Williams advises on how to cope with isolation, whether in lockdown or a prolonged hostage situation, using ‘conduct after capture’ techniques

Harnessing AI: .................................... 58Artifi cial intelligence told us about the pandemic before the WHO knew about it, writes Stephane Martin

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Published by Crisis Management Limited, Sondes Place Farm, Westcott Road, Dorking RH4 3EB, UKCOPYRIGHT Crisis Management Limited 2020. Articles published may not be reproduced in any form without prior written permission.Printed in England by The Manson Group, UKISSN 1745-8633

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June 2020 | vol:15 | issue:2

contents

Supply chain surges p36Societal disaster management p12

2 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com

Gracie Broom Gracie Broom

Transformational technology ................. 60Susan Morgan asks us to question the long-term implications of deploying digital technology as a response to Covid-19

Infecting the truth ................................ 63At a time when trust between government and the population is vital, Covid-19 presents a chance for fake news, disinformation and conspiracy theories to abound, reports Ørjan Karlsson

Communication and recovery ................. 64Exercises and training focus on responding to a crisis quickly, but they rarely consider how to deal with the situation that follows, writes Amanda Coleman

A humanitarian perspective ................... 66Andrew B Brown looks at how a faith-based INGO has kept its staff safe while helping to protect vulnerable communities

HealthcareDelivering care in complex disasters ....... 68Planning a medical response must go beyond the immediate to address the long-term health care needs of affected communities, says Ayman S Jundi

Shifting the balance in medicine ............. 70Margaret Heffernan used to object to the idea of telemedicine because she thought it was less human and a denial of comfort in times of need. But, she says, she has changed her mind

EMS workers in hostile environments ...... 74Emergency Medical Service workers are exposed to aggression and violence in their daily operations, but they are not always prepared. A change in mindset is required, contends Christoph Lippay

Violence & extremismCan we prepare for school shootings? ..... 78Attacks on students continue to happen sporadically throughout the world. Kjell Brataas takes a closer look at lessons learned

Tackling right-wing lone actors .............. 81We must hold a mature debate on home-grown terrorism and its causes, but society, governments and industry are turning a blind eye, says Florian Hartleb

ResponseSuperyachts in island disaster response .. 84There is signifi cant potential for superyachts to have an impact in island-based responses, say Grant Dawson and Michael Court

Online learning in lockdown ................... 86Anne Garçon contends that the need for local humanitarian action is greater than ever and the demand for easily accessible online learning is growing as people adjust to new ways of life

The future of emergency services ........... 88Next Generation 112 incorporates new technologies to revolutionise the work of emergency services, reports Beatriz Peon

The critical communications agenda ....... 90Mladen Vratonjić describes the work of the Critical Communications Association, which works to advance the quality of wireless communications

Drones and humanitarian missions .......... 92Drones can enhance the safety of citizens and responders and increase operational effectiveness. They are an essential part of the public safety response toolbox, according to Charles Werner

The drone threat landscape ................... 94Drones can bring innumerable benefi ts, but this could come at a price. Andrew Staniforth looks at the development of rules and systems to govern their use

RegularsEvents................................................ 96Frontline ............................................ 98Claire Sanders speaks to Chris Sheldrick, CEO and Founder of what3words, to fi nd out how businesses and emergency services make use of its technology

Crises have a way of exacerbating underlying vulnerabilities. Once the

protective surface has been flayed from society, its pre-existing conditions are exposed and rendered more acute.

Authors in this edition warn how Covid-19 lays bare inequity, inequality and poverty; the virus is not indiscriminate. And when ingrained injustices reach a peak, righteous anger and frustration inevitably spill over into discord, presenting an opening for those who seek to profi t from inflaming societal division.

The Covid-19 crisis – which has taken so many lives and wreaked such misery, fear and pain – raises questions about humanity’s ability to work together against common, global threats. With a few notable exceptions, the virus seems to have caught governments on the back foot, illustrated by a failure to understand the full cascading consequences and potential systemic nature of a pandemic.

