cox committee report an assessment
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
1/104
1
The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment
Alasta ir Iain Johnston, W. K. H . Panofsky,
M arco D i Ca pua, and Lewis R. Franklin
M. M. Ma y, editor
December 1999
The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not represent positions of the
Center, its supporters, or Stanford University.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
2/104
2
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
3/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
4/104
4
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
5/104
5
Introduction
The publication in early 1999 of the unclassified version of the Final Report of the Select
C ommittee on U.S. Na tiona l Security a nd M ilita ry/C ommercial C oncerns w ith the Peoples
Republic of China (known as the Cox report, and hereafter referred to as the report) pro-
voked considerable reaction and concern. The report made a number of specta cular accusa-
tions against both China and several U.S. research and development organizations impor-
ta nt t o U .S. security, such as the nuclear w eapons labora tories and va rious missile and sat el-
lite companies. The language of the report, part icularly its O verview, w as inflamma tory and
some allegations did not seem to be well supported.
Stanford Universitys C enter for Internationa l Security a nd C ooperation (C ISAC) has been
involved in the study o f the internationa l role of nuclear w eapons, nuclear arms contro l, the
role of export controls on high technology items in national security, and the politics and
external po licy of China for a number of years. To severa l at t he Center, the stat ements madein the report w arra nted further study a nd discussion. As a result, four contributo rs with long
experience in one or another of the topics taken up in the report, Alastair Iain Johnston,
W. K. H . Pa nofsky, M arco D i Ca pua, a nd Lewis R. Franklin, agreed to make an assessment
of sta tements made in the report. I a greed to provide coordinat ion, a n introduction, execu-
tive summary, and some editing, and to provide reviewers. Brief biographies of all five of us
are given a fter this introduction.
In the six months since this task was undertaken, a number of assessments of the Cox
report have been published. Inevitably there is some duplication between these publications
and t he present pa per. N evertheless, w e believe there is enough tha t is new o r not w ell
known in this paper to w arrant publication.
The paper consists of four cont ributions. The first, b y Alastair Ia in Johnston, deals w ithC hinese politics, economics, and nuclear doctrine. The second, b y W. K. H . Pa nofsky, deals
with nuclear weapons. The third, by Marco Di Capua, deals with the so-called lab-to-lab
programs, w hich consist of interactions betw een U.S. and Chinese nuclear w eapons labora -
tories carried out under U.S. law and regulations to deal with such matters as safety and
arms-control monitoring. The fourth, by Lewis R. Franklin, deals with missiles. A fifth chap-
ter was originally planned, on the relation between scientific excellence at the nuclear weap-
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
6/104
6
* The Na tiona l Acad emies, Na tiona l Security and Scientific Openness, October 1999.
M ICHAEL M . M AY
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Stanford University
ons labora tories and openness to the broad er scientific w orld, but the recent N at ional Acad-
emy of Sciences report o n the subject* ma kes this chapter unnecessary. Tw o o f the contribu-
tors to the present pa per, Pa nofsky and I, also pa rticipat ed in preparing the Na tiona l Acad -
emy report.
As the authors and readers of this paper are well aware, an appropriate relationship be-
tween the United States and China is essential to progress and peace in the coming century.Such a relationship must be based on a realistic, informed view on each side of the capabili-
ties, history, mot ivation, a nd likely evolution of the other. It should also be ba sed, insofa r a s
possible, on a realistic view of ho w China and others view t he United Sta tes. Unfo rtunat ely,
in our opinion, in many instances the report does not contribute to such realistic, informed
view s. Some importa nt a nd relevant fa cts are wro ng and a number of conclusions are, in our
view, unwarranted. These are summarized in the Executive Summary which follows.
We have checked our findings and referenced them wherever possible. In addition to fac-
tual findings, the authors have in places stated their conclusions regarding some policy im-
plications of the findings and of t he Cox report conclusions. C onclusions and o pinions are of
course the autho rs individua l responsibility. We realize tha t no t a ll of the report w as declas-
sified and th us some of the factua l justificat ion for t he report s conclusions may b e classified.
Whether we are right or wrong in our disagreements with the report, we hope that thefollowing analyses contribute in a positive way to the ongoing debate on these important
matters.
We are grateful to ma ny people w ho heard expositions of o ur findings, read dra fts of our
paper, and gave us valuable criticisms. We thank the officials, former officials, and scholars
w ho ga ve us their advice. All errors in facts and judgments of course remain the responsibil-
ity of the authors.
We thank our editor, M egan L. H endershott, a nd C ISACs outreach and publications a ct-
ing manager, Eileen Hughes, for their help.
This paper has been reviewed for classification and found not to contain any classified
material.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
7/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
8/104
8
San Leandro, California (19741984), he carried out R&D in flash radiographic electron
accelera tors, nuclear w eapons effects simulat ors, fa st, single-event electrica l measuring tech-
niques, microwa ve sources, and plasma a ccelerat ors. H e w as at ta ched to t he U.S. Na vy as a
Liaison Scientist w ith the London unit of t he Office of Na val R esearch from 1988 to 1990,
w here he ana lyzed R &D developments in Europe and t he Soviet U nion in a period of rapidly
changing political and military environments. H e developed an interest in Asian af fairs a s anundergraduate in engineering physics at Cornell University. He holds a doctorate from
Princeton University (1972). D r. D i C apua may be reached by email at [email protected] or
Lewis R. Franklinjoined t he Center for Int ernational Security and C ooperation in 1992 as avisiting scholar and continues as a research affiliate with the Center. His current research
focuses on international space policies for the postCold War period. A career intelligence
expert on Sino-Soviet missile and spa ce research a nd development, he retired a s a vice presi-
dent in TRW Space and D efense. H e wa s recognized by the CIA w ith its G old M edal Agency
Seal M edallion for contributions to U.S. intelligence technology a nd n at ional security.
Michael M. May is the co-director of Stanford Universitys Center for International Security
and Cooperation and professor (research) of engineeringeconomic systems and operationsresearch at Stanford. Professor May is director emeritus of the Lawrence Livermore Na-
tional Laboratory, where he worked from 1952 to 1988. He was technical adviser to the
Threshold Test Ba n Treaty negotia ting team; a member of the U.S. delega tion t o the Stra tegic
Arms Limitation Talks; and at various times has been a member of the Defense Science
Boa rd, t he G eneral Advisory C ommittee to the AEC, the Secreta ry of Energy Advisory Boa rd,
the RAND C orpora tion Boa rd of Trustees, and the Committ ee on Internationa l Security and
Arms Control of the National Academy of Sciences. He is a member of the Council on
Foreign Relations and the Pacific Co uncil on Internationa l Policy, a nd a Fellow of t he Ameri-
can Physical Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
9/104
9
Executive Summary
The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate con-
cerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection
with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory.
The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems
and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were
released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administrations response.
The full declassified (reda cted) version of the report of t he Cox C ommission w as released on
M ay 25, 1999.
The Cox Report on Chinese Politics, Governance, and Nuclear Doctrine
In chapter 1 the Co x report provides an introductory discussion of the nature of t he Chinese
politica l system, the decision-making process, a nd t he relat ionship betw een economic devel-
opment and milita ry modernization in C hina. The purpose of t his introductory section a p-
pears to be to establish an interpretative lens through which to view the details of PRC
activities with respect to the acquisition of nuclear, missile, and high-speed computer tech-
nology. The point presumably is to ca st these activities in the w orst po ssible lightthat they
are all aimed at modernizing the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) so as to challenge U.S.
interests, and that this policy reflects the basic preferences of top Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) leaders. Otherwise, it is unclear why the report would include a very general discus-sion o f t he policy-making structures and process in the PR C in a report abo ut t he deta ils of
nuclear a nd missile espiona ge.
To t his end, t he report o utlines the organiza tiona l structure of the PRC and argues, in
essence, tha t a ll sta te, military, and commercial a ctivities in China are controlled by the
C CP politburo. The general problem w ith this section of the report, how ever, is tha t it paints
a picture of an extremely centralized political system where policies across government,
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
10/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
11/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
12/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
13/104
13
tion obtained, for example we do not know whether any weapon design documentation or
blueprints were acquired, and that among espionage, contact w ith U.S. a nd other coun-
tries scientists, conferences, and publications, unauthorized media disclosure, declassified
w eapon informa tion, and C hinese indigenous development, the relat ive contribution o f each
cannot be determined.
