crafting policy regimes that advance economic and social rights by susan randolph & elizabeth...

New Horizons in Economic and Social Rights Monitoring, Madrid, 2012

Crafting Policy Regimes that Advance Economic and Social Rights

By Susan Randolph & Elizabeth Kaletski

This research is funded in part by NSF grant # 1061457

3/23/2012


Objectives

1. Adapt the SERF Index to take into account Structural characteristics historical policy legacy Separately for each component Right

Index.

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Objectives

2. Identify policy regimes promoting State’s compliance with their obligations of result under the ICESCR ↑policymakers’ ability to craft policy

regimes meeting commitments under the ICESCR

provide advocates with information on policies that undermine ESR

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SERF Methodology: APF Frontier

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Achievement Possibility Frontier for Primary School Completion Rate

Construction of the SERF Index

Indicator Performance Score 2

APF 2Indicator 2

Indicator 1 Indicator Performance Score 1

APF 1

Right IndexAverage

SERF IndexWeighted Average of Right IndicesWeighted Average of Right Indices

Wake Forest University, February 16,2012

5


Basic Approach

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Rri = α + βsSsi + γpPpi + δcCci +εi

Where Rr is a vector of r right indices, specifically, the Core

International SERF Index or one of the underlying component Right Indices (education, health, housing, food, work)

Ss is a vector of s structural characteristics Pp is a vector of p policy variables Cc is a vector of c control variables α is the intercept ,and β, γ, δ are the coefficients of S, P, and

C, respectively ε is the error term and i is an index for country

Data source Rights Indices: SERF Index Historical Trend Data


Factors influencing Resource Needs.

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Structural & Historical Policy Legacy Factors Economies of Scale in Infrastructure

provision Women’s empowerment & knowledge Income inequality Malaria Prevalence & Risk


Economies of Scale in Infrastructure Provision

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Indicator: ruralpop = rural population as a % of total population

Data Source: World Development Indicators


Women’s empowerment & knowledge

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Indicator: GenderIneqPrimary = the ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) lagged 10 years

Range: 0 (only males in primary school) to 100 (equal % males and females enrolled) >100 (higher % females than males enrolled).

Data Source: UNESCO via World Development Indicators


Income Inequality

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Indicator: Gini = Gini Coefficient

Range: 0 (no inequality) to 100

Data Sources:

Primary: UNU-WIDER World Income Inequality Database, Version 2.0c, May 2008

Secondary: World Development Indicators


Malaria & HIV Prevalence & Risk

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Indicator Malaria Risk: popmalaria = % population living in areas with malaria

Range: 0 (none) to 1 (100% of population)

Data source: Interpolated from Gallup, John L. and Jeffrey Sachs, with Andrew Mellinger, “Geography and Economic Development


Impact Economies of Scale, Women’s empowerment & knowledge, Income inequality, and Malaria Risk

on Ability to Ensure ESR

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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

VARIABLES serf education health housing food work ruralpop -0.180*** -0.0365 -0.159*** -0.284*** -0.273*** -0.186**

(0.0453) (0.0583) (0.0362) (0.0464) (0.0623) (0.0817)

genderineqprimary 0.254*** 0.402*** 0.405*** 0.318*** 0.204*** -0.0737(0.0513) (0.0768) (0.0451) (0.0608) (0.0747) (0.0974)

gini -0.418*** -0.788*** -0.307*** -0.592*** -0.239* -0.411**(0.0896) (0.109) (0.0670) (0.0866) (0.126) (0.162)

popmalaria -9.051*** -11.82*** -12.65*** -13.25*** -5.551* -13.57***(2.210) (3.427) (1.986) (2.725) (3.197) (4.419)

Constant 80.54*** 69.24*** 65.59*** 89.38*** 82.50*** 115.3***(6.493) (8.637) (5.136) (6.827) (9.177) (11.65)

