crash time? · going to see a stock market crash. by “crash” i mean a 5% or even 10% drop...
TRANSCRIPT
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CrashTime?
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Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301
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Iamgrowingmoreandmoreconcernedwearegoingtoseeastockmarketcrash.By“crash”Imeana5%oreven10%dropoccurringinasinglesessionoroverthespanof2-3days.IknowlastissueIpeggedtheoddsofthishappeningat20%,butintheylastmonththoseoddshavecreptupto35%.Thereason?Thestockmarketrigcontinues.Anditiscausingthedistortionsinthemarkettobecomeevenmoreextreme.Ahealthystockmarketralliesonheavyvolumewithrealbuyersinvestingacrossbroadsegmentsofthemarkets.Thatisnotthismarket.Notbyalongshot.TheS&P500ismadeupof500differentcompanies.AndyetjustFIVEcompaniesareaccountingfor40%ofitsgainsthusfarin2017.ThosecompaniesareFacebook(FB),Apple(AAPL),Amazon(AMZN),Alphabet(GOOGL),andMicrosoft(MSFT).Putsimply,themarketisnowbeingdrivenbyjustfivestocks.Andthosefivestocksarebeingdrivenbyamarketrig(theVIXslam/risk-parityfundrigIoutlinedinourWeeklyMarketUpdateon5-3-17).WhywouldthisleadtoaCrash?
Crash Time? May 31 2017
SHORT-TERM ISSUES
• Stocksbeingproppedupbyjustfivenames.
• Mostmarketsectorsalreadycorrecting.
• ACrash?INTERMEDIATE-TERM
ISSUES • The$USDposedtocrashintomid-’90slaterthisyear.
• TheEuroprimedforamoveto121asECBendsQElaterthisyear.
• EmergingMarketsreadyfornewbullmarket.
LONG-TERM ISSUES • ACrisisworsethan2008.• Eventualmarketcollapseof50%+inrealterms.
• Ascrambleforhigh-endcollateraltobringaboutderivativescollapse/
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BecauseCrashesoccurwhenthebroadermarketisindeclinewhileahandfulofstocksareholdingthingsup.ItiswhenthosehandfulofstocksturnandinvestorspanicthattheCrashoccurs.TakealookattheTechCrash.InthebuilduptotheTechCrash,TechStocksweretheonlythingholdingthemarketup.Multipleindexes/sectorswerealreadyinafree-fall.Transportspeakedinearly1999andhadalreadycollapsedforeshadowingwhatwascomingtoTechinearly2000.
ThesameistruefortheBanks,whichpeakedinearly1999andwereinafree-fallwellbeforetheNASDAQpeaked.
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ValuestockswerealsowellontheirwaytonewlowswhileTechwasstillrallying.
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AllthreeofthosesectorswereintotalcollapsemonthsbeforetheTechBubbleimploded.Therewerecountlesswarningsthatthemarketswereinserioustroublein1999-2000.AndonceTechstocksfinallyturned,theylost70%oftheirvalueoverthenexttwoyears.Now,IamNOTclaimingthatwe’regoingtoseeasimilar70%collapseinthemarketstoday.ButasInotedlastmonth,the1999-2000periodservesasagoodtemplateforunderstandingwhat’shappeninginthemarketsrightnow.Then,asnow,wehavethefollowingitemsinplay:
1) Stocksareinaclearbubble.
2) Thebubbleisbeingdrivenbya“narrative”(inthiscasetheTrumpeconomicagenda).
3) RetailorMomandPopinvestorshavecomeintothemarket.Andwhilethenarrativefortoday’sbubblediffersfromthatof1999(in1999itwastheInternetcraze,todayit’stheTrumpeconomicagendacraze),it’scriticaltonotethatfromamarketdynamicperspective,we’reseeingthesamemovements,namely…Techisrallyingwhileeverythingelseisindecline.ConsiderthatwhileTechstockscontinuetomarkethigherandhigher…Thebanksarealready10%offtheirrecenthighs.
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Transportsarenearly5%offtheirrecenthighs.
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Andsmallcapsare4%offtheirrecenthighs(andhavegonenowheresinceearlyDec.’16).
Mindyou,we’relookingatentireindexeshere.Let’slookatsomeindividualplays.CNBChasbeentalkingaboutGoldmanSachs(GS)asthebestfinance-relatedinvestmentformonths.It’sdownnearly14%sincelateFebruary.
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GeneralElectric(GE)isTHEindustrialbell-weatherfortheUSeconomy.It’sdownsome14%sinceearlyDecember.
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ExxonMobil(XOM),whichIpreviouslybelievedwassettorally,hasrolledoverandisnowdown11%fromitsearlyDecemberhighs.
Evenworseforstockbulls,the“growth”playsthatexplodedhigherontheTrumpelectionwinhavealreadyunwoundtheirentiremoves.
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USSteel(X):
FreeportMcMoRan(FCX)
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ThesearemajorwarningstousthattheTrumpTradeisover.Notjustover…butDEAD.Howdead?BondshaveactuallyoutperformedstockssincetheendofFebruary.Thatisnotatypo.Infact,thelong-TreasurybondETFhasnearlyDOUBLEDtheS&P500’sperformanceoverthattimeperiod.
