covid war, up model
TRANSCRIPT
Covid War, UP Model:Strategies, Tactics & Impact
Prof. Manindra Agrawal and Team, IIT Kanpur
The UP Model
1. Ensure Livelihood
All citizens with special care of No
adverse impact on marginalized and migrant workers
3. Prevent Spread
Save lives by avoiding uncontrolled
spread of pandemic in society
4. Augment Healthcare
Capacity enhancement to cope
with additional pandemic load
2. Sustain Economy
Maintain economic growth while
combating pandemic simultaneously
Continuing economic activities risks rapid pandemic
spread resulting in collapse of healthcare infrastructure
Hence (3) & (4) must be executed well
Modeling Pandemic in Uttar Pradesh
Contact RateReach
Detection Ratio
SUTRA Model
SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and
Removed Approach) is a mathematical model created to model the progression of Covid-19.
It estimates from the daily reported cases, values of parameters governing the pandemic and number of undetected cases.
Contact Rate (β)
Measures how fast the
pandemic is spreading in a region.
Reach (ρ)
Measures the percentage of
population over which the pandemic is active.
Detection Ratio (ε)
Measures the ratio between
detected and total – including detected and undetected –active cases.
Livelihood of Migrant & Marginalized Population
Mobility Sustenance
Ensure mobility
Free bus services for
returning workers
Dedicated Shramik
trains in partnership with Indian Railways
Ambulance services for sick workers
Enable support
Provide 15D and 7D
sustenance package
Immediate Transfer
of Rs.1000 for migrant workers
DBT of Rs. 1000 for marginalized
sections of society
Employment
Provide jobs
Skill mapping of all
returned workers
Use of MGNREGA
for job creation
Local self-governing bodies utilized worker database for
employment cards
“Unemployment
rate of UP during
the second wave
was around half
of the national
rate.”
Source: Prowess monthly employment database
Unemployment Rates
Healthcare Manpower & Infrastructure
TTTT team per 1000 people
Two ASHAs, One Anganwadi worker,
One Anganwadi helper
Capacity building
Extensive training from UPTSU,
WHO, UNICEF, etc. on all major aspects of Covid-19
Safety and incentives
Insurance schemes like PMJJBY,
PMSBY, AKBY, etc.
25% of salary as incentive by GoUP
Test, Track, Treat, Tackle (TTTT) Approach
Healthcare Infrastructure
Largest network of hospitals,
ICU beds, Ventilators, and dedicated Covid-19 beds in India
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
4/19/2021 4/24/2021 4/29/2021 5/4/2021 5/9/2021 5/14/2021 5/19/2021 5/24/2021
Ox
yg
en
in
MT
Date
Supply Demand
Oxygen Management
Key Aspects
• Daily demand of 380MT till 12 April-21 jumped to 840MT by 25 April-21 (2.5 times in 13 days).
• First state to airlift empty tankers with help from IAF to reduce turn-around time (10hr saving).
• 57 dedicated Oxygen Express by IR carried a total of 3684 MT Oxygen.
• OxyTracker monitored real-time position of 133 Oxygen tankers
• Stringent Oxygen Audit saved around 30MT Oxygen per day
UP’s Chasing the Infection Strategy
0.10 0.34
0.65
1.43
2.092.93 2.05
2.01
4.13
4.34
2.90
2.46
4.623.59
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
3/30/2020 5/29/2020 7/28/2020 9/26/2020 11/25/2020 1/24/2021 3/25/2021 5/24/2021 7/23/2021 9/21/2021Active
Cases (
% o
f popula
tion)
Date
Kerala: NTPR
5.57
11.72
3.95 2.50
2.08
4.56 4.844.26
3.04
3.896.39
1.86
1.09
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
4/1/2020 6/30/2020 9/28/2020 12/27/2020 3/27/2021 6/25/2021 9/23/2021
Active
Cases (
% of
popula
tion)
Date
Maharashtra: NTPR
0.43
0.69
0.42
0.85
1.80
1.90
0.83
0.11
0.25 0.500.32
0.38
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
6/1/2020 7/31/2020 9/29/2020 11/28/2020 1/27/2021 3/28/2021 5/27/2021 7/26/2021 9/24/2021
Active
Cases (
% o
f popula
tion)
Date
UP: Ratio of TPR and Percentage of Active Cases
ContainingThe Spread
Without containment measures the peak would have been
more than 70,000 cases per day.
The timing of the restriction measures was near optimal.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2/1/2021 3/3/2021 4/2/2021 5/2/2021 6/1/2021
Infe
cti
on
s
Date
UP: 7-day Average of Daily New Infections
Model Computed Actual β = 0.59
Assam M
Delhi M
GujaratHaryana
Karnataka M
Maharashtra M
Madhya Pradesh
Rajasthan M Tamil Nadu M
Telangana M
Bihar
Punjab
Uttar Pradesh
Andhra PradeshChhattisgarhKerala
West BengalAssam S
Delhi S
Karnataka S
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Rajasthan S0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 5 10 15 20 25
Adva
ncin
g m
easure
s t
o d
ecre
ase p
eak b
y 1
0%
(in d
ays)
Delaying measures to increase peak by 10% (in days)
Timing of Restriction Measures
Ongoing Efforts
Commissioning of 238 PSA plants have
resulted in 87,174 oxygen beds. All 549 PSA plants will result in more than 1.5L Oxygen
beds – largest in India
Oxygen Infrastructure Improvement
Extensive testing continues and the 70,000
surveillance committees are active – early detection of any new wave.
Continuing Testing Regime
Already 11Cr. Doses administered (40.3%
with one dose) and 11% fully vaccinated –should speed up.
Vaccination Drive
Planned 6700 ICU beds for children of
which around 97% is already setup should help with third wave
Pediatric Facilities
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