credit suisse monthly survey of real estate agents results june 2013
DESCRIPTION
This is the monthly results published by Credit Suisse on their survey of real estate agents throughout the U.S. June 2013 results.TRANSCRIPT
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CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES (USA) LLC
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-
11
Dec-
11
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-
12
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
Nov-
12
Dec-
12
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice In
dex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Home prices continued to increase through June, as sellers capitalize on healthy demand and a lack of competing listings
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July 9, 2013
Daniel Oppenheim, CFA
Homebuilding & Building Products
212-325-5726
Michael Dahl
212-325-5882
William Alexis
212-538-3992
Monthly Survey of Real Estate Agents June 2013
Source: Credit Suisse
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
Nov-
11
Dec-
11
Jan-1
2
Feb-1
2
Mar-
12
Apr-
12
May-
12
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
Nov-
12
Dec-
12
Jan-1
3
Feb-1
3
Mar-
13
Apr-
13
May-
13
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
Our traffic index moderated, but remains at healthy levels as agents note urgency upon initial rise in rates
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June 13 Slide 2
June Survey of Real Estate Agents:
Rising Rates Scare Buyers...Into Acting; Inventory Remains Lim iting
Traffic remains healthy in the face of rising mortgage rates, continuing to push prices higher: While there were spotty reports of some buyers being turned off by the sharp increase in mortgage rates, the majority of agents comments across markets said the move is driving a heightened sense of urgency among buyers, who fear missing out if
they wait. More often, comments in the markets with lower traffic readings pointed to frustrations over an insufficient
supply of quality listings, as well as agents having higher expectations (so that levels which would have warranted a
more than expected response several months ago is now a meets expectations). This is leading to higher prices, though we would expect to see a moderation in demand and home prices if rates rise too much further in the near term.
Prices march higher; index hits another new high: Our home price index increased to 87.3 in June from 84.9 in May, with rising prices noted in all 40 markets and an index of 80 or higher in 35 of the 40 markets. This continues to
point to broad price appreciation, though we still note further increases in our index will be difficult to achieve from these
high levels. Markets in California and Florida led the pack along with Vegas, Phoenix, Houston, and Seattle.
Modest decline in our traffic index not bad, all things considered: Our buyer traffic index edged down to 60.5 in June from 63.4 in May, remaining at levels indicative of traffic exceeding agents expectations for this time of year. Only seeing a slight decline is encouraging to us, given how quickly mortgage rates moved up during the month. Atlanta, New
York Metro Area, Orlando, Washington D.C., and Detroit were among the weakest markets, while San Diego, Inland
Empire, Houston and Dallas were the strongest.
Tight supplies persist, contributing to a shorter time needed to sell: Our home listings index fell to 61.8 in June from 67.1 in May, pointing to overall inventory levels continuing to remain tight, though more markets showed signs of
sellers beginning to emerge. Meanwhile, the time needed to sell continued to trend lower, as our index came in at 75.9
vs. 81.1 in May. This is a positive for pricing, though increasing inventory levels could temper the pace of recent gains.
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 59.0 74.6 52.4 74.7 71.5
Feb-13 65.1 79.3 51.5 72.7 75.4
Mar-13 66.1 83.7 53.0 71.7 80.8
Apr-13 64.4 84.8 52.9 73.7 81.0
May-13 63.4 84.9 54.1 67.1 81.1
Jun-13 60.5 87.3 54.1 61.8 75.9
Point Change (2.9) 2.4 0.1 (5.3) (5.2)
39%
43%
18%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
76%
12% 9%
22%
68%
30%
2%
20%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
Source: Credit Suisse
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June 13 Slide 3
Table of Contents
Key Housing Markets: Key Housing Markets Continued:
4 Atlanta, Georgia 26 Orlando, Florida
5 Austin, Texas 27 Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey
6 Baltimore, Maryland 28 Phoenix, Arizona
7 Boston, Massachusetts 29 Portland, Oregon
8 Charleston, South Carolina 30 Raleigh, North Carolina
9 Charlotte, North Carolina 31 Richmond, Virginia
10 Chicago, Illinois 32 Sacramento, California
11 Cincinnati, Ohio 33 San Antonio, Texas
12 Columbus, Ohio 34 San Diego, California
13 Dallas, Texas 35 San Francisco, California
14 Denver, Colorado 36 Sarasota, Florida
15 Detroit, Michigan 37 Seattle, Washington
16 Fort Myers, Florida 38 St. Louis, Missouri
17 Houston, Texas 39 Tampa, Florida
18 Inland Empire (Riverside-San Bernardino), California 40 Tucson, Arizona
19 Jacksonville, Florida 41 Virginia Beach, Virginia
20 Las Vegas, Nevada 42 Washington, D.C.
21 Los Angeles, California 43 Wilmington, North Carolina
22 Miami, Florida Appendix:
23 Minneapolis, Minnesota 45 Historical Trends by Market
24 Nashville, Tennessee 50 Agent Recommendations
25 New York-Northern New Jersey 52 Survey Methodology
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June 13 Slide 4
Atlanta, GA Traffic Below Expectations as Frustrated Buyers Take a Summer Break
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(9,146 single-family building permits in 2012, 5th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Buyers are frustrated due to the shortage of homes for sale on the market.