Significance of Allegedly Stolen Information about the W-70 and the W-88 and about U.S.Nuclear Weapons Computer Models
The W-70 ( neutron bo mb ) w as developed to d efeat massed ta nk att acks witho ut da mag-
ing surrounding tow ns and villages. Its effectiveness in tha t role has been contested. It ha s no
ad vanta ge aga inst cities and other soft ta rgets over standa rd nuclear w eapons. A version
was also developed for an atmospheric nuclear ballistic missile interceptor, the Sprint. It is
essentially irrelevant to the milita ry posture of C hina aga inst the United Stat es.
The W-88 was designed about thirty years ago and is deployed on U.S. missiles carried in
Trident submarines. It fits into the slender multiple independently targeted reentry vehiclesrequired for high a ccuracy. China tested a possibly similar system several years ago . The only
evidence provided tha t the design of t hat w eapon w as derived from informat ion stolen fromthe United Stat es is tha t a C hinese w alk-in agent provided the CIA with a classified PR C
document referencing information related to the W-88. The provenance and sponsorship of
the agent ha ve not been ma de clear. If t he document conta ins informat ion not ava ilable from
public sources, it wo uld provide evidence of C hinese access to cla ssified informa tion , tho ugh
not of w here the alleged leak t ook pla ce.
China has about twenty ICBMs at present capable of reaching the United States. Designs
similar to tha t o f the W-88 could permit M IRVing these missiles or new ones, w hich in turn
w ould ha ve mixed effects on the Chinese stra tegic position, effects discussed a t great er length
in the text. Such designs or o ther compact w arheads could permit more survivable basing for
Chinese missiles, which in turn could provide greater stability in case of a crisis between
China and another nuclear power.
Co mputer models (codes) wo uld add t o the ba sic know ledge related to nuclear w eapons
design, although it must be added tha t C hina has ha d w hat is regarded as a highly competent
nuclear weapon program for thirty-five years or more. The codes, in the opinion of nuclear
weapons designers in the United States, would not be sufficient by themselves to permit
fielding a new design, especially not one that could be deployed without nuclear tests. Such
codes are specialized to the particular user, contain many empirical entries valid for limited
uses, and a re by necessity incomplete.
Security, Counterintelligence, and International Contacts at U.S. Nuclear WeaponsLaboratories
A report by a committee of the Presidents Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB),chaired by PFIAB chairman former senator Warren Rudman, issued in 1999, provided an
extensive summary of the vulnerabilities of the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories to foreign
penetration. The Rudman report cites a dismal record of resistance to implementation of
security measures on the part of the Department of Energy (DOE) and proposes a major
reorganization in which DOE national security activities would be taken over by either an
autonomous or a semiautonomous agency. Many reasons for this proposal are outlined in
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
14/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
15/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
16/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
17/104
17
rockets, or tha t he ever pa rticipat ed in the early U.S. Titan ICBM development, cont rary to
the Cox report sta tement.
Theft and Technology Loss in Satellite Launches and Launch Failures
The Cox commission was originally chartered to investigate the potential transfer of sensi-
tive missile technology to the PRC in the aftermath of three unsuccessful launches of U.S.-
manufa ctured sat ellites on C hinese Long M arch rockets in C hina. H ughes Space and C om-
municat ions Internat iona l, Inc., and Space Systems/Lora l manufact ured the sa tellites. The
central issue w as whether these companies viola ted the cond itions of their expo rt licenses by
providing information to the PRC during subsequent investigations of the launch failures,
and th e PR C t hereby ga ined access to sensitive missile technology. M ost o f the Co x commis-
sion report is devoted to analyzing whether the launch failure investigations led to illegal
U.S. technology transfer and to assessing the consequences.
The Hughes-manufactured (the satellites had been made for foreign civilian customers)
satellite launch failures occurred in 1992 and 1995. The Cox report notes that Hughes
personnel, a fter the fa ilures, provided informa tion o n a erodyna mic buffeting of t he satellite
fairing (provided by the PRC) during the rockets exit from the atmosphere without seekingprior State Department approval to transmit technical information to the PRC or apply for
an additional export license for the failure analysis. The PRC denied responsibility for the
failure, but, after another similar failure, corrected its fairing design. The Cox report con-
cludes that the PRC could use the informat ion provided to improve the reliability o f fut ure
ICBMs, though it notes that the sophisticated fairing design needed to protect satellites
during t he launch a scent is unlikely to b e used o n ba llistic missiles.
The Loral-manufactured satellite launch failure occurred in 1996. Chinese personnel as-
cribed the cause to a fa ult in the rockets inertial measurement unit (IMU), w hich it provided.
Some telemetry data, however, were not consistent with that assessment. The insurer re-
quested tha t an independent review committ ee be formed, in w hich Lora l and o ther Western
experts participated. A Loral employee chaired the committee at Chinese request. The
committees preliminary report was faxed to Chinese participants without Loral securing
prior government approval or an additional export license, a mistake voluntarily admitted
by Loral. The preliminary report suggested a different IMU failure mode from the one ini-
tially identified by PR C engineers, one that w as consistent w ith the telemetry dat a. This wa s
subsequently confirmed a nd corrected. The C ox report concludes that the correction to the
IM U could b e ada pted for use in the PRC s road -mobile missile program, w hich is possible
but not deemed likely owing to differences in the launch and operational environments be-
tw een mo bile missiles and space launch vehicles.
In both of these cases, it appears that the management of the U.S. companies did not
at tempt to obta in a separa te export license to pa rticipat e in these technical discussions and
meetings. Because of ambiguity over government policies, regulations, and jurisdiction, it is
unclear whether the companies were legally required to do so. In some cases, individualmembers of the project teams ma y ha ve unilaterally communicated technical informa tion t o
the PRC without getting prior management approval or having the government review the
material. When these communications came to the attention of the government offices in-
volved, they advised that an export license should be applied for to resolve whether a sepa-
rate accident review license was needed. The U.S. companies then made voluntary disclo-
sures of the information they had. The Justice Department has initiated criminal investiga-
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
18/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
19/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
20/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
21/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
22/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
23/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
24/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
25/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
26/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
27/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
28/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
29/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
30/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
31/104
31
observed military modernizat ion progra m on the other. H is testimony then speculates as to
how to identify and respond to Chinese military modernization in the futureshould these
w ritings determine futurepolicies of technology development and acquisition. Contrary to
the Co x report, this is not a comment a bout t he alleged subordina tion of economic modern-
ization t o military mo dernizat ion in the 1980s and 1990s.
2.3 The Cox report states: Despite the PRCs public claims, it is estimated that their actualmilitary spending is four to seven times greater than official figures.53
The footno te to this claim abo ut t he size of C hinas milita ry budget is to Frankenstein and
G ill. H ow ever, Frankenstein and G ill do not ma ke this estimate.54 Four to seven times
would put Chinas expenditures in the 400700 billion renminbi (RMB) range. While Chi-
nese military expenditure estimates are very soft, the Cox report uses an extreme and high
range that very few other serious analysts of Chinese spending use. The CIA, for instance,
believes the figure is about tw o t o t hree times the officially announced budget, o r a bout 200
300 billion R M B.55 A 1995 study by the G overnment Accounting O ffice agrees w ith the C IA
estimate of two to three times the official figure.56
The International Institute for StrategicStudies in London puts Chinas military spending for 1997 at $36.5 billion, or about 300
billion RMB at current exchange rates.57 Even the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament
Agency (since reorganized as the Bureau of Arms Control and the Bureau of Non-Prolifera-
tion), which provides the highest U.S. government estimate, puts the figure at $5060 bil-
lion; at current exchange rates this w ould be abo ut 450550 RMB . N o serious analyst of t he
PLA believes 700 billion RMB is a plausible figure. At the very least the Cox report should
have acknow ledged the more broad ly held ra nge of estimates.
2.4 The Cox report states: Communist Party Secretary Jiang Zemin, in March 1997, pub-licly called for an extensive, thoroughgoing, and sustained upsurge in the PLAs acquisition
of high technology. This quote is footnoted (no. 27) to the BBC Summary of Worl d Broad-casts, April 7, 1997.