Perhaps the fi rst mistake of many was an initial inclination to treat this as a ‘health’ emergency, failing to appreciate how interdependencies allow the virus to rampage across all layers of a society – from individuals and communities, to livelihoods, businesses, economies and supply chains – calling our very values and global models of co-operation into question.

Another glaring omission is evident – where is resilience? Why is the voice of emergency management unheeded by so many at the top levels of governance and the public alike? On p8, Eric Russell attempts to fi nd answers, while on p42 Paolo Garonna explores how science and its global institutions have been devalued and exploited – to the extent of making them viewed as irrelevant in some quarters.

How are we going to cope when larger, more interconnected and destructive crises sweep our way? The answer must not lie in retreating into conflict and hostility. But we cannot come out of this as we were before, and this may be a good thing, as Marcus Coleman notes on p46. We can transform tragedy into opportunity for all. We can examine our global institutions, empowering them to act with authority and universal legitimacy, while maintaining vigilant oversight. We can place our resilience experts where they should be – trusted, experienced voices, whose knowledge is valued and respected at the very highest levels.

The alternative is to retreat into narrow, nationalistic opportunism, privilege and self-interest, sticking tiny plasters on the exposed, weeping wounds of our global society.

Surely we can do better than this?

contents comment

Science on the front line p42 Telemedicine innovation p70

CRISISRESPONSE

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Cover story: Covid-19: A snapshot of fatality rates March 31 – May 9, 2020 (USA, UK, Italy, Spain, South Korea)

Cover image: Gracie Broom

� omas Kuhlenbeck | Ikon Images Gracie Broom

Climate change in the time of coronavirusAlice C Hill and William Kakenmaster warn that although the current pandemic has seen the largest annual decrease in carbon emissions in recorded history, we cannot divert focus from the crucial eff orts needed to reduce emissions permanently. We must prepare for – and adapt to – the eff ects of climate change

In the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, people have found cause for optimism when it comes to the environment. Wildlife increased in Venice’s canals, which are

running clearer thanks to Italy’s shutdown. Particulate matter declined in Delhi, Kolkata, and Bangalore as the Indian economy slowed. Levels of nitrogen dioxide – emitted by cars, power plants, and industrial manufacturing – fell drastically during the quarantine in Wuhan, China. Even the smoggy Los Angeles skies cleared substantially since California’s stay-at-home order.

� e current pandemic has also seen the largest annual decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – the primary cause of climate change – in recorded history. � e International Energy Agency (IEA)estimates that 2020 will see an eight per cent drop in CO2 emissions compared with 2019. Considering the world needs to reduce its emissions by about 7.6 per cent per year through to 2030 to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, this seems like good news.

But as many have pointed out, the decline in harmful greenhouse gas emissions will likely prove temporary. As the Covid-19 crisis abates, countries will seek to jumpstart their economies, which will drive emissions upward and lead to continued temperature rise. And even if Covid-19 brings a permanent reduction in the � ow of emissions, the world will still need to contend with the e� ects of past emissions. Most CO2 gas remains in the atmosphere for between 20 to 200 years, so the cumulative stock of emissions drives climate change, not just emissions � ows. � is means that a certain amount of climate change is ‘baked in’, owing to greenhouse gases already released into the atmosphere.

To avoid the worst impacts of climate, the world must continue to reduce its emissions

by about the same levels seen during Covid-19 on an annual basis through the next decade according to the UN Environment Programme.

People should, of course, celebrate clean air and water during this crisis. But these welcome reminders of a healthy environment cannot divert focus from the crucial e� orts needed to reduce emissions permanently, as well as prepare for – and adapt to – the e� ects of climate change. Much as we cannot allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good, we cannot allow the immediate to become the enemy of the urgent.

Global emissions of heat-trapping gases have grown rapidly in recent years. Scientists at the Mauna Loa Observatory have measured the atmospheric concentration of CO2, water

vapour and methane since the 1950s. Far from any major landmass, Mauna Loa lies 11,161 feet above sea level in Hawaii, and is an ideal location for observing changes in the atmosphere. In this pristine site high above the clouds, scientists have observed a dramatic rise in atmospheric CO2 over the past few decades. As of 1958, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 gas stood at just 315 parts per million (ppm). In 2013, some four decades later, that number had jumped to 400ppm, the highest levels of atmospheric CO2 detected in at least 800,000 years. Five years later, CO2 levels had climbed to 410ppm. And, as of April 30, 2020, in the throes of the coronavirus pandemic, CO2 levels registered 417ppm.