Fewer buyers. Buyers do not have a sense of urgency..
Low inventory levels/purchase options.
In many areas of the Atlanta market, there are many more buyers than there are properties for sale. I think that rising
interest rates are also getting many buyers who have been
on the fence to get more motivated to buy sooner, rather than later.
Rates edging up has some buyers jumping off the fence.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic fell in June and dipped below agents expectations, as our index fell to 43 from 53 (below a neutral
50). Most agents cited low supply, whether they noted
stronger or weaker trends. Those who said traffic weakened
said buyers have become frustrated and are taking a break,
while others said the lack of supply is creating urgency.
Home prices increased again, as our price index came in at 80 vs. 93 in May, still well above a neutral 50.
Inventory levels fell, but there are signs that sellers are becoming more willing and able to sell at current levels.
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60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
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Sep-1
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Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 45.5 36.4 45.5 90.9 59.1
Feb-13 73.1 84.6 42.9 92.9 76.9
Mar-13 63.6 83.3 50.0 75.0 87.5
Apr-13 53.6 82.1 46.4 57.1 71.4
May-13 53.1 93.3 43.3 65.6 81.3
Jun-13 42.9 80.0 35.7 56.7 70.0
Point Change (10.3) (13.3) (7.6) (9.0) (11.3)
21%
43%
36%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
67%
29%
13%
27%
71%
33%
7%0%
53%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
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June 13 Slide 5
Austin, TX Traffic Dips but Remains at Solid Levels, Supported by a Healthy Local Economy
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(7,970 single-family permits in 2012, 7th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
It's all about interest rates and diminishing supply.
Builders prices have risen too high and too fast, so this housing boom is leaving re-sales as our only avenue.
A little more inventory is creeping on the market.
We're on a roll. While there is no price bubble, our housing market is strong and solid. Qualified buyers rule. Because of
multiple offers, we are asked to provide proof of funding not only for the mortgage, but also for the down payment to
give the offer more credibility. Builders are still blowing
through any inventory left.
Our Take:
Traffic appeared to fall seasonally in June, but remained above agents expectations. Our traffic index fell to 63 from 81 in May, still above a neutral 50. Continued job growth, rising
rates, and tight inventory levels were all cited as primary
drivers.
Home prices continued to march higher, as our home price index came in at a still-strong 86 vs. 100 in May.
Low inventory levels and a shorter time to sell continue to point to rising prices in the months ahead, though more sellers will
likely start to emerge.
0
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 57.1 82.1 57.1 64.3 75.0
Feb-13 76.7 93.3 66.7 85.7 93.3
Mar-13 76.7 96.7 63.3 63.3 93.3
Apr-13 81.8 95.8 69.2 76.9 92.3
May-13 80.8 100.0 63.6 75.0 87.5
Jun-13 63.3 85.7 65.4 60.7 76.7
Point Change (17.4) (14.3) 1.7 (14.3) (10.8)
40%
47%
13%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
71%
0%7%
29%
69%
33%
0%
31%
60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
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June 13 Slide 6
Baltimore, MD Demand Remains at Tepid Levels; Economic and Affordability Concerns Weigh
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(3,876 single-family permits in 2012, 30th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Buyers think that prices have risen more than they have and that interest rates may not be as good as they were several
months ago.
Severe lack of inventory.
Interest rates starting to go up; this has scared buyers into making decisions.
Buyers are still out there looking at new inventory.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained weaker than expected in June, as our traffic index fell to 30 from 39 in May, below a neutral 50.
Agents responses were similar to last months, centering around the relatively weak local economy and employment
conditions along with the recent increase in prices and rates.
Home prices increased again despite the weaker traffic, as our price index increased to 100 from 83. However, better demand
will likely be needed to sustain these increases.
Inventory levels flattened out in June, while the time needed to sell decreased.
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 33.3 55.6 62.5 87.5 72.2
Feb-13 66.7 58.3 50.0 91.7 91.7
Mar-13 61.1 80.0 55.6 75.0 65.0
Apr-13 25.0 100.0 50.0 100.0 87.5
May-13 38.9 83.3 43.8 66.7 88.9
Jun-13 30.0 100.0 60.0 50.0 70.0
Point Change (8.9) 16.7 16.3 (16.7) (18.9)
20%
20%60%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
100%
0%
20%
0%
80%
20%
0%
20%
60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
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June 13 Slide 7
Boston, MA Buyer Urgency On the Rise Alongside Higher Rates
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(4,075 single-family permits in 2012, 28th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
A slight rise in interest rates helped fuel an already active market.
More inventory has come on the market allowing buyers something to buy.
Buyers are jumping in to buy because they are hearing interest rates are going up.