This quote is used to emphasize the PLAs success in getting the top leadership to pay more
a ttention to t he high-technology needs of the PLA.The quo te is a misquote, how ever.In fact,the article tha t the Co x report cites sta tes: To implement C M C C hairman J iang Z emins
instructions on expeditiously w hipping up an extensive, t horoughgoing, a nd susta ined up-
surge of studyinghigh-tech know ledge in the w hole army, the G eneral Sta ff D epart ment
drew up a t hree year plan for ca dres of t he who le army t o study high tech know ledge. . . . 58
C learly, the citat ion refers to instructions from Jia ng Z emin to start an extensive, thoro ugh-
going, and susta ined upsurge in the study o f high-tech weapons in the PLA. C ontra ry to t he
C ox report, this particular citation d oes not sta te that Jiang publicly called fo r an upsurge in
the acquisition of high technology. Studying may w ell be an integral part o f the process of
acquiring new technology, and Jiang Zemin may have called at some point in time for an
upsurge in the acquisition of high technology for the PLA. But in this insta nce, a s in others
in the Co x report, t he footno te reference does not support t he claim in the text.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
32/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
33/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
34/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
35/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
36/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
37/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
38/104
38
create a misleading impression of Chinese politics and economics. This impression or inter-
pretive lens appears to have had its effect, however. As one prominent example, a N ew
Republiceditoria l concluded:
The PRC follow s a Sixteen-Cha racter Policy that , a s the Cox report no tes, ha s been codi-
fied by the central committee. This policy deliberately blurs the lines between state and
commercial entities and military and commercial interests. . . . These are not isolatedepisodes but are part of a coherent strategy aimed at finding a way to use the American
industrial base to build up the Chinese military. The truth is that in a Communist state
such a s China , w here the party remains firmly in control, there can b e no real distinction
between the private and public sectors.98
This quote represents the wholesale acceptance of the Cox reports message. However,
aside from the fa ct tha t in t he United Sta tes and o ther Western democracies the privat e and
public sectors also work together in the military technology area, this characterization of
Chinese politics, as I have indicated here, is simply inaccurate. The security relationship
betw een the United Sta tes and China is likely to be complex a nd d ifficult a t b est, a nd is beset
with important uncertainties. There are certainly many aspects of Chinese military modern-
ization a nd pa tterns in the C hinese use of f orce that are not conducive to max imizing peaceand development in the Asia Pacific region. There is some reason to question, a s well, w hether
there is much basis at the moment for building a strategic part nership w ith the lead ership
of the Peoples Republic of China. But this is no excuse for imprecise writing, sloppy re-
search, and ill-informed speculation.
Notes
1 Note: all electron ic sources from the World Wide Web w ere accessed during the period J uly
15 to August 16, 1999. My tha nks to the follow ing people for their comments on and criti-
cisms of this assessment: Dennis Blasko, Thomas J. Christensen, John Frankenstein, BatesGill, Paul Godwin, Michael May, James Mulvenon, Michael Nacht, Robert S. Norris, Pief
Panofsky, Jonathan Pollack, Edward Steinfeld, and Michael Swaine.2 John D iamond, C hina Spy Furor Ma y Be Overreaction, Associat ed Press (AP), M ay 26,
1999.3 John M . Spratt, Jr., Keep the Facts of the C ox R eport in Perspective, Arms Control
Today(April/M ay 1999).4 Cox report, 4.5 Ibid., 234, footnot e 1.6 Ibid., 4.
7 M y tha nks to M IT professor Edw ard Steinfeld for these da ta .8 Cox report, 5.9 See, for example, Ellis Joffe, The Chinese Army after Mao(C ambridge: Ha rvard University
Press, 1987), 4862.10 Cox report, 10.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
39/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
40/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
41/104
41
42 Jiang Zemin, Report to the 15th Party Congress, Xinhua, September 21, 1997, in FBIS-
CHI-97-266 (September 23, 1997).43 Chi H aotian, Taking the Road of N ational D efense M odernization Which Conforms to
Chinas Na tiona l Conditions and Reflects the Characteristics of the TimesM y Understanding
Acquired from the Study of Comrade Jiang Zemins Expositions on the Relationship be-
tw een the Building of Na tiona l Defense and Economic Development, Q iushi[Seeking Trut h](April 1996), in FBIS-C H I-96-120. Cit ed in Frankenstein, C hina s Defense Industries, 31.44 See Zhu Yuli, Learning from the Thought o f D eng Xiaoping on M ilita ry-C ivilian Integra-
tion o f Industry, Q iushi[Seeking Truth], no . 17 (1 Sept. 1997): 1719, in FBIS-C H I-97-311
(November 7, 1997).45Junshi xueshu yanji u: hui gu yu zhanwang[M ilita ry a cademic research: R eview and pros-
pects] (Beijing: M ilitary Sciences Publishing H ouse, 1995) (junnei fax ing) [Internal military
circulation], 389. Emphasis mine.46 O n the development o f conversion in large a nd medium size defense enterprises, Junshi
Jingj i Yanji u[Military Economic Research] (February 1997): 14. Cited in Frankenstein,
C hinas Defense Industries, 33.
47 Pei Jiansheng, M arket solution eludes remote military -industria l complex, China D ailyBusiness Week ly, 612 November 1994, 7. Cited in ibid., 28.48 Q uotes from C hinese sources are M ilita ry O rganizes Transnat ional Enterprise G roup,
in FBIS-CH I, 9 December 1992, 33. Cited in ibid., 12; G u Jiany i, Junshi Jingji Ruogan
X ianshi Wenti Fenxi [On current problems in military economy], Junshi Jingji X ue[Mili-
ta ry Economic Studies] (June 1995): 3235. Cited in ibid., 12.49 See Frankenstein and G ill, Current a nd Future Cha llenges.50 Frankenstein, C hinas D efense Industries, 18.51 Cox report, 15.52 Testimony of Dr. Michael Pillsbury before the United States Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence, November 1997. Posted on the webpage of the U.S.-Asia Strategy Council:ht tp://w w w.a siast ra tegy.com/testimo ny_pillsbury.html.53 Co x report, 1718.54 Elsew here Frankenstein is only w illing to go as fa r a s to sta te that most a nalysts believe
that the real Chinese defense budget is considerably more than the official figureat least
double. See Frankenstein, Ch inas Military Industries, 14.55 See the CIA Wor ld Factbook 1998a t ht tp ://w w w.cia .go v/cia /pub lica tio ns/fa ctb oo k/
ch.html#mil.56 G overnment Accounting O ffice, National SecurityImpact of Chinas M ili tary M odern-
ization in t he Pacifi c Region. G AO/NSIAD-95-84 (June 1995) a t h ttp://w w w.fa s.org/irp/
ga o/nsi95084.ht m.57 IISS, World M ilit ary Balance1998/99 (1999), 297, t able 46.58 Xinhua , M arch 31, 1997, in BBC Summary of Worl d Broadcasts(April 7, 1997).59 Cox report, 17.60 See Shij ie zhuyao guojia zonghe guoli bij iao yanji u[Comparative research of the compre-
hensive national power of the major countries of the world] (Changsha: Hunan Publishing
H ouse, 1996), 69, 169.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
42/104
42
61 Cox report, 18.62National D efense Whit e Paper(Sta te Council Informa tion O ffice), July 1998, at htt p://
w w w.uic.edu/~ rod rigo/w hite_paper_98.htm.63 Cox report, 241, emphasis mine.64 Ibid., 69, emphasis mine.65 Ibid., 72, emphasis mine.66 Ibid., 84.67 Ibid., 73, emphasis mine.68 According to the Proto type Internat ional D at a C enter set up t o help monitor the C TBT,
and sponsored by the U.S. DoD Defense Threat Reduction Agency, there was no seismic
activity within the latitude and longitude parameters of the Lop Nortesting range (roughly41.141.8N and 88.288.9 E) from Chinas last test in 1996 through December 1998. See
the Reviewed Event Bu ll eti n(a list of g loba l seismic events) a t ht tp: //w w w.pid c.or g./
da ta prodbo x/prod.html. The Washington Timesclaims that an unnamed U.S. official said
tha t the Chinese might have conducted a large underground nuclear explosion tha t w as
carried out in a n evasive w ay by the PRC to a void internat ional detection at their test sitea t Lop N or in Xinjiang province sometime in the first half of J une 1999. See Bill Gertz and
Ro w an Scarboro ugh, Small Nuke Test? Washington Times, June 18, 1999, 9. However,
according to the Reviewed Event Bul letinno detecta ble seismic act ivity occurred in the first
two weeks of June within the latitude and longitude parameters of the Lop Nor testing
range. See also the Nuclear Explosions D at ab ase mainta ined by the Australian go vernment
a t ht tp: //w w w.a gso.gov.a u/info rma tio n/struct ure/isd/da ta ba se/nukexp_query.ht ml.69 The United States and Russia have conducted several subcritical tests since signing the
C TBT in 1996. For example, on t he U.S. subcritical test in July 1997 a t the Los Alamos test
site in N evada see http://w w w.a cronym. org.uk/17sub.htm. On the role of subcriticals in the
maintenance of U .S. nuclear w eapons see the testimony before the Sena te Subcommit tee on
Interna tion al Security, Proliferat ion a nd Federal Services, Oct ob er 27, 1997, at ht tp://
w w w.fa s.org/spp/sta rw ars/congress/1997_h/sh105-267.htm.70 Cox report, 61.71 Lew is and H ua, Chinas Ballistic M issile Programs, 11.72 Co x report, 192.73 The article cited w as mine. See Alastair Ia in Johnston, C hinas N ew O ld Thinking: The
Concept of Limited Deterrence, I nternati onal Securit y20, no . 3 (Winter 1995/96).74 Co x report, 192.75 Ibid., 193.76 Agence France-Presse, August 6, 1996. Most recently, perhaps partly in response to the
Cox report, the Chinese government again officially stated again that China would not use
nuclear w eapons aga inst Taiw an. A Foreign M inistry spokesperson stat ed: We w ill not be
the first to use nuclear weapons and will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-
w eapons countries and regions, let alone aga inst our Taiw an compatriots. C harles H utzler,
C hina Wont Use Nukes vs. Taiw an, Associat ed Press, Beijing, September 2, 1999.77 Banning Garrett and Bonnie Glaser, War and Peace: The Views fr om M oscow and Beij ing
(Berkeley, Calif.: Institute of International Studies, 1984), 126. One of the most thorough
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
43/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
44/104
44
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
45/104
45
A Critique of the Cox Report Allegations of Theft of Sensitive
U.S. Nuclear Weapons Information
W. K. H . Panofsky
1Factual Assessment: Nuclear Weapons
1.1 Context
The Cox Co mmission w as established in June 1998 by H ouse Speaker New t G ingrich pri-
marily to investigate the alleged security and corruption problems associated w ith the launching
of American satellites on Chinese rockets. The investigations were broadened in October
1998 to include alleged security prob lems at the U.S. nuclear w eapons labora tories resulting
in the alleged theft of nuclear-w eapons-relat ed informa tion by the Peoples Republic of China.