Rising emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have caused the Earth to warm by about 1°C since the 1880s, when modern temperature records began. Every one of the past three decades has been warmer on average than any prior decade since 1850. � ese rising temperatures bring severe e� ects – rising sea levels, more intense tropical storms, more extreme heat, more severe droughts and more intense wild� res – and are likely continue to do so in the future. Importantly, a growing area of scienti� c research is tying the causes and severity of particular extreme weather events to climate change.

� is area of research, called attribution science, has found that climate change directly worsened some events and caused others entirely.

Studies published in 2017 and 2018 found that rising temperatures owing to climate change increased precipitation from Hurricane Harvey by anywhere from eight to 38 per cent. Other research has found that as much as half of all acreage burned in US wild� res since 1984 can be attributed to climate change. In 2018, the American Meteorological Society found that a marine heatwave o� the coast of Australia in 2017 could not

have occurred without climate change. � ese climate-worsened extremes pose an urgent threat to economies and infrastructure that demands urgent action around the world.

As global temperatures surge seemingly beyond control, the US remains woefully unprepared for the accelerating e� ects of climate change owing, in part, to its vulnerable infrastructure. � e American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) currently rates the resilience and performance of US infrastructure as a D+, up from a D in 2013. US infrastructure has not received anything above a D since 1988, when it earned a C-. � e sorry state of infrastructure makes it vulnerable to the punishing impacts of climate change that the


The current pandemic has, unfortunately, led to the placement of even more critical infrastructure in areas at high risk of fl ooding in the USA

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country will face in the years and decades ahead. Consider the threats posed by � oods to

dams and water treatment facilities. � e US has approximately 90,000 dams, many of which face growing � ood risks from increasing precipitation extremes and storm intensity brought by climate change. � e ASCE has identi� ed more than 15,000 US dams as ‘high-hazard potential’, meaning that their failure could cause loss of life or signi� cant economic damage. Moreover, fully 70 per cent of dams will be over 50 years old by 2025, exceeding their expected service life. � ese dams were not designed to withstand the impacts of climate change, and the estimated rehabilitation cost runs over $70 billion. As bigger storms occur and more extreme precipitation falls, the risk of catastrophic dam failure grows.

Water treatment facilities also face signi� cant risks from climate change-aggravated � ooding. Typically, these facilities are sited close to bodies of water and at low elevations for water collection and discharge purposes. However, this leaves the infrastructure vulnerable to increasing risks associated with � ooding from sea level rise and tropical storm surges. As with dams, the failure of water treatment plants owing to � ooding can cause severe economic damage. In 2012, roughly 11 billion gallons of raw and partially treated sewage spilled into waterways and city streets after water treatment plants failed in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Virginia. Over 90 per cent of the spill volume was a direct result of damage caused by storm surge and � ooding during Hurricane Sandy, while the minority came from knock-on e� ects like equipment failure and power losses. Estimates of repairing the damage caused to water treatment facilities in New York alone exceeded $1 billion, and that does not account for the money needed to build resilience into the systems that failed.

� e current pandemic has, unfortunately, led to the placement of even more critical infrastructure in areas at high risk of � ooding in the US. As communities frantically sought additional hospital beds for those testing positive for Covid-19, FEMA urged local o� cials to locate temporary medical facilities away from � ood-risk areas. FEMA noted that patients su� ering from Covid-19 might lack su� cient mobility to: “Avoid injury or death during a � ood.” But some local o� cials ended up locating temporary medical facilities in � ood areas. For example, the Miami Convention Center, which sits within the mandatory evacuation zone for a Category 1 hurricane, temporarily converted into an emergency hospital with 450 beds.