Development of the waterfront district is spurring strong trends in South Boston.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic remained at similar, solid levels in June vs. May, as our traffic index edged up to 68 from 67 (above a neutral
reading of 50). Agents cited increased buyer urgency as
mortgage rates began to increase, while additional inventory in
some areas has provided more options.
Home prices increased broadly in June, as our price index came in at 93 vs. 92, with almost all agents noting higher
prices.
Lower inventory levels and a shorter time to sell are positive leading indicators for near-term home price trends.
0
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
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No
v-1
1
De
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1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
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Jun-1
2
Jul-
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Aug-1
2
Sep-1
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Oct-
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No
v-1
2
De
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2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 61.1 80.6 52.8 76.3 81.6
Feb-13 73.3 86.7 53.6 73.3 76.7
Mar-13 80.8 88.5 65.4 60.7 82.1
Apr-13 75.0 91.7 60.0 79.2 75.0
May-13 66.7 91.7 59.1 70.8 91.7
Jun-13 67.9 92.9 53.6 67.9 82.1
Point Change 1.2 1.2 (5.5) (3.0) (9.5)
43%
50%
7%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
86%
7% 7%14%
79%
21%
0%14%
71%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 8
Charleston, SC Demand Treads Water at the Start of Summer; Prices Continue to Rise
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(3,128 single-family permits in 2012, 34th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Sales had been increasing the last several months and now mid-June starting to slow down again.
I do not see an increase in buyers. I have no REO buyers, just two that are interested in buying. Buyers are wishy-
washy just like last year is my experience.
Prices seem to be rising along with mortgage rates.
Appraisers are doing better.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic slipped in June vs. May, though levels still met agents expectations for this time of year. Our traffic index registered a neutral 50, down from 64 in May. Agents noted a
sequential slowing and suggested buyers remain a bit hesitant
as rates and prices move higher.
Our home price index increased to 92 from 86 in May, indicating prices continued to rise in June.
Inventory levels declined again, while it also took less time to sell a home both are positive indicators for home prices.
0
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40
50
60
70
Ju
n-1
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Ju
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Oct-
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Ja
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Ap
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Ma
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Oct-
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No
v-1
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De
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Ja
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b-1
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Ma
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3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
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3
Ju
n-1
3
Bu
ye
r T
raff
ic In
de
x
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ho
me
Pri
ce I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 25.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 62.5
Feb-13 25.0 66.7 50.0 50.0 37.5
Mar-13 57.1 85.7 50.0 57.1 78.6
Apr-13 33.3 66.7 50.0 66.7 66.7
May-13 64.3 85.7 50.0 64.3 78.6
Jun-13 50.0 91.7 58.3 66.7 58.3
Point Change (14.3) 6.0 8.3 2.4 (20.2)
34%
33%
33%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
83%
17% 17%17%
50% 50%
0%
33% 33%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 9
Charlotte, NC More Buyers Get Off the Fence as They Fear Missing the Boat
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(6,704 single-family permits in 2012, 10th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Seems like the market has leveled off a bit since the spring flurry. Mortgage rates moved up as anticipated.
Rising interest rates are getting buyers off the fence, but lack of inventory is frustrating in the better school districts.
Rising interest rates have spurred buyers to search for housing.
Summer is always a bit slower but with the low inventory, buyers are regularly checking the market for their dream
home.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic levels remained healthy in June, as our traffic index came in at 60 vs. 67 in May, still indicating levels above
agents expectations. Agents suggested the combination of low inventory levels and rising mortgage rates is fueling buyer
urgency.
Home prices increased again in June, as our home price index increased to 90 from 88 in May.
Inventory levels and the time to sell trends remained favorable in June, pointing to higher home prices in the months ahead.
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 75.0 85.0 54.5 86.4 75.0
Feb-13 86.4 81.8 45.5 72.7 63.6
Mar-13 90.9 100.0 63.6 72.7 95.0
Apr-13 65.4 83.3 46.2 46.2 73.1
May-13 66.7 87.5 66.7 62.5 91.7
Jun-13 60.0 90.0 70.0 65.0 70.0
Point Change (6.7) 2.5 3.3 2.5 (21.7)
30%
60%
10%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
80%
0%10%
20%
60%
40%
0%
40%50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 10
Chicago, IL Pent-Up Demand Emerging as Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Increase
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(5,665 single-family permits in 2012, 14th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Has slowed down a bit from hot spring, but this is typical for end-of-school-year lull.
Increased comfort; market shifting so clients want to beat the increasing prices; still great interest rates.
The rise in interest rates is finally making the buyers buy, plus many people who sold 5 years ago short are now back
in the market.
No fresh inventory...it's the same junk that's been on the market for months! Higher rates spooked fence sitters...now
they're waiting for rates to go back down.
Our Take:
Traffic remained at solid levels above agents expectations in June, as our traffic index edged down to 64 from 68 but
remained above a neutral 50. Agents noted a growing sense of
urgency among buyers following the rise in prices and now
rates, though there is still a lack of quality inventory holding the
market back.
Home prices continued to recover in June, as our home price index was essentially unchanged at 80 vs. 81 in May.