Now,ifyoulistenedtothefinancialmedia(agreatgaugeofsentiment)you’dthinkthatthestockmarketwasinaroaringbullmarket.It’snot.Mostoftheimportantsectorsareinfull-blowncorrections.TheonlythingholdingthismarketupisaTechBubble.Andrestassured,itISaBubbleasthefollowingpointsreveal:
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1) ProfessionalfundmanagersaremoreheavilyinvestedinTechstocksthanatanytimeinhistory.
2) Apple’sstockisup80%whenitsoperatingprofitsareDOWNfrom2015andsalesinits
mostpopularproduct(theiPhone)aredeclining.
3) AmazonisworthtwotimesasmuchasWal-Mart…andgenerateslessthan30%ofWal-Mart’srevenuesandlessthan20%asitsincome.
Andmypersonalfavorite:
4) ThecombinedmarketcapofAppleandGoogleislargerthanthecombinedmarketcapsofeverypublicallytradedEUandJapanesefinancialontheplanet(H/TTeddyVallee).
Thereisnowaytolookasthiswithoutseeingamaniaisinplace.Investorsareliterally“allin”onTechasBloombergnotedyesterday.
FundstrackedbyBankofAmericaCorp.ownthehighestpercentageoftechnologystocksonrecordcomparedtotheirbenchmark.It’sasectorthat’scarriedU.S.stockstonewhighs,leadingtheS&P500Indexwithanearly20percentgainin2017.Andit’sgivingactivemanagersaboosttheyhaven’tseeninmorethantwoyears…Rarelyonestoshuntheherd,activefundsarenow71percentoverweightintheFANGcompaniesaftermakingthebiggestmovefromvaluetogrowthsince2008,accordingtoBankofAmerica.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-30/active-managers-go-all-in-on-technology-giants-as-returns-soar
Atsomepoint,thesestockswillturn.Whentheydo,we’regoingtoseeaserious“runfortheexits.”Thattimemightbestartingnow.AsIwritethis,Facebook(FB)isputtinginadoubletop.
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Amazon(AMZN)hitthepsychologicallyimportantlevelof$1,000andisnowrollingover.Ibelievethiswasafalsebreakoutandwe’regoingto$850bytheendofAugust.
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ThesameistrueforApple(AAPL).Thislooksandfeelslikeafalsebullishbreakout.Whenthesellingstarts,we’regoingbelow$120inshortorder.
Alphabet(GOOGL),alsolikeAmazon,spikedtothepsychologicallyimportantlevelof$1000.It’snowrollingover.Whenthesellinghits,we’regoingto$860.
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Andfinally,Microsoft(MSFT)hashitthepsychologicallyimportantlevelof$70pershare.Whenthesellinghits,we’regoingto$55.
WeareaddingFacebookandAlphabettoourSHORTportfolio.KEEPALLOFTHESEPOSITIONSSMALL.THESEAREESSENTIALLY“CRASH”TRADESWEAREUSINGASMARKETHEDGES.DONOTPUTALOTOFCAPITALATRISKHEREActiontoTake:SHORTFacebook(FB)ActiontoTake:SHORTAlphabet(GOOGL)IntermsofhowaTechsell-offwillimpactthebroadermarket,theS&P500hasagigantic“airpocket”downto2,300.Andthat’snotevenrealsupport.Thefirstreallineofrealsupportis2,275.Andcriticalsupportdoesn’tcomeuntil2,200.
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Thoselevelsrepresentdropsof5%or9%,respectively.Ibelievewe’llseethelatterbeforethesmokeclears.
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ThecatalystforthiswillbethemarketsrealizingthatTrump’seconomicreformsaren’tgoingtogetthroughCongressthisyear.
U.S.SenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnellsaidonWednesdayhedoesnotyetknowhowRepublicanswillamassthevotesneededtopasslegislationnowbeingcraftedtodismantleObamacare,butexpressedsomeoptimismonanothertoppriority,overhaulingthetaxcode…InanexclusiveinterviewwithReuters,McConnellsaidhealthcareandtaxesstilltoptheRepublicanlegislativeagenda,andheaddedthathewillnotreachouttotheminorityDemocratsoneitheronebecausedifferencesbetweenthetwopartiesaretoostark.…McConnellsaid,"Idon'tknowhowwegetto50(votes)atthemoment.Butthat'sthegoal.Andexactlywhatthecompositionofthat(bill)isI'mnotgoingtospeculateaboutbecauseitservesnopurpose,"McConnellsaid.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-mcconnell-exclusive-idUSKBN18K2FD
TheRepublicanshave52membersofoutof100intheSenate….andMitchMcConnelldoesn’tevenknowhowhecanget50votesonanObamacarerepeal.AndanObamacarerepealisarelativelyeasybillcomparedtoTaxReformoranInfrastructureplan!TheTrumpeconomicagendaisdonefornow.Reformispossible,butit’sgoingtotakeaLOTlongerthanthemarketsthink.Elsewhereinthemarkets,theGoldMinerstoGoldratiohasgottenclosetoourbuytarget(thebluecircle)butwe’restillnotthereyet.Ithinkwe’llfinallyhititwithinthenextweekorso.