The commission released its report in highly cla ssified form in January 1999; public release
follow ed aft er an extensive debate as to w hat part s of the report should remain classified in
order to pro tect sources and method s of U. S. intelligence collection . Thus the commission
with its staff of about fifty individuals dedicated about four months to examining nuclear-
w eapons-related issues.
In ad dition t o t he report o f the C ox C ommission, t here have been numerous other recent
investigations of the alleged leakage of American nuclear-weapons-related information and
of the security ma nagement a t American nuclear w eapons labora tories. A committee for t he
Intelligence Community (IC), headed by Admiral David Jeremiah, completed its investiga-
tion in la te 1998 and an impact sta tement reflecting the alleged nuclear w eapons informa-
tion losses was issued by the Intelligence Community, also late in 1998. In addition, Presi-
dent Clinton chartered a subgroup of four individuals drawn from the Presidents Foreign
Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) to investigate the problems associated with security in
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
46/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
47/104
47
sources. In contra st, the impact report o f the Intelligence Communit y is much more cautious
in admitting ignorance abo ut deta ils of a lleged losses and abo ut the impact o f such losses on
the present and future performance of Chinese nuclear weapons systems. In this paper I will
critically confront the assertions in the Cox report concerning Chinese nuclear spying. I will
then examine the relevance of the alleged nuclear weapons information losses to U.S. na-
tional security. This approach raises both serious questions as to the factual basis for theextent of Chinese penetration as well as the significance of the losses alleged in the Cox
report.
The Cox Commission maint ains tha t C hinese intelligence-collection effo rts extend great ly
beyond t hose mana ged by the tw o established Chinese intelligence orga nizat ions. The named
agencies are the Ministry o f Stat e Security (MSS) and the G enera l Sta ffs M ilitary Int elli-
gence D epartment (MID ). The report co rrectly sta tes tha t C hinese military a tt achs are intel-
ligence officers but fails to state that U.S. military attachs at foreign (including Chinese)
U.S. consulates are employees of the DIA.
The Co x C ommission claims that the PRC is increasingly looking to PR C scholars w ho
remain in the United States as assets w ho ha ve developed a netwo rk of persona l conta cts that
can b e helpful to the PRC s search f or science and technology informa tion (Vol. 1, C h. 1, p.
41). Even Chinese dissidents w ho left for t he United Sta tes are designat ed as sleeper agents.The Co x C ommission report ma kes largely unsupported a llegat ions abo ut t heft of nuclear
w eapons information, but t he impact o f losses is either great ly oversta ted or not stated a t a ll.
From the point of view of U .S. nationa l security, answ ers to t he follow ing three questions are
crucial, but are not ad dressed in the C ox report:
1. What, if a ny, specific factua l informat ion ha s been compromised beyondwhat is publicly
known, and how important is it?
2. Is the alleged stolen, but no t publicly ava ilable informat ion of sufficient value to the
PRC to lead to new designs that can be fielded w ithout nuclear t ests, which China has
procla imed it w ill not conduct, considering its signa ture of the Comprehensive Test Ba n
Treaty?3. What impactw ould such weapo ns have on the nationa l security o f the United States?
The remainder of this section lists and comments on crucial statements in the Cox Com-
mission report.
A. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) has stolen design information on the United Statesmost advanced thermonuclear weapons. (Overview, p. ii)
For reasons noted a bove, it is extremely difficult t o judge the significance of a broa d sta te-
ment of t his kind. It is alleged t hat classified info rmation on some thermonuclear w eapons
has been transmitted to the PRC through channels not specified in the unclassified reportother than t he w alk-in agent. N o evidence is presented as to t he extent to w hich that
informat ion goes beyond tha t publicly a vailable, nor does the report give any indication a s
to the extent to which the transferred information has added to that developed by the Chi-
nese indigenously.3 Additionally, no comparison is given as to the relative success of the
diversion to the PRC relative to tha t t o ot her foreign countries.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
48/104
48
B. The stolen information includes classified information on seven U.S. thermonuclear war-heads, including every currently deployed thermonuclear warhead in the U.S. ballistic-mis-sile arsenal. (Overview, p. iii)
The report elaborates only on the W-88 and the W-70. These are discussed further below.
The report stat es w ithout either foundat ion or elabora tion tha t thefts have occurred inrelat ion to other w arheads deployed by the United Sta tes.
C. The stolen information also includes classified design information for an enhanced radia-tion weapon (commonly known as the neutron bomb), which neither the United States,nor any other nation, has yet deployed. (Overview, p. iii)
C hina t ested a n enhanced radia tion w eapon in 1988 but has no t deployed such a device. This
information was well known in the U.S. technical community. The United States tested sev-
eral versions of enhanced radiation weapons and, in contradiction to this statement, has
deployed the W-70 on the Lance short-range ballistic missile and has mounted an enhanced
rad iation w eapon on the Sprint ABM a tmospheric interceptor. D eployment w as restricted t othe continental United States. For reasons discussed separately, this so-called neutron bomb
lacks significant military utility. Therefore the relative extent to which the neutron bomb
developed, but n ot deployed, by C hina used indigenous ta lent or externally a cquired sources
is essentially irrelevant.
D. The PRC has obtained classified information on the following U.S. thermonuclear war-heads, as well as a number of associated reentry vehicles (the hardened shell that protects thethermonuclear warhead during reentry).
E. The Select Committee judges that the PRC will exploit elements of the stolen design
information on the PRCs next generation of thermonuclear weapons.(Overview, p. v)
No information is given which traces Chinas existing nuclear weapons, deployed or
undeployed, directly to identified U.S. classified nuclear weapons sources. It is presumed
tha t the PR C may be engaged in a process aimed at modernizing its nuclear forces. H ow ever,
the PRC ha s signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ba n Treaty (CTBT) and, notw ithsta nd-
ing the lack of ratification by the United States and the Peoples Republic of China, has
stated it will not test in the future as required by the Vienna Convention on the Law of
Treaties. It is therefore difficult to believe tha t it w ill deploy a next generation of thermo-
nuclear w eapons. New designs of the physics package w ithout nuclear testing are ex-
tremely difficult, if no t impossible. There is consensus within the U.S. nuclear w eapons com-
munity that no foreign country, including China, would develop and deploy new thermo-
nuclear weapons of designs entirely based on clandestinely obtained information. Thus thereis no w ay to judge the extent, should C hina field a new generat ion of t hermonuclear w eap-
ons, of the benefit derived from publicly available knowledge, indigenous design efforts, and
clandestinely obt ained informat ion.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
49/104
49
G. The stolen U.S. nuclear secrets give the PRC design information on thermonuclear weap-ons on a par with our own. (Overview, p. vi)
It is extremely unlikely that this statement is true. Current Chinese nuclear weapons designs
are considerab ly less advanced tha n tho se of t he United Sta tes measured by almost a ll avail-
able parameters. It is extremely unlikely that this situation will change drastically, in particu-lar in the absence of nuclear tests. It should be noted that the report maintains that PRC
penetration o f U. S. labs commenced in t he late 1970s. The modern W-88 w as t hen already
developed; the alleged W-88 theft w as therefore of already old U.S. technology. The con-
clusion that PRC design informa tion is on a pa r w ith our ow n is not credible considering
the characteristics of current Chinese weapons.