Lower inventory levels and a shorter time to sell should continue to support higher prices in the coming months.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 60.6 62.0 50.0 78.0 59.2
Feb-13 68.3 60.9 57.4 64.1 68.8
Mar-13 63.5 76.4 51.6 77.8 75.0
Apr-13 59.6 70.0 41.7 61.5 73.1
May-13 68.3 81.3 50.0 68.8 77.4
Jun-13 64.0 80.0 45.2 76.0 79.2
Point Change (4.3) (1.3) (4.8) 7.3 1.7
44%
40%
16%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
68%
19%8%
24%
71%
25%
8% 10%
67%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 11
Cincinnati, OH Price Gains Appear to Moderate as Higher Rates Pressure Traffic
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(2,668 single-family permits in 2012, 47th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Traffic is still pretty good; but buyers are pausing before making a move due to interest rate hikes. It's not that mid
4's are so high; it's how quickly it happened.
Improved confidence in the market.
Buyers are on vacation.
Baby boomers are out.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic levels declined in June and fell short of agents expectations for this time of year, as our index fell to 33 from
50 in May (below a neutral reading of 50). Agents cited a
pause in buying decisions given the sharpness of the recent
move higher in rates.
Home prices increased, though our reading dipped sharply to 58 in June from 79 in May, suggesting the gains were not as
broad-based as in recent months.
Inventory levels continued to trend lower, though our time to sell index fell closer to a neutral level.
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 71.4 57.1 42.9 92.9 71.4
Feb-13 70.0 60.0 50.0 60.0 80.0
Mar-13 66.7 58.3 58.3 83.3 83.3
Apr-13 50.0 81.3 50.0 81.3 81.3
May-13 50.0 78.6 57.1 57.1 71.4
Jun-13 33.3 58.3 50.0 66.7 58.3
Point Change (16.7) (20.2) (7.1) 9.5 (13.1)
0%
67%
33%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
33%
17%
33%
50%
67%
17%17% 17%
50%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 12
Columbus, OH Sellers Take Advantage of Increased Buyer Urgency and Limited Competition
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(2,899 single-family permits in 2012, 38th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Low inventory has buyers scrambling.
Lack of inventory offers little choice. Some buyers are holding off until the market opens up a little more.
Increased buyer confidence, fear of increasing interest rates, and lower levels of inventory are leading to buyer
competition.
Appraisers seem to be a bit behind the price curve.
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index jumped to 70 in June from 50 in May, pointing to better traffic levels, ahead of agents expectations for this time of year (a reading of 50). While the lack of
inventory is still somewhat limiting, agents said buyers are
scrambling to find homes and want to get in before mortgage rates increase much further.
Every agent surveyed pointed to higher home prices over the past 30 days, as our price index increased to 100 from 83.
Inventory levels increased again, though, which could slow price gains.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Bu
ye
r T
raff
ic In
de
x
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jun-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ho
me
Pri
ce I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 50.0 75.0 50.0 66.7 83.3
Feb-13 57.1 68.8 42.9 68.8 87.5
Mar-13 40.0 60.0 40.0 80.0 90.0
Apr-13 68.8 78.6 50.0 78.6 92.9
May-13 50.0 83.3 41.7 41.7 75.0
Jun-13 70.0 100.0 40.0 40.0 90.0
Point Change 20.0 16.7 (1.7) (1.7) 15.0
60%20%
20%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
100%
20%
0%0%
80%
20%
0% 0%
80%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 13
Dallas, TX Buyers Continue to Clamor for Listings and Sellers are Capitalizing on the Strong Demand
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(17,821 single-family permits in 2012, 2nd largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Buyers and sellers are ready and thinking this is a great time to buy or sell. They are uncertain how long the window
will last and want to capitalize on the current market.
More buyers, jobs, confidence and the fear that rates will go up.
Rising interest rates, and fast growing population base!
Buyers are coming out of foreclosure ready to buy again.
Lack of renovated housing in higher price ranges.
Inventory is low. New home builders need to start building ASAP.
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index bounced back a bit in June after declining in April and May, pointing to traffic levels remaining
well above expectations. Our index improved to 70 from 65.
Agents noted increased confidence from both buyers and
sellers, along with healthy local job growth and a desire to lock
in current prices and rates.
Agents continued to point to broad price gains, as our price index came in at 87 in June vs. 90 in May.
Rising home prices seem to finally be encouraging more sellers, as our home listings index fell closer to a neutral level.
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 56.3 81.3 50.0 75.0 65.6
Feb-13 70.8 79.2 50.0 75.0 79.2
Mar-13 91.7 83.3 54.5 70.8 95.8
Apr-13 80.0 96.7 67.9 78.6 90.0
May-13 65.0 90.0 66.7 65.0 100.0
Jun-13 70.0 86.7 53.3 56.7 93.3
Point Change 5.0 (3.3) (13.3) (8.3) (6.7)
46%
47%
7%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
73%
13%7%
27%
67%
0%0%
20%
93%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 14
Denver, CO More Inventory Coming to Market; Potential to Slow Price Appreciation in Coming Months
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(5,616 single-family permits in 2012, 15th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Inventory is finally up a little, but no slowdown in bidding wars on the low end.
