Creating conditions for Urban ResilienceProf. dr. Frans van de Ven

Integrated Water and Subsurface Systems

SeCURE Preparatory Workshop

Singapore, September 12-13

Contents

• Principles of resilience and vulnerability

• Stress-testing the physical system

• Scanning opportunities

• Setting targets

• Planning how to strengthen resilience

• Reflections on the principles

• Conclusions

September 20, 2019 2

Resilience

social, economic and environmental resilience

is based on

physical resilience

physical resilience

creates essential conditions for

social, economic and environmental resilience

5

Threshold capacity

Copingcapacity

Recoverycapacity

Adaptive capacity

time of recurrence

* Graaf, R. de, N. van de Giesen and F. van de Ven, 2007, Alternative water management

options to reduce vulnerability for climate change in the Netherlands, Natural Hazards nov.

Capacities to reduce vulnerability:

Strategy to strengthen physical resilience

Adaptive Capacity – The ability of a system to adjust to change, (including climate change, climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (adapted after IPCC 2007, 869)

Three-point design approach

Return period (yr)

10.01 100010

Q

☺

Design standard

of

?

100

Geldof G, J Kluck (2008) The Three Points Approach. In: Proc.11th

Int Conf Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008Fratini CF, GD Geldof, J Kluck & PS Mikkelsen (2012) Three Points Approach (3PA) for urban flood risk management: A tool to support climate change adaptation through transdisciplinarity and multifunctionality, Urban Water Journal, 9:5, 317-331, DOI: 10.1080/1573062X.2012.668913

2

1

3

How to operationalize this theory?

• actionability

March 21, 2014 9

How to reduce vulnerability?

Tiered approach

Three steps:

1: Vulnerability stress test + opportunity scan

2: Strategy/targets to reduce vulnerability

3: Select set of adaptation measures

Stress test: Flooding (coastal, fluvial, pluvial, groundwater)

BGR.com

Stress test: Flood hazard assessment

2D+ hydraulic modelling to show flood-prone areas

Stress test: Drought

Stress test: Drought hazard assessment

Groundwater level dynamics in housing area Pampus Blokkerhoek, Lelystad

Kuijk D (2014) Modelling changes in urban groundwater regimes. MSc Thesis TU Delft

Stress test: Heat stress

Stress test: Heat stress assessment

expected temperature differences

in Groningen city during heat wave

Stress test: Soil & groundwater pollution

Stress test: Land subsidence

Stress test: Land subsidenceGouda city centre

March 21, 2014 19

Stress test: Use of underground space

20

Stress test: Sea level rise

By 和平奮鬥救地球 - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=34123643

Stress test: SLR impact on groundwater

22

Source: Cliff Voss

Stress test: Climate change (scenarios)

Stress test: Changes in society200519701900

Translate hazards to risks ….

subsurface

networks

occupation

Layer model for urban development

PHOTO PROVIDED BY THE PORT AUTHORITY OF NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY A SURVEILLANCE CAMERA CAPTURES THE PATH STATION IN HOBOKEN, N.J., AS IT IS FLOODED SHORTLY BEFORE 9:30 P.M. EDT ON MONDAY, OCT. 29, 2012. (CREDIT: AP)

Critical infrastructure; vital objects, networks

• Power

• Telecom

• Hospitals

• Evacuation routes

• Elderly homes

• Chemical plants

• … … …

vulnerable people, animals and

vital objects and networks

require extra protection

Flooding 1916 north of Amsterdam; effects 2016

Opportunity scan

Water related opportunities

to strengthen resilience

28

Rain water and stormwater as a local resource

Water to live & work on/in/above

Water for recreation

Water for biodiversity

Water for food production

Water for cooling

Water as collector of solar energy heat

E. Aparicio (2008) Using surface water for energy supply and cooling,

Delft University of Technology

Setting targets

Targets depend on:

• Vulnerability reduction strategy (capacities)

• Local conditions (land use, soil, subsurface, …)

• Hazard and risk acceptance

• Adaptability of the system

37

Re-/Detain and Store at the source

to avoid overloading the drainage capacity

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2017-09/26/content_32491069.htmDe Urbanisten

Vulnerability reduction strategy #1 for flooding

How much ‘sponge capacity’ is required?

Storage – Discharge – Frequency curvesto assess sponge capacity as function of discharge capacity

Water quality targets (standards)

41

✓ Drinking water✓ Fishing and bathing water ? Stormwater? Surface water

Setting targets

Targets for drought and heat stress resilience

no specified targets available!

open for debate …

?

42

Water stress coefficients and changes per month for an average year (2010), dry year(1996), wet year (1998) and the annual average for the reference period (1981-2010).Molenaar R (2015) The urban water balance and the effect of changes in climate and land-usefor Utrecht Station district, Deltares/Wageningen University

Planning adaptation to strengthen resilience

• Spatial adaptation of urban areas

• Multifunctional flood defence

• Groundwater: Salinization control

43

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Lots of measures can be taken

Blue-green solutionsGrey solutions

flexible and cost-effectiveless flexible, extra investment

more space, visibleless space, subsurface

Blue-green solutions often preferred

Hybrid solutions are required for resilience

47

resilientcity

Keisuke Sugano, Simo Lu, 2019, TU Delft

Spatial hybridity

Keisuke Sugano, Simo Lu, 2019, TU Delft

Collaborative planning required for blue-green

experts from many disciplines + local stakeholders

Adaptation Support Tool (AST) to support planning

ISOCARP OAPA Conference 2017, Portland

Adaptation Support Tool to see

- what can be done- where, and how effective that is

Adaptation Support Tool to see

- what can be done- where, and how effective that is

Resilience performance indicators can include:• Detention capacity• Peak flow reduction • ET / Cooling effect / Cool spots• Groundwater recharge • Water quality improvement:

• Nutrients• HMs, PAHs, min. oil• Bacteriological quality

• Costs of implementation & maintenance • Perception• Safety • Health • Social cohesion

Van de Ven, Frans H.M., Robbert P.H. Snep, Stijn Koole, Reinder Brolsma, Rutger van der Brugge, Joop Spijker, Toine Vergroesen (2016). Adaptation Planning Support Toolbox: Measurable performance

information based tools for co-creation of resilient, ecosystem-based urban plans with urban designers, decision-makers and stakeholders, Environmental Science & Policy,

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2016.06.010

Adaptation Support Tool to see

- what can be done- where, and how effective that is

Multifunctional flood defence systems

54

Dike with park and shops (Rotterdam, SANT&CO)

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Super-levee (Tokyo, MLIT)

Groundwater salinity control for SLR

March 21, 2014 55

Goal: Increasing fresh groundwater reservoirs in saline coastal areasMethod:3 Field tests: infiltration of freshwater in times of water surplusTailor made co-design scientists-farmers-construction workersData and model facilitate design and upscaling field tests

Elevation groundwater level

by infiltration surface water

controlled level drainage

Injection fresh water

and extraction saline

groundwater

Smart deep drainage

protects thin freshwater

lens

The Freshmaker Creek Ridge InfiltrationDrains2Buffer

SalineFutures

Next step:

Compare alternative plan’s performance

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Climate adaptation

Decrease pluvial flooding +++ +++ ++ ++ + + ++ ++

Increase air quality ++ + +++ + + + +

Decrease heat stress ++ + +++ + ++ + +

Increase water quality* + +++ + ? ?

Replenish ground water** ++

Climate mitigation

Decreased energy use +++ +++ + ++ ++

Decreased CO2 emission ++ ++

Circular economy

Increase lifetime of infrastructure*** +++

Add to closing water cycle ++ + + +

Add to closing energy cycle**** +++ +++ + ++ ++

Add to closing nutrient/resources cycle ??

Other services

Increase recreation opportunities ++ +++ +++ + +++ + +++

Increase landscape quality +++ +++ +++ ++ +++ ++ +++

Increase social cohesion +++ +++

Increase physical activity ++ +++ ++

Decrease noise pollution ++ +++ +++ +

Improve habitat function and biodiversity ++ ++

Increase food production

Decrease criminality

Decrease management & maintenance + + + +

****: There is double counting here with 'decreased energy use'

?: only if water recreation is part of the new developments - in this case water recreationst and - companies will benefit

??: Financial benefits may be derived by the waste water treatment plants as costs are lower when water quality is higher

*: Only if there is demand for improved water quality and a substantial improvement is realized, this is a benefit

**: Only if there is currently a problem with the ground water level - unknown at the time of writing

***: Undertain effect, and not likely very strong

Distribution of benefitsover the stakeholders

• Co-investment opportunities

• Fair distribution of costs and benefits

Van de Ven, F.H.M., P. Bosch, R.J. Brolsma, J.J. Kok, E.S. van der Meulen, F.E. Schasfoort, C.L. ten Velden, A.J.J. Vergroesen (2016) Green, comfortable, attractive and climate resilient Utrecht Centre-West area : Smart Sustainable Districts – deep dive Utrecht opportunity 3. Deltares/TNO report 1220357, http://publications.deltares.nl/1220357_000.pdf

Evaluate benefits & beneficiaries

Creating resilience together

The New Orleans - Adaptation Support Tool

Reflections

• On the three point approach

• On the capacities to reduce vulnerability

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Reflections: Three point approach

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• Point 1: targets are set and met;

• Point 2: added value can be created by multifunctionaluse; opportunities are abundantly available;

• Point 3: critical infra is better protected; but we neednew ways of design,

to maximize coping

and recovery capacity ;

Reflections: Capacities to reduce vulnerability

• Requires integration of disciplines; multi-disciplinaryapproach to achieve multi-functional solutions;

• Adaptive, recovery and coping capacity is new way of thinking – how to maximize these?

• Hybrid solutions combine

the best of many worlds:

grey tech, high tech and

nature based solutions

61

Conclusions

An important research & implementation agenda is emerging, covering a.o.

• Adaptive capacity, adaptability

• Resilience targets for drought and heat stress

• Design of a failing urban water system to minimizedamage and recovery costs

• Hybrid solutions (grey + smart + blue/green)

• Multi-disciplinary planning / research by design

• Stakeholder (often laymen) engagement

• Planning & design support systems, to support thiscollaborative exploration and learning process

• Implement, test, try, fail, test, improve, test, improve…62

Conclusion

Socio-economic and ecological resilience

is based on

physical resilience

Tools and methods to create this resilience

ALREADY EXIST

NOW it is time to customize and apply these,

to develop, decide on, and implement plans

for a

BETTER LIVING ENVIRONMENT

for all63

Conclusion

SeCURE has to have two essential approaches

1. Investigate and develop tools

2. Apply, test, monitor, adapt, improve ….

SeCURE has to have three essential components:

1. Technology development

2. Research by (collaborative) design

3. Governance studies; process improvement

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Closing

Thank you for your attention!

frans.vandeven@deltares.nl

+31 6 5183 5010