H. The Select Committee judges that elements of the stolen information on U.S. thermo-nuclear warhead designs will assist the PRC in building its next generation of mobile ICBMs,which may be tested this year. (Overview, p. vii)
A Chineseroad-mobile ICBM, the DF-31, has been initially tested this year. But it is ex-tremely unlikely tha t t he DF-31 w ill at the same time carry a new unt ested w arhead . D evel-
opment of a road-mobile missile would increase the survivability of Chinese land-based
nuclear forces, which in their present fixed-silo form could be targeted by the United States.
Subsidiary stat ements a re made by t he committee regard ing introduction o f small thermo-
nuclear w arheads witho ut a ny evidence tha t w eapons derived from t he stolen W-88 de-
sign will be carried by the delivery systems, in particular without nuclear tests.
I. The Select Committee judges that, if the PRC were successful in stealing nuclear test codes,computer models, and data from the United States, it could further accelerate its nucleardevelopment. (Overview, p. ix)
This statement is hypothetica l. Indeed high-performa nce computers couldaccelerate nuclear
w eapons development in C hina. While this may indeed b e true, it should be not ed t hat the
W-88, which is at this time the most modern warhead on the U.S. submarine fleet, was
developed using computers of much lower capacity than high-performance computers now
on t he open market. The w hole question a s to the extent t o w hich the export of high-perfor-
mance computers can be controlled in the present international markets is discussed in an-
other C ISAC report.4
J. In the near term, a PRC deployment of mobile thermonuclear weapons, or neutron bombs,based on stolen U.S. design information could have a significant effect on the regional bal-
ance of power. (Overview, p. x)
While this statement implies that the relative nuclear strategicbalance between China and
the United Sta tes is not a ffected by the alleged diversions, it states that the stolen informa-
tion could have significant impact on the regional balance. Extensively deployed mobile-
ba sed a nd survivable thermonuclear w eapo ns could indeed aff ect b oth strategic and regional
relations. The question of how the survivability of Chinese nuclear forces affects U.S. inter-
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
50/104
50
ests and nuclear stability is complex and needs discussion. Again, the question is ignored of
how new thermonuclear warheads could be developed in the absence of nuclear testing.
Moreover, as discussed in another section of this paper, the opinion is widely held that a
neutron bomb is not a weapon of significant value in tactical combat.
K. Despite repeated PRC thefts of the most sophisticated U.S. nuclear weapons technology,security at our national nuclear weapons laboratories does not meet even minimal stan-dards. (Overview, p. x)
L. Counterintelligence programs at the national weapons laboratories today fail to meeteven minimal standards. (Overview, p. xi)
This allegat ion is meaningless witho ut cont ext. In pa rticular, the term minimal sta nda rds
needs to be defined. Security at our national nuclear weapons labs is in fact high in many
aspects. There are effective guard forces, security clearance checks, automated gates, and so
for th. There is considerab le security a w areness. Counterintelligence programs exist but their
scope seems inadequate to meet the needs. There clearly have been security lapses and im-provements are needed, b ut the q uestion of w hat these are to b e is not addressed in t he Cox
report. M oreover, the question of how a system of security administra tion meeting the highest
standa rds can cover the vast number of people and volume of classified information a nd
materials without undue interference w ith the efficient performance of w ork is not a ddressed.
No te that classified design information o n nuclear w eapons is held not only at the nationa l
w eapons labora tories but is also w idely disseminat ed throughout t he nuclear w eapons com-
plex of the Department of Energy and throughout many parts of the Defense Department
and its contracto rs, in particular in respect to deployed w eapons systems. The Cox Co mmis-
sion does not address security outside the nuclear weapons labs.
Let me compare some of the statements made in the Cox Commission report with the
conclusions of the Intelligence Community on the impact of the alleged losses.The Cox C ommission stat es tha t the Peoples Republic of C hina ha s stolen classified
informat ion on a ll of the United States most a dvanced thermonuclear w eapons (O verview,
p. ii) and the PRC next generat ion of thermonuclear w eapons currently under development
w ill exploit elements of stolen design informat ion (Vol. 1, C h. 2, p. 61). In contrast, the
Intelligence Community sta tes: We cannot determine the full extent o f w eapons informa-
tion obtained, for example we do not know whether any weapon design documentation or
blueprints were acquired.
The Cox Co mmission report alleges that informat ion acq uired thro ugh spying has saved
the Peoples Republic of C hina y ears of effort (Vol. 1, C h. 2, p. 62, 73), but this conclusion
is not supported by evidence and not confirmed by the Intelligence Community. More spe-
cifically, the Intelligence Community concludes that amo ng espionage, conta ct w ith U.S.
and ot her count ries scientists, conferences and pub lications, unaut horized media disclosure,
declassified weapon information, and Chinese indigenous development, the relati ve contr i-
but ion of each cannot be determined. In contrast, t he Cox C ommission discusses only the
a lleged thefts and does not discuss the other sources of C hinese adva nces in nuclear w eapons
technology.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
51/104
51
1.3 Findings Concerning the Alleged Theft of Information on the W-70 and the W-88 andClassified Weapons Codes
The W-70 nuclear d evice exists in tw o versions, one of w hich is an enhanced ra dia tion
weapon. In turn, enhanced radiation weapons amplify the lethal flux of prompt radiation
w hile diminishing somew hat the effects of blast, thermal output, a nd delayed rad iation through
fa llout. The term enhanced ra diat ion can refer either to enhancement of the thermal x-rays of the device or to enhancement of the neutron flux (above 10 MeV) produced. En-
hanced rad iation w eapons amplifying the thermal x-ray flux w ere used by the United States
for the Spartan warhead, designed to intercept incoming missiles outside the atmosphere.
Enhanced radia tion w eapons using increased neutron fluxes are incorporated in a variant of
the W-70 which was deployed in the short-range U.S. Lance missile, and another in an
enhanced radiation warhead (W-66) was deployed in the atmospheric Sprint ABM intercep-
tor. The lat ter applicat ions are popularly designated by t he term neutron bo mb. As noted
ab ove, the Cox report sta tes, incorrectly, tha t [t]he U.S. ha s never deployed a neutron
w eapon (Vol. 1, Ch. 2, p. 61).
The United Sta tes did not d eploy enhanced neutron ra diat ion w eapons overseas a nd d is-
continued the U.S. deployment of the W-70 and any other version of enhanced radiationw eapons af ter it w as bro ad ly recognized t hat such systems lacked military utility. The adva n-
tage on the batt lefield claimed for the neutron bomb w as that its lethal rad ius w ould be
very sharply defined a nd t hat therefore collateral da mage effects associat ed w ith the use of
nuclear weapons could be minimized. The popular notion that neutron bombs would kill
people while leaving buildings standing is untrue. The neutron bomb confers no advantage
aga inst cities and ot her soft ta rgets. H igh-energy neutrons can penetra te heavy ra diat ion
shields. At best, it w as tho ught it could confer an a dvant age aga inst ta nks, destroying them
while not damaging neighboring villages. More detailed analyses taking into account vari-
ability of terrain and intervening absorbers indicated that broader claims were largely un-
founded. M oreover, rad iation a s a w eapon in combat is of dubious value since there is a w ide
range betw een a rad iation d ose which w ill eventually prove letha l and the dose required for
incapacitation.China first tested a neutron bomb in 1988 but never deployed such a weapon. Thus the
a lleged theft of classified informa tion related to the W-70 is essentia lly ir relevant to the
present or fut ure mil it ary postur e of China, eit her strategically or tactically.
The situation concerning the W-88 is more complex. The W-88 is the weapon deployed on
the U.S. missiles carried by the Trident submarines. It was designed about thirty years ago
but is regarded as a modern tw o-stage thermonuclear w eapon. The wa rheads of the Tri-
dent missile carry a number of slender reentry vehicles (M IRVs) w hich are designed fo r high
accuracy because of their relatively high weight-to-drag ratio. The W-88 in turn was de-
signed to fit into such slender ammunitions and to produce a relatively high yield-to-weight
ratio.