We have been working the price range $150,000 to $350,000 the past 30 days. Homes are under contract in
days with multiple offers. It is a combination of pent up
demand and low interest rates.
Rates are creeping up and all those that were on the fence are now in the mood!
New home communities are popping up, but there is a lack of innovation and I'm seeing many buyers choose resale.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic continued to exceed agents expectations, as our traffic index slipped to 64 from 69 but remains above a neutral
50. Agents noted more inventory coming to market to meet the
healthy demand levels, while buyers continue to look to lock in
deals before prices and rates increase too much.
Home prices increased again, as our home price index was little changed at a strong 87 in June vs. 86 in May.
Inventory increased in June, the first increase seen in our survey in two years. A further increase in inventory would likely
slow the pace of price appreciation over the coming months.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 69.6 82.1 51.9 76.8 76.8
Feb-13 73.9 87.5 52.2 84.8 93.8
Mar-13 70.8 89.6 54.5 69.6 76.1
Apr-13 75.0 93.8 65.0 77.1 79.2
May-13 68.8 85.7 60.9 56.5 82.6
Jun-13 63.2 86.8 44.1 28.9 76.3
Point Change (5.6) 1.1 (16.8) (27.6) (6.3)
42%
42%
16%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
79%
18%5%
16%
76%
37%
5% 6%
58%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 15
Detroit, MI Buyers Still Active in their Search, though Some Pull Back due to Lack of Inventory
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(4,103 single-family permits in 2012, 27th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
The shortage of inventory is frustrating buyers . There are fewer parties interested right now.
Lower re-sale inventory is causing some buyers to shift into the new home market.
Higher home prices and rising mortgage rates have spurred buyers into action.
Inventories continue to fall while prices rise. Many buyers feel theyve missed the boat and want to get in the game before they also miss out on low interest rates.
Our Take:
Traffic edged lower again in June, but levels still came in and met agents expectations, as our traffic index came in at 48 from 54 in May. Agents indicated that while some buyers were
upset with the lack of inventory, others were motivated by
higher prices and fears over rising interest rates.
Home prices continued to move higher, as our home price index came in at 90 from 88 in May.
Inventories continued to decline, though agents indicated more sellers are taking advantage of rising prices. Meanwhile, the
time to sell fell further, a positive for future pricing.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 40.0 66.7 60.7 86.7 63.3
Feb-13 58.3 86.1 55.6 75.0 79.4
Mar-13 67.5 85.0 55.3 72.5 84.2
Apr-13 57.1 89.3 57.7 78.6 82.1
May-13 53.8 87.5 45.5 83.3 83.3
Jun-13 47.5 90.0 50.0 60.0 73.7
Point Change (6.3) 2.5 4.5 (23.3) (9.6)
25%
45%
30%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
80%
16% 11%20%
68%
32%
0%
16%
58%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 16
Ft. Myers, FL Low Inventory Continues to Motivate Buyers
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(1,806 single-family permits in 2012, 65th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Buyers are watching the market and see that prices are rising while inventories are falling. They want to get in on the
action.
Buyers are still active, even entering our slow season. The lack of inventory and steadily rising prices are making
multiple offers common.
The movement in interest rates is driving buyers into the market. They dont want to miss out.
Buyers are showing no quit this year. They are committed to securing a property.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic exceeded agents expectations again in June, as our index came in at 60 from 58 in May. Agents indicated that
low inventories, rising prices, and concerns over higher rates
all drew buyers into the market.
Home prices continued to improve in June, as our home price index increase to 83 from 75 in May (above a neutral reading
of 50).
We would expect prices to continue to improve, as our home listings index came in at 87 from 79 in May, pointing to fewer
listings, a positive for future pricing.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Bu
ye
r T
raff
ic In
de
x
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ho
me
Pri
ce I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 47.4 85.0 40.0 72.5 77.5
Feb-13 50.0 75.0 38.9 83.3 66.7
Mar-13 37.5 77.3 45.5 72.7 63.6
Apr-13 53.3 78.6 42.9 82.1 82.1
May-13 58.3 75.0 41.7 79.2 83.3
Jun-13 60.0 83.3 43.3 86.7 76.7
Point Change 1.7 8.3 1.7 7.5 (6.7)
54%
13%
33%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
67%
27%
7%
33%
60%
33%
0%
13%
60%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 17
Houston, TX Improving Local Economy Draws More Newcomers, Helps Keep Traffic Strong in June
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(28,568 single-family permits in 2012, largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
An improving economy, corporate relocations, and higher interest rates are helping to keep traffic in the area strong.
All kinds of buyers are getting off the fence because of rising prices and interest rates.
There is a shortage of homes for sale. Buyers recognize this and want to try and beat the crowd.
Buyers see conditions improving and are eager to get their hands on some property. Multiple offers on homes are
common.
