@BenM_IM

Creating

a

positive

narrative

11.7.14

NHF W. Mids conference

Countdown to election 2015

nar¦ra|tive

NOUN

1 A spoken or written account of connected events; a story: a gripping narrative

1.1 [MASS NOUN] The narrated part of a literary work, as distinct from dialogue: the dialogue and the narrative suffer from awkward syntax

1.2 [MASS NOUN] The practice or art of telling stories: traditions of oral narrative

1.3 A representation of a particular situation or process in such a way as to reflect or conform to an overarching set of aims or values: the coalition’s carefully constructed narrative about its sensitivity to recession victims

1

Narrative: who is the audience? 2

Public

Politicians

Profess -ionals

Partners

Media Media Customers

Know the audience 3

Really know the audience 4

BUT perceptions can be unreal (& might need changing)

Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75

Mean estimate £24

Actual 70p

Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary

2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.

5

“Emotional

innumeracy”

Reflects concerns,

not facts

& motivated

reasoning:

“accuracy goals” vs

“directional goals”

We learnt a new phrase: emotional innumeracy… Misperceptions can be sticky 6

(Counter-)narratives 7

A ‘mega’ British narrative? 8

9

16

18

20

21

16

3/4 or more

Between 1/2 and 3/4

Around half

Between 1/4 and 1/2

Less than 1/4

Don't know

Base: 1,699 adults aged 16+, April-May 2012

Actual = 10%: http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk

Source: Ipsos MORI/British Property

Federation

Q. ‘Developed land’ is defined as…

What proportion of land in England do you think is developed?

Narrative: why? 9

Q. People have different attitudes towards statistics. Which of the following do

you agree with most?

11

Base: 1,034 British adults aged 16-75 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

46%

9%

18%

26% Statistics are more important than my own experiences or those

of my family and friends in helping

me keep track of how the

government is doing

My own experiences or

those of my family and friends

are more important than

statistics in helping me keep

track of how the government is

doing

Both equally

Neither/Don’t know

Telling it well 10

Cutting through

1986 2007

11

Straddling all three 13 Period of profound (accelerative) change 12

Housing’s most famous narrative?

• Timing

• Resonance

• Accessible

• Humanising

• Gritty, realistic

• Reach

Source: Katharine Sacks-Jones (Crisis)

13

And next year? 14

Housing &

social housing

Opportunities

& challenges

15

First, housing – a snapshot 16

What would politicians have said? 17

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that there is a housing crisis in

Britain?

Strongly agree

36%

15%

44%

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

18% 80%

3%

Base: 1,015 British adults 18+, 12-14 January 2013 Source: Evening Standard/Ipsos MORI

3%

12 Opportunity: recognition of premise 18

Q. To what extent would you support or oppose more homes being built in your

local area?

Strongly agree

27% 16% 13%

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

28% 40%

12%

30%

12 Opportunity/challenge: ...maybe to homes

Neither agree nor disagree

Base: 2,011 GB adults 16-75 (online), 30 May-4 June 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI for CIH

19

Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that…there isn’t much that British

governments can do to deal with the country’s housing problems?

Strongly agree

31%

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

Strongly disagree

62% 13%

4% 9% 19%

31%

Base: 2,011 GB adults 16-75 (online), 30 May-4 June 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI for CIH

Neither agree nor disagree

30 Opportunity: a “something must be done” issue 20

Challenge/opportunity: short-term vs long-term

Politics:

short-termist

attention & thinking

Professionals:

long-termist

outlook &

solutions

21

39

33

28

24

16

15

14

12

11

11

Challenge/opportunity: competition for attention 22

Economy

Unemployment

Housing

NHS

Race relations/Immigration

Education/Schools

Inflation/Prices

Poverty/Inequality

Positio

n

EU/Europe/Euro

Pensions/benefits

+1

-1

+2

-1

+2

+6

-1

Base: 963 British adults 18+, 6th – 15th June 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

June – top mentions %

Q. What do you see as the most important issue/other important issues facing

Britain today? [unprompted]

Opportunity: growing salience

Base: c1,000 GB adults per month (c100 In London), 5,859 GB vs 826 Londoners, Jan-June

2014

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

January

February

March

April

May

June

2009

8

6

2014

12

11

14

14

14

11

6

8

8

7

.

% saying housing

33

32

28

37

29

13

…esp. in London

Economy

Unemployment

Housing

23

Challenge: not everyone likes disaster movies 24

Opportunity: aspiration

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pre war Baby boomers Gen X Gen Y Overall

Source: Ipsos MORI analysis of BSAS (NatCen)

Q. If you had a free choice, would you choose to rent accommodation, or

would you choose to buy? % Buy

25

Opportunity: pan-generational 26

Opportunity: social as part of mixed-tenure provision

36%

34%

23%

15%

6%

12%

Homes to rent from local authoritiesor housing associations

Homes to buy

Homes to part-own and part-rent

No news homes needed

Homes to rent from private landlord

Don’t know

Base: 2,011 GB adults 16-75 (online), 30 May-4 June 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI for CIH

Q. If new homes were to be built in your local area, which if any of these types

of

homes do you think are most needed…?

44

21

20

15

9

5

8

19

20

23

21

30

25

27

29

24

32

28

30

33

5

9

8

7

6

% Charities % Private Companies % Public Authorities

% Makes no difference % Don't know

Providing a high quality service

Providing a professional service

Providing the best value for

money

Being open and accountable, for example to service users

and regulators

A caring approach

Q. Which of these of you think would be best at each of the following…?

Base: 1,163 adults 18+, England & Wales, 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI/Charity

Commission

Opportunity/challenge: housing associations? 28

Opportunity: not the PRS! 29

Creating a

positive

narrative

31

Summary

Stories matter

Local, aspirational,

solution-focussed

Must know audience

@BenM_IM Presentation & film

© July 2014