China tested a system exhibiting principles possibly similar to those incorporated in the
W-88 several years a go, b ut no evidence is given in any o f the reports tha t the design of t ha t
w eapon w as derived from informat ion stolen from the United States. Its system is believed
to b e larger than the W-88 and is not even remotely a copy o r a knock-off, to use Con-
gressman C ox s term, of the W-88.5
The evidence for the allegation that design-related information for the W-88 has been
stolen derives largely, if no t entirely, a ccording to the C ox report, from a Chinese w alk-in
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
52/104
52
agent who provided the CIA in 1995 with a classified PRC document which in turn refer-
ences classified U.S. design information relating to the W-88. The report does not provide
any evidence about w hat motivat ed the Chinese w alk-in to reveal the results of Chinese
espionage, w hich could in fa ct be considered incriminat ing to t he w alk-in agent. The
provenance and sponsorship of the a gent ha ve not been ma de clear. Ho w ever, w hat ever the
explanation for this somewhat bizarre episode may be, if indeed the PRC document wasgenuine and it included classified information about the W-88, and not just publicly avail-
able sensitive information, it would provide evidence that China did access U.S. classified
informat ion on t his wa rhead. N o source of the alleged leakage is given; in view of t he wide-
spread dissemination of information and widespread deployment of the W-88, the source of
the alleged leak has not been localized. In view of the above, some discussion on the poten-
tial impact of this episode is in order.
The present C hinese inventory of nuclear w eapons is estima ted to be:
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
53/104
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
54/104
54
It is extremely improbable that a foreign country would or even could copy a specific
design for which partial information was obtained through espionage but where no actual
drawings or prints were acquired. Rather, it is plausible that, if motivated, China could
improve its existing design by employing similar b asic design ideas a nd principles w ith this
information. The result could be a more compact small medium-yield thermonuclear war-
head. This in turn could be used in producing warheads for a multi-warhead missile eithernot individually targetable (MRV) or multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles
(MIRV).
China has neither developed nor deployed multiple warhead missiles. It is of course not
know n w hat China w ill do in the future, but one can conclude that a M IRV-capable missile
could not offer any significant strategic advantage to China in relationship to the United
States in the foreseeab le future. Let me explain the ba sis for this stat ement.
At this time China ha s only about tw enty long-range deliverab le missiles, and that number
is unlikely to more than double within the next decade. China is the only nation among the
declared nuclear w eapons stat es that ha s officially a dopted a no first use policy, tha t is a
policy under which nuclear weapons would be used only after attack against China with
nuclear weapons by others. In its relationship to the United States this is the only policy
China could, as a practical matter, adopt, since the United States has many thousands ofnuclear warheads which could be directed against China. Thus, vis--vis the United States
China can maintain only a second-strike posture as a deterrent since for decades to come it
could no t consider a preemptive nuclear strike under a ny circumstances.
Let us discuss in further detail how the strategic nuclear relationship betw een the United
States and China might be affected if China should decide to MIRV its long-range missiles
capable of reaching the United States. Let us assume tha t for reasons noted above C hina w ill
continue to proclaim, a nd a dhere to, its no first use posture.
Since, predictably, the number of China s missiles capable of reaching the United States
w ill remain sma ll, MIRVing these missiles could enable China to t hreaten a la rger number of
retaliatory targets in the United States. Whether or not that is an advantage is arguable.
As a simple calculat ion
6
taking into account the damage versus yield relationship againstsoft ta rgets and the loss in tota l yield resulting from fractionating the payloa d, to tal damage
expectancy is reducedby MIRVing the available payload. On the other hand, MIRVing
generates a t hreat aga inst a larger number of retaliatory targets and t his might be a barga in-
ing or prestige advantage in a situation of rising tension.
MIRVing its long-range missiles would result in an increased demand on China s weap-
ons-usable fissile materials where China may face some limits. MIRV d land-based missiles
w ould ma ke these a higher-value target to preemptive at tack unless they a re survivably based
i.e., ma de land-mobile. N ote that at this time C hina has d eployed only one SLBM submarine
carrying medium-range missiles and appears to have encountered significant difficulties with
this system. Thus a significant C hinese sea-based reta liato ry fo rce carrying M IRVd strategic
missiles is not expected in the foreseeable future.
Another motivation for a potential Chinese MIRVd strategic force is its ability to pen-etrate the proposed U.S. na tiona l missile defense (NM D ). Ho w ever, this can a lso be achieved
by other cheaper penetration aids such as balloons.
While the above arguments each have limited merit, they partially offset one another and
at any rat e have only minor leverage on t he U.S.-C hina stra tegic relatio nship. Thus the only
real advanta ge of more compact w arheads to China w ould be that, given successful develop-
ment of the associated missile system, they could lead to a more survivable land-mobile
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
55/104
55
deployment. This is not a threat t o the United Stat es but provides for a n increase in stra tegic
stability. In summary, even a worst-case projection of the consequence of the alleged com-
promise of the W-88 design would not be a matter of significant military concern to the
United States.
The Rudman report complains that the principal governmental investigations of the al-
leged leakage of nuclear w eapons informa tion ha ve concentra ted a lmost entirely on the W-70and W-88. The allegat ions, and by implication the informa tion tra nsmitted by the walk-in
C hinese agent,7 cover some unspecified classified informa tion w hich does not extend to draw -
ings and complete documents. We do not know the extent to which this information goes
beyond w hat is availab le publicly from unclassified sources, such as the weapo ns design dat a
books published by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). Therefore the extent,
let alone the significance, of these additional a lleged informa tion t ransmissions is impossible
to assess from the unclassified report s, but t he abo ve discussion indicates that the impact on
U .S. securit y is str ictl y limi ted.
Similarly, the importance of the much-publicized episode of the Los Alamos scientist Wen
Ho Lee is difficult to assess. Lee was removed from his job on grounds that he transcribed
classified-w eapons-related computer codes to an unclassified system. N o explanat ion is given
for why he did this and no evidence seems to indicate that the information once transcribedw as in fa ct made a vailable to a foreign country. Lee has not been charged w ith any crime.
The codes in question are the so-called legacy codes which contain information about the
physical processes relevant to the behavior of nuclear w eapons such as high-pressure hydro-
dynamics, radiation transport, etc. They also contain historical information. Clearly such
codes, should they be made available to a foreign country, could add to the basic knowledge
within that country relating to weapons physics design, but the usefulness of that knowledge
clearly depends on the level of erudition already existing there. It is dubious tha t these codes
w ould have materially a ided the C hinese nuclear w eapons program. China has had a highly
competent nuclear w eapons program, and w e should note again tha t it ha s nuclear w eapons
experience of thirty-five years. Such codes wo uld be q uite difficult to interpret but possibly
could assist the Chinese in general background informat ion. They would not be sufficient tolead to a new design, especially not one that could be deployed without tests.
The Cox report also alleges (Vol. 1, Ch. 2, p. 85) that certain U.S. named codes (the
M C NPT, the DOT 3.5, and the NJO YC codes) have been acq uired. Ho w ever, these codes
are open reactor engineering codes available worldwide.
The utility of such codes, either of the alleged stolen classified variety or the identified
openly available material, is of very limited value to a foreign nuclear weapons country.
Classified codes are very specialized, containing many empirical entries and normalizations
which limit their utility to particular designs.
The Cox report a lleges tha t the stolen information w ould make it possible for China t o
develop new nuclear w eapons w hich could enter its stockpile w ithout testing, alleging that it
could not do so otherw ise. This claim is strongly cont rad icted by nuclear w eapons designers
in the United States. In particular, Harold Agnew, a former director of Los Alamos, hasstated categorically that China could not develop new nuclear weapons with or without
testing a nuclear device ba sed on leaked nuclear w eapons informa tion. H e points out tha t no
responsible designer w ould stockpile a w eapon designed from f oreign codes; such codes are
by necessity incomplete and Agnew notes that they mayeven contain deliberate viruses
w hich w ould ma ke the resulting product defective if designed f rom such codes.8
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
56/104
56
Whatever the qua ntity and qua lity of nuclear w eapons design information w hich the Chi-
nese may ha ve derived by espiona ge, such designs wo uld have to be developed, w eaponized,
and produced, and, depending on their level of sophistication, would have to be tested.
Therefore the optimum protection a gainst C hina effectively utilizing such informat ion w ould
be the coming into force of the CTBT. While there is not universal agreement on this point,
American w eapons designers generally concur that nuclear w eapons ba sed on existing phys-ics packagescan be maintained safely and reliably under an adequate Stockpile Stewardship
Program (see section 1.5). But a ll agree, how ever, tha t a ny designs incorpora ting new physics
packages should not be stockpiled without nuclear weapons tests.