Relocation traffic has picked up a great deal.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic dipped slightly in June, as our traffic index came in at 71 from 78 in May, though levels still beat expectations.
Agents indicated that the improving local economy continues
to attract newcomers, while also making buyers increasingly
confident in placing multiple offers on homes.
Agents again pointed to higher prices in June, as our price index came in at 92 from 97 in May, above a reading of 50.
Inventories and the time to sell both exhibited broad declines in June, suggesting that pricing will continue to improve in the
coming months (declines are a positive for future pricing).
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 61.9 83.3 45.2 76.2 87.5
Feb-13 77.8 81.6 50.0 78.9 77.8
Mar-13 62.5 79.2 45.8 92.3 83.3
Apr-13 91.7 86.8 47.4 78.9 89.5
May-13 77.8 97.2 62.5 91.2 88.2
Jun-13 71.4 92.3 66.7 88.5 96.2
Point Change (6.3) (4.9) 4.2 (2.7) 7.9
57%29%
14%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
85%
8%0%
15%
50%
8%0%
42%
92%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 18
Inland Empire, CA Traffic Improves as Low Inventories and Favorable Affordability Motivate Buyers
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(4,229 single-family permits in 2012, 26th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Due to a shortage of listings, prices are going up. Buyers are worried they will soon get priced out of the market.
Every month the story is the same. Inventory is low and buyers want to get in before it is too late.
Buyers realize that interest rates are still low and prices are still affordable. Inventory is extremely tight though and this
makes it tough for buyers to capitalize on opportunities.
Nearly half of my buyers are all cash.
It can still be tough to get buyers to the finish line because appraisals can still be an issue.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic was higher in June, as our traffic index increased to 75 from 63 in May, pointing to better than expected traffic.
Agents credited low inventories and affordability for the
positive effect on traffic, as buyers were said to not want to
miss out on deals.
Home prices continue to move even higher in June, as our home price index increased to 100 from 97 in May.
We expect prices to continue to increase, as our home listings and time to sell indexes pointed to declines in both metrics.
These declines are positive indicators for future pricing.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 70.8 83.3 45.5 95.8 70.8
Feb-13 63.6 81.8 59.1 85.0 86.4
Mar-13 71.1 89.5 41.7 76.3 77.8
Apr-13 65.0 90.0 50.0 90.0 80.0
May-13 63.2 97.4 61.1 84.2 92.1
Jun-13 75.0 100.0 45.8 87.5 95.8
Point Change 11.8 2.6 (15.3) 3.3 3.7
59%
33%
8%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
100%
25%
0%0%
58%
8%0%
17%
92%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 19
Jacksonville, FL Traffic Lower but Commentary Points to Continued Strength in June
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(4,582 single-family permits in 2012, 23rd largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Buyers want to take advantage of low interest rates now before both home prices and rates jump too high.
Traffic is still healthy because buyers are anticipating an increase in interest rates.
Large investors remain active in the marketplace.
There is a lot of traffic, but not a lot of listings. Some buyers want in before rates move too high, while many sellers have
their hands tied because their homes are underwater.
Weve seen slightly better traffic because of the move in rates.
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index fell to 55 from 71 in May, with levels still meeting expectations. However, commentary remained very
positive and we think the lower reading is a result of agents higher expectations. Agents highlighted continued demand
from investors and traditional buyers, who were driven by
lower inventories, higher prices and rates.
Home prices continued to increase in June, as our home price index came in at 75 from 71 in May.
Inventory was flat in June following months of declines, which suggests pressures in the market may soon begin to ease.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 75.0 75.0 35.7 75.0 62.5
Feb-13 68.8 87.5 43.8 87.5 93.8
Mar-13 66.7 91.7 58.3 83.3 91.7
Apr-13 68.8 87.5 37.5 81.3 78.6
May-13 71.4 71.4 50.0 71.4 71.4
Jun-13 55.0 75.0 45.0 50.0 75.0
Point Change (16.4) 3.6 (5.0) (21.4) 3.6
20%
70%
10%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
50%
30%
10%
50% 50%
30%
0%
20%
60%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 20
Las Vegas, NV Investors Dominate, Helping Keep Inventory Low, but Price out Traditional Buyers
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(6,112 single-family permits in 2012, 12th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Investment groups are still buying up the lower priced properties in bulk, helping to maintain the shortage of homes
for sale for traditional buyers.
Some buyers are starting to panic over higher rates. Many think 4.5% is too high how quickly we forget.
Buyers are feeling more confident about the housing market. Add in higher prices and rates and buyers are faster
to act.
Some of my buyers are frustrated with the lack of inventory and swiftly rising prices.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic fell slightly in June, coming in at 61 from 66 in May, though agents indicated levels still came in above
expectations. The lack of inventory remains the headline story,
as it draws some buyers to the market, while others prefer
more of a selection. Investors still remain very active.
Home prices continued to rise, as our home price index came in at 100 from 98 in May. Our price index has remained above
90 for six consecutive months.
