craig sullivan - keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - conversion hotel 2015

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The AB Testing Hype Cycle Budapest - Netbooster – 11 Nov 2015 @OptimiseOrDie It’s a Wrap! #CH2015

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Page 1: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

The AB Testing Hype Cycle

Budapest - Netbooster – 11 Nov 2015 @OptimiseOrDie

It’s a Wrap! #CH2015

Page 2: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

How was your trip to Texel, dear?

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 3: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

• Genres – Facebook Poll • 3-4 Sets • Spotify Playlist • Outline set • Feedback • Mix live!

Music Optimisation

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 4: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 5: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Peep Laja

@OptimiseOrDie

• Peeeeep - A car sound • Pap - Common blog problem • Peahp - Texan pipe • Peppie - Food for small dogs • Payp - Micro payment system

Page 6: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

World CRO Dude Dickens Character

PEP PIP

Page 7: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Peep Laja – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

6 key pillars •  Heuristic analysis & walkthrough

•  Session Replay / Mouse Tracking / Scroll / Click •  Technical (compatibility & performance)

•  Web Analytics •  User Testing •  Qualitative Surveys

Page 8: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

“Stop copying your competitors. They may not know what the f*** they are doing either.” “We need better data, not more data” “Use a process – not 100 tactics. Discover what actually matters and lift heavy ass weights.”

Peep Laja – Quotes

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 9: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 10: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Chris Stucchio

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 11: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

STATS FOR A/B

TESTING

Page 12: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Chris Stucchio – Quotes

@OptimiseOrDie

“Misinterpretations of Significance.” “Bayesian statisticians can never agree to disagree.” “CRO is more like trading – the goal is to get more conversions.”

Page 13: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

•  The unconference session feedback! •  This stuff isn’t easy •  It’s about decision making though • Do we keep control, deploy challenger or test

further? • We can’t educate the world easily but we can build

tools and process that avoids or minimises poor decision making.

Chris Stucchio – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 14: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 15: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

4. If you have 4 hours

PLUS •  Snap interviews (Sales, Customer Services, Tech

Support) •  Run a quick poll or survey (See my tools slides)

Less  Bullshit!  

Page 16: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Oli Gardner – Quotes

@OptimiseOrDie

“Shitting marketing pisses me off…” “Delight should be the default, not the exception.” “Every page has one primary goal.” “Personalisation or targeting is still a hypothesis until it’s tested”

Page 17: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

• NSAMCWADLP – Never Start a Marketing Campaign Without a Dedicated Landing Page

•  4 corners – Copy, Design, Interaction, Psychology •  A multi-faceted approach is required

Oli Gardner – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 18: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

“ Affordance is the ability of a user to perceive that some action is possible”

– like a door handle or push plate!

Affordance isn’t about stuff that can’t be inferred (for example, hover states, feedback messages, hidden interactions)

http://www.jnd.org/dn.mss/affordances_and.html

Affordance

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 19: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 20: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

“Best Practices don’t work” “The best optimisation champions integrate both yin and yang into their work.” “You need a qual and quant mindset” “Don’t start with tactics. Process is critical but framework thinking is the best way.” “Optimise the Optimisation” “It’s about understanding buyers through testing”

Chris Goward – Quotes

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 21: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

• Marketing + Scientific process – CRO • UX, Analytics, Persuasion Principles,

Business Context and your Prior test results – are all part of your testing framework

• NPS is vital (Lovefilm example) • Measure NPS service metrics over time! • Continuous Improvement – not SLEDD*

*Single Large Expensive Doomed Development

Chris Goward – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 22: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 23: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Brent Dykes

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 24: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Brent Dykes

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 25: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 26: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

•  “Stories beat Statistics” • Storytelling is vital to our work “We saw this, so checked that and found this, which taught us that”

• We use persuasion on customers but not internally within our company?

•  “Show their digital journey”

Brent Dykes – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 27: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 28: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Jorden Lentze

@OptimiseOrDie

bit.ly/urinalux

Page 29: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Jorden Lentze

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 30: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

“Use the collective brain” “The Mixing of ideas and unexpected encounters through unplanned meetings” “The most important thing is the insights that you learn”

Jorden Lentze – Quotes

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 31: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

• Note the core team – CRO, Dev, Psychologist, Product, UX, Analyst, Copywriter

•  Explore the problem domain, focus on the problem at hand, incubate, get insights, follow through!

•  LISTEN to customers, MAKE incremental changes AND big ideas, AB Test and Measure impact

•  Sliders can work but most implementations suck!

Jorden Lentze – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 32: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Marketing?