1.4 Comments on the Criticisms of the Security and Counterintelligence Process of DOE AsApplied to the National Labs
The principal but not the only focus of protecting nuclear-weapons-related information to-
day should rightly be to prevent its release to non-nuclear-weapons states in order to keep
the lid on nuclear weapons proliferation; that is, to limit the number of undeclared or de-
clared nuclear w eapons states. Thus it remains essential t o U.S. national security to mainta in
highly secure ba rriers aro und nuclear w eapons design informa tion a nd to erect the strongestpossible safeguards to protect nuclear-w eapons-usable mat erials.
These conclusions are based on the overwhelming military power of the United States in
both conventional and nuclear weapons. The United States has a great deal to lose should
nuclear weapons proliferate further, but its security is very unlikely to be significantly af-
fected by changes in the nuclear posture of the minor nuclear weapons states (China, the
United Kingdo m, a nd France). The dama ge assessment o f the Intelligence Community ra ther
than the Cox report provides a guide in judging the military significance of the losses that
may have occurred. The limits on the impact of the alleged losses, even under worst-case
assumptions, are discussed in the previous section.
Ho w are we to judge the crit icisms of t he securit y and counteri ntelli gence process of DO E
as applied to t he national labs, in light of the significance of the actual losses, in compari-
son with the opportunities that the American system of open scientific inquiry, including
involvement with foreign scientists, offers to the United States?
The Rudma n report provides an extensive summary of the vulnerab ilities of t he U.S. labs
to foreign penetration which have existed for several decades and which exist today. It cites
a dismal record of repeated criticisms of DOE s security a nd counterintelligence administra -
tion from a variety of sources: reviews internal to DOE, congressional reviews, reviews by
the G eneral Accounting Of fice, and review s by ad hoc bo dies. The commo n judgment of the
Rudman panel is that the impact of these reviews on the implementation of actual security
measures has largely been short -range and tha t many of them have been ignored. The Rudman
panel traces this resistance to change to a number of major structural defects within DOE
and to t he general arroga nce of the scientific and technical community concerned in rejecting
external oversight. Thus the Rudma n panel in purple prose proposes a major reorganiza-tion in w hich the ad ministration o f all na tiona l security activities currently under the aegis of
D O E w ould be incorporated into either a n a utonomous agency reporting to the president or
a semiautonomous agency under a new undersecretary reporting directly to the secretary of
energy. The current political discussions involving DOE, the Congress, and the president s
off ice focus on the latt er alternat ive, but the outcome o f these discussions remains uncerta in
at the time of t his writing.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
57/104
57
To this w riter there is considerable at tra ction to incorpora ting the security functions of
DOE (defense programs, nonproliferation and national security, and fissile materials man-
agement, a s w ell as counterintelligence and security o versight) into a division o f D OE under
direct-line responsibility of an undersecretary. The Rudma n pa nel outlines many reasons in
support o f such a reorganization. O ne very important by-product of compartmentalizing the
security functions w ithin DOE is that this decreases the impact o f tighter security restrictionsw ithin those parts of D OE w here security restrictions are needed in relatio n to tho se part s of
DOE where they are not. One of the serious problems that continues to beset current DOE
practices is in the formulation of DOE-wide regulations, orders, and other controls. The
rules as fo rmulated t end to b e overbroa d: w hile correcting alleged deficiencies in one sector
of the department, burdensome rules are generated w hich impede efficiency in a nother.
In the past DOE has gone through a series of alarms leading to preoccupation with
diverse administra tive deficiencies, such as those in operat iona l reliab ility, q uality a ssurance,
environment, safety and health, and now security. Once deficiencies in each one of these
cases w ere recognized, the general response w as to creat e new orga nizational units, report-
ing to the highest level and specifically dedicated to managing the aforementioned topics.
Yet each one of these items should be an integral part of the culture which is dedicated to
carrying out the technical and scientific w ork of the depart ment, rather than being delegatedto a separate organizational unit. Indeed specified organizations dealing with each one of the
items cited can be very useful if they provide servicessuch as specialized expertise and re-
sources to each operating-line unit and if they ha ve stop w ork or other policing responsi-
bilities to respond to crucial emergencies. But they should not d il ute the li ne responsibil it ies
of the functional operating units.
Imposing czars to a ssume control over such items, be they qua lity assurance, safety and
health, or security, tends to dilute the responsibility of each operating-line department. In
addition, as a practical matter such central control is impossible to exercise efficiently since
the technical substances of the activities to be controlled are extremely diverse. A security
czar as recently established in DO E reports directly to t he secreta ry, w hile of ficers respon-
sible for bo th military and nonmilitaryprograms
report
through channels.
Thus the checksand ba lances between the program needs a nd security o bjectives become inoperative. There-
fore security by achievement, which has served U.S. military power well in the past, takes
second seat to security by restriction, which ultimately is a perishable commodity. The
Rudman recommendations are reasonable and could be implemented without disturbing
significantly the high quality of the work of the parts of DOE that would be affected (and
w hose scientific and technical q uality t he Rudma n panel praises in the strongest terms).
The question remains whether it ma kes sense to reform one sector of D OE activities w hile
many identified defects apply to the department across the board. That pattern is indeed
confusing and the reporting relationships which the Rudman panel decries as they apply to
the defense sector o f D O E also apply to a varying extent to most if not all D OE a ctivities.
For instance, the question raised by the Rudma n panel w hether the Field O perations of fices,
which were created early by the Atomic Energy Commission, retain value today is a DOE-wide issue. Discussing that question is not part of our task today.
There is great inconsistency in the management of many of DOE s activities, many of
w hich have a historical ba sis tha t is no longer valid. The administrat ion of activities directly
related to energy is disjointed, with nuclear energy, fossil energy, and renewables adminis-
tered through completely diff erent cha nnels. This problem is justly at tributed in t he Rudma n
report to the fact that mo st of the activity of the DO E originated from t he fusion of a la rge
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
58/104
58
variety of tasks whose responsibility was spread widely across the federal government. Suc-
cessive administra tions a nd energy secreta ries have not succeeded in organizing these diverse
activities into a logical pattern with clearly defined lines of authority and responsibility.
Thus a principal q uestion w hich w ill arise sooner or lat er is whether it makes sense to create
w hat the Rudman panel designates as an undersecretary for stew ardship and w hether there
should not also be other undersecretaries for science and energy and nuclear regulationinstead of a single chief undersecretary as exists today. In fact, a matter not addressed by
the Rudma n panel is the relationship of the new undersecretary fo r nuclear stew ard ship to
the principal undersecretary.
Pending legislatio n9 provides for a new undersecreta ry to discharge responsibility over the
military activities of DOE but does not address most of the other problems addressed by the
Rudma n panel.
Let me add a very abbreviated outline of the elements of American security systems de-
signed to pro tect informat ion w hose release w ould da mage the nationa l security. Such infor-
mation is classifiedin the United States, w ith the level of classificatio n related to the level of
dama ge which w ould a ccrue to the national security if the information w ere compromised.
Protection of information suffers from a basic tension. In a democracy the public has a
right t o be kept informed o n a ctivities of government. This right is enshrined in the Freedomof Information Act, which obligates the federal government to release information bearing
on its actions on request, w ith the exception of informa tion listed in designat ed categories of
w hich classification is one. Thus classification must ba lance the da mage to nat iona l security
w hich w ould result from release of informat ion w ith the publics right to know and w ith the
productivity gains derived from free communication.
The management of classified information implies that several tens of thousands of gov-
ernment employees and cont racto rs are cleared to receive such informa tion, provided they
have a need to know such information in connection with their jobs. Once individuals
have received clearance, they have to be trustedto handle such informa tion in a ccorda nce
w ith regulations w hich govern the handling and storage of classified informa tion and mate-
rials. Technical ba rriers are erected tha t impede unautho rized tra nsfers; such ba rriers makeunauthorized transfers more difficult and can prevent losses by inadvertence. Such barriers
cannot in themselves, how ever, be sufficient to tot ally prevent unauthor ized tr ansfers. After
all, much classified information is contained within the brains of cleared individuals and
thus control of information must always to some extent rely on trust, aside from manage-
ment of materials, documents, and computer programs.
The Cox report, and to a lesser extent the Rudman report, fails to make an adequate
distinction between the purpose of security measures designed to deny opportunitiesfo r
harmful information transfers and those designed to interdictor preventsuch informa tion
tra nsfers. The Rudma n report specifically decries tha t up to this time DO E has no t succeeded
in erecting impenetra ble ba rriers between classified computer netw orks a nd unclassified sys-
tems. While indeed such firewall barriers are highly desirable, they can only deny oppor-
tunity for t ransfer. If t here is a wi l lto divert the relevant information, however, be it carriedon a computer disk, on the written page, or within the head of a cleared individual, transfer
cannot be prevented.