Inventories fell further in May, as did the time to sell. These are both positive indicators for future pricing trends.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Bu
ye
r T
raff
ic In
de
x
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ho
me
Pri
ce I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 61.9 97.6 57.1 78.6 78.6
Feb-13 60.9 97.8 65.9 75.0 84.1
Mar-13 65.2 97.9 66.7 77.1 85.4
Apr-13 75.0 100.0 57.5 92.5 95.0
May-13 65.9 97.6 73.8 64.3 81.0
Jun-13 61.1 100.0 61.8 63.9 79.4
Point Change (4.8) 2.4 (12.0) (0.4) (1.5)
33%
56%
11%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
100%
18%6%0%
41%29%
0%
41%
65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 21
Los Angeles, CA Low Inventories cause Some Buyers to Pause, Pull Others off the Fence
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(4,921 single-family permits in 2012, 22nd largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Some buyers are taking a back seat until there is more inventory to choose from.
There is very little inventory. Cash buyers are still dominant and there are multiple offers on my listings. However, low
down payment buyers are being affected by higher rates.
There are buyers who are tired of looking for overpriced homes. They are still interested, but only willing to look if
they feel the price is justified.
There is no inventory and prices are still rising. This is still motivating some of my buyers to enter the market.
Our Take:
Our buyer traffic index came in at 63, down from 77 in May, but levels still exceeded agents expectations for this time of year. Agents indicated that while low inventories caused some
buyers to shy away, others cited it as a source of motivation,
especially as prices continued their upward trajectory.
Prices moved higher in June, as our home price index came in at 96 from 97 in May (any reading above 50).
Inventories and the time to sell both declined in June. We view these both as positive indicators for future pricing power.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 66.7 83.9 59.5 86.2 77.6
Feb-13 59.3 94.4 48.0 75.0 75.9
Mar-13 66.7 98.0 52.3 80.0 88.0
Apr-13 66.7 96.6 63.5 70.7 81.0
May-13 76.5 97.1 65.0 65.3 83.3
Jun-13 63.0 95.7 53.1 71.4 84.1
Point Change (13.4) (1.5) (11.9) 6.2 0.8
52%
22%
26%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
91%
13% 14%9%
69%
5%0%
19%
82%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 22
Miami, FL Motivation to Beat Higher Prices and Rates Drives Traffic in June
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(5,048 single-family permits in 2012, 21st largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Inventory is still very low, though prices are moving a bit too fast for some buyers to feel comfortable stepping in.
Traffic is still high, but buyers have also become much more demanding and want value for their money. Sellers are also
becoming unrealistic with their asking prices.
My listings increased slightly, but the move still wasnt enough to keep pace with the increase in demand. That is
still rising faster than inventory.
People are more positive on the economy. Rising prices and rates also create the need to buy now.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic fell in June, though levels still managed to beat expectations, as our traffic index came in at 64 from 76 in May.
Agents indicted that buyers were driven by low inventory,
higher prices and concerns about rising interest rates. Buyers
were also said to be more confident about the economy.
Home prices improved further, as our home price index came in at 86 (from 94 in May), still above a reading of 50.
Inventory was still lower in June, though the pressure could begin to ease, as our home listings index came at 65 from 73
in May. Meanwhile, the time to sell continued to decline.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 60.3 92.6 50.0 80.0 78.6
Feb-13 57.6 88.2 48.5 89.7 75.0
Mar-13 69.7 92.1 54.5 87.8 82.9
Apr-13 66.7 92.4 40.0 87.9 89.4
May-13 75.8 93.9 51.6 72.6 87.9
Jun-13 64.3 86.1 48.6 65.3 77.8
Point Change (11.5) (7.8) (3.0) (7.3) (10.1)
40%
49%
11%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
75%
14%6%
22%
74%
33%
3%11%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 23
Minneapolis, MN Low Inventories, Threat of Higher Rates Keep Urgency High in June
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(5,611 single-family permits in 2012, 16th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Traffic eased a bit, but I think it is mostly because of the summer.
Buyers want to lock in interest rates before it is too late.
People are excited to look because they are worried about higher interest rates and with low inventories, they are also
worried about higher home prices.
Inventory is down and prices are going higher while interest rates are still at attractive levels.
We are keeping busy with real buyers, not so many tire kickers.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic fell sharply in June, as our traffic index came in at 55 from 73 in May. However, levels still met agents expectations and commentary remained fairly positive. Agents
noted that buyers were motivated by low inventories and
higher rates/prices, while other agents highlighted that
demand was real and buyers werent window shopping.
Home prices continued to rise, as our home price index increased to 92 from 86 in May.