Variation

Heritability of good ideas Selection

based on death

Page 33: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 34: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 35: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Harry Brignull

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 36: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

• Ethics are a vital and ongoing debate •  It’s all about intent for me • Read these articles – very good

www.measuringu.com/blog/ethical-treatment.php

www.twitter.com/search?q=optimiseordie%20ethics&src=typd

Harry Brignull – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 37: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 38: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Talia Wolf

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 39: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

“We like to think of ourselves as rational people”

“We’re basically buying better versions of ourselves”

“Don’t talk about yourself – make it about them”

“It’s about testing concepts, not elements or tactics. You can’t learn anything from these kind of tests”

“It’s about the strategy and knowledge you acquire”

Talia Wolf – Quotes

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 40: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

The 3 pillars: •  “Make it about the customer” •  “Show it, don’t just say it” •  “Test concepts – not elements or tactics”]

Cycle: Research, Strategy, Hypothesis, Prioritisation, Design, Align team, Launch, QA, Run, Analyse

Talia Wolf – Points to note

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 41: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

The AB Testing Hype Cycle

Budapest - Netbooster – 11 Nov 2015 @OptimiseOrDie

It’s a Wrap! #CH2015

Page 42: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

What About the Organisation?

@OptimiseOrDie

Page 43: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

Burn Down the Silos

•  Non agile, non iterative design

•  Silos work on product separately

•  No ‘One Team’ per product/theme

•  Large teams, unwieldy coordination

•  Pass the product around

•  More PMs and BAs than a conference

•  Endless sucking signoff

•  AB testing done the same way!

Page 44: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

FT, Booking, Skyscanner, ABN, Expedia + more

•  Small teams (6-15) with direct access to publish •  Ability to set and get metrics data directly •  Tools, Autonomy, Lack of interference

•  No Project Managers or Business Analysts

•  Business defines ‘outcomes’ – teams deliver •  No long signoff chain •  No pesky meddling fools

•  18 Month projects over budget?

Page 45: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

FT Example

•  100s of releases a day!

•  Iterative MVP approach

•  Launch as alpha, beta, pilot, phased rollout

•  Like getting in a shower

•  Read more at labs.ft.com

Page 46: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

CRO

46

Page 47: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

10. Positive Attributes

•  Rapid, Iterative, User Centred & Agile Design. No Silos.

•  Small empowered autonomous teams

•  Polymaths and Overlap

•  Toolkit & Analytics investment

•  Persuasive copywriting & Psychology

•  Great Testing & Optimisation Tools

Page 48: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

@OptimiseOrDie

•  Agile, Lean, Iterative x silo teams •  Ability to get and set metrics •  Autonomy, Control, Velocity •  Iterative MVP approach •  Work on outcomes, not features

! Burn Down the Silos!

Page 49: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

49

Time

ROI

Page 50: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

50

Page 51: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Summary Grid

@OptimiseOrDie

Do Your Research Prioritise Hypothesise

•  Heuristic analysis •  Usability testing •  Heatmap tools •  Session replay •  Web Analytics •  Qualitative surveys •  Polls •  Chat & Text analysis •  Interviews •  Device compatibility •  Performance

•  Use TIR or PIE •  Prioritise around

opportunity vs. cost •  Estimate political

difficulty or friction as well as resource costs

•  There is no best practice on prioritisation

•  Continually re-prioritise against new discoveries

•  Use the collective brain •  Assemble and circulate

your research •  Set clear goals and

have a process for sketching

•  Sketch the Hypothesis •  Build W/F or mockup •  Set ONE primary

(possibly one secondary) success KPI

Page 52: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Summary Grid

@OptimiseOrDie

Pre Flight Checks Run Analyse & Report

•  QA testing •  Device & Browser

compatibility •  Analytics tracking •  Ecommerce tracking •  Launch

•  Set your test length with a calculator

•  Run it, stop it, analyse it •  Don’t run over time

unless your sample is smaller than expected

•  Learn about the statistics

•  Watch tests closely!

•  Wash up analysis •  Share findings widely •  Don’t share useless

stuff •  What is useful across

the organisation? •  Store in knowledgebase •  Intellectual Property •  Use as training!

Page 53: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

DISCOVERY CYCLE

@OptimiseOrDie

Discover  Ideas  

Priori/se  

Build  &  QA  

Test  or  Live  Measure  

Data    

Learn  

Page 54: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

TEST CYCLE

@OptimiseOrDie

Hypothesis  Design  

Sketch  

Wire  Frame  

Mockup  /  Prototype  

Signoff  (mul/ple)  

Build  

QA  

SoH  and  Hard  Launch  

Analyse  &  Publish  

Learn  

Page 55: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

What did I learn personally?

@OptimiseOrDie

•  That best practice is emerging •  It’s about how you can do this properly! •  Methodology & Frameworks – not tactics •  Shared mindset across CRO practitioners •  Stories beat statistics, Data beats opinion •  I always have lots to learn •  “Hold strong opinions, but loosely”

Page 56: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015
Page 57: Craig Sullivan - Keynote speaker summary & final thoughts - Conversion Hotel 2015

Go Forth and Optimise!

Email me [email protected]

Slides Will be mailed to you!

Linkedin linkd.in/pvrg14