In 2018, the IPCC issued its special report

on global warming, urging immediate action to limit warning to 1.5˚C to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change. A year later, the Global Commission on Adaptation

– chaired by Bill Gates, Ban Ki-Moon, and Kristalina Georgieva – concluded that it was time for a “revolution in planning” to address the world’s “gravely insu� cient” climate adaptation e� orts. With the onset of Covid-19, the world is at risk of having the immediate crisis overtake the urgent challenge of climate change. � e postponement of the 2020 UN Climate Change conference is a worrying sign that this shift may have already begun. We simply cannot a� ord to ignore climate change.

Instead, global leaders should view the pandemic as an opportunity to recover in ways that reduce the threat. As urged at the 11th Petersburg Climate Dialogue held virtually in April, climate action must play a role in the multi-trillion-dollar stimulus programmes created in response to the pandemic. Focusing on climate change now could, as UN Secretary-General António Guterres observed, lead to: “A healthier and more resilient world for everyone.” � at means working to prepare for the unavoidable impacts of climate change, while redoubling e� orts – even in the midst of the pandemic – to avoid the unmanageable climate impacts that unchecked emissions will bring.

Sources� Bruton J (March, 2020): Nature Is Taking Back Venice: Wildlife Returns to Tourist-Free City, � e Guardian;� Wright W (April, 2020): � e World’s Largest Coronavirus Lockdown Is Having a Dramatic Impact on Pollution in India, CNN;� Davies C (March, 2020): Dramatic Fall in China Pollution Levels ‘Partly Related’ to Coronavirus, � e Guardian;� Newburger E, Je� rey A (April, 2020): Photos Show Impact of Temporary Air Pollution Drops across the World from Coronavirus Lockdown, CNBC;� Ludden J, Brady J (April, 2020): Greenhouse Gas Emissions Predicted to Fall Nearly 8 per cent — Largest Decrease Ever, NPR;� United Nations Environment Programme (2019): Emissions Gap Report;� Villareal D (July, 2011): Understanding GHG Emissions: Stock vs Flows, State of the Planet;

� Keeling C D, Piper S C, Bacastow R B, Wahlen M, Whorf T P, Heimann M, and Meijer H A (2001): Exchanges of Atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 with the Terrestrial Biosphere and Oceans from 1978 to 2000, I Global Aspects, SIO Reference Series, No. 01-06, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego;� Merzdorf J (May, 2019): New Studies Increase Con� dence in NASA’s Measure of Earth’s Temperature, NASA Feature;� IPCC (2014): Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri R K and Meyer LA eds), Geneva, Switzerland;

� Risser M D and Wehner MF (2017): Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey, Geophysical Research Letters 44, no. 24;� van Oldenborgh G J, van der Wiel

K, Sebastian A, Singh R, Arrighi J, Otto F, Haustein K, Li S, Vecchi G, and Cullen H (2017): Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017, Environmental Research Letters 12;� Wang S, Zhao L, Yoon J, Klotzbach P, and

Gillies R R (2018): Quantitative Attribution of Climate E� ects on Hurricane Harvey’s Extreme Rainfall in Texas, Environmental Research Letters 13;� Abatzoglou J T and Park Williams A (2016): Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wild� re across Western US Forests, PNAS 113, no. 42;� Herring S C, Christidis N, Hoell A, Hoerling M P, and Stott P A, Eds (2019): Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (1), //doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2017.1;� American Society of Civil Engineers (2017): Infrastructure Report Card: A Comprehensive Analysis of America’s Infrastructure;� (2019): Task Committee of the Association of State Dam Safety O� cials, � e Cost of Rehabilitating Our Nation’s Dams: A Methodology, Estimate, and Proposed Funding Mechanisms; � Kenward A, Yawitz D, and Raja U (2013): Sewage Over� ows from Hurricane Sandy, Princeton, Climate Central;� Federal Emergency Management Agency (April 2020): Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: Floodplain Considerations for Temporary Critical Facilities;� Frank T (April, 2020): Virus Hospitals Occupy Flood Zones despite Warnings, E&E News.

AuthorsALICE C HILL is senior fellow for climate change policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, co-author of Building a Resilient Tomorrow: How to Prepare

for the Coming Climate Disruption (available on Amazon), and a Member of CRJ’s Advisory Panel

WILLIAM KAKENMASTER is a researcher focused on democracy, democratisation, and climate change

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