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Whenwedoit’s“backupthetruck”timeforGoldMiners.ThesameistruefortheSilverMinerstoSilverratio.We’vemadeprogresshere,butwe’renotyetatourtarget.WeshouldbebythemiddleofJune.
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Whenthathappens,we’llmemovingseriouscapitalintothepreciousmetalsminingsector.Thisconcludesthismonth’sissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.ThemarketshavealreadybeguncollapsingwiththeexceptionofjustahandfulofTechstocks.However,eventhoseplaysarenowturningdownwards.AndIfullyexpectwe’regoingtoseeastampedefortheexitswithinthenexttwoweeks.We’repositionedforthis.AndI’vegotalistof“buys”thatwe’llbemakingassoonasthemarketbringsthemintoour“buyrange.”I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourusualweeklymarketupdate.Untilthen…
GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch
BestRegards,
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OPEN POSITIONS
STOCKS PORTFOLIO
Pricesasof5/31/17at1:30PMReturnsincludedividends
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
NuveenMuni.Fund NVG 1/2/14 $13.12 $15.08 38% EmergingMarketBonds EMB 11/21/16 $109.82 $115.49 7% LongUSTreasuries TLT 11/21/16 $121.05 $124.44 4%
BONDS PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $13.20 -15% AgriculturalCommoditiesETF RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 $6.20
-4%
ChinaETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.98 $25.74 3%
PublicStorage PSA 3/23/17 $225.92 $214.99 -5%
ClearEnergyETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 $4.11 1%
BiotechETF IBB 4/26/17 $296.15 $284.42 -4%
Verizon VZ 4/26/17 $47.17 $46.53 -1%
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Pricesasof5/31/17at1:30PMReturnsincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97**Averagepriceof$22.83and$22.07***Averagepriceof$37.52and$31.92
PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,275.00 14% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $17.39 7%
GoldMinersETF** GDX 10/5/16 $22.45 $22.88 2% GoldMiningJuniorsETF*** GDXJ 10/5/16 $34.72 $31.72
-4%
WheatonPreciousMetalsCorp WPM 10/5/16 $22.59 $20.63
-8%
NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $2.91 -25%
BarrickGold ABX 4/26/17 $16.92 $16.68 -1%
SilverMiningETF SIL 4/26/17 $34.44 $35.25 2%
SilverStandard SSRI 4/26/17 $9.94 $9.55 -4%
FirstMajesticSilver AG 5/12/17 $8.70 $8.43 -3% RandgoldResources GOLD 5/12/17 $93.25 $95.66 3%
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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $108.80 $108.74 0%
CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO
Pricesasof5/31/17at1:30PMReturnsincludedividends
SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $29.41 -26% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $27.88 -29% Russell2000ETF(SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $135.37 $135.91 0% Apple(SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $140.92 $152.98 -9% EnergyETF(SHORT) XLE 5/24/17 $67.63 $65.41 3% Facebook(SHORT) FB 5/31/17 $151.63 NEW SHORT Alphabet(SHORT) GOOGL 5/31/17 $987.72 NEW SHORT
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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS
POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE
BUYPRICE
SELLDATE
SELLPRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 1/31/17 $14.59 5%CliffsNatResources(FIRSTHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/13/17 $12.10 19%
Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $5.93 21%Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8%CliffsNatResources(SECONDHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/23/17 $11.13 10%
Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 3/8/17 $81.28 -8% EnterpriseProductsPartners EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 3/8/17 $27.83
9%
NaturalGasETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8%
EmergingmarketsETF EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 4/10/17 $39.207%
BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 4/10/17 $19.04 23%
UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 4/12/17 $15.90 9% Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $10.69 4/12/17 $11.48 7% CoalETF KOL 1/4/17 $12.59 4/12/17 $14.51 15% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.30 4/12/17 $11.32
10%
RoyalGold RGLD 2/8/17 $71.50 4/12/17 $74.14 4%
SilverMiners SIL 3/15/17 $35.81 4/12/17 $37.60 5%
USSteel(SHORT) X 2/1/17 $31.97 4/13/17 $29.42 8% CopperMinersETF(SHORT) COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 4/18/17 $21.02 7%
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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED
POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE
BUYPRICE
SELLDATE
SELLPRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
PeruETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 5/17/17 $34.775%
BrazilETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.53 5/17/17 $39.90 6%UtilitiesETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.35 5/17/17 $51.58 5%SolarEnergyETF TAN 4/19/17 $17.20 5/17/17 $18.00 5%RoyalGold RGLD 4/26/17 $69.92 5/17/17 $79.90 14% SouthwesternEnergy SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 5/24/17 $6.76 -17% GulfportEnergy GPOR 3/30/17 $17.17 5/24/17 $15.47 -10% USOilFund USO 4/26/17 $10.37 5/24/17 $10.60 2% ExxonMobil XOM 5/3/17 $82.70 5/24/17 $82.29 0%