The clearance process is designed to screen out individuals who are likely to give classified
information away. The process cannot be made infallible. During the Cold War, investiga-
tion fo cused on the candidates ideology, principally communist sympa thies and associat ion,
foreign a llegiances of the candida te or his family, and on dependents in the Soviet Union. In
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
59/104
59
addition such factors as drug and alcohol use, heavy indebtedness, and others that might
make the candida te subject to blackma il w ere considered. Toda y ideology ha s lost much of
its former relevance while the other factors remain important. However, the future suscepti-
bil ityof the candidate individuals to the lure of money is difficult to predict, as the serious
security breach in the CIA Ames case and other recent cases involving cleared native-born
Americans document.There is, ho w ever, ano ther problem: pro tection o f truly sensitive nuclear-w eapons-related
information is mad e much more difficult by classifying too large a volume of informa tion of
lesser need of protection, and by constantly introducing new areas of restriction, such as
unclassified nuclear information, unclassified naval propulsion information, sensitive in-
forma tion, a nd so fo rth. This may mean that the sheer volume of informat ion w hich must be
protected is becoming so large that even the kind of reorganiza tion propo sed by the Rudman
panel may not in fact prove more successful than previous attempts at reform.
Administration of classified information is the job of a large bureaucracy, considering the
number of people holding clearances and considering the fa ct tha t the Department of Energy
has custody o f more than 200 million pa ges of cla ssified documents, with the inventory held
by t he Defense D epartment being much larger. M oreover, classified info rmat ion in the com-
puter systems of D O E is very great, a nd in the interest of efficiency much of t his informat ionis being managed to permit easy retrieval. Such centra lization of t he computer systems has a t
the same time increased the vulnerability of such systems since access at a single point can
yield a large amount of data.
Accusations of transfers of computer data from classified to unclassified systems have
been made against a number of individuals in a variety of contexts. The motivation for such
transfers can simply be a matter of convenience associated with the difficulties in operating
the classified systems. Whether espionage plays a role in such transfers is a matter which
only a detailed case-by-case investiga tion can determine.
Indeed, d eficiencies in the security management by D OE of classified mat erials have been
identified over many years and covering several administrations, but perf ection in achieving
tr ue securi ty can only be a goal. The basic physical principles of nuclear and thermonuclearexplosives are well known. Much information has been declassified and has been collected
in summary w orks, nota bly in the publications of the NR D C. Thus, w hatever improvements
in guarding classified materials can and should be made, one must recognize that classified
informa tion ultima tely w ill become publicly ava ilable either through leakage or independent
rediscovery. Thus the security of the nat ion must be achieved by a ba lance betw een security
by restriction and security by achievement.
To summarize, many reviews o f the informat ion-contro l systems of t he government, in
part icular t hose by panels of the Na tiona l Academy o f Sciences, have concluded tha t simply
bolstering the security walls around classified information can only be a temporary remedy.
The uniform position o f such review ing bod ies, including D OEs Fundamental C lassification
Review Group of 19951996 chaired by Albert Narath, has been that DOE should build
veryhigh fences around t ru ly sensit ive info rmationwhile resisting the understandable bu-reaucratic forces which urge building diffuse restraints around vast volumes of informa-
tion.
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
60/104
60
1.5 International Contacts of the United States Laboratories
In summary, the fo regoing analysis clearly indicates that there have been deficiencies in the
security barriers at institutions under control of DOE designed to impede transfer of sensi-
tive information to other countries and probably as well in the security measures by the
many other agencies of government having custody over such information. While the man-
agement of security can certa inly be improved, how ever, the impact on na tiona l security ofpast transgressions appears marginal and should not be a cause for the type of politically
exploited spy hysteria w hich we are seeing today. But, unfortunat ely, the situat ion is wo rse.
The preoccupation with security induced by the Cox Commission report has led to a stam-
pede tow ard ill-considered measures which ma y in themselves damage na tiona l security to a
greater extent than the alleged spying could do.
Let me enumerat e such negat ive impacts o n: (1) The lab-to-lab progra ms conducted by the
national nuclear weapons labs and (2) the Stockpile Stewardship Program.
(1) One o f the principal security t hreats fa cing this country is the possible leaka ge of nuclear-
w eapons-usable materials from the countries of the former Soviet Union and the emigra tion
of talent possessing nuclear-weapons-related information to countries potentially hostile to
the United States. It can be reasonably concluded that preventive defense stemming such
an outflow of ma terial and t alent is much more cost effective in aiding U.S. nat iona l security
tha n defending against t he possible consequences of such tra nsfers to hostile countries. Thus
a substantial number of programs have been developed which share the common goal of
assisting the countries of the former Soviet Unio n in strengthening their ma terials protection,
control, and accounting (MPC&A) over their weapons-usable materials and in preventing
the brain drain of scientific and engineering talent from the states of the former Soviet
Union into potentially hostile employment. These programs, which include the substantial
effort under the aegis of the Department of Defense called Cooperative Threat Reduction
(CTR), the various centers designed to give financial support to scientists of the former
Soviet Union by employing them in constructive civilian enterprises, cooperative efforts trans-
ferring highly enriched uranium to the United States, and working with countries of theformer Soviet Union in reducing their plutonium stockpiles, are all essential but cannot be
discussed here in detail.
One of the most immediately successful efforts of these programs has been the lab-to-
lab program under which scientists at American nuclear weapons laboratories collaborate
with their counterparts in the countries of the former Soviet Union, and to a lesser extent
with Chinese labs, in strengthening the safeguards against diversion of weapons-usable ma-
terials and in improving the accounting for such materials to make control possible.
H istorically during the C old War, nuclear w eapons and nuclear w eapons materials control
in the Soviet Union were exercised through elite troops acting as guards and couriers for
such materials. At t he same time the Soviet U nion d id no t use technical surveillance instru-
mentation to a significant extent and its standards of accounting were low. With the end of
the Cold War the morale of the former elite guards has deteriorated; some of them are
unpaid and some lack the most elementary comforts. In view of this fact, the previously
neglected efforts to develop and deploy instrumentation for materials protection and im-
provements in accounting have moved to the forefront; U.S. assistance toward this end is
clearly valuable to U.S. security. Such work has been carried out under the aegis of the lab-
to-lab progra m sponsored by DO E, w hich has had substantia l positive results. This is not the
-
7/28/2019 Cox Committee Report an Assessment
61/104
61
place for a detailed review of this program. Suffice it to say that roughly half of the institu-
tions in the former Soviet Union where weapons-usable materials are stored have been up-
graded in their MPC&A activities under this program, although the number of actual build-
ings w hich have been improved is a smaller fraction. Accounting is much improved, a nd thus
far no documented examples of actual loss of weapons-usable materials sufficient to make
nuclear weapons have been recorded.A large amount of work along these lines remains to be done. First, the task is far from
completed. Second, the problem of mainta ining the new instrumentat ion by the host countrys
personnel remains a considerab le challenge. Finally, the manufa cture of the instrumentatio n
should be transferred to indigenous sources. All of these goals require continued or even
expanded lab-to-lab contact. This in turn requires frequent visits by Russian, Chinese, and
other nationals to U.S. weapons labs. Impeding such visits or even reducing their frequency
would have a highly detrimental effect.
(2) O f even greater importance is the q uality o f U.S. personnel at the nat iona l w eapons labs.
These labs continue to share the largest part of the responsibility for maintaining the safety
and reliability of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. This responsibility is managed under
the Stockpile Stewa rdship Progra m, w hich has two major components. The first component,which may be called core stewardship, involves continuous inspection and some disas-
sembly and reassembly of nuclear weapons designed to uncover and remedy defects. Part of
this program is testing of the non-nuclear components, including such methods as high-
speed rad iogra phy of the high-explosive assembly, testing of the firing and fuzing and o ther
control machinery, and so called subcritical tests. These are designed to pinpoint missing
information about the behavior of nuclear materials at high pressures without release of
nuclear energy. Some of the importa nce of t hese activities has been increased by the cessation
of nuclear w eapons tests, but most such activities are made necessary simply by the aging of
the nuclear w eapons stockpile. For instance, metallurgical changes take place in plutonium
over time due simply to the effects caused by t he accumulat ion o f helium engendered by the
alpha decay of plutonium. Thus the program also includes remanufacture.
The second part of the Stockpile Stewardship Program is dedicated to miscellaneous ac-
tivities which have relevance to the physics of nuclear weapons and to nuclear weapons
design but w hich are carried out largely to mainta in an interesting and creative environment
for nuclear weapons scientists at the national labs.
To sa tisfy this dua l objective of the Stockpile Stew ard ship Progra m it is necessary to re-