Inventory was lower, but more sellers are capitalizing on higher prices. Our home listings index came in at 61 from 83 in May.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0102030405060708090
100
Jun-1
1
Jul-
11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-
12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 57.4 83.3 48.6 84.7 81.9
Feb-13 64.3 87.9 42.3 89.3 84.5
Mar-13 52.9 80.6 47.2 69.4 77.8
Apr-13 60.0 92.9 42.9 78.6 92.9
May-13 73.1 88.5 41.7 83.3 88.5
Jun-13 55.3 92.1 52.8 60.5 84.2
Point Change (17.8) 3.6 11.1 (22.8) (4.3)
26%
58%
16%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
84%
11%5%
16%
72%
21%
0%
17%
74%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 24
Nashville, TN Buyers Driven to Market by Low Inventories, Rising Interest Rates, and Home Prices
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(5,343 single-family permits in 2012, 17th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Buyers are still waiting in line for listings, and when a good home does come to market it receives multiple offers.
Inventory is still very low.
Buyers feel the need to be careful with their bids. Inventory is so low that sellers are capitalizing and being aggressive
with their asking prices.
Buyers are worried about higher interest rates and they are making sure to look now before they feel rates are too high.
Prices keep getting better and buyers dont want to miss out on the improving environment.
Our Take:
Traffic fell slightly in June, but levels still beat agents expectations. Our traffic index came in at 68 from 73 in May.
Buyers were said to remain motivated by low inventories, and
the effect that higher rates and prices could have on
affordability.
Agents pointed to rising prices, as our home price index came in at 82, unchanged from our reading in May.
Inventories and the time to sell both declined in June. This is a positive indicator for future prices and suggests that urgency in
the market remains high.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Bu
ye
r T
raff
ic In
de
x
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-1
1
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ho
me
Pri
ce I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 61.1 77.8 68.8 66.7 72.2
Feb-13 83.3 83.3 50.0 70.8 83.3
Mar-13 75.0 70.8 70.8 91.7 83.3
Apr-13 80.8 73.1 65.4 53.8 88.5
May-13 72.7 81.8 68.2 72.7 86.4
Jun-13 68.2 81.8 70.0 72.7 86.4
Point Change (4.5) 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0
36%
64%
0%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
64%
0%9%
36%
60%
9%0%
40%
82%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 25
New York-Northern NJ Buyers Take a Summer Breather, Higher Rates Give and Take Away Traffic
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(6,794 single-family permits in 2012, 9th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Interest rates are rising and buyers are looking for bargains that just arent there anymore.
Seasonal pressures combined with higher rates have caused the pace of the market to level off.
Higher interest rates are causing some buyers to shy away from the market, but for others, the move higher is acting as
a motivator. Buyers want to act quickly before rates rise even
further.
Buyers concerns that rates will move higher, along with the lack of inventory, is keeping some buyers in the market.
Our Take:
Buyer traffic slipped in June, but still managed to meet agents expectations, as our traffic index came in at 47 from 60 in May
(in-line with a neutral reading). Agents noted that traffic eased
on seasonal factors and higher rates, though some were quick
to note that higher rates continue to bring buyers off the fence.
Home prices continued to improve in June, as our traffic index came in at 65 from 70 in May, above a reading of 50.
Inventories were flat in June, as we think more sellers are beginning to take advantage of the improved pricing
environment. Meanwhile, the time to sell edged lower.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Bu
yer
Tra
ffic
In
dex
50 - Exceeds Expectations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun-1
1
Jul-1
1
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Jan-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Apr-
12
Ma
y-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-1
2
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-
12
No
v-1
2
De
c-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Apr-
13
Ma
y-1
3
Jun-1
3
Ho
me P
rice I
nd
ex
50 - Higher than Prior Month
Month
Buyer Traffic
Index
Home Price
Index
Incentive
Index
Home Listings
Index
Time to Sell
Index
Jan-13 45.8 47.9 53.8 69.8 52.1
Feb-13 57.5 59.6 45.5 64.4 62.5
Mar-13 62.3 68.6 48.9 68.9 66.0
Apr-13 51.0 66.3 51.1 64.4 72.1
May-13 60.4 69.8 57.1 65.1 72.6
Jun-13 46.7 64.8 59.0 52.2 56.7
Point Change (13.6) (5.0) 1.8 (12.9) (16.0)
28%
37%
35%
Traffic Levels Versus Expectations
More than expected Meets expectations Less than expected
41%
8%
22%
48%
67%
42%
11%
26%36%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Home Prices Incentives Time to Sell
How Do the Recent 30 Days Compare to the Prior 30 Days...
Increased Remained the same Decreased
-
June 13 Slide 26
Orlando, FL Buyers Becoming Frustrated, Hoping to Lock In Attractive Affordability Levels
Source: Credit Suisse; Census Bureau
(7,240 single-family building permits in 2012, 8th largest market in the country)
Comments from Real Estate Agents:
Steady buyer traffic levels, still difficulties for owner occupant buyers to make purchases due to investor
competition and lack of available inventory.
Home buyers are trying to get set before interest rates rise even more.
Multiple offers; buyers are discouraged in the resale market due to still-low inventory.
More cash buyers! Sold $360,000 and $333,000 and both buyers said real estate a better investment now. Do see a
drop in low end buyers with loan requirements tougher.
Our Take:
Traffic softened in June, continuing the volatility seen in our index in recent months, but levels remained essentially in-line
with agents expectations. Our index fell to 45 from 62.