Observations 169 308 278 319 215 230R-squared 0.507 0.417 0.670 0.599 0.274 0.154Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10


Things to Note

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All 4 factors have statistically significant impact on SERF Index & underlying right indices

Each factor has the greatest impact on a different right Ruralpophousing GenderInequPrimaryhealth GiniEducation Popmalariawork


Impact Economies of Scale, Women’s empowerment & knowledge, Income inequality, and Malaria Risk on Ability to Ensure ESR

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Variable Serf Education

Health

Housing

Food

Work

Ruralpop (+15.65)

-2.77 -- -2.61 -4.12 -3.99

-2.72

Genderineqprimary (-21.2)

-5.34 -8.44 -8.76 -6.38 -4.16

--

Gini(+6.5)

-2.6 -4.94 -2.28 -3.27 -1.18

-2.11

Popmalaria(+0.567)

-5.14 -5.88 -7.01 -6.90 -3.12

-7.58


Adjusting the Benchmarks to Reflect Structural Characteristics & Historical Policy Legacy

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Adjustment Approach: Use the regression equations to compute countries

predicted scores

New performance index score: (Actual Score/predicted Score) 100 = %

benchmark achieved


Identifying Policy Regimes Promoting ESR

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Lessons from adjusting benchmarks to account for countries’ structural characteristics and historical legacy. policies enhancing rural productivity and

employment opportunities, policies promoting women’s empowerment and

women’s education, development strategies promoting equitable

growth, and policies focused on eradicating malaria and

HIV are indicated.



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Other Issues Considered So Far Political stability Institutions

Democratic political institutions Role Government Provision

Government Expenditures Foreign Resource Flows

Foreign aid Stabilization and Structural Adjustment

Development Strategy Resource Extraction



3/23/2012

Approach Rri = α + βsSsi + γpPpi + δcCci +εi

Where Rr is a vector of r right indices, specifically, the Core

International SERF Index or one of the underlying component Right Indices (education, health, housing, food, work)

Ss is a vector of s structural characteristics

Pp is a vector of p policy variables

Cc is a vector of c control variables α is the intercept ,and β, γ, δ are the coefficients of S, P, and C,

respectively ε is the error term and i is an index for country

Data source Rights Indices: SERF Index Historical Trend Data


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Serf Education

Health

Housing Food Work

Political Stability

ns ns ns ns ns ns

Democratic Inst.

ns + ns ns ns +

Gov. Expenditures

ns ns + ++ ++ ns

Foreign Resources

ODA ++ ns ++ ns ++ ++

World Bank Structural Adj.

++ ++ ++ ns ns ns

IMF Structural Adj.

ns -- -- - ns ns

Development Strategy

Resource Extraction

ns ns ns - ns --


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Thank you


Political Stability

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Indicators: Conflict10: dummy variable = 0 if free of major

conflict in previous 10 years Source: Uppsala Conflict Data program and Center for the Study

of Civil Wars, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo, “UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook: Version 4-2009

Conflict5: dummy variable = 0 if free of major conflict in previous 10 years

Source same as above

Wgi_politicalstability: Worldwide Governance Indicator Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terriorism. (Perceptions of likelihood government will be destabilized or

overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means) Higher implies more stable Source: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2011


Political Stability

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VARIABLES serf education health housing food work

Political Stability

wgi_politicalstability -1.589 -1.569 -0.109 0.753 0.982 1.101

(1.160) (1.527) (0.966) (1.149) (1.554) (2.248)

Observations 140 232 211 239 171 182

R-squared 0.537 0.435 0.641 0.604 0.320 0.159

R-squared 0.537 0.441 0.650 0.605 0.312 0.156Standard errors in parentheses. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10


Democratic Political Institutions

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Indicators Wgi_voiceandaccountability: Worldwide

Governance Indicator Voice and Accountability (Perceptions of extent to which a country’s citizens are able to

participate in selecting their government, there is freedom of expression, association, and the media) Higher score implies greater voice Source: The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2011

Genderinequalityparliament: % seats held by women in national parliaments,

Source: United Nations Millennium Development Goals Indicators


Democratic Political Institutions

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VARIABLES serf education health housing food workDemocratic Political Institutions

wgi_voiceandaccount -0.310 1.257 1.026 1.779 1.155 4.408*

(1.450) (1.644) (1.046) (1.246) (1.817) (2.586)

Observations 140 232 211 239 171 182

R-squared 0.530 0.434 0.643 0.607 0.320 0.171

genderinequalityparliament 0.105 0.223* -0.0314 0.106 -0.000278 -0.00183

(0.133) (0.134) (0.0887) (0.103) (0.159) (0.247)

Observations 139 229 208 236 169 179



Role of Government Provision

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Indicators Govexpendtotal10 & Govexpendtotal5: 10 and 5 year

average, respectively, of general government current expenditures for purchases of goods and services as % of GDP. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

Govexpendedu10 & Govexpendhealth5: 10 and 5 year average, respectively, of total public spending on education as % of GDP. Source: UNESCO

Govexpendhealth10 & Govexpendhealth5: 10 and 5 year average, respectively of public health expenditure as % of GDP. Source: World Health Organization National health Account

database supplemented by country data via World Development Indicators.


Role of Government Provision

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govexpendtotal5 0.0764 0.0793 -0.418*** 0.378** 0.515** 0.271

(0.146) (0.196) (0.110) (0.152) (0.202) (0.264)

Observations 167 301 270 308 208 224

R-squared 0.510 0.409 0.690 0.602 0.290 0.136

govexpendtotal5 0.0764 -0.0311 -0.705*** 0.378** 0.515** 0.271

(0.146) (0.395) (0.154) (0.152) (0.202) (0.264)

govexpendedu5 0.354

(1.134)

govexpendhealth5 1.049*

(0.589)

Observations 167 169 206 308 208 224



Foreign Resource Flows

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Indicators Oda5 and oda10: five and ten year annual average of net

official development assistance (ODA) received as a % of GNI. Source: World Development indicators

Wbsap: dummy variable equal to 1 if a country received a World Bank structural adjustment loan during the 5 year period prior to the start of the decade or during the decade concerned. Source: Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli (2007) Human

Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge: Cambridge University press.

Imfsap: dummy variable equal to 1 if a country received an IMF loan during the 5 year period prior to the start of the decade or during the decade concerned. Source: Abouharb, M. Rodwan and David Cingranelli (2007) Human

Rights and Structural Adjustment. Cambridge: Cambridge University press


Foreign Resource Flows

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oda10 0.219** 0.227-

0.351*** -0.0462 0.300** 0.874***

(0.0935) (0.156) (0.0908) (0.135) (0.138) (0.189)

Observations 166 228 219 237 202 208

R-squared 0.501 0.308 0.619 0.405 0.247 0.179

wbsap 5.828** 7.324*** 4.604*** 1.274 5.067 -0.750

(2.253) (2.811) (1.737) (2.272) (3.093) (3.917)

imfsap -3.047 -9.922*** -3.930** -4.361* -5.188 5.555

(2.403) (2.934) (1.812) (2.366) (3.372) (4.397)

Observations 168 305 277 317 214 229



Development Strategy: Resource Extraction

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Indicators Resourcerents5 and resourcerents10: Five and ten

year, respectively annual average of total natural resource rents as a % of GDP. (measured as the sum of oil, natural gas, coal, mineral and forest rents.) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, from

World Bank “The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the new Millennium.”, 2011


Development Strategy: Resource Extraction

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resourcerents5 -0.0577 -0.0388 -0.0809 -0.130* -0.125 -0.398***

(0.0773) (0.0930) (0.0536) (0.0721) (0.0877) (0.135)

Observations 169 304 277 